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2024 United States Senate elections in California

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Not to be confused with 2024 California State Senate election.
For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

2024 United States Senate elections in California
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Candidate Adam Schiff Steve Garvey
Party Democratic Republican
Regular election 9,036,252
58.87% 		6,312,594
41.13%
Special election 8,837,051
58.75% 		6,204,637
41.25%
Schiff:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Garvey:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Laphonza Butler[a]
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Adam Schiff
Democratic

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Two 2024 United States Senate elections in California were held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of California. There were two ballot items for the same Class 1 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final month of the 118th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2025), and a regular general election for a full term that starts on January 3, 2025, starting in the 119th United States Congress. This was the second time in a row that both a regular and special election for the U.S. Senate occurred simultaneously in California, following the 2022 elections.

Two Democratic U.S. representatives, Katie Porter of Irvine and Adam Schiff of Burbank, entered the race for the 119th Congress before February 14, 2023, when fellow Democrat Dianne Feinstein announced that she would retire at the end of her term.[1][2] A third, Barbara Lee of Oakland, announced her campaign on February 21, 2023.[3] Feinstein died in office on September 29, 2023. On October 1, 2023, California Governor Gavin Newsom appointed Laphonza Butler to fill Feinstein's term until a special election could be held in November 2024 to fill the last month of Feinstein's term. On October 19, 2023, Butler announced that she would not seek election to finish the final month of Feinstein's term, nor for a full Senate term in the 119th Congress.

Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday.[4] California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary election, in which all candidates regardless of party affiliation appear on the same primary ballot and the two highest-placing candidates advance to the general election; however, primary special election winners can win outright if they win more than 50% of the vote in the first round.[5] Schiff, along with Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey, advanced to the general election in both the special and regular elections. As no Republican has won a Senate election in California since 1988, Schiff was considered a heavy favorite, and easily won both the regular and special general elections with more than 58% of the vote.

Schiff will become the first male U.S. senator from this seat since John Seymour left office in 1992, and will also make California one of several states to have a younger senior senator (Alex Padilla) and an older junior senator (Schiff).[6] Schiff's popular vote total of 9 million in the regular election broke the record previously held by Feinstein in 2012 for the highest vote total ever received by a U.S. Senate candidate in American history, as well as the highest vote total ever received by a candidate for any office in any state outside of the presidency.

With over 41% of the vote in the general election, Garvey had the best performance of any Republican candidate for this seat since 1994. Garvey also managed to win two counties that voted for Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election: Nevada County and Orange County. With over 6.3 million votes in the regular election, Garvey set the record for the most votes ever received by a Republican candidate in California, and the most votes received by a non-presidential Republican candidate in any state in American history; he received over 200,000 more votes than Donald Trump did in the state's presidential election.

Background

[edit]

California is considered to be a safe blue state at the federal and state levels, with Joe Biden winning the state by a margin of 29.16% in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats currently hold a large majority in California's U.S. House delegation, all statewide offices (including both U.S. Senate seats), and supermajorities in both of California's state legislative chambers.

Prior to the 2024 election, senator Dianne Feinstein had served in Congress since being elected in a 1992 special election, defeating Republican appointee John Seymour. During her career, she was re-elected five times, winning in 1994, 2000, 2006, 2012, and most recently in 2018, where she defeated fellow Democrat Kevin de León with 54.2% of the vote. At the time of her death, Feinstein was the most senior Democrat in the Senate, and is the longest serving U.S. senator in California's history.

Candidates

[edit]

Democratic Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Denard Ingram, psychologist and social worker[14]
  • Lexi Reese, investor and former Google executive[15]

Declined

[edit]

Republican Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Write-in candidates

[edit]
  • Danny Fabricant, retired sliding door repairman and convicted felon[37]
  • Carlos Guillermo Tapia, realtor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[37]

Declined

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

American Independent Party

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

No party preference

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Write-in candidates

[edit]
  • Michael Dilger, social media marketing professional[37]
  • John Dowell[37]

Declined

[edit]

Primary elections

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]
Dianne Feinstein in 2021

Schiff, Porter, and Lee declare

[edit]

Media sources speculated for years that Dianne Feinstein might choose not to seek reelection in 2024 or resign before the end of her term, owing to her age, reports that her cognitive state was declining, and her decision not to take the position of Senate president pro tempore in the 118th Congress, third in line for the presidency, even though she would customarily have been offered the role as the most senior member of the majority caucus. There was also speculation that Feinstein might face opposition within the Democratic Party as she did in 2018, when she was challenged by fellow Democrat Kevin de León and defeated him by an unexpectedly narrow margin.[44] In December 2022, Feinstein confirmed that she would not resign before the end of her term.[45]

Katie Porter campaigning at University of California, Davis, in March 2023

In January 2023, with the question of Feinstein's reelection decision still open, U.S. Representative Katie Porter announced that she would run for the Senate. She confirmed that she would stay in the race even if Feinstein chose to run for another term.[1] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics, and frequently went viral online for her pointed questioning of corporate executives in congressional hearings, often while using a whiteboard.[46] Porter's coastal, Orange County-based district is considered highly competitive, and all of her elections have been close.[47]

