2020 United States presidential election in Iowa
(Redirected from 2020 Iowa caucuses)
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| Elections in Iowa |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Trump won the state 53.1% to Biden's 44.9%. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in Ohio, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend from a Midwestern swing state toward the GOP column, the same trend as neighboring Missouri starting in 2008. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, the exception being George W. Bush's narrow plurality win in 2004. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. Even though Biden contested the state,[3] Trump ended up carrying it by only a slightly reduced margin of 8.2% even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2.4%, meaning that the state voted even further to the right of the national average than it did in 2016.
This marked the first time since 2000 that the state voted for the national loser, and the first since 1988 that it voted for the loser of the popular and electoral vote. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's margins in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter of which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha metropolitan area), an electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Trump improved on his 2016 performance in populist northeast and south Iowa and became the first Republican to win Iowa in back-to-back elections since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984. Biden also became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Iowa since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Iowa is one of three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Florida. This is also the first time since 2004 that Iowa voted for a different candidate than neighboring Wisconsin.
Caucuses
[edit]The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[4]
Republican caucuses
[edit]Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[5]
Counties won by these popular vote results
Map legend
- Trump—100%
- Trump—≥95%
- Trump—90–95%
- Trump—85–90%
Congressional districts won by these popular vote results
Map legend
- Trump—≥95%
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 31,421 | 97.14 | 39 |
| Bill Weld | 425 | 1.31 | 1 |
| Joe Walsh | 348 | 1.08 | 0 |
| Other | 151 | 0.47 | 0 |
| Total | 32,345 | 100% | 40 |
Democratic caucuses
[edit]After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[8]
| Candidate | Initial alignment |
Final alignment[a] |
State delegate equivalents[b] |
Pledged national convention delegates[12][c] | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Number | % | ||
| Pete Buttigieg | 37,572 | 21.31 | 43,209 | 25.08 | 562.95 | 26.17 | [d]14 |
| Bernie Sanders | 43,581 | 24.71 | 45,652 | 26.50 | 562.02 | 26.13 | [e]12 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 32,589 | 18.48 | 34,909 | 20.26 | 388.44 | 18.06 | [f]8 |
| Joe Biden | 26,291 | 14.91 | 23,605 | 13.70 | 340.32 | 15.82 | [g]6 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 22,454 | 12.73 | 21,100 | 12.25 | 263.87 | 12.27 | 1 |
| Andrew Yang | 8,914 | 5.05 | 1,758 | 1.02 | 21.86 | 1.02 | |
| Tom Steyer | 3,061 | 1.74 | 413 | 0.24 | 6.62 | 0.31 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)[h] | 212 | 0.12 | 16 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.01 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 341 | 0.19 | 16 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.01 | |
