Wikipedia:In the news/Candidates: Difference between revisions
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==January 24== |
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==January 23== |
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==== Doomsday Clock ==== |
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*'''Oppose''' per Medeis, which is really the only argument against that is necessary in this discussion. Since we wouldn't post incremental updates to this event, we won't post it to ongoing. '''[[User:Bzweebl|<font color="#D60047">B</font><font color="#F0A000">zw</font><font color="#00A300">ee</font><font color="#0A47FF">bl</font>]]''' ([[User talk:Bzweebl|talk]] • [[Special:Contributions/Bzweebl|contribs]]) 23:35, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
*'''Oppose''' per Medeis, which is really the only argument against that is necessary in this discussion. Since we wouldn't post incremental updates to this event, we won't post it to ongoing. '''[[User:Bzweebl|<font color="#D60047">B</font><font color="#F0A000">zw</font><font color="#00A300">ee</font><font color="#0A47FF">bl</font>]]''' ([[User talk:Bzweebl|talk]] • [[Special:Contributions/Bzweebl|contribs]]) 23:35, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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==January 16== |
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==== Tonga island creation ==== |
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{{ITN candidate |
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| article = Tonga |
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| article2 = <!-- Do not wikilink - leave blank if nominating only one article --> |
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| image = |
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| blurb = Volcanic eruption creates a 1 km island near '''[[Nuku'alofa]]''', [[Tonga]]. |
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| recent deaths = <!-- (yes/no); instead of specifying a blurb the nomination can be for the "Recent deaths" line --> |
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| altblurb = A new island of 1 km diameter is created near '''[[Nuku'alofa]]''', [[Tonga]] due to a volcanic eruption. |
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| altblurb2 = <!-- A second alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| altblurb3 = <!-- A third alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| sources = [http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/tongan-volcano-creates-new-island-150117.htm Discovery News] [http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-16/tonga-volcano-creates-large-new-land-mass/6022094 ABC Net] |
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| updated = <!-- (yes/no); Leave blank if you aren't sure --> |
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| updated2 = <!-- (yes/no); only if there's a second article and article2 is filled in! Leave blank if unsure --> |
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| nominator = The Herald <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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| updater = <!-- Should be filled with the username of the person who has contributed the most to updates. --> |
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| updater2 = <!-- if more than one updater --> |
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| updater3 = <!-- if more than two updaters --> |
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| ITNR = no <!-- 'No' by default. Only put in 'yes' if the event is verified as ongoing by reliable sources. --> |
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| note = <!-- Can be used to note potential problems with the nomination or article. --> |
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| nom cmt = An important event which created such a huge island. Such phenomenon are rarer still. |
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| sign = - [[User:The Herald|'''The Herald''']] ([[User talk:The Herald|''here I am'']]) 14:47, 21 January 2015 (UTC) <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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}} |
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*'''Comment''' - A source more reliable than [[Daily Mail]] would probably be more appreciated.--[[User:WaltCip|WaltCip]] ([[User talk:WaltCip|talk]]) 14:58, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Comment'''. One with a more recent publication date too. It's useful that the article is already updated, though. [[User:FormerIP|Formerip]] ([[User talk:FormerIP|talk]]) 15:02, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Comment'''. This is an event that took place in November 2013, and is already covered in the [[Nishinoshima (Ogasawara)|Nishinoshima]] article. There has been no new island created since then. [[User:Michitaro|Michitaro]] ([[User talk:Michitaro|talk]]) 15:24, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::[http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/tonga-volcano-creates-new-island-but-it-could-soon-disappear-1.2198565 CTV] [http://www.irishexaminer.com/examviral/science-world/volcano-eruption-creates-new-island-in-pacific-ocean-308197.html Irish Examiner] and [http://zeenews.india.com/news/eco-news/volcanic-eruption-creates-new-island-in-tonga_1534104.html ZeeNews] also has it.. - [[User:The Herald|'''The Herald''']] ([[User talk:The Herald|''here I am'']]) 15:26, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::::The articles you cite are referring to the new island in Tonga, not in Nishinoshima in Japan. I repeat, there is no new island at Nishinoshima. [[User:Michitaro|Michitaro]] ([[User talk:Michitaro|talk]]) 15:29, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::But this isn't in new item. It was widely reported last year..... [[User:The Rambling Man|The Rambling Man]] ([[User talk:The Rambling Man|talk]]) 15:27, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::::OOPS..Sorry.. Can I have some time so as to update it?? - [[User:The Herald|'''The Herald''']] ([[User talk:The Herald|''here I am'']]) 15:31, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::::::@Rambling Man, these huge aren't created usually. - [[User:The Herald|'''The Herald''']] ([[User talk:The Herald|''here I am'']]) 15:42, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::::::It's not in the news. It's an old story. By all means update the article, but until you can provide us with evidence that this is in the news now about something that isn't stale, ITN isn't the place for this. [[User:The Rambling Man|The Rambling Man]] ([[User talk:The Rambling Man|talk]]) 15:35, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' in principle. The problem is the insufficient update. But the Discovery News article stating the 1km island was created (and erruptions are apparently ongoing) is dated the 17th, not today. [[User:Medeis|μηδείς]] ([[User talk:Medeis|talk]]) 17:39, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:: The news was added to the January 16th, so I moved this nomination accordingly. [[User:George Ho|George Ho]] ([[User talk:George Ho|talk]]) 18:59, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose'''. The reason the news media are not so interested in this island is that is just (and I mean just) offshore of an existing island. It is not interesting. <font face="Cambria">[[User:Abductive|<font color="teal">'''Abductive'''</font>]] ([[User talk:Abductive|reasoning]])</font> 17:07, 22 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::I am not sure how one can say this is not interesting, interest is a subjective matter. I am curious if this has been covered with any scientific papers? |
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==== [Closed] Shin Dong-hyuk recants parts of his story==== |
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{{archive top|No consensus to post. [[User:Stephen|Step]][[User talk:Stephen|hen]] 00:33, 22 January 2015 (UTC)}} |
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{{ITN candidate |
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| article = Shin Dong-hyuk |
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| article2 = <!-- Do not wikilink - leave blank if nominating only one article --> |
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| image = <!-- Name of image only; do not link. Please crop the image, if necessary. --> |
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| blurb = '''[[Shin Dong-hyuk]]''', who escaped from [[North Korea]], admits that parts of his life story as described in the book Escape from Camp 14 were inaccurate. |
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| recent deaths = <!-- (yes/no); instead of specifying a blurb the nomination can be for the "Recent deaths" line --> |
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| altblurb = <!-- An alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| altblurb2 = <!-- A second alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| altblurb3 = <!-- A third alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| sources = [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/world/asia/prominent-north-korean-defector-shin-dong-hyuk-recants-parts-of-his-story.html?_r=0 New York Times], [http://www.cbsnews.com/news/prominent-north-korean-defector-shin-dong-hyuks-story-questioned/ CBS News], [http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/18/asia/north-korea-defector-changes-story/ CNN], [http://time.com/3673272/north-korean-camp-survivor/ Time] |
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| updated = <!-- (yes/no); Leave blank if you aren't sure --> |
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| updated2 = <!-- (yes/no); only if there's a second article and article2 is filled in! Leave blank if unsure --> |
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| nominator = Everymorning <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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| updater = <!-- Should be filled with the username of the person who has contributed the most to updates. --> |