Adam Schiff at his first campaign event, February 2023

Two weeks later, Porter was joined by another Democratic member of the House, Adam Schiff, who said that he had consulted with Feinstein before entering the race.[2] A moderate[48] Democrat who unseated incumbent James Rogan in 2000, Schiff's profile rose significantly during first term of president Donald Trump, owing to his role as a lead impeachment manager in the first impeachment of Donald Trump, his service on the January 6 Committee, and his frequent appearances on MSNBC.[49] Schiff has not faced a competitive election since 2000, as his Los Angeles-based district became significantly more Democratic during the 2000 redistricting cycle and has been considered a safe seat ever since.[50]

Barbara Lee speaking at the 2023 California Democratic Party Convention

A third Democratic House member, Barbara Lee, reportedly told members of the Congressional Black Caucus in January that she would also run for the Senate.[51] As she was already 76 years old in January 2023, Lee reportedly pitched herself to donors as a transitional senator who would serve only one term.[52] A longtime progressive first elected in a 1998 special election, Lee is known for being the only member of Congress to vote against the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001, which led to military deployment in Afghanistan and several other countries.[53] Lee filed to run for Senate in early February 2023 and formally announced her campaign later that month.[54][3] Lee's district, based in Alameda County and including one of the state's largest cities in Oakland, is one of the most Democratic-leaning districts in the entire country.[55]

Feinstein continued to demur on her reelection plans, at one point saying she would not announce her decision until 2024.[56] But in February 2023, she confirmed that she would retire, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.[57] The 2024 election is only the second California Senate race without an incumbent since 1992, the other being the 2016 election following Barbara Boxer's retirement. However, Politico pointed out that the 2016 election had an "early and prohibitive frontrunner" in Kamala Harris while the 2024 election has no clear frontrunner, and thus considers the 2024 election the first truly open California Senate race in 32 years.[58]

Early months of the race

[edit]

Lee, Porter, and Schiff have similar voting records in Congress and similarly progressive platforms. As a result, they were expected to differentiate themselves by their life stories and individual strengths rather than their ideologies.[59] All three have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Porter has been accused of mistreating congressional staff, Lee's age was seen as a potential issue, and Schiff was expected to face opposition from progressives due to his past support for overseas military intervention and for taking donations from groups affiliated with the oil, payday loan, and pharmaceutical industries, though he has declared he would not accept funds from corporate PACs in his Senate campaign.[60][59] Schiff has also been criticized for listing his primary residence as Montgomery County, Maryland, in tax documents, though his campaign maintains that he lives in Burbank, California.[61] Other important factors include geography, as Schiff and Porter both represent southern California while Lee represents northern California, and diversity; a victory by Schiff would leave California with no female senators for the first time since 1992, while a victory by Lee would make her only the fourth black woman to serve in the Senate.[59][62]

Schiff began 2023 with $20.6 million in his campaign account compared to $7.7 million for Porter and just under $55,000 for Lee.[63] All three quickly began raising large sums of money; for example, in the first 24 hours of her campaign, Porter raised over $1.3 million.[64] The three also launched super PACs to aid with fundraising, each competing for the top California fundraising firms and consultants. Former Federal Election Commission chair Ann Ravel predicted that the race would be one of the most expensive Senate elections in history.[65] The expensive nature of the race led media sources to speculate that a wealthy candidate could run a competitive self-funded campaign, akin to Rick Caruso's campaign in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election.[66] This scenario seemed to come to pass when former Google executive Lexi Reese joined the race in June 2023; her aides told Politico she would spend a "significant" amount of her own money on her campaign.[67] However, Reese made little impact on the race and dropped out months later; though she raised $2 million, much of it self-funded, she wrote that this was "just not enough to run a state-wide campaign."[15]

Throughout most of 2023, there were no prominent Republicans in the race. This has been attributed to California's heavy Democratic lean and Republican donors' wariness of the high cost of running a statewide campaign in California; GOP strategist Duane Dichiara estimated that a Republican would need at least $80 million to run a viable Senate campaign. Additionally, California's top-two primary system may allow two Democrats to advance to the general election, a scenario that played out in the 2016 and 2018 Senate races, though the three-way division in the 2024 Democratic field could help a Republican reach the general election. Republicans would also benefit from the fact that the 2024 California Republican presidential primary, held on the same day as the Senate primary, was expected to be hotly contested and entice Republican voters to turn out in higher numbers.[43][40]

Feinstein's death and replacement

[edit]

