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2018 United States Senate election in Texas

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2018 United States Senate election in Texas

← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout53.01%
 
Nominee Ted Cruz Beto O'Rourke
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,260,553 4,045,632
Percentage 50.9% 48.3%

County results
Cruz:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
O'Rourke:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Ted Cruz
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Ted Cruz
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz ran successfully for re-election to a second term against Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke. The primary for all parties was held on March 6, 2018, making it the first primary of the 2018 season.[1] As Cruz and O'Rourke both won majorities in their primaries, they did not participate in the May 22 runoff primary that was held for some nominations in Texas.[2]

No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was reelected as lieutenant governor in 1994, with election pre-predictions declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of the 2018 cycle.[3] However, O'Rourke gradually closed the gap,[4] and the race was considered unexpectedly competitive.[5]

On Election Day, Cruz defeated O'Rourke[6] by a margin of 50.9 to 48.3 percent; the race was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978.[7] O'Rourke earned over four million votes, surpassing Hillary Clinton's total of 3.87 million in the 2016 election.[8] He received more votes than any other Democrat in Texas history[9] and came closer to winning than any other Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Texas has since 1988.[10] O'Rourke raised $80 million for the campaign, which is the highest amount ever raised by a U.S. Senate candidate to date.[11]

Background

In 2012, after a stunning upset victory in the Republican primary, then-Solicitor General of Texas Ted Cruz defeated then Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst by a 16-point margin (56%–40%). Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. As conservatives began turning to the Republican Party in once strongly Democratic areas, Democratic voters became concentrated in Southern Texas (which hold majority minority counties) and large metropolitan cities, such as Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, as well as the far western majority-minority city of El Paso, which O'Rourke represented in the U.S. House.

Since 1990, Texas has voted for Republican statewide candidates in all elections, whether it be presidential, gubernatorial, or senatorial, often by large margins. In 1998, Governor George W. Bush won re-election by 37 points over his Democratic challenger, Garry Mauro. In 2004, President Bush won Texas over Senator John Kerry by 23 points, winning rural areas by landslide margins and capturing urban zones. Democrat Barack Obama was defeated by margins of 12 points in 2008, against John McCain, and 16 points in 2012, against Mitt Romney, respectively. However, in 2016, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by only a 9-point margin, demonstrating a possible shift away from the Safe Republican status it had held for over a decade. This has led Democrats to begin targeting Texas as a potential future swing state. It should also be noted that Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in the Texas Republican primary for U.S. President in 2016.

As of June 2018, Senator Cruz held a 49%–44% approval rating among Texans in a state Donald Trump won by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Among groups that tend to affiliate themselves more with the Democratic Party, Senator Cruz held a 29% approval rating among Hispanics, 37% among females, and 42% among college-educated voters.[12]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

  • Thomas Dillingham, businessman[19]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Bruce Jacobson
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Stefano
de Stefano
Bruce
Jacobson
Mary
Miller
Geraldine
Sam
Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 ± 4.7% 73% 1% 2% 2% 1% 21%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 612 ± 5.3% 91% 1% 3% 3% 2%

Results

County results of the Republican primary for Class 1 United States Senate in Texas, 2018
Cruz
  •   Cruz—≥90%
  •   Cruz—80–90%
  •   Cruz—70–80%
No votes
  •   No votes
Republican primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 1,322,724 85.36%
Republican Mary Miller 94,715 6.11%
Republican Bruce Jacobson, Jr. 64,791 4.18%
Republican Stefano de Stefano 44,456 2.87%
Republican Geraldine Sam 22,887 1.48%
Total votes 1,549,573 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Sema Hernandez
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Sema
Hernandez
Edward
Kimbrough
Beto
O'Rourke
Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 ± 5.7% 6% 4% 38% 53%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 453 ± 7.4% 19% 8% 73%

Results

County results of the Democratic primary for Class 1 United States Senate in Texas, 2018
O'Rourke
  •   O'Rourke—>90%
  •   O'Rourke—80-90%
  •   O'Rourke—70-80%
  •   O'Rourke—60-70%
  •   O'Rourke—50-60%
  •   O'Rourke—40-50%
  •   O'Rourke—<40%
  •   Kimbrough / O'Rourke—50%
O'Rourke/Hernandez tie
  •   O'Rourke/Hernandez tie—<50%
O'Rourke/Kimbrough tie
  •   O'Rourke/Kimbrough tie—50%
Hernandez
  •   Hernandez—>90%
  •   Hernandez—80-90%
  •   Hernandez—70-80%
  •   Hernandez—60-70%
  •   Hernandez—50-60%
  •   Hernandez—40-50%
  •   Hernandez—<40%
Kimbrough
  •   Kimbrough / O'Rourke—50%
  •   Kimbrough—<40%
  •   Kimbrough—40-50%
  •   Kimbrough—50-60%
  •   Kimbrough—60-70%
  •   Kimbrough—70-80%
  •   Kimbrough—80-90%
  •   Kimbrough—>90%
Democratic primary results[49]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Beto O'Rourke 644,632 61.81%
Democratic Sema Hernandez 247,424 23.72%
Democratic Edward Kimbrough 150,858 14.47%
Total votes 1,042,914 100.00%

