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The Nunes memo falsely asserted that "Comey briefed President-elect Trump on a summary of the Steele dossier, even though it was — according to his June 2017 testimony — 'salacious and unverified.'" Factcheckers noted that Comey actually testified he informed Trump that "some personally sensitive aspects of the information" were "salacious and unverified," rather than the entire dossier.<ref name="Jacobson_2/5/2018">{{cite web | last=Jacobson | first=Louis | title=Nunes memo twists James Comey's words on Steele dossier | website=[[PolitiFact]] | date=February 5, 2018 | url=http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/feb/05/devin-nunes/nunes-memo-twists-james-comeys-words-steele-dossie/ | access-date=April 23, 2018}}</ref><ref name="Kiely_6/7/2017">{{cite web | last=Kiely | first=Eugene | title=Timeline of Russia Investigation | website=[[FactCheck]] | date=June 7, 2017 | url=https://www.factcheck.org/2017/06/timeline-russia-investigation/ | access-date=April 24, 2018}}</ref>
The Nunes memo falsely asserted that "Comey briefed President-elect Trump on a summary of the Steele dossier, even though it was — according to his June 2017 testimony — 'salacious and unverified.'" Factcheckers noted that Comey actually testified he informed Trump that "some personally sensitive aspects of the information" were "salacious and unverified," rather than the entire dossier.<ref name="Jacobson_2/5/2018">{{cite web | last=Jacobson | first=Louis | title=Nunes memo twists James Comey's words on Steele dossier | website=[[PolitiFact]] | date=February 5, 2018 | url=http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/feb/05/devin-nunes/nunes-memo-twists-james-comeys-words-steele-dossie/ | access-date=April 23, 2018}}</ref><ref name="Kiely_6/7/2017">{{cite web | last=Kiely | first=Eugene | title=Timeline of Russia Investigation | website=[[FactCheck]] | date=June 7, 2017 | url=https://www.factcheck.org/2017/06/timeline-russia-investigation/ | access-date=April 24, 2018}}</ref>


The Nunes memo asserted that [[Andrew McCabe]] testified to the House Intelligence Committee that "no surveillance warrant [of [[Carter Page]]] would have been sought from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) without the Steele dossier information," but because McCabe testified in classified session, no transcript has yet been released to verify this assertion. McCabe responded that his testimony was "selectively quoted" and "mischaracterized." Congressman [[Eric Swalwell]], a member of the Committee, also stated that McCabe's testimony was mischaracterized.<ref name="Brown_Jarrett_3/17/2018">{{cite web | last=Brown | first=Pamela | last2=Jarrett | first2=Laura | title=McCabe says Republicans 'mischaracterized' his testimony on Trump dossier | website=[[CNN]] | date=March 17, 2018 | url=https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/16/politics/mccabe-republicans-trump-dossier/index.html | access-date=April 24, 2018}}</ref><ref name="Hains_2/2/2018">{{cite web | last=Hains | first=Tim | url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/02/02/rep_swalwell_nunes_memo_misquotes_mccabes_statement_about_steele_dossierfisa_warrant.html | date=February 2, 2018 | title=Rep. Swalwell: Nunes Memo Misquotes McCabe's Statement About Steele Dossier/FISA Warrant | website=[[RealClearPolitics]] | accessdate=April 23, 2018}}</ref>
The Nunes memo asserted that [[Andrew McCabe]] testified to the House Intelligence Committee that "no surveillance warrant [of [[Carter Page]]] would have been sought from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) without the Steele dossier information," but because McCabe testified in classified session, no transcript has yet been released to verify this assertion. McCabe responded that his testimony was "selectively quoted" and "mischaracterized." Congressman [[Eric Swalwell]], a member of the Committee, also stated that McCabe's testimony was mischaracterized.<ref name="Brown_Jarrett_3/17/2018">{{cite web | last=Brown | first=Pamela | last2=Jarrett | first2=Laura | title=McCabe says Republicans 'mischaracterized' his testimony on Trump dossier | website=[[CNN]] | date=March 17, 2018 | url=https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/16/politics/mccabe-republicans-trump-dossier/index.html | access-date=April 24, 2018}}</ref><ref name="Hains_2/2/2018">{{cite web | last=Hains | first=Tim | url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/02/02/rep_swalwell_nunes_memo_misquotes_mccabes_statement_about_steele_dossierfisa_warrant.html | date=February 2, 2018 | title=Rep. Swalwell: Nunes Memo Misquotes McCabe's Statement About Steele Dossier/FISA Warrant | website=[[RealClearPolitics]] | accessdate=April 23, 2018}}</ref>

An April 18, 2018 letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions signed by several House Republicans referred James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Sally Yates, Dana Boente for criminal investigation related to use of the unverified information in the dossier in a FISA warrant on Carter Page. Hillary Clinton was named for failing to properly disclose payments to Fusion GPS in violation of Federal Election Commission law.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://desantis.house.gov/_cache/files/8/0/8002ca75-52fc-4995-b87e-43584da268db/472EBC7D8F55C0F9E830D37CF96376A2.final-criminal-referral.pdf|title=Criminal Referral Letter to Sessions, Wray and Huber|publisher=|accessdate=April 27, 2018}}</ref>


Contrary to assertions by Trump and his supporters that the FBI investigation into [[Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections]] was triggered by the dossier, the Nunes memo confirmed the investigation began with a tip from Australian diplomat [[Alexander Downer]] regarding a conversation he had with Trump foreign policy adviser [[George Papadopoulos]] in a London bar in May 2016.<ref name="LaFraniere_Mazzetti_Apuzzo_12/30/2017"/><ref name="Lucas_2/2/2018">{{cite web | last=Lucas | first=Ryan | url=https://www.npr.org/2018/02/02/582713363/memo-russian-overtures-to-trump-aide-triggered-fbi-investigation | date=February 2, 2018 | title=Nunes Memo: What's In It And What's Not | publisher=[[NPR]] | accessdate=April 23, 2018}}</ref>
Contrary to assertions by Trump and his supporters that the FBI investigation into [[Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections]] was triggered by the dossier, the Nunes memo confirmed the investigation began with a tip from Australian diplomat [[Alexander Downer]] regarding a conversation he had with Trump foreign policy adviser [[George Papadopoulos]] in a London bar in May 2016.<ref name="LaFraniere_Mazzetti_Apuzzo_12/30/2017"/><ref name="Lucas_2/2/2018">{{cite web | last=Lucas | first=Ryan | url=https://www.npr.org/2018/02/02/582713363/memo-russian-overtures-to-trump-aide-triggered-fbi-investigation | date=February 2, 2018 | title=Nunes Memo: What's In It And What's Not | publisher=[[NPR]] | accessdate=April 23, 2018}}</ref>

Revision as of 03:28, 28 April 2018

The Trump–Russia dossier, also known as the Steele dossier,[1] is a private intelligence report comprising 17 memos that were written from June to December 2016[2] by Christopher Steele, a former head of the Russia Desk for British intelligence (MI6). It contains allegations of misconduct and conspiracy between Donald Trump's presidential campaign and the Government of Russia during the 2016 election cycle. Campaign members and Russian operatives allegedly colluded to interfere in the election and benefit Trump.[3] The dossier was published in full by BuzzFeed on January 10, 2017.[4] Several mainstream media outlets criticized BuzzFeed's decision to release it.[5][6]

A private investigative firm, Fusion GPS, provided political opposition research against Trump in two distinct phases, with completely separate funders. Fusion GPS was first contracted by a conservative political website, The Washington Free Beacon, and Steele was not involved in that research. When Trump became the presumptive nominee on May 3, 2016, The Free Beacon stopped their backing. Separately, in April 2016, attorney Marc Elias hired Fusion GPS to investigate Trump on behalf of Hillary Clinton's campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). In June 2016, Fusion GPS subcontracted Steele to research and compile the dossier; senior Clinton campaign officials were reportedly unaware that Fusion GPS had subcontracted with Steele, and Steele was not told the Clinton campaign was the ultimate recipient of his research.[7][8] Following Trump's election as president, funding from Clinton and the DNC ceased, but Steele continued his research, and was reportedly paid directly by Glenn R. Simpson, a co-founder of Fusion GPS.[9] The completed dossier was then handed to British and American intelligence services.[10] Weeks before the 2016 election, on the basis of Steele's reputation working on Russia-related matters for nearly 20 years, the FBI reached an agreement to pay Steele to continue his work; the agreement was later terminated as information about the dossier became public.[11]