Feinstein faced calls to resign throughout 2023 due to reports of her declining health, including from U.S. Representative Ro Khanna. She declined to do so.[68] California governor Gavin Newsom had previously committed to appointing a black woman to the Senate if a seat opened up, after facing controversy due to appointing Alex Padilla to the seat left behind by Kamala Harris after she was elected vice president.[69] Possible appointees speculated by media sources included Barbara Lee, Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass, San Francisco mayor London Breed, Los Angeles County supervisor Holly Mitchell, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, and talk show host Oprah Winfrey, though Bass, Mitchell, and Winfrey said they would not be interested.[69][70] In September 2023, Newsom confirmed he would fulfill his promise to appoint a black woman, but said he would not appoint any candidate running to succeed Feinstein, and would instead appoint someone who committed not to run for a full term. Lee, the only black woman in the race, responded, "the idea that a Black woman should be appointed only as a caretaker to simply check a box is insulting to countless Black women across this country who have carried the Democratic Party to victory election after election."[71] Lee faced backlash for her comments, with several advisors to Newsom leaving her super PAC.[72] Newsom argued that the question of a Senate vacancy was "a hypothetical on top of a hypothetical," believing that Feinstein would not leave office before her term ended.[73]

Feinstein died later that month, on September 29, 2023.[74] Newsom was expected to quickly appoint a successor, as a crisis over a potential government shutdown necessitated a united Democratic front in the Senate. A special election for Feinstein's seat will also be held concurrently with the regular 2024 election.[75] In addition to those already mentioned, possible successors speculated by media sources included PolicyLink founder Angela Glover Blackwell, former state assemblywoman Autumn Burke, EMILYs List director Laphonza Butler, State Controller Malia Cohen, California Supreme Court justice Leondra Kruger, Bay Area Rapid Transit Board of Directors president Lateefah Simon, and U.S. Representative Maxine Waters.[76][77][78][79][80] Waters and California State Board of Education president Linda Darling-Hammond said they were not interested in the appointment.[78] Congressional Black Caucus chair Steven Horsford sent a letter to Newsom on behalf of the caucus that urged him to appoint Lee.[81]

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (right) swears in Laphonza Butler (left)

On October 1, Newsom appointed Butler to the Senate, with no conditions about whether she may run in 2024.[82] Butler formerly served as president of SEIU Local 2015, the largest union in California, and on the University of California Board of Regents. She is openly lesbian, making her California's first openly LGBTQ Senator and the first openly LGBTQ black woman to serve in Congress.[83] Butler's appointment was controversial, with many pointing out that she was registered to vote in Maryland at the time. Butler responded that she lived in California for many years before moving to the D.C. metropolitan area in 2021; she pointed out that she still owned a home in Los Angeles and promised to re-register in California.[84] Butler was also criticized for advising Uber as it lobbied against a 2019 California bill to classify rideshare drivers as employees. In response, she maintained that she personally supported the bill.[85] At first, Butler left open the question of whether she would run for a full term, but on October 19, she said she would not join the 2024 race, neither in the special election to fill out the final two months of Feinstein's term, nor in the general election for the 119th Congress.[21][86]

Later events in 2023

[edit]

On October 10, 2023, Republicans gained a prominent candidate when former professional baseball player Steve Garvey entered the race. Garvey, who played for both the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres, was considered to have an advantage in name recognition. Two other Republican candidates, healthcare executive James Bradley and attorney Eric Early, both of whom had previously made several unsuccessful bids for office, also attracted some media attention and support in polls.[33] Schiff and Porter consistently led in polling throughout the race, with Lee and the Republicans far behind. Lee's poor polling numbers was attributed to a lack of name recognition outside her San Francisco Bay Area constituency, her lack of fundraising compared to Schiff and Porter, and the fact that Schiff and Porter had prior national fame while Lee was less well-known. In November 2023, Lee ruled out withdrawing from the race and insisted she still had a chance.[87] Lee's campaign became much more willing to openly criticize her two main rivals, attempting to define Lee as the most progressive candidate in the race.[72]

On November 18, 2023, the California Democratic Party held its endorsing convention for the Senate race. Lee received the most delegate votes, narrowly outpacing Schiff; however, neither candidate came close to reaching the 60% threshold necessary to win the endorsement.[88] Rumors had circulated that Lee would drop out of the race and run for re-election to the House if she did not receive the party's endorsement, but her campaign reiterated after the convention that she intended on staying in the Senate race.[89]

California Democratic Party Senate endorsement vote (60% required)[90]
Candidate Regular election Special election
Votes % Result Votes % Result
Barbara Lee 963 41.47% No endorsement 958 41.26% No endorsement
Adam Schiff 933 40.18% 927 39.92%
Katie Porter 373 16.06% 361 15.59%
Lexi Reese 3 0.13% 2 0.09%
Don't endorse 50 2.15% 67 2.89%
Total 2,322 100.00% 2,315 100.00%

The 2023 Israel–Hamas war became a late issue in the race, with Lee initially being the only major candidate to call for a ceasefire. The California Democratic Party convention was disrupted by pro-Palestine protests calling for a ceasefire. Protestors entered the main convention arena and shouted, interrupting speeches by Schiff, Porter, and Lexi Reese. Some reportedly chanted the slogan "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free."[91] While the protest was initially peaceful, it later escalated, with over 1,000 protestors entering the building. Police locked down the building and the rest of the scheduled events that day were cancelled.[92] Porter would later call for a ceasefire the following month.[93]