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Carl Bible, nurse[52]
  • Jonathan Jenkins, tech entrepreneur[53][54]
  • Bob McNeil, businessman[55] (American Citizen Party)[a]

Declined

Notes

  1. ^ American Citizen Party does not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent."[56]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[59] Tossup October 5, 2018
Inside Elections[60] Likely R September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[61] Lean R October 5, 2018
CNN[62] Lean R October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[63] Lean R October 3, 2018
Daily Kos[64] Lean R October 5, 2018
Fox News[65][a] Lean R October 30, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

Endorsements

Ted Cruz (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Texas State Senators
Texas State Representatives
Local Officeholders
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Beto O'Rourke (D)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Texas State Senators
  • Wendy Davis, former State Senator (D-10th District) and 2014 Democratic nominee for Governor of Texas[118]
Texas State Representatives
  • Chris Turner, State Representative (D-101st District) and Chair of the Texas House Democratic Caucus[119]
Local Officeholders
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

In the third quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised $38.1 million. To date, this amount is the largest quarterly total raised by a U.S. Senate candidate in history.[202] Cruz and O'Rourke combined to raise a record-setting total of $114.8 million during the 2018 campaign.[203]

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Ted Cruz (R) $40,231,978 $34,009,305 $6,702,089
Beto O'Rourke (D) $70,243,002 $60,305,649 $10,336,213
Neal Dikeman (L) $29,308 $25,297 $4,009
Source: Federal Election Commission[204]

Polling


Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Neal
Dikeman (L)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 3–5, 2018 2,135 ± 2.1% 52% 43% 1% 4%
Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC) November 1–2, 2018 1,211 49% 49% 1%
Emerson College October 28–30, 2018 781 ± 3.7% 50% 47% 1% 2%
Quinnipiac University October 22–28, 2018 1,078 ± 3.5% 51% 46% 1% 3%
University of Texas Tyler October 15–28, 2018 905 LV 47% 43% 4% 6%
1,033 RV ± 3.0% 47% 42% 4% 8%
Dixie Strategies October 25–26, 2018 588 ± 4.0% 52% 42% 5%
GBA Strategies (D-End Citizens United) October 18–21, 2018 1,000 ± 4.0% 50% 46% 2% 2%
University of Texas/YouGov October 15–21, 2018 927 ± 3.2% 51% 45% 2% 2%
Ipsos October 12–18, 2018 1,298 ± 3.2% 49% 44% 3% 1%
Tulchin Research (D-MoveOn) October 10–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 3% 3%
CNN/SSRS October 9–13, 2018 716 LV ± 4.5% 52% 45% 0% 2%
862 RV ± 4.1% 50% 45% 0% 3%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) October 8–13, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 52% 43% 1% 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 800 ± 3.6% 51% 43% 1% 5%
Quinnipiac University October 3–9, 2018 730 ± 4.4% 54% 45% 0% 2%
YouGov October 2–5, 2018 881 50% 44% 2% 4%
Emerson College October 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 47% 42% 3% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 19–20, 2018 613 ± 4.0% 48% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) September 19–20, 2018 603 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 5%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 508 ± 4.4% 50% 50%
Quinnipiac University September 11–17, 2018 807 ± 4.1% 54% 45% 0% 1%
Chism Strategies (D-Reform Austin) September 11–12, 2018 1,161 ± 3.0% 49% 45% 5%
Ipsos September 6–14, 2018 992 ± 4.0% 45% 47% 3% 5%
Crosswind Media & Public Relations September 6–9, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 47% 44%
Dixie Strategies September 6–7, 2018 519 ± 4.3% 46% 42% 1% 11%
Emerson College August 22–25, 2018 550 ± 4.4% 38% 37% 4% 21%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018 759 ± 3.8% 49% 45% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) August 1–2, 2018 797 ± 3.5% 46% 42%
Quinnipiac University July 26–31, 2018 1,118 ± 3.5% 49% 43% 0% 6%
Texas Lyceum July 9–26, 2018 441 LV ± 4.7% 41% 39% 1% 19%
806 RV ± 3.5% 36% 34% 3% 24%
Gravis Marketing July 3–7, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 51% 42% 7%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 821 LV 50% 40% 3% 7%
1,025 RV ± 3.6% 44% 36% 3% 13%
University of Texas/YouGov June 8–17, 2018 1,200 ± 2.8% 41% 36% 2% 3% 17%
GQR Research (D-End Citizens United) May 29 – June 5, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 49% 43% 8%
Quinnipiac University May 23–29, 2018 961 ± 3.8% 50% 39% 0% 9%
Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC) May 21–28, 2018 601 ± 4.1% 48% 36% 3% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D-Giffords) May 21–22, 2018 861 ± 3.3% 48% 42% 10%
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) May 19–21, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 47% 40% 6%[205] 7%
Quinnipiac University April 12–17, 2018 1,029 ± 3.6% 47% 44% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) January 17–18, 2018 757 ± 3.6% 45% 37% 18%
WPA Intelligence (R-Cruz) December 12–14, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 52% 34% 1% 13%
Texas Lyceum April 3–9, 2017 1,000 ± 3.1% 30% 30% 3% 37%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke. However, O'Rourke gave Democrats their best performance in a Texas statewide election since Ann Richards was elected governor in 1990.[206] In addition, O'Rourke flipped several counties in Texas that Donald Trump carried in 2016, including Williamson (includes Round Rock and Georgetown), historically conservative Tarrant (includes Fort Worth and suburbs within the DFW metroplex), Jefferson (includes Beaumont and Port Arthur), Nueces (includes Corpus Christi), sparsely populated Brewster (includes Big Bend National Park), and Hays (includes San Marcos). Cruz only flipped one county that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, sparsely populated Kenedy (coastal region south of Corpus Christi).

