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→‎Public opinion: Amended to reflect what the sources say. I have moved the description of Hinterlaces to the end as putting the description before the polling produces a long and clumsy sentence. The source only describes Oscar Schemel as the head although elsewhere he is described as director. I have not seen owner mentioned but that is possible. He seems to be a member of the Assembly though neither source mentions this. He is described elsewhere as on the pro-business side of the CA.
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A telephone survey of 999 Venezuelans by Hercon between 25 and 30 January showed that 81.9% of respondents recognized Guaidó as president, 13.4% responded stating Maduro was president and 4.6% were undecided.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.lapatilla.com/2019/01/31/819-de-venezolanos-reconoce-a-juan-guaido-como-primer-mandatario/|title=81,9 % de venezolanos reconoce a Juan Guaidó como presidente de Venezuela (Encuesta Hercón)|last=|first=|date=2019-01-31|website=[[La Patilla]]|language=es-ES|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=2019-01-31}}</ref>
A telephone survey of 999 Venezuelans by Hercon between 25 and 30 January showed that 81.9% of respondents recognized Guaidó as president, 13.4% responded stating Maduro was president and 4.6% were undecided.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.lapatilla.com/2019/01/31/819-de-venezolanos-reconoce-a-juan-guaido-como-primer-mandatario/|title=81,9 % de venezolanos reconoce a Juan Guaidó como presidente de Venezuela (Encuesta Hercón)|last=|first=|date=2019-01-31|website=[[La Patilla]]|language=es-ES|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=2019-01-31}}</ref>


A January 2019 poll by Hinterlaces, which is owned and run by {{ill|Oscar Schemel|es}}, a member of the National Constituent Assembly, and accused by international press and analytical bodies of being selective to show pro-Maduro bias,<ref name=reuters>{{Cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-chavez-idUSBRE91P0XN20130226|title=Most Venezuelans think Chavez will recover: poll|last=|first=|date=2013-02-26|work=[[Reuters]]|access-date=2019-01-31|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13828|title=Venezuela’s Highly Unusual Presidential Election|last=[[Gregory Wilpert|Wilpert]]|first=[[Gregory Wilpert|Gregory]]|date=2018-05-19|website=[[Venezuelanalysis.com]]|language=en|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=2019-01-31|quote=Pro-government pollsters, such as the company Hinterlaces give Maduro a 17 point advantage}}</ref> reported that 86% of Venezuelans would oppose a military intervention, that 81% oppose US sanctions, and that 84% support dialogue to end the crisis.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.thecanary.co/global/world-news/2019/01/29/new-poll-shows-venezuelans-overwhelmingly-oppose-military-intervention-and-us-sanctions/|title=New poll shows Venezuelans overwhelmingly oppose military intervention and US sanctions|date=29 January 2019|website=The Canary}}</ref> Another Hinterlaces poll, of 1580 households, reported that 81% did not know who Guaidó was, with 11% having a favorable opinion of him and 5% having an unfavorable opinion; 3% had no opinion.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://vtv.gob.ve/hinterlaces-81-venezolanos-desconoce-a-guaido-como-lider-politico/|title=Hinterlaces: 81% de los venezolanos desconoce a Guaidó como líder político|date=20 January 2019}}</ref>{{Better source|date=January 2019}}
A January 2019 poll by Hinterlaces reported that 86% of Venezuelans would oppose a military intervention, that 81% oppose US sanctions, and that 84% support dialogue to end the crisis.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.thecanary.co/global/world-news/2019/01/29/new-poll-shows-venezuelans-overwhelmingly-oppose-military-intervention-and-us-sanctions/|title=New poll shows Venezuelans overwhelmingly oppose military intervention and US sanctions|date=29 January 2019|website=The Canary}}</ref> Another Hinterlaces poll, of 1580 households, reported that 81% did not know who Guaidó was, with 11% having a favorable opinion of him and 5% having an unfavorable opinion; 3% had no opinion.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://vtv.gob.ve/hinterlaces-81-venezolanos-desconoce-a-guaido-como-lider-politico/|title=Hinterlaces: 81% de los venezolanos desconoce a Guaidó como líder político|date=20 January 2019}}</ref>{{Better source|date=January 2019}} Hinterlaces is headed by {{ill|Oscar Schemel|es}}, a member of the National Constituent Assembly, and was described as pro-government by the opposition in 2013 and by Venezuelanalysis in 2019.<ref name=reuters>{{Cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-chavez-idUSBRE91P0XN20130226|title=Most Venezuelans think Chavez will recover: poll|last=|first=|date=2013-02-26|work=[[Reuters]]|access-date=2019-01-31|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13828|title=Venezuela’s Highly Unusual Presidential Election|last=[[Gregory Wilpert|Wilpert]]|first=[[Gregory Wilpert|Gregory]]|date=2018-05-19|website=[[Venezuelanalysis.com]]|language=en|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=2019-01-31|quote=Pro-government pollsters, such as the company Hinterlaces give Maduro a 17 point advantage}}</ref>