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| updater2 = <!-- if more than one updater --> |
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| updater3 = <!-- if more than two updaters --> |
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| ITNR = no <!-- 'No' by default. Only put in 'yes' if the event is verified as ongoing by reliable sources. --> |
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| note = <!-- Can be used to note potential problems with the nomination or article. --> |
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| nom cmt = Dong-hyuk was described by Time magazine in the link above as "one of the most high-profile survivors of North Korea’s political prisons". Also, according to the [http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/north-korea-prison-escapee-recants-story-article-1.2083618 New York Daily News], he is "The only known North Korean prison camp escapee". |
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| sign = [[User:Everymorning|<font color="orange">Everymorning</font>]] [[User talk:Everymorning|<font color="green">talk</font>]] 20:31, 19 January 2015 (UTC) <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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}} |
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*'''Oppose''', not really seeing the significance here, after reading I'm like "So...?" --[[User:AmaryllisGardener|'''<span style="color:#E0115F">Amaryllis</span><span style="color:#74C365">Gardener</span>''']] <sup>[[User talk:AmaryllisGardener|'''talk''']]</sup> 22:37, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' not getting it either. So he said stuff happened which didn't? Or he lied about the whole thing? Or what? [[User:The Rambling Man|The Rambling Man]] ([[User talk:The Rambling Man|talk]]) 20:53, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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{{archive bottom}} |
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==== Record warmth in 2014 ==== |
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{{ITN candidate |
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| article = Instrumental temperature record |
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| article2 = |
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| image = <!-- Name of image only; do not link. Please crop the image, if necessary. --> |
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| blurb = The US's [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] and [[NASA]] announce that 2014 was the '''[[Instrumental temperature record|hottest year on record]]'''. |
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| recent deaths = no |
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| sources = |
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| updated = no |
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| updated2 = |
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| altblurb = The [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] and [[NASA]] announce that 2014 was the '''[[Instrumental temperature record|hottest year on record]]'''. |
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| altblurb2 = A [[NASA]] report estimates that, with a 0.1C margin of error, worldwide temperatures in 2014 rose 0.02C over 2010, indicating a 38% chance 2014 was the '''[[Instrumental temperature record|warmest year since 1880]]'''. |
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| altblurb3 = A [[NASA]] report estimates that, with a 0.1 °C margin of error, worldwide temperatures in 2014 rose 0.02 °C over 2010, indicating a 38% chance that 2014 was the '''[[Instrumental temperature record|warmest year on record (1880-present)]]'''. |
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| ITNR = no |
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| note = |
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| nom cmt = No this doesn't happen every year. 1998 was one and I'm guessing 2007 cause of the record sea ice and maybe others but this is one of the most important topics of our century. |
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| sign = -- [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 21:29, 17 January 2015 (UTC) <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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}} |
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* '''Comment'''. The progression of previous all-time hottest years in the current NOAA and NASA time series are 1998, 2005, 2010. The new average is variously 0.02 C (NASA), 0.04 C (NOAA), 0.05 C (JMA), 0.01 C (Berkeley Earth) warmer than the previous warmest year depending on your choice of reporting agency (with two more research groups yet to report 2014). All of the groups have a reported uncertainty of at least +/- 0.05 C (95% confidence), meaning there will always be a bit of ambiguity about whether this is a true record. (That's true of most record years, as the slow evolution of the climate only very rarely sets a new record by more than our uncertainty in such measurements.) So far, there has been no update at either suggested target article. [[User:Dragons flight|Dragons flight]] ([[User talk:Dragons flight|talk]]) 22:04, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*::We could wait for the others to report before judging/analysing, or will it be old news by then? [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 22:24, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*:::The January to November time series for the other two groups suggests that each of these may have 2014 end up being slightly cooler than their previous warmest year (by a few hundredths of a degree C). If they keep to previous patterns, HadCRU will probably release their values middle to end of next week. I can't guess when the CW group will be ready. [[User:Dragons flight|Dragons flight]] ([[User talk:Dragons flight|talk]]) 23:12, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*::::I don't know what those names are, might it be better to post now or never? Also, [http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ here is the reason] why their 11-month year is colder. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 23:39, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*:::::The [[HadCRUT|HadCRU]] collaboration involves the United Kingdom's leading climate research group (sort of UK's NOAA, at least when it comes to climate). CW refers to smaller independent collaboration. Also, the possibility that they may have a colder year has nothing to do with ENSO. The 11-month average for HadCRU is colder than the corresponding 11-month average of the other groups, including Berkeley, making a miss somewhat likely. CW on the other hand previously estimated a relatively warmer 2010, making it unlikely that they will set a new record even if they finish 2014 at the same temperature as the other groups. But then we are talking about tiny differences of a few hundredths of a degree C, which shouldn't really be considered significant to begin with. [[User:Dragons flight|Dragons flight]] ([[User talk:Dragons flight|talk]]) 00:16, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*::::::So, what are those numbers if all the non-satellite data is removed? Satellites are the only temperature measuring tool that samples everywhere so since we're comparing this to a year in the satellite record this would improve the authoritativeness I think. Maybe change the blurb to "over an XX% chance of being the warmest" if need be? [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 06:36, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*:::::::Of the ones mentioned above, only NASA and CW use satellite data, and then only over regions poorly sampled by other methods. The others groups rely strictly on ground (or sea) level observations. Of the two major satellite groups, UAH and RSS, they are placing 2014 as either the 3rd or 6th warmest year respectively. Neither major satellite group thinks 2014 was the hottest year. The satellite-to-land comparison comes with some big caveats though. Satellite accuracy tends to degrade and drift with satellite age, which requires one to estimate and apply a large bias correction. In addition, satellites don't really measure the surface. The current technology measures something analogous to the average temperature of the lowest 5 to 10 km of the atmosphere. Some of the difference between satellite estimates and surface observations is presumably due to actual differences between surface temperature patterns and temperature patterns at a few km of altitude in atmosphere. Despite the coverage issues, I would tend to regard surface observations as much more authoritative for long-term changes in surface temperature patterns than the satellite-only temperature estimates. [[User:Dragons flight|Dragons flight]] ([[User talk:Dragons flight|talk]]) 07:04, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*::::::::Out of curiosity after which report would you support posting this if the 2 sigma value happened to be 0.01 Celsius over for all four? Would you wait many days for the other two and how would you word it if you didn't? I know little about statistics. Is there a way to rigorously say that this is the most probable value with all the information we have, this is it's meta-standard deviation that follows from basic (undergraduate) math and the studies' SDs? Then you can make a probability of this beating 2010. Though maybe only if you accept the studies as equally good. If you have to weigh them or even discard any in an attempt to get the most accurate value that would seem to introduce non-rigorous human hunches. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 21:04, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*:P.S. I changed the section header to something more clear. The previous title was "The latest advancement in the technology of planetary HVAC". [[User:Dragons flight|Dragons flight]] ([[User talk:Dragons flight|talk]]) 22:07, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*::Yes, that was a slight at the "warmer is good" way to deny. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 22:17, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*:::I think I'd have put your header if I'd thought of it. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 22:27, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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* '''Neutral''' Not that I'm denying global warming exists, but the average temperature for a single year does not necessary prove anything since there are random fluctuations that will affect that; as the global warming reports point out, it is the trend over many years that's the key to prove of global warming. --[[User:Masem|M<font size="-3">ASEM</font>]] ([[User Talk:Masem|t]]) 22:11, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**True, though a frequent parade (by historical standards) of new hottest years is a sign of the median rising. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 22:17, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*** That's why I think it's more newsworthy if it was the longest recorded streak of increasing temperatures, or highest over a much larger period. From a good science point, this is bordering on sensationalism news - an important data point that needs more context to understand better. --[[User:Masem|M<font size="-3">ASEM</font>]] ([[User Talk:Masem|t]]) 22:45, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**** As best as we can tell there is a trend of record years coming at an increasingly rapid pace (7 years, 5, and then 4) despite the fact that 1998 was a record El Niño (New York had only an inch of snow till winter was almost over, 26 inches is normal). [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 22:58, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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****And it's the highest in 135 years, before that was the [[Maunder Minimum]] (responsible for all the snowy European Christmas songs) so it's unlikely that a warmer year has happened for at least centuries. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 23:03, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' A notable record that is getting plenty of media coverage. Nobody is suggesting that this - as opposed to all the scientific studies and reports - is what proves global warming, but still having the warmest year ever recorded is something that is likely to be of interest to readers. [[User:Neljack|Neljack]] ([[User talk:Neljack|talk]]) 22:40, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' The earth has been far hotter in the past — see [[Geologic temperature record]] for details. Presenting the supposed record with proper context and qualification seems too complex to do in a simple headline. [[user:Andrew Davidson|Andrew D.]] ([[user talk:Andrew Davidson|talk]]) 23:04, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::Actually, I think that could be done quite simply by replacing "on record" (it is true that some temperature data going back millennia is technically "on record") with "since records began". [[User:FormerIP|Formerip]] ([[User talk:FormerIP|talk]]) 23:15, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::And the last time the climate was significantly warmer horses were smaller and there were all these saber-tooth and giant animals. If your species survived the end of the Ice Age then this: [[Holocene]] is normal. Now there's even a talk of the present geological epoch ending by us causing the [[Anthropocene]]. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 23:30, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::* The story is based on a [http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20150116/ single press-release] from NASA. Their headline is "''NASA, NOAA Find 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record''". What they seem to mean by "modern record" is "since 1880" and that doesn't seem to be a big deal in either historical or geological terms. The claim is based on two different datasets maintained by two different organisations - GISS and NOAA - but we don't seem to have articles about those particular datasets. Pointing readers to very general articles such as [[anthropogenic climate change]] or [[instrumental temperature record]] isn't good enough because they are full of detail about other temperature records such as [[HadCRUT]] and [[Central England temperature]] and the reader will then have difficulty figuring out what has actually happened. [[user:Andrew Davidson|Andrew D.]] ([[user talk:Andrew Davidson|talk]]) 09:28, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' - a very notable record of global importance.--[[User:BabbaQ|BabbaQ]] ([[User talk:BabbaQ|talk]]) 23:40, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Strong oppose main blurb''' certainly not the hottest year ''ever''. Also, the Earth's temperature has been fluctuating for a long time, just look at the 1970s "[[global cooling]]". P.S. '''Support alt blurb III''', wording isn't misleading like the main one. --[[User:AmaryllisGardener|'''<span style="color:#E0115F">Amaryllis</span><span style="color:#74C365">Gardener</span>''']] <sup>[[User talk:AmaryllisGardener|'''talk''']]</sup> 00:32, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**That article says in the ''second sentence'' that global cooling had little support in the scientific community. You seem nice, you don't have to believe the lies spread by disagreeable to psychopathic people (like oil CEOs) who'd let the world suffer just to stay filthy rich. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 06:36, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::*Then there's the [[Little Ice Age]] and [[Medieval Warm Period]], and even true [[Ice age]]s. I'm no "climate change denier", but where I'm from, our winters have been rough (cold and snowy) in the last couple years. Last year, we tied a record low of 2 degrees. Anyway, I don't know what your trying to get at with that last sentence? --[[User:AmaryllisGardener|'''<span style="color:#E0115F">Amaryllis</span><span style="color:#74C365">Gardener</span>''']] <sup>[[User talk:AmaryllisGardener|'''talk''']]</sup> 14:00, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::*The [[Little Ice Age]] was caused by the [[Maunder Minimum]] and volcanos. The [[Medieval Warm Period]] could've easily been caused by a hyperactive Sun it ''is'' like 10 times longer ago than the first active century in our sunspot counting, after all. The ice ages were caused by [[Milankovitch cycles|the Earth's tilt, how much closer it gets to the Sun every year than average, and the season that the hemisphere with more high-latitude land is in when it's closest to the Sun]]. What caused the temperature to rise since the 1970s? [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 18:49, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::::*{{ping|Sagittarian Milky Way}} "What caused the temperature to rise since the 1970s?", um, are you trying to tell me that people new what caused the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period as it was happening? I don't think so. --[[User:AmaryllisGardener|'''<span style="color:#E0115F">Amaryllis</span><span style="color:#74C365">Gardener</span>''']] <sup>[[User talk:AmaryllisGardener|'''talk''']]</sup> 01:31, 20 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::::*I'm sorry I somehow forgot about your ping but of course they didn't know. We have uninterrupted sunspot records going back centuries (Galileo was the first European to know sunspots existed around 1609). See the [[Maunder Minimum]], very well established, actually read [[Little Ice Age]], records of volcanos erupting, all very reasonable. It is obvious that if dim sunlight ([[Maunder Minimum]]) and below average temperatures (by pre-CO2 historical standards (3000 BC-1800s)) happened then strong sunlight (a hyperactive Sun) has to happen sometime, too. Hence, the [[Medieval Warm Period]] is totally reasonable to happen without extra carbon dioxide. But did you know that if we outlawed fire right now the temperature rise would still eventually double? Now *that* makes the [[Medieval Warm Period]] look like an extremely gently rolling and low hill: [[File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png| thumb|right|400px|This chart was made ten years before. We are well off the scale by now (almost 0.7 °C). Does it look like you want to be several chart heights off the scale? The rise is too steep to show on this graph and that's half as steep as it should be because of how long it takes for a planet to warm up. Does that look like random variation to you?]] There's no way we're getting out of this with anything less than 200 something percent of today's temperature rise, much less if we do nothing for another half-century or two. 5°C in 85 years is possible if we do that, [http://xkcd.com/1379/ as hot as a prehistoric Ice Age is cold]. ''Pleaaase'' just read that comic, it's only one frame. Also this is relevant to you: [http://xkcd.com/1321/] [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 23:13, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' sensationalist headline based on a very small dataset. [[User:Medeis|μηδείς]] ([[User talk:Medeis|talk]]) 04:59, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' Important milestone. Note it says "on record", not ever. [[User:The Four Deuces|TFD]] ([[User talk:The Four Deuces|talk]]) 05:17, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' we certainly post much less important records often enough. And yeah to those few opposes blurb says on record, not ever. [[Special:Contributions/84.248.158.8|84.248.158.8]] ([[User talk:84.248.158.8|talk]]) 06:58, 18 January 2015 (UTC) this was me, sorry wasn't logged in. [[User:SeraV|SeraV]] ([[User talk:SeraV|talk]]) 07:00, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::Yes, the very small data set alludes to "on record", doesn't it? One is reminded of all the hype about the Ozone Hole (!) which was reported as if it were some dire ''new'' development. The secret being of course, that the actual ''development'' was the launch of a satellite capable of detecting the Ozone Hole (!) which, as far as we know, may have existed for millions of years before we decided to look at it. Or, to give a simpler analogy, why do babies giggle endlessly at the game of peekaboo? If we had a set methodology, with the same measurements by the same instruments, worldwide, without reliance on models and assumptions, then this would be something to write home about. [[User:Medeis|μηδείς]] ([[User talk:Medeis|talk]]) 18:05, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::: No offense but for the love of crap, you sound brainwashed. The ozone hole increased until the 2000s and then decreased, just in line with what would happen if we stopped using century residence time CFCs in the 80s and early 90s. Also there was at least one ground based (spectroscopic?) ozone measurement from 1959 or so. It was fairly mild then and adequate to block ultraviolet so no one noticed. I think there may have been a lower resolution 1970s satellite and it took the ''decline'' by the mid-80s to get them worried. Please read the article before making up your mind about things like this, you sound like a creationist in that comment, really. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 02:23, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::::*{{ping|Sagittarian Milky Way}} Can we stick to discussing the blurb, and keep from using words like "brainwashed"? But that's nothing next to the statement "you sound like a creationist in that comment, really.", which IMO is a personal attack, making creationists out to be idiots (I'm a Christian, not that it matters here), and I don't know why our religions have anything to do with this, Medeis could be an atheist, Christian, or whatever, it doesn't have a thing to do with this blurbs suitability for ITN. I knew nothing good could come out of this nom. --[[User:AmaryllisGardener|'''<span style="color:#E0115F">Amaryllis</span><span style="color:#74C365">Gardener</span>''']] <sup>[[User talk:AmaryllisGardener|'''talk''']]</sup> 03:57, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::::*I only made that comment because I don't think s/he believes creationists and that s/he would see similar arguing style to his denialism/ultrasceptiscism from the outside and might even be led to realize that they're pretty similar. Medeis knows a lot about biology, has shown a good ability to think about it on [[WP:Reference Desk/Science]] and doesn't even believe in free will (as opposed to the brain basically being like a machine where billiard balls come in from the world through your senses and billiard balls go out to tap switches that run your body, is how I'd describe [[determinism]] to a non-science person) even though a [[quantum mind]] is so much more appealing and not scientifically ruled out so Medeis might not even be religious much less creationist. Anyway if Genesis 1-3 happened the Fall of Man gave us this crappy timeline with all the death and sin and corrupted Bibles cause that thing is terrible. All the genocide and marrying your rapist and slavery. The Big Bang happened in this timeline and there is overwhelming evidence for it so that is why people that like science generally think creationism is stupid. If they didn't have the arguing style that they do but instead vehemently believed that the Fall of Man gave us this terrible timeline with the unfulfilling evolution and mortality and corrupted Bibles and so that it is not infallible anymore then they wouldn't object so much. That makes much more sense but they say that it really happened in this universe. I used to believe the Bible and the just the NT and then just the Gospels until without thinking about them much until in 2012 I thought this used to be blasphemous but there's no way this man is God, He was a very good man for His time but He's just not holy enough. I can tell that this Man only seemed like God in a much more horrible world than now but He is not the ultimate man. So I'm not an atheist or anything. There is a God, but bi Scripture. Anyway I'm wondering how a smart user could believe so much about science except when it comes to "doubling the carbon dioxide <small>(it could happen)</small> is bad" and "CFCs are bad". And how Medeis got to be so conservative when s/he's from the East Coast and [[LGBTQ]]. I think I'm more wondering what's the reason s/he doesn't believe global warming. Have you ever put a thermometer in a vial of carbon dioxide? And left it in the sun? By what magic is this not going to happen in the atmosphere? Some [[homeostasis]] system that'll work this time but can't stop all the ice ages and the [[Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum]] and Cretaceous hothouse and the 20 feet higher sea level 100,000 years ago and no one that's a climate scientist thinks will happen? Medeis is scientific, I just don't get it. I'll try to be more civil. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 05:30, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::::*And I ''like'' Genesis 1-3, but this universe obeys physical laws and that did not happen in it. You kind of have to be a science person to "get" the creationist "putdown". You know some first-worlders still believe the world is flat, now ''that'' is dumb. "Flat-Earther" had a similar meaning several hundred years ago. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 06:54, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::Your ranting is hardly relevant, point of this blurb is that last year was found to be warmest year on modern record, just in case you missed that. That is interesting enough record to post this, your personal dislike for it doesn't make it any less important nor does it make it untrue. [[User:SeraV|SeraV]] ([[User talk:SeraV|talk]]) 18:42, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::::I repeat, this NASA press release is about our record keeping, not about reality, in just the same way peekaboo is about a baby not realizing that you don't cease to exist when it can't see you. My pointing out that this "in 135 years" statistic isn't even objective, since it's based on models and assumptions, not consistent worldwide readings by calibrated devices, is hardly ranting. And I have no idea what you mean by my "personal dislike" or where it's evinced. [[User:Medeis|μηδείς]] ([[User talk:Medeis|talk]]) 20:08, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::::And I repeat hottest year in 135 years in interesting enough in itself. And your nonsense is really starting to irk me. I think it quite clear from your irrevelant comparisons (peekaboo, really?) and general annoyance that you have your own agenda here. [[User:SeraV|SeraV]] ([[User talk:SeraV|talk]]) 21:19, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::::::{{ping|SeraV}} "And your nonsense is really starting to irk me. I think it quite clear from your irrevelant comparisons (peekaboo, really?) and general annoyance that you have your own agenda here." I don't think that was called for. I think Medeis is right, it's about the record keeping, not about reality, and his peekaboo example was silly, but it explains it well. --[[User:AmaryllisGardener|'''<span style="color:#E0115F">Amaryllis</span><span style="color:#74C365">Gardener</span>''']] <sup>[[User talk:AmaryllisGardener|'''talk''']]</sup> 22:20, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::::::: Of course you do, and I think he is wrong. Reality is that as long as we have been keeping records last year was hottest year "on record". Not many is contesting that here, and that is what the blurb is about. [[User:SeraV|SeraV]] ([[User talk:SeraV|talk]]) 22:39, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::::::: Actually it's only down to every 4 years now but yes, it's very frequent. No intelligent unbiased person who's studied this (in a "fan of sports"-like way not a get a PhD in it way) would think a year before true global measuring (and after 1879) has a realistic chance of beating 2014. They might even say that's almost impossible and I wouldn't argue with them. They would know how cold the 19th century and [[Little Ice Age]] was and say that the last warm period even close to the post-70s one is the [[Medieval Warm Period]] and that that could've been caused by an active Sun (given that we've had a [[Maunder Minimum]] and there were [[sunspots|huge Medieval sunspots]]). Trying to obfuscate when this is obvious is not useful. There's no need to play [[Devil's advocate]] or show how [[scientific scepticism|sceptical and scientific]] you are on the tiny chance that all the climatologists are wrong. So if Medeis isn't doing this he must want global warming to not be real God knows why despite the 40% extra carbon dioxide and being a biology PhD (I think, or at least he likes science and has a high knowledge of it). Since Venus has a ton of CO² and is 850 degrees hotter than [[Andrei|reflectivity]] predicts, and 400 degrees over a planet with 4 times the sunlight, it's up to the deniers to tell us why it's okay to dump 50 or 100% extra carbon into everyone's air. That's what the deniers want right? Use the fossil fuel reserves till 2100. It's not on the climatologists if they want to pollute everyone's property it's on the deniers to say by what mechanism the Earth will not warm when the greenhouse effect increases. This is paradoxical so it must be a homeostatic mechanism that a legion of climate scientists somehow haven't thought of or disproved. If there was some grand conspiracy more would speak out, scientists don't like falsehood. That is why I said these myths are started by disagreeable (at least) to psychopathic people because it is well known that the fossil fuel industry intentionally manufactures controversy and doubt to keep the con on for as long as possible just like the cigarette industry did. This is exactly what happened before they were found out and forced to pay [[Tobacco Master Settlement|tens of billions of dollars for it]]. If anyone went to jail (I don't know) they didn't fear it at the time because psychopaths have almost no fear, high pain tolerance and it would be impossible to punish them (short of literal 16 hour a day torture until death by old age, put a chip in their brain that would do that and increase it if the AI detects suffering and they would stop breaking laws). Though the simpler ones like "the sun is brighter" and "it's volcanos" are probably also started many times independently by people with a knee-jerk reaction to anything that sounds environmentalist. So they don't bother to look up that volcanos actually lower temperatures and the last solar cycle was weak. (2010 was the hottest on record with sunspot average that didn't breach 30, lol. It was near a very weak minimum.) It shouldn't be up to the most reckless and/or selfish and/or cold (both meanings, lol) to tell everyone how much carbon we can have. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 23:21, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::::::: How about ''those people's'' property rights? Those people that don't want more acid rain and water and hotter summers and stronger lake effect snow and less rain on their land? There is no such thing as libertarianism, because the atmosphere is not big enough. You're free to burn as much carbon as you want as long as you send it into space or something, though. And don't cause a [[Kessler syndrome|space junk chain reaction]]! And seal it so it doesn't come back! And put it thousands of kilometers high so that it doesn't re-enter! [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 23:32, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support'''. I've delayed voting a bit to see what the oppose votes were like. But, basically, we have "if it can't be proven that it's the hottest year since the Big Bang, then I'm not interested" and "even though an entire academic field thinks historical weather data is meaningful, it isn't". I suppose there is the question of when to post, given that there will be other studies published in the near future, but I can't see how anything other than the first one to call it makes sense - after that, it's old news revisited. I get that some people have eccentric views on climate change and some other people get irritated by that, but I don't see how any of that is very relevant here. The flow chart for whether this should be posted basically consists of "As a news topic, is the weather something that matters to everyday life and interests people?" and "Within the topic of weather, is temperature at all important?". [[User:FormerIP|Formerip]] ([[User talk:FormerIP|talk]]) 00:45, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''NASA climate scientists''': We said 2014 was the warmest year on record... '''''[http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html but we're only 38% sure we were right ]'''''. [[User:Medeis|μηδείς]] ([[User talk:Medeis|talk]]) 01:32, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**That's just a fancy way of saying this is somewhat over 50% chance of being over 2010 which itself is within the margin of error of 2005. It is still the best candidate for hottest year since 1880. And the recordholder of record, like the winner of the 2003 championship in college football. Should we have not posted that? Did you inherit a ton of Exxon stock in 2009 or something? That's got to make many people convince themselves that 42%+ more CO2 will find a way to not raise the temperature. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 03:16, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**Even a non-science person who knows nothing about this subject and has common sense could figure this out: more than two error bands overlapped. This is kind of like creationists. Ooh, look at this! Confirmation! Thinking stopped! I don't have to be sceptical anymore! Anti-denialists: Hey, what, you've got evidence, there must be something wrong, I will not stop until I find out something wrong with it, consequential or not. The Earth is not warming/old. (defensiveness, knee-jerking ease of resolving that, being chicken to have a genuine & complete look at the evidence to see which side is really right) |
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**And you're not even thinking you're defending the Word of God (in which case this would be good argumentation — if the Bible really was infalliable). What I'm really wondering is why you don't think global warming is real. Are you afraid of paying carbon taxes? It is a fairly small price to get off fossil fuels, less than the cost of not doing so. And you've already experienced extra economic gains from not switching earlier. It will only get costlier to switch the longer we wait to start due to having to do it faster, and the damage that's unavoidable will balloon. Also, I agree that it may have been rational to not start to switch until the end of the manufacturing-based economy, but to vigorously develop renewable energy after that. Then they would be mature technologies by now. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 03:48, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*SMW, I find your wall of text above almost impossible to parse, I see something about belief in God, and your odd attempt to make this about me personally. It's about the facts on one level and on a report by a single US gorvernmt agency on another, and has nothing to do with my preference for warm, dry summers and mild, wet winters.</br> |
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:I assume you are familiar with the [[three sigma rule]] for confidence in the physical sciences? In most cases, a likelihood within 3 standard deviation--a likelihood of 99.7% is taken as certainty. In the humanities, that's lowered to a two-standard deviation, 95% likelihood for claims of significance. Even at one standard deviation you're still looking at a 68% likelihood. |
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:In this press release, the certainty is 38%, not above 50%, not 68%, not the humanities' level of 95%, and not hard science's 99.7 percent standard. And the predicted increase over 2010 (The last warmest year) is 0.02•C, while the margin of error is a whopping 0.1•C, five times that amount. From the above linked source:<blockquote>In a press release on Friday, Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’.</br>The claim made headlines around the world, but yesterday it emerged that GISS’s analysis – based on readings from more than 3,000 measuring stations worldwide – is subject to a margin of error. Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all.</br>Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much.</br>As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted Nasa thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent.</blockquote>Given all this, we are left with an accurate blurb saying something like "NASA researcher's press release suggests 2014 is 38% likely to by one fiftieth of a degree warmer than 2010, with a tenth of a percent margin of error, 5 times greater than the number being "measured". [[User:Medeis|μηδείς]] ([[User talk:Medeis|talk]]) 17:19, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:I'll get to the blurb but your ultrascepticism of anthropogenic ozone holes seems to be a mental block against any evidence for it. Don't you think some chemist would speak out in 3 decades if full-strength short-wave UV didn't break down CFCs like it does to any other molecule, or if chlorine doesn't catalyze breakup of ozone which could be tested in any container, or if everyone made the same 4-function calculator errors calculating the quantity required? Or that they measured thick Antarctic ozone by balloon or spectroscope or something around [[International Geophysical Year]] (1957-58)? Creationists think they're defending the Word of God. What's your excuse? Not skimming the article before making up your mind on something that affects your worldview? I'm trying to show how that is kind of like creationists. They "know" that they're right, they don't need to test it. What's this? Something inconsequential like the name of the [[Holocene optimum]] or obsession with specific winter(s) and days that don't invalidate the core evidence? — Critical thinking stopped! I knew I was right! <post link>. Surprising for someone like that's so scientific (no irony intended). The records are just symbolic milestones, they don't have to be held up to the same standards as more important evidence. We could just write "NASA announces that the most likely value for 2014's average temperature beats the next highest on record by 0.04 °F (0.02 °C).". [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 18:17, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::About the [[Holocene optimum]] name fascination/weather obsession, the level of evidence on warming denial sites like [[Watts Up With That]] is often just that. It means they have nothing better to post. The ones that sound scientific (non-peer reviewed of course) cannot possibly be made honestly, they know what they're doing, kind of like those [[mathematical fallacy|false mathematical proofs]] of 1+1=1 or something like that. People would study how to sound sciency real hard for enough money, for one possible mechanism (of their existence). [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 18:29, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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* '''Today's news''' is that "[http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01/18/uk-weather-cold-snow_n_6496342.html As Britain braces itself for freezing weather, we have witnessed an avalanche of bets on 2015 being the coldest ever.]" My impression is that such weather records are easily broken because we haven't been recording them for very long. See [[list of weather records]] for a very long list of possibilities. Some newspapers such as the ''[[Daily Express]]'' regularly splash such stuff all over their front page and I suppose they do this because the British love to talk about the weather and so it sells. But we're supposed to be an encyclopedia with a historical perspective, not "[[WP:TABLOID|Phew, what a scorcher! / Brrr — winter drawers on!]]" [[user:Andrew Davidson|Andrew D.]] ([[user talk:Andrew Davidson|talk]]) 00:13, 20 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::Yes, there are a lot of possible weather records, and you can make even more news by interviewing bookmakers, it's true. But the hottest year ever recorded globally isn't really just a random record from the pack. [[User:FormerIP|Formerip]] ([[User talk:FormerIP|talk]]) 01:11, 20 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::[[File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg|thumb|right|400px|Does this *look* like we haven't been recording long enough? <small>(the dip is from [[global dimming|sun-blocking air pollution]])</small>]] And the people who say "It's cold! Global warming's fake!" are like a Vegas crap shooter that says "Every gambler in the city is ahead since they were born! The house edge isn't real!" every time he wins his throw(s). See [[global weirding]] for why global warming makes extreme hot weather *and* extreme cold. (Though at least a bit more of the former). [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) |
