Welsh independence

March for Welsh independence held in Cardiff, May 2019

Welsh independence (Template:Lang-cy) is the political movement advocating for Wales to become a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom.

Wales was conquered during the 13th century by Edward I of England following the killing of Llywelyn the Last (Prince of Wales). Edward introduced the royal ordinance, the Statute of Rhuddlan, in 1284, causing Wales to lose its de facto independence and the native Welsh principality was incorporated into the Kingdom of England. Owain Glyndŵr, native Prince of Wales restored Welsh independence c. 1400–10, but Henry IV of England eventually regained control of Wales.

Henry VIII of England introduced the Laws in Wales Acts between 1535 and 1542, English law replaced Cyfraith Hywel (Welsh medieval law), and the Welsh principality and Marches were integrated into England. The Wales and Berwick Act defined "England" to include Wales in 1746, but the Welsh Language Act 1967, partly repealed this with the term "England and Wales".

The modern Welsh independence movement emerged during the mid-19th century, as did a movement for "home rule". Since 1999, Wales has been granted some legislative power as part of Welsh devolution from the UK parliament, and contemporary Welsh law within the English legal system. At present, the political parties Plaid Cymru, Propel, Gwlad, and the Wales Green Party support Welsh independence, as does the non-partisan YesCymru campaign group. Support for independence has increased from 14% in 2014 to its highest support of 46% in April 2021 when excluding don't knows. A YouGov poll in January 2021 found that 47% of people in Wales opposed holding a referendum on Welsh independence within the next five years with 31% supporting.

Location of Wales in the United Kingdom.

History

Conquest of Wales

See also: English rule in Wales and Welsh Wars of Independence

The title, "King of all Wales" was used as early as 798 AD, but Wales first became a fully unified independent country in 1055 under the leadership of Gruffydd ap Llywelyn, who ruled as King of Wales until 1063. Three years later the Norman invasion began, which briefly controlled much of Wales, but by 1100 Anglo-Norman control was reduced to the lowland Gwent, Glamorgan, Gower, and Pembroke, regions which experienced considerable Anglo-Norman colonisation, while the contested border region between the Welsh princes and Anglo-Norman barons became known as the Welsh Marches.

Owain Glyndwr statue in Corwen

In the 13th century, the last prince of Wales, Llywelyn the Last retained his rights to Wales by agreement with King Henry III in the Treaty of Montgomery in 1267. Henry's successor, Edward I, disapproved of Llywelyn's alliance with Simon de Montfort, who revolted along with other barons against the English king in the Second Barons' War of 1264 to 1267; and so in 1276 Edward's army forced Llywelyn into an agreement that saw Llywelyn withdraw his powers to Gwynedd only. In 1282, whilst attempting to gather support in Cilmeri near Builth Wells, Llywelyn was killed by one of Edward's soldiers. Llywelyn's brother Dafydd ap Gruffydd briefly led a force in Wales, but was captured and later hung, drawn and quartered by Edward, thus ending Welsh independence.

Since conquest, there have been Welsh rebellions against English rule. The last, and the most significant, revolt was the Glyndŵr Rising of 1400–1415, which briefly restored independence. Owain Glyndŵr held the first Welsh parliament (Senedd) in Machynlleth in 1404 where he was proclaimed Prince of Wales and a second parliament in 1405 in Harlech. After the eventual defeat of the Glyndŵr rebellion and a brief period of independence, it was not until 1999 that a Welsh legislative body was re-established as the National Assembly of Wales, which was renamed Senedd Cymru/Welsh Parliament in 2020.

In the 16th century, King Henry VIII of the Tudor dynasty (a royal house of Welsh origin) and the English parliament passed the Laws in Wales Acts, also referred to as the "Acts of Union", which incorporated Wales fully into the Kingdom of England.

Home rule movement (1881–present)

See also: Welsh devolution

Cymru Fydd

The Sunday Closing (Wales) Act 1881 was the first legislation to acknowledge that Wales had a separate politico-legal character from the rest of the English state. In 1886 Joseph Chamberlain proposed "Home Rule All Round" in the United Kingdom, and in the same year, the Cymru Fydd (Young Wales) movement was founded to further the cause. The main leaders were David Lloyd George (later Prime Minister), J. E. Lloyd, O. M. Edwards, T. E. Ellis (leader, MP for Merioneth, 1886–1899) and Beriah Gwynfe Evans. Its main objective was to gain self-government for Wales. Their goal was a devolved assembly, but the movement was disbanded in 1896 amid personal rivalries and rifts between Liberal representatives such as David Alfred Thomas.