Some of the dossier's allegations have been corroborated, while others remain unverified[12] and may require access to classified information for verification.[13] The media, the intelligence community, and most experts have treated the dossier with caution, while Trump himself denounced the report as "fake news". In February 2017, some details related to conversations "solely between foreign nationals" were independently verified. Some of those individuals were known to be "heavily involved" in efforts to damage Clinton and help Trump. The conversations "took place between the same individuals on the same days and from the same locations as detailed in the dossier", giving US intelligence and law enforcement "greater confidence" in the credibility of parts of the document.[14]

History

There were two phases of political opposition research performed against Trump, both using the services of Fusion GPS, but with completely separate funders. Only the second phase, which was funded by the DNC and the Hillary Clinton campaign, produced the Steele dossier.[15][16]

Research funded by conservative website

In October 2015, before the official start of the 2016 Republican primary campaign, The Washington Free Beacon, an American conservative political journalism website primarily funded by Republican donor Paul Singer, hired the American research firm Fusion GPS to conduct general opposition research on Trump and other Republican presidential candidates.[1] For months, Fusion GPS gathered information about Trump, focusing on his business and entertainment activities. When Trump became the presumptive nominee on May 3, 2016,[17] The Free Beacon stopped funding research on him.[2][18][19]

Although the source of the Steele dossier's funding had already been reported correctly over a year before,[2][18][19] a February 2, 2018 story by the Associated Press (AP) contributed to confusion about its funding by stating that the dossier "was initially funded" by the Washington Free Beacon, so the AP posted a correction the next day: "Though the former spy, Christopher Steele, was hired by a firm that was initially funded by the Washington Free Beacon, he did not begin work on the project until after Democratic groups had begun funding it."[20] At no point in time did the Free Beacon have any connection with the production of the Steele dossier, and the Free Beacon stated that "none of the work product that the Free Beacon received appears in the Steele dossier."[21]

Research funded by Democrats produces dossier

The second phase of opposition research was funded by the DNC and the Clinton campaign, working through their attorney of record, Marc Elias of Perkins Coie. In April 2016, Elias hired Fusion GPS to perform opposition research on Trump.[7]

As part of their investigation, Fusion GPS hired Orbis Business Intelligence, a private British intelligence firm, to look into connections between Trump and Russia. Orbis co-founder Christopher Steele, a retired British MI6 officer with expertise in Russian matters,[2] was hired as a subcontractor to do the job.[22] In total, Perkins Coie paid Fusion GPS $1.02 million in fees and expenses, $168,000 of which was paid to Orbis by Fusion GPS and used by them to produce the dossier.[23]

Orbis was hired between June and November 2016, and Steele produced 16 memos during that time, with a 17th memo added in December.[24] The memos were like "prepublication notes" based on reports from Steele's sources, and were not released as a fully vetted and "finished news article".[25] Steele believes that 70–90% of the dossier is accurate,[26] a view that is shared by Simpson.[25]

Simpson has stated that, to his knowledge, Steele did not pay any of his sources.[27][28][29] According to investigative reporter Jane Mayer of The New Yorker, Orbis has a large number of paid "collectors" who "harvest intelligence from a much larger network of unpaid sources, some of whom don't even realize they are being treated as informants […] but money doesn't change hands, because it could risk violating laws against, say, bribing government officials or insider trading. Paying sources might also encourage them to embellish."[8] According to British journalist Luke Harding, Steele's sources were not new: "They're not people that he kind of discovered yesterday. They are trusted contacts who essentially had proven themselves in other areas."[30] Howard Blum said that Steele leaned on sources "whose loyalty and information he had bought and paid for over the years".[31]

According to Fusion GPS's co-owners, Glenn Simpson and Peter Fritsch, they did not tell Steele who their ultimate clients were, only that Steele was "working for a law firm",[8] and they "gave him no specific marching orders beyond this basic question: 'Why did Mr. Trump repeatedly seek to do deals in a notoriously corrupt police state that most serious investors shun?'"[28] Mayer reported that when the Clinton campaign "indirectly employed" Steele, Elias created a "legal barrier" by acting "as a firewall" between the campaign and Steele. Thus, any details were "protected by attorney-client privilege. Fusion briefed only Elias on the reports. Simpson sent Elias nothing on paper—he was briefed orally."[8] Only several months after signing the contract with Fusion GPS did Steele learn that the DNC and the Clinton campaign were the ultimate clients.[8] The firewall was reportedly so effective that even campaign principals John Podesta and Robby Mook did not know that Steele was on the Democratic payroll until Mother Jones reported on the issue on October 31, 2016.[8]

Steele delivered his reports individually as one- to three-page memos.[2] The first memo, dated June 20, 2016, was sent to Washington by courier and hand-delivered to Fusion GPS. The names of the sources were redacted, "providing instead descriptions of them that enabled Fusion to assess their basic credibility."[8]

Steele has stated that he soon found "troubling information indicating connections between Trump and the Russian government." According to his sources, "there was an established exchange of information between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin of mutual benefit."[32] According to Harding, "Steele was shocked by the extent of collusion his sources were reporting," and told his friends: "For anyone who reads it, this is a life-changing experience."[26] Steele felt that what he had unearthed "was something of huge significance, way above party politics."[31] American reporter Howard Blum described Steele's rationale for becoming a whistleblower: "The greater good trumps all other concerns."[31]

On his own initiative, Steele decided to also pass the information to British and American intelligence services because he believed the findings were a matter of national security for both countries.[33][34] According to Simpson's testimony, Steele approached the FBI because he was concerned that Trump, then a candidate, was being blackmailed by Russia,[35] and he became "very concerned about whether this represented a national security threat".[33] When Steele showed his findings to FBI agents in Rome in early July, their reaction was "shock and horror".[35][36]

Steele enjoyed a good working reputation "for the knowledge he had developed over nearly 20 years working on Russia-related issues for British intelligence."[11] Knowing this, in October 2016, a few weeks before the election, the FBI agreed to pay him to continue collecting information. However, the subsequent public release of the dossier stopped discussions between Steele and the FBI.[11] Simpson testified that "Steele wasn't paid by the FBI, but was possibly reimbursed for a trip to Rome to meet with FBI officials."[19][37] According to Mayer, Steele "did request compensation for travelling to Rome, but he never received any."[8]

Simpson later revealed that "Steele severed his contacts with [the] FBI before the election following public statements by the FBI that it had found no connection between the Trump campaign and Russia and concerns that [the FBI] was being 'manipulated for political ends by the Trump people'."[38] Steele had become frustrated with the FBI, whom he believed failed to investigate his reports, choosing instead to focus on the investigation into Clinton's emails. According to The Independent, Steele came to believe that there was a "cabal" inside the FBI, particularly its New York field office linked to Trump advisor Rudy Giuliani, because it blocked any attempts to investigate the links between Trump and Russia.[34]

Hints of existence: Mother Jones story

By the third quarter of 2016, many news organizations knew about the existence of the dossier, which had been described as an "open secret" among journalists. However, they chose not to publish information that could not be confirmed.[2][39]

By October 2016, Steele had compiled 33 pages (16 memos), and he then passed on what he had discovered to David Corn, a reporter from Mother Jones magazine. On October 31, 2016, a week before the election, Mother Jones reported that a former intelligence officer, whom they did not name, had produced a report based on Russian sources and turned it over to the FBI.[32] The article disclosed some of the dossier's allegations:

The first memo, based on the former intelligence officer’s conversations with Russian sources, noted, "Russian regime has been cultivating, supporting and assisting TRUMP for at least 5 years. Aim, endorsed by PUTIN, has been to encourage splits and divisions in western alliance". It maintained that Trump "and his inner circle have accepted a regular flow of intelligence from the Kremlin, including on his Democratic and other political rivals". It claimed that Russian intelligence had "compromised" Trump during his visits to Moscow and could "blackmail him". It also reported that Russian intelligence had compiled a dossier on Hillary Clinton based on "bugged conversations she had on various visits to Russia and intercepted phone calls."