| Michael Bennet | 164 | 0.09 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Deval Patrick | 9 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Other | 155 | 0.09 | 198 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.03 | |
| Uncommitted | 1,009 | 0.57 | 1,420 | 0.82 | 3.73 | 0.17 | |
| Total[i] | 176,352 | 100% | 172,300 | 100% | 2,150.83 | 100% | 41 |
Libertarian caucuses
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 Election results by county
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| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hornberger | 133 | 47.52% |
| Lincoln Chafee | 36 | 12.77% |
| Jo Jorgensen | 18 | 6.38% |
| Adam Kokesh | 17 | 6.03% |
| Dan Behrman | 14 | 4.96% |
| John McAfee | 10 | 3.55% |
| Vermin Supreme | 9 | 3.19% |
| Other (write-in) | 8 | 2.84% |
| None of the above | 8 | 2.84% |
| Sam Robb | 7 | 2.48% |
| Max Abramson | 6 | 2.13% |
| Mark Whitney | 4 | 1.42% |
| Arvin Vohra | 3 | 1.06% |
| Ken Armstrong | 2 | 0.71% |
| Souraya Faas | 2 | 0.71% |
| Benjamin Leder | 1 | 0.35% |
| John Monds | 1 | 0.35% |
| Total | 281 | 100% |
The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[16][17]
General election
[edit]Final predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Tossup |
| Inside Elections[19] | Tossup |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Lean R |
| Politico[21] | Tossup |
| RCP[22] | Tossup |
| Niskanen[23] | Tossup |
| CNN[24] | Tossup |
| The Economist[25] | Tossup |
| CBS News[26] | Tossup |
| 270towin[27] | Tossup |
| ABC News[28] | Tossup |
| NPR[29] | Tossup |
| NBC News[30] | Tossup |
| 538[31] | Lean R |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [j] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[32] | October 31 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.2% | 47.8% | 6.0% | Trump +1.6 |
| Real Clear Politics[33] | October 23 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 45.6% | 47.6% | 6.8% | Trump +2.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight[34] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.3% | 47.6% | 6.1% | Trump +1.3 |
| Average | 46.0% | 47.7% | 6.3% | Trump +1.5 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[k] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[35] | Nov 1–2, 2020 | 871 (V) | – | 48% | 49% | – | – | 2%[l] | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,489 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51%[m] | 48% | – | – | – | – |
| Change Research[37] | Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 2%[n] | 1% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[38] | Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 49% | – | – | 3%[o] | 0% |
| Data for Progress[39] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | 3% | 1% | 1%[p] | – |
| Emerson College[40] | Oct 29–31, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49%[q] | 47% | – | – | 4% | 0% |
| InsiderAdvantage/Center for American Greatness[41][A] | October 30, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | 1% | – | – | 6% |
| Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[42] | Oct 26–29, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | – | – | 8%[r] | 2%[s] |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 3,005 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 50% | 49% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Quinnipiac University[43] | Oct 23–27, 2020 | 1,225 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 46% | – | – | 1%[t] | 6% |