National bodies

Support for home rule for Wales and Scotland amongst most political parties was historically strongest in 1918 following the independence of other European countries after the First World War, and the Easter Rising in Ireland, according to historian Dr Davies.

The late 19th and early 20th centuries saw the formation of multiple national Welsh bodies. These included University of Wales in 1893, Welsh Education Board in 1907, the National Library of Wales in 1911 and Welsh Board of Health in 1919. In 1920, the Church in Wales was disestablished and separated from the Church of England through the Welsh Church Act of 1914.

Plaid Cymru

In 1925 Plaid Genedlaethol Cymru ("the National Party of Wales") was founded; it was renamed Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales in 1945. The party's principles as defined in 1970 were (1) self government for Wales, (2) to safeguard the culture, traditions, language and economic position of Wales and (3) to secure membership for a self-governing Welsh state in the United Nations. The party's first Westminster seat (MP) was won by Gwynfor Evans in 1966. By 1974 the party had won three MP seats and in the 2019 general election it won four seats. Following the formation of the Senedd in 1999, Plaid Cymru won 17 of 60 seats in the initial Welsh election of 1999 and 13 seats in 2021.

In 1975, Plaid Cymru opposed remaining in the European Communities (EC). The party stated, at the time, that it felt that the EC's regional aid policies would "reconcile places like Wales to their subordinate position". Nevertheless, 65% of Welsh voters voted to remain in the EC in the 1975 referendum. The EC were incorporated into the European Union (EU) in 1993.

A Parliament for Wales

In the 1950s, the deterioration of the British Empire removed a sense of Britishness and there was a realisation that Wales was not as prosperous as south-east England and smaller European countries. Successive Conservative Party victories in Westminster led to suggestions that only through self-government could Wales achieve a government reflecting the votes of a Welsh electorate. The Tryweryn flooding which was voted against by almost every single Welsh MP, suggested that Wales as a nation was powerless. The Epynt clearance in 1940 has also been described as a "significant – but often overlooked – chapter in the history of Wales".

On 1 July 1955, a conference of all parties was called at Llandrindod by the New Wales Union (Undeb Cymru Fydd) to consider a national petition for a Parliament for Wales. The main leaders were Megan Lloyd George, the daughter of David Lloyd George, T. I. Ellis, and Sir Ifan ab Owen Edwards. According to the historian Dr William Richard Philip George, "Megan was responsible for removing much prejudice against the idea of a parliament for Wales". She later presented the petition with 250,000 signatures to the British government in April 1956.

A Plaid Cymru rally in Machynlleth in 1949 where the "Parliament for Wales in 5 years" campaign was started

The declaration of Cardiff as the capital of Wales in 1955, the Labour Party's 1959 commitment to appoint a Secretary of State for Wales, the creation of the Welsh Office in 1965, and the repeal of the Wales and Berwick Act 1746 two years later seemed to demonstrate a growing nationalist impetus. However, the heavy defeat for a proposed Welsh Assembly offered by Labour in the 1979 devolution referendum "suggested that the vast majority of the inhabitants of Wales had no desire to see their country having a national future".

In the early 1990s, Labour became committed to devolution for both Scotland and Wales, and in 1997 it was elected with a mandate to hold referendums on a Scottish Parliament and a Welsh Assembly. The proposed assembly won a narrow majority in the 1997 referendum.

The National Assembly for Wales was formed in 1999. Since the referendum on Welsh devolution in 1997 and formation of the Senedd (then National Assembly for Wales) in 1999, there has been increased support for and trust in the Senedd, with support for it to receive more devolved powers. Further powers have been granted to the Senedd by the Government of Wales Act 2006, the Wales Act 2014, and the Wales Act 2017.