==See also==
==See also==

Revision as of 04:18, 1 February 2019

2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis
Part of the crisis in Venezuela
File:Maduro and Guaidó (Presidential crisis).png
Nicolás Maduro (left) Juan Guaidó (right)
Date10 January 2019 (2019-01-10) – ongoing
(5 years, 7 months and 6 days)
Location
Venezuela
Caused by
MethodsProtests, support campaigns, foreign diplomatic pressure and sanctions
StatusOngoing
Parties
Crisis in Venezuela
Causes
Effects
Events
Elections
Protests
Timeline
Armed violence
flag Venezuela portal

The 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis is a presidential dispute that caused a nation-wide crisis, started on and ongoing since 10 January 2019.

The incumbent President Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner of the presidential election of May 2018; the process and results of that election were widely disputed.[1] On 10 January 2019, the National Assembly of Venezuela, which is opposition-majority, stated that results of the election were invalid and declared Juan Guaidó as the acting president, citing several clauses of the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution that was enacted under Hugo Chávez, Maduro's predecessor. In response, the Maduro-appointed Supreme Tribunal of Justice called the Assembly's proclamation unconstitutional.[2]

Mass protests throughout Venezuela and the world occurred on 23 January when Guaidó called for Venezuelans to demonstrate against Maduro.[3][4] Demonstrations in support of the Bolivarian Revolution and government took place as well.[5] Mass demonstrations continue as of 30 January.[6][7]

Special meetings in the Organization of American States on 24 January and in the United Nations on 26 January were held but no consensus was reached. UN political chief called for dialogue to ease tensions.[8] Mexico and Uruguay announced an international conference for countries with a neutral position to take place in Montevideo on 7 February.[9]

Maduro's government says the current crisis is a coup d'état lead by the United States to topple him and control the country’s vast oil reserves.[10][11][12]

Background

See also: Crisis in Venezuela and 2017 Venezuelan constitutional crisis

Since 2010, Venezuela has been suffering a socioeconomic crisis under Nicolás Maduro (and briefly under his predecessor, Hugo Chávez), as rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages diminish the quality of life.[13][14][15][16][17][18] As a result of discontent with the government, the opposition was elected to hold the majority in the National Assembly for the first time since 1999 following the 2015 parliamentary election.[19] After the election, the lame duck National Assembly—consisting of Bolivarian officials—filled the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the highest court in Venezuela, with Maduro allies.[19][20] The tribunal stripped three opposition lawmakers of their National Assembly seats in early 2016, citing alleged "irregularities" in their elections, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge President Maduro.[19]

The tribunal then approved several actions by Maduro and granted him more powers in 2017.[19] As protests mounted against Maduro, he called for a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution to replace the 1999 Venezuela Constitution created under Chávez.[21] Many countries considered these actions a bid by Maduro to stay in power indefinitely,[22] and over 40 countries stated that they would not recognize the National Constituent Assembly.[23][24] The Democratic Unity Roundtable—the opposition to the incumbent ruling party—boycotted the election, saying that the Constituent Assembly was "a trick to keep [the incumbent ruling party] in power".[25] Since the opposition did not participate in the election, the incumbent Great Patriotic Pole, dominated by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won almost all seats in the assembly by default.[26][27][28] On 8 August 2017, the Constituent Assembly declared itself to be the government branch with supreme power in Venezuela, banning the opposition-led National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the assembly while continuing to pass measures in "support and solidarity" with President Maduro, effectively stripping the National Assembly of all its powers.[29]

2018 presidential election

Main article: 2018 Venezuelan presidential election
A June 2018 video with United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Raad Al Hussein discussing the crisis in Venezuela

In February 2018, Maduro called for presidential elections four months before the prescribed date.[30] He was declared the winner in May 2018 after multiple major opposition parties were banned from participating among other irregularities; many said the elections were invalid.[31][32][33][34] Paired with views of Maduro's leadership being an ineffective dictatorship,[35][36][37] politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected.[38] In the months leading up to his 10 January 2019 inauguration, Maduro was pressured to step down by nations and bodies including the Lima Group (excluding Mexico), the United States, and the OAS, with this pressure being increased as the new National Assembly of Venezuela was sworn in on 5 January 2019.[39][40][41] Maduro disavowed the National Assembly in 2017;[42] it is known as the "only democratically elected institution left in the country".[a]

