2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
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Presidential primaries and caucuses are being organized by the Republican Party to select the delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention scheduled to be held between February and June 2024 to determine the party's nominee for president of the United States in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The elections will take place in all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories (these territories do not participate in the presidential election, although Guam does hold a straw poll).
On November 15, 2022, at Mar-a-Lago, former president Donald Trump announced that he would run again in 2024. He is seeking to become the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.[3]
On February 14, 2023, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who served as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, announced her candidacy for president, making her the second major candidate in the race.[4]
On February 21, 2023, executive chairman of Strive Asset Management and former CEO of Roivant Sciences, Vivek Ramaswamy, an activist against environmental, social and corporate governance initiatives, announced his candidacy for the presidency on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[5]
On April 2, 2023, former governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson, who also served as chairman of the National Governors Association and was George W. Bush's Administrator of Drug Enforcement, announced his candidacy during an interview with ABC News' Jonathan Karl.[6]
On April 20, 2023, Larry Elder, former radio personality and candidate in the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election, announced his campaign on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[7]
On May 19, 2023, after forming an exploratory committee on April 12, Tim Scott, a senator and former representative from South Carolina, submitted FEC paperwork to run,[8] and made a formal declaration on May 22.[9]
On May 24, 2023, governor of Florida and former representative Ron DeSantis submitted his FEC paperwork to run,[10] and announced that he was running for president via a Twitter Spaces interview with Elon Musk.[11]
Candidates
Declared major candidates
The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office; have been included in at least five national polls.
Other declared candidates
The candidates in this section are otherwise notable, but have not met the criteria outlined above.
- John Anthony Castro, tax consultant and perennial candidate[28]
- Perry Johnson, businessman who failed to qualify for the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election[29]
- Steve Laffey, mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island (2003–2007)[30]
- Corey Stapleton, Montana Secretary of State (2017–2021), member of the Montana Senate from the 27th district (2001–2009)[31]
Announcement pending
As of May 2023,[update] the following individuals have reportedly planned an announcement declaring whether they will run for president.
- Doug Burgum, 33rd Governor of North Dakota (2016–present) (announcement expected on June 7, 2023)[32]
Decision pending
As of May 2023[update], the following notable individuals are expected to make a decision regarding their official candidacy within a set timeline.
- Chris Christie, 55th Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018), U.S. Attorney for New Jersey (2002–2008), Morris County Freeholder (1995–1997), candidate for president in 2016[33] (decision expected in May 2023)[34]
- Will Hurd, United States Representative from TX-23 (2015–2021)[35] (decision expected by Memorial Day 2023)[36]
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021), 50th Governor of Indiana (2013–2017), United States Representative from IN-06 (2001–2013) (decision expected by late June 2023)[37]
- Mike Rogers, United States Representative from MI-08 (2001–2015), member of the Michigan Senate from the 26th district (1995–2001)[38] (decision expected no earlier than May 2023)[39]
- Francis X. Suarez, 43rd Mayor of Miami (2017–present), member of the Miami City Commission (2009–2017)[40] (decision expected by June 2023)[41]
- Chris Sununu, 82nd Governor of New Hampshire (2017–present), member of the New Hampshire Executive Council (2011–2017)[42] (decision expected by mid-June 2023)[43]
Publicly expressed interest
As of May 2023[update], the following notable individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- John Bolton, 27th United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), 25th United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006), 3rd Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs (2001–2005), 18th Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs (1989–1993), U.S. Assistant Attorney General (1985–1989)[44]
- Rick Perry, 14th United States Secretary of Energy (2017–2019), 47th Governor of Texas (2000–2015), 39th Lieutenant Governor of Texas (1999–2000), 9th Agriculture Commissioner of Texas (1991–1999), Member of the Texas House of Representatives (1985–1991), candidate for president in 2016 and 2012[45]
Potential candidates
As of May 2023[update], there has been speculation about the potential candidacy of the following notable individuals within the previous six months.