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*'''Support'''. Major scientific news. [[User:Gamaliel|<font color="DarkGreen">Gamaliel</font>]] <small>([[User talk:Gamaliel|<font color="DarkGreen">talk</font>]])</small> 04:11, 20 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:I think this should be posted now, with 6 supports and 3 opposes, consensus is there. Or if not then this discussion should be closed, since it has degenerated into a horrible ranting on all sides. [[User:SeraV|SeraV]] ([[User talk:SeraV|talk]]) 22:58, 20 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::Wait, I thought you didn't have to say you ''Support'' to support when you nominated? Shouldn't I be the 7th support? Also I remember that at least one oppose is something like "This is not the hottest year ever", which is ludicrous since the world was molten lava 4.5 billion years ago. That would certainly be notable but is that the bar? [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 23:59, 20 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' - per Nelljack and other supports. Global significance, obviously, and widely in the news. [[User:Jusdafax|<font color="green">Jus</font>]][[User talk:Jusdafax|<font color="C1118C">da</font>]][[Special:Contributions/Jusdafax|<font color="#0000FF">fax</font>]] 08:57, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Not Ready''' until there's an accurate blurb, something like, with a margin of error five times the size of the estimated .02C estimated rise over 2010,[http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html ref] the last record holder, a NASA scientist estimates there's a 38% chance[http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html ref] 2014 was the warmest year since 1880. Reporting this in absolute terms, with words like "hottest", is hardly neutral and informative. [[User:Medeis|μηδείς]] ([[User talk:Medeis|talk]]) 17:21, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::Nasa says last year was hottest on record still, daily mail says 38% change, why exactly would we believe daily mail over Nasa? Seriously stop messing around with this nomination, you are obliviously not neutral about this. [[User:SeraV|SeraV]] ([[User talk:SeraV|talk]]) 17:54, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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***Accurate blurb available. Also, most readers can divide 0.1 by 0.02, pointing that it is kind of POV as it doesn't cast doubt on even the less rigorous evidence for CO2 causes global warming, like that freaking chart. The Daily Mail, on the other hand, is tabloid rubbish. Also you made a 0.02C sandwich out of estimated bread, did you notice that? [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 18:09, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::And it should be like 0.02 °C as that is the proper way to write Celsius. Since the real previous warmer year was very likely either Medieval, tens of centuries ago, or roughly 1,000 centuries ago pointing out that the 1880 is because of insufficient data is important. Thus altblurb III. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 18:28, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Comment''' Neither nominated article is ready. I don't see any mention of 2014 being the hottest year on record in the highlighted [[Global warming]] or [[Instrumental temperature record]] articles. The blurb's statement must be included in the article. It is certainly notable enough to be. Additionally, [[Anthropogenic climate change]] is simply a redirect to [[Global warming]] so I've changed the blurbs' link. [[User:Mamyles|Mamyles]] ([[User talk:Mamyles|talk]]) 18:18, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**It does look pretty hairy to add it in, more suited for someone who's added references in cluttered "reference + extra complex science paper template soup" articles before or one of our more Aspergic minds that find programming code readable. It would take me much longer. Should I defer to another editor? [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 18:47, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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***I'm not confident that [[Global warming]] is the best article to add this in. It takes a very high-level overview of the subject, and would probably not benefit from such a specific fragment as that 2014 is the warmest year on record. I recommend putting it into [[Instrumental temperature record]] and making that the blurb's featured article. [[User:Mamyles|Mamyles]] ([[User talk:Mamyles|talk]]) 19:09, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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****While it would be a good idea get people reading the main article, I just saw the nice hottest years list on [[Instrumental temperature record]] and would have to agree with you. Plus, much easier to update, lol. The references are NOAA not NASA, though. Who was it that broke the story? Or is more authoritative? I would guess NOAA cause they have a climate data center, the official US weather bureau and weather satellites and NASA is just a space agency, but what do I know? [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 20:32, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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I updated [[Instrumental temperature record]]. Whether more prose is needed, I don't know. There's not much to say without going into more detail on one single year than that section gives. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 22:06, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*I'll withdraw my altblurb 2 in favor of altblurb 3 as better formated. Also, the target article is ''[https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Global_warming&diff=643490183&oldid=643489858 not updated]'' as of yet. [[User:Medeis|μηδείς]] ([[User talk:Medeis|talk]]) 22:25, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' posting this record year with [[Instrumental temperature record]] as the target article. I believe [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian's]] updates to that article are sufficient. I've taken the initiative to change the blurbs' target article, and re-mark this as [Ready]. I prefer Alternative Blurb 1. [[User:Mamyles|Mamyles]] ([[User talk:Mamyles|talk]]) 23:08, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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[[File:Warming_since_1880_yearly.jpg|thumb|right]] |
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*'''Meanwhile''' I don't get the impression that this is really "in the news". All that seemed to happen was that NASA put out a press-release and this was repeated by various media in the usual lazy way of modern [[churnalism]]. The story doesn't seem to have persisted though. For example, if you look on the BBC web site, the story isn't in their sections for [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/ World News] or even [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science_and_environment/ Science & Environment]. As the margin of the supposed record is smaller than the error bar, and the mean temperature is much the same as other recent years, the figures seem to indicate, not that we have some novel new spike, but that the temperature trend has plateaued, as described in [[global warming hiatus]]. How about about we add this new datapoint to the graph of NASA GISS temps to see if it looks any different. [[user:Andrew Davidson|Andrew D.]] ([[user talk:Andrew Davidson|talk]]) 01:19, 22 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**That article says that this is very unlikely to be repeated after 2030 even if a very strong volcanic eruption happens then. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 02:22, 22 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*I've gone ahead and removed the ready tag. We need more of a prose update than [https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Instrumental_temperature_record&diff=643577188&oldid=642732758 this]. [[User:Calidum|<span style="color:#C60C30; font-family:serif">'''-- ''Calidum'''''</span>]] 02:39, 22 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**Is it better now? I could add even more about the year in question but the section is called Warmest years. [[User:Sagittarian Milky Way|Sagittarian Milky Way]] ([[User talk:Sagittarian Milky Way|talk]]) 03:41, 22 January 2015 (UTC) |
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==== 2015 Malawi flood ==== |
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{{ITN candidate |
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| article = 2015 Malawi flood |
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| article2 = <!-- Do not wikilink - leave blank if nominating only one article --> |
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| image = <!-- Name of image only; do not link. Please crop the image, if necessary. --> |
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| blurb = '''[[2015 Malawi flood|Floods]]''' in [[Malawi]] kill at least 176 people. |
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| recent deaths = <!-- (yes/no); instead of specifying a blurb the nomination can be for the "Recent deaths" line --> |