Calls for transitional government

Between the May 2018 presidential election and Maduro's inauguration, there were calls to establish a transitional government.[51][52][53] CEO of Venezuela Al Día, Manuel Corao, argued that Maduro was no longer the president and that "the tendencies in Venezuela represented in the National Assembly [wish to] designate a transitional government that fills the vacuum of power and liberates Venezuelans from Communist evil".[51] Former Venezuelan legislator Alexis Ortiz stated that "Castrochavism [...] rots in incompetence, corruption, and surrender of national sovereignty", calling on a transitional government to work on reconciliation, establish general elections, receive humanitarian assistance and protect civil liberties, among other requests.[52]

A November 2018 report by the International Crisis Group said that "[n]eighboring countries and other foreign powers have taken steps—including sanctions—to achieve some kind of negotiated transition, which is still the best way out of the crisis".[53]

Justification for the challenge

The Venezuelan opposition bases its actions on the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution, specifically Article 233 establishing that the leader of National Assembly is to hold office in the absence of a legitimate President, which they say is the case after the 2018 Venezuelan presidential elections.[54] Article 333 calls for citizens to restore and enforce the constitution if it is not followed. They argue that both the national and international community must unite behind a transitional government that will guarantee humanitarian aid, bring the restoration of Venezuela's rule of law, and will hold democratic elections.[54]

Timeline

Inauguration of Maduro

Main article: Second inauguration of Nicolás Maduro
Maduro at his second inauguration on 10 January 2019

Nicolás Maduro was inaugurated as president of Venezuela on 10 January 2019. Minutes after Maduro took the oath of office, the Organization of American States approved a resolution in a special session of its Permanent Council in which Maduro was declared illegitimate as President of Venezuela, urging that new elections be summoned.[55]

Maduro's election was supported by Turkey, Russia, China, and the ALBA.[56][57] Small Caribbean nations reliant on economic assistance from the Maduro government also attended.[58]

The first major signs of impending crisis showed when a Supreme Court Justice and Electoral Justice seen as close to Maduro defected to the United States just a few days before the 10 January inauguration. The justice, Christian Zerpa [es] said that Maduro was "incompetent" and "illegitimate".[39][40][59]

At the time of the inauguration, The Times reported that U.S. intelligence had allegedly learned that one of Maduro's close top officials and Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino López, had requested that Maduro step down, threatening to resign if Maduro did not.[60] Padrino López would later pledge loyalty to Maduro, stating he would give his life for him and the Bolivarian revolution.[61] During a cadena nacional issued by Maduro on 15 January 2019, Padrino López swore loyalty to Maduro, stating directly to him that members of the National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela (FANB) "are willing to die to defend that Constitution, those people, those institutions and you as supreme magistrate, president of Venezuela [...] we are not an imperialist, colonialist FANB, we are a liberating FANB".[61]

Maduro's government states that the actions taken against him are "the results of imperialism perpetrated by the United States and allies" that put Venezuela "at the centre of a world war".[62]

Public assembly

Juan Guaidó surrounded by members of the opposition during the public assembly on 11 January 2019

Juan Guaidó, the newly appointed President of the National Assembly of Venezuela, began motions to form a provisional government shortly after assuming his new role in the National Assembly on 5 January 2019, stating that whether Maduro began his new term on the 10th or not, the country would not have a legitimately elected president.[63] On behalf of the National Assembly, he stated that the country had fallen into a de facto dictatorship and had no leader,[64] declaring that the nation faces a state of emergency.[65] It was in this statement that he first called for "soldiers who wear their uniforms with honor to step forward and enforce the Constitution", and asked "citizens for confidence, strength, and to accompany us on this path".[65]

Guaidó then announced that he would hold a public assembly, referred to as an open cabildo, on 11 January.[66] This was hosted as a rally in the streets of Caracas, and here the National Assembly announced that Guaidó was assuming the role of the acting president under the Constitution of Venezuela, also announcing plans to remove President Maduro.[67]

The rally had provisions to allow for leaders of other political parties, trade unions, women, and the students of Venezuela to be given a voice. Other parties did not speak of their divide, but of what they saw as a failed Bolivarian Revolution that needed to end.[67]

Maduro's initial response to the public assembly was to call the opposition a group of "little boys", describing Guaidó as "immature". More threateningly, the Minister for Prison Services, Iris Varela, said that she had already picked out a prison cell for Guaidó and asked him to be quick in naming his cabinet so she could prepare prison cells for them as well.[68]

National Assembly declares Guaidó president

Agreement approved by the National Assembly to declare the usurpation of the presidency by Nicolás Maduro on 15 January.

