2020 Iowa caucuses

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The 2020 Iowa caucuses are expected to be the first votes of that year's U.S. presidential cycle and are currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2020.[1]

Background[edit]

The Iowa caucuses first gained national attention in the 1970s when George McGovern leveraged the momentum from winning second place in the Democratic caucus as an underdog to winning the Democratic nomination in the 1972 election.[2] Future president Jimmy Carter was also able to use his win in the Iowa caucus of 1976 to propel himself to the presidency. These wins proved to be early momentum for the candidates and led to national attention on the caucuses themselves.[3]

Procedure[edit]

Historically, in the Democratic caucuses, Iowans divide into groups based on which candidate they support. Then, the voters are given a chance to switch groups, if they desire to do so. Once the groups are finalized, the chairman will decide how many representatives each group is entitled to.[4]

In the Republican caucuses, there is a straw poll which indicates the group's preferences for delegates. With an incumbent President running for reelection, the Republican caucuses will not have a straw poll and delegates will just be appointed by state party officials.[citation needed]

Candidates[edit]

As of January 2019, only five candidates have officially announced intentions to run in 2020. Several prominent Democrats have visited Iowa from 2016 to 2019, potentially indicating their intention to run. Included among them are Senator Bernie Sanders, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Representative Tim Ryan.[5][6]

In addition to having announced that they are running for president in 2020 or having formed exploratory committees for the 2020 presidential election, the candidates in this section have held public office or have been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.

  Formed exploratory committee but has not officially declared candidacy
Name Born Experience State Campaign
Announcement date
Ref.
Cory Booker, official portrait, 114th Congress.jpg
Cory Booker
April 27, 1969
(age 49)
Washington, D.C.
U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present)
Mayor of Newark (2006–2013)
Flag-map of New Jersey.svg
New Jersey
Cory Booker 2020 Logo.png
(CampaignWebsite)
Campaign: February 1, 2019
FEC Filing
[7]
Pete Buttigieg Official Portrait (cropped).jpg
Pete Buttigieg
January 19, 1982
(age 37)
South Bend, Indiana
Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–present) Flag map of Indiana.svg
Indiana
Pete Buttigieg 2020 logo.svg
(CampaignWebsite)
Exploratory committee:
January 23, 2019

[8]
Julián Castro's Official HUD Portrait (cropped).jpg
Julian Castro
September 16, 1974
(age 44)
San Antonio, Texas
U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014–2017)
Mayor of San Antonio, Texas (2009–2014)
Flag-map of Texas.svg
Texas
Julian2020version1logo.png
(CampaignWebsite)
Exploratory committee:
December 12, 2018
Campaign: January 12, 2019

FEC filing
[9]
John Delaney 113th Congress official photo (cropped) 2.jpg
John Delaney
April 16, 1963
(age 55)
Wood-Ridge, New Jersey
U.S. Representative from MD-06 (2013–2019) Flag-map of Maryland.svg
Maryland
John Delaney 2020 logo.svg
(CampaignWebsite)
Campaign: July 28, 2017
FEC filing
[10]
Tulsi Gabbard, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 3).jpg
Tulsi Gabbard
April 12, 1981
(age 37)
Leloaloa, American Samoa
U.S. Representative from HI-02 (2013–present) Flag-map of Hawaii.svg
Hawaii
Tulsi Gabbard 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg
(CampaignWebsite)
Campaign: January 11, 2019
FEC filing
[11][12]
Kirsten Gillibrand, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped).jpg
Kirsten Gillibrand
December 9, 1966
(age 52)
Albany, New York
U.S. Senator from New York (2009–present)
U.S. Representative from NY-20 (2007–2009)
Flag-map of New York.svg
New York
Gillibrand 2020.png
(CampaignWebsite)
Exploratory committee:
January 15, 2019

FEC filing
[13]
Kamala Harris official photo (cropped).jpg
Kamala Harris
October 20, 1964
(age 54)
Oakland, California
U.S. Senator from California (2017–present) Flag-map of California.svg
California
Kamala Harris 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg
(CampaignWebsite)
Campaign: January 21, 2019
FEC filing
[14]
Amy Klobuchar, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Amy Klobuchar
May 25, 1960
(age 58)
Plymouth, Minnesota
U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007–present) Flag map of Minnesota.svg
Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg
(CampaignWebsite)
Campaign: February 10, 2019
FEC filing
[15]
Elizabeth Warren, official portrait, 114th Congress (cropped)(2).jpg
Elizabeth Warren
June 22, 1949
(age 69)
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present) Flag-map of Massachusetts.svg
Massachusetts
Warren2020.png
(CampaignWebsite)
Exploratory committee:
December 31, 2018
Campaign: February 9, 2019

FEC filing
[16][17]

Forums and debates[edit]

Peolple's Action network, in partnership with Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement Action Fund, Rights & Democracy,[18] has scheduled an event for September 21 in Des Moines. Other groups[specify] have also indicated that they will sponsor such events.[citation needed]