- Greg Abbott, 48th Governor of Texas (2015–present), 50th Texas Attorney General (2002–2015), Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of Texas (1996–2001)[46][47]
- Liz Cheney, United States Representative from WY-AL (2017–2023), Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (2002–2004, 2005–2009)[48][49]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present), 3rd Texas Solicitor General (2003–2008), candidate for president in 2016[50][51] (running for re-election)[50][b]
- Kristi Noem, 33rd Governor of South Dakota (2019–present), United States Representative from SD-AL (2011–2019), member of the South Dakota House of Representatives from the 6th district (2007–2011)[52][53]
- Glenn Youngkin, 74th Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[54] (will consider after the 2023 Virginia elections)[55]
Declined to be candidates
The following notable individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2019–present), United States Representative from TN-07 (2003–2019), member of the Tennessee Senate from the 23rd district (1999–2003)[56] (endorsed Trump)[57]
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight (2016–2023) and co-founder of The Daily Caller[58][59][60]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present), United States Representative from AR-04 (2013–2015)[61]
- Dan Crenshaw, United States Representative from TX-02 (2019–present)[62][63]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present), member of the Iowa Senate from the 12th district (2011–2014), Montgomery County Auditor (2005–2011)[64][65]
- Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO, and 2016 presidential candidate[66][better source needed]
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present), 42nd Missouri Attorney General (2017–2019)[67] (running for re-election)[68]
- Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–2023), Maryland Secretary of Appointments (2003–2007)[69]
- Brian Kemp, 83rd Governor of Georgia (2019–present), 27th Georgia Secretary of State (2010–2018), member of the Georgia Senate from the 46th district (2003–2007)[70][71][72]
- Adam Kinzinger, United States Representative from IL-16 (2011–2023)[73][74]
- Dan Patrick, 42nd Lieutenant Governor of Texas (2015–present), member of the Texas Senate from the 7th district (2007–2015)[75][76] (endorsed Trump)[77]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present), candidate for president in 2016[78][79]
- Mike Pompeo, 70th United States Secretary of State (2018–2021), 6th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018), United States Representative from KS-04 (2011–2017)[80]
- Mitt Romney, U.S. Senator from Utah (2019–present), 70th Governor of Massachusetts (2003–2007), nominee for president in 2012 and candidate in 2008[81][82]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–present), 94th Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (2006–2008) from the 111th district (2000–2008), member of the West Miami City Commission (1998–2000), candidate for president in 2016[83][84][85]
- Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2015–2019) from WI-01 (1999–2019) and nominee for vice president in 2012[86][87]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present), 45th Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[88] (running for re-election)[89]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman, executive vice president of The Trump Organization, son of former president Donald Trump[90][91]
- Ivanka Trump, Senior Advisor to the President of the United States (2017–2021), daughter of former president Donald Trump[92][93]
- Scott Walker, 45th Governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019), 5th Milwaukee County Executive (2002–2010), member of the Wisconsin State Assembly from the 14th district (1993–2002), candidate for president in 2016[94][84]
Vice presidential speculation
Multiple reporters, political analysts and commentators have noted that Trump selecting his former Vice President Mike Pence to be his running mate once again would be highly unlikely following rifts between the two over the future of the Republican Party and Pence's attempts to distance himself from the former president.[95][96][97] On March 15, 2022, Trump announced that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, Pence will not be his running mate.[98] In June 2022, the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack found that Trump said Pence "deserved" calls to be hanged on the day of the attack.[99] Pence has similarly stated that he has no interest in accepting the vice presidential nomination again.[100]
Several individuals have received speculation about possible selection as vice presidential nominee in 2024 including Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, Senator Rick Scott of Florida, and Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nuñez of Florida.[101][102] There has been speculation that former U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin of New York could become DeSantis' running mate after his strong performance in the 2022 New York gubernatorial election.[103] and both holding several rallies before and after the election together.[104][105] Some have speculated that former United Nations Ambassador and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley could be Trump's running mate.[106] Reportedly, Trump has "repeatedly" discussed the possibility of choosing United States Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate.[107] Greene has claimed that she is in talks with Trump to become his running mate.[108]
On March 6, 2023, multiple sources close to Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, as reported by Axios, ran the list down to four major contenders. These were Haley; Sarah Huckabee Sanders, former White House press secretary for Trump and recently elected governor of Arkansas, who has received media attention for her executive orders; Kristi Noem, governor of South Dakota; and Kari Lake, candidate for Arizona governor in 2022 who lost narrowly to Katie Hobbs. According to Axios, Trump's major factor in the race is loyalty, something he sees strongly in Lake given her reiterations of the claims of a stolen 2020 election.[109]
Timeline
