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Opinion polling for the 2014 Indian general election

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In the run up to the Indian general election, 2014, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2013 to April 2014. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.

Background

Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]

Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]

Post-poll surveys, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.[3] According to a study, post-poll surveys in the past have consistently overestimated BJP seats.[4]

Opinion polls

Seats

NDTV - Hansa Research seat predictions
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
UPA NDA Left Other
Jan–Mar 2013 [5] Times Now-CVoter No sample size provided 128 184 – –
Apr–May 2013 [6] Headlines Today-CVoter 120,000 209 (without Modi)
155(with Modi) 		179(without Modi)
220 (with Modi) 		– –
May 2013 [7] ABP News-Nielsen 33,408 136 206 – –
Jul 2013 [8] The Week – Hansa Research No sample size provided 184 197 – 162
Jul 2013 [9] CNN-IBN and The Hindu by CSDS 19,062[10] 149–157 172–180 – 208–224
Jul 2013 [11] Times Now-India Today-CVoter 36,914 134 (INC 119) 156 (BJP 131) – –
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 117 (INC 102) 186 (BJP 162) – 240
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 103 (INC 91) 212 (BJP 188) – 228
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [14] ABP News-Nielsen 64,006[15] 101 (INC 81) 226 (BJP 210) – 216
Jan 2014 [16] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 18,591[17] 107 – 127
(INC 92 – 108) 		211 – 231
(BJP 192 – 210) 		– 205
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000[19] 101 (INC 89) 227 (BJP 202) – 215
Feb 2014 [15] ABP News-Nielsen 29,000 92 236 29 186
Feb 2014 [20] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 29,000 119 – 139
(INC 94 – 110) 		212 – 232
(BJP 193 – 213) 		105–193
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 128 230 55 130
March 2014 [22] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 20,957 111–123 234–246 174–198
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000[24] 111 (INC 92) 275 (BJP 226) 157

Votes

NDTV - Hansa Research vote share predictions
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
UPA NDA Left Other
December 2013 – January 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 23% 34% – 43%
December 2013 – January 2014 [14] ABP News-Nielsen 64,006[15] 23% 31% 5% 41%
January 2014 [16] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 18,591[17] 36% (INC 27%) 28% (BJP 34%) 4% 32%
February 2014 [15] ABP News-Nielsen 20 46 5% 40%
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 25.6% 34.5% 39.9%

Graphs

100
200
300
400
500
600
ABP News-Jan
CNN-IBN-Jan
Times Now-Feb
ABP News-Feb
CNN-IBN-Feb
NDTV-March
CNN-IBN-March
NDTV-April
  •   NDA
  •   UPA
  •   Others
50
100
150
200
250
300
ABP News-Jan
CNN-IBN-Jan
Times Now-Feb
ABP News-Feb
CNN-IBN-Feb
NDTV-March
CNN-IBN-March
NDTV-April
  •   NDA
  •   UPA
  •   Others

Statewise opinion polling

Andhra Pradesh (42)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Andhra Pradesh

  BJP +TDP Alliance - 18 seats
  YSR Congress - 9 seats
  TRS - 8 seats
  INC - 6 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP TDP YSR Congress TRS
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 7 – 8 13 13
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 7 – 8 13 13
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 6 2 10 13 10
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research[25] 46,571 6 9 15 11
March–April 2014 [26] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1308 4–8 13–19 9–15 4–8
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research[27] 24,000 6 18 9 8
4–12 April 2014 [28] India Today-Cicero 1358 4–6 17–21 7–11 6–10

Arunachal Pradesh (2)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 1

Assam (14)

 
 
 

NDTV - Hansa Research March 2014 opinion poll for Assam

  INC - 12 seats
  BJP - 1 seats
  Others - 1 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP AGP AUDF BPF
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 9 3 0 1 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 7 5 0 1 1
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research[29] 46,571 12 1 0 0 0