— David Corn, "A Veteran Spy Has Given the FBI Information Alleging a Russian Operation to Cultivate Donald Trump", Mother Jones (October 31, 2016)[32]

When the Mother Jones story broke, John Podesta, chairman of the Clinton campaign, said he was "stunned by the news that the F.B.I. had launched a full-blown investigation into Trump, especially one that was informed by research underwritten by the Clinton campaign." Although they knew that Perkins Coie had spent money for opposition research, neither Podesta nor campaign manager Robby Mook knew that Steele was on the Democratic payroll. They both maintain they "didn't read the dossier until BuzzFeed posted it online. Far from a secret campaign weapon, Steele turned out to be a secret kept from the campaign."[8]

Post-election events

After Trump's election on November 8, 2016, the Democratic client stopped paying for the investigation, but Steele continued working on the dossier for Fusion GPS.[2] At that time, Simpson "reportedly spent his own money to continue the investigation".[9] After the election, Steele's dossier "became one of Washington's worst-kept secrets, and journalists worked to verify the allegations.[2]

On November 18, 2016, U.S. Senator John McCain, who had been informed about the alleged links between the Kremlin and Trump, met with former British ambassador to Moscow Sir Andrew Wood at the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada. Wood told McCain about the existence of the collected materials about Trump,[40] and also vouched for Steele's professionalism and integrity.[41]

Steele agreed with Fusion GPS to deliver a hard copy of all 16 memos to McCain,[24] which he received in early December from David J. Kramer, a former U.S. State Department official working at Arizona State University.[2] On December 9, McCain met personally with FBI Director James Comey to pass on the information.[40][15] Comey later confirmed that counterintelligence investigations were under way into possible links between Trump associates and Moscow.[24]

After delivering his 16 memos, Steele received more information and composed the two-page "December memo", dated December 13. It mostly contained allegations against Trump's personal attorney, Michael Cohen, which he denied.[42][43] In an April 2017 court filing, Steele revealed previously unreported information that he had given a copy of his last memo to a "senior UK government national security official acting in his official capacity, on a confidential basis in hard copy form", because it "had implications for the national security of the US and the UK".[24]

Publication by BuzzFeed

In early January 2017, President-elect Trump[44] and President Barack Obama were separately briefed about the Russian interference in the election and on the existence of the dossier by the chiefs of several U.S. intelligence agencies. Vice President Joe Biden has confirmed that he and the president had received briefings on the dossier, and the allegations within.[45][46][47]

After the meeting with Obama, Trump was informed of the Russian election interference by Comey and Clapper on January 6 2017, at a meeting in Trump Tower. After this meeting, Comey stayed behind and spoke privately with Trump, informing him of the dossier and some of its allegations.[48] Trump later expressed that he felt that James Comey was trying to blackmail him at the meeting in Trump Tower, held two weeks before the inauguration.[44] In April 2018, Comey said he did not inform Trump that the dossier was partly funded by Democrats because that "wasn't necessary for my goal, which was to alert him that we had this information".[49][50]

On January 10, 2017, CNN reported that classified documents presented to Obama and Trump the previous week included allegations that Russian operatives possess "compromising personal and financial information" about Trump. CNN stated that it would not publish specific details on the memos because it had not "independently corroborated the specific allegations".[51][52] Following the CNN report,[53] BuzzFeed published a 35-page dossier that it said was the basis of the briefing, including unverified claims that Russian operatives had collected "embarrassing material" involving Trump that could be used to blackmail him.[54][55][56]

BuzzFeed was harshly criticized for publishing what Washington Post columnist Margaret Sullivan called "scurrilous allegations dressed up as an intelligence report meant to damage Donald Trump",[57] while The New York Times noted that the publication sparked a debate centering on the use of unsubstantiated information from anonymous sources.[58] BuzzFeed's executive staff said the materials were newsworthy because they were "in wide circulation at the highest levels of American government and media" and argued that this justified public release.[59]

Authorship

When CNN reported the existence of the dossier on January 10, 2017,[51][60] it did not name the author of the dossier, but revealed that he was British. Steele concluded that his anonymity had been "fatally compromised", and, realizing it was "only a matter of time until his name became public knowledge", he fled into hiding with his family, in fear of "a prompt and potentially dangerous backlash against him from Moscow".[61][62] The Wall Street Journal revealed Steele's name the next day, on January 11.[63] Orbis Business Intelligence Ltd, for whom Steele worked at the time the dossier was authored, and its director Christopher Burrows, would not confirm or deny that Orbis had produced the dossier.[60][2] On March 7, 2017, as some members of the U.S. Congress were expressing interest in meeting with or hearing testimony from Steele, he reemerged after weeks in hiding, appearing publicly on camera and stating, "I'm really pleased to be back here working again at the Orbis's offices in London today."[64]

Called by the media a "highly regarded Kremlin expert" and "one of MI6's greatest Russia specialists", Steele formerly worked for the British intelligence agency MI6, heading its Russia Desk for three years at the end of his MI6 career. He entered MI6 in 1987, directly after his graduation from Cambridge University.[65] He currently works for Orbis Business Intelligence Ltd, a private intelligence company he co-founded in London.[66][67]

Wood, the former British ambassador to Moscow, has vouched for Steele's reputation.[34] He views Steele as a "very competent professional operator ... I take the report seriously. I don't think it's totally implausible." He also stated that "the report's key allegation—that Trump and Russia's leadership were communicating via secret back channels during the presidential campaign—was eminently plausible".[68] FBI investigators reportedly treat Steele "as a peer", whose experience as a trusted Russia expert has included assisting the Justice Department, British prime ministers, and at least one U.S. president.[69]

Allegations

Vladimir Putin meets with U.S. President Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, July 2017
Michael Cohen (2011)
Carter Page (2017)

The dossier contains multiple allegations, some of which have been publicly verified while many others remain publicly unverified but not disproven. In some cases, public verification is hindered because information is classified.[13] Trump and Putin have repeatedly denied the allegations, with Trump labeling the dossier as "discredited", "debunked", "fictitious", and "fake news".[70][71]

Cultivation, conspiracy, and cooperation

  • That "Russian authorities" had cultivated Trump "for at least 5 years", and that the operation was "supported and directed" by Putin.[72][73] (Dossier, p. 1)
  • That Putin aimed to spread "discord and disunity" within the United States and between Western allies, whom he saw as a threat to Russia's interests.[33][74] (Dossier, p. 1-2)
  • That Trump was a "divisive" and "anti-Establishment" candidate, as well as "a pragmatist with whom they could do business". That Trump would remain a divisive force even if not elected.[75][76] (Dossier, p. 29)
  • That a major goal of the Russians in supporting Trump was "to upset the liberal international status quo, including on Ukraine-related sanctions, which was seriously disadvantaging the country.[75][76] (Dossier, p. 28-29)
  • That the Russian government's support for Trump was originally conducted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, then by the Federal Security Service (FSB), and was eventually directly handled by the Russian presidency because of its "growing significance over time."[75][3] (Dossier, p. 29)
  • That Trump had "so far declined various sweetener real estate business deals", but had "accepted a regular flow of intelligence from the Kremlin," notably on his political rivals.[15][77] (Dossier, p. 1)
  • That there was "a well-developed conspiracy of co-operation between [the Trump campaign] and the Russian leadership," with information willingly exchanged in both directions. That this co-operation was "sanctioned at highest levels and involving Russian diplomatic staff based in the US." That the Trump campaign used "moles within DNC and hackers in the US as well as outside in Russia."[78][79] (Dossier, pp. 7)
  • That Trump associates had established "an intelligence exchange [with the Kremlin] for at least 8 years." That Trump and his team had delivered "intelligence on the activities, business and otherwise, in the US of leading Russian oligarchs and their families", as requested by Putin."[75][80][76] (Dossier, p. 11)
  • That the Trump camp became angry and resentful toward Putin when they realized he was not only aiming to weaken Clinton and bolster Trump, but was attempting to "undermine the US government and democratic system more generally."[76] (Dossier, p. 17)