Polling[edit]

Democratic caucus[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Cory
Booker
Sherrod
Brown
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Beto
O'Rourke
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2019 558 ± 3.6% 25% 4% 17% 5% 4% 10% 11% 1%[a] 25%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 260 ± 6.0% 29% 4% 4% 18% 3% 6% 15% 11% 11%[b]
Change Research Dec 13–17, 2018 1,291 20% 1% 4% 2% 7% 5% 19% 20% 7% 15%[c]
Selzer & Company Dec 10–13, 2018 455 ± 4.6% 32% 3% 4% 1% 5% 3% 11% 19% 8% 3%[d] 6%
David Binder Research (D)[A] Dec 10–11, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 30% 2% 6% 3% 7% 10% 11% 13% 9% 3%[e] 6%
David Binder Research (D)[A] Sep 20–23, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 37% 8% 10% 12% 16% 6%[f] 9%
2017
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cory
Booker
Andrew
Cuomo
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Martin
O'Malley
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] Mar 3–6, 2017 1,062 17% 8% 3% 11% 18% 12%[g] 32%

Republican caucus[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
Kasich
Donald
Trump
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 280 10% 90%

Notes[edit]

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America (a group founded by Patty Judge, Democratic nominee in the 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa and former Lieutenant Governor of Iowa)
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by O'Say Can You See PAC, the PAC supporting O'Malley
Additional candidates
  1. ^ Gillibrand with 1%
  2. ^ Castro with 2%; Delaney and Gillibrand with 1%; Buttigieg, Gabbard, and Yang with 0%; others with 8%
  3. ^ Kennedy with 5%; Clinton with 4%; Castro, Cuomo, Delaney, Gillibrand, Kerry, and Swalwell with 1%; Holder, McAuliffe, Schultz, and Steyer with 0%
  4. ^ Castro, Delaney, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Bullock, Garcetti, Gillibrand, Holder, Inslee, Steyer, Swalwell, and Yang with <1%
  5. ^ Kerry with 2%; Delaney with 1%; Garcetti with 0%; others with <1%
  6. ^ Gillibrand and Holder with 2%; Avenatti and Delaney with 1%; Bullock, Garcetti, Landrieu, and Patrick with <1%; others with 1%
  7. ^ Julian Castro and Sheryl Sandberg with 4%; Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%; Howard Schultz with 1%

References[edit]

  1. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 25 August 2018.
  2. ^ "Iowa Caucus History: George McGovern's Early Momentum in 1972". IPTV. 2016-11-29. Retrieved 2018-01-11.
  3. ^ "History May Not Help Figure Out Iowa". NPR.org. Retrieved 2018-01-11.
  4. ^ "Iowa Caucus: Iowa Caucus – History, Candidate Profiles, Campaign Events and Caucus News". 2007-12-22. Retrieved 2018-01-12.
  5. ^ Swanson, Ian (2018-01-08). "Dem hopefuls flock to Iowa". TheHill. Retrieved 2018-01-12.
  6. ^ Scherer, Michael (2018-05-12). "In wide-open 2020 presidential field, Democrats are road-testing messages — and trying to redefine their party". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2018-06-28.
  7. ^ Korecki, Natasha (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker launches bid for president". Politico. Retrieved February 1, 2019.
  8. ^ Verhovek, John (January 23, 2019). "South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg launches presidential exploratory committee, could be nation's first openly gay nominee". ABC News. Retrieved January 23, 2019.
  9. ^ J. Weber, Paul (January 12, 2019). "Former Obama housing chief Julian Castro joins 2020 campaign". Associated Press. Retrieved January 12, 2019.
  10. ^ Delaney, John (July 28, 2017). "John Delaney: Why I'm running for president". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 28, 2017.
  11. ^ Kelly, Caroline (January 12, 2019). "Tulsi Gabbard says she will run for president in 2020". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2019.
  12. ^ Strauss, Daniel. "Tulsi Gabbard to run for president". POLITICO.
  13. ^ Block, Valerie (January 15, 2019). "Kirsten Gillibrand: 'I'm going to run' for president in 2020". CNBC.
  14. ^ Kelsey, Adam (January 21, 2019). "Sen. Kamala Harris announces she will run for president in 2020". ABC News.
  15. ^ Golshan, Tara. "Sen. Amy Klobuchar has won every one of her elections by huge margins. Now she's running for president". Vox.
  16. ^ Lee, MJ; Krieg, Gregory (December 31, 2018). "Elizabeth Warren launches exploratory committee ahead of likely 2020 presidential run". CNN. Retrieved December 31, 2018.
  17. ^ McCarthy, Tom (February 9, 2019). "Senator Elizabeth Warren officially launches 2020 presidential campaign". The Guardian. Retrieved February 9, 2019.
  18. ^ https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/11/progressive-groups-plan-forum-gauntlet-for-2020-democrats-1057950