United States Senate election in Texas, 2018[207]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 4,260,553 50.89% −5.57%
Democratic Beto O'Rourke 4,045,632 48.33% +7.71%
Libertarian Neal Dikeman 65,470 0.78% −1.28%
Total votes 8,371,655 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Cruz won 20 of 36 congressional districts [208]

District Cruz O'Rourke Representative
1st 71% 28% Louie Gohmert
2nd 50% 49% Ted Poe
Dan Crenshaw
3rd 51% 48% Sam Johnson
Van Taylor
4th 74% 25% John Ratcliffe
5th 60% 39% Jeb Hensarling
Lance Gooden
6th 51% 48% Joe Barton
Ron Wright
7th 46% 53% John Culberson
Lizzie Fletcher
8th 71% 28% Kevin Brady
9th 19% 80% Al Green
10th 49.4% 49.6% Michael McCaul
11th 78% 21% Mike Conaway
12th 60% 39% Kay Granger
13th 79% 20% Mac Thornberry
14th 58% 41% Randy Weber
15th 42% 57% Vicente Gonzalez
16th 26% 73% Beto O'Rourke
Veronica Escobar
17th 54% 45% Bill Flores
18th 20% 79% Sheila Jackson Lee
19th 71% 28% Jodey Arrington
20th 33% 66% Joaquín Castro
21st 49.6% 49.5% Lamar Smith
Chip Roy
22nd 49.9% 49.3% Pete Olson
23rd 47% 52% Will Hurd
24th 48% 51% Kenny Marchant
25th 52% 47% Roger Williams
26th 57% 42% Michael Burgess
27th 60% 39% Michael Cloud
28th 40% 59% Henry Cuellar
29th 25% 74% Gene Green
Sylvia Garcia
30th 18% 82% Eddie Bernice Johnson
31st 50% 48% John Carter
32nd 44% 55% Pete Sessions
Colin Allred
33rd 22% 77% Marc Veasey
34th 42% 58% Filemon Vela Jr.
35th 27% 72% Lloyd Doggett
36th 71% 28% Brian Babin

References

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  75. ^ Ryan Sitton. "Texas has a choice to make and I #ChooseCruz because @tedcruz has Texas booming while @betoorourke will take our state backwards. WATCH and RETWEET! #KeepTexasRed #TexasDebate". Twitter.
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  77. ^ Sen. Charles Perry. "Sen. Ted Cruz came to Lubbock after winning his debate for a campaign rally. There was a huge crowd and I had the honor of introducing him. I cannot imagine having the far-left Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke representing West Texas in Washington. We must get out the vote!". Twitter.
  78. ^ @CBellJr (August 20, 2018). "Honored to be in attendance at McKinzie's BBQ in Conroe with Sen. Ted Cruz, Congressman Kevin Brady, and a host of others. What a great crowd!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  79. ^ @leachfortexas (August 28, 2018). "The momentum is building!! Proud to welcome @GregAbbott_TX & @tedcruz to Collin County for our #Victory2018 Labor Day Kickoff! You won't want to miss this - get your tix today! @KenPaxtonTX @VanTaylorTX @AngelaPaxtonTX @Scott_SanfordTX @MattShaheen @candynoble #KeepTexasStrong" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  81. ^ @RepStickland (August 23, 2018). "Looks like @BetoORourke 's comments on the NFL have gone viral. What should go viral are his absolutely insane liberal positions on late term abortion, anti #2a & failed Obamacare for all. He's wrong for Texas. #txlege #CruzCrew @tedcruz" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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Official campaign websites