2021 California gubernatorial recall election

See also: 2021 United States gubernatorial elections

2021 California gubernatorial recall election

September 14, 2021

Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom Democratic

The 2021 California gubernatorial recall election is an upcoming special election on whether to recall Governor Gavin Newsom, scheduled to be held in-person on September 14, 2021, with every voter set to receive a ballot at their address for the option to vote by mail, beginning August 16, 2021.

Before this election, the only other gubernatorial recall attempt in California that qualified for a general vote happened in 2003, which resulted in Gray Davis being replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger. The recall election will be the fourth gubernatorial recall election ever held in the United States. This election is the result of one of at least 54 attempts in California's history to remove an elected governor from office and one of six efforts to remove Newsom. Every California governor since 1960 has faced some form of recall attempt.

Background

Following their ascension into power in 1911, California's Progressive Era Republican reformers introduced the recall and referendum processes, alongside other sweeping reforms like women's suffrage, to weaken the influence of private interests and restore, according to newly-elected Governor Hiram Johnson, "the people's rule". In 2021, California was one of 19 states to allow recall elections. Under state law, any elected official may be subjected to a recall. To trigger a recall election of a statewide elected official, proponents must gather a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number must equal at least 12 percent of the votes cast in the previous election for that office. Based on the previous gubernatorial election, the 2021 recall petition required 1,495,709 signatures.

When the secretary of state confirms that a recall petition meets the required number of signatures, a recall election must be scheduled within 60 to 80 days. If the petition qualified less than 180 days prior to the next regularly scheduled election, then the recall would become part of that regularly scheduled election. In the case of a recall against the governor, the responsibility for scheduling the recall election falls on the lieutenant governor, which for 2021 is Eleni Kounalakis.

Following legislation, all registered voters will be mailed a ballot for any elections held in 2021, which would include the gubernatorial recall election.

A recall ballot in California consists of two questions: whether the incumbent should be recalled, and if recalled, which challenger should replace them. If a majority of voters favors removing the incumbent by selecting "yes" on the first question, then the challenger who receives the most votes finishes out the incumbent's term in office.

Newsom recall petition

During Gavin Newsom's tenure as governor, a total of seven recall petitions were launched against him, with all but one failing to gain much traction (the exception being the one that led to this recall election). The basis for the other recall petitions included the state's "Universal Healthcare and laws regarding illegal aliens" and "homelessness." On February 20, 2020, the petition which would eventually lead to the 2021 recall election was served against Newsom, with timing that coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

On June 10, 2020, then-Secretary of State Alex Padilla approved petitioners' petitions for circulation. The recall petition focused on a variety of grievances, such as illegal immigrants, homelessness, taxes, and water rationing. Newsom's official response to the petition touted his support for funding education, health care, and infrastructure, noted the State's fiscal health, and warned that the recall campaign was a partisan attack that would result in a costly election.

The recall campaign hired a political consulting firm in late June 2020, and the initial plan was to pay circulators to collect signatures. To ensure a successful validation, the recall campaign sought to gather 2 million signatures. Given the difficulties in obtaining signatures during the pandemic, however, the per-signature cost rose dramatically, and petitioners opted to proceed with a team of approximately 5,000 volunteer circulators instead. The first proponent of the recall, Orrin Heatlie, played a grassroots role in the previous attempt led by aspiring Tea Party politician Erin Cruz.

The petition was initially given a signature deadline of November 17, 2020, but was extended to March 17, 2021, by Sacramento County Superior Court Judge James P. Arguelles due to the pandemic. Arguelles ruled that recall proponents would have a longer time window to collect signatures than they normally would have under non-pandemic circumstances.

French Laundry party

Newsom was widely criticized for his attendance at a birthday party with more than three households at The French Laundry restaurant in Yountville in the Napa Valley despite guidelines issued by his administration ahead of an expected holiday COVID-19 surge which limited private gatherings to at most three households. Also in attendance were multiple lobbyists, including both the head lobbyist and the CEO of the California Medical Association. Newsom and his office initially defended the outing while saying it was the first time he and his wife dined with others in public since the COVID-19 pandemic began, that public dining recommendations were separate from state guidelines for private gatherings, and that the party was held outdoors.

The day after Newsom claimed the party had been held outdoors, photographs showing an enclosed and maskless gathering were published and widely shared. Neighboring diners said Newsom's party was so loud, restaurant staff closed off their garage-like dining space with sliding glass doors, essentially making an indoor dining space. Napa County was in the "orange tier" of pandemic severity at the time, which permitted some indoor dining. Newsom later apologized for attending the celebration. The incident severely damaged Newsom's image and credibility amid the public health crisis.

This incident and voter anger over lockdowns, job losses, and school and business closures were widely credited for the recall petition's surge in support. Other reasons included a $31 billion fraud scandal at the state unemployment agency and pre-pandemic grievences over homelessness and high taxes. By August, the petitioners had submitted 55,000 signatures, and from August through October, a total of 890 new signatures were submitted. Coincidentally, both the French Laundry party and the extension of the signature collection deadline happened on November 6 and between November 5 and December 7, over 442,000 new signatures were submitted and verified.

Reactions

The petition received the support of statewide and nationwide Republicans, with the Republican Governors Association commissioning a poll involving prospective candidates in February 2021. Newsom refused to acknowledge the developing recall movement when questioned by reporters. In January 2021, Rusty Hicks, the chairman of the California Democratic Party, likened it to the storming of the U.S. Capitol, calling it the "California coup." The comparison drew bipartisan criticism, with Newsom's former deputy chief of staff, Yashar Ali, saying it was "absolutely insane to frame a recall where the voters go to the polls a coup." In February 2021, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki indicated and later confirmed that the Biden administration opposed the recall and was in contact with Newsom's office in regards to it.

Certification

The recall campaign submitted 2,117,730 signatures by the March 2021 deadline. On April 26, 2021, the office of Secretary of State Shirley Weber announced that the recall effort had gained enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, pending official certification after a period of 30 days where voters could retract their signatures and where state officials tallied the costs to conduct the election (up to 60 days). The count yielded 1,719,943 valid signatures, which was roughly 13.8 percent of votes cast in 2018, exceeding the 12 percent threshold required to trigger the recall election. On June 23, 2021, the secretary of state announced that only 43 recall signatories withdrew their signatures statewide prior to the withdrawal deadline, resulting in a final count of 1,719,900 signatures, and all but ensuring a special election to recall Gavin Newsom from the governor's office.

After official certification, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis was legally required to call the election within 60 to 80 days. The official certification occurred on July 1, and on the same day, Kounalakis called the election for September 14, 2021.

Changes to state recall election laws

Beginning in 2017 and up to the 2021 gubernatorial recall, California's Democratic-led government enacted legislation to change how recall elections are conducted, along with other aspects of recall elections.