Following Guaidó's speech, the National Assembly initially released a press statement saying that Guaidó had taken the role of acting president. A later statement replaced this one and the position of Guaidó was clarified that "he is willing to assume command, but said that this is only possible with the help of Venezuelans".[69] This motion was not considered a coup d'état by the opposition based on the acknowledged "illegitimacy" of Maduro by many governments, and the constitutional processes that the National Assembly were following.[70] Specifically, they invoked Articles 233, 333, and 350.[67] On this day, Guaidó received a letter from the President of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice of Venezuela in exile, which is based in Panama, requesting him to become acting president of Venezuela.[71]

Guaidó announced change, and nationwide protests to be held on 23 January, inciting a slogan chant of ¡Sí, se puede![70] This date is the same day as the removal of Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1958.[72] The National Assembly worked with the Venezuelan Liberation Front to create a plan for the protests and marches, organizing a unified national force.[73] On 11 January, plans to offer incentives for the armed forces to disavow Maduro were revealed.[74]

The Secretary-General of the Organization of American States was the first to give official support to this action, tweeting "We welcome the assumption of Juan Guaidó as interim President of Venezuela in accordance with Article 233 of the Political Constitution. You have our support, that of the international community and of the people of Venezuela".[70] Later on that day, Brazil and Colombia gave their support to Guaidó as acting president of Venezuela.[75]

Venezuelan political experts, like David Smilde from the Washington Office on Latin America, suggested that it would enrage Maduro, who already called the National Assembly traitors for not attending his inauguration, and who might arrest or attack more of its members. A friend of Guaidó, in response, said that they were aware of the risks but believed it needed to be done to allow democracy to reappear in Venezuela.[70]

Detention of Guaidó

On 13 January 2019, Guaidó was detained by the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN)[76] but was released 45 minutes later.[77] The SEBIN agents who intercepted his car and took him into custody were fired from their positions.[78][79][80] The Information Minister, Jorge Rodríguez, says that the agents did not have instructions and the arrest was orchestrated by Guaidó as a "media stunt" to gain popularity; BBC News correspondents say that it appeared to be a genuine ambush and was used to send a message to those who oppose Maduro.[78] Luis Almagro, head of the OAS, condemned the arrest, which he called a "kidnapping", while Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State, referred to it as an "arbitrary detention".[81]

Two journalists were detained while on-air and covering SEBIN's actions towards Guaidó: Beatriz Adrián of Caracol Televisión and Osmary Hernández of CNN.[82]

In a speech after his detention, Guaidó said that Rodríguez's admission that the intelligence agents acted independently showed that the government had lost control of its security forces; he called Miraflores (the presidential house and office) "desperate".[78][81] In a later announcement on 13 January, Guaidó declared himself as acting president, his most direct claim to the position.[83]

Military and diplomatic defections

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López said the armed forces would not recognize Juan Guaidó

On 17 January, a group of Venezuelan ex-army and police officers in Peru announced their support for Guaidó, saying that they do not recognize Maduro as their president or leader.[84][85] Multiple groups of similarly retired or displaced soldiers said that they would return to Caracas to fight against Maduro should they be needed.[86] Around this time it was also reported that though the currently serving military swore allegiance to Maduro, many had spoken to exiled and defected soldiers to express their wish to not suppress any uprising that could oust Maduro, secretly supporting Guaidó.[87] The National Assembly offered amnesty for military defectors.[88]

Early on 21 January, at least 27 soldiers of the National Guard mutinied against Maduro in San José de Cotiza; they were stationed near Miraflores Palace. It is reported that they kidnapped four security staff and stole weaponry from a post in Petare, and posted videos on social media promising the military would fight against the government for the people of Venezuela. In the area, rioting and arson began in the streets through the night; tear gas was used on civilian protestors. Several hours later, the fighting having continued until daylight, they were all taken by authorities.[89][90] Five were injured[91] and one person died in the mutiny: a civilian woman who was confused for a protester was killed by members of a colectivo, who also stole her phone.[92] The mutiny, termed a "failed coup", has been compared by the BBC to the El Junquito raid from just over a year earlier (15 January 2018), which resulted in the death of rebel leader Óscar Pérez.[93]

On 27 January, the top Venezuelan military representative to the United States, Colonel José Luis Silva, announced that he had changed sides and recognizes Guaidó as his president.[94]

On 28 January, the top Venezuelan consular officer in Miami, Scarlett Salazar, announced support to interim President Juan Guaidó as "it [follows] my democratic principles and values" and she urged other diplomats to "embrace the Constitution" and join Guaidó in trying to force new elections.[95]

On 30 January, Guaidó said that the opposition had been having secret meetings with officials in the military to organize what the Amnesty Law would contain, without naming the officials or confirming if he was present at these meetings himself. An opposition representative said that the meetings were focused on army officers, who were amenable to the idea and "expressed concern about the Trump administration's past threats of military intervention in Venezuela and [...] that the armed forces would be outgunned in any fight". Analysts warned that the meetings could potentially only win partial support and schism the military, which may cause a civil war or coup instead of the intended peaceful resolution.[86]