Key roles of Manafort, Cohen, and Page

  • That then-Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort had "managed" the "conspiracy of co-operation", and that he used Trump's foreign policy adviser, Carter Page, and others, "as intermediaries".[81][82] (Dossier, p. 7)
  • That Page had "conceived and promoted" the idea of leaking the stolen DNC emails to WikiLeaks during the 2016 Democratic National Convention.[83][74] (Dossier, p. 7, 17)
  • That Cohen played a "key role" in the Trump–Russia relationship[3] by maintaining a "covert relationship with Russia",[84][85][86] arranging cover-ups and "deniable cash payments",[42][24] and that his role had grown after Manafort had left the campaign.[87][83] (Dossier, pp. 18, 30, 32, 34-35)
  • That "COHEN now was heavily engaged in a cover up and damage limitation operation in the attempt to prevent the full details of TRUMP's relationship with Russia being exposed."[83][76] (Dossier, p. 32)

Kremlin pro-Trump and anti-Clinton

  • That Putin feared and hated Hillary Clinton.[81][88] (Dossier, p. 7)
  • That there was a "Kremlin campaign to aid TRUMP and damage CLINTON".[78][79] (Dossier, pp. 7, 13)
  • That Putin's interference operation had an "objective of weakening CLINTON and bolstering TRUMP".[76] (Dossier, p. 17)

Kompromat and blackmail: Trump

  • That Trump "hated" Obama so much that when he stayed in the Presidential suite of the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Moscow,[8][89] he employed "a number of prostitutes to perform a 'golden showers' (urination) show in front of him"[73][54] in order to defile the bed used by the Obamas on an earlier visit. The alleged incident from 2013 was reportedly filmed and recorded by the FSB[90] as kompromat.[91][92][93] (Dossier, p. 2)
  • That Trump was susceptible to blackmail[31][75] due to paying bribes and the existence of "embarrassing material" due to engagement in "perverted sexual acts" and "unorthodox behavior" in Russia.[94][54][90] (Dossier, pp. 1–2, 8, 11, 27)
  • That the Kremlin had assured Trump they would not use kompromat collected against him, "given high levels of voluntary co-operation forthcoming from his team."[75][95][96] (Dossier, p. 11-12)
  • That Trump had explored the real estate sectors in St Petersburg and Moscow, "but in the end TRUMP had had to settle for the use of extensive sexual services there from local prostitutes rather than business success".[92][91] (Dossier, p. 8)
  • That Trump has pursued real estate deals in St Petersburg, and "paid bribes there to further his interests". That witnesses to his "sex parties in the city" had been "'silenced' i.e. bribed or coerced to disappear."[92][91] (Dossier, p. 27)
  • That Trump associates did not fear "the negative media publicity surrounding alleged Russian interference", because it distracted attention from his "business dealings in China and other emerging markets", which involved "large bribes and kickbacks" that could be devastating if revealed.[97][30] (Dossier, p. 8)

Kompromat: Clinton

Dmitry Peskov (2017)
  • That Putin ordered the maintenance of a secret dossier on Hillary Clinton, with content dating back to the time of her husband's presidency. The dossier comprised eavesdropped conversations, either from bugging devices or from phone intercepts; it did not contain "details/evidence of unorthodox or embarrassing behavior", but focused more on "things she had said which contradicted her current positions on various issues".
  • That the Clinton dossier had been collated by the FSB[75][32] and was managed by Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary.[90][33] (Dossier, pp. 1, 3)

DNC email hack, leaks, and misinformation

  • That Russia was responsible for the DNC email hacks[75][98] and the recent appearance of the stolen DNC e-mails on WikiLeaks,[75][96] and that the reason for using WikiLeaks was "plausible deniability".[99] (Dossier, pp. 7–8)
  • That "the operation had been conducted with the full knowledge and support of TRUMP and senior members of his campaign team."[3][99] (Dossier, p. 8)
  • That after the emails had been forwarded to WikiLeaks, it was decided to not leak more, but to engage in misinformation: "Rather the tactics would be to spread rumours and misinformation about the content of what already had been leaked and make up new content."[82] (Dossier, p. 15)
  • That Page had intended the email leaks "to swing supporters of Bernie SANDERS away from Hillary CLINTON and across to TRUMP."[83][88] (Dossier, p. 17)
  • That the hacking of the DNC servers was performed by Romanian hackers ultimately controlled by Putin and paid by both Trump and Putin.[42][24] (Dossier, pp. 34–35)
  • That Cohen, together with three colleagues, secretly met with Kremlin officials in the Prague offices of Rossotrudnichestvo in August 2016,[100][75][43][101] where he arranged "deniable cash payments" to the hackers and sought "to cover up all traces of the hacking operation",[42][24] as well as "cover up ties between Trump and Russia, including Manafort's involvement in Ukraine".[3] (Dossier, pp. 18, 34-35)

Kickbacks and quid pro quo agreements

  • That Viktor Yanukovych, the former pro-Russian President of Ukraine, had told Putin that he had been making supposedly untraceable[3] "kick-back payments" to Manafort while he was Trump's campaign manager.[99] (Dossier, p. 20)
  • That in return for Russia's leaking the stolen documents to WikiLeaks, "the TRUMP team had agreed to sideline Russian intervention in Ukraine as a campaign issue and to raise US/NATO defense commitments in the Baltics and Eastern Europe to deflect attention away from Ukraine, a priority for PUTIN who needed to cauterise the subject."[81][99] (Dossier, pp. 7–8)
  • That Page had secretly met Rosneft chairman Igor Sechin in Moscow, together with a "senior Kremlin Internal Affairs official, DIVYEKIN." That Sechin offered Trump a 19% stake in Rosneft (worth about $11 billion) in exchange for lifting the sanctions against Russia after his election.[102][76] That Page confirmed, on Trump's "full authority", that he intended to lift the sanctions.[75][103][104] (Dossier, pp. 9, 30-32)

Russian spy withdrawn

  • That Russia had hastily withdrawn from Washington their diplomat Mikhail Kalugin (misspelled as "Kulagin"), whose prominent role in the interference operation should remain hidden.[105][80][106] (Dossier, p. 23)

Cultivation of various U.S. political figures

Possible earlier interest in Trump

Although the dossier alleged in June 2016 that the Kremlin had been cultivating Trump for "at least five years", Harding wrote that the Soviet Union had been interested in him since 1987. In his book Collusion, Harding asserts that the "top level of the Soviet diplomatic service arranged his 1987 Moscow visit. With assistance from the KGB." Then-KGB head Vladimir Kryuchkov "wanted KGB staff abroad to recruit more Americans." Harding proceeds to describe the KGB's cultivation process, and posits that they may have opened a file on Trump as early as 1977, when he had married Czech model Ivana Zelníčková; the Soviet spies may have closely observed and analyzed the couple from that time on.[108][96]

Denials of specific claims

Michael Cohen

The dossier alleges that Trump's personal attorney, Michael Cohen, met with Russian officials in Prague in 2016 with the objective of paying those who had hacked the DNC and to "cover up all traces of the hacking operation". Cohen has denied the allegations against him,[42][24][43] stating that he was in Los Angeles between August 23 and 29, and in New York for the entire month of September.[101] According to a Czech intelligence source, there is no record of him entering Prague by plane, but Respekt magazine and Politico pointed out that he could have entered by car or train from a neighboring country within the Schengen Area, for example Italy. In the latter case, a record of Cohen entering the Schengen zone from a non-Schengen country should exist.[109][110]

On April 13, 2018, McClatchy reported that the Mueller investigation had evidence that Cohen visited Prague in August or early September 2016 by traveling through Germany.[100] The following day, Cohen again denied he has "ever been to Prague".[111][112]

Paul Manafort

Manafort has "denied taking part in any collusion with the Russian state, but registered himself as a foreign agent retroactively after it was revealed his firm received more than $17m working as a lobbyist for a pro-Russian Ukrainian party."[82]

Carter Page

Page originally denied meeting any Russian officials, but his later testimony, acknowledging that he had met with senior Russian officials at Rosneft, has been interpreted as corroboration of portions of the dossier.[113][114][115]

Donald Trump

Denial and alibi

Trump has denied the salacious "golden showers" allegation by claiming he is a "germaphobe",[116] and then, as an alibi, that he did not overnight in Moscow.[117] In April 2018, James Comey said he did not know whether Trump "was with prostitutes peeing on each other in Moscow in 2013", adding "It's possible, but I don't know."[49][50] Comey stated that at the time he was fired, the allegations had not been verified.[118] Comey wrote in his book, A Higher Loyalty, that Trump mentioned "the golden showers thing" and told him that "it bothered him if there was 'even a one percent chance' his wife, Melania, thought it was true." Trump "told him to consider having the FBI investigate the prostitutes allegation to 'prove it was a lie'."[117]