Bihar (40)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Bihar

  BJP+LJP Alliance - 24 seats
  INC +RJD+NCP Alliance - 12 seats
  JD(U) - 4 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC-RJD-NCP BJP-LJP JD(U) Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 15 15 9 1
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 13 22 4 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 13 22 5 0
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 11 23 5 1
March–April 2014 [30] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1557 7–13 21–29 2–5 0–3
30 March – 2 April 2014 [31] India Today-Cicero 1498 15–19 20–24 0–2 0–1
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 12 24 4 0

Chhattisgarh (11)

 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Chhattisgarh

  BJP - 8 seats
  INC - 3 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 3 8
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 3 8
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 2 9
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 3 8

Goa (2)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 1

Gujarat (26)

 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Gujarat

  BJP - 22 seats
  INC - 4 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 4 22 0
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 5 21 0
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 4 22 0
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 3 23 0
March–April 2014 [32] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 917 0–4 20–26 0–2
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 4 22 0

Haryana (10)

 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Haryana

  BJP +HJC Alliance - 6 seats
  INC - 2 seats
  INLD - 2 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP-HJC INLD AAP
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 5 4 1 0
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 7 1 1
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 3 7 0 0
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 2 6 2 0

Himachal Pradesh (4)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 3
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 3

Jammu and Kashmir (6)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP PDP NC Others (IND. & People's Conference)
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 1 1 2 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 2 2 1 0

Jharkhand (14)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Jharkhand

  BJP - 12 seats
  INC - 1 seats
  JMM - 1 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP JMM JVM Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 6 2 3 2
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 8 2 2 1
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 4 6 2 0 2
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 1 12 1 0 0

Karnataka (28)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Karnataka

  BJP - 12 seats
  INC - 14 seats
  JD(S) - 2 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP JD(S) AAP Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 13 12 3 0 0
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 12 13 0 0 3
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 14 11 2 1 0
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 6 20 2 0 0
March–April 2014 [33] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 825 12–18 7–13 1 – 4
(Including Others)		 0 1 – 4
(Including JD(S))
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 14 12 2 0 0

Kerala (20)

 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Kerala

  LDF - 12 seats
  UDF - 8 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color |
BJP LDF INC KC(M) IUML
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 0 13 4 1 2
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter[34] 21,792 – 11 6 – –
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 9 7 1 2
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 0 13 7
(As UDF)
March–April 2014 [35] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 607 0 4–8 11 – 17
(As UDF)
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 0 12 8
(As UDF)

Madhya Pradesh (29)

 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Madhya Pradesh

  BJP - 26 seats
  INC - 3 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP BSP Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 6 23 0 0
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 6 22 0 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 5 24 0 0
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 4 24 1 0
March–April 2014 [36] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1121 1–5 24–28 0 0
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 3 26 0 0

Maharashtra (48)

 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Maharashtra

  BJP +Shiv Sena Alliance - 37 seats
  INC +NCP Alliance - 9 seats
  Others - 2 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC NCP BJP[37] SS Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 11 6 15 14 2
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 9 5 14 14 6
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 8 5 17 15 3
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 12 33 3
March 2014 [38] ABP News-Nielsen Not Available 8 5 19 12 4
March–April 2014 [39] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1662 16–22 24–30 1–3
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 9 37 2

Manipur (2)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 2 0 0
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0 1

Meghalaya (2)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color |
INC NPP
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 1

Mizoram (1)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color |
INC Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 0 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0

Nagaland (1)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size
NPF Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 0
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0

Odisha (21)

 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Odisha

  BJD - 13 seats
  BJP - 7 seats
  INC - 1 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP BJD Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 9 0 12 0
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 8 0 13 0
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 7 2 12 0
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 3 1 17 0
March–April 2014 [40] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 796 0–4 3–7 10–16 0–2
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 1 7 13 0

Punjab (13)

 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Punjab

  BJP +SAD Alliance - 7 seats
  INC - 6 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP SAD
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 4 2 7
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 6 2 5
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 8 5
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 6 7