National Assembly declares Guaidó interim president

File:Guaidó jura como presidente.jpg
Guaidó being sworn in as Interim President
23 January march in Caracas

On 23 January, Guaidó was sworn in as Interim President.[96]

Prior to 23 January, there had been great anticipation of the day, with smaller protests building in the nation in the preceding days. On the morning of 23 January, Guaidó tweeted that "The world's eyes are on our homeland today".[97] On that day, millions of Venezuelans[98] protested across the country and world in support of Guaidó,[3][4] described as "a river of humanity",[99] with a few hundred attending a protest in support of Maduro outside Miraflores.[5][100]

The opposition protest march began its route at Avenida Francisco de Miranda, a major street in Caracas,[101] which was planned for a 10:00 AM start but was delayed for 30 minutes due to rain.[102] At one end was a stage, this part of the street blocked off, where Guaidó spoke during the protest and declared himself president,[103][104] swearing himself in.[105] It was reported that the National Guard used tear gas on gathering crowds before the protest began to disperse them.[103] Another area of the capital was blocked off at Plaza Venezuela, a large main square, with armored vehicles and riot police on hand before protestors arrived.[97]

It was reported on social media that by midday, two people were killed in protests in San Cristóbal, Táchira,[106] and four in Barinas.[107] Photographic reports published showed that some protests grew violent, resulting in injuries to protesters and security alike.[108] By the end of the day, at least 13 people were killed.[109] Michelle Bachelet of the United Nations expressed concern that so many people had been killed and requested a UN investigation into the security forces' use of violence.[110]

Maduro responds

On 25 January 2019, Maduro held a press conference in the afternoon. During the event, he said Guaidó's actions were part of a "well-written script from Washington" to create a puppet state of the United States.[111] Maduro asked for dialogue with Guaidó, saying "if I have to go meet this boy [...] at three in the morning I am going, [...] if I have to go naked, I am going, [I believe] that today, sooner rather than later, the way is open for a reasonable, sincere dialogue".[112] He also stated that he would not leave the presidential office, saying that he was elected in compliance with the Venezuelan constitution.[113]

Guaidó spoke publicly in Caracas at the same time as Maduro, asking for military support and warning that the people protesting would never get tired.[114] During the speech, Guaidó also quickly replied to Maduro's call for dialogue, saying he would not initiate diplomatic talks with Maduro because he believed it would be a farce and fake diplomacy that couldn't achieve anything.[115]

Reuters reported that Russian mercenaries from Wagner Group had flown to Venezuela to defend Maduro's government.[116] This claim was dismissed by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, calling it "fake news".[117][118]

Recognition

Nations recognizing presidential power
  Venezuela
  Recognize Guaidó
  Support National Assembly
  Recognize Maduro

Maduro presidency

Non-UN states:

Intergovernmental organizations:

Organizations

Other groups

Guaidó interim presidency

Foreign states:

Non-UN states:

Intergovernmental organizations:

Organizations:

Domestic:

Support of National Assembly

Foreign states:

Non-UN states:

Intergovernmental organizations:

Vocal neutrality

Several nations called specifically for non-intervention and, without recognizing either side, asked for diplomatic discussions to be held to move forward.

Countries

Intergovernmental organizations:

Censorship

Further information: Censorship in Venezuela
Main article: Block of Wikipedia in Venezuela
NetBlocks showing blocks of Instagram, Twitter and YouTube on 21 January 2019

Several sources reported that internet access to Wikipedia (in all languages) was blocked in Venezuela.[186][187] The block was reported since 11 January after Guaidó's page on the Spanish Wikipedia was updated to add his claim of acting president and the edit war that followed, with 37 edits and reverts in just over two hours.[188] The block mainly affects the users of the state-run CANTV, the national telecommunications company and largest provider of the country.[189] Several media outlets have suggested that Wikipedia directly or indirectly was taking sides with either group.[190][191][192]

Later on 21 January, the day of a National Guard mutiny in Cotiza, internet access to some social media like Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube was reported to be blocked for CANTV users. The Venezuelan government denied it had engaged in blocking.[193] In the late evening of 22 January, it was reported that Twitter and Instagram were completely blocked in the country, possibly to suppress the organization of the protests happening the next day.[194]

During 23 January protests, widespread internet outages for CANTV users were reported, with Wikipedia,[195] Google Search, Facebook, Instagram and many other social media platforms being affected.[196] The widespread regional internet blackouts went on again through 26 to 27 January.[197][198] On 29 January, the National Assembly session was streamed live but the access to YouTube and Periscope streaming services was disrupted for CANTV users.[199]

Canal 24 Horas, a news channel owned by Chile's public broadcaster, Televisión Nacional, was removed from Venezuela's cable and satellite television operators by the state-run National Commission of Telecommunications on 24 January.[200]

