Potential superpower

The present day governments to be called, or to remain, a potential superpower for the 21st century.

  United States

  China

  European Union

  India

  Russia

Some academics have speculated on nations that are potential superpowers in the 21st century, mentioning several candidates. Whether the People's Republic of China, India or the European Union, will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The most common belief held is that only the United States of America currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower; although it is a matter of debate as to whether it is a hegemon. Another topic of debate regards the status of the Russian Federation as either a superpower or a potential superpower . Brazil, is considered to be a potential great power.

The record of such predictions has not been accurate. For example, in the 1980s some political and economic analysts erroneously predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge GDP, and high economic growth at that time.

European Union

European Union

The European Union has been called an emerging superpower by academics. T.R. Reid, Andrew Reding and Mark Leonard, believe that the power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century. Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy, low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members states' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week). On the other hand Laurent Cohen-Tanugi states that the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits even while most member states of the EU lagged substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gains. Additionally, It is argued by commentators that full political integration is not required for the European Union to wield international influence: that its apparent weaknesses constitute its real strengths (as of its low profile diplomacy and the opsetion of the rule of law) and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of international actor than traditional ones [7]; however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would be equal to that of a politically integrated superpower. (e.g. United States)

Facts in Favour

Culture

Europe has long been a powerful cultural force in the world . Overall the twenty-seven member states also have significant cultural influences on the entire globe, with European fashion, art and food being commonplace in nearly every corner of the planet. Europe has developed cultural power in architecture , cinema , dance , education , literature , music , and theatre . European language are used not only in Europe, but around the world (see Anglophone, Francophone, Hispanophone, and Lusophone). In terms of education, eight of the top fifteen ranks on the PISA were filled by EU member states with all western member states being represented among the top thirty. The culture of the European Union is a series of the overlapping cultures of its member states. Each of the nations that make up the EU have individual cultures, and no unified culture exists for the entire continent. However, the European Union is active in promoting its rich cultural heritage. , at home as well as abroad .

Demographics

The total population of all the member states of the European Union is 497,018,677, with a population growth rate of 0.12%. The EU has a total land area of 4,324,782 sq km, half the size of the US. The climate ranges from cold, subarctic temperatures in the north to dry, hot summers in the south and mild, wet winters in the west. The terrain is flat around the Baltic and Atlantic coasts, but becomes more mountainous in the central and southern areas of the continent.

Economics

The European Union's combined economy is the strongest in the world, giving the EU considerable political power.

The EU currently features the world's largest GDP and consumer market and has considerable control over the global allocation of resources (see List of countries by GDP (nominal) and list of countries by GDP (PPP)), the economies of 27 member states and is generating an estimated nominal GDP of €11.9 trillion in 2008 according to the IMF. It accounts for about 31% of the world's total economic output. The EU has a GDP growth rate of 3% per year. The EU’s total workforce is 222.4 million, which is growing 2.6% each year. The combined member states have an unemployment rate of 6.7% as of march 2008. The unemployment rate (EU25) had already declined in prior years from 8.9% in March 2005 to 8.4% in March 2006. The European Union has an inflation rate of 1.8%. Fifteen member states adopted a single currency, the euro, managed by the European Central Bank. The EU economy consists of a single market and is represented as a unified entity in the WTO. The Euro is one of the strongest currencies in the world, with an exchange rate of 1.5 Euros to one US dollar.

Military

The EU's military capabilities are relatively limited, while "superpowers" traditionally wield considerable power in that sphere. Given planned force expansion, EU members will together field 4 fleet aircraft carriers as well as more than half a dozen smaller escort carriers and numerous surface warships by 2015.. The Euro Corps has deployed units on a variety of peace-keeping missions. European leaders have planned to expand the Euro Corps to include 13 1,500 man battle groups by the end of 2007, with more expansion continued in the future. 22 of the 27 nations of the EU have agreed to supply troops to the new battle groups.

The majority of the EU’s military strength comes from it’s members states, who operate separate militaries and defense budgets. Four of the EU’s 27 members (France, Germany, Italy , the UK) are among the top 10 nations by military expenditure (see List of countries by military expenditure) Total European Union military expenditure is 311, 920, 000, 000 US dollars, second only to the United States.

Politics

Two EU members, France and the United Kingdom, are permanent members of the UN Security Council and have veto power. The EU is composed of many developed countries; by contrast, India and China are politically unified but still lack some economic, political, military, and social development. The European Union contains several current great powers — the United Kingdom, Germany, and France — along with 24 other countries. Also, the EU even seems to have developed a sphere of influence of close geographical nations, which was typical of the United States and Soviet Union in the Cold War. Examples include candidate nations, EFTA members outside of the Union, and former colonies, especially in Africa. The EU plays the role of a normative hegemon [8]. It reverses the traditional balance of power, in the sense that states are not trying to counter-balance it but join it.

Facts Against

Many EU members import oil and gas from Russia.

It is currently argued that the European Union is too politically and culturally fragmented to be considered as a single unit, especially since two of the principal levers of power, foreign policy and defense, are exercised principally by the individual member states. For instance, one member of the EU rejected the Lisbon Treaty, thus endsuring it will not be adopted. . It would have to have been ratified by all 27 member states. Much of the debate seems to stem from the EU being a sui generis entity. The EU has become increasingly reliant on energy from Russia and the Ukraine in recent years, so much that European leaders are beginning to call for diversifying the EU's energy. .

Structure

On December 16, 2004, The World Factbook, a publication of the United States' Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) added an entry for the European Union. According to the CIA, the European Union was added because the EU "continues to accrue more nation-like characteristics for itself". Their reasoning was explained in this small statement in the introduction:

The evolution of the European Union (EU) from a regional economic agreement among six neighboring states in 1951 to today's supranational organization of 27 countries across the European continent stands as an unprecedented phenomenon in the annals of history. Dynastic unions for territorial consolidation were long the norm in Europe... Although the EU is not a federation in the strict sense, it is far more than a free-trade association such as ASEAN, NAFTA, or Mercosur, and it has many of the attributes associated with independent nations: its own flag, anthem, founding date, and currency, as well as an incipient common foreign and security policy in its dealings with other nations. In the future, many of these nation-like characteristics are likely to be expanded. Thus, inclusion of basic intelligence on the EU has been deemed appropriate as a new, separate entity in The World Factbook. However... this description is placed after the regular country entries. — CIA factbook

People's Republic of China

People's Republic of China

The People's Republic of China receives continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status, and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts. Professor Shujie Yao of Nottingham University has said "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue," and that China's GDP will overtake that of Japan by 2017 or 2018, and Germany's by 2008. Professor Yao thinks that "under an optimistic scenario," "China could become a real superpower in 30 years time." Although China's GDP 'shrank' when the World Bank reported in late 2007 that they had overestimated China's economy by about 40%, the finding was based on a PPP estimation of the Chinese GDP, upon which the above estimations do not depend.

Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China may become too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk in China: Fragile Superpower. Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.

Facts in Favour

China's nominal GDP trend from 1952 to 2005.

The UN Security Council as of 2007, showing the five permanent members (including China) who have veto powers and the elected members who do not.

Culture

China has an extensive historical culture and philosophical tradition, having spread its linguistic, cultural, and political influence over many of the nations in East and Southeast Asia over the last several thousand years. More recently, in conjunction with China's opening up to the world and rapid modernization, Chinese cultural influence has once again been on the rise. The enrollment of foreign students in mainland China has tripled to 110,000 from 36,000 over the past decade , and the number of foreign tourists has also increased to 41.8 million in 2004 . The PRC has created 26 Confucius Institutes around the world to teach its language and culture, and while the Voice of America was cutting its Chinese broadcasts to 14 from 19 hours a day, China Radio International was increasing its broadcasts in English to 24 hours a day . Chinese actors such as Michelle Yeoh, Zhang Ziyi, Jet Li, Chow Yun-Fat and Jacky Chan as well as sports figures such as Yao Ming have gained international fame.