Recall election timeline (SB 117 and SB 152)

In 2017, ahead of the successful recall of State Senator Josh Newman (D-Fullerton), Democratic legislators changed the law concerning recall elections with Senate Bill 117 to give voters 30 business days to withdraw their names from the recall petition. The 2017 law change also added a 30 day period for the state Department of Finance to conduct a cost estimate, and the Joint Legislative Budget Committee has 30 days to review that estimate.

On June 28, 2021, Newsom signed Senate Bill 152 into law, which could have allowed a recall election as early as August 2021, by shortening the recall timeline which had been lengthened prior to the recall of Senator Newman. The changes allowed the Lieutenant Governor to set a date for the recall without waiting for the Joint Legislative Budget Committee to review the cost estimate "so long as the Legislature has appropriated the funds it determines 'reasonably necessary' to conduct the recall election." With the same law change, the legislature appropriated $250 million to administer the recall election.

Election cost

While Newsom's pre-pandemic response to the recall effort in early 2020 warned that a special recall election would cost $81 million, county officials estimated in June 2021 that an election which would take place in November would cost taxpayers $215 million. This higher estimate had presumed a lengthy recall calendar featuring the rule changes enacted in 2017 ahead of Senator Newman's recall, as well as higher paper costs due to state requirements for universal mail-in ballots enacted in 2020 and extended for 2021 elections.

California's county election clerks urged Lieutenant Governor Kounalakis to schedule the election for at least after mid-September, citing an inability to guarantee a successful election, possible voter confusion, and the potential for costs far beyond the original estimate. An earlier election could help Newsom defeat the recall by avoiding political fallout over fires, virus variants, or school reopenings, which could coincide with a November election. On July 1, the Department of Finance released an estimate of the cost of the election, which was called for September 14, 2021, that same day, at $276 million.

Newsom's campaign and Democratic legislative leaders of both state houses had criticized the recall election as a waste of taxpayer money, while recall proponents said, "You can't put a price on democracy," and that some costs could have been avoided if officials allowed for a "traditional" election without universal mail-in ballots. While the projected total cost of the recall is close to the $292 million spent on the 2020 general election in California, which was the first to feature universal mail-in ballots, the cost per voter is significantly higher than in the 2018 midterm elections.

Tax return disclosure (SB 27)

Main article: Senate Bill 27

A new requirement for gubernatorial candidates to disclose their most recent tax returns was passed into law in 2019, when Governor Newsom signed Senate Bill 27. Although the language of the law says that gubernatorial candidates must publicize the prior five years of their tax returns in order for their names to appear on a "primary ballot," the secretary of state applied the law to the recall election. The law has been cited as a potential reason for the major reduction in recall replacement candidates relative to the number of candidates in the 2003 gubernatorial recall.

The tax return disclosure requirement did not apply to Gavin Newsom, who was not considered a "candidate" in the recall. Newsom's campaign nonetheless submitted his tax documents to Secretary of State Weber, who refused to publish them on the grounds that the Governor was not required to disclose them. Newsom's campaign did not respond to a reporter's July 19, 2021, request for his recent tax returns.

On July 21, 2021, Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Laurie Earl invalidated all tax return disclosure requirements for the 2021 recall election. The ruling was on a suit filed by prospective recall challenger Larry Elder against Secretary of State Weber, alleging she overstepped her authority by disqualifying him from his candidacy due to a purported tax return filing error. The judge ruled that Weber had improperly disqualified Elder, who had "substantially complied" with the requirements and that the special recall election was not a primary election and therefore Senate Bill 27 did not even apply. By then, 42 candidates' tax returns had already been made public by the secretary of state's office.

Incumbent's party preference (SB 151)

In 2019, Newsom signed Senate Bill 151 into law, which gave recall targets the right to state their party preference on the recall ballot. Newsom was unable to take advantage of the new law after his campaign missed a February 2020 deadline to state his party preference. In June and July 2021, Newsom's campaign sued Secretary of State Shirley Weber (whom he appointed earlier in 2021) over the issue, but lost the case. Weber sided with him, telling the judge that voters would benefit from knowing Newsom's political party preference. The lawyers arguing the case in opposition to Newsom before Judge James P. Arguelles (who had also approved the recall signature deadline extention) represented replacement candidate Caitlyn Jenner and proponents of the recall.

Proposed changes

In April 2021, two bills that could make future recalls less likely were introduced in the California Senate: the first, authored by Senator Ben Allen (D-Redondo Beach), would allow a targeted incumbent to be a candidate on the recall ballot; the second, authored by Senator Josh Newman (who by 2020 had reclaimed his lost state senate seat) would have allowed targets of recall campaigns to access the lists of recall petition signers and try to persuade them to remove their signatures. Neither bill would have impacted the 2021 recall election.

Newman's proposed law (Senate Bill 663) cleared the State Senate's Elections Committee on April 12, but he pulled the bill before it headed to the Judiciary Committee after it received fierce opposition from proponents of the 2021 recall over privacy and voter intimidation concerns. As of July 2021, Senator Allen's bill (Senate Constitutional Amendment 3) was on hold in the legislative "suspense file."

History

Although the recall petition was introduced in February 2020, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Newsom's response faced scrutiny by recall supporters and the news media. Many in favor of recalling Newsom have cited issues unrelated to the pandemic as reasons for their support.

Newsom under recall

Newsom presided over an unexpected surplus in the state's 2021 finances, attributable to the recovery in the stock market, the state's progressive income and capital gains tax structure, and $26 billion in federal aid, and announced a $100 billion post-pandemic spending proposal in May 2021 which would expand the eligibility for stimulus checks issued by the state to higher-wage earners with an additional payment to those with children, provide rental and utility assistance, and give funds to small businesses. While Newsom was required to return some of the surplus to taxpayers due to the Gann limit, which requires surplus funds to "be returned by a revision of tax rates or fee schedules", the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association said the law was being misapplied with the issuance of rebate checks to targeted constituencies rather than with the reduction of tax rates for all taxpayers. A report from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office, published shortly after the proposal was revealed, said that when considering spending that must go towards public schools, pay off debt, or be placed in the state's main reserve account, the surplus was actually $38 billion, not $75 billion as claimed by Newsom, that the proposal was being rushed since more time was needed to determine which solutions would be effective, and that the proposal was "shortsighted and inadvisable" since it requested $12 billion from the state's existing reserves in spite of the surplus. Newsom's Democratic predecessor Jerry Brown said the spending plans were "not sustainable" and said, "I would predict, certainly within two years, we're going to see fiscal stress." Proponents of Newsom's proposal said the high amount of spending was "historic" and would help the economy recover from the pandemic, while opponents said Newsom's proposal was crafted in response to the imminent recall election. According to state officials, stimulus payments will be issued starting in September 2021.

In May 2021, Kaiser Health News reported that throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Newsom was "routinely outsourcing life-or-death public health duties to his allies in the private sector" with lucrative no-bid government contracts. The report said the "vast majority" of awardees were Newsom supporters and donors who had collectively donated $113 million to his political campaigns (including to his campaign to fight the recall), charitable causes, or policy initiatives, since his entry into state-level politics in 2010.