Since 22 January, CONATEL, the national telecommunications company, has repeatedly advised against the promotion of violence and the disavowing of institutional authorities according to the ley resorte imposed in 2004.[201] In line with this advice, some radio programs have been ordered off air, including Cesar Miguel Rondón's radio program, one of the most listened-to programs in the country. Other programs have also received censorship warnings.[202][203][204]

Arrests of press workers

On the days of 29 and 30 of January, at least eleven press workers were arrested by the Maduro government.[205] On the evening of 29 January, four journalists were arrested by the Maduro government while reporting near the Miraflores presidential palace. Venezuelan journalists Ana Rodríguez of VPI TV and Maiker Yriarte of TV Venezuela, and Chilean journalists Rodrigo Pérez and Gonzalo Barahona of TVN Chile.[206] The two Venezuelan journalists were released; the Chilean journalists were deported.[207]

Two French journalists from French TV show Quotidien and their Venezuelan producer were detained near Miraflores on 30 January.[208][209] Three press workers of EFE were also arrested by SEBIN and DGCIM; a Colombian photographer, a Colombian companion, and a Spanish companion.[205]

The Venezuelan Minister for Foreign Affairs, Jorge Arreaza, defended the detentions, stating that press workers were part "of the media operation against the country" and that media organizations wanted "to create a media scandal" by not "complying with the minimum prerequisites required by Venezuelan law". Press organizations stated that they complied with the migration laws of Venezuela.[210]

Reactions

Governments

International

  •  China: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that China "supports efforts made by the Venezuelan government to protect the country’s sovereignty, independence, and stability" and "opposes foreign forces from interfering into Venezuela affairs."[211][212]
Elliott Abrams, a former foreign policy official under the Reagan and Bush administrations, was appointed the United States' Special Envoy to Venezuela
  •  United States: On 15 January, United States President Donald Trump was reported to be deliberating over whether to officially recognize Guaidó as the President,[213] which he did on 23 January.[214][215][216] United States Vice President Mike Pence released a video on the morning of 23 January in support of Guaidó and the people of Venezuela.[103][217] The United States was the first nation to recognize Guaidó after he was sworn in later that day, with President Donald Trump and Pence sending their support and solidarity as well as the official recognition, and other countries followed suit.[218] In response Maduro ordered the expulsion of all US diplomats, giving them 72 hours to leave Venezuela. In response the US announced that it would not close its embassy, stating their diplomatic relationship was with Guaidó's government, and holds Maduro responsible for the safety of its staff[218][219][220] On 26 January 2019, only hours before the deadline, the Maduro government backtracked on its expulsion order saying it would give U.S. diplomats an extended thirty-day period to stay and participate in dialogue.[221] Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appointed Elliott Abrams as the United States' Special Envoy to Venezuela.[222] At a government address on 28 January, the United States imposed sanctions on PDVSA, stating that they would not buy Venezuelan oil if the company continued to recognize Maduro. The United States accounted for 41% of purchases from the company, which is the biggest input to Venezuela's economy. Guaidó convened the National Assembly to name a new head of the company.[223]
Guaidó communication to embassies in Venezuela: I am responsible for telling them that we are a sovereign nation and will continue to maintain diplomatic relations with all the countries of the world

Intergovernmental organizations

  •  European Union: the European Union (EU) issued a declaration stating that it "fully supports the National Assembly as the democratically elected institution whose powers need to be restored and respected",[224] though some of its member states, like the United Kingdom, later said they supported Guaidó.[225]
  • Lima Group: On 11 and 12 January, several nations of the Lima Group began to release statements independent from the international body. These documents all included their nations' agreement to not recognize Maduro and were focused on clarifying individual stances on non-interventionism regarding a separate territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana.[226][227][228] Despite this, the Maduro government, via several vice presidential press releases, claimed that these countries had "rectified" themselves to support him as president.[226][229] They had not, with the non-intervention statements seen as a concession to prevent rash action by Maduro after he broadly threatened the group.[226][228] The Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Jorge Arreaza, gave a different statement to the vice presidential office, saying that Venezuela had received diplomatic notices from some Lima Group countries about the original dispute.[226] Panama restated the group's original ninth point, highlighting issues of International Law.[226] Colombia's statement reiterated the group's resolution and pledged to support "the restoration of democracy and constitutional order in Venezuela", as well as saying that they do not have a position on the territorial dispute.[227] Arreaza defied his government by refuting the claims that the Lima Group recognized Maduro's government, as well as doubling Maduro's 48-hour demand period for non-intervention for the remaining countries after it expired. He also promoted peaceful diplomatic discussion with neighboring countries.[230] The group—except for Mexico, which called for non-intervention in Venezuelan internal affairs[231]—continued to back the Guaidó government, with the Foreign Minister of Chile pledging "unlimited support".[232]