Alibi disproven

On two separate occasions, Trump provided identical and disproven alibis to James Comey. Trump claimed he did not overnight in Moscow, but flight records and Keith Schiller's testimony show that he did spend at least one full night in Moscow.[119] The false claims are considered to "lend weight to the allegation" in the dossier "that Trump engaged in compromising activity during the trip that exposed him to Russian government blackmail." According Pete Zeidenberg, a former federal prosecutor, the false statements "could demonstrate that Trump has 'consciousness of guilt'."[120]

Trump not only spent a full night in the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Moscow[121] that weekend, according to Trump's close acquaintance, Aras Agalarov,[122] he actually stayed in the Presidential suite, where the "golden showers" incident is alleged to have occurred.[8]

Trump's longtime bodyguard Keith Schiller "privately testified that he rejected an offer by a Russian individual to send five women to Trump's hotel room during their 2013 trip to Moscow," stating that "he took the offer as a joke ... and Trump laughed it off." After accompanying Trump to his room, Schiller stayed outside the door for a few minutes and then left.[123] "One source noted that Schiller testified he eventually left Trump's hotel room door and could not say for sure what happened during the remainder of the night."[124]

Thomas Roberts, the host of the Miss Universe contest, has confirmed that "Trump was in Moscow for one full night and at least part of another." (November 8-10).[125] The Daily Beast summed up the evidence against Trump's alibi that he overnighted in Moscow: "All available evidence proves otherwise—from flight records obtained by Politico to social media posts from the time to testimony from Trump's own bodyguard. And now there's more proof." When asked, Roberts would not confirm if he had been interviewed by Robert Mueller.[125]

Veracity

There are those who trust the dossier, and those who question its veracity. Steele and the dossier have become "the central point of contention in the political brawl raging around"[69] the Special counsel investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. Some consider Steele a hero who tried to warn about the Kremlin's meddling in the election, and others consider him a "hired gun" used to attack Trump.[69]

Reputation in the U.S. intelligence community

On January 11, 2017, Paul Wood, of BBC News, wrote that the salacious information in Steele's dossier was also reported by "multiple intelligence sources" and "at least one East European intelligence service". They reported that "compromising material on Mr. Trump" included "more than one tape, not just video, but audio as well, on more than one date, in more than one place, in both Moscow and St. Petersburg." While also mentioning that "nobody should believe something just because an intelligence agent says it",[126][63] Wood added that "the CIA believes it is credible that the Kremlin has such kompromat—or compromising material—on the next US commander in chief" and "a joint taskforce, which includes the CIA and the FBI, has been investigating allegations that the Russians may have sent money to Mr Trump's organisation or his election campaign".[127][128][126]

On January 12, 2017, Susan Hennessey, a former National Security Agency lawyer now with the Brookings Institution, stated: "My general take is that the intelligence community and law enforcement seem to be taking these claims seriously. That itself is highly significant. But it is not the same as these allegations being verified. Even if this was an intelligence community document—which it isn't—this kind of raw intelligence is still treated with skepticism."[129][130] Hennessey and Benjamin Wittes wrote that "the current state of the evidence makes a powerful argument for a serious public inquiry into this matter".[130]

On February 10, 2017, CNN reported that some communications between "senior Russian officials and other Russian individuals" described in the dossier had been corroborated by multiple U.S. officials. They "took place between the same individuals on the same days and from the same locations as detailed in the dossier". Sources told CNN that some conversations had been "intercepted during routine intelligence gathering", but refused to reveal the content of conversations, or specify which communications were intercepted "due to the classified nature of US intelligence collection programs". CNN was unable to confirm whether conversations were related to Trump. U.S. officials said the corroboration gave "US intelligence and law enforcement 'greater confidence' in the credibility of some aspects of the dossier as they continue to actively investigate its contents". They also reported that American intelligence agencies had examined Steele and his "vast network throughout Europe and found him and his sources to be credible."[14]

On March 30, 2017, Paul Wood reported that the FBI was using the dossier as a road map for its investigation.[131] On April 18, 2017, CNN reported that, according to U.S. officials, information from the dossier had been used as part of the basis for getting the FISA warrant to monitor Page in October 2016. Officials told CNN this information would have had to be independently corroborated by the FBI before being used to obtain the warrant.[10][132]

British journalist Julian Borger wrote on October 7, 2017, that "Steele's reports are being taken seriously after lengthy scrutiny by federal and congressional investigators", at least Steele's assessment that Russia had conducted a campaign to interfere in the 2016 election to Clinton's detriment; that part of the Steele dossier "has generally gained in credibility, rather than lost it".[82]

On October 11, 2017, it was reported that Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island), member of the Senate Judiciary Committee (SJC), had stated: "As I understand it, a good deal of his information remains unproven, but none of it has been disproven, and considerable amounts of it have been proven."[133]

On October 27, 2017, Robert S. Litt, a former lawyer for the Director of National Intelligence, was quoted as stating that the dossier "played absolutely no role" in the intelligence community's determination that Russia had interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.[134]

On December 7, 2017, commentator Jonathan Chait wrote that mainstream media "treat [the dossier] as gossip" whereas the intelligence community "take it seriously".[135]

On January 29, 2018, Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said "little of that dossier has either been fully proven or conversely, disproven".[136][137]

John Sipher, who served 28 years as a clandestine CIA agent, including heading the agency's Russia program, said investigating the dossier allegations requires access to non-public records. He said "[p]eople who say it’s all garbage, or all true, are being politically biased", adding he believes that while the dossier may not be correct in every detail, it is “generally credible” and "In the intelligence business, you don’t pretend you’re a hundred per cent accurate. If you’re seventy or eighty per cent accurate, that makes you one of the best.” He said the Mueller investigation would ultimately judge its merits.[8] Sipher has written that "Many of my former CIA colleagues have taken the [dossier] reports seriously since they were first published."[87]

During his April 15, 2018, ABC News interview with George Stephanopoulos, former FBI Director James Comey described Steele as a "credible source": "It was coming from a credible source, someone with a track record, someone who was a credible and respected member of an allied intelligence service during his career, and so it was important that we try to understand it, and see what could we verify, what could we rule in or rule out."[138]

Varied reactions about veracity

While Steele, the author of the dossier, said he believes that 70–90% of the dossier is accurate,[26] other observers and experts have had varying reactions to the dossier. Generally, "former intelligence officers and other national-security experts" urged "skepticism and caution" but still took "the fact that the nation's top intelligence officials chose to present a summary version of the dossier to both President Obama and President-elect Trump" as an indication "that they may have had a relatively high degree of confidence that at least some of the claims therein were credible, or at least worth investigating further".[129]

Vice President Joe Biden told reporters that, while he and Obama were receiving a briefing on the extent of election hacking attempts, there was a two-page addendum which addressed the contents of the Steele dossier.[45] Top intelligence officials told them they "felt obligated to inform them about uncorroborated allegations about President-elect Donald Trump out of concern the information would become public and catch them off-guard".[139]

On January 11, 2017, Newsweek published a list of "13 things that don't add up" in the dossier, writing that it was a "strange mix of the amateur and the insightful" and stating that it "contains lots of Kremlin-related gossip that could indeed be, as the author claims, from deep insiders—or equally gleaned" from Russian newspapers and blogs.[140] Former UK ambassador to Russia Sir Tony Brenton stated that certain aspects of the dossier were inconsistent with British intelligence's understanding of how the Kremlin works, commenting: "I've seen quite a lot of intelligence on Russia, and there are some things in [the dossier] which look pretty shaky."[141]

In his June 2017 Senate Intelligence Committee testimony, former FBI director James Comey called "some personally sensitive aspects" of the dossier "salacious and unverified," but he did not state that the entire dossier was unverified or that the salacious aspects were false. When Senator Richard Burr asked if any of the allegations in the dossier had been confirmed, Comey said he could not answer that question in a public setting.[142][13]

Trump and his supporters have challenged the veracity of the dossier because it was funded in part by the Clinton campaign and the DNC, while Democrats assert the funding source is irrelevant.[143]