The Hall of Supreme Harmony in the Forbidden City, a symbol of Imperial Chinese power and prosperity.

China has a long history spanning many thousands of years and stood as a leading civilization in Asia. Many Asian countries were a part of the century-old Chinese tributary system. China strongly influenced its neighbors in politics, arts, philosophy, religion, and culture until the rise of the Western powers and Imperial Japan. . The PRC government has always put strong emphasis on developing a strong primary educational system. China has over a 90% literacy rate according to 2002 statistics. China's youth (age 15 to 24) literacy rate is 98.9% (99.2% for males and 98.5% for females) in 2000. The PRC has also put science and technology as priorities in its education. Such emphasis may explain the performance of mainland Chinese high school students in the mathematics, physics, chemistry, and biology areas of the International science olympiad.

Another important factor is the strong and economically influential Overseas Chinese around the world, especially in Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, and throughout the United States and the Western world . There are more than 60 million overseas Chinese spread throughout the world. The overseas Chinese have a GDP equivalent to about US$1.1 trillion, or one of the top 10 world economies if combined and are a large economic contributor to China's growing economy. Some of these overseas Chinese (particularly older emmigrants from China) preserve their cultural identity and form communities in the host nations known as "Chinatowns", which help to raise awareness of Chinese culture in those foreign countries. Chinese culture also strongly influences and forms the basis of the regional cultures of East Asia. East Asian countries adopted much of the Chinese essence in philosophy, language, and ancient technology. An example is Confucianism - a philosophical thought originated from China - which holds a great influence on not only the Chinese but also the Japanese, Koreans, Vietnamese, and other East Asians.

Demographics

The People's Republic of China covers a total area of approximately 9.6 millions km² which is the third or fourth largest in the world. China's land possesses vast wealths of valuable natural resources such as coal, oil, and minerals . In view of PRC's extensive river network and mountainous terrain, there is ample potential for the production of hydroelectric power . Most areas of China enjoy a temperate climate and China has one of the world's largest land masses within the temperate zone. According to a report by Jeffrey Sachs, nations in temperate climate zones generally have higher agricultural productivity and face lower rates of infectious diseases than tropical regions (particularly endemic water-borne and parasitic diseases). Moderate advantages in geography can lead to big differences in long-term economic performance through the development of innovation from excess labor productivity. Sachs believes this climate makes most economies in this region high-income, but categorizes China, Russia and much of Eastern Europe as middle-income economies because of their socialist past. "Geography as destiny" and the benefits of a temperate climate toward economic development were first proposed by Adam Smith and recently by David Landes in his The Wealth and Poverty of Nations.

China's population is the world's largest, with about 1.3 billion citizens . With the global human population currently estimated at about 6.5 billion, China is home to approximately 20%. China's controversial One-Child Policy has enabled families to devote more resources to their offspring and has been beneficial in terms of curbing population growth, aiding economic growth, and improving the health and welfare of women and children. The adult (ages 15+) literacy rate in China in 2005 was at 90.9% with near gender parity. However, some believe population control may eventually have a detrimental effect on mainland China's aging demographics (see factors against section). China has many cities with large populations; 170 cities have a population of over one million people. Most of them are encircled with expressways (for example, the Ring Roads of Beijing). These metropolises are national or regional centers of industrial, financial, and cultural activities. Shanghai, China's largest city, is an important financial center in Asia and has the world's busiest port.

China's international trade grew at an annual average rate of 29.5% in the last four years . China’s export share is 7.3% and import share is 6.3% in world trade in 2005 . China is currently the world's third largest trading power (after the United States and Germany) . The PRC government also put great efforts to push for exporting medical supplies and software. China's foreign exchange reserves reached $1 trillion (October 2006), becoming the largest in the world . China's infrastructure has radically improved in last two decades. The total expressway length was about 41,000 kilometers at the end of 2005, the world's second longest only after the United States. Several thousands of kilometers of new expressways are added to form the nationwide expressway network every year . China has the world's first commercially operational maglev train and also has plans to build several other high speed train railways, including the 1300-kilometer Beijing-Shanghai Express Railway and the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev Train. China is home of many of the world's busiest ports.

Communication infrastructure in China has also rapidly risen in the last decade, and today China has more main telephone lines and mobile cellular telephones than any other economy . As of 2005, there are more than 459 million cellphone subscribers in China and China is currently second only to the United States in number of internet users. Currently, China's infrastructure leads significantly when compared to that of India, which is also considered as a potential superpower. .

China is the world's second biggest spender on research and development, and is expected to invest over $136 billion in 2006 after growing more than 20% in 2005. China currently has an estimated 926,000 researchers, second in number only to the 1.3 million in the United States. R&D spending by the PRC government has more than tripled since 1998. Moreover, the numbers of the scientific research paper doubled in the same period. According to experts, China might produce more engineering doctorates than the U.S. in 2010. Many foreign companies are setting up R&D centres in China due to official government support and to tap lower-cost Chinese talents. .

Economics

Mainland China is Japan's, South Korea's and Taiwan's largest trading partner. Growing trade and investment have given the PRC a greater politico-economic leverage over Mongolia. The PRC also has a considerable influence in the military, economy, and politics of North Korea. As the Chinese economy grows, a major priority is securing natural resources to keep pace with demand. China has made energy trading deals with Central Asian nations. In addition to trade ties, the PRC has contributed aid and funding to the region's countries.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which the PRC is a founding member, is also becoming increasingly important in Central Asian security and politics. Some observers believe the PRC is primarily concerned with securing its borders as it emerges as a world power. The Middle East is a strategically important region as it not only possesses vast oil reserves, but large portions of its population are opposed to the United States, the world's only superpower. China has sought out these oil reserves and has also provided security deals to Middle Eastern nations in the face of global condemnation of Middle Eastern terrorism. China's fast economic growth also means that China is consuming more energy. China is now the second largest consumer of petroleum products in the world after the United States. The PRC has recently been trying to secure and diversify sources of its energy (oil and gas) supplies from around the world. The Middle Eastern region, which contains the world's largest proven oil reserve, has been the focus of that policy. Roughly half of China's imported oil comes from the Middle East. At the same time, these energy-producing Middle Eastern nations are keen to diversify their customer base away from overdependence on the Western market (Europe and North America) as a demand source and so they have begun to look at other rapidly growing markets such as China.

In addition to the deepening bilateral relationship in the trade and energy sectors, the PRC has an expanding body of other strategic interests in the greater Middle East region. This is manifested in its security relationships with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iran, which entail WMD and ballistic missile cooperation. These include contentious arms deals which included providing Saudi Arabia and Iran with weapons which could not only harass oil tankers and American aircraft carriers, but also carry nuclear warheads. There are concerns that nothing is being done to stop these arms from falling into terrorist hands. In fact, some of the weapons being used in Iraq by the growing insurgency there are based on Chinese designs..As one of the only sources of such technology to the region, China has placed itself in a strong position to further exert influence on Middle Eastern nations. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan are pivotal states in the region. They are somewhat likely to view the PRC in coming years as an alternate source of security and as a counterbalance to American power .