National organizations

Various organizations began to reaffirm their support for the National Assembly. These organizations included the Venezuela Creditors Committee, a fund bank that can give loans to the ailing nation and which could not finalize an agreement with Maduro in 2017,[233] and all of the other businesses represented by the OFAC union. These include Electricidad de Caracas, providing electrical power to the capital and surrounding areas.[158] PDVSA, the nation's largest oil and gas company, was initially reported as supporting Guaidó, but later pledged loyalty to Maduro.[158][140]

The Catholic Church in Venezuela, organized by the Episcopal Conference of Venezuela, released a statement by Monsignor Ovidio Pérez Morales on 15 January 2019 saying "The Church in Venezuela, united to its Bishops in communion with the Pope, declare the socialist-communist regime illegitimate and stand in solidarity with the Venezuelan people to rescue democracy, freedom, and justice. Trusting in God, they support the National Assembly".[159]

Responses

Maduro responded to the accusations levied against him by denouncing them as "US imperialism" and compared the alleged foreign interference to colonialism.[62] Maduro called Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro a Hitler of the modern era after Brazil recognized Guaidó as the president.[234] Maduro also sent a message to the American people saying "I ask for the support of the people of the United States so that there will not be a new Vietnam, much less here in our America.”[235]

On 15 January, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Maduro "an illegitimate dictator",[236] with Donald Trump's National Security Adviser John R. Bolton and Brazilian President Bolsonaro also using the same term.[237][238] On 18 January, Bolsonaro said that he would soon announce his plans for a solution regarding Venezuela.[239]

International protests

Pro-Guaidó government

Washington, D.C. public assembly

A group of a few hundred Venezuelans and other supporters held a peaceful assembly in place of a protest in Washington, D.C., the United States capital. They assembled by the Simón Bolivar statue in the city to protest the Maduro government remaining in power.[240]

The center of Madrid was also packed full of demonstrators, in what was the largest ever foreign protest in Spain.[241] Venezuelans in Brazil also gathered to shout in the streets of São Paulo for Maduro to leave power.[242] There were protests in Mexico City.[243]

Pro-Maduro government

There were demonstrations in several cities worldwide supporting Maduro's government, including Washington D.C.,[244] London,[245] Brussels,[246] Istanbul,[247] Zaragoza,[248] and the Basque Country.[249] Some hashtags used were #HandsOffVenezuela and #VenezuelaYElMundoConMaduro.

Social media

Despite the blocks in Venezuela, by midday local time, the Twitter hashtag "#23Ene" — shorthand for "23 de Enero", Spanish for 23 January — was trending worldwide.[250] Later in the day, five of the top ten trends were protest-related: "Venezuela", "Juan Guaidó", "#23Ene", "#GritemosConBrio", and "Guaido".[251] With protests continuing to the next day, "#24Ene" began trending, too.[252]

It was reported in the late evening that Instagram had removed the "Verified" label from Maduro's account, instead placing one on Guaidó's account, although this was denied by Instagram.[253] Guaidó's description had also been updated to include the claim of "President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela".[254] The following day, Facebook followed the action in un-verifying Maduro, seen by many as an act signifying they do not recognize him as President.[255]

On 25 January 2019, within minutes[256][257] of Venezuela's state-run media posting a video attempting to discredit Guaidó, the Instagram hashtag #GuaidoChallenge went viral, trending worldwide.[258]

Public opinion

Polls in Venezuela "are notoriously controversial and divergent".[259]

A telephone survey of 1,000 registered voters in Venezuela by Venezuelan pollster Hercon, conducted from 15 to 19 January 2019, reported 79.9% of respondents agreeing with Maduro leaving the presidency. Regarding the National Assembly, 68.8% of respondents rated their work as being positive while 15.6% rated their actions as negative. When asked if they agreed with the National Assembly swearing in Guaidó as interim president, 68.6% agreed with Guaidó being interim president while 19.4% disagreed.[260]

Surveys of 900 people between 19 and 20 January by Meganálisis reported that 81.4% of respondents hoped that Guaidó would be sworn in on 23 January while 84.2% supported a transitional government to replace Maduro's government.[261]

A Meganálisis survey of 870 Venezuelans performed between 24 and 25 January reported that 83.7% of respondents recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president, 11.4% could not decide who was president and 4.8% recognized Maduro as president.[262]

A telephone survey of 999 Venezuelans by Hercon between 25 and 30 January showed that 81.9% of respondents recognized Guaidó as president, 13.4% responded stating Maduro was president and 4.6% were undecided.[263]

