2010 United Kingdom general election
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Under the provisions of the Parliament Acts of 1911 and 1949, the next United Kingdom general election must, barring legislation to extend the life of the parliament which would only normally happen in exceptional circumstances, be held on or before 3 June 2010.[1] The previous General Election in the UK was held on 5 May 2005.
The next general election will be called following the dissolution of the current Parliament. Parliament is dissolved by the Monarch, usually at the request of the Prime Minister. Dissolution can occur at any time within five years of the start of that parliament; however, since the Parliamentary term was set at five years, Parliaments have most often sat for four years, with fresh elections being called at the start of the fifth year.[2]
If the current Parliament follows the pattern of dissolution after four years, the next general election will occur in 2009. The elections of 2001 and 2005 were timed to coincide with local, regional or European elections, an effort to reduce costs and increase turnout. If that practice is also followed, the election will take place on 11 June 2009, to coincide with elections to the European Parliament and local elections in England and those planned for Northern Ireland.
In November 2006 it was reported that activists for the governing Labour Party were being warned to prepare for a general election as early as 2008.[3] In June 2007, in his speech accepting his appointment as leader of the Labour Party, Gordon Brown declared that he was appointing a member of the government as election co-ordinator, indicating his intention to call an election earlier than expected.[4]
The general election will take place in all constituencies of the United Kingdom, for seats in the House of Commons. There are currently 646 seats in the house; under the proposals made by 3 of the 4 national Boundary Commissions, if approved by parliament, this would rise to 650 seats with a number of boundary changes from those used at the previous general election, especially in England and Wales where a ten-year review is due for completion in 2007, and will probably be implemented in the second half of 2007.
Overview
The governing Labour Party will be looking to secure a fourth consecutive term in office and to restore support lost by the Labour Party since 1997.[5] The Conservative Party will seek to regain its dominant position in politics against losses in the 1990s, replacing Labour as the governing party. The Liberal Democrats hope to make gains from both sides; although they too would ideally wish to form a government, their more realistic ambition is to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament, or to emerge as the main Opposition party pushing either Labour or the Conservatives into third place.
Bookmakers have been taking bets almost since the counting of the votes in 2005. As is often the case, following the Local Elections held on 4 May 2006, odds have mostly been showing the Conservatives as favourites to gain a majority in the next General Election but the opinion polls have shown a certain levelling off of support for the parties and mid term elections usually are far worse for a governing party than the general election at the end of the parliament.
Leadership of the main parties
David Cameron became Conservative leader in December 2005 replacing retiring leader Michael Howard. Sir Menzies Campbell replaced Charles Kennedy (who resigned after his own admission of having an alcohol problem) as leader of the Lib Dems in March 2006. Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as leader of the Labour Party on 24 June 2007. The last time all three main parties went into a General Election with new leaders was in the 1979 election, when James Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher and David Steel led the three main parties.
The leadership of each party may have implications beyond party popularity at the polls, especially if a hung parliament requires the formation of a coalition or minority government. Whereas Tony Blair courted the Lib Dems for possible coalition in the 1997 Parliament even though Labour had a clear majority, Gordon Brown is thought to be more resistant to co-operation with the Lib Dems. David Cameron is attempting to make a pitch towards what is referred to as Middle England — the people who it is held have abandoned the Conservative Party since 1992 for Labour or the Liberal Democrats.[6]
Menzies Campbell so far has continued the position of Charles Kennedy of not being prepared to form a coalition with either main party and of voting against any Queen's Speech unless there was an unambiguous commitment in it to introduce Proportional Representation.[7]
See also Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2005, Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2006, Labour Party (UK) leadership election, 2007, Timeline for the 2007 Labour Party (UK) Leadership elections and new Prime Minister, Labour Party (UK) deputy leadership election, 2007
Other parties
Many constituencies will be contested by other, smaller parties. Parties with representation at the previous general election at Westminster include the Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Féin (who do not take their seats as they will not swear the Oath of Allegiance to the Queen), the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and the Ulster Unionist Party from Northern Ireland; Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru from Scotland and Wales respectively; and RESPECT The Unity Coalition and Health Concern, each of which hold one Parliamentary seat from England. There is one independent member of Parliament, Dai Davies, elected in a by-election in succession to fellow independent Peter Law, who died in April 2006, and one Independent Labour member, Clare Short, who resigned the Labour whip in October 2006. Given vocal groups of opposition within both of the main parties, it is possible that the number of independent MPs will increase as members are expelled or resign.
Parties expected to contest the election that won no representatives at Westminster in 2005, but have seats in the devolved assemblies and/or European Parliament, include the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the Green Party of England and Wales and the Scottish Green Party.