While China runs a trade deficit with India, it has trade surpluses with other South Asian economies (including Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Pakistan). It has conducted large arms deals with Pakistan. After the United States's nuclear deal with India, the PRC controversially offered Pakistan and Bangladesh nuclear power plants. To maintain relations with India, the PRC has decided to lay down its claims to the Indian state of Sikkim, although this political stance of appeasement is detrimental to China's power. The PRC has also contributed to the improvement of the development sector of all South Asian economies apart from India . China's investment in the said economies has gained a strategic foothold and build a" diplomatic profile in the region, having transformed the region from India's purported "near abroad" into China's own backyard ^{[broken footnote]}. Some of the PRC's geopolitical ambitions focus on Southeast Asia, where the PRC is intent upon establishing a preeminent sphere of influence. The PRC has pursued this ambition with a diplomatic campaign designed to increase its influence politically and economically. In November 2006, the PRC conducted several agreements with Southeast Asian countries to increase free trade, cultural ties, military and security cooperations, and solutions to settle the disputes regarding the ownership of the Spratley Isles. The talks also discussed a possibility to form a political, economic, and security bloc between the PRC and the ASEAN in the near future.

Since the 1960s and 70s the PRC has set out to improve relations with Africa. The PRC's interest centered on building ideological sol­idarity with other underdeveloped nations to advance communism and on repelling so called, Western "imperialism". Following the Cold War, the PRC's interests evolved into more pragmatic pursuits such as trade, investment, and energy . In November 2006, China hosted the heads of states of 48 African countries in Beijing's Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit to strengthen its economic and political influence in the continent. African leaders now regularly cite China as the ideal development model for their countries. Recent years have seen the PRC's growing economic and political influence in South America and the Caribbean. During a visit to Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Cuba in November 2004, PRC President Hu Jintao announced US$100 billion worth of investment over the next decade . For instance, Cuba is turning to Chinese companies rather than Western ones to modernize its crippled transportation system at a cost of more than US$1 billion, continuing a trend of favoring the fellow communist country that has made China Cuba's second-largest trading partner after Venezuela in 2005 . In addition, The PRC is expanding its military-to-military contacts in the region. The PRC is training increasing numbers of Latin American military personnel, taking advantage of a three-year old U.S. law that has led to a sharp decline in U.S.-run training programs for the region .

China's GDP has grown at a rate of at least 10% per year for more than 25 years (although recently the government has sought to slow this growth to curtail overheating and waste), one of the fastest growth rates for a major economy in recorded history . In 2005, China became the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of market exchange value and the second largest when measured by purchasing power parity, with a GDP (PPP) of US$8.8 trillion in 2006. In the same period of time, it has moved 300 million people out of poverty and raised the average Chinese person's income by a factor of 8. . China’s population is so large and its economy growing so quickly that the Chinese are set to take over second place in the league table of the world’s wealthy people in the next decade, second only to the United States.

G025 (Jingshen Expressway). China has the world's second longest length of expressways, after the United States.

The Chunxi Road in Chengdu

In the area of space technology, The PRC launched its first satellite Dong Fang Hong I to Earth orbit on its own Long March rocket in 1970, becoming the fifth nation to achieve independent launch capability. The PRC also became the third country (after the former Soviet Union and the USA) to send humans into space on its own in 2003. The PRC has said that it plans to launch its own space station and to send a manned mission to the moon by 2020. . The PRC is also working on its own GPS system, the Beidou II satellite navigation system.

Military

The 2.25-million-strong People's Liberation Army makes it the largest military in the world, in terms of sheer number of troops (13.25 million if the People's Armed Police and the Militia are included ). However, the PLA is behind advanced Western militaries in many areas, especially naval and air power. Recognizing this fact, the PRC is undergoing a massive effort to improve and modernize its military technology, equipment, and power projection capabilities. As part of its overall program of naval modernization, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy has a long-term plan of developing a blue water navy. - all fueled by a rapidly growing defense budget.

File:PRCFounding.jpg

Mao Zedong proclaiming the establishment of the People's Republic in 1949.

Politics

As one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council with veto power, the PRC possesses influence in world politics. The PRC is gradually increasing its influence in areas which are traditionally dominated by the influence of Western countries. This is in part due to the PRC's non-ideological approach to foreign affairs and offer of no-strings-attached assistance, which thus presents an alternative for seeking foreign aid and potential allies. Its ties with these countries have become closer driven by strengthening economic bond through trade and strategic investment, and to a much lesser extent, military cooperation .

Flag of the People's Republic before a modernizing Shanghai.

Facts Against

20 of the world's 30 most polluted cities lie in China. Shown here is the capital Beijing

Demographics

A side effect of the One-child policy is mainland China's rapidly aging population. It is predicted that by 2020, 25% of mainland China's population will be considered retirees, so they cannot contribute to the work force. It is expected that by the 2040s, 430 million Chinese will be above the age of sixty.

This could disadvantage its economy, but on the other hand many feel uncontrolled population growth is not a feasible option either. Although officially banned by the central government, local authorities - under the pressure of job promotion - sometimes committed forced abortions in order to enforce the One-child policy. Cultural preference over sons has also encouraged gender-based abortion including female infanticide, despite it being illegal in mainland China. If trends continue, there will be 30-40 million more men of marriageable age in 2020 than there are women. The total population of China is set to reach 1.5 billion in 2033. By this point, it is expected that the Chinese people will be strained for water and food resources. The continued overpopulation also means there will be increased demand for jobs, leading to rampant unemployment damaging the economy..

Economics

Skyline of Urumqi, Xinjiang in western China, part of the China Western Development strategy to bridge the growing economic gap between coastal and inner provinces.

Mainland China still faces great difficulty in solving the mass unemployment problem in urban and rural areas . Furthermore, although the eastern seaboard areas of mainland China have experienced a tremendous (often double-digit) economic growth rate and are major recipients of FDI into the country, similar breakneck growth rate has been lacking in the relatively underdeveloped western areas. To close the gap and to catch up with mainland China's wealthier eastern provinces, the government has initiated the China Western Development strategy , the Revitalize Northeast China initiative , and the Rise of Central China policy .

Many parts of rural China, particularly in the west, still depend on small plot manual farming.

On a more micro-scale, there is also a widening gap between urban and rural wealth distributions . On average, urban residents earned three times more income than their rural counterparts . 42 million mainland Chinese lived below the official poverty line in 1998 and 100 million lived on less than US$1 per day (classified by the World Bank as extreme poverty) . Notably, however, the number of people living under the poverty line in the country dropped from 250 million in 1978 to 29 million by the end of 2003 . In response to the widening income gap between rural and urban Chinese, the government has taken steps such as abolishing the 2,000-year-old agricultural tax , exempting personal income tax for those receiving monthly income below 1,600 yuan , and increasing investments in rural infrastructure, education, and health services to boost consumption and development in rural areas .

The mainland Chinese economy has a great dependence on foreign trade and investments. Investment and export sectors collectively account for about 80% of mainland Chinese GDP and are still growing at close to a 30% annual rate. This is an unsustainable outcome for China (and the US on the consumption side of the global economy). Further sharp increases in investment are a recipe for capacity overhangs and deflation, which could cause an abundance of goods to sell with no countries to sell them to. A scenario such as this is very similar to what caused worldwide recession in the 1930s. Continued sharp gains in exports are a recipe for trade frictions and possibly protectionism in other countries. China is now proposing to tackle its excess saving and subpar consumption story with the same fervor evident when it went after other aspects of its growth and reform story during the past 28 years. Pilot projects already have been established in setting up a safety net, especially in the social security area; moreover, under the terms of China’s WTO accession, the opening of domestic services is likely to accelerate over the next 3-5 years, thereby relieving some of China's external dependency. . In 2005, the share of domestic consumption in mainland China's overall GDP had fallen to slightly less than 50%, significantly below the U.S. share of 71% (most other industrialized nations such as the U.K., Japan, and Australia have shares of around 60-70%) .