| RABA Research/WHO13 News[44] | Oct 21–24, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 50% | – | – | 2%[l] | 1% |
| Emerson College[45] | Oct 19–21, 2020 | 435 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48%[q] | 48% | – | – | 4%[u] | 0% |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[46] | Oct 15–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47%[v] | 47% | – | – | 2%[l] | 4% |
| 45%[w] | 49% | – | – | 2%[l] | 4% | ||||
| 49%[x] | 48% | – | – | 2%[l] | 4% | ||||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[47] | Oct 18–20, 2020 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 1%[y] | 7%[z] |
| Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[48][A] | Oct 18–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 2% | – | – | 8% |
| Monmouth University[49] | Oct 15–19, 2020 | 501 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 0%[aa] | 2%[ab] | 2% |
| 501 (LV)[ac] | 47% | 50% | – | – | – | – | |||
| 501 (LV)[ad] | 46% | 51% | – | – | – | – | |||
| David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America[50] | Oct 10–13, 2020 | 200 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D)[51] | Oct 8–11, 2020 | 822 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 0% | – | 3% |
| YouGov/CBS[52] | Oct 6–9, 2020 | 1,035 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | – | – | 2%[ae] | 0% |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[53][B] | Oct 5–8, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 46%[q] | 47% | – | – | 3%[af] | 4%[z] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[54] | Oct 3–6, 2020 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 48% | – | – | 4%[u] | 1% |
| Quinnipiac University[55] | Oct 1–5, 2020 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 50% | – | – | 2%[l] | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 1,276 (LV) | – | 52% | 46% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D)[56] | Sep 23–28, 2020 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47%[v] | 44% | 1% | 1% | – | 6% |
| 50%[ag] | 45% | – | – | – | 5% | ||||
| Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[57][C] | Sep 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| RABA Research/WHO13 News[58] | Sep 23–26, 2020 | 780 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 48% | – | – | 2%[ah] | 4% |
| Monmouth University[59] | Sep 18–22, 2020 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 44% | 2% | 0% | 1%[ai] | 2% |
| 402 (LV) | 49%[ac] | 46% | 2% | – | 2%[aj] | 2% | |||
| 49%[ad] | 46% | 2% | – | 2%[aj] | 2% | ||||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[60] | Sep 16–22, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.99% | 42% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 1%[y] | 10%[z] |
| Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[61] | Sep 14–17, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 47% | – | – | 4%[u] | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[62] | Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 45% | – | – | 1%[ak] | 6% |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[63][B] | Aug 30 – Sep 2, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 51%[q] | 43% | 3% | 1% | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 983 (LV) | – | 53% | 46% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Monmouth University[64] | Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 3% | – | <1%[al] | 3% |
