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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant

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The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant[a] is a variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The variant was first reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from South Africa on 24 November 2021.[1] On 26 November 2021, the WHO designated it as a variant of concern and named it after omicron, the fifteenth letter in the Greek alphabet.[2][3]

The variant has an unusually large number of mutations, several of which are novel[b] and several of which affect the spike protein used for most vaccine targeting at the time of its discovery. This level of variation has led to concerns regarding transmissibility, immune system evasion, and vaccine resistance. As a result, the variant was quickly designated as being "of concern," and travel restrictions were introduced by several countries to limit or slow its international spread.

Classification

Nomenclature

On 26 November, the WHO's Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution declared PANGO lineage B.1.1.529 a variant of concern and designated it with the Greek letter omicron.[1][2][3] The WHO skipped the preceding letters nu and xi in the Greek alphabet to avoid confusion with the similarities of the English word "new" and the Chinese surname Xi.[2][3][4][5] The World Health Organization reserves the Omicron designation for "variants of concern".[6][3]

The GISAID project has assigned it the clade identifier GR/484A[7] and the Nextstrain project has assigned it the clade identifier 21K.[8]

Mutations

  • Genomic sequence
    Genomic sequence
Defining mutations in the
SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant
Gene Amino acid
ORF1ab nsp3: K38R
nsp3: V1069I
nsp3: Δ1265
nsp3: L1266I
nsp3: A1892T
nsp4: T492I
nsp5: P132H
nsp6: Δ105-107
nsp6: A189V
nsp12: P323L
nsp14: I42V
Spike A67V
Δ69-70
T95I
G142D,
Δ143-145
Δ211
L212I
ins214EPE
G339D
S371L
S373P
S375F
K417N
N440K
G446S
S477N
T478K
E484A
Q493R
G496S
Q498R
N501Y
Y505H
T547K
D614G
H655Y
N679K
P681H
N764K
D796Y
N856K
Q954H
N969K
L981F
E T9I
M D3G
Q19E
A63T
N P13L
Δ31-33
R203K
G204R
Sources: EDCD Threat Assessment Brief[9] CoVariants [8]

The variant has a large number of mutations, of which some are concerning.[10] Thirty-two mutations affect the spike protein, the main antigenic target of antibodies generated by infections and of many vaccines widely administered. Many of those mutations had not been observed in other strains.[11][12] The variant is characterised by 30 amino acid changes, three small deletions and one small insertion in the spike protein compared with the original virus, of which 15 are located in the receptor binding domain (residues 319-541). It also carries a number of changes and deletions in other genomic regions. Additionally, the variant has three mutations at the furin cleavage site.[13] The furin cleavage site increases SARS-CoV-2 infectivity.[14] The mutations by genomic region are the following:[15][9]

Spike protein with mutations highlighted, looking down onto the receptor-binding domain
Spike protein with mutations highlighted, looking at the side of the protei
Illustration of the locations of the Omicron mutations in the spike protein, top view (left) and side view (right), showing amino acid substitutions (yellow), deletions (red), and insertions (green). In this trimeric structure, two monomers (gray and light blue) have their receptor-binding domains in the "down" conformation while one (dark blue) is in the "up" or "open" conformation. Mutation data from WHO,[1] structure from PDB: 6VYB​.[16]
  • Spike protein: A67V, Δ69-70, T95I, G142D, Δ143-145, Δ211, L212I, ins214EPE, G339D, S371L, S373P, S375F, K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493R, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H, T547K, D614G, H655Y, N679K, P681H, N764K, D796Y, N856K, Q954H, N969K, L981F
    • Half (15) of these 30 changes are located in the receptor binding domain-RBD (residues 319-541)
  • ORF1ab
    • nsp3: K38R, V1069I, Δ1265, L1266I, A1892T
    • nsp4: T492I
    • nsp5: P132H
    • nsp6: Δ105-107, A189V
    • nsp12: P323L
    • nsp14: I42V
  • Envelope protein: T9I
  • Membrane protein: D3G, Q19E, A63T
  • Nucleocapsid protein: P13L, Δ31-33, R203K, G204R

Reactions to mutations

The WHO is concerned that the large number of mutations may reduce immunity in people who were previously infected and in vaccinated people. Then again, the omicron variant might be more ineffective in this regard than prior variants. The effects of the mutations, if any, are unknown as of late November 2021. The WHO warns that health services could be overwhelmed especially in nations with low vaccination rates where mortality and morbidity rates are likely to be much higher, and urges all nations to increase COVID vaccinations.[17]

Professor Paul Morgan, immunologist at Cardiff University also recommends vaccination. Morgan said, “I think a blunting rather than a complete loss [of immunity] is the most likely outcome. The virus can’t possibly lose every single epitope on its surface, because if it did that spike protein couldn’t work any more. So, while some of the antibodies and T cell clones made against earlier versions of the virus, or against the vaccines may not be effective, there will be others, which will remain effective. (...) If half, or two-thirds, or whatever it is, of the immune response is not going to be effective, and you’re left with the residual half, then the more boosted that is the better.”[18]

Symptoms

Main article: Symptoms of COVID-19

No unusual symptoms have yet been associated with the variant and, as with other variants, some individuals are asymptomatic.[19]

Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, said she had first encountered the variant in patients who had fatigue, aches and pains, but no cough or change in sense of smell or taste.[20]

Fergus Walsh wrote, "South Africa has a young population and it is encouraging that doctors there are reporting that Omicron is causing mild symptoms with no increase in hospital admissions. But we need to see what happens when the variant moves into older age groups who are the most vulnerable to Covid."[21] However the World Health Organization in an update on the variant stated "Preliminary data suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalization in South Africa"[22], even if it has not been determined that this is attributed to this specific variant.