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| altblurb = <!-- An alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| altblurb2 = <!-- A second alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| altblurb3 = <!-- A third alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| sources = [http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/international-aid-flood-stricken-mozambique-malawi-28269721 ABC News], [http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30854140 BBC News] |
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| updated = <!-- (yes/no); Leave blank if you aren't sure --> |
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| updated2 = <!-- (yes/no); only if there's a second article and article2 is filled in! Leave blank if unsure --> |
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| nominator = Everymorning <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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| updater = <!-- Should be filled with the username of the person who has contributed the most to updates. --> |
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| updater2 = <!-- if more than one updater --> |
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| updater3 = <!-- if more than two updaters --> |
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| ITNR = no <!-- 'No' by default. Only put in 'yes' if the event is verified as ongoing by reliable sources. --> |
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| note = Article is way too short to be posted in its current state. |
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| nom cmt = Very large number of deaths. Confusingly, there were stories about floods in Malawi a few days ago that gave the death toll as about 48, presumably those are the same floods that are the subject of this article. [http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/14/us-malawi-floods-idUSKBN0KN0NL20150114] |
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| sign = --[[User:Everymorning|<font color="orange">Everymorning</font>]] [[User talk:Everymorning|<font color="green">talk</font>]] 22:24, 16 January 2015 (UTC) <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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}} |
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*'''Support''' subject to expansion, in light of the death toll. I note that the article and the BBC News report refer to at least 170 deaths (the ABC News article from the AP refers to 176), so perhaps the blurb should be changed to reflect that. [[User:Neljack|Neljack]] ([[User talk:Neljack|talk]]) 00:13, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' definitely for itn.--[[User:BabbaQ|BabbaQ]] ([[User talk:BabbaQ|talk]]) 21:08, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' article is dreadful. Before supporting, others should become familiar with what is required, as a minimum, to see a new item at ITN. Please stop supporting items that are woefully inadequate. At the very least note that you support the significance of the item yet oppose the quality of the article. If you don't feel able to assess the quality of the article, you should only comment on the significance and indicate that you are unable to comment on the suitability of the update. [[User:The Rambling Man|The Rambling Man]] ([[User talk:The Rambling Man|talk]]) 20:50, 18 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''', article is in horrible shape, it doesn't matter about anything else. --[[User:AmaryllisGardener|'''<span style="color:#E0115F">Amaryllis</span><span style="color:#74C365">Gardener</span>''']] <sup>[[User talk:AmaryllisGardener|'''talk''']]</sup> 15:13, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Comment''' that is an example of [[Wikipedia:Systemic bias|systemic bias]]. See [[User:331dot|331dot]]? --[[User:Jenda H.|Jenda H.]] ([[User talk:Jenda H.|talk]]) 21:49, 19 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:*I'm not entirely sure what you are getting at, but an article in poor shape should not be posted on systemic bias grounds. [[User:331dot|331dot]] ([[User talk:331dot|talk]]) 00:03, 20 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' upon article improvement. A notable disaster, but article needs to be in decent shape. [[User:331dot|331dot]] ([[User talk:331dot|talk]]) 00:09, 20 January 2015 (UTC) |
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==== [Closed] SCOTUS to hear same sex marriage cases ==== |
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{{archive top|close given total lack of support; the decision, when it comes, can be nominated, of course. [[User:Medeis|μηδείς]] ([[User talk:Medeis|talk]]) 16:49, 17 January 2015 (UTC)}} |
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{{ITN candidate |
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| article = Same-sex marriage in the United States |
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| article2 = <!-- Do not wikilink - leave blank if nominating only one article --> |
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| image = <!-- Name of image only; do not link. Please crop the image, if necessary. --> |
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| blurb = The [[Supreme Court of the United States]] accepts to hear arguments on four cases relating to ''[[Same-sex marriage in the United States|same-sex marriages]]''. |
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| recent deaths = <!-- (yes/no); instead of specifying a blurb the nomination can be for the "Recent deaths" line --> |
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| altblurb = <!-- An alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| altblurb2 = <!-- A second alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| altblurb3 = <!-- A third alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| sources = [http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/01/16/supreme-court-gay-marriage/21867355/ USA Today], [http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/16/politics/republicans-gay-marriage/ CNN], [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/us/supreme-court-to-decide-whether-gays-nationwide-can-marry.html NYTimes], [http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-30855786 BBC] |
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| updated = yes |
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| updated2 = <!-- (yes/no); only if there's a second article and article2 is filled in! Leave blank if unsure --> |
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| nominator = Masem <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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| updater = Bmclaughlin9 |
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| updater2 = <!-- if more than one updater --> |
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| updater3 = <!-- if more than two updaters --> |
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| ITNR = no <!-- 'No' by default. Only put in 'yes' if the event is verified as ongoing by reliable sources. --> |
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| note = <!-- Can be used to note potential problems with the nomination or article. --> |
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| nom cmt = I know normal ITN practice is to report on the result of a case, but SCOTUS and same sex marriage has been the elephant in the room for US politics for years, and now that they've actually gone to accept the case(s) that will decide the legality of the marriages across the entire US, is big news, and as the CNN linked article above reports, the fact they will hear it could affect the way the 2016 presidential campaign is run. (The ruling is not expected until June). It should be noted that SCOTUS has had some previous cases but limited to federal gov't recognition and to a specific state law. |
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| sign = --[[User:Masem|M<font size="-3">ASEM</font>]] ([[User Talk:Masem|t]]) 21:24, 16 January 2015 (UTC) <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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}} |
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*'''Oppose'''. Not even a ruling yet, and there better not be an artice on this yet either. <font face="Cambria">[[User:Abductive|<font color="teal">'''Abductive'''</font>]] ([[User talk:Abductive|reasoning]])</font> 21:29, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' per Masem. [[User:The Rambling Man|The Rambling Man]] ([[User talk:The Rambling Man|talk]]) 21:30, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' and oppose if/when it becomes a ruling. Because we have developed a bit of a bias problem in terms of ''always'' rejecting stories to do with gay marriage (on the grounds that it's, apparently, no longer a big deal), except when they happen in the US, where our approach is to post absolutely anything and everything related to gay marriage. It's just not on. [[User:FormerIP|Formerip]] ([[User talk:FormerIP|talk]]) 21:36, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' per FormerIP. US bias on gay marriage news is a problem. --[[User:AmaryllisGardener|'''<span style="color:#E0115F">Amaryllis</span><span style="color:#74C365">Gardener</span>''']] <sup>[[User talk:AmaryllisGardener|'''talk''']]</sup> 22:13, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' I can't see how the decision to hear a case is sufficiently important for ITN. [[User:Neljack|Neljack]] ([[User talk:Neljack|talk]]) 00:16, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' this news, but support if the court decides in favor of gay marriage. If it becomes legal, the US will become the largest country where it is recognized. [[User:DHN|DHN]] ([[User talk:DHN|talk]]) 01:23, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose'''. While the eventual ruling might be worthy of a post (will need to evaluated when this future event occurs), [[Certiorari|SCOTUS granting cert]] for a case is below the threshold. --''[[User: Allen3|Allen3]]'' <sup>[[User talk:Allen3|talk]]</sup> 01:31, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' posting this; we should wait until the ruling comes down, if even then. [[User:331dot|331dot]] ([[User talk:331dot|talk]]) 03:36, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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{{archive bottom}} |