In June 2021, The Sacramento Bee reported that the non-profit organization founded by Newsom's wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, had received over $800,000 in donations from companies that lobbied or did business with California state government, and paid her over $2.3 million since 2011 for leading the organization and producing documentary films through her production company, Girl's Club Entertainment. When questioned about his wife's non-profit, Newsom denied that there was any conflict of interest with the arrangement. In response to the report, several recall challengers called for a ban on donations to non-profit organizations of elected officials' family members from companies engaged in business with the state.

Partisanship

Newsom acknowledged the recall election when it became likely to occur, calling the effort "partisan, Republican" and recruited nationwide Democrats to help fundraise against it. State Democratic leaders warned members of their party against running in the recall election to avoid a potential split electorate, which some attribute to the 2003 recall of Governor Gray Davis, where Democratic Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante was defeated in his candidacy by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. A May 2021 UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found that Democratic voters overwhelmingly preferred having a prominent Democratic replacement candidate on the ballot in case the recall was successful, at odds with attempts by party leadership to prevent such a scenario.

Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger disputed the supposed partisan motives of the recall, comparing the 2021 effort to the successful 2003 recall and saying,

"It's pretty much the same atmosphere today as it was then. There was dissatisfaction, to the highest level. And it's the same with the momentum. Something that sets it off to a higher level, kind of the straw that breaks the camel's back ... like an explosion."

Democratic strategist Katie Merrill said that the chance for a successful recall in 2021 was low:

"Politically, we're a completely different state than we were in 2003. If you look at the statewide races, the Republican Party has effectively become a third party in California."

Newsom and his allies sought to connect the recall effort to anti-vaccine and anti-mask extremists, as well as supporters of former president Donald Trump, while recall proponents said that the recall was only about Newsom and his performance as governor, and claimed that around one-third of recall petition signatories were registered Democrats or Independents. As of April 30, 2021, nearly a year after the recall campaign was approved for petition circulation by the secretary of state, Trump had yet to personally comment on the recall effort.

Despite the CDC's mid-May guidance that it was not necessary for persons fully vaccinated against COVID-19 to wear masks in most indoor settings, Newsom's administration decided that California would continue its indoor mask mandate for another month, until June 15, 2021. Reception to the CDC's new guidance among public health experts had been mixed, with some favoring quick implementation and others favoring a delay, including Bob Wachter, chair of the UCSF Department of Medicine, who called the CDC's new guidance "premature." The delayed implementation was criticized by UCSF scientist Dr. Monica Gandhi, a leading COVID-19 expert, who said it had no scientific rationale, while potentially causing harm. Isaac Hale, a lecturer of political science at UC Davis, said partisan politics concerning the recall may have been a factor in the decision:

"One of [the] top political priorities Newsom has is keeping the Democratic base together, which is why they're really focused on arguing the recall is a partisan Republican endeavor. The biggest thing that could damage that narrative is if a prominent Democrat or progressive emerged as a candidate in the recall, like Cruz Bustamante did in 2003. The key to Newsom staying in power is keeping the Democratic base happy, consolidated and making sure the California Democratic Party is the party of Gavin Newsom, and Gavin Newsom only. It's smart politics since mask mandates are popular among California Democrats."

Jack Citrin, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, said changing the electoral calendar threatened to reinforce the public's cynicism about politicians using any means available to stay in power, and that they were "trying to create a situation that is most favorable for the partisan outcome that they favor." The changes were heavily criticized by Newsom's Republican opponents.

In August, recall proponents filed suit challenging language proposed by Newsom for the voter information handbook, alleging it falsely or misleading characterized the recall as a "power grab" by "Republicans and Trump supporters." On August 5, 2021, Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Laurie M. Earl ruled against the suit and allowed inclusion of the disputed language, saying, "There is nothing false or misleading about describing the recall effort's leaders as Trump supporters." Judge Earl wrote that while it may have been an exaggeration to describe the election as a "Republican recall," the rhetoric is "common to political debate" and "permissible."

Campaign

Newsom's opponents said he was being dishonest when in a March 16, 2021, interview with Jake Tapper of CNN, he said, "I've been living through Zoom school and all of the challenge related to it," since his children had been receiving in-person instruction at their private school since October 2020, unlike schoolchildren in many densely-populated and urban public school districts in California. Newsom made the comments while conducting a public outreach effort to address the all-but-certain recall. The COVID-19 pandemic in California led to widespread school closures, the emergence of distance learning, and student mental health and academic challenges, and by the summer of 2021, education became a prominent issue in the recall campaign. Republican candidates said the public K-12 school system failed to adequately serve students after teachers unions' demands led to extended shutdowns, and proposed a statewide voucher system, whereby parents could use their share of per-pupil state funding on the public, charter, or private school of their choice.

With the September recall election approaching, Vice President Kamala Harris, a longtime ally of Newsom and figure in California politics, told The San Francisco Chronicle on July 21, 2021, that she intended to campaign in support of the governor. On August 12, 2021, President Joe Biden issued a statement in support of Newsom, while White House sources said both Biden and Harris were considering taking a more active role in campaigning on behalf of Newsom.

On July 24, 2021, the California Republican Party's steering committee voted to allow the party to endorse a candidate in the recall election, if the candidate received at least 60 percent of delegate votes in an upcoming August 7 meeting. Some Republicans opposed the move out of concern that endorsing a single candidate would reduce Republican voter turnout. On August 7, the party voted to cancel the endorsement vote and issue no endorsement; prior to the cancellation of the endorsement vote, Republican delegates were set to choose an endorsee from the four candidates who each had received the support of at least 200 delegates, which were Larry Elder, Kevin Faulconer, Kevin Kiley, and Doug Ose.

August debates

The Richard Nixon Foundation is hosting two debates during the month of August 2021: the first on August 4, and the second on August 22. The first debate was a 90-minute televised event held at the Nixon Presidential Library in Yorba Linda, California. Six Republican candidates (Kevin Faulconer, Larry Elder, John Cox, Caitlyn Jenner, Kevin Kiley, and Doug Ose) were invited to participate, along with Governor Newsom. The Nixon Foundation announced that all the Republican candidates, with the exception of Jenner, had accepted the invitation, and Gov. Newsom had not responded. A day after the debate was announced with Elder as a participant, the Elder campaign issued a statement that he will not attend the debate. Hugh Hewitt, president of the Nixon Foundation, moderated the debate. The debate also included a panel consisting of Former National Security Advisor Robert C. O'Brien, along with KTTV news anchors Christine Devine and Elex Michaelson.

During a August 17 debate in Sacramento, John Cox was served with a subpoena by a San Diego County court for failure to pay debts from his 2018 gubernatorial campaign. Doug Ose had initially accepted the invitation to appear at the debate, but dropped out of the race the day of the debate, and therefore did not attend the debate. Larry Elder announced that he will not attend any debate that Newsom is not attending.