Rajasthan (25)

 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Rajasthan

  BJP - 21 seats
  INC - 3 seats
  Others - 1 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 5 19 1
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 3 21 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 4 21 0
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 5 19 1
March–April 2014 [41] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 837 0–2 21–25 0–2
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 3 21 1

Sikkim (1)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP SDF
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 0 0 1

Tamil Nadu (39)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Tamil Nadu

  AIADMK - 22 seats
  DMK Alliance - 14 seats
  BJP Alliance - 3 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP AIADMK DMK Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 0 28 5 5
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 0 – 29 5 5
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0 27 5 6
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 0 0 27 10 2
March–April 2014 [42] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1460 0 6 – 10
(In alliance)		 15–21 10 – 16
(In alliance)		 0
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 0 3
(In alliance)		 22 14
(In alliance)		 0
4–12 April 2014 [28] India Today-Cicero 1358 0 4 – 6
(In alliance)		 20–24 9 – 13
(In alliance)		 0–2

Tripura (2)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP CPI(M)
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 0 0 2
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 0 0 2

Uttar Pradesh (80)

 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Uttar Pradesh

  BJP - 73 seats
  INC - 2 seats
  BSP - 0 seats
  SP - 5 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP SP BSP Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 7 17 25 31 0
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 4 30 20 24 2
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [43] ABP News-Nielsen 64,006 12 35 14 15 4
Jan–Feb 2014 [44] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 5 34 20 21 0
Feb 2014 [45] ABP News-Nielsen 29,000 11 40 13 14 2
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 12 40 13 15 0
March–April 2014 [46] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 2633 4 – 8
42 – 50
11–17 10–16 0–2
30 March – 3 April 2014 [31] India Today-Cicero 1498 6 – 10
42 – 50
15–21 9–13 0–2
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 5 51 14 10 0

Uttarakhand (5)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 0 5
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 0 5

West Bengal (42)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for West Bengal

  AITC - 30 seats
  Left Front - 8 seats
  INC - 4 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP AITC Left Front Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 3 0 23 16 0
Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 [13] India Today-CVoter 21,792 2 0 23 16 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 2 1 24 14 1
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 1 0 32 9 0
March–April 2014 [47] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1440 4–7 0–1 23–29 7–13 0
1 – 5 April 2014 [48] India Today-Cicero 1706 6–10 0–3 23–27 7–11 0–1
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 4 0 30 8 0

Union Territories

NCT of Delhi (7)

 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Delhi

  BJP - 7 seats
  AAP - 0 seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP AAP
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 3 4 0
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 0 4 3
March 2014 [21] NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 1 2 4
March–April 2014 [49] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 891 0–1 3–4 2–3
28–29 March 2014 [50] India Today- Cicero 1,188 0–2 5–7 1–2
April 2014 [23] NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 0 7 0

Other Union Territories (6)

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
INC BJP AAP Others
Aug–Oct 2013 [12] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 4 0 1
Jan–Feb 2014 [18] Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 3 1 1

Other findings

The eight largest metropolises in India are considered important because they constitute 31 seats, larger than some regions altogether. In the previous election, the INC-led UPA won 24 of these seats, but the UPA is trailing in these areas.[51] A NDTV opinion poll in Uttar Pradesh indicated that the BJP would win its largest share of seats in the region by winning 40 of the 80 seats. BSP would get 15 seats, SP would get 13 seats, INC-RLD will get 12 seats, amongst its losses will Ajit Singh. The poll also asked those in Gujarat if Modi should run from U.P., of which 67% responded negatively, while those in U.P. said by 62% that they would like to see him run from there.[52] A survey of first time voters suggested Modi was the most popular prime ministerial candidate and Mamata Banerjee was the most popular outside the BJP or INC.[53] Latest survey by CNN-IBN-Lokniti predicts the decline (by 5%) in popularity of Narendra Modi as PM candidate.[54]