UKIP's leader, Roger Knapman, retired as leader on his term ending in 2006 with the leadership election on 12 September 2006 electing Nigel Farage as his replacement. The Green Party has new joint speakers with Siân Berry and Dr. Derek Wall succeeding Caroline Lucas and Keith Taylor, repectively.
Small parties and independents that fail to win a seat can still have an effect on the outcome of an election (as can larger parties in seats in which they have no realistic prospect of winning) by taking votes off candidates who have a reasonable prospect of winning that particular seat, especially in marginal seats possibly having an effect on who is elected MP and on the course of the campaign.
See also List of political parties in the United Kingdom
Opinion polls, and analysis of votes in relation to numbers of seats
(Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Others)
The fact that each MP is elected separately makes it impossible to directly interpret national shares of the vote into a clear outcome in United Kingdom general elections as it is unknown for all constituencies in a General Election to exactly reflect national trends. However, analysis of previous elections shows that approximate forecasting of results can be achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system is used by much of the media in the UK to assess electoral fortunes.
Due to the boundary changes which will come into effect at the election, the benchmarks for relating national vote share to the outcome in seats have been recalculated by a team led by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher. Figures in brackets represents the headline lead. Note that these figures do not take into account the performance of the Liberal Democrats, minor or nationalist parties, Independent candidates, or localised effects caused by a change in the distribution of the Labour and Conservative vote and that of other parties.
| Uniform national swing | Result |
|---|---|
| Any to Lab | Increased Labour majority in Parliament (Labour lead greater than 3%) |
| Up to 1.6% to Con | Reduced Labour majority (Labour lead of up to 3%) |
| 1.6% – 4.3% to Con | Labour hung parliament (A Conservative lead of up to 6%) |
| 4.3% – 6.9% Con | Conservative hung parliament (A Conservative lead of up to 9%) |
| More than 6.9% to Con | Conservative overall majority (A Conservative lead of over 9%) |
Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of byelections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence in the government.
The First Past the Post system seldom closely reflects actual vote shares across the parties, although sometimes individual parties achieve similar shares of votes and seats. In addition, it is not necessarily the party with the most votes that ends up the largest grouping, and since 1935 no single party has ever achieved more than 50% in a UK General Election. Numbers of seats won reflect a large and complex interaction of factors of distribution of votes attained by parties. With a widely distributed vote not concentrated in particular areas, a party is at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats, whereas parties with very strong localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.
See also Exit poll, Opinion poll, Spoiler effect, Tactical voting, Voting system, Wasted vote
MPs who have announced their retirement at the next General Election
Labour
- John Battle — Leeds West, announced 20 October, 2006 [8]
- Colin Challen — Morley and Rothwell, announced 30 January, 2007 [9]
- John Cummings — Easington, announced 9 October, 2006 [10]
- Janet Dean — Burton, announced 20 June, 2007 [11]
- Bill Etherington — Sunderland North, announced 9 December, 2006 [12]
- Neil Gerrard — Walthamstow, announced 23 February, 2007 [13]
- John Grogan — Selby, announced 10 October, 2006 [14]
- Keith Hill — Streatham, announced 23 May, 2007 [15]
- Brian Iddon — Bolton South East, announced 5 October, 2006 [16]
- Lynne Jones — Birmingham Selly Oak, announced January 2007 [17]
- David Lepper — Brighton Pavilion, announced 19 September, 2006 [18]
- Chris McCafferty — Calder Valley, announced 7 March 2007 [19]
- Bill Olner — Nuneaton, announced 25 March 2007 [20]
- Mohammad Sarwar — Glasgow Central, announced 21 June 2007 [21]
- Alan Simpson — Nottingham South, announced 18 February, 2007 [22]
- Des Turner — Brighton Kemptown, announced 23 October, 2006 [23]
- Alan Williams — Swansea West
Conservative
- Tim Boswell — Daventry, announced 31 March 2006.[24]
- Angela Browning — Tiverton and Honiton, announced 17 November, 2006.[25]
- Michael Howard — Folkestone and Hythe, announced 17 March, 2006.[26]
- Michael Mates — East Hampshire, announced 24 November, 2006.[27]
- Michael Spicer — West Worcestershire, announced 24 March, 2006.[28]
- Ann Widdecombe — Maidstone and The Weald, has wavered over whether she will retire or not, her most recent statement being that she is "quite likely" to retire if the parliament is a normal length[29]
Liberal Democrats
- Paul Keetch — Hereford, announced 16 November, 2006[30]
- Mark Oaten — Winchester, announced 25 July, 2006[31]
- Matthew Taylor — Truro and St Austell, announced 17 January 2007.[32]
- Phil Willis — Harrogate and Knaresborough, announced 18 May 2007.[33]
Other parties
- George Galloway (RESPECT) — Bethnal Green and Bow, announced prior to election.[34]
- Alex Salmond (Scottish National Party) — Banff and Buchan, announced 15 January, 2006.[35]
- Clare Short (Independent; elected as Labour MP, resigned the whip 20 October 2006) — Birmingham Ladywood, announced 14 September, 2006.[36][37]
Boundary changes
The current list of constituencies likely to be used in the next United Kingdom general election (in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) is in Constituencies in the next United Kingdom general election.