| 401 (LV) | 48%[ac] | 46% | 2% | <1%[am] | 3% | ||||
| 47%[ad] | 47% | 2% | 0%[an] | 3% | |||||
| Data for Progress[65] | Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | – | 44%[v] | 42% | 3% | 1% | – | 10% |
| 46%[ag] | 45% | – | – | – | 9% | ||||
| David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America[66] | Jul 30–31, 2020 | 200 (LV) | – | 43% | 49% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,095 (LV) | – | 54% | 45% | – | – | – | 1% |
| RMG Research[67] | Jul 27–30, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 40% | – | – | 7% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[68][D] | Jul 23–24, 2020 | 1,118 (V) | – | 48% | 47% | – | – | – | 6% |
| Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[69][E] | Jul 11–16, 2020 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 455 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Selzer/Des Moines Register[70] | Jun 7–10, 2020 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 43% | – | – | 10%[ao] | 3% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[71] | Jun 6–8, 2020 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 46% | – | – | 7%[ap] | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling/Emily's List[72][F] | Jun 3–4, 2020 | 963 (V) | – | 48% | 47% | – | – | – | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[73][1] | Apr 30 – May 1, 2020 | 1,222 (V) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | – | – | – | 6% |
| GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave[74] | Apr 13–16, 2020 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | – | – | 1% | 6% |
| Selzer/Des Moines Register[75] | Mar 2–5, 2020 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 41% | – | – | – | – |
| The New York Times/Siena College[76] | Jan 20–23, 2020 | 1,689 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 44% | – | – | 5%[aq] | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[77] | Dec 29–31, 2019 | 964 (V) | – | 49% | 46% | – | – | – | 5% |
| Emerson College[78] | Dec 7–10, 2019 | 1,043 (RV) | ± 3% | 49% | 45% | – | – | – | 6% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[79] | Oct 25–30, 2019 | 1,435 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 44% | – | – | 3% | 5% |
| Emerson College[80] | Oct 13–16, 2019 | 888 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 49% | – | – | – | – |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[81] | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 49% | 44% | – | – | – | 5% |
| Emerson College[82] | Mar 21–24, 2019 | 707 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 53% | – | – | – | – |
| Emerson College[83] | Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 | 831 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 51% | – | – | – | – |
Former candidates
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling
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with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown
with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi
with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
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Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump (incumbent) Mike Pence (incumbent) |
897,672 | 53.09% | +1.94% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
759,061 | 44.89% | +3.15% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