A week after the 2022 midterm elections, Trump initiated his run for president on the third Tuesday of November, two years ahead of the 2024 election, unusually early especially after launching his 2016 and 2020 campaigns both on the third Tuesday of June in the year before. Nikki Haley became the first to follow him on February 14, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy one week later, Asa Hutchinson on April 6, Larry Elder on April 20, and Tim Scott on May 19. Ron DeSantis has said his public decision will come in mid May following the adjourning of his state's legislative session on May 5; on which day he disassociated himself from his state PAC, a necessary step ahead of his anticipated run for president. After several timetable shifts, he entered the race with a virtual message on May 24 followed with a more formal one in June.[110][111] Mike Pence has taken fundraising and political steps indicating he will launch a campaign in the "coming weeks."[112]
As of May 2023, the exact dates of many primaries are still uncertain; however, they will be finalized in the summer as GOP rules mandate that changes to dates and delegate allocation methods must occur by October 1.[113] They also specify that all primaries occur between March and June 11, 2024. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina will be the first, in February and that order currently, as they are exempted and allowed to occur early due to a tradition of allowing them to influence the rest. However, the first two appear to be scheduled in late January in some sources. The bulk will be concentrated in March, as usual in presidential primaries. By March 19, most delegates will have been awarded, making the eventual winner already predictable by this time if there is a great enough lead. The process will conclude with the formal adoption of the nominee by a majority of delegates at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which will be held from July 15–18.[114]
Overview
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Active campaign | Exploratory committee | Withdrawn candidate | |||
Primaries | Midterm elections | Republican National Convention |
Background
Despite losing his re-election bid in 2020, Trump remained the main front-runner of the GOP by endorsing challengers to several House members who had voted to impeach him, as well as pushing several candidates through for open races. These candidates had a lackluster performance resulting in the Republicans taking control of the house with only a small majority and causing a dip in Trump's popularity within the party.[115] At the same time Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida, won nearly 60% of the vote in a landslide victory in his gubernatorial re-election.[116] Media coverage consistently portrayed DeSantis as Trump's main rival, despite DeSantis not having announced a presidential run. DeSantis rose against Trump in GOP aggregate polls throughout 2022, eventually reaching 11 points behind him. However, since the turn of the year, Trump has resurged and DeSantis has fallen behind. This has been fueled by sentiments against an indictment of Trump on March 30. Polling from the week before DeSantis is set to join the race shows him at his lowest point yet, with Trump at 61% and him at 17%. However, he remains the top contender for being chosen vice president. National polling against incumbent president Biden shows nearly the exact result regardless of which is the GOP nominee, but because of DeSantis' prominence being more recent, more GOP voters are undecided on him than Trump. Mike Pence remains the last likely candidate polling over 2% who is yet to enter the race.[117][118][119]
In March 2023, Trump attacked him with nicknames like "Meatball Ron" and "Ron DeSanctimonious". Trump then rose in the polls,[120] even as the nation anticipated his indictment in a hush money case regarding his 2016 campaign. Trump was indicted on March 30[121][122] and arrested on April 4.[123] On April 25, he said he did not want to be "libeled and abused" in Republican debates and boasted that he already had a "seemingly insurmountable" lead.[124] On May 10, Trump conducted a live town hall with CNN, his first time with a major network other than Fox News since storming off an interview with 60 Minutes in October 2020.[125]
Trump also faces challenges from Democrats who may attempt to invoke the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution to prevent Trump from being eligible;[126] and he is currently the subject of four distinct criminal investigations into his activities while in office. [127][128][129]
Debates
The Republican National Committee (RNC) has announced that the first primary debate will be held in August 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and hosted by Fox News.[130][131] The second Republican primary debate will take place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley.[132] On April 25, 2023, Trump raised uncertainty about his participation in the debates on Truth Social due to his large polling lead at the time.[133]
Endorsements
Polling
Campaign finance
This is an overview of the money used by each campaign as it is reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Totals raised include individual contributions, loans from the candidate, and transfers from other campaign committees. Individual contributions are itemized (catalogued) by the FEC when the total value of contributions by an individual comes to more than $200. The last column, Cash On Hand (COH), shows the remaining cash each campaign had available for its future spending as of March 31, 2023.
Candidate | Total raised | Individual contributions | Debt | Spent | COH | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Unitemized | Pct | |||||
DeSantis[134] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Elder[135] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Haley[136] | $5,125,431 | $3,283,822 | $798,184 | 24.3% | $0 | $1,055,881 | $4,069,549 |
Hutchinson[137] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Ramaswamy[138] | $11,406,212 | $851,637 | $415,580 | 48.8% | $10,250,000 | $2,038,924 | $9,367,288 |
Scott[139] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Trump[140] | $18,272,903 | $16,361 | $4,911 | 30.0% | $255,109 | $4,340,955 | $13,931,948 |
See also
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Republican National Convention
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Democratic National Convention
Notes
- ^ This delegate count is accurate as of August 2024. Delegate counts are subject to change based on the number of Republicans elected to the state legislatures, governorships, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate through December 31, 2023.
- ^ Texas state law allows Cruz to run for both a party's presidential nomination and his current Senate seat.[50]
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