Final months of the primary

[edit]
A 2024 primary ballot showing both U.S. Senate elections

In the months after his announcement, Garvey steadily rose in polling, heightening Republicans' odds of getting a candidate through to the general election.[94] Garvey largely avoided taking positions on political issues, spent no money on television ads, and did little in-person campaigning.[95] In the new year, Schiff's campaign began airing television ads that contrasted his positions with Garvey's. Porter accused Schiff of trying to prevent her from reaching the general election by boosting Garvey; she alleged that the ads, which labeled Garvey as too conservative, were intended to enamor Garvey to Republican voters. Due to the nonpartisan blanket primary, it is a common tactic for front-running candidates to boost the second place candidate whom they feel they can defeat most easily; Schiff's campaign denied that this was his intention.[96] Supporters of Schiff also independently purchased a similar anti-Garvey ad which ran on Fox News, despite Schiff previously calling for a boycott of the network.[97] Porter later began airing similar ads against another Republican, Eric Early. These ads were seen as an effort to split the Republican vote and help Porter clinch the second general election spot, though Porter denied this.[98]

Politico, FOX 11 Los Angeles, and USC Dornsife held a debate on January 22, 2024, which included Schiff, Porter, Lee, and Garvey.[99] The debate largely consisted of the Democrats attacking Garvey for his past support of Trump and questioning Garvey's support of him in 2024, and the differing viewpoints of the four in the Israel-Hamas war. The stance of all candidates towards congressional earmarks, which Porter strongly opposes, also was a key topic.[100]

Nexstar Media Group television stations aired a debate on February 12 featuring the same four candidates.[101] Key highlights include the candidates being asked whether they would support certifying the election should a candidate of the other party win the presidency, rising crime, the minimum wage, corporate donations in political campaigns, and the federal role in housing.[102][103]

KNBC and KVEA aired a debate in conjunction with Loyola Marymount University on February 20, which was broadcast on NBCUniversal-owned stations statewide and on KCRA, Sacramento's NBC affiliate.[104] Topics included the minimum wage, the federal budget deficit, military spending, the Mexico–United States border crisis, climate change, extending the life of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, and the proposed regulation of artificial intelligence.[105]

Endorsements

[edit]
James Bradley (R)

Political parties

Eric Early (R)

Organizations

Political parties

Steve Garvey (R)

U.S. representatives

Local officials

Newspapers

Labor unions

Barbara Lee (D)

Statewide officials

U.S. representatives

State legislators

County officials

Mayors in California

Local officials

Other state representatives

Party officials

Individuals

Political parties

Labor unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Gail Lightfoot (L)

Political parties

Katie Porter (D)

Statewide officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

State assemblymembers

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Labor unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Mark Ruzon (ASP)

Political parties

Adam Schiff (D)

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

County officials

Mayors in California

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Labor unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Laphonza Butler (D) (declined to run)

Local officials

Declined to endorse

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Political parties

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[x] 		Margin
of error 		James
Bradley (R) 		Eric
Early (R) 		Steve
Garvey (R) 		Barbara
Lee (D) 		Katie
Porter (D) 		Adam
Schiff (D) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[244][A] February 24–27, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 2% 20% 8% 17% 28% 6%[y] 17%
UC Berkeley IGS[245][B] February 22–26, 2024 3,304 (LV) ± 2.0% 2% 2% 27% 8% 19% 25% 8% 9%
WPA Intelligence (R)[246][C] February 19–21, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% – 4% 24% 10% 15% 27% 3%[z] 17%
Emerson College[247] February 16–18, 2024 935 (LV) ± 3.1% 2% 2% 22% 9% 16% 28% 2%[aa] 17%
Public Policy Institute
of California[248] 		February 6–13, 2024 1,066 (LV) ± 3.9% 3% 4% 18% 10% 19% 24% 14%[ab] 6%
USC Dornsife/CSU Long Beach/
Cal Poly Pomona[249] 		January 21–29, 2024 1,416 (LV) ± 2.6% 1% 1% 15% 7% 15% 26% 2%[ac] 29%
Emerson College[250] January 11–14, 2024 1,087 (LV) ± 2.9% 2% 3% 18% 8% 13% 25% 5%[ad] 24%
UC Berkeley IGS[251] January 4–8, 2024 4,470 (LV) ± 2.0% 3% 3% 13% 9% 17% 21% 13%[ae] 21%
Morning Consult[252][D] December 15–19, 2023 858 (LV) ± 3.0% 5% 4% 15% 12% 14% 26% 4%[af] 19%
SurveyUSA[253] December 7–10, 2023 590 (LV) ± 5.0% 5% 6% 15% 12% 12% 22% 8%[ag] 20%
Public Policy Institute
of California[254] 		November 9–16, 2023 1,113 (LV) ± 3.2% – – 10% 8% 16% 21% 27% 14%
Emerson College[255][E] November 11–14, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 3% 2% 10% 9% 13% 16% 8%[ah] 39%
UC Berkeley IGS[256][B] October 24–30, 2023 4,506 (LV) ± 2.5% 7% 4% 10% 9% 17% 16% 7%[ai] 30%
Public Policy Institute
of California[257] 		October 3–19, 2023 1,395 (LV) ± 4.0% 5% 6% – 9% 18% 21% 32%[aj] 8%
Data Viewpoint[258] October 1, 2023 533 (RV) ± 4.3% 6% 4% – 6% 19% 19% 13.5%[ak] 32%
Public Policy Institute
of California[259] 		August 25 –
September 5, 2023 		1,146 (LV) ± 3.7% 5% 5% – 8% 15% 20% 31%[al] 16%
UC Berkeley IGS[260] August 24–29, 2023 4,579 (LV) ± 2.5% 7% 5% 7% 7% 17% 20% 12%[am] 32%
Public Policy Institute
of California[261] 		June 7–29, 2023 1,092 (LV) ± 3.8% 6% 7% – 13% 19% 16% 33%[an] 6%
Emerson College[262] June 4–7, 2023 1,056 (RV) ± 2.9% 6% 3% – 6% 14% 15% 9%[ao] 47%
UC Berkeley IGS[263] May 17–22, 2023 5,236 (LV) ± 2.5% – 18% – 9% 17% 14% 10% 32%
FM3 Research (D)[264][F] May 13–21, 2023 1,380 (LV) ± 4.0% – 27% – 11% 24% 21% 17%
UC Berkeley IGS[265] February 14–20, 2023 7,512 (RV) ± 2.5% – – – 8% 20% 23% 10% 39%
Hypothetical polling