The four national Boundary Commissions are required by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (as amended by the Boundary Commissions Act 1992) to conduct a general review of all the constituencies in its part of the United Kingdom every eight to twelve years to ensure the size and composition of constituencies are as fair as possible.
Scotland saw its most recent large-scale review completed in 2004, so the boundaries used in the 2005 General Election in Scotland will still apply at the next UK general election; England, Wales and Northern Ireland are due to have their first boundary changes in parliamentary constituencies since the 1997 General Election.
Constituencies in Wales were reviewed by the Boundary Commission for Wales, which has completed its latest review. The recommendations were laid before Parliament on 14 December 2005. The Welsh redistribution of Parliamentary seats has been given legal effect by The Parliamentary Constituencies and Assembly Electoral Regions (Wales) Order 2006 (SI 2006 No. 1041) made on 11 April 2006. The new constituencies will apply from the next general election.
In Wales, the total number of seats is to remain at 40, although new seats have been recommended by radical redrawing of boundaries in Clwyd and Gwynedd; Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd replace Caernarfon and Meirionnydd Nant Conwy respectively; Aberconwy replaces Conwy. Currently Welsh constituencies have on average 25,000 fewer people than their counterparts in England.
The Boundary Commission for England completed its previous general review on 12 April 1995, and the latest review, was required to be completed after 11 April 2003 and before 12 April 2007. The Commission’s recommendations throughout the review had, by law, to be based on the numbers of electors on the electoral registers in 2000 (when the 5th general review started).
In the event the recommendations were completed and sent to the Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs on 31 October 2006. The Secretary of State is required to put a draft Order in Council before Parliament. If Parliament approves the draft, then the Queen in Council will give legal effect to the new boundaries, which would be used for the next general election.
In 2006 the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission proposed that minor changes would take place in the east of the province to its existing constituencies. These changes have not yet been given legal effect.
Boundary changes prior to the expected June 2009 General Election mean Labour will lose nine MPs before a single vote is cast. This automatically reduces Labour's majority from 66 to 48. If Labour is to win a fourth term of office, it will need to prevent a net loss of anything between 24 and 39 seats. Otherwise, parliament will be hung and the Conservatives could form a government with Liberal Democrat support.
Top 10 marginals for main parties
Following the Boundary Commissions' reports recommending changes to seats in England and Wales, various estimates have been made of the electoral effect of the changes in each constituency. The most respected of these estimates is "The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" compiled and edited by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, which was published in February 2007.[38] The website UKPollingReport has also compiled estimates.[39] The various estimates differ in detail.
Arising out of those estimates, lists of the most marginal seats have been compiled. They are the seats where the party needs to overturn the lowest percentage majority to win the seat. These are not necessarily the seats where it will be easiest to do so, or the only seats that the party will actually be targeting at the next election.
N.B. The 'Winning Party' is notional (except in the case of Scottish constituencies), calculated on the Boundary Commission changes made to the seat, and may not be the same as the party that won the seat in the 2005 General Election.
Conservative targets
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillingham and Rainham
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.02 | |
| 2 | Crawley
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.04 | |
| 3 | York Outer
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FAA61A;" data-sort-value="Liberal Democrats (UK)" | |
Liberal Democrats | 0.22 | |
| 4 | Romsey and Southampton North
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FAA61A;" data-sort-value="Liberal Democrats (UK)" | |
Liberal Democrats | 0.23 | |
| 5 | Harlow
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.29 | |
| 6 | Cheltenham
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FAA61A;" data-sort-value="Liberal Democrats (UK)" | |
Liberal Democrats | 0.33 | |
| 7 | Croydon Central
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.36 | |
| 8 | Portsmouth North
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.38 | |
| 9 | Battersea
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.41 | |
| 10 | Hove
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.50 | |
Labour targets
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.03 | |
| 2 | Clwyd West
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.07 | |
| 3 | Hemel Hempstead
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.18 | |
| 4 | Kettering
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.20 | |
| 5 | North East Somerset
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.23 | |
| 6 | Finchley and Golders Green
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.35 | |
| 7 | Shipley
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.48 | |
| 8 | Dundee East
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 0.48 | |
| 9 | Rochester and Strood
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.57 | |
| 10 | Wellingborough
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.62 | |
Liberal Democrat targets
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guildford
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.09 | |
| 2 | Solihull
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.12 | |
| 3 | Rochdale
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.17 | |
| 4 | Oxford East
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.37 | |
| 5 | Edinburgh South
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.47 | |
| 6 | Hampstead and Kilburn
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.57 | |
| 7 | Eastbourne
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.70 | |
| 8 | Islington South and Finsbury
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.78 | |
| 9 | Watford
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 1.17 | |
| 10 | Ealing Central and Acton
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 1.37 | |
Nationalist targets (Plaid Cymru and SNP)
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ceredigion (Plaid Cymru)
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FAA61A;" data-sort-value="Liberal Democrats (UK)" | |
Liberal Democrats | 0.31 | |
| 2 | Ochil and South Perthshire (SNP)
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.74 | |
| 3 | Arfon (Plaid Cymru)
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.91 | |
| 4 | Ynys Môn (Plaid Cymru)
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 1.75 | |
| 5 | Dundee West (SNP)
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 7.28 | |
Note
- ^ Technically, the Parliament could vote to extend the lifetime of the current term beyond 5 years. This cannot be done by the House of Commons alone; it must be additionally approved by the House of Lords (the Parliament Acts may not be utilised in this case) and by the Queen-in-Parliament. Since 1911, extension of the maximum term of Parliaments has only been done during the First and Second World Wars. (Reference)
- ^ Election: How It Works — The General Election process. The Scotsman, April 5 2005
- ^ Labour 'warns of early election', BBC News Online, December 8 2006
- ^ Election set for 2008, Philip Webster, The Times, 25 June 2007.