2021 California's gubernatorial recall election debates
No.	Date & Time	Host	Moderator	Link	Participants
Key:  P  Participant    A  Absent
					Kevin Faulconer	John Cox	Kevin Kiley	Doug Ose	Larry Elder	Caitlyn Jenner	Gavin Newsom
1	August 4, 2021	Nixon Presidential Library	Hugh Hewitt	Video	P	P	P	P	A	A	A
2	August 17, 2021	Sacramento Press Club	Vicki Gonzalez	Video	P	P	P	A	A	A	A
3	August 19, 2021	KRON-TV studios, San Francisco	Nikki Laurenzo & Frank Buckley	Video	P	P	P	A	A	A	A

Constitutional legal challenge

In August 2021, an essay by UC Berkeley School of Law Dean Erwin Chemerinsky and UC Berkeley Professor of Law and Economics Aaron Edlin appeared in The New York Times claiming California's recall process potentially violates the Constitution of the United States, since more people could vote to retain Newsom than for any particular candidate while still ousting him, thus violating "one person, one vote" legal precedent. Charles C. W. Cooke, writing in The National Review in the same month, criticized the rationale and timing of the essay's publication and said Chemerinsky had selectively taken issue with California's recall, in which a Democrat was targeted, by not bringing up the pivotal 2020-2021 United States Senate election in Georgia, which would also be invalid by his logic. Many experts have said the current recall process would probably survive legal challenges.

On August 13, 2021, two California voters filed a federal lawsuit against California's recall process, with formerly disbarred attorney Stephen Yagman and Joseph Reichmann as counsel, alleging violation of the U.S. Constitution's Equal Protection Clause. California Attorney General Rob Bonta said on August 16, 2021 that he was monitoring the lawsuit and legal debate; by then, millions of ballots had already been sent out.

Fundraising

A campaign supporting a challenger must adhere to the usual campaign finance limits for political candidates, while there is no dollar limit for a donor's contribution to the campaign of the defending incumbent (Gavin Newsom), nor for donations to groups advocating narrowly for the recall of the incumbent while not supporting any specific challenger. The maximum amount that a donor can give to a candidate (other than Gavin Newsom) is $32,400.

As of June 2021, the three biggest donors to Newsom's campaign against the recall were the California Association of Realtors, the California Democratic Party, and Reed Hastings. Prominent donors against the recall also include Steven Spielberg, George Soros, Jeffrey Katzenberg, Peter Chernin, J.J. Abrams and Katie McGrath, Laurene Powell Jobs, and Marissa Mayer. As of June 3, 2021, labor unions across the state donated $2 million to Newsom's campaign against the recall and union leaders, while saying their side was already favored by voters, promised a get-out-the-vote drive to "make sure we secure those votes and talk to our members to ensure that base" through a door-to-door canvassing effort.

While organizers of the recall campaign said the effort was driven by grassroots supporters angry over pandemic restrictions and Newsom's attendance at the French Laundry dinner that defied his own guidelines, over half of the $4 million raised by recall proponents by March 2021 originated from two dozen Republican groups, along with wealthy companies and individuals, including Douglas Leone, David O. Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya. Recall proponents said there was greater voter energy in favor of the recall and that despite having a small budget, an "unparalleled" volunteer base collected more than enough signatures for the "purposeful and organic" recall effort.

By May 26, 2021, $11.1 million and $4.6 million went to the pro-Newsom and pro-recall sides, respectively, with most funding for both sides originating from the same wealthy enclaves around the state. On August 4, 2021, the Los Angeles Times published updated campaign finance data for the upcoming recall election: Gavin Newsom's campaign was by far in the lead with $51 million raised, while $5.8 million had been raised by pro-recall committees unaffiliated with a candidate (most of the $5.8 million raised had already been spent during the signature-gathering phase). Among challengers who had raised over a million dollars, Jon Cox reported the most, with $7.6 million (largely self-funded), followed by Kevin Faulconer, who reported $3.4 million (raised over a six month period), and Larry Elder, who reported over $1 million (raised over a three week period).

Replacement candidates

To have been listed on the ballot as a replacement candidate, a candidate must have been a United States citizen and registered to vote in California, submitted signatures from 65 registered voters and paid a $4,194.94 filing fee (which could be waived with the submission of 7,000 signatures of registered voters). Candidates who had been convicted of a felony involving bribery or embezzlement of public money were not allowed to run.

The deadline for filing was July 16, 2021. 46 candidates qualified to appear on the recall ballot. Four of the 46 candidates qualified after a Sacramento County judge invalidated application of SB 27 on recall elections and ordered California's Secretary of State to add candidates who did not meet requirements for tax return disclosure. The list was certified on July 21, 2021.

Qualified candidates

! Candidate !! Party !!