Exit polls

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Constituencies
polled 		bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |
UPA NDA TF Other
April/May 2014
(post-poll) 		[55] CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 287[56] 92–102
(INC 72–82) 		270–282
(BJP 230–242) 		125–171
April/May 2014
(exit+post-poll) 		[57] India Today – Cicero 543[58] 110–120 261–283 150–162
April/May 2014
(exit+post-poll) 		[57][59] News 24-Today's Chanakya 479[60] 61–79
(INC 48–66) 		326–354
(BJP 277–305) 		122–144
Publish Date Ref Polling Organisation bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color |
NDA UPA Other
12 May 2014 [57] CNN-IBN – CSDS – Lokniti bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |276 97 148
[57][58] India Today – Cicero bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |272 115

156

[57][59] News 24 – Chanakya bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |340 70 133
[57] Times Now – ORG bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |249 148 146
[57][61] ABP News – Nielsen bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |274 97 165
[57] India TV – CVoter bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |289 101 148
14 May 2014 [62][63] NDTV – Hansa Research bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |279 103 161
[64] CNN-IBN – CSDS bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |280 97 148
12 May 2014 [57] Poll of Polls bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color |283 105 149

Controversy

Polling agencies have been criticised by some political parties, intellectuals and political scholars.[why?][65] One of the limitations in making predictions is the modelling the relationship between vote share and the number of seats.[66]

A controversy erupted when a lowly rated news channelNews Express released footage of a sting operation named Operation Prime Minister which alleged that a number of polling agencies were involved in malpractices such as juggling with the statistics and results. The sting was aimed to suggest that Polling agencies are fudging numbers to show Narendra Modi as front-runner in run-up to the polls to influence the undecided voters. The allegation included global research Giants like Ipsos and CVoter, whose contract with the India Today group was suspended briefly. However the promoters of "News Express" channel called "Sai Prasad Group"[67][68][69][69] itself were seriously criticised for a string of money laundering cases pursued by multiple government probing agencies. After series of inquiries and audits; the allegations were found animated and politically motivated as the channel was supported by the ruling political party which was shown trailing badly in these opinion polls. The CVoter Exit Polls were duly carried by India TV and Time Now and all major regional networks of India.[70][71][72][73]