A January 2019 poll by Hinterlaces reported that 86% of Venezuelans would oppose a military intervention, that 81% oppose US sanctions, and that 84% support dialogue to end the crisis.[264] Another Hinterlaces poll, of 1580 households, reported that 81% did not know who Guaidó was, with 11% having a favorable opinion of him and 5% having an unfavorable opinion; 3% had no opinion.[265][better source needed] Hinterlaces is headed by Oscar Schemel [es], a member of the National Constituent Assembly, and was described as pro-government by the opposition in 2013 and by Venezuelanalysis in 2019.[259][266]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Sources directly claiming that the National Assembly is the "only democratically elected" or "only legitimate" political body in Venezuela include: Financial Times,[43] The Telegraph,[44] the BBC,[45] Economic Times,[46] CTV,[47] Business Times,[48] Reuters agency,[49] CBC,[50] etc.
  2. ^ El Salvador changed its mind several times. Initially supporting Maduro, an official statement released on 24 January said they recognized Guaidó; later that day another statement was released, reiterating their backing of Maduro.[126][127]
  3. ^ Excluding Mexico.
  4. ^ a b c d On 26 January 2019, Spain, France, Germany and the United Kingdom gave Maduro an eight-day ultimatum, saying they would recognize Guaidó as president unless Maduro calls for fresh elections within that timeframe.[162]

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  234. ^ "'Bolsonaro is Hitler!' Venezuela's Maduro exclaims amid Brazil spat". Reuters.com. 14 January 2019. Retrieved 29 January 2019.
  235. ^ We Don't Want Another Vietnam War in Latin America: Maduro
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  244. ^ "El pueblo de los EEUU está con Venezuela y condena la locura imperial de atentar contra la democracia y la integridad constitucional de Venezuela! Han iniciado protestas frente a la Casa Blanca en solidaridad con nuestra Patria! Gracias por defender la integridad de Venezuela!". Retrieved 28 January 2019.
  245. ^ "En Londres, nada más y nada menos que frente al Número 10 de Downing Street (despacho de la Primera Ministra), movimientos sociales y políticos británicos se movilizan por el respeto a la soberanía de Venezuela, en rechazo a la injerencia y en apoyo al Presidente @NicolasMaduro". Retrieved 28 January 2019.
  246. ^ "En #Bruselas Manifestacion de Solidaridad con la #RevoluciónBolivariana denuncian ante #ParlamentoEuropeo injerencia hacia #Venezuela y expresan apoyo al gobierno legítimo de @NicolasMaduro @CancilleriaVE @jaarreaza @yvangil @cscaldera @planwac #VenezuelaYElMundoConMaduro". Retrieved 28 January 2019.
  247. ^ "#AHORA #Estambul Multitudinaria muestra de apoyo del hermano pueblo turco, en solidaridad con el legítimo presidente de Venezuela @NicolasMaduro y la Revolución Bolivariana @CancilleriaVE @ViceVenezuela @jaarreaza". Retrieved 28 January 2019.
  248. ^ "Gracias a los pueblos de Europa, la conciencia se sobrepone a la farsa y los ultimátums neocoloniales. Acá Zaragoza (España) manifestando respaldo a @NicolasMaduro en nuestra lucha contra el imperio de los EEUU #VenezuelaDerrotaGolpeDeEstado". Retrieved 28 January 2019.
  249. ^ "Más bellas imágenes de Durango y Santurtzi en el Pais Vasco! Denunciando el Golpe de Estado en Venezuela #UnidadYLealtadConNicolas". Retrieved 28 January 2019.
  250. ^ "#23Ene on Twitter 16:33UTC 23-01-2019". Retrieved 23 January 2019.
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  256. ^ "Estalla Venezuela con el #GuaidoChallenge" (in Spanish). La Patilla. 25 January 2019. Retrieved 25 January 2019.
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  261. ^ "Ni diálogo, ni elecciones... esto es lo que quieren los venezolanos después del #23Ene, según revela encuestadora Meganálisis". La Patilla (in European Spanish). 21 January 2019. Retrieved 22 January 2019. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  262. ^ "83.7 % de los venezolanos reconocen a Guaidó como el Presidente legítimo de Venezuela (Flash Meganálisis)". La Patilla (in European Spanish). 26 January 2019. Retrieved 27 January 2019. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  263. ^ "81,9 % de venezolanos reconoce a Juan Guaidó como presidente de Venezuela (Encuesta Hercón)". La Patilla (in European Spanish). 31 January 2019. Retrieved 31 January 2019. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  264. ^ "New poll shows Venezuelans overwhelmingly oppose military intervention and US sanctions". The Canary. 29 January 2019.
  265. ^ "Hinterlaces: 81% de los venezolanos desconoce a Guaidó como líder político". 20 January 2019.
  266. ^ Wilpert, Gregory (19 May 2018). "Venezuela's Highly Unusual Presidential Election". Venezuelanalysis.com. Retrieved 31 January 2019. Pro-government pollsters, such as the company Hinterlaces give Maduro a 17 point advantage {{cite web}}: Check |first= value (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
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