Candidates by funds reported

John H. Cox	Republican	businessman and 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee	$6,961,043.50	$6,380,633.25	$588,897.49
Larry Elder	Republican	conservative talk show host and author	$4,469,029.65	$2,193,303.16	$2,275,726.49
Kevin Faulconer	Republican	former mayor of San Diego (2014–2020)	$1,926,260.87	$1,048,642.49	$939,639.24
Kevin Kiley	Republican	assemblyman for California's 6th State Assembly district (2016–present)	$834,493.11	$263,304.86	$572,419.82
Caitlyn Jenner	Republican	reality show personality, transgender rights activist and former Olympic athlete	$747,385.08	$910,233.73	$21,568.28
Kevin Paffrath	Democratic	YouTuber, real estate broker and landlord	$388,720.00	$398,304.67	$359,449.25
Ted Gaines	Republican	member of the California State Board of Equalization (2019–present), former senator from California's 1st State Senate district (2011–2019) and assemblyman for California's 4th State Assembly district (2006–2011)	$265,810.00	$116,835.47	$148,974.53
Jenny Rae Le Roux	Republican	business owner and management consultant	$223,845.57	$171,194.38	$91,628.56
Jeff Hewitt	Libertarian	Riverside County supervisor (2019–present) and former mayor of Calimesa (2015–2018)	$159,848.32	$126,311.97	$33,536.35
Sam L. Gallucci	Republican	pastor and software developer	$103,525.00	$23,088.80	$101,556.14
Anthony Trimino	Republican	business owner	$87,597.19	$38,528.51	$55,314.26
Leo S. Zacky	Republican	former vice president of Zacky Farms	$51,375.00	$8,058.35	$44,834.70
Sarah L. Stephens	Republican	pastor, motivational speaker and conservative activist	$20,882.00	$17,657.42	$4,784.31
Nickolas Wildstar	Republican	rapper and perennial candidate (including in the 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial elections, 2018 Fullerton City Council elections and 2020 Fresno mayoral election)	$16,795.49	$17,409.46	$0.00
Jacqueline McGowan	Democratic	cannabis advocate and business owner	$11,807.00	$10,889.13	$11,362.81
Diego Martinez	Republican	business owner	$10,363.00	$19,974.19	$2,537.91
File:James G Hanink (1).jpg James G. Hanink	No qualified party preference (American Solidarity)	former Loyola Marymount University philosophy professor	$3,363.89	$239.46	$3,289.31
Holly L. Baade	Democratic	spiritual teacher and coach
David Alexander Bramante	Republican	real estate agent, developer and podcast host
Angelyne	No party preference	singer, actress, model and candidate in the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election
Heather Collins	Green	hairstylist
John R. Drake	Democratic	college student
Rhonda Furin	Republican	non-profit president, retired special education teacher and candidate for the U.S. House in California's 45th congressional district in 2020
David Hillberg	Republican	actor and aircraft mechanic
Dan Kapelovitz	Green	criminal defense attorney and former Hustler editor
Kevin K. Kaul	No party preference	real estate developer and founder of the U.S. Global Business Forum
Chauncey "Slim" Killens	Republican	pastor and retired correctional officer
Patrick Kilpatrick Patrick Kilpatrick	Democratic	actor, screenwriter and producer
Steve Chavez Lodge	Republican	former police detective, business owner, and candidate for Anaheim City Council in 2012 and 2016
Michael Loebs	California National	San Francisco State University lecturer and chairman of the California National Party
David Lozano	Republican	former LA County deputy sheriff, attorney and candidate for California's 25th congressional district in the 2020 special election
Denis Lucey	No party preference	teacher
Jeremiah "Jeremy" Marciniak	No party preference	business owner
Daniel R. Mercuri	Republican	business owner and candidate for California's 25th congressional district in the 2020 special election and 2020 general election
David Moore	No qualified party preference (Socialist Equality)	teacher and Socialist Equality Party candidate in the 2018 United States Senate election in California
Robert C. Newman II	Republican	psychologist and perennial candidate (including in the 2003 recall and 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial elections)
Adam Papagan	No party preference	entertainer and tour guide
Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato	Democratic	business owner
Dennis Richter	No party preference	Walmart employee, candidate in the 2017 Los Angeles mayoral election and member of the Socialist Workers Party
Brandon M. Ross	Democratic	doctor and lawyer
Major Singh	No party preference	software engineer
Denver Stoner	Republican	Alpine County deputy sheriff
Joe M. Symmon	Republican	community volunteer and Democratic candidate in the 2010 California gubernatorial election
Joel A. Ventresca	Democratic	former executive committee member of the Service Employees International Union, retired airport analyst and perennial candidate
Daniel Watts	Democratic	free speech lawyer and Green candidate in the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election

Disqualified or withdrew

A total of 94 candidates started the process to run as a replacement candidate. With 46 qualifying candidates, 48 candidates had either not completed their paperwork or were disqualified.

The most notable candidates who did not qualify or withdrew included:

• Mary Carey, adult film actress and 2003 California gubernatorial recall election candidate (withdrew prior to qualifying)
• Louis J. Marinelli, California secession activist (withdrew after not qualifying)
• Doug Ose, former U.S. Representative for California's 3rd congressional district (1999–2005) and 2018 gubernatorial candidate (withdrew from the race on August 17, 2021 after suffering a heart attack two days prior, but his name will remain on the ballot)

Declined to run

The following individuals received press speculation as potential candidates but declined to run:

• Eleni Kounalakis, Lieutenant Governor of California (since 2019) and former United States Ambassador to Hungary (2010–2013)
• John Moorlach, Republican politician, senator from California's 37th State Senate district (2015–2020), former member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors (2006–2015), former Orange County treasurer (1995–2006)
• Tom Steyer, businessman and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
• Antonio Villaraigosa, former mayor of Los Angeles (2005–2013), former Speaker of the California State Assembly (1998–2000), and 2018 gubernatorial candidate

The following individuals had considered running, but ultimately did not file any paperwork for candidacy:

• Mike Cernovich, alt-right social media personality and conspiracy theorist
• Jane Fonda, actress and climate activist
• Richard Grenell, Republican politician, former United States Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020), former Acting Director of National Intelligence (2020), and former Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations (2019–2021)
• Chamath Palihapitiya, businessman and technology investor

Endorsements

On recall question

"Yes" (for recall)

Executive Branch Officials

• Richard Grenell, former United States Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020), former Acting Director of National Intelligence (2020) and former Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations (2019–2021) (Republican)

Governors

• Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas (1996–2007) and candidate for President of the United States in 2008 and 2016 (Republican)

U.S Representatives

• Ken Calvert, U.S. Representative from California's 42nd congressional district (1993–present) (Republican)
• Newt Gingrich, former U.S. Representative from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999), 50th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999), and candidate for President of the United States in 2012 (Republican)
• Mike Garcia, U.S. Representative from California's 25th congressional district (2020–present) (Republican)
• Darrell Issa, U.S. Representative from California's 50th congressional district (2021–present), California's 49th congressional district (2003–2019), and California's 48th congressional district (2001–2003); former Director of the USTDA (2019–2021) (Republican)
• Young Kim, U.S. Representative from California's 39th congressional district (2021–present) (Republican)
• Doug LaMalfa, U.S. Representative from California's 1st congressional district (2013–present) (Republican)
• Kevin McCarthy, U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district (2007–present) and House Minority Leader (2019–present) (Republican)
• Tom McClintock, U.S. Representative from California's 4th congressional district (2009–present) and candidate for governor in the 2003 recall election (Republican)
• Devin Nunes, U.S. Representative from California's 22nd congressional district (2003–present) (Republican)
• Jay Obernolte, U.S. Representative from California's 8th congressional district (2021–present) (Republican)
• Michelle Steel, U.S. Representative from California's 48th congressional district (2021–present) (Republican)
• David Valadao, U.S. Representative from California's 21st congressional district (2013–2019; 2021–present) (Republican)

Individuals

• David O. Sacks, technology industry executive

Organizations

• California Republican Party
• Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
• Libertarian Party of California

Newspapers and other media

• The Bakersfield Californian Editorial Board
• Southern California News Group

"No" (against recall)

Executive Branch Officials

• Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present), 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017), and former U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009) (Democrat)
• Kamala Harris, 49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present) and former U.S. Senator from California (2017–2021) (Democrat)
• Charles Rivkin, former Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs (2014-2017), former United States Ambassador to France (2009–2013), former United States Ambassador to Monaco (2009-2013), Chairman and CEO of the Motion Picture Association (2017-present) (Democrat)

U.S. Senators

• Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2020 (Democrat)
• Barbara Boxer, former U.S. Senator from California (1993–2017) (Democrat)
• Alex Padilla, U.S. Senator from California (2021–present) and former California Secretary of State (2015–2021) (Democrat)
• Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2016 and 2020 (Independent)
• Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2020 (Democrat)

U.S Representatives

• John Burton, former U.S. Representative from California's 5th congressional district (1975–1983) (Democrat)
• Nancy Pelosi, U.S. Representative from California's 12th congressional district (1987–present) and 52nd Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2007–2011; 2019–present) (Democrat)
• Katie Porter, U.S. Representative from California's 45th congressional district (2019–present) (Democrat)
• Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative from California's 17th congressional district (2017–present) (Democrat)
• Zoe Lofgren, U.S. Representative from California's 19th congressional district (2013–present) (Democrat)