Independence movement

The independence movement has been present in Wales since the mid-19th century and Plaid Cymru has also campaigned for it throughout the majority of the 20th century, since it was founded in 1925. In the 21st century, the question of Welsh independence became more prominent following increased discussion on a second Scottish independence referendum.

YesCymru logo

YesCymru

Main article: YesCymru

Non-partisan pro-independence group, YesCymru was founded in 2014 and open to the public for membership in 2016. In 2020, the group claimed that they had had a sudden rise in membership with 17,000 members by the end of 2020, partly influenced by the British government response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Referendum proposals

Main article: Proposed Welsh independence referendum

In 2017, there were plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence, Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood said there needed to be a national debate on Welsh independence. In July 2020, Plaid brought forward a motion to discuss a referendum on Welsh independence, but it was rejected by 43 votes to 9. On 24 October 2020, Wales Green Party members voted at their party conference that the party would support Welsh independence in the event of a referendum being held on whether or not Wales should become independent from the United Kingdom. In July 2020, Plaid Cymru tabled a motion for Welsh ministers to seek permission from Westminster for the right of the Senedd to legislate for a Welsh independence referendum. The members of Senedd rejected this motion by 43 votes to 9. This was the first time in history that Welsh independence was debated in the Senedd.

On 11 December 2020, Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price stated that if his party won a majority at the 2021 Senedd election, an independence referendum would be held in its first term in office. At Plaid's special conference on independence, held on 13 February 2021, party members formally approved Price's pledge to hold a referendum in or before 2026. In addition to Plaid, three other parties—the Wales Green Party, Gwlad and Propel—stood on a pro-independence platform at the Senedd election. In the 2021 Senedd Election, of 60 seats, Plaid Cymru won 5 Constituency and 8 regional. Gwlad and Propel both won 0.

In June 2022, the UK government announced its intention to repeal the Welsh Government's 2017 Trade Union Act, which bans agency staff from being used if public sector workers go on strike. Price called this a "power grab" and "potentially devolution's breaking point", and called for a referendum to be held in order to protect the Senedd's powers. In response, First Minister Mark Drakeford stated that in order for a referendum to be held, a pro-referendum party would have to win the most seats in an election.

Labour for an Independent Wales

Main article: Labour for an Independent Wales

Labour for an Independent Wales, which is a group of Labour Party members who "believe the best way to achieve a democratic socialist Wales is through independence", was formed in 2018. Welsh Labour member, Harriet Protheroe-Soltani has suggested that in order for the Welsh independence movement to create a supermajority and a cross-party movement, then the support of Welsh Labour members is required. In August 2020, a YouGov poll showed that 39% of Welsh Labour voters would vote for independence "if there was a referendum tomorrow". The Welsh Governance Centre also showed that in the last Senedd election over 40% of Labour voters supported independence.

Yes is More Gig

A sold-out "Yes is More" gig was held at the tramshed in Cardiff in April 2019, to open up the debate on independence. The gig included performances from Charlotte Church, Gruff Rhys and Cian Ciaran of the Super Furry Animals. Artists Gwenno Saunders, Boy Azooga, Astroid Boys and Los Blancos also performed. Ciaran said, "Maybe we can… maybe we should start talking about it, and discussing what kind of Wales we want and where Wales should be, Especially after Brexit and what's unfolded and become apparent. Irish unification on the corner maybe, Scottish independence on the way. Where does that leave Wales? West of England? Do we want to be left behind? Or do we want sovereign equality and an equal voice? As is one of the founding principles of the UN."

A march for Welsh independence on 11 May 2019 in Cardiff.

All Under One Banner Cymru and independence marches

Main article: All Under One Banner Cymru

On 11 May 2019, the first ever march in history for Welsh independence was organised by All Under One Banner Cymru (AUOB Cymru) in Cardiff, with an estimated 3,000 in attendance. On 27 July 2019, AUOB organised an independence march in Caernarfon. An estimate put the attendance at about 8,000. On 7 September 2019, a third AUOB Cymru was held in Merthyr Tydfil and attracted a crowd of 5,200.

A pro-independence march organised by AUOBCymru, Indy Fest Wrexham and YesCymru took place in Wrexham on 2 July 2022, the first such march since before the pandemic. A further march was held in Cardiff on 1 October 2022.