As a result of previous and current growth-at-all-costs strategy, mainland China's environment is in a state of serious degradation. Soil erosion, desertification, air pollution, loss of arable lands, and steady falling of water table especially in the north are serious problems and are estimated to cost the mainland Chinese economy billions of dollars per year. Water is already a scarce commodity in mainland China (especially in northern arid regions) where per capita water supplies are less than a quarter of the world's average. Pollution from coal causes over 250,000 deaths annually. By 2020, it is predicted that mainland China will account for up to 19 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. In response to these problems, the PRC government has embarked upon a number of projects such as Great Green Wall project (planting billions of trees to hold back desertification) and building canals to divert water from water-abundant southern regions to arid northern regions.

Economic crimes such as corruption and collusion have become rampant among party and government officials, and this may hinder mainland China's economic growth and hurt the confidence of investors. Combined with worsening social problems in mainland China (due to wide urban-rural income gap), there has been growing social discontent and about 87,000 large and small-scale demonstrations occurred throughout mainland China in 2005. Most of these demonstrations are not political in nature, being due for the most part to economic reasons. Peasants for example, are often forced to leave their land and are compensated poorly. Their confiscated lands are then sold at a much higher price with the local officials keeping much of the profits.

Piracy in mainland China is widespread. In 2003, U.S., European and Japanese companies reported combined losses to mainland Chinese piracy of at least US$60 billion . Piracy in mainland China negatively affects everything from computer software and pharmaceuticals to clothing, auto parts and chewing gum. It affects both mainland Chinese and foreign IPR holders, and is a growing concern for major trading partners such as the United States and the European Union. Such IPR violations may reduce mainland China's creative power potential and hold back mainland China's own innovators and entrepreneurs .

In some technology fields, mainland China is still behind its counterparts such as the United States, Russia and the European Union, and lacks in the number of leading world-class research scientists. Furthermore, despite the large number of university graduates produced in mainland China every year, only a relatively small fraction has sufficient quality or professional experience to work in multinational companies (MNCs). The Chinese government is trying to address the problem by giving massive injections of governmental funding into mainland Chinese universities and hopes to transform them into world-class institutions. These funds are intended for attracting top foreign-educated and overseas-born Chinese, building cutting-edge research centers, partnering with the world's best educational institutions, and developing new programs taught in English.

In response to mainland China's ballooning trade surplus with the West, Western governments assert that its currency (see Renminbi) is currently greatly undervalued .

Military

PRC's military capabilities (technology and power projection) are still relatively small compared to that of the United States. Though rapidly increasing in both the size and complexity of technologically modern military assets, the PRC currently has only a modest force projection capability and has deficiencies in several vital components of a blue water navy (notably ASW and sea-based airpower), as well as a long-range strategic air force. In terms of operational ICBM and SLBM systems, the PRC currently possesses only a “minimal deterrent” vis-à-vis the United States and Russia in the form of several dozen DF-5A, JL-1, JL-2, DF-31, and DF-31A missiles. In space technology, the PRC is currently lagging behind the level of the United States and Russia, though that in part can be attributed to a late start. Two major factors have been cited as major contributors to the PRC's relatively late military modernization. PRC's previous long-term dependence on Soviet-era military technology had produced a significant lack of indigenously produced hardware, and it was not up until the 1960s Sino-Soviet split that the PRC was forced to rely on their own scientists rather than Soviet engineers to help modernize PRC's military technology. Furthermore, the surge of violence and bloodshed against intellectuals during the Cultural Revolution during this time period, resulted in a shortage of trained and skilled engineers and military leaders to tackle the task of rebuilding PRC's military.

Politics

The Taiwan Strait has been the theatre for several military confrontations between the PRC and the Republic of China since the last days of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 when the Kuomintang forces led by Chiang Kai-shek retreated across the Strait and relocated its government on Taiwan.

The PRC has historically had strained relationships with several other neighboring countries. A major ongoing dispute is the issue of Taiwan. The PRC has threatened to use force to impose reunification with the Republic of China (ROC) and to thwart any declaration of Taiwanese independence. Most countries in the world (including the United States) maintain diplomatic relations with the PRC and follow its One China policy, although the US is obliged by the Taiwan Relations Act to help provide for the defense of Taiwan should there be any invasion from the mainland. Therefore, a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could lead to a confrontation between the People’s Republic and the United States, which could be devastating to both sides. The PRC's relations with India, its large southern neighbour sharing a long and contentious border, though improved in recent years, have historically been far from friendly. Apart from border disputes, the Dalai Lama, erstwhile religious and political ruler of Tibet, was granted asylum in India in 1959, increasing tensions between these nations, eventually leading to the Sino-Indian War in 1962. The PRC currently also has border disputes with Vietnam over the Paracel Islands, Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands, and with several Southeast Asian nations over the Spratly islands. The visits to the Yasukuni Shrine by former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, where 14 convicted Class A war criminals are enshrined and deified, were until recently a continuous source of friction between China and Japan. Though the new Japanese Prime Minister has not publically stated whether he intends to visit the Shrine, both countries have made a concerted effort to restore relations to a more friendly level in the aftermath of Koizumi’s leaving office.

Some of PRC's allies, particularly African and Latin American nations, are politically and/or economically unstable, which could lead to unexpected twists in foreign relations. While the PRC's strictly neutral foreign policy acknowledges the right of every state to its own political system, with economic investment being beneficial to any foreign state regardless of internal affairs, other countries have asserted the need for certain universal values and ideals, such as democracy and human rights. PRC's disregard for these considerations has led to criticism that its actions have the effect of sheltering repressive states such as Zimbabwe and blocking effective action on genocide in Sudan..This has contributed to a growing backlash and simmering grassroots resentment against China in African countries.

There has been a national debate about judicial independence in mainland China's closed political system. In mainland China, the government, not a court, is the final arbiter of law. Mainland China's court system is far from an independent entity that can curb government power. Instead, the courts often remain a pliable tool to reinforce that power (for instance, court rulings that favor state interests). Many judges are poorly educated in the law and are corrupt. Judges often must answer to government officials as much as to the law. Political pressure is common, and private trial committees often dictate rulings. Although there are signs of change, such as the emerging civic belief that ordinary people have "legal rights", such changes continue to meet enormous resistance within the system .

The Unknown Rebel - This famous photo, taken on 5 June 1989 by photographer Jeff Widener, depicts a lone protester whose actions halted a column of advancing tanks until he was pulled into the crowd. Both intellectuals and labour activists have had a turbulent history of protests, sometimes violent, in the PRC.

Western governments, human rights organizations, and groups within China have often criticized the PRC on its human rights record in mainland China and often use this issue to shape policies towards the PRC. For example, the US (nominally) justifies continued resistance to lift its arms embargo against China, as well as that of the EU, based upon the issue of human rights. One prominent case of accusations of human rights violations comes from the Falun Gong movement, which claims that the PRC government persecutes its members in mainland China and campaigns outside of mainland China for an end to this. . There has also been unrest in the Tibetan Plateau in the past, with calls for Tibetan independence still a controversial issue.

India

Republic of India

Companies such as Infosys have brought on India's IT revolution

Newsweek and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower. With 9.4% GDP growth in 2007, Goldman Sachs predicts that as 700 million Indians are expected to move to cities by 2050, the Indian economy may surpass the United States's (in US$) by 2043.

"India has moved onto a much faster growth trajectory than the bank had previously expected, fueled by strong and steady productivity gains in its legions of new factories, which are producing everything from brassieres to cars."

India's strength lies in its demographics; More than 50% of India's population is under 25. Dr Narendra Jadhav, a principal advisor to the RBI and a former advisor to the executive director at the IMF, says "India has a great potential to become an economic super power because of its growing young population." A young population coupled with the second largest English-speaking population in the world could give India an advantage over China.

Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. has embraced the notion being put forth that

"It is going to be India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century".