19,637 | 1.16% | −2.62% | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
3,210 | 0.19% | N/A | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
3,075 | 0.18% | −0.55% | |
| Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
1,707 | 0.10% | −0.24% | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
1,082 | 0.06% | N/A | |
| Genealogy Know Your Family History | Ricki Sue King Dayna Chandler |
546 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
544 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 4,337 | 0.38% | −1.09% | ||
| Total votes | 1,690,871 | 100.00% | |||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adair | 2,917 | 69.83% | 1,198 | 28.68% | 62 | 1.49% | 1,719 | 41.15% | 4,177 |
| Adams | 1,530 | 70.83% | 590 | 27.31% | 40 | 1.86% | 940 | 43.52% | 2,160 |
| Allamakee | 4,735 | 63.80% | 2,576 | 34.71% | 111 | 1.49% | 2,159 | 29.09% | 7,422 |
| Appanoose | 4,512 | 69.24% | 1,891 | 29.02% | 113 | 1.74% | 2,621 | 40.22% | 6,516 |
| Audubon | 2,295 | 67.11% | 1,071 | 31.32% | 54 | 1.57% | 1,224 | 35.79% | 3,420 |
| Benton | 9,188 | 62.75% | 5,160 | 35.24% | 294 | 2.01% | 4,028 | 27.51% | 14,642 |
| Black Hawk | 29,640 | 44.51% | 35,647 | 53.53% | 1,306 | 1.96% | -6,097 | -9.02% | 66,593 |
| Boone | 8,695 | 56.68% | 6,303 | 41.09% | 342 | 2.23% | 2,392 | 15.59% | 15,340 |
| Bremer | 8,294 | 57.02% | 5,958 | 40.96% | 294 | 2.02% | 2,336 | 16.06% | 14,546 |
| Buchanan | 6,420 | 59.59% | 4,169 | 38.70% | 185 | 1.71% | 2,251 | 20.89% | 10,774 |
| Buena Vista | 5,056 | 61.91% | 2,961 | 36.26% | 150 | 1.83% | 2,095 | 25.65% | 8,167 |
| Butler | 5,542 | 68.44% | 2,424 | 29.93% | 132 | 1.63% | 3,118 | 38.51% | 8,098 |
| Calhoun | 3,689 | 70.16% | 1,470 | 27.96% | 99 | 1.88% | 2,219 | 42.20% | 5,258 |
| Carroll | 7,737 | 68.26% | 3,454 | 30.47% | 144 | 1.27% | 4,283 | 37.79% | 11,335 |
| Cass | 4,969 | 68.29% | 2,201 | 30.25% | 106 | 1.46% | 2,768 | 38.04% | 7,276 |
| Cedar | 6,161 | 57.56% | 4,337 | 40.52% | 205 | 1.92% | 1,824 | 17.04% | 10,703 |
| Cerro Gordo | 12,442 | 52.28% | 10,941 | 45.97% | 418 | 1.75% | 1,501 | 6.31% | 23,801 |
| Cherokee | 4,495 | 68.96% | 1,936 | 29.70% | 87 | 1.34% | 2,559 | 39.26% | 6,518 |
| Chickasaw | 4,308 | 64.97% | 2,233 | 33.68% | 90 | 1.35% | 2,075 | 31.29% | 6,631 |
| Clarke | 3,144 | 67.32% | 1,466 | 31.39% | 60 | 1.29% | 1,678 | 35.93% | 4,670 |
| Clay | 6,137 | 68.42% | 2,662 | 29.68% | 170 | 1.90% | 3,475 | 38.74% | 8,969 |
| Clayton | 6,106 | 63.64% | 3,340 | 34.81% | 148 | 1.55% | 2,766 | 28.83% | 9,594 |
| Clinton | 13,361 | 54.12% | 10,812 | 43.80% | 514 | 2.08% | 2,549 | 10.32% | 24,687 |
| Crawford | 4,854 | 67.85% | 2,220 | 31.03% | 80 | 1.12% | 2,634 | 36.82% | 7,154 |
| Dallas | 27,987 | 49.96% | 26,879 | 47.98% | 1,156 | 2.06% | 1,108 | 1.98% | 56,022 |
| Davis | 3,032 | 73.92% | 1,013 | 24.70% | 57 | 1.38% | 2,019 | 49.22% | 4,102 |
| Decatur | 2,615 | 68.74% | 1,120 | 29.44% | 69 | 1.82% | 1,495 | 39.30% | 3,804 |
| Delaware | 6,666 | 66.64% | 3,157 | 31.56% | 180 | 1.80% | 3,509 | 35.08% | 10,003 |
| Des Moines | 10,592 | 53.08% | 8,893 | 44.56% | 471 | 2.36% | 1,699 | 8.52% | 19,956 |
| Dickinson | 7,438 | 66.15% | 3,661 | 32.56% | 145 | 1.29% | 3,777 | 33.59% | 11,244 |
| Dubuque | 27,214 | 50.47% | 25,657 | 47.58% | 1,055 | 1.95% | 1,557 | 2.89% | 53,926 |
| Emmet | 3,265 | 67.28% | 1,520 | 31.32% | 68 | 1.40% | 1,745 | 35.96% | 4,853 |
| Fayette | 6,145 | 60.33% | 3,835 | 37.65% | 206 | 2.02% | 2,310 | 22.68% | 10,186 |