References

  1. ^ "In India’s National Election, Don’t Trust the Polls, Jonah Force Hill, February 24, 2014". TheDiplomat.com. Feb 2014.
  2. ^ "Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls: My Experiences . March 2014.
  3. ^ "What exit polls are really about." May 12, 2014.
  4. ^ "Lok sabha elections 2014: Why exit polls often get it wrong." 13 May, 2014.
  5. ^ "2014 Lok Sabha polls: Big losses to UPA, no gain for NDA, survey finds". Times of India. 17 April 2013. Retrieved 11 June 2013.
  6. ^ "Narendra Modi is NDA's trump card for 2014 Lok Sabha polls, reveals Headlines Today C-Voter survey". Indiatoday.intoday.in. 21 May 2013. Retrieved 31 July 2013.
  7. ^ This Content Has been removed from Internet And was seen AT "http://www.newsbullet.in/india/34-more/42023-upa-set-for-a-crushing-defeatsurvey". The Site which was earlier named as newsbullet.in has been changed to abplive.in with no previous content.
  8. ^ "Lok Sabha polls 2014: Narendra Modi top choice for PM, beats Rahul Gandhi, says survey". Indian Express. 4 July 2013. Retrieved 31 July 2013.
  9. ^ "Poll tracker". CNN-IBN. 26 July 2013. Retrieved 26 July 2013.
  10. ^ "Survey Methodology". Chennai, India: The Hindu. 22 July 2013. Retrieved 25 July 2013.
  11. ^ "2014 Poll survey projects NDA making significant gains". economic times. 29 July 2013. Retrieved 29 July 2013.
  12. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad "Congress 102, BJP 162; UPA 117, NDA 186: C-Voter Poll". Outlook. Archived from the original on 16 October 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2013. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  13. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "NDA may win over 200 seats as Modi's popularity soars further: India Today Mood of the Nation opinion poll : North, News – India Today". India Today. Retrieved 23 January 2013.
  14. ^ a b "ABP News nationwide opinion poll: NDA clear winner with 226, UPA stuck at 101". Abpnews. Retrieved 25 January 2013.
  15. ^ a b c d "Modi-led NDA way ahead than UPA, to win 236 seats in LS polls 2014: ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll". Abp news. 22 February 2014. Archived from the original on 13 April 2014. Retrieved 22 February 2014. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  16. ^ a b "Poll tracker: NDA to get 211–231, UPA distant second with 107–127". IBNLIVE. Retrieved 24 January 2013.
  17. ^ a b "Methodology of Lokniti-IBN Tracker Round II". Lokniti. Retrieved 24 January 2013.
  18. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad "India TV-C Voter projection: Big gains for BJP in UP, Bihar; NDA may be 45 short of magic mark". Indiatv. Retrieved 13 February 2013.
  19. ^ "#WhoWillFormGovt: National Poll Projection – 1". Timesnow. Retrieved 13 February 2013.
  20. ^ "NDA close to halfway mark with 212–232, needs more allies". IBNLive. 7 March 2014. Retrieved 7 March 2014.
  21. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s "The Final Word – India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 March 2014. Retrieved 14 March 2014.
  22. ^ "Modi-powered NDA may get 234–246 seats, UPA 111–123". IBNLive. 4 April 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014.
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s "The Final Word – India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
  24. ^ "The Final Word – India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
  25. ^ The poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. 1 seat was given to others in Telangana. Moreover, BJP and TDP were taken to be a coalition
  26. ^ "Andhra poll tracker: TDP to get 18–20 seats, YSRCP 1–2, Congress 3–4". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  27. ^ The poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
  28. ^ a b "Modi powered BJP breaches southern fortress". India Today. 20 April 2014. Retrieved 20 April 2014.
  29. ^ The poll gave one seat to others.
  30. ^ "Bihar tracker: BJP-LJP to bag 21–29, RJD-Cong-NCP 7–13, JDU 2–5 seats". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  31. ^ a b "Modi wave to take 42–50 seats in UP; 20–24 in Bihar: India Today Group-Cicero poll". India Today. 11 April 2014. Retrieved 13 April 2014.
  32. ^ "Gujarat poll tracker: BJP on a roll, to win 20–26 seats, Congress 0–4". CNN-IBN. 2 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  33. ^ "Karnataka tracker: Congress to win 12–18 seats, BJP 7–13, others 1–4". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  34. ^ 3 seats given to others
  35. ^ "Kerala poll tracker: UDF ahead with 11–17 seats, LDF 4–8". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  36. ^ "MP poll tracker: Landslide for BJP with 24–28 seats, Congress 1–5". CNN-IBN. 2 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  37. ^ With Republican Party of India (Athvale) and Shiv Sena as National Democratic Alliance-NDA