China and India rising to superpower status is not inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.

Facts in favour

Geography

The Himalayas in the north and north-east protect the subcontinent from bitter continental cold, save the monsoon winds from escaping, and replenish the river watersheds and flat arable lands that have spawned the Indian civilization.

India, the 7th largest nation by area, lies at the north-central region of Indian Ocean - a zone with unprecedented potential for growth in the scale of transoceanic commerce, with many Eurasian and increasingly Afro-Asian sea-trade routes passing through or close to Indian territorial waters. The subcontinent's land and water resources, though strained, is yet sustaining its massive population.

Demographics

The increased Indian population has prompted the creation of high rise apartment blocks in numerous cities, including relatively minor cities like Gurgaon, where this apartment block was built.

India has the world's second largest population. The government has attempted to control the population so as to avoid overpopulation. Some South Indian states have slowed down their population growth to below 1%. The PGR for the country is 1.38. Due to its high birth rate India has a young population compared to most aging nations. It has approximately 60% of its population below the age of 30. In addition, declining fertility is beginning to reduce the youth dependency rate which may produce a demographic dividend. In the coming decades, while some of the powerful nations witness a decrease in workforce, India is expected to have an increase. For example while Europe is well past its demographic window, the U.S. entered its in 1970 (lasting until 2015), China entered its in 1990 (will last until 2025), India won't enter its window until 2010 (lasting until 2050). Regionally South Asia is supposed to maintain the youngest demographic profile after Africa and Middle East, with the window extending up to 2070s. More than 35 million Indians live across the globe. Under fair opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful.

The importance of English in the 21st century is a topic of debate, nonetheless the growing pool of non-native English speakers makes it the best contender for "Global language" status. Incidentally, India has the world's largest English speaking/understanding population. It claims one of the largest workforce of engineers, doctors and other key professionals, all comfortable with English. It has the 2nd largest population of "fluent English" speakers, second only to the U.S., with estimates ranging from 150 to 250 million, and is expected to have the largest in coming decades.

Politics

The machinery of the world's largest democracy: Sansad Bhavan, or the Parliament of India.

India is the world's largest democratic republic, more than three times bigger than the next largest (U.S.). It has so far been successful, at least politically, especially considering its functionality in difficult ethnic composition. The fact that India is a democracy has improved its relations with other democratic nations and significantly improved its ties with the majority of the nations in the developed world. India has been pressing for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (as part of the G4 nations) but without veto ability. It has received backing from the UK, France and Russia. However, China and the U.S have not been supportive of the bid. With improved Indo-US relations, the US is expected by some to reconsider its stand.

Mexican president Vicente Fox and Manmohan Singh. India is extremely keen on improving its ties with other developing countries.

Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, the leader of the world's largest republican democracy, with US President, George W.Bush, leader of the world's most powerful democracy. Indo-US Relations have improved recently due to a civilian nuclear deal.

India has developed relationships with the world powers like the EU, the U.S., Japan and Russia. It also developed relationships with the African Union (esp. South Africa), the Arab World, Southeast Asia, Israel and South American nations (esp. Brazil). In order to make the environment propitious for economic growth, India is investing on its relations with China. It has significantly boosted its image among western nations and signed a civilian nuclear deal with the United States in March 2006. It is also working for better relationships with Pakistan and Iran. Historically, India was one of the founding members of Non-Aligned Movement, and had good relationships with Soviet Union and other parts of western world. It played regional roles in South Asian affairs, e.g. its use of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in the Bangladesh Liberation War and in Sri Lanka. It took a leading initiative to improve relations between African and Asian countries. India is an active member of the Commonwealth and the WTO. The evolving economic integration politics in the West and in Asia is influencing the Indian mood to slowly swing in favour of integration with global economy. Currently, India's political moves are being influenced by economic imperatives. New Delhi is also being observed to slowly, cautiously, and often hesitantly, step into the unchartered role of becoming one of the two major seats of political power in Asia, the other being at Beijing. Some enlightened thinkers from the subcontinent have also envisioned, over the long run, of a South Asian version of free trade zone and even a Union, where the South Asian nations relinquish all past animosities and move to make economic growth a pan subcontinental phenomenon.

A new and highly controversial geopolitical strategy, being debated in the West, is whether India should be trusted/helped to become an economically strong democratic citizen of the world and be used to balance the powerful but non-democratic forces, to insure a more stable world. Generally speaking it is discussed in the context of adopting a policy of offshore balancing on the part of the United States. A new American strategy towards India has been indicated in George W. Bush's recent visit to the subcontinent. India's current economic growth (as the world's second-fastest growing major economy) has improved its standing on the world's political stage, even though it is still a developing country, but one that is showing strong development. Many nations are moving to forge better relationships with India.

Economy

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The Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle in Sriharikota.India is one of the few countries in the world that has the capability of launching satellites into Geo Transfer Orbits.

The metropolis of Mumbai is one of the top 10 centers of global commerce in terms of financial flow.

The economy of India is currently the world's fourth largest in terms of real GDP (PPP) after the USA, the People's Republic of China and Japan, and the second fastest growing major economy in the world, averaging at an annual growth rate of above 8%. . Its record growth was in the third quarter of 2003, when it grew higher than any other emerging economy at 10.4% . Interestingly, estimates by the IMF shows that by 2007 (see List of countries by future GDP estimates (PPP)), India will be the third largest economy in the world, overtaking the Japanese economy. The current growth rate is at 9.2%. India, growing at 8% per year, is the world's second largest producer of food next to China. Food processing accounts for USD 69.4 billion as gross income. India is still relatively a small player in manufacturing when compared to many world leaders. Some new trends suggest an improvement in future, since the manufacturing sector is growing at 11-12%. India currently has an expanding IT industry which is considered one of the best in the world. Some have begun to describe India as a technology superpower. It is considered the World's Office and is leading in the Services Industry. This is mainly due to the availability of a large pool of highly skilled, low cost, English speaking workforce.

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IT Capital-Bangalore Downtown

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Modern office complexes in Gurgaon- one of India's IT Capitals. Other IT cities are Hyderabad, Chennai, Bangalore, Mumbai tec

India is trying to develop more high skilled, English speaking people to fit in the future knowledge economy. India is becoming one of the world's leading producers of computer software and with mushrooming R&D centres it is experiencing a steady revolution in science and technology. A typical example of India's rising scientific endeavours is that it was the 3rd nation to found a National Space Agency called ISRO, after the USSR and the U.S. It was the third Asian nation to send satellites into space after China and Japan in 1970, starting with Aryabhata in 1975. In January 2007, India became the fourth nation to complete atmospheric reentry By 2008 it plans to send an unmanned mission to the Moon. . India and the United States have increased mutual cooperation in space-travel related technologies, such as increasing the interoperability between Indian and US systems, and prospects for a commercial space launch agreement with India that would allow US satellites to be launched on Indian vehicles.India is among the world leaders in remote sensing, a technology coming to great use, among others, to Indian fishermen & farmers. India is also trying to join international R&D projects - e.g. it has recently joined the European Galileo GPS Project and the ITER for fusion energy club. Some Indian educational and research institutions like IIT, NIT, IIM, IISc, TIFR and AIIMS are among the world's best.

Delhi Metro, operational since 2002, is seen as a model for other metros. With growth in economy and technology, India is welcoming modernization.

To reduce the energy crisis, India is presently constructing ~ 9 civilian nuclear power reactors and several hydro-power stations. Recently on 25/01/2007, Russian president, Vladimir Putin on a visit to India offered to build 4 more reactors and India is expected to clinch this deal of strategical importance. Recently it also made a civilian nuclear energy deal with the US and EU. In recent years, India joined China to launch a vigorous campaign to acquire oil fields around the world and now has stake in several oil fields (in the Middle East and Russia).