Influence of Brexit and Scottish independence

In January 2021, Guto Harri, who was Boris Johnson's communications chief when the latter was Mayor of London, wrote in The Sunday Times that "the idea of independence is taking off, with new recruits from very different backgrounds." He went on to say, "Brexiteers will hate me for saying this, but it is clear that some have contributed more to the cause of Welsh independence than my late father. The prospect of being attached to a leftover English rump of the UK, if Scotland and Northern Ireland head off, seems bleak to many people. And having argued against pooling sovereignty with our neighbours to facilitate trade and maximise our influence, Brexiteers should not be surprised if the same logic is applied in a different setting."

Richard Wyn Jones, director of the Welsh governance centre at Cardiff University, claimed that the cause of independence in Wales would be boosted significantly if Scotland chose independence first. Adam Price made the argument that if the UK Supreme Court allowed a referendum on Scottish independence to be held without Westminster's position, then Wales should be allowed to do the same. The judgement of the Supreme Court in November 2022 was that "If the UK Government and Parliament were unwilling to modify those reserved powers (as they did before the 2014 independence referendum) then “the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to legislate for a referendum on Scottish independence”.

Independent Constitution Commission

In September 2021, an open letter, signed by a number of groups who advocate for Welsh independence (including AUOBCymru, members of the former central committee of YesCymru as well as Welsh Football Fans for Independence), was sent to First Minister Mark Drakeford. Written in response to Drakeford's proposed constitutional commission, it stated that "Wales needs an independence commission, not one to salvage the union." The following month, the Independent Constitutional Commission was launched by the Welsh Labour government. Led by Professor Laura McAllister and former Archbishop of Wales, Rowan Williams, it will examine Wales' future relationship with the rest of the UK and will consider Welsh independence as well. Plaid Cymru called the commission the "most wide-ranging national conversation about Wales' future". The interim findings of the commission outlined three viable options for Wales including independence, to be explored in more depth in 2023. The report outlined the option of a Free Trade Association during a transition period to independence where an agreement could be made for e.g England responsibility for matters such as defence. The report also identified a confederation of Britain and Ireland as a potential option and key questions on independence to be addressed next year.

Future Cymru Forum

In the Plaid Cymru conference of 2022, leader Adam Price announced "The Future Cymru Forum" with the Wales Green Party to "consult, research and develop a ground-breaking body of work" on an independent Wales.

Arguments for independence

Westminster criticisms

As of the 2019 general election, 40 of 650 seats at the House of Commons are in Wales. Wales has the smallest average constituency size, with 56,000 constituents per MP compared to 72,200 per MP for England. Proposals revealed by the Boundary Commission in 2020 would reduce the number of Welsh seats from 40 down to 32 as part of efforts to equalise constituency sizes. Advocates for Welsh independence often cite the small number of seats in Wales as a justification for independence. They feel that this limits the ability of Wales to help make political decisions within the UK. Dissatisfaction with the House of Lords, where members are appointed rather than elected, has also been cited as a reason for independence. Further criticisms made of the Westminster system includes:

• Westminster government is not necessarily the government Wales voted for
• The Westminster first-past-the-post voting system ensures that a party can win a majority with only three in ten of voters
• Lack of Westminster concern for Welsh matters and lack of investment in Wales
• Welsh devolution powers are limited and UK government's refusal to deliver more devolution e.g. devolving air passenger duty
• Over 200 matters of government are decided outside Wales e.g. energy generation development, broadcasting
• Having no say in foreign wars
• Westminster retains parliamentary sovereignty and devolved powers can be taken away

Powers

The Senedd building, housing the Senedd (Senedd Cymru / Welsh Parliament)

A central argument made by those in favour of independence is that becoming an independent country would allow Wales to make its own decisions on policy areas such as foreign policy, taxation, and other non-devolved issues. It has also been suggested that the Welsh government would be able to be fully accountable for an independent Wales and that the Welsh electorate would have sole political representation and would elect a government voted for by Wales only. Further proposed powers include:

• Ability to develop infrastructure such as transport and broadband
• Ability to build large energy projects to generate electricity that could be sold
• Creation of a custom, bespoke Welsh constitution including human rights and rights within the judicial system
• Control over the Crown Estate to provide Welsh revenue and potential for even more green energy generation
• Making Wales safer by separation from UK foreign affairs
• Option for inclusion in the UK and Ireland Common Travel Area.
• A custom immigration system

Economy and trade

Video of Welsh Government COVID-19 press conference where Economy Minister Ken Skates, announces that the UK HMRC refused to share data with the Welsh Government.