Veracity of certain allegations

Russian assistance to the Trump campaign

A January 6, 2017, assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) stated that Russian leadership favored the Trump candidacy over Clinton's, and that Putin personally ordered an "influence campaign" to harm Clinton's electoral chances and "undermine public faith in the US democratic process," as well as ordering cyber attacks on "both major U.S. political parties".[144]

Newsweek stated that a dossier allegation was confirmed by this assessment.[73] ABC News stated that "some of the dossier's broad implications—particularly that Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an operation to boost Trump and sow discord within the U.S. and abroad—now ring true."[33] Referring to the ODNI assessment, former Los Angeles Times Moscow correspondent Robert Gillette wrote in an op-ed in the Concord Monitor that the dossier has had at least one of its main factual assertions verified....Steele's dossier, paraphrasing multiple sources, reported precisely the same conclusion, in greater detail, six months earlier, in a memo dated June 20."[145]

In The New Yorker, Jane Mayer has stated that the allegation that Trump was favored by the Kremlin, and that they offered Trump's campaign dirt on Clinton, has proven true.[8]

In March 2016, George Papadopoulos, a Trump campaign foreign policy adviser, learned that the Russians had "dirt" on Clinton in the form of thousands of stolen emails. This occurred before the hacking of the DNC computers had become public knowledge.[146][147] Papadopoulos sent emails about Putin to at least seven Trump campaign officials. Trump national campaign co-chairman Sam Clovis[148] encouraged Papadopoulos to fly to Russia and meet with agents of the Russian Foreign Ministry, who reportedly wanted to share "Clinton dirt" with the Trump campaign.[149][150] When Donald Trump Jr. learned of the offer, he welcomed it by responding: "If it's what you say, I love it..."[8] Later, on June 9, 2016, a meeting in Trump Tower was held, ostensibly for representatives from Russia to deliver that dirt on Clinton.[151][152]

Republican position on Russian conflict with Ukraine

The dossier alleges that "the Trump campaign agreed to minimize US opposition to Russia's incursions into Ukraine".[153] Harding considers this allegation to have been confirmed by the actions of the Trump campaign: "This is precisely what happened at the Republican National Convention last July, when language on the US's commitment to Ukraine was mysteriously softened."[42] In July 2016, the Republican National Convention made changes to the Republican Party's platform on Ukraine: initially the platform proposed providing "lethal weapons" to Ukraine, but the line was changed to "appropriate assistance". NPR reported, "Diana Denman, a Republican delegate who supported arming U.S. allies in Ukraine, has told people that Trump aide J.D. Gordon said at the Republican Convention in 2016 that Trump directed him to support weakening that position in the official platform."[154] J. D. Gordon, who was one of Trump's national security advisers during the campaign, said that he had advocated for changing language because that reflected what Trump had said.[107][155] The Trump campaign does not appear to have intervened in any other platform deliberations aside from the language on Ukraine.[156]

In an interview on This Week, Trump told George Stephanopoulos that people in his campaign were responsible for changing the GOP's platform stance on Ukraine, but that he was not personally involved.[157]

Trump had formerly taken a hard line on Ukraine. He initially denounced Russia's annexation of Crimea as a "land grab" that "should never have happened", and called for a firmer U.S. response, saying "We should definitely be strong. We should definitely do sanctions." But after hiring Manafort his approach changed; he said he might recognize Crimea as Russian territory and might lift the sanctions against Russia.[158]

Relations with Europe and NATO

Vladimir Putin (2017)

The dossier alleges that as part of a quid pro quo agreement, "the TRUMP team had agreed… to raise US/NATO defense commitments in the Baltics and Eastern Europe to deflect attention away from Ukraine, a priority for PUTIN who needed to cauterise the subject."[81] Aiko Stevenson, writing in The Huffington Post, noted that some of Trump's actions seem to align with "Putin's wish list", which "includes lifting sanctions on Russia, turning a blind eye towards its aggressive efforts in the Ukraine, and creating a divisive rift amongst western allies."[159] During the campaign Trump "called Nato, the centrepiece of Transatlantic security 'obsolete', championed the disintegration of the EU, and said that he is open to lifting sanctions on Moscow."[159] Harding adds that Trump repeatedly "questioned whether US allies were paying enough into Nato coffers."[42] Jeff Stein, writing in Newsweek, described how "Trump's repeated attacks on NATO have...frustrated...allies ...[and] raised questions as to whether the president has been duped into facilitating Putin's long-range objective of undermining the European Union."[160]

Lifting of sanctions

The dossier says that Page, claiming to speak with Trump's authority, had confirmed that Trump would lift the existing sanctions against Russia if he were elected president.[75] On December 29, 2016, during the transition period between the election and the inauguration, National Security Advisor designate Flynn spoke to Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak, urging him not to retaliate for newly imposed sanctions; the Russians took his advice and did not retaliate.[161] Within days after the inauguration, new Trump administration officials ordered State Department staffers to develop proposals for immediately revoking the economic and other sanctions.[162] One retired diplomat later said, "What was troubling about these stories is that suddenly I was hearing that we were preparing to rescind sanctions in exchange for, well, nothing."[163] The staffers alerted Congressional allies who took steps to codify the sanctions into law. The attempt to overturn the sanctions was abandoned after Flynn's conversation was revealed and Flynn resigned.[162] In August 2017, Congress passed a bipartisan bill to impose new sanctions on Russia. Trump reluctantly signed the bill, but then refused to implement it.[164]

Spy withdrawn from Russian embassy

The dossier alleges that a "Russian diplomat Mikhail KULAGIN [sic]" participated in US election meddling, and was recalled to Moscow because Kremlin was concerned that his role in the meddling would be exposed. The BBC later reported that US officials in 2016 had identified Russian diplomat Mikhail Kalugin as a spy and that he was under surveillance, thus "verifying" a key claim in the dossier.[80] Kalugin was the head of the economics section at the Russian embassy. He returned to Russia in August 2016.[82] McClatchy reported that the FBI was investigating whether Kalugin played a role in the election interference. Kalugin has denied the allegations.[82][165]

Page meeting with Rosneft officials

Jane Mayer said that this part of the dossier seems true, even if the name of an official may have been wrong. Page's congressional testimony confirmed he held secret meetings with top Moscow and Rosneft officials, including talks about a payoff: "When Page was asked if a Rosneft executive had offered him a 'potential sale of a significant percentage of Rosneft,' Page said, 'He may have briefly mentioned it'."[8]

On November 2, 2017, Page appeared before the House Intelligence Committee (HPSCI) which is investigating Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. In July 2016, Page made a five-day trip to Moscow,[166] but, according to his testimony, before leaving he informed Jeff Sessions, J. D. Gordon, Hope Hicks, and Corey Lewandowski, Trump's campaign manager, of the planned trip to Russia, and Lewandowski approved the trip, responding: "If you'd like to go on your own, not affiliated with the campaign, you know, that's fine."[104][113] In his testimony, Page admitted he met with high ranking Kremlin officials. Previously, Page had denied meeting any Russian officials during the July trip. His comments appeared to corroborate portions of the dossier.[114][115] Newsweek has listed the claim about Page meeting with Rosneft officials as "verified".[167]

Investigations using or referencing dossier

FBI's Russia investigation

In late July 2016, "the CIA had set up a special group with the NSA and FBI... to investigate the extent of Russian intervention in the presidential election." Former CIA director John Brennan then "ensured that all information about links between the Trump campaign and people working for or on behalf of Russian intelligence went to the FBI."[168] These links between Trump associates and Russian officials were numerous. Politico keeps a very detailed running tally of the persons, and, as of April 25, 2018, they listed "73 associated with [Trump's] 2016 campaign".[169] Julian Borger reported that in Brennan's testimony before the House intelligence committee, he made it clear "that he was alarmed by the extent of contacts between the Trump team and Moscow," and that this justified the FBI inquiry:[168]

Brennan stressed repeatedly that collusion may have been unwitting, at least at first as Russian intelligence was deft at disguising its approaches to would-be agents. "Frequently, individuals on a treasonous path do not even realize they’re on that path until it gets to be too late," he said.[168]