Skyscrapers, modern office complexes and good infrastructure is helping India grow at a great level but the incompitent government system still needs a much needed reform

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India is investing heavily in multi-billion dollar infrastructure projects like the Golden Quadrilateral Shown here is the NH 8.

India is in the process of developing modern mass rapid transit systems to replace its existing system which is seen as inadequate to cater to present and future urban requirements. A modern metro rail system is already in place in the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. Work is in progress or would be commencing shortly for developing similar mass transit system in cities of NOIDA, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Indore, Ahmedabad and Kochi. Indore is leading the track by implementing world class GPS enabled, low floor buses in a Rapid Transport System. With growth in economy and technology, India is welcoming modernisation. The Indian rail network traverses the length and breadth of the country, covering a total length of 63,140 km (39,200 miles). It is one of the largest and busiest rail networks in the world, transporting over 5 billion passengers and over 350 million tonnes of freight annually. Its operations covers twenty-seven states and three Union territories and also links the neighbouring countries of Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, other public transport systems, such as buses are often not up to the standards followed in developed countries. In the future, the world is expected to enter from the "fossil fuel age", and perhaps "nuclear energy age", into the "renewable-energy age" or even further into the "fusion power age", if and whenever these technologies become economically sustainable. Being a region in the sunny tropicalbelt, the Indian Subcontinent could greatly benefit from a renewable energy trend, as it has the ideal combination of both - high solar insolation and a big consumer base density. For example, considering the costs of energy consumed for temperature control (a major factor influencing a regions energy intensity) and the fact that - cooling load requirements, unlike heating, are roughly in phase with the sun's intensity, cooling from the excessive solar radiation could make great energetic (and hence economic) sense in the subcontinent, whenever the required technology becomes competitively cheaper. India also has 25% of the world's thorium resources.

The Taj Mahal, representing Mughal influence on India's cultural mosaic.

Culture

India has a booming tourism industry. About 3.9 million tourists travelled to India in 2005, each spending approximately $1,470 per person, higher than that of France (the leading tourist destination in the world). Foreign visitors in 2005 spent more than US $15.4 billion annually in India . Many travellers find the cultural diversity an enriching experience, despite the hassles inefficiency, pollution and overcrowding. Monuments like the Taj Mahal are among the many attractions of this land. As of 2006, Conde Nast Traveller ranked India the 4th most preferred travel destination. The Planning Commission expects 5.8 million tourists travelling to India by 2010. The World Travel and Tourism Council believes India's tourism industry will grow at 10% per annum in the next decade, making it lead the world in terms of growth. Tourism contributes 6% of India's GDP and employed 40 million people, making it an important factor in India's economic growth.

Four major world religions, Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism and Jainism originated in India.

Alongside traditional tourism, Indian Metros have emerged as the leading destination of medical tourism. Last year, an estimated 150,000 foreigners visited India for medical procedures, and the number is increasing at the rate of about 15 percent a year.

Bollywood is one of the largest film producers in the world with a growing international audience depicting India's soft power.

The Maurya, Gupta, Mughal, Vijayanagara and Chola empires provide the necessary confidence that a powerful state can be established despite having diversity. India's film industry produces more feature films than any other. In a year, it sold 3.6 billion tickets, more than any other film industry in the world (In comparison, Hollywood sold 2.6 billion tickets) . The cinemas play a major role in spreading Indian culture worldwide. Indian cinema transcended its boundaries from the days of film Awara, a great hit in Russia. Bollywood films are seen in central and west Asia. Indian films have also found audience in eastern societies. India's film industry is now becoming increasingly popular in Western society, with Bollywood festivals occurring numerous cities and Bollywood dance groups performing in New Years Eve celebrations, treatment which other non-English film industries generally do not receive.

Military

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India maintains the third largest active troops in the world. Shown here is Indian Army's HAL Dhruv.

The Indian Armed Forces, India's main defence organisation, consists of two main branches: the core Military of India and the Indian Paramilitary Forces. The Military of India maintains the third largest active duty force in the world after the People's Republic of China and the United States, while the Indian Paramilitary Forces, over a million strong, is the second largest paramilitary force in the world. Combined, the total armed forces of India are 2,414,700 strong, the world's third largest defence force. The Army of India, as the Indian army was called under British rule before 1947, played a crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia during World War II. It also played a leading role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Today, the Indian Army is the world's second largest army after China's People's Liberation Army. The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest air force in the world . India recently flew its first indigenously manufactured combat aircraft.

The Sukhoi Su-30 MKI is the prime air superiority aircraft of the Indian Air Force.

The Indian Navy is the world's fifth largest navy . It is considered to have blue-water capabilities with sophisticated missile-capable warships, aircraft carrier, minesweepers, advanced submarines and the latest aircraft in its inventory, along with a significant use of state of the art technology that is indigenously manufactured. It operates one of only two Asian aircraft carriers. It also plans to induct the INS Vikramaditya by 2008. The first successful use of missiles in history against a modern army, was by Indians against the British Army in the Mysore wars. India started the IGMDP to be a self reliant nation in missile development. The IGMDP program includes five missiles - the ballistic missiles like the Prithvi and Agni, surface to air missiles Trishul and Akash and also the anti tank Nag missile. Prithvi and Agni missiles are inducted into the armed forces and form the basis of Indian nuclear second strike capability. Trishul missile is declared a technology demonstrator. The Akash and Nag missiles are undergoing user trials. Recently, a new weapons system, the air-to-air Astra missile was added into the project. Astra is a BVR capable missile. The expertise in developing these missiles has helped Indian scientists to contribute to joint weapon development programs like the Brahmos and Barak-II. There are reports of India developing an Intercontinental ballistic missile named Surya (Sun). This missile is said to have a range of twelve thousand kilometers. India possesses nuclear weapons since 1974, when it did the Pokharan I nuclear tests, and the means to deliver them over long distances. However, India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (on grounds of security concerns and that India condemns the NPT as discriminatory).

The 3,500 km nuclear capable Agni-III ballistic missile.

India is currently one of the world's largest arms importers, spending an estimated US$16.97 billion in 2004. India has made military technology deals with the Russian Federation, the U.S., Israel and the EU. The Indian Armed Forces plays a crucial role in anti-terrorist activities and maintaining law and order in the disputed Kashmir region. India has also participated in several United Nations peace-keeping missions, currently being the largest contributor to UN peace keeping force and is the largest contributor to the United Nations Democratic Fund, to which the USA, the world's only current superpower, contributes nothing.

Facts against

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Though poverty has declined drastically in India over the past few decades, still 26% of India's populace lives below poverty line.

Politics

Democratic republicanism has its value, more so in a multi-ethnic country like India . However, the applicability of the "theoretical" virtues of republicanism on a country like India is sometimes questioned. Some thinkers consider India's diverse democracy to levy a huge tax on its economy. The Indian government has to consider many interest groups before decision making. However, it should be noted that India is relatively a much younger republic when compared to other major democracies. Moreover, it is predicted that in the long run, India being a democracy will provide it an edge over non-democratic competitors like China. India has had significant successes with quelling many insurgencies, most prominently the Sikh militancy(Khalistan movement) and the surrender of large sections of insurgent outfits like the United Liberation Front of Asom in 1992 and National Liberation Front of Tripura in 2000-2001. However the Indian government has acknowledged that there has been a dramatic increase in support for the Maoists (Naxalite) insurgency in the last decade. Maoist rebels have increased their influence over the last 10 years, especially in regions near Nepal, particularly by targeting and gaining support from poor villages in India. The boom in support appears to have been also boosted by the successes of the nearly 10-year-old Maoist rebellion in Nepal. India's government has recently taken a new stance on the Maoist insurgency, pulling the affected states together to coordinate their response. It says it will combine improved policing with socio-economic measures to defuse grievances that fuel the Maoist cause.