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==== [Posted] Beagle 2 found on Mars ==== |
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{{ITN candidate |
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| article = Beagle 2 |
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| article2 = <!-- Do not wikilink - leave blank if nominating only one article --> |
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| image = <!-- Name of image only; do not link. Please crop the image, if necessary. --> |
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| blurb = Lost British probe '''[[Beagle 2]]''' has been found landed intact on the Mars surface. |
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| recent deaths = <!-- (yes/no); instead of specifying a blurb the nomination can be for the "Recent deaths" line --> |
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| altblurb = <!-- An alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| altblurb2 = <!-- A second alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| altblurb3 = <!-- A third alternative blurb. Leave blank if not needed --> |
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| sources = [http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30784886 BBC News] |
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| updated = <!-- (yes/no); Leave blank if you aren't sure --> |
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| updated2 = <!-- (yes/no); only if there's a second article and article2 is filled in! Leave blank if unsure --> |
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| nominator = Hektor <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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| updater = <!-- Should be filled with the username of the person who has contributed the most to updates. --> |
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| updater2 = <!-- if more than one updater --> |
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| updater3 = <!-- if more than two updaters --> |
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| ITNR = no <!-- 'No' by default. Only put in 'yes' if the event is verified as ongoing by reliable sources. --> |
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| note = <!-- Can be used to note potential problems with the nomination or article. --> |
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| nom cmt = It has been found that the landing of Beagle 2 was successful, although the probe did not deploy properly afterwards. It is a major achievement in the history of British and European astronautics. Beagle landed just 5km from the centre of its targeted touchdown zone.<!-- Add the reason for nominating the item. --> |
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| sign = [[User:Hektor|Hektor]] ([[User talk:Hektor|talk]]) 16:11, 16 January 2015 (UTC)-- <!-- Do NOT change this --> |
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}} |
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* '''Support''' with article updates (it's got some, could use a bit of touchup - including what tense to use to describe the probe since it still exists obviously...) --[[User:Masem|M<font size="-3">ASEM</font>]] ([[User Talk:Masem|t]]) 16:17, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' seems a little misleading to say "it's been found", as far as I could tell some half a dozen pixels in some "high resolution" images depicted what they believe to be Beagle 2. I'm not suggesting that the story is fake, but I'm just questioning the real significance of finding the probe which isn't doing much. It'd be the same (for me) if something took a picture of the footprints on the Moon (should they still be there), in other words, what's the actual story? [[User:The Rambling Man|The Rambling Man]] ([[User talk:The Rambling Man|talk]]) 18:59, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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** Part of the story is that while they are basing images on pixels, they are pretty confident given the location (which they knew they were aiming for) and can recognize that the probe is technically intact on the surface - it made its landing but it did not deploy the solar panels. So we know its fate - that it successfully landed but did not complete deployment correctly. I'm sure that with further passes of the observer - now they know where to focus, they will get better images for future study. --[[User:Masem|M<font size="-3">ASEM</font>]] ([[User Talk:Masem|t]]) 20:45, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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***I'm sure you're right, but it's analogous to finding an Air Asia fuselage... (which I've been told isn't newsworthy) [[User:The Rambling Man|The Rambling Man]] ([[User talk:The Rambling Man|talk]]) 20:50, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**** If they found it only 12 years later after it disappeared, it might just be newsworthy. --[[User:Njardarlogar|Njardarlogar]] ([[User talk:Njardarlogar|talk]]) 12:36, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*****Sure! [[User:The Rambling Man|The Rambling Man]] ([[User talk:The Rambling Man|talk]]) 21:02, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Weak support'''. It was kind of a unique mission and a famous failure, and it's interesting that they have found it, so I wouldn't really object to this going up. "Found" isn't really misleading at all. There doesn't seem to be any doubt that the thing that's been located is the robot. If one moment you don't know where something is and the next moment you do, that means you have found it. [[User:FormerIP|Formerip]] ([[User talk:FormerIP|talk]]) 20:39, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Weak support'''. <small>What's the [[Beagle (crater)|big deal]]? A dog is not just for [[Christmas on Mars|Christmas]], you know.</small> [[User:Martinevans123|Martinevans123]] ([[User talk:Martinevans123|talk]]) 20:45, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose'''. This story fails the ITN criterion that it have lasting impact (or should I say import?). The discovery does not explain the failure, and is but a historical footnote. <font face="Cambria">[[User:Abductive|<font color="teal">'''Abductive'''</font>]] ([[User talk:Abductive|reasoning]])</font> 21:21, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::Not that it invalidates your vote, but it seems that the discovery does explain the failure, because they've been able to identify that the robot landed safely but its solar panels didn't deploy properly. [[User:FormerIP|Formerip]] ([[User talk:FormerIP|talk]]) 21:37, 16 January 2015 (UTC) |
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:::Really? WHY didn't the solar panels deploy properly? <font face="Cambria">[[User:Abductive|<font color="teal">'''Abductive'''</font>]] ([[User talk:Abductive|reasoning]])</font> 00:17, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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::::Mechanical failure. I suppose now you're going to ask me why there was a mechanical failure, so let's cut to the chase and admit that there is never such a thing as a complete explanation. [[User:FormerIP|Formerip]] ([[User talk:FormerIP|talk]]) 00:21, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Oppose''' per Abductive and TRM. [[User:Neljack|Neljack]] ([[User talk:Neljack|talk]]) 00:09, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support'''. For 12 years it had been assumed that the probe crashed on Mars. However, all this time later it has been found that this long-held theory was incorrect and the probe landed safely but a minor mechanical failure prevented it completely setting its self up. This is a significant update to a significant event in the history of Mars exploration. [[User:Thryduulf|Thryduulf]] ([[User talk:Thryduulf|talk]]) 20:51, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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**Agree it's a surprise, but the article just says: "Beagle 2 may have crashed on to the planet or even possibly landed successfully" i.e. no one knows if there was "a minor mechanical failure" or anything else - all we have is an image. [[User:Martinevans123|Martinevans123]] ([[User talk:Martinevans123|talk]]) 20:59, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Weak support''' - seems notable enough. and has been covered ever since.--[[User:BabbaQ|BabbaQ]] ([[User talk:BabbaQ|talk]]) 21:10, 17 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' - The story has strong international interest and solves a long-term mystery. Widely in the news. Also now becomes the first European soft landing on Mars, though 2 solar panels did not deploy. Let's post it. [[User:Jusdafax|<font color="green">Jus</font>]][[User talk:Jusdafax|<font color="C1118C">da</font>]][[Special:Contributions/Jusdafax|<font color="#0000FF">fax</font>]] 08:52, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Support''' - an interesting bit of history and still a relatively significant discovery. How many others have landed on Mars? [[User:Simply south|Simply]] [[User talk:Simply south|south]] ....[[User:Simply south/Poem|..]] ''sitting on fans for just 8 years'' 11:53, 21 January 2015 (UTC) |
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*'''Posted''' [[User:Stephen|Step]][[User talk:Stephen|hen]] 00:24, 22 January 2015 (UTC) |
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==References== |
==References== |
Revision as of 00:00, 24 January 2015
In the news toolbox |
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This page provides a place to discuss new items for inclusion on In the news (ITN), a protected template on the Main Page (see past items in the ITN archives). Do not report errors in ITN items that are already on the Main Page here— discuss those at the relevant section of WP:ERRORS.
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