| Floyd | 4,732 | 58.91% | 3,172 | 39.49% | 128 | 1.60% | 1,560 | 19.42% | 8,032 |
| Franklin | 3,422 | 66.71% | 1,626 | 31.70% | 82 | 1.59% | 1,796 | 35.01% | 5,130 |
| Fremont | 2,711 | 70.29% | 1,080 | 28.00% | 66 | 1.71% | 1,631 | 42.29% | 3,857 |
| Greene | 3,223 | 63.73% | 1,769 | 34.98% | 65 | 1.29% | 1,454 | 28.75% | 5,057 |
| Grundy | 4,929 | 67.74% | 2,206 | 30.32% | 141 | 1.94% | 2,723 | 37.42% | 7,276 |
| Guthrie | 4,272 | 67.05% | 1,985 | 31.16% | 114 | 1.79% | 2,287 | 35.89% | 6,371 |
| Hamilton | 4,956 | 62.39% | 2,843 | 35.79% | 144 | 1.82% | 2,113 | 26.60% | 7,943 |
| Hancock | 4,390 | 71.13% | 1,683 | 27.27% | 99 | 1.60% | 2,707 | 43.86% | 6,172 |
| Hardin | 5,850 | 65.08% | 2,976 | 33.11% | 163 | 1.81% | 2,874 | 31.97% | 8,989 |
| Harrison | 5,569 | 68.29% | 2,440 | 29.92% | 146 | 1.79% | 3,129 | 38.37% | 8,155 |
| Henry | 6,507 | 65.19% | 3,275 | 32.81% | 200 | 2.00% | 3,232 | 32.38% | 9,982 |
| Howard | 3,127 | 63.07% | 1,772 | 35.74% | 59 | 1.19% | 1,355 | 27.33% | 4,958 |
| Humboldt | 3,819 | 71.69% | 1,442 | 27.07% | 66 | 1.24% | 2,377 | 44.62% | 5,327 |
| Ida | 2,880 | 74.82% | 917 | 23.82% | 52 | 1.36% | 1,963 | 51.00% | 3,849 |
| Iowa | 6,009 | 61.68% | 3,547 | 36.41% | 186 | 1.91% | 2,462 | 25.27% | 9,742 |
| Jackson | 6,940 | 62.33% | 4,029 | 36.18% | 166 | 1.49% | 2,911 | 26.15% | 11,135 |
| Jasper | 12,084 | 59.87% | 7,737 | 38.33% | 363 | 1.80% | 4,347 | 21.54% | 20,184 |
| Jefferson | 4,443 | 49.59% | 4,319 | 48.21% | 197 | 2.20% | 125 | 1.38% | 8,959 |
| Johnson | 22,925 | 27.34% | 59,177 | 70.57% | 1,749 | 2.09% | -36,252 | -43.23% | 83,851 |
| Jones | 6,572 | 59.81% | 4,213 | 38.34% | 204 | 1.85% | 2,359 | 21.47% | 10,989 |
| Keokuk | 3,797 | 71.60% | 1,414 | 26.66% | 92 | 1.74% | 2,383 | 44.94% | 5,303 |
| Kossuth | 6,275 | 69.03% | 2,696 | 29.66% | 119 | 1.31% | 3,579 | 39.37% | 9,090 |
| Lee | 9,773 | 58.40% | 6,541 | 39.09% | 420 | 2.51% | 3,232 | 19.31% | 16,734 |
| Linn | 53,364 | 41.87% | 70,874 | 55.61% | 3,220 | 2.52% | -17,510 | -13.74% | 127,458 |
| Louisa | 3,500 | 65.64% | 1,726 | 32.37% | 106 | 1.99% | 1,774 | 33.27% | 5,332 |
| Lucas | 3,287 | 70.99% | 1,284 | 27.73% | 59 | 1.28% | 2,003 | 43.26% | 4,630 |
| Lyon | 5,707 | 83.16% | 1,067 | 15.55% | 89 | 1.29% | 4,640 | 67.61% | 6,863 |
| Madison | 6,507 | 66.24% | 3,134 | 31.90% | 183 | 1.86% | 3,373 | 34.34% | 9,824 |
| Mahaska | 8,297 | 72.76% | 2,894 | 25.38% | 213 | 1.86% | 5,403 | 47.38% | 11,404 |
| Marion | 12,663 | 65.84% | 6,178 | 32.12% | 391 | 2.04% | 6,485 | 33.72% | 19,232 |
| Marshall | 9,571 | 52.77% | 8,176 | 45.08% | 389 | 2.15% | 1,395 | 7.69% | 18,136 |
| Mills | 5,585 | 67.55% | 2,508 | 30.33% | 175 | 2.12% | 3,077 | 37.22% | 8,268 |
| Mitchell | 3,677 | 63.16% | 2,053 | 35.26% | 92 | 1.58% | 1,624 | 27.90% | 5,822 |
| Monona | 3,248 | 68.70% | 1,407 | 29.76% | 73 | 1.54% | 1,841 | 38.94% | 4,728 |
| Monroe | 2,975 | 72.77% | 1,078 | 26.37% | 35 | 0.86% | 1,897 | 46.40% | 4,088 |
| Montgomery | 3,659 | 68.69% | 1,583 | 29.72% | 85 | 1.59% | 2,076 | 38.97% | 5,327 |
| Muscatine | 10,823 | 52.36% | 9,372 | 45.34% | 476 | 2.30% | 1,451 | 7.02% | 20,671 |
| O'Brien | 5,861 | 77.62% | 1,569 | 20.78% | 121 | 1.60% | 4,292 | 56.84% | 7,551 |
| Osceola | 2,690 | 80.83% | 601 | 18.06% | 37 | 1.11% | 2,089 | 62.77% | 3,328 |
| Page | 5,319 | 70.66% | 2,086 | 27.71% | 123 | 1.63% | 3,233 | 42.95% | 7,528 |
| Palo Alto | 3,370 | 67.97% | 1,519 | 30.64% | 69 | 1.39% | 1,851 | 37.33% | 4,958 |