Prevention

See also: COVID-19 § Prevention

As with other variants, the WHO recommended that people continue to keep enclosed spaces well ventilated, avoid crowding and close contact, wear well-fitting masks, clean hands frequently, and get vaccinated.[1][23]

On 26 November, BioNTech said it would know in two weeks whether the current vaccine is effective against the variant and that an updated vaccine can be shipped in 100 days if necessary. AstraZeneca, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson were also studying the variant's impact on the effectiveness of their vaccines.[24] On 29 November, Sinovac said it can quickly mass-produce an inactivated vaccine against the variant and that it is monitoring studies and collecting samples of the variant to determine if a new vaccine is needed.[25] The Gamaleya Institute said that Sputnik Light should be effective against the variant, that it would begin adapting Sputnik V, and that a modified version could be ready for mass production in 45 days.[26]

WHO asked nations to do the following:

  • "Enhance surveillance and sequencing efforts to better understand circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.
  • Submit complete genome sequences and associated metadata to a publicly available database, such as GISAID.
  • Report initial cases/clusters associated with virus-of-concern infection to WHO through the IHR mechanism.
  • Where capacity exists and in coordination with the international community, perform field investigations and laboratory assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of the virus of concern on COVID-19 epidemiology, severity, effectiveness of public health and social measures, diagnostic methods, immune responses, antibody neutralization, or other relevant characteristics."[27]

Diagnosis

See also: COVID-19 testing

Current PCR tests can detect the variant. Some laboratories have indicated that a widely used PCR test does not detect one of the three target genes. Just as with the Alpha variant, this partial detection ("S gene target failure") can serve as a marker for the variant, however.[1] Rapid antigen tests are likely not affected.[19]

Characteristics

Many of the mutations to the spike protein are present in other variants of concern and are related to increased infectivity and antibody evasion. Computational modeling suggests that the variant may also escape cell-mediated immunity.[12]

On 26 November, the ECDC wrote that an evaluation of the neutralizing capacity of convalescent sera and of vaccines is urgently needed to assess possible immune escape, saying these data are expected within two to three weeks.[9]

As of November 2021, it is unknown how the variant will spread in populations with high levels of immunity, it is also unknown if the omicron variant causes a milder or more severe COVID infection. According to pharmaceutical companies, vaccines could be updated to combat the variant "in around 100 days" if necessary.[28]

Epidemiology

The number of cases in the B.1.1.529 lineage is increasing throughout South Africa, mainly in the province of Gauteng.[10] Some evidence shows that this variant has an increased risk of reinfection. Studies are underway to evaluate the impact on transmissibility, mortality, and other factors. Evidence regarding the implications of this variant and vaccine efficacy is under investigation.[23][29]

In 2020, South African infection rates reached a low on 11 November. Shortly after; cases then peaked in mid-January 2021. Similarly in 2021, cases bottomed out on 11 November, before again rising rapidly, growing four-fold by 25 November.[30]

There is still vast uncertainty about Omicron's transmissibility compared to the Delta variant, with speculations of a possible 100% increase (twice as transmissible)[31][32] to 500% increase (six times as transmissible).[33] There were low but rising numbers of cases in South Africa when the variant was identified, and it is unknown whether the variant is any more transmissible than Delta, or if its apparent rapid spread is instead due to other factors such as superspreader events.[12][34]

It was estimated the variant emerged in September or October 2021.[35] This was worrying, as a single case from then now already appears to affect a significant percentage of airline passengers from South Africa, which moreover, are presumed relatively COVID-free due to testing, vaccination or recovery. This indicates a large absolute growth. However, it may also have emerged in its current incarnation as early as 2020.[36][37]

Statistics

Cumulative confirmed Omicron variant cases by country
  •   100–999
  •   10–99
  •   1–9
  •   0

GISAID data as of 29 November 2021, unless otherwise stated:[38]

Confirmed cases by country
Country Confirmed cases
 South Africa 114
 Botswana 19
 United Kingdom 14[39]
 Netherlands 14[40]
 Portugal 13[41]
 Australia 6[42]
 Italy 4[43][44]
 Germany 3[45]
 Hong Kong 3[46]
 Denmark 2[47]
 Canada 2[48]
 Israel 2[49][50]
 Austria 1[51]
 Belgium 1[52]
 Czech Republic 1[53][54]
 Japan 1[55]
 Spain 1[56][57]
 Sweden 1[58][57]
World (18 countries and Territories) Total: 203

History

Reported cases

Main article: Timeline of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant

On 24 November 2021, the variant was first reported to the WHO from South Africa,[1] however, the first known specimen was reportedly collected on 9 November 2021 from Botswana.[12] It was also detected in South Africa;[59] one case had traveled to Hong Kong.[60][61] Additionally, one confirmed case was identified in Israel from a traveler returning from Malawi,[62] along with two who returned from South Africa and one from Madagascar.[63] One confirmed case in Belgium had apparently acquired it in Egypt before 11 November.[64]

All four initial cases reported from Botswana occurred among fully vaccinated individuals.[65] All three initial confirmed and suspected cases reported from Israel occurred among fully vaccinated individuals,[62] as did a single suspected case in Germany.[66]

On 27 November, two cases were detected in the United Kingdom, another two in Munich, Germany and one in Milan, Italy.[43] The Dutch health ministry estimated that 61 of the around 600 passengers on two flights from South Africa that had landed at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 26 November (which had taken off just before the Netherlands had banned travel from South Africa) tested positive for COVID-19, 13 of these were later confirmed to be Omicron cases.[67] Entry into the Netherlands (and thus getting on the flight) generally required having been vaccinated or PCR-tested, or having recovered. One of the flights originated from Johannesburg, Gauteng. Gauteng is where the Omicron variant appears to be dominant already. The passengers of both flights had been tested and quarantined upon arrival because of the newly imposed restrictions.[68]

On 28 November, two cases were detected in Sydney, Australia. Both people landed in Sydney the previous day, and travelled from southern Africa to Sydney via Doha Airport. The two people, who were fully vaccinated, entered isolation; 12 other travellers from southern Africa also entered quarantine for fourteen days, while about 260 other passengers and crew on the flight have been directed to isolate.[69] Two travellers from South Africa who landed in Denmark tested positive for COVID-19; it was later confirmed on 28 November that the two travellers carried the Omicron variant.[47][70] On the same day, Austria also confirmed their first Omicron case.[71] A detected Omicron case was reported in the Czech Republic, from a traveler who spent time in Namibia.[54] Canada also reported its first Omicron cases, with two, from travelers from Nigeria, therefore becoming the first North American country to report an Omicron case.[72]

On 29 November, a positive case was recorded in Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia. The person arrived in Darwin on a repatriation flight from Johannesburg, South Africa on 25 November, and was taken to a quarantine facility, where the positive test was recorded.[73] Two more people who travelled to Sydney from southern Africa via Singapore tested positive.[74] Portugal reported 13 Omicron cases, all of them members of a soccer club.[75] Sweden also confirmed their first case on 29 November,[58] as did Spain, when a traveler came from South Africa.[76]

On 30 November, a positive case was recorded in Sydney, Australia, from a person who had visited southern Africa before arriving in Sydney prior to travel restrictions, and was subsequently active in the community.[42]

Market reactions

Main article: Financial market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Worry about the potential economic impact of the Omicron variant led to a drop in global markets on 26 November, including the worst drop of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2021, led by travel-related stocks. The price of Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate oil fell 10% and 11.7%, respectively.[77] Cryptocurrency markets were also routed.[78][79] The South African rand has also hit an all-time low for 2021, trading at over 16 rand to the dollar, losing 6% of its value in November.[80][81][82] As of 28 November 2021, all known cases outside of South Africa and Botswana have been travel related. The Belgium case was related to Egypt. Recent travelers have been subject to more testing, biasing the results.[83]

International response

On 26 November, WHO advised countries not to impose new restrictions on travel, instead recommending a "risk-based and scientific" approach to travel measures.[84] On the same day the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reported modeling indicating that strict travel restrictions would delay the variant's impact on European countries by two weeks, possibly allowing countries to prepare for it.[9]

After the WHO announcement, on the same day, several countries announced travel bans from southern Africa in response to the identification of the variant, including the United States, which banned travel from eight African countries,[85] although it notably did not ban travel from any European countries, Israel, Canada or Australia where cases were also detected. Other countries included Japan, Canada, the European Union, Israel, Australia, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Morocco, and New Zealand.[86][87][88][89][90][91][72][excessive citations]

The Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency recommended flight restrictions regarding the new variant.[92] The state of New York declared a state of emergency ahead of a potential Omicron spike, although no cases had yet been detected in the state or the rest of the United States.[93] On 27 November, Switzerland introduced obligatory tests and quarantine for all visitors arriving from countries where the variant was detected, which originally included Belgium and Israel.[94]

In response, South African Minister of Health Joe Phaahla defended his country's handling of the pandemic and said that travel bans went against the "norms and standards" of the World Health Organization.[95]

Travel bans are most likely to have a significant impact on South Africa's economy by limiting tourism and could lead other countries to hide the discovery of new variants of concern. Low vaccine coverage in less-developed nations creates opportunities for the emergence of new variants, and these nations struggle to gain intellectual property to develop and produce vaccines locally.[96] At the same time, inoculation has slowed in South Africa due to vaccine hesitancy and apathy, with only 35% of the population being fully vaccinated as of November 2021.[97]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ For other names, see § Nomenclature
  2. ^ Also known as autapomorphy

References

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