Ro Khanna vs. Barbara Lee vs. Katie Porter vs. Adam Schiff

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[x] 		Margin
of error 		Ro
Khanna (D) 		Barbara
Lee (D) 		Katie
Porter (D) 		Adam
Schiff (D) 		Other Undecided
UC Berkeley IGS[265] February 14–20, 2023 7,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 4% 6% 20% 22% 9% 39%
David Binder Research[266] November 19–21, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 9% 30% 29% 9%[ap] 17%

With vs. without Steve Garvey

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[x] 		Margin
of error 		James
Bradley (R) 		Eric
Early (R) 		Steve
Garvey (R) 		Barbara
Lee (D) 		Katie
Porter (D) 		Lexie
Reese (D) 		Adam
Schiff (D) 		Other Undecided
UC Berkeley IGS[260] Aug 24–29, 2023 3,113 (LV) ± 2.5% 7% 5% 7% 7% 17% 1% 20% 4% 32%
10% 7% – 7% 17% 1% 20% 4% 34%

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024[aq]
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
James Bradley (R) $182,626 $152,659 $30,052
Eric Early (R) $898,233[ar] $893,719 $4,514
Steve Garvey (R) $5,528,359 $3,921,776 $1,606,583
Denice Gary-Pandol (R) $129,324 $128,482 $842
Sarah Sun Liew (R) $48,420 $24,977 $6,240
Barbara Lee (D) $5,423,501 $5,093,171 $330,330
Christina Pascucci (D) $456,534 $456,534 $0
Katie Porter (D) $31,536,915 $30,960,241 $576,674
Perry Pound (D) $34,129 $29,350 $4,778
Lexi Reese (D)[as] $2,016,597 $1,810,020 $206,577
Adam Schiff (D) $35,146,126 $51,348,262 $4,820,824
Source: Federal Election Commission[267]

Debates

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in California primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Steve Garvey Barbara Lee Katie Porter Adam Schiff
1 Jan 22, 2024 California Environmental Voters
Education Fund, KFI, KTTV, Politico,
USC Dornsife Center 		Melanie Mason
Elex Michaelson 		YouTube P P P P
2 Feb 12, 2024 Nexstar Media Group stations:
KTLA, KSWB-TV, KRON-TV,
KTXL, KSEE, KGET-TV 		Frank Buckley
Nikki Laurenzo 		YouTube P P P P
3 Feb 20, 2024 Loyola Marymount University
KNBC / KVEA 		Colleen Williams
Conan Nolan
Alejandra Ortiz 		YouTube P P P P

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Schiff
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Garvey
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%

Schiff and Garvey advanced in both regular and special primaries, albeit with different results. Schiff narrowly secured the first place in the regular primary with just 0.05% of the vote over Garvey, but fell short of it in the special one by 4%. However, the three leading Democrats overall performed better in the special primary, with 58.2% of the vote compared to 56.7%.[268][269]