| Plymouth | 10,492 | 73.95% | 3,494 | 24.63% | 202 | 1.42% | 6,998 | 49.32% | 14,188 |
| Pocahontas | 2,826 | 73.92% | 933 | 24.40% | 64 | 1.68% | 1,893 | 49.52% | 3,823 |
| Polk | 106,800 | 41.27% | 146,250 | 56.52% | 5,705 | 2.21% | -39,450 | -15.25% | 258,755 |
| Pottawattamie | 26,247 | 57.38% | 18,575 | 40.61% | 922 | 2.01% | 7,672 | 16.77% | 45,744 |
| Poweshiek | 5,657 | 55.79% | 4,306 | 42.47% | 177 | 1.74% | 1,351 | 13.32% | 10,140 |
| Ringgold | 1,968 | 72.51% | 709 | 26.12% | 37 | 1.37% | 1,259 | 46.39% | 2,714 |
| Sac | 4,061 | 73.37% | 1,389 | 25.09% | 85 | 1.54% | 2,672 | 48.28% | 5,535 |
| Scott | 43,683 | 47.17% | 46,926 | 50.68% | 1,990 | 2.15% | -3,243 | -3.51% | 92,599 |
| Shelby | 4,697 | 69.12% | 1,959 | 28.83% | 139 | 2.05% | 2,738 | 40.29% | 6,795 |
| Sioux | 15,680 | 82.31% | 3,019 | 15.85% | 352 | 1.84% | 12,661 | 66.46% | 19,051 |
| Story | 20,340 | 39.85% | 29,175 | 57.16% | 1,523 | 2.99% | -8,835 | -17.31% | 51,038 |
| Tama | 5,303 | 58.61% | 3,577 | 39.53% | 168 | 1.86% | 1,726 | 19.08% | 9,048 |
| Taylor | 2,463 | 75.81% | 746 | 22.96% | 40 | 1.23% | 1,717 | 52.85% | 3,249 |
| Union | 4,010 | 64.83% | 2,061 | 33.32% | 114 | 1.85% | 1,949 | 31.51% | 6,185 |
| Van Buren | 2,859 | 75.42% | 875 | 23.08% | 57 | 1.50% | 1,984 | 52.34% | 3,791 |
| Wapello | 9,516 | 60.87% | 5,821 | 37.24% | 296 | 1.89% | 3,695 | 23.63% | 15,633 |
| Warren | 17,782 | 57.29% | 12,574 | 40.51% | 683 | 2.20% | 5,208 | 16.78% | 31,039 |
| Washington | 6,971 | 59.25% | 4,561 | 38.77% | 233 | 1.98% | 2,410 | 20.48% | 11,765 |
| Wayne | 2,338 | 75.20% | 727 | 23.38% | 44 | 1.42% | 1,611 | 51.82% | 3,109 |
| Webster | 10,938 | 61.37% | 6,613 | 37.11% | 271 | 1.52% | 4,325 | 24.26% | 17,822 |
| Winnebago | 3,707 | 62.09% | 2,135 | 35.76% | 128 | 2.15% | 1,572 | 26.33% | 5,970 |
| Winneshiek | 6,235 | 51.68% | 5,617 | 46.56% | 212 | 1.76% | 618 | 5.12% | 12,064 |
| Woodbury | 25,736 | 56.73% | 18,704 | 41.23% | 922 | 2.04% | 7,032 | 16.40% | 45,362 |
| Worth | 2,738 | 61.97% | 1,596 | 36.12% | 84 | 1.91% | 1,142 | 25.85% | 4,418 |
| Wright | 4,136 | 66.13% | 1,996 | 31.92% | 122 | 1.95% | 2,140 | 34.21% | 6,254 |
| Totals | 897,672 | 53.09% | 759,061 | 44.89% | 34,138 | 2.02% | 138,611 | 8.20% | 1,690,871 |
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won all 4 of the state's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 50.79% | 47.38% | Abby Finkenauer |
| Ashley Hinson | |||
| 2nd | 51.10% | 47.10% | Dave Loebsack |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | |||
| 3rd | 49.15% | 49.02% | Cindy Axne |
| 4th | 62.68% | 35.73% | Steve King |
| Randy Feenstra |
Analysis
[edit]Per exit polling by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Iowa came from White Iowans with no college degree, who comprised 62% of the electorate and supported Trump by 58%–40%. Trump also dominated amongst Christian voters, garnering 66% of Protestants, 54% of Catholics, and 76% of born-again/Evangelical Christians. 53% of voters believed Trump was better able to handle international trade.[87] Trump continued to win the cultural message among voters without college degrees in Iowa.[88]
During the primary season, there remained hope among Democrats that Iowa would still be a contestable state.[89] However, Trump's well-held victory in the state in the general election also saw Republican congressional candidates—from Senator Joni Ernst to two House seats, both held by Democrats (one vacated by Dave Loebsack in Iowa's 2nd district)—winning their election.