The investigation was also spurred by comments made by Trump foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos.[147][170] While Trump and some Republicans have claimed that the dossier was behind the beginning of the FBI investigation into his campaign's potential conspiracy with Russia, in December 2017, former and current intelligence officials revealed that the actual impetus was a series of comments made in May 2016 by Papadopoulos to Alexander Downer, a top Australian diplomat, during a night of "heavy drinking at an upscale London bar". Papadopoulos revealed that he had inside information by bragging that the Kremlin had "thousands of emails" stolen from Clinton which could be used to damage her campaign. He had learned this about three weeks earlier. Two months later, when WikiLeaks started releasing DNC emails, Australian officials alerted the Americans about Papadopoulos' remarks.[170][147] Over a year later, in October 2017, Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI, and became a cooperating witness in Mueller's investigation.[170]

Other factors also played into the FBI's decision to investigate Russian interference and the Trump campaign: intelligence from friendly governments, especially the British and Dutch, and information about Page's Moscow trip. Steele's first report was sent to Fusion GPS, dated June 20, 2016, and FBI agents first interviewed Steele in October 2016.[147] The New York Times reported on February 14, 2017 that the FBI had made contact with some of Steele's sources.[171] CNN later reported that the FBI had used the dossier to bolster its existing investigations.[24][10]

In a January 2, 2018, CNN panel discussion, Elizabeth Foley, a Florida International University law professor, alleged that the FISA warrant for Page was "all based on a dossier", adding "That's what Jim Comey has suggested." She also cited reports from CNN and The New York Times. PolitiFact concluded that her claim about Comey was unsubstantiated, and according to CNN, the dossier was only "part of the justification", and that The New York Times report did not mention the dossier. PolitiFact rated her claim "Mostly False".[172]

Special counsel investigation

According to Senate Intelligence Committee vice chairman Mark Warner (D-VA), the dossier's allegations are being investigated by a Special Counsel led by Robert Mueller, which, since May 2017, has been investigating allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 elections.[173] In the summer of 2017, Mueller's team of investigators met with Steele.[174] As some leads stemming from the dossier have already been followed and confirmed by the FBI, legal experts have stated that Special Counsel investigators, headed by Robert Mueller, are obligated to follow any leads the dossier has presented them with, irrespective of what parties financed it in its various stages of development, or "[t]hey would be derelict in their duty if they didn't."[173][175]

Subject of Nunes memo

On February 2, 2018, the Nunes memo, a four-page memorandum written for U.S. Representative Devin Nunes by his staff, was released to the public. Referring to the dossier, the memo states that the FBI "may have relied on politically motivated or questionable sources" to obtain a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant in October 2016 and in three subsequent renewals on Page in the early phases of the FBI's interference investigation.[176] Republican legislators argued that the memo presents evidence that a group of politically-biased FBI employees abused the FISA warrant process for the purpose of undermining the Trump presidency.[177] The Nunes memo stated that there was excessive and improper dependence on the Trump–Russia dossier.

On February 3, 2018, Trump praised the Nunes memo and tweeted:

Donald J. Trump Twitter
@realDonaldTrump

This memo totally vindicates "Trump" in probe. But the Russian Witch Hunt goes on and on. Their was no Collusion and there was no Obstruction (the word now used because, after one year of looking endlessly and finding NOTHING, collusion is dead). This is an American disgrace!

February 3, 2018[178]

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) disagreed, stating on February 4 on CBS's Face the Nation: "I actually don't think [the memo] has any impact on the Russia probe." He went on to say:

"There is a Russia investigation without a dossier," Gowdy said. "So to the extent the memo deals with the dossier and the FISA process, the dossier has nothing to do with the meeting at Trump Tower. The dossier has nothing to do with an email sent by Cambridge Analytica. The dossier really has nothing to do with George Papadopoulos' meeting in Great Britain. It also doesn't have anything to do with obstruction of justice. So there's going to be a Russia probe, even without a dossier."[19]

Glenn Kessler, a fact checker for The Washington Post, has analyzed a false accusation made by Devin Nunes in a February 7, 2018, interview on the Hugh Hewitt Show: "The truth is that they [Democrats] are covering up that Hillary Clinton colluded with the Russians to get dirt on Trump to feed it to the FBI to open up an investigation into the other campaign." Kessler's "Pinocchio Test" rating was: "[T]here is no evidence that Clinton was involved in Steele's reports or worked with Russian entities to feed information to Steele. That's where Nunes's claim goes off the rails—and why he earns Four Pinocchios."[179] "Four Pinocchios" equals a "Whopper".[180]

The Nunes memo falsely asserted that "Comey briefed President-elect Trump on a summary of the Steele dossier, even though it was — according to his June 2017 testimony — 'salacious and unverified.'" Factcheckers noted that Comey actually testified he informed Trump that "some personally sensitive aspects of the information" were "salacious and unverified," rather than the entire dossier.[181][182]

The Nunes memo asserted that Andrew McCabe testified to the House Intelligence Committee that "no surveillance warrant [of Carter Page] would have been sought from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) without the Steele dossier information," but because McCabe testified in classified session, no transcript has yet been released to verify this assertion. McCabe responded that his testimony was "selectively quoted" and "mischaracterized." Congressman Eric Swalwell, a member of the Committee, also stated that McCabe's testimony was mischaracterized.[183][184]

An April 18, 2018 letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions signed by several House Republicans referred James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Sally Yates, Dana Boente for criminal investigation related to use of the unverified information in the dossier in a FISA warrant on Carter Page. Hillary Clinton was named for failing to properly disclose payments to Fusion GPS in violation of Federal Election Commission law.[185]

Contrary to assertions by Trump and his supporters that the FBI investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections was triggered by the dossier, the Nunes memo confirmed the investigation began with a tip from Australian diplomat Alexander Downer regarding a conversation he had with Trump foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos in a London bar in May 2016.[147][186]

Amid assertions in the Nunes memo and from others that the dossier's use in the Carter Page FISA warrant request was improper — countered by assertions by Democrats that there was nothing improper — on April 6, 2018 the Justice Department made the FISA application available for all members of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees to review.[187]

Reactions

November 14, 2017 – House Intelligence Committee transcript of Glenn Simpson
August 22, 2017 Fusion GPS testimony transcript of Glenn Simpson

Individual responses

Donald Trump called the dossier "fake news" and criticized the intelligence and media sources that published it.[188] During a press conference on January 11, 2017, Trump denounced the dossier's claims as false, saying that it was "disgraceful" for U.S. intelligence agencies to report them. Trump refused to answer a question from CNN's senior White House correspondent Jim Acosta on the subject. In response, CNN said that it had published "carefully sourced reporting" on the matter which had been "matched by the other major news organizations", as opposed to BuzzFeed's posting of "unsubstantiated materials".[189][53]

James Clapper described the leaks as damaging to U.S. national security.[190] This contradicted Trump's previous claim that Clapper had said the information was false; Clapper's statement actually said the intelligence community had made no judgment on the truth of the information.[191]

As Putin's press secretary, Peskov insisted in an interview that the dossier is a fraud, saying "I can assure you that the allegations in this funny paper, in this so-called report, they are untrue. They are all fake."[192] Putin called the people who leaked the dossier "worse than prostitutes"[193] and referred to the dossier itself as "rubbish".[194] Putin went on to state he believed that the dossier was "clearly fake",[195] fabricated as a plot against the legitimacy of President-elect Trump.[196]

Some of Steele's former colleagues expressed support for his character, saying "The idea his work is fake or a cowboy operation is false—completely untrue. Chris is an experienced and highly regarded professional. He's not the sort of person who will simply pass on gossip."[197]

Among journalists, Bob Woodward called the dossier a "garbage document", while Carl Bernstein took the opposite view, noting that the senior-most U.S. intelligence officials had determined that the content was worth reporting to the president and the president-elect.[198] Julian Borger has described the dossier as "one of the most explosive documents in modern political history..."[82] Ben Smith, editor of BuzzFeed, wrote: "The dossier is a document...of obvious central public importance. It's the subject of multiple investigations by intelligence agencies, by Congress. That was clear a year ago. It's a lot clearer now."[199]

Ynet, an Israeli online news site, reported on January 12, 2017 that U.S. intelligence advised Israeli intelligence officers to be cautious about sharing information with the incoming Trump administration, until the possibility of Russian influence over Trump, suggested by Steele's report, has been fully investigated.[200]