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Kashmir is disputed between India, China and Pakistan and is the most highly militarized region in the world.

India's growth is impeded by disputes with its neighboring People's Republic of China and Pakistan (over historical border and ideological issues) and disputes with Bangladesh (over water availability and the Farakka Dam). Hence, India's neighbors such as China and Pakistan remain distrustful towards India. It is also occasionally burdened with instability issues within some localised-regions of the subcontinent. In an effort to reduce political tension and increase economic cooperation, in recent years, India has improved its relations with its neighbors . India is not a member of the UNSC, although currently it is one of the four-nations group actively seeking a permanent seat in the council. Thus India lacks the ability to extend its influence or ideas on international events in the way superpowers do.

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Smog fills the skies of Delhi, India. Rapid industrialization has caused environmental problems in India.

Economics

Despite India's growth spurt of 8% p.a. in recent years, its sustainable pace is still much lower than China's, which puts its economy more at risk of overheating and rising inflation. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has acknowledged the risk of overheating and has been tightening monetary policy steadily. It is debatable whether this alone will be sufficient to ease inflationary pressures. The economy is running near or above capacity, and the RBI has noted that production must rise at a pace sufficient to match overall GDP growth if further inflationary pressures are to be avoided. The Indian government has said that much of the rise in inflation recently can be attributed to short-term supply constraints, such as a shortage of key foodstuffs thanks to an erratic summer monsoon.

The social infrastructure in India such as roads, power grid, water, communications infrastructure, housing and education are often below standards, and not catching up with the tune of its economic progress. Continued poor infrastructure might serve as a bottleneck to further economic development. The government is, however, improving the infrastructure, such as expanding the freeway and highway system and bringing it up to global standards. As of 2005, India only had 4,885 km of central-divided expressways, while the U.S. and China have 90,000 km and 41,000 km of expressways, respectively. India's continual economic prosperity is also hindered by bad governance and ubiquitous red tape (‘Bureaucratic Raj'). Retrogressive government regulations affect many areas. For example, in some states, black outs and power rationing are common due to underinvestment, differing state and local regulations, etc.

Society & Quality of Life

As of 2005, approximately 22-26% of India's population lived below poverty line. Poverty also begets child labour. Various reforms, including mass employment schemes have been undertaken by the government to tackle this problem, and India has been quite successful in reducing its share of poverty. The number of people living on $1 a day is expected to fall in South Asia from 41.5 per cent in 1990 to 16.4 per cent until 2015. However, the issue of poverty in India is not fully resolved. There is consensus among economists that overall poverty in India has declined, the extent of poverty reduction is often debated . The economic reforms of the early 1990s were followed by rates of high economic growth. Its effect on poverty remain controversial, and the official numbers published by the Government of India, showing a reduction of poverty from 36% (1993–94) to 26% (1999 – 00), to 22% (2004 - 05), have been challenged both for allegedly showing too little and too much poverty reduction. While there is a consensus on the fact that liberalization has led to a reduction of income poverty, the picture is not so clear if one considers other non-pecuniary dimensions (such as health, education, crime and access to infrastructure). With the rapid economic growth that India is experiencing, it is likely that a significant fraction of the rural population will continue to migrate toward cities, making the issue of urban poverty more significant in the long run . Economist Pravin Visaria has defended the validity of many of the statistics that demonstrated the reduction in overall poverty in India. He insisted that the 1999-2000 survey was well designed and supervised, and he further defended that just because the numbers did not appear to fit preconceived notions about poverty in India, they should not be dismissed outright. Nicholas Stern, vice president of the World Bank, has published defenses of the poverty reduction statistics. He argues that increasing globalization and investment opportunities have contributed significantly to the reduction of poverty in the country. India, has shown one of the clearest co-relation trends of globalization with the accelerated rise in per-capita income.

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Dams like the Srisailam Dam have mitigated India's power needs.

India's health scenario is dismal with diseases and malnutrition constantly affecting the poorest quarter of the populace. Mortality is still relatively high and the bane of AIDS is spreading quickly. According to a report of United Nations Development Program, India has the third highest population living with AIDS/HIV and its economy might suffer a setback if it does not check the problem of the virus' spread. To improve the situation, a number of projects such as the building of hospital chains (like the Apollo Hospitals, amongst others) has laid the foundation for a health system that matches global standards. The program has had positive impact. The number of AIDS patients in India declined from 5.7 million in 2002 to 2.5 million in 2007. India's AIDS prevalence percentage now stands below that of several developed economies including Portugal, Spain and the United States.

As per the 2001 India census, India's national literacy is only 65.2 percent. Literacy drive is spreading slowly to other states. India's youth (age 15 to 24) literacy rate was 76.4% between 2000 and 2004. At current rates India will take no less than 20 years for a literacy of 95%.. Literacy in India is not homogeneous, some states in India have more impressive literacy rates than others. Kerala, a south-Indian state widely recognized as the most well-educated state in India, recorded an impressive 90.92% literacy rate in 2001. On the other hand the north-Indian state of Bihar lags behind with 47.53%. India's adult literacy rates (61.3% in 2002), is just a little better compared to other nations in South Asia except Sri Lanka's 92%, with Nepal next at 44%, Pakistan at 41.5% and Bangladesh the lowest at 41.1%.

India has a diverse mix of various religions and races. The majority are Hindus by religion, followed by Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Jains, Buddhists, Bahaii and many more. Though most religions in India have been practising religious tolerance in their histories, the partition and subsequent terrorism had created some degree of uneasiness among some. The uneducated masses of these various groups sometimes get at odds with one another. However in recent years, relations between the different religious groups have considerably changed for better. For instance, a real chunk of India's celebrities - sporting legends, film stars, industrialists, artists, politicians, scientists, head-of-state, etc - have come from various non-majority roots, representing the emerging face of new diverse India.

The problem of India's social divide is often linked to its millennial-old caste system. In an attempt to eliminate the caste system, the Indian government has introduced special quotas for low-caste Indians in educational institutions and jobs. The measure is with the motive of helping lower-caste Indians to pursue higher education and thereby elevate their standard of life. However, the system is often criticised about its effectiveness as so called creamy layer (rich among the lower caste) get non-needed advantage & leave other lower caste groups poor only. There also have been cases of reverse-discrimination and persecution of upper castes by lower castes .

Climate

The majority of India lies in the tropical climate zone, which may have a negative impact on its agricultural and overall economic development. The climate thesis of economic development was first argued by Adam Smith and recently by David Landes in his The Wealth and Poverty of Nations. Tropical areas generally average enough rainfall, but the timing is often irregular and unpredictable. The rain drops are large and the rate of fall often torrential. One answer to irregular moisture is storage and irrigation, but this is countered in these regions by incredibly high rates of evaporation. In the Agra region of India, for example, rainfall exceeds the needs of local agriculture for only two months in the year, and the excess held in the soil in those wet months dries up in only three weeks. Tropical zones are also more prone to endemic water-borne and parasitic diseases such as cholera and malaria. As a result of climate change, the Gangotri Glacier, among others, is receding. Also, of the 3 million premature deaths in the world that occur each year due to outdoor and indoor air pollution, the highest number are assessed to occur in India.

Russia

Russian Federation

The Russian Federation is a suggested potential candidate for achieving superpower status in the twenty-first century due to its fast-growing economy, energy superpower status and the size of its military. According to Steven Rosefielde of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Russia intends to "reemerge as a full-fledged superpower," and "contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal is easily within the Kremlin’s grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security would be immense" (Rosefielde 2005:1). Rosefielde further argues that "Russia has an intact military-industrial complex...and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally militarized potential," and that "supply-side constraints don’t preclude a return to prodigal superpowerdom" (Rosefielde 2005:9).