Neither Biden nor Trump flipped any counties in the state, although Biden came within 2% of flipping Dallas County, a suburb of Des Moines. Jefferson County was also very close, having gone for Trump by a similarly tight margin four years earlier.
Biden became the first Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win the presidency without carrying Iowa, the first since 1916 to win without carrying Wapello County, as well as the first since FDR in 1940 to win the presidency without carrying Dubuque County and Howard County.
Edison exit polls
[edit]| 2020 presidential election in Iowa by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[90][91] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of
total vote |
| Total vote | 44.89 | 53.09 | 100 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 90 | 9 | 20 |
| Moderates | 59 | 38 | 41 |
| Conservatives | 8 | 90 | 39 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 93 | 7 | 26 |
| Republicans | 7 | 93 | 36 |
| Independents | 50 | 46 | 38 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 39 | 58 | 48 |
| Women | 51 | 48 | 52 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 43 | 55 | 92 |
| Black | 76 | 22 | 2 |
| Latino | 67 | 31 | 4 |
| Asian | – | – | 1 |
| Other | – | – | 2 |
| Age | |||
| 18–24 years old | 58 | 39 | 10 |
| 25–29 years old | 39 | 55 | 5 |
| 30–39 years old | 44 | 50 | 13 |
| 40–49 years old | 50 | 48 | 14 |
| 50–64 years old | 40 | 60 | 28 |
| 65 and older | 45 | 54 | 28 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 4 |
| Not LGBT | 44 | 55 | 96 |
| Education | |||
| High school or less | 37 | 63 | 19 |
| Some college education | 46 | 53 | 26 |
| Associate degree | 39 | 59 | 17 |
| Bachelor's degree | 49 | 48 | 26 |
| Postgraduate degree | 58 | 39 | 13 |
| Income | |||
| Under $30,000 | 58 | 41 | 15 |
| $30,000–49,999 | 47 | 49 | 23 |
| $50,000–99,999 | 39 | 60 | 35 |
| $100,000–199,999 | 46 | 51 | 22 |
| Over $200,000 | – | – | 5 |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||
| Racial inequality | 91 | 8 | 10 |
| Coronavirus | 88 | 10 | 19 |
| Economy | 10 | 87 | 36 |
| Crime and safety | 13 | 86 | 12 |
| Health care | 79 | 19 | 13 |
| Region | |||
| Eastern Cities | 54 | 44 | 27 |
| East Central | 42 | 56 | 19 |
| Des Moines Area | 54 | 44 | 24 |
| Central | 35 | 64 | 16 |
| West | 31 | 67 | 15 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 56 | 42 | 32 |
| Suburban | 48 | 51 | 29 |
| Rural | 35 | 63 | 39 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Better than four years ago | 16 | 82 | 46 |
| Worse than four years ago | 87 | 10 | 13 |
| About the same | 60 | 38 | 41 |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Iowa
- 2020 Iowa elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
- ^ The official results included four decimal digits.
- ^ In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
- ^ Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
- ^ Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
- ^ Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
- ^ 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, were reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
- ^ Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not to contest the first four nominating contests of the primary season, including the Iowa caucuses.[14]
- ^ Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[10]
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d e f "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Don't recall" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- ^ a b c d With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ Includes "Do not remember"
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ a b c Standard VI response
- ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ a b c Includes "Refused"
- ^ No voters
- ^ "Another candidate" and "No one" with 1%
- ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ^ "Other third party" with 2%
- ^ "One of the other candidates" with 2%; West (B) with 1%
- ^ a b If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
- ^ "Other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
- ^ a b "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
- ^ Would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Other" and "No-one" with <1%
- ^ "Other" with <1%
- ^ "Other" with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ a b c Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
- ^ a b Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
- ^ Other and would not vote with 2%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
- ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
- ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
- ^ Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
- ^ End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
References
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- ^ "Iowa Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Iowa
- David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", The New York Times. (Describes bellwether Marshall County, Iowa)
External links
[edit]- "League of Women Voters of Iowa". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Iowa", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Iowa: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