See also: Economy of Wales

Welsh independence would also grant Wales far greater control over its economy. Proponents of independence argue that this would allow Wales to flourish as an independent country.

Research and analysis conducted by Professor John Doyle, Dublin City University showed that the Welsh fiscal balance of £2.6bn in the "early days of an independent Wales" would be approximately £2.6bn which is far less than the often quoted figure of 13.5bn. This equates to under 3.4% of GDP, which compares to an average of 3.2% for countries in the OECD [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development] in 2019.

It has been suggested that Wales could draw from the success of the Republic of Ireland following its independence from the UK. In 1922, Ireland was financially heavily dependent on Britain. Ireland is said to have benefitted from EU membership in 1973 and by International Monetary Fund and had an economic growth called the Celtic Tiger from the 1990s. It has also been noted that Wales is in a better economic state than 1920s Ireland, when it gained independence.

Further economic arguments made for independence include:

• Economic flexibility, more open to trade and adapt better to economic shock as a relatively small country as seen in the Flotilla effect.
• Full control over economic ability
• Powers for borrowing money
• Ability to form a development bank
• Ability to develop a competitive tax rate to draw industries
• A system of bank regulation, designed to protect citizens and not just the banks
• Addressing the fiscal deficit in Wales and reshaping the Welsh economy
• Welsh internal exports within the UK not published. These could be substantial
• Currency options: Pound, Welsh pound or euro all with pros and cons

Culture and sport

St David's Day, 2014.

See also: Proposed St David's Day bank holiday and Wales national cricket team § Proposals for standalone Wales team

• Bank holiday powers, including a proposed St David's Day bank holiday
• Better protection of Welsh culture
• Supporters of Welsh independence have argued that the ability to form Welsh teams in sports such as cricket or at the Olympics would represent a significant benefit.
• Better protection of the Welsh language

European Union membership

The United Kingdom left the EU in 2020 following a referendum on membership in 2016. At the referendum, 53% of Welsh voters voted to leave, though Plaid Cymru, the only pro-independence party with representatives in the Welsh Assembly, opposed leaving. While most people who are pro-independence also favour joining the EU, this is not a universal position. According to Ashcroft Polls, a "significant" number of Plaid voters also voted for Brexit.

Since Brexit, many pro-independence campaigners, including Plaid, have argued that joining the EU would be a benefit to leaving the UK, noting the success of small nations such as Lithuania, Slovakia and the Republic of Ireland within the EU. It has been suggested that an independent Wales would have the option to join the EU in an exclusive Welsh deal if this option benefits Wales. A January 2021 poll found that a majority of Welsh voters were in favour of rejoining the EU, (44% for and 38% against).

Single market and EFTA membership

An alternative option to EU membership is membership of the European Free Trade Association with a view to joining the European single market. Plaid Cymru has said that it will " explore the prospects for an independent Wales becoming a member of the European Free Trade Association, with a view to becoming part of the European Economic Area." With EFTA membership, an independent Wales would also be in a position to negotiate a free trade deal with England. Adam Price has stated that Plaid Cymru would seek to join the EFTA if Wales became independent. The Welsh Labour Government's current position it to remain outside both the EU and single market. In June 2022, Adam Price of Plaid Cymru called on the Welsh Labour Government to support rejoining the single market (without rejoining the EU) as was previously supported by both parties in the "Securing Wales's Future" white paper.

UK Confederation membership

Main article: Proposed United Kingdom Confederation

A United Kingdom Confederation has been proposed as a concept of constitutional reform of the United Kingdom, in which the countries of the United Kingdom; England, Scotland, Wales, as well as Northern Ireland become separate sovereign groups or states that pool certain key resources within a confederal system.

Defence

See also: Armed forces of Wales

Soldier of The Welsh Cavalry with a 40 mm Grenade Machine Gun in