In May 2007, the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation held special hearings devoted to Russia. They came to the conclusion that Russia is returning to the international arena as an influential political and economic power. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, said: "Russia has restored its position of a large political and economic force recently", also adding that "Russia’s strengthening has been accompanied by a cool down in its relations with the U.S." Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that the West "has few instruments of influence on Russia left."

Alexander Golts of the St. Petersburg Times argues that Putin's confrontations with the US on nuclear issues are in pursuit of regaining superpower status for Russia.

In a more recent report by ABC News, a senior U.S. official asserted that "Russia is once again indisputably the number two military power in the world, second only to the United States". Russia's military strength has risen substantially under former President Putin, having recently produced the world's most powerful conventional bomb and the worlds most advanced anti-ballistic missile system to date. Additionally, its forces are currently in the midst of a $189 billion ($302 billion PPP) modernization plan. Russia's defence minister, Sergei Ivanov, said that he wanted to exceed the Soviet army in combat readiness.

Mike Ritchie of industry analysts Energy Intelligence says "Russia was always a superpower that used its energy to win friends and influence among its former Soviet satellites. Nothing has really changed much. They are back in the same game, winning friends and influencing people and using their power to do so."

Russia is often considered to be an energy superpower and a nuclear superpower due to its vast amounts of natural resources and large nuclear arsenal mostly leftover from the former Soviet Union.

Facts in Favour

Demographics

Russia is the largest country in the world by land area, and the ninth largest in terms of population. Russia is 1.8 times bigger than the US. Russia’s diverse climate ranges from steppes in the south to subarctic temperatures in the north, with low plains in the west and forests in the east. Russia has some of the largest natural resources deposits in the world. The soil is ineffective for agriculture due to the climate being either too dry or too wet. Thus, only 7.17% of the land is used for farming. Instead, much of Russia’s land is used for the harvesting of the countries rich natural resources. .

Economics

A Rosneft petrol station. Russia is the world's leading natural gas exporter and the second leading oil exporter.

Russia has the world's largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves and the eighth largest oil reserves. It is the world's leading natural gas exporter and the second leading oil exporter. Oil, natural gas, metals, and timber account for more than 80% of Russian exports abroad. The EIA stated that the Russian economy is very depenent on oil and gas exports Since 2003, however, exports of natural resources started decreasing in economic importance as the internal market strengthened considerably. In 2005 the IMF and World Bank suggested that the oil and gas sector represented around 20% of the GDP, generated over 60% of its export revenues (64% in 2007). Russia is also considered well ahead of most other resource-rich countries in its economic development, with a long tradition of education, science, and industry. The country has more higher education graduates than any other country in Europe.

Soyuz TMA-2 moves to launch pad, about to carry the first resident crew to the International Space Station, at Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan

Over the last five years, fixed capital investments have averaged real gains greater than 10% per year and personal incomes have achieved real gains more than 12% per year. During this time, poverty has declined steadily and the middle class has continued to expand. Russia has also improved its international financial position since the 1998 financial crisis. A principal factor in Russia's growth has been the combination of strong growth in productivity, real wages, and consumption. Despite the country's strong economic performance since 1999, however, the World Bank lists several challenges facing the Russian economy including diversifying the economy, encouraging the growth of small and medium enterprises, building human capital and improving corporate governance. High inflation continues to plague the country along with many of its Eastern European neighbors, having grown to about 12% by the end of 2007 up from 9% in 2006. The upward trend continued in the first quarter of 2008, driven largely by rising food costs.

Military

Russian paratroopers at an exercise in Kazakhstan

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The Topol-M is one of the world's newest and most sophisticated nuclear missiles. It is designed to be immune to any known or planned ABM defense.

Russia assumed control of Soviet assets abroad and most of the Soviet Union's production facilities and defense industries are located in the country. The Russian military is divided into the Ground Forces, Navy, and Air Force. There are also three independent arms of service: Strategic Rocket Forces, Military Space Forces, and the Airborne Troops. In 2006, the military had 1.037 million personnel on active duty. Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. It has the second largest fleet of ballistic missile submarines and is the only country apart from the U.S. with a modern strategic bomber force. The country has a large and fully indigenous arms industry, producing all of its own military equipment. Russia is the world's top supplier of weapons, a spot it has held since 2001, accounting for around 30% of worldwide weapons sales and exporting weapons to about 80 countries. Following the Soviet practice, it is mandatory for all male citizens aged 18–27 to be drafted for two years' Armed Forces service, though various problems associated with this is why the armed forces are from 2008 reducing the conscription term from 18 months to 12, and plan to increase contract servicemen to compose 70% of the armed forces by 2010. Defense expenditure has quadrupled over the past six years. Official government military spending for 2008 is $40 billion, though various sources, including US intelligence, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies, have estimated Russia’s military expenditures to be considerably higher. Currently, the military is undergoing a major equipment upgrade with about $200 billion (what equals to about $400 billion in PPP dollars) on procurement of military equipment between 2006 and 2015.

Politics

Russia is a unitary state and a republic. The largest political party is United Russia, the party run of the incumbent Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Russia is part of SCO, a cooperation organization and military alliance consisting of much of Asia. Russia has good relations with many of its neighbors, despite attempts to prevent former parts of the Soviet Union from joining Western organizations like NATO and the EU. Russia has strained relations with much of the West in response to the belief that President Boris Yeltsin of the 90s was too conciliatory to the Western powers. Russia’s current leaders are eager to show to the world that Russia is no longer a mindless servant of the West, as they believe it was during the 1990s.

Facts against

Demographics

A country's demographics is essential to attain superpower status. For instance, India has a young, growing population. However, Russia has a rapidly shrinking and ageing population. . A shrinking workforce leads generally leads to a stagnating or shrinking economy. According to the most recent data compiled by the State Statistics Committee, the average life expectancy for Russian men is less than 59 years - 58 years and 11 months - while that for Russian women is 72 years. The combined figure is 65 years and three months. Factors behind this include alcohol abuse, psychological stress caused by economic uncertainty, widespread smoking, poor personal-safety practices, an unhealthy diet and a general lack of exercise. In addition, the forced Siberian migrations of the Soviet era have been reversed. Siberians have been remigrating to European Russia. At the same time, large Chinese immigration has replaced those Russians leaving, leading to seperatism and revanchist movements.

Politics

In addition, to a shrinking population, Russia has a shrinking sphere of influence. A sphere of influence is essential to superpower status. For instance in the Cold War, the US and the USSR had large globe-straddling spheres of influence. Russia's is being snatched up by two rival potential superpowers: the EU and China. Mongolia, a former Soviet satellite state, is now firmly in China's sphere of influence. China has made great gains in Central Asia, such as in Kyrgystan and Tajikistan. Much of the Warsaw Pact countries and parts of the USSR have fallen under the EU's sphere of influence. The Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary have joined the EU, with other states becoming candidate or potential candidate countries. Ukraine and Georgia have requested NATO membership.

Economics

Economic influence is a cornerstone of superpower status. Russia is currently the tenth largest economy in the world, and is approximately twelve times smaller than the US economy. Russia is heavily reliant on resource extraction, espicially fossil fuels, for its economy. Its estimated that fossil fuels make up 30% of Russia's government revenues. It has fueled Russia's economic growth over the last several years. A drop in oil and natural gas prices would slash that growth. Foreign debt accounts for one-third of Russian GDP. Inflation is currently a large 10.9%. Russia may suffer from "Dutch disease" that occurs in nations dependent on raw materials. Manufacturing output suffers and is combined with moral fallout.

See also

• Superpower
• Great Power
• Potential great powers