- ^ Brown would 'renew' Labour Party, BBC News Online, 5 January 2007
- ^ Brown to stake all on Middle England, The Times, September 25, 2006
- ^ Liberal Democrats under my leadership would vote against any Queens Speech without a clear and unambiguous commitment for Proportional Representation, Menzies Campbell's personal website, February 15 2006
- ^ Battle's war is finally over, Yorkshire Evening Post, 23 October, 2006.
- ^ MP quits to back climate campaign, BBC News Online, January 30 2007.
- ^ Labour stalwart is to step down, The Journal (Newcastle-upon-Tyne), 10 October, 2006, p7
- ^ Dean to step down as town's MP, Uttoxeter Advertiser, 20 June 2007
- ^ City MP Bill to step down, Sunderland Echo, 9 December 2006
- ^ MP Neil Gerrard to stand down at next election, Waltham Forest Guardian, 23 February, 2007
- ^ Selby MP Grogan to stand down, York Press, 11 October, 2006
- ^ Keith Hill to Retire, Keith Hill MP for Streatham, 23 May, 2007
- ^ MP Brian to step down after 30 years, Manchester Evening News, 6 October, 2006
- ^ Jones won't defect to Lib Dems, Birmingham Post, 1 February, 2007
- ^ MP to step down at next election, Brighton and Hove Argus, 19 September, 2006
- ^ McCafferty to stand down at next election, Halifax Courier, 7 March, 2007
- ^ Bill to stand down as MP, Coventry Telegraph, 27 March 2007
- ^ BBC News (2007-06-21). "Sarwar plans to stand down as MP". Retrieved 2007-06-22.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Blair critic to stand down as MP, BBC News, 18 February, 2007
- ^ MP to hand over baton of power, Brighton and Hove Argus, 24 October, 2006.
- ^ Boswell set for farewell as Tory MP, Northampton Today, 31 March 2006.
- ^ Tory deputy chairman to step down, BBC News Online, 17 November 2006
- ^ "Michael Howard stands down as MP, BBC News Online, 17 March, 2006.
- ^ Veteran MP announces retirement, BBC News Online, November 24 2006
- ^ Sir Michael gets ready to bow out, Worcester News, 24 March, 2006.
- ^ 60 seconds: Ann Widdecombe, Metro, September 11 2006
- ^ Paul Keetch MP to stand down at General Election, LibDemVoice
- ^ Mark Oaten to quit Commons at election, The Independent, 26 July, 2006, p13.
- ^ Lib Dem MP Taylor to step down, BBC News Online, 18 May 2007
- ^ Lib Dem MP to retire from Commons, BBC News Online, 18 May 2007
- ^ In the East End, the war is personal now, The Guardian, 4 April, 2005, p8.
- ^ Salmond IS to stand for Gordon MSP seat, Buchan Observer, January 2006.
- ^ Clare Short: I'm standing down so I can speak the truth, The Independent, 14 September, 2006.
- ^ Clare Short resigns as Labour MP, BBC News Online, October 20 2006
- ^ Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre for BBC, ITN, PA News and Sky News. ISBN 0 948858 45 1.
- ^ UKPollingReport Election Guide, UK Polling Report, in association with YouGov
External links
Boundary changes
- Boundary Commission for England
- Boundary Commission for Wales
- Comisiwn Ffiniau i Gymru Template:Cy icon
- June 2006: Boundary changes make it more difficult for Labour to win an overall majority