State officeholders

• Stacey Abrams, former Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives (2011–2017), nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018, founder of Fair Fight Action (Democrat)
• Rob Bonta, California Attorney General (2021–present) and former state assemblymember from the 18th district (2012–2021) (Democrat)
• Jerry Brown, former governor of California (1975–1983; 2011–2019) (Democrat)
• David Chiu, state assemblymember from the 17th district (2014–present) and former president of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors (2009–2014) (Democrat)
• Laura Friedman, state assemblymember from the 43rd district (2016–present) (Democrat)
• Lorena Gonzalez, state assemblymember from the 80th district (2013–present) (Democrat)
• María Elena Durazo, state senator from the 24th district (2018–present) (Democrat)
• Eleni Kounalakis, Lieutenant Governor of California (2019–present) and former United States Ambassador to Hungary (2010–2013) (Democrat)
• Fiona Ma, California State Treasurer (2019–present), former member of the California Board of Equalization (2015–2019), and former state assemblymember from the 12th district (2006–2012) (Democrat)
• Richard Pan, state senator from the 6th district (2014–present) (Democrat)
• Robert Rivas, state assemblymember from the 30th district (2018–present) (Democrat)
• Rudy Salas, state assemblymember from the 32nd district (2012–present) (Democrat)
• Antonio Villaraigosa, former Mayor of Los Angeles (2005–2013), former Speaker of the California State Assembly (1998–2000), and 2018 gubernatorial candidate (Democrat)
• Betty Yee, California State Controller (2015–present) and former member of the California Board of Equalization (2004–2015) (Democrat)

Local officials

• Todd Gloria, Mayor of San Diego (2020–present) and former state assemblymember from the 78th district (2016–2020) (Democrat)
• Sam Liccardo, Mayor of San Jose (2015–present) (Democrat)

Individuals

• Byron Allen, Entertainment industry executive
• Mary Carey, adult film actress, candidate for Governor of California in the 2003 recall election and 2021 recall election
• Jon Feltheimer, CEO of Lionsgate Entertainment
• Reed Hastings, Co-Founder and CEO of Netflix
• Alan F. Horn, Chief creative officer of Walt Disney Studios
• George Lopez, actor and comedian
• Paula Poundstone, actress, author and comedian
• Rob Reiner, actor, filmmaker and activist
• Ann Sarnoff, Chairman and CEO of Warner Bros.
• Steven Spielberg, director, producer and screenwriter
• George Takei, actor and activist
• Dana Walden, Co-Chairman of Walt Disney Television

Newspapers and other media

• Bay Area Reporter Editorial Board
• Los Angeles Times Editorial Board
• McClatchy California Editorial Boards
• The Mercury News and East Bay Times Editorial Boards
• Napa Valley Register Editorial Board
• The San Diego Union-Tribune Editorial Board
• San Francisco Chronicle Editorial Board

Organizations

• California Democratic Party
• Democratic Governors Association
• Equality California
• International Association of Fire Fighters
• Motion Picture Association
• National Union of Healthcare Workers
• Peace and Freedom Party
• Service Employees International Union California
• Socialist Equality Party
• United Food and Commercial Workers
• Valley Industry & Commerce Association

For candidates

Larry Elder (R)

State legislators

• Laurie Davies, state assemblymember from the 73rd district (2020–present)
• Shannon Grove, state senator from the 16th district (2018–present) and former Minority Leader of the California Senate (2019–2021)
• Dov Hikind, state assemblymember from New York's 48th Assembly District (1983-2018) (Democrat)
• Gloria Romero, Majority Leader of the California Senate (2001-2008) and state senator from the 24th district (2001-2010) (Democrat)

Local officials

• Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City (1994–2001) and former United States Associate Attorney General (1981–1983)

Individuals

• Chuck Norris, martial artist, actor, film producer, and screenwriter
• Clint Eastwood, actor, film director, composer, and producer (Libertarian)

Organizations

• American Independent Party
• California College Republicans
• California Republican Assembly

Newspapers and other media

• Southern California News Group

Kevin Faulconer (R)

U.S. Representatives

• Darrell Issa, U.S. Representative from California's 50th congressional district (2021–present), California's 49th congressional district (2003–2019), and California's 48th congressional district (2001–2003); former Director of the USTDA (2019–2021)

State legislators

• Patricia Bates, state senator from the 36th district (2014–present) and former Minority Leader of the California Senate (2017–2019)
• Frank Bigelow, state assemblymember from the 5th district (2012–present)
• Jordan Cunningham, state assemblymember from the 35th district (2016–present)
• Megan Dahle, state assemblymember from the 1st district (2019–present)
• Heath Flora, state assemblymember from the 12th district (2016–present)
• Brian Jones, state senator from the 38th district (2018–present)
• Tom Lackey, state assemblymember from the 36th district (2014–present)
• Devon Mathis, state assemblymember from the 26th district (2014–present)
• Melissa Melendez, state senator from the 28th district (2020–present)
• Janet Nguyen, state assemblymember from the 72nd district (2020–present)
• Jim Nielsen, state senator from the 4th district (2013–present)
• Thurston Smith, state assemblymember from the 33rd district (2020–present)
• Randy Voepel, state assemblymember from the 71st district (2016–present)
• Marie Waldron, state assemblymember from the 75th district (2012–present) and Minority Leader of the California Assembly (2018–present)
• Scott Wilk, state senator from the 21st district (2016–present) and Minority Leader of the California Senate (2021–present)

Newspapers and other media

• The Bakersfield Californian Editorial Board
• Los Angeles Times Editorial Board

James Hanink (ASP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")

Organizations

• American Solidarity Party

Jeff Hewitt (L)

Organizations

• Libertarian Party of California

Caitlyn Jenner (R)

Executive Branch officials

• Ari Fleischer, former White House Press Secretary (2001–2003)

Individuals

• Brad Parscale, campaign manager for Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign

Dan Kapelovitz (G)

Local officials

• Mike Feinstein, former mayor of Santa Monica (2000–2002) and candidate for California Secretary of State in 2018

Kevin Kiley (R)

U.S. Representatives

• Doug Ose, former U.S. Representative for California's 3rd congressional district (1999–2005), candidate for governor in 2018 and 2021

Individuals

• Joel Anderson, member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors (2021–present) and former state senator from the 38th district (2010–2018)
• Orrin Heatlie, leader of the effort that brought about the recall election and retired county sheriff's sergeant

Newspapers and other media

• RedState, conservative blog

Michael Loebs (CNP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")

Organizations

• California National Party

David Moore (SEP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")

Organizations

• Socialist Equality Party

Dennis Richter (SWP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")

Organizations

• Socialist Workers Party

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	July 9, 2021
Inside Elections	Likely D	August 16, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	July 28, 2021