On March 2, 2017, media began reporting that the Senate may call Steele to testify about the Trump dossier.[201] On March 27, 2017, SJC Chairman Chuck Grassley asked the Department of Justice to initiate an inquiry into Fusion GPS, who initially retained Steele to write the dossier.[202] Fusion GPS was previously associated with pro-Russia lobbying activities due to sanctions imposed by the Magnitsky Act.[203] On August 22, 2017, Steele met with the FBI and had provided them with the names of his sources for the allegations in the dossier.[204]

Steven L. Hall, former CIA chief of Russia operations, has contrasted Steele's methods with those of Donald Trump Jr., who sought information from a Russian attorney at a meeting in Trump Tower in June 2016: "The distinction: Steele spied against Russia to get info Russia did not want released; Don Jr took a mtg to get info Russians wanted to give."[205]

Jane Mayer referred to the same meeting and contrasted the difference in reactions to Russian attempts to support Trump: When Trump Jr. was offered "dirt" on Clinton as "part of Russia and its government's support for Mr. Trump," instead of "going to the F.B.I., as Steele had" done when he learned that Russia was helping Trump, Trump's son accepted the support by responding: "If it's what you say, I love it..."[8]

On January 2, 2018, Simpson and Fritsch authored an op-ed in The New York Times, requesting that Republicans "release full transcripts of our firm's testimony" and further wrote that, "the Steele dossier was not the trigger for the F.B.I.'s investigation into Russian meddling. As we told the Senate Judiciary Committee in August, our sources said the dossier was taken so seriously because it corroborated reports the bureau had received from other sources, including one inside the Trump camp."[28] Ken Dilanian of NBC News stated that a "source close to Fusion GPS" told him that the FBI had not planted anyone in the Trump camp, but rather that Simpson was referring to Papadopoulos.[206][38]

On January 5, 2018, in the first known Congressional criminal referral resulting from investigations related to the Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election, Grassley made a referral to the Justice Department suggesting that they investigate possible criminal charges against Steele[207][208] for allegedly making false statements to the FBI about the distribution of the dossier's claims,[209] specifically possible "inconsistencies" in what Steele told authorities and "possibly lying to FBI officials".[210] Senator Lindsey Graham also signed the letter.[211][212] Both Grassley and Graham declared that they were not alleging that Steele "had committed any crime. Rather, they had passed on the information for 'further investigation only'."[213] The referral was met with skepticism from legal experts, as well as some of the other Republicans and Democrats on the Judiciary committee, who reportedly had not been consulted.[211]

On January 8, 2018, a spokesman for Grassley said he did not plan to release the transcript of Simpson's August 22, 2017 testimony before the SJC.[214] The next day, ranking committee member Senator Dianne Feinstein unilaterally released the transcript.[215][216]

On January 10, 2018, Fox News host Sean Hannity appeared to have advance information on the forthcoming release of the Nunes memo and its assertions about the dossier, saying "more shocking information will be coming out in just days that will show systemic FISA abuse." Hannity asserted that this new information would reveal "a totally phony document full of Russian lies and propaganda that was then used by the Obama administration to surveil members of an opposition party and incoming president," adding that this was "the real Russia collusion story" that represented a "precipice of one of the largest abuses of power in U.S. American history. And I'm talking about the literal shredding of the U.S. Constitution."[217]

On January 18, 2018, the HPSCI released the transcript of the Simpson Testimony given on November 14, 2017.[218][219] Democratic committee member Adam Schiff stated that the testimony contains "serious allegations that The Trump Organization may have engaged in money laundering with Russian nationals". Trump Organization's chief counsel Alan Garten called the allegations "unsubstantiated" and "reckless", and said that Simpson was mainly referring to properties to which Trump licensed his name. Democratic member Jim Himes said that Simpson "did not provide evidence and I think that's an important point. He made allegations."[220]

In April 2018, the White House Correspondents' Association (WHCA) gave The Merriman Smith Memorial Award to CNN reporters Evan Perez, Jim Sciutto, Jake Tapper and Carl Bernstein. In January 2017, they reported that the intelligence community had briefed Obama and Trump of allegations that Russians claimed to have "compromising personal and financial information" on then-President elect Donald Trump[51][221] WHCA noted that "[t]hanks to this CNN investigation, 'the dossier' is now part of the lexicon".[222]

Circumstances surrounding the death of Oleg Erovinkin

On December 26, 2016, Oleg Erovinkin, a former KGB/FSB general, was found dead in his car in Moscow. Erovinkin was a key liaison between Sechin and Putin. Steele claimed much of the information came from a source close to Sechin. According to Christo Grozev, a journalist at Risk Management Lab, a think tank based in Bulgaria, the circumstances of Erovinkin's death were "mysterious". Grozev suspected Erovinkin helped Steele compile the dossier on Trump and suggests the hypothesis that the death may have been part of a cover-up by the Russian government.[223][224] Mark Galeotti, senior research fellow at the Institute of International Relations Prague, who specializes in Russian history and security, rejected Grozev's hypothesis.[225][223] According to Harding, Steele denied that Erovinkin was his direct source, but "the information could nonetheless have originated with Erovinkin" and he would be held responsible for the leak as one of the heads of Rosneft's administration in charge of security.[226]

Litigation

Against BuzzFeed and Fusion GPS

On February 3, 2017, Aleksej Gubarev, chief of technology company XBT and a figure mentioned in the dossier, sued BuzzFeed for defamation. The suit, filed in a Broward County, Florida court, centers on allegations from the dossier that XBT had been "using botnets and porn traffic to transmit viruses, plant bugs, steal data and conduct 'altering operations' against the Democratic Party leadership".[227][228] In the High Court of Justice, Steele's lawyers said their client did not intend for the memos to be released, and that one of the memos "needed to be analyzed and further investigated/verified".[229] In response to the lawsuit, BuzzFeed hired the business advisory firm FTI Consulting to investigate the dossier's allegations.[230] BuzzFeed has sued the DNC in an attempt to force the disclosure of information it believes will bolster its defense against libel allegations.[231] Fusion GPS "has claimed that it did not provide the dossier to BuzzFeed."[232]

In connection with the libel suit against them by Gubarev, on June 30, 2017, BuzzFeed subpoenaed the CIA, the FBI, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. They also sought "testimony from fired FBI Director James Comey, as well as former DNI James Clapper and CIA Director John Brennan". They were interested in using the discovery process to get information about the distribution of the dossier, how it had circulated among government officials, and the "existence and scope of the federal government's investigation into the dossier". They hoped "the information could bolster BuzzFeed's claim that publication of the document was protected by the fair report privilege, which can immunize reports based on official government records."[233]

In May 2017, Mikhail Fridman, Petr Aven, and German Khan – the owners of Alfa Bank – filed a defamation lawsuit against BuzzFeed for publishing the unverified dossier,[234][235] which alleges financial ties and collusion between Putin, Trump, and the three bank owners.[236][237] In October 2017, Fridman, Aven, and Khan also filed a libel suit against Fusion GPS and Glenn Simpson, for circulating the dossier among journalists and allowing it to be published.[238]

On January 9, 2018, it was reported that Cohen sued BuzzFeed and Fusion GPS for defamation over allegations about him in the dossier.[239] On April 19, 2018, it was reported that Cohen filed a motion to voluntarily drop his libel suits against BuzzFeed and Fusion GPS.[240][241] This happened after an April 9 raid of his home, office and hotel room by the FBI as part of a criminal investigation.[242]

Against Christopher Steele

In April 2018, Alfa Bank owners Fridman, Aven, and Khan filed a libel suit against Steele,[243] since the dossier alleges financial ties and collusion between Putin, Trump, and the three bank owners.[236][237] The lawsuit is filed in Washington D.C., and since none of the parties to the lawsuit are based in D.C., it is possible the lawsuit may not be able to move forward in that court.[243]

Reactions to specific allegations

Allegation of collusion with Russia

Frida Ghitis, writing in Foreign Policy magazine, commented: "The most important question the dossier raises is whether Trump colluded with Russia in its interference in the U.S. presidential election. That is crucial not just because it might constitute treason, but because if it did occur, that alone would amount to kompromat. Forget the prostitutes. If Trump and the Kremlin worked together, that fact alone gives Putin something with which to pressure Trump to act in Russia's interest."[244]

See also

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Further reading

External links