  38. ^ "BJP-Shiv Sena clear winner in Maharashtra: ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll". http://www.abplive.in/. ABP News. 28 March 2014. Retrieved 28 March 2014. {{cite web}}: External link in |website= (help)
  39. ^ "Maharashtra poll tracker: BJP-SS-RPI 24–30 seats, Congress-NCP 16–22". CNN-IBN. 2 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  40. ^ "Odisha tracker: Naveen's BJD to win 10–16 seats, BJP 3–7, Congress 0–4". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  41. ^ "Rajasthan tracker: BJP to win 21–25 seats, Cong routed, may get 0–2". CNN-IBN. 3 April 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014.
  42. ^ "Tamil Nadu tracker: AIADMK 15–21 seats, DMK 10–16, BJP alliance 6–10". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  43. ^ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRHG8UgsVV4. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  44. ^ "India TV C voter projection big gains for BJP".
  45. ^ "ABP News – Nielsen Opinion Poll BJP sweep in UP-SP-BSP hit".
  46. ^ "UP tracker: BJP may win 42–50 seats, SP 11–17, BSP 10–16, Cong-RLD 4–8". CNN-IBN. 3 April 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014.
  47. ^ "West Bengal tracker: TMC 23–29 seats, Left 7–13, Congress 4–7, BJP 0–1". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  48. ^ "Trinamool Congress set to bag up to 27 of 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, says India Today-Cicero poll". India Today. 13 April 2014. Retrieved 14 April 2014.
  49. ^ "Delhi tracker: BJP takes lead, to win 3–4 seats, AAP 2–3, Congress 0–1". CNN-IBN. 3 April 2014. Retrieved 3 April 2014.
  50. ^ "India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll: BJP set to completely rout Congress in Delhi's seven Lok Sabha seats". India Today. 2 April 2014. Retrieved 6 April 2014.
  51. ^ "Why India's Big Cities Are Important For Elections 2014". IndiaSpend. 21 February 2014. Retrieved 25 February 2014.
  52. ^ NDTV Opinion Poll: Uttar Pradesh with Narendra Modi, big dent for Mulayam Singh Yadav – NDTV
  53. ^ "First time voters want Narendra Modi as PM, suggests India Today-CVoter Youth Survey". Indiatoday.intoday.in. 19 September 2013. Retrieved 25 December 2013.
  54. ^ "Modi's popularity dips but NDA still leading: Survey". Times of India. 7 March 2014. Retrieved 7 March 2014.
  55. ^ "Post-poll survey: Modi-led NDA may get 270–282 seats, UPA 92–102". IBNLive. 12 May 2014. Retrieved 12 May 2014.
  56. ^ What exit polls are really about? The Hindu BusinessLine
  57. ^ a b c d e f g h i Lok Sabha Exit Polls India Today
  58. ^ a b India Today Group-Cicero post-poll result: Modi set to be India's next PM India Today
  59. ^ a b Lok Sabha 2014 – Exit Poll Archived 15 May 2014 at the Wayback Machine Today's Chanakya
  60. ^ Methodology – 2014 General Elections, TODAY'S CHANAKYA
  61. ^ ABP NEWS – NIELSEN EXIT POLL 2014 Archived 15 May 2014 at the Wayback Machine ABP News
  62. ^ "Lok Sabha Exit and Post Poll – Methodology". NDTV India. 14 May 2014. Retrieved 15 May 2014.
  63. ^ "Watch NDTV Exit Poll: BJP and Allies Cross Half-Way Mark, Congress in Double Digits". NDTV India. 14 May 2014. Retrieved 15 May 2014.
  64. ^ Post-poll survey: Modi propels BJP-led NDA to power with 274–286 seats, CNN-IBN
  65. ^ Election metrics | Analysing opinion polls, Karthik Shashidhar, Fri, Aug 30 2013, LiveMint
  66. ^ Why India's pollsters can't figure it out, Rukmini Shrinivasan, TNN, Jun 9, 2013
  67. ^ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZxUI8Opx0k. {{cite news}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  68. ^ http://www.samachar.com/Promoter-of-sting-channel-under-govt-probe-for-irregularities-oc0fK7efjba.html. {{cite news}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  69. ^ a b http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/sai-prasad-group-s-activities-under-multi-agency-probe-113012500058_1.html. {{cite news}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  70. ^ http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/Times-Now-CVoter-Opion-Poll. {{cite news}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  71. ^ http://news.oneindia.in/india/lok-sabha-election-2014-c-voter-exit-poll-survey-lse-1446071.html. {{cite news}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  72. ^ http://www.indiatvnews.com/politics/national/india-tv-cvoter-exit-poll-nda-thumping-majority-290-seats-bjp--17527.html. {{cite news}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  73. ^ India Today Group suspends C-Voter poll following sting, FEB 25 2014, LiveMint
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