Candidates' vote share by county
Schiff (top-left), Garvey (top-right)
Porter (bottom-left), Lee (bottom-right)
Regular blanket primary results[270]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Adam Schiff 2,304,829 31.57%
Republican Steve Garvey 2,301,351 31.52%
Democratic Katie Porter 1,118,429 15.32%
Democratic Barbara Lee 717,129 9.82%
Republican Eric Early 242,055 3.32%
Republican James Bradley 98,778 1.35%
Democratic Christina Pascucci 61,998 0.85%
Republican Sharleta Bassett 54,884 0.75%
Republican Sarah Sun Liew 38,718 0.53%
No party preference Laura Garza[b] 34,529 0.47%
Republican Jonathan Reiss 34,400 0.47%
Democratic Sepi Gilani 34,316 0.47%
Libertarian Gail Lightfoot 33,295 0.46%
Republican Denice Gary-Pandol 25,649 0.35%
Republican James Macauley 23,296 0.32%
Democratic Harmesh Kumar 21,624 0.30%
Democratic David Peterson 21,170 0.29%
Democratic Douglas Pierce 19,458 0.27%
No party preference Major Singh 17,092 0.23%
Democratic John Rose 14,627 0.20%
Democratic Perry Pound 14,195 0.19%
Democratic Raji Rab 13,640 0.19%
No party preference Mark Ruzon[d] 13,488 0.18%
American Independent Forrest Jones 13,140 0.18%
Republican Stefan Simchowitz 12,773 0.17%
Republican Martin Veprauskas 9,795 0.13%
No party preference Don Grundmann[c] 6,641 0.09%
No party preference Michael Dilger (write-in) 7 0.00%
Republican Carlos Guillermo Tapia (write-in) 5 0.00%
No party preference John Dowell (write-in) 3 0.00%
Republican Danny Fabricant (write-in) 3 0.00%
Total votes 7,301,317 100.0%
Results by county
  Schiff
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Garvey
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Special blanket primary results[270]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Garvey 2,455,115 33.25%
Democratic Adam Schiff 2,160,171 29.25%
Democratic Katie Porter 1,272,684 17.24%
Democratic Barbara Lee 866,551 11.74%
Republican Eric Early 451,274 6.11%
Democratic Christina Pascucci 109,867 1.49%
Democratic Sepi Gilani 68,497 0.93%
No party preference Michael Dilger (write-in) 27 0.00%
Total votes 7,384,186 100.0%

Maps

[edit]
Other election maps
  • Top three Democrats' results by county in the regular primary
    Top three Democrats' results by county in the regular primary
  • Top three Democrats' results by county in the special primary
    Top three Democrats' results by county in the special primary
  • Best Democrat's performance by county in the regular primary (blue for Schiff, green for Porter)
    Best Democrat's performance by county in the regular primary (blue for Schiff, green for Porter)
  • Best Democrat's performance by county in the special primary (blue for Schiff, green for Porter)
    Best Democrat's performance by county in the special primary (blue for Schiff, green for Porter)
  • Early's results by county in the regular primary
    Early's results by county in the regular primary
  • Early's results by county in the special primary
    Early's results by county in the special primary

Aftermath

[edit]

After her loss, Porter remarked that the election was "rigged by billionaires," referring to a $10 million independent ad campaign attacking her that was funded by cryptocurrency supporters.[271] Porter's use of the word "rigged" was criticized, with some comparing her statement to Donald Trump's false claims of fraud in the 2020 election. Porter expressed regret for use of the word "rigged" and said that she meant to say that the election was "manipulated by dishonest means" which was a reference to the use of dark money in campaign financing, and not to mean that there was anything illegitimate about the vote counting.[272][273]

General elections

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[274] Solid D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[275] Solid D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[276] Safe D November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[277] Safe D June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[278] Safe D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[279] Solid D November 21, 2023
Split Ticket[280] Solid D October 23, 2024
538[281] Solid D October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Adam Schiff (D)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Individuals

Labor unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Steve Garvey (R)

Political parties

Daily newspapers

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Adam Schiff (D) $39,349,181 $53,898,876 $6,473,265
Steve Garvey (R) $10,968,989 $7,678,945 $3,290,044
Source: Federal Election Commission[267]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Adam
Schiff (D) 		Steve
Garvey (R) 		Undecided
[at] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[292] through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 58.6% 35.4% 6.0% Schiff +23.2%
270toWin[293] September 30 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 56.4% 34.6% 9.0% Schiff +21.8%
RealClearPolitics[294] August 29 – October 14, 2024 October 21, 2024 57.3% 34.7% 8.0% Schiff +22.6%
TheHill/DDHQ[295] through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 58.4% 36.3% 5.3% Schiff +22.1%
Average 57.7% 35.3% 7.1% Schiff +22.4%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[x] 		Margin
of error 		Adam
Schiff (D) 		Steve
Garvey (R) 		Other Undecided
Research Co.[296] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 60% 37% – 4%
Competitive Edge Research[297] October 28–30, 2024 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 52% 42% – 6%
Cygnal (R)[298] October 27–30, 2024 611 (LV) ± 4.0% 60% 36% – 4%
UC Berkeley[299] October 22–28, 2024 4,341 (LV) ± 2.0% 55% 34% – 11%
ActiVote[300] October 6–27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 39% – –
ActiVote[301] October 1–18, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 63% 34% –
YouGov[302][G] October 7–17, 2024 1,139 (RV) ± 3.38% 56% 35% – 9%
Public Policy Institute of California[303] October 7–15, 2024 1,137 (LV) ± 3.7% 63% 37% – –
Emerson College[304][H] October 12–14, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 56% 33% – 11%
UC Berkeley[305] September 25 – October 1, 2024 3,045 LV) ± 2.5% 53% 36% – 11%
USC/CSULB/Cal Poly Pomona[306] September 12–25, 2024 1,685 (LV) ± 2.4% 56% 37% 1%[au] 6%
ActiVote[307] August 13 – September 21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 63% 37% – –
Public Policy Institute of California[308] August 29 – September 9, 2024 1,071 (LV) ± 3.7% 63% 35% 1%[av] 1%
Emerson College[309][A] September 3–5, 2024 815 (LV) ± 3.4% 55% 33% – 13%
ActiVote[310] July 16 – August 12, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 66% 34% – –
UC Berkeley[311][B] July 31 – August 11, 2024 3,765 (LV) ± 2.0% 53% 33% – 14%
Public Policy Institute of California[312] June 24 – July 2, 2024 1,261 (LV) ± 3.7% 64% 33% – 3%
Public Policy Institute of California[313] May 23 – June 2, 2024 1,098 (LV) ± 3.9% 62% 37% – 1%
Public Policy Institute of California[314] March 19–25, 2024 1,089 (LV) ± 3.9% 61% 37% – 2%
UC Berkeley[315][B] February 22–26, 2024 3,304 (LV) ± 2.0% 53% 38% – 9%
Hypothetical polling