Polling

Newsom recall

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Yes on recall	No on recall	Undecided	Margin
Real Clear Politics	September 6–13, 2021	September 14, 2021	41.8%	56.3%	1.9%	No on recall +14.5
FiveThirtyEight	August 27 – September 14, 2021	September 14, 2021	41.5%	57.3%	1.2%	No on recall +15.8
Average			41.7%	56.8%	1.5%	No on recall +15.1
Result			38.12%	61.88%	–	No on recall +23.76

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Yes on recall	No on recall	Undecided
2021 CA gubernatorial election	September 14, 2021	12,892,578	–	38.12%	61.88%	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	September 11–13, 2021	1,082 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	53%	2%
Momentive	August 31 – September 13, 2021	3,985 (LV)	± 1.6%	41%	55%	4%
Emerson College	September 10–11, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	60%	1%
Data for Progress (D)	September 2–10, 2021	2,464 (LV)	± 2.0%	43%	57%	–
SurveyUSA	September 7–8, 2021	930 (LV)	± 4.2%	41%	54%	5%
Suffolk University	September 6–7, 2021	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	41%	58%	1%
Berkeley IGS	August 30 – September 6, 2021	7,917 (LV)	± 2.0%	38%	60%	1%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	September 2–4, 2021	1,079 (LV)	± 3.0%	43%	53%	4%
YouGov	August 30 – September 1, 2021	1,618 (LV)	± 3.0%	43%	57%	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	August 26–29, 2021	1,088 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	52%	4%
Public Policy Institute of California	August 20–29, 2021	1,080 (LV)	± 4.5%	39%	58%	3%
SurveyUSA	August 26–28, 2021	816 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	51%	6%
Gravis Marketing	August 25–27, 2021	729 (LV)	± 3.6%	45%	50%	5%
Targoz Market Research	August 23–25, 2021	787 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	52%	6%
Change Research (D)	August 22–25, 2021	782 (LV)	± 3.7%	42%	57%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	August 20–22, 2021	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	41%	48%	11%
		964 (LV)	± 3.2%	43%	51%	7%
YouGov	August 6–12, 2021	1,585 (RV)	± 3.4%	46%	54%	–
		1,534 (LV)	± 3.8%	48%	52%	–
SurveyUSA	August 2–4, 2021	613 (LV)	± 5.0%	51%	40%	9%
Emerson College	July 30 – August 1, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	6%
Core Decision Analytics	July 27–29, 2021	804 (RV)	± 3.5%	41%	52%	7%
		~728 (LV)	± 3.6%	44%	51%	5%
Berkeley IGS	July 18–24, 2021	5,795 (RV)	± 2.0%	36%	51%	13%
		3,266 (LV)	± 2.5%	47%	50%	3%
Emerson College	July 19–20, 2021	1,085 (RV)	± 2.9%	43%	48%	9%
Change Research (D)	June 11–16, 2021	1,085 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	54%	6%
Moore Information Group (R)	June 1–3, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	50%	6%
		682 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	46%	5%
Tulchin Research (D)	May 21–30, 2021	1,500 (RV)	± 2.5%	37%	50%	13%
		1,168 (LV)	± 2.9%	38%	52%	9%
Public Policy Institute of California	May 9–18, 2021	1,074 (LV)	± 4.2%	40%	57%	3%
Berkeley IGS	April 29 – May 5, 2021	10,289 (RV)	± 2.0%	36%	49%	15%
		7,943 (LV)	± 2.3%	42%	50%	8%
SurveyUSA	April 30 – May 2, 2021	642 (RV)	± 5.3%	36%	47%	17%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	April 15–19, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	45%	10%
Public Policy Institute of California	March 14–23, 2021	1,174 (LV)	± 3.9%	40%	56%	5%
Probolsky Research (R)	March 16–19, 2021	900 (RV)	± 3.3%	40%	46%	14%
		900 (LV)	± 3.3%	35%	53%	13%
Emerson College	March 12–14, 2021	1,045 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	42%	20%
WPA Intelligence (R)	February 12–14, 2021	645 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	43%	10%
Berkeley IGS	January 23–29, 2021	10,357 (RV)	± 2.0%	36%	45%	20%
		7,980 (LV)	± 2.4%	36%	49%	15%
Remington Research (R)	March 17–18, 2019	1,303 (LV)	± 2.7%	31%	52%	17%

Replacement candidates

The table below contains all candidates who had polled at or above 2% since the filing deadline for the recall, had raised at least $100,000 (excluding loans and including at least $5,000 in the most recent filing period), were a current or former elected official, or were otherwise considered notable in their own right. The graphical summary includes all candidates who met at least one of those criteria and had appeared in at least four separate publicly released polls.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Elder (R)	Paffrath (D)	Faulconer (R)	Cox (R)	Kiley (R)	Jenner (R)	Other/Undecided	Margin
Real Clear Politics	August 20 – Sep 13, 2021	Sep 13, 2021	32.4%	7.8%	5.3%	4.0%	3.1%	1.3%	46.1%	Elder +24.6
FiveThirtyEight	July 18 – Sep 13, 2021	Sep 13, 2021	29.7%	6.1%	5.1%	4.5%	3.0%	1.0%	50.6%	Elder +23.6
Average			31.1%	7.0%	5.2%	4.3%	3.1%	1.2%	48.4%	Elder +24.1
Result			48.4%	9.6%	8.0%	4.1%	3.5%	1.0%	25.4%	Elder +38.8

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	(I) Angelyne	(D) Holly Baade	(R) John Cox	(D) John Drake	(R) Larry Elder	(R) Kevin Faulconer	(R) Ted Gaines	(L) Jeff Hewitt	(R) Caitlyn Jenner	(G) Dan Kapelovitz	(R) Kevin Kiley	(D) Patrick Kilpatrick	(D) Jacqueline McGowan	(R) Doug Ose	(D) Kevin Paffrath	(D) Armando Perez-Serrato	(D) Brandon Ross	(D) Joel Ventresca	(D) Daniel Watts	Other	Undecided	None
2021 CA gubernatorial election	Sep 14, 2021	7,361,568	–	0.5%	1.3%	4.1%	0.9%	48.4%	8.0%	0.7%	0.7%	1.0%	0.9%	3.5%	1.2%	2.9%	0.4%	9.6%	1.2%	5.3%	2.5%	2.3%	4.6%	–	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	Sep 11–13, 2021	1,082 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	3%	1%	41%	4%	–	–	1%	–	4%	–	4%	–	10%	–	1%	–	–	9%	23%	–
Emerson College	Sep 10–11, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	3%	6%	30%	4%	–	–	2%	–	4%	–	3%	1%	6%	–	–	–	–	3%	6%	34%
Data for Progress (D)	Sep 2–10, 2021	2,557 (LV)	± 2.0%	–	2%	7%	–	22%	4%	–	–	1%	–	3%	–	4%	–	6%	–	5%	–	3%	5%	7%	29%
SurveyUSA	Sep 7–8, 2021	597 (LV)	± 5.5%	–	4%	8%	4%	29%	6%	–	–	2%	–	3%	2%	4%	–	9%	1%	3%	2%	2%	6%	13%	–
Suffolk University	Sep 6–7, 2021	233 (LV)	± 6.4%	0%	0%	4%	1%	39%	5%	1%	1%	1%	0%	2%	–	2%	0%	5%	0%	2%	1%	–	–	7%	–
Berkeley IGS	Aug 30 – Sep 6, 2021	4,707 (LV)	± 2.6%	–	1%	4%	1%	38%	8%	–	1%	1%	1%	4%	1%	2%	–	10%	1%	3%	2%	1%	8%	16%	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	Sep 2–4, 2021	1,079 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	3%	–	32%	4%	–	–	1%	–	4%	–	3%	–	13%	–	–	–	–	11%	29%	–
YouGov	Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2021	1,618 (LV)	± 3.0%	1%	1%	3%	1%	24%	5%	0%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	1%	7%	1%	1%	1%	1%	4%	–	39%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	Aug 26–29, 2021	1,088 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	4%	–	29%	4%	–	–	1%	–	–	–	–	0%	22%	–	–	–	–	9%	30%	–
Public Policy Institute of California	Aug 20–29, 2021	1,080 (LV)	± 4.5%	–	–	3%	–	26%	5%	–	–	1%	–	3%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	14%	24%	25%
SurveyUSA	Aug 26–28, 2021	515 (LV)	± 5.2%	–	5%	6%	2%	27%	5%	–	–	2%	–	5%	–	5%	–	6%	3%	5%	2%	–	12%	14%	–
Gravis Marketing	Aug 25–27, 2021	729 (LV)	± 3.6%	–	–	4%	–	22%	6%	1%	2%	3%	3%	4%	–	–	–	18%	–	–	–	–	16%	21%	–
Targoz Market Research	Aug 23–25, 2021	787 (LV)	± 3.5%	–	–	13%	–	12%	7%	–	–	3%	–	3%	–	–	2%	13%	–	–	–	–	4%	20%	23%
Change Research (D)	Aug 22–25, 2021	782 (LV)	± 3.7%	–	2%	2%	–	27%	3%	–	–	1%	–	4%	–	5%	1%	6%	–	3%	–	3%	7%	15%	22%
YouGov	Aug 6–12, 2021	1,534 (LV)	± 3.8%	–	–	3%	–	23%	3%	2%	1%	2%	–	3%	–	–	2%	13%	–	–	–	–	5%	25%	20%
SurveyUSA	Aug 2–4, 2021	545 (LV)	± 5.4%	–	–	10%	–	23%	5%	–	–	4%	–	3%	–	–	4%	27%	–	–	–	–	5%	20%	–
Emerson College	Jul 30 – Aug 1, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	7%	–	23%	4%	–	–	7%	–	5%	–	–	0%	1%	–	–	–	–	14%	40%	–
Core Decision Analytics	Jul 27–29, 2021	803 (RV)	± 3.5%	1%	1%	4%	0%	9%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	3%	1%	2%	1%	2%	0%	1%	9%	34%	22%
		~728 (LV)	± 3.6%	1%	1%	4%	0%	10%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	3%	1%	3%	1%	2%	0%	1%	8%	32%	22%
Berkeley IGS	Jul 18–24, 2021	5,795 (RV)	± 2.0%	1%	2%	7%	1%	12%	8%	0%	1%	2%	1%	3%	0%	2%	1%	5%	–	2%	1%	2%	1%	44%	–
		3,266 (LV)	± 2.5%	0%	1%	10%	1%	18%	10%	0%	1%	3%	1%	5%	0%	1%	1%	3%	–	1%	0%	2%	1%	40%	–
Emerson College	Jul 19–20, 2021	1,085 (RV)	± 2.9%	–	–	6%	–	16%	6%	–	–	4%	–	4%	–	–	0%	2%	–	–	–	–	8%	53%	–
Moore Information Group (R)	Jun 1–3, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	–	–	22%	–	–	11%	–	–	6%	–	–	–	–	4%	–	–	–	–	–	18%	39%	–
		682 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	–	24%	–	–	12%	–	–	6%	–	–	–	–	4%	–	–	–	–	–	17%	37%	–
SurveyUSA	Apr 30 – May 2, 2021	642 (RV)	± 5.3%	–	–	9%	–	–	3%	–	–	5%	–	–	–	–	2%	–	–	–	–	–	17%	26%	38%

Hypothetical polling

Full-field ballot including potential Democratic candidates

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Cox (R)	Kevin de León (D)	Kevin Faulconer (R)	Caitlyn Jenner (R)	Doug Ose (R)	Tom Steyer (D)	Antonio Villaraigosa (D)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)	Jun 1–3, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	16%	4%	7%	4%	2%	5%	9%	14%	38%
		682 (LV)	± 4.0%	18%	4%	8%	4%	2%	5%	8%	13%	37%

Antonio Villaraigosa vs. Kevin Faulconer

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Antonio Villaraigosa (D)	Kevin Faulconer (R)	Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)	Feb 12–14, 2021	645 (LV)	± 3.9%	28%	31%	41%

See also

• 1921 North Dakota gubernatorial recall election
• 2003 California gubernatorial recall election
• 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election
• 2022 California gubernatorial election

Further reading

• Siders, David (March 19, 2021), "The Three Men Who Could Take Down Gavin Newsom", Politico, retrieved March 20, 2021.

External links

• California recall procedures guide
• Complete list of recall election attempts in California – Secretary of State of California
• Candidates for the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election, official listing

Anti-recall campaign

• Stop the Republican Recall, the official retention campaign for Gavin Newsom

Official candidate campaign websites

• Angelyne (I) for Governor
• David Bramante (R) for Governor
• John Cox (R) for Governor
• John Drake (D) for Governor
• Larry Elder (R) for Governor
• Kevin Faulconer (R) for Governor
• Rhonda Furin (R) for Governor
• Ted Gaines (R) for Governor
• Sam Gallucci (R) for Governor
• James Hanink (I) for Governor
• Jeff Hewitt (L) for Governor
• Caitlyn Jenner (R) for Governor
• Dan Kapelovitz (G) for Governor
• Kevin Kaul (I) for Governor
• Kevin Kiley (R) for Governor
• Jenny Rae Le Roux (R) for Governor
• Steve Lodge (R) for Governor
• Michael Loebs (I) for Governor
• David Lozano (R) for Governor
• Diego Martinez (R) for Governor
• Daniel Mercuri (R) for Governor
• Doug Ose (R) for Governor
• Kevin Paffrath (D) for Governor
• Adam Papagan (I) for Governor
• Armando Perez-Serrato (D) for Governor
• Brandon Ross (D) for Governor
• Major Singh (I) for Governor
• Sarah Stephens (R) for Governor
• Joe Symmon (R) for Governor
• Anthony Trimino (R) for Governor
• Joel Ventresca (D) for Governor
• Daniel Watts (D) for Governor
• Nickolas Wildstar (R) for Governor
• Leo Zacky (R) for Governor