Katie Porter vs. Adam Schiff

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[x] 		Margin
of error 		Katie
Porter (D) 		Adam
Schiff (D) 		Undecided
UC Berkeley[315][B] February 22–26, 2024 3,304 (LV) ± 2.0% 30% 30% 40%
David Binder Research[266] November 19–21, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 26% 37%[aw]

Katie Porter vs. Steve Garvey

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[x] 		Margin
of error 		Katie
Porter (D) 		Steve
Garvey (R) 		Undecided
UC Berkeley[315][B] February 22–26, 2024 3,304 (LV) ± 2.0% 52% 38% 10%

Debate

[edit]

Only one debate was held between Garvey and Schiff.[316]

2024 United States Senate election in California debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Steve Garvey Adam Schiff
1 October 8, 2024 League of Women Voters of California /
ABC Owned Television Stations
(KABC-TV, KGO-TV, KFSN-TV) /
Univision KMEX-DT 		Marc Brown
Kristen Sze
Warren Armstrong
Gabriela Teissier 		YouTube P P

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate special election in California[317]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Adam Schiff 8,837,051 58.75% N/A
Republican Steve Garvey 6,204,637 41.25% N/A
Total votes 15,041,688 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
2024 United States Senate election in California[317]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Adam Schiff 9,036,052 58.87% N/A
Republican Steve Garvey 6,312,594 41.13% N/A
Total votes 15,348,846 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ In October 2023, Butler was appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator Dianne Feinstein.
  2. ^ a b Garza is a member of the Socialist Workers Party, but ran as No Party Preference because the Socialist Workers Party did not have ballot access in California.[42]
  3. ^ a b Grundmann is a member of the Constitution Party, but ran as No Party Preference because the Constitution Party did not have ballot access in California
  4. ^ a b Ruzon is a member of the American Solidarity Party, but ran as No Party Preference because the American Solidarity Party did not have ballot access in California.[11]
  5. ^ Schwarzenegger is a Republican, but media speculated that he might run as an independent candidate.
  6. ^ a b Co-endorsement with Porter
  7. ^ a b Co-endorsement with Schiff
  8. ^ Her campaign co-chair
  9. ^ Brown publicly stated he wished for Schiff, Porter, and Lee to withdraw and endorse Butler's potential bid; however, Butler declined to run for a full term.
  10. ^ No party preference
  11. ^ a b c Co-endorsement with Porter and Schiff
  12. ^ Affiliate of Our Revolution
  13. ^ a b c d e Co-endorsement with Lee
  14. ^ a b c Co-endorsement with Lee and Schiff
  15. ^ North Orange County Community College District Adjunct Facility United
  16. ^ a b c Co-endorsement with Lee and Porter
  17. ^ International and California Conference Boards
  18. ^ California State Council, District 2, and Local 80
  19. ^ And California Professional Firefighters
  20. ^ California State Association and 13 locals
  21. ^ California, Joint Councils 7 and 42, and Locals 399 and 856
  22. ^ California-Nevada State Council and Locals 3, 12, and 501
  23. ^ National, Southwest Mountain States Regional Council, and Northern California Regional Council
  24. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  25. ^ Christina Pascucci (D) and Sarah Sun Liew (R) with 2%, Jonathan Reiss (R) and "someone else" with 1%
  26. ^ "Other candidates" with 3%
  27. ^ Christina Pascucci (D) with 2%
  28. ^ Sarah Sun Liew (R) with 2%; Denice Gary-Pandol (R), Jonathan Reiss (R), Christina Pasucci (D), David Peterson (D), Douglas H. Pierce (D), Sharleta Bassett (R), James Macauley (R), Forrest Jones (AI), Gail Lightfoot (L), Laura Garza (NPP), Don J. Grundmann (C), "someone else" with 1%; Raji Rab (D), John David Rose (D), Major Singh (NPP), Perry Pound (D), Mark Ruzon (ASP), Sepi Gilani (D), Harmesh Kumar (D), Stefan Simchowitz (R), Martin Veprauskas (R), "would not vote for U.S. Senator" with 0%
  29. ^ Jessica Resendez (D) with 1%; "All other individual candidates with 1%
  30. ^ Christina Pascucci (D) with 2%; Jonathan Reiss (R) with 1%; Sarah Sun Liew (R) with 1%; Someone else with 1%
  31. ^ Sharleta Bassett (R) with 3%; Jonathan Reiss (R) with 2%; "All others (each with 1% or more)" with 8%
  32. ^ Christina Pascucci (D) with 3%; Denise Gary-Pandol (R) with 1%
  33. ^ Christina Pascucci (D) with 5%; Jonathan Reiss (R), Lexi Reese (D) & "Other" with 1%
  34. ^ Christina Pascucci (D), Lexi Reese (D) & "Someone else" with 2%; Sarah Sun Liew (R) & Jonathan Reiss (R) with 1%
  35. ^ "Others" with 5%; Lexie Reese (D) & Christina Pascucci (D) with 1%
  36. ^ "Someone else" with 12%; Barack Mandela (R), Sarah Sun Liew (R), Jonathan Reiss (R) & Jessica Resendez (D) with 2%; Paul Anderson (G), Dana Bobbit (I), Joshua Bocanegra (D), Danny Fabricant (R), Jeremy Fennell (D), Frank Ferreira (I), Roxanne Lawler (R), John Poppenheim (R), Raji Rab (D), Lexi Reese (D), Katie Roederscheimer (I) & John Rose (D) with 1%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Fepbrina Autiameineire (O), Jacob Farmos (D), Carson Franklin (D), Dian Foxington (D), Denice Gary-Pandol (R), Jehu Hand (R), Denard Ingram (D), Zakaira Kortam (R) & "Would not vote" with 0%
  37. ^ Sarah Sun Liew (R) with 3%; Several other candidates with <2%
  38. ^ Barack Mandela, Jonathan Reiss, Jessica Resendez and "Someone else" with 3%; Roxanne Lawler, John Pappenheim, Katie Roedersheimer, and Sarah Sun Liew with 2%; Akinyemi Agbede, Paul Anderson, Dana Bobbit, Joshua Bocanegra, Danny Fabricant, Jacob Farmos, Frank Ferreria, Denise Gary-Pandol, Zakaira Kortam, Lexi Reese, John Rose, and "Would not vote" with 1%; Fepbrina Autiameineire, Jeremy Fennell, Dian Foxington, Carson Franklin, Jehu Hand, Denard Ingram, and Raji Rab with 0%
  39. ^ Lexie Reese (D) with 1%; "Others" with 4%
  40. ^ Sarah Sun Liew with 5%; Jonathan Reiss with 4%; Frank Ferreria and "Someone else" with 3%; Joshua Bocanegra, Danny Fabricant, Roxanne Lawler, Raji Rab, and Jessica Resendez with 2%; Akinyemi Agbede, Jacob Farmos, Jeremy Fennell, Denise Gary-Pandol, Denard Ingram, and Jehu Hand with 1%
  41. ^ Jessica Resendez with 3%; Douglas Howard Pierce with 2%; Frank Ferreria, Denise Gary-Pandol, Roxanne Lawler, Raji Rab, Jonathan Reiss, and "Someone else" with 1%
  42. ^ "Generic Republican" with 9%
  43. ^ Due to the large number of candidates in the race, only those with more than $25,000 raised are included in this table
  44. ^ $204,200 of this total was self-funded by Early
  45. ^ Withdrawn candidate
  46. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  47. ^ "Skip Election" with 1%
  48. ^ "Wouldn't vote for US Senator" with 1%
  49. ^ Includes "Would not vote" at 19%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Hill
  2. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by the Los Angeles Times
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Garvey's campaign
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Politico
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by Lee's campaign
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Inside California Politics

References

[edit]
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  238. ^ "DMFI PAC endorses Adam Schiff for California Senate seat". DMFI PAC. January 16, 2024. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
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  240. ^ Logan, Erin (January 18, 2024). "California's newest senator, Laphonza Butler, on Trump, Gaza and her future". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
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  256. ^ UC Berkeley IGS
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  258. ^ Data Viewpoint
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  260. ^ a b UC Berkeley IGS
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  264. ^ FM3 Research (D)
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  266. ^ a b David Binder Research
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  300. ^ ActiVote
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  302. ^ YouGov
  303. ^ Public Policy Institute of California
  304. ^ Emerson College
  305. ^ UC Berkeley
  306. ^ USC/CSULB/Cal Poly Pomona
  307. ^ ActiVote
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  309. ^ Emerson College
  310. ^ ActiVote
  311. ^ UC Berkeley
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  313. ^ Public Policy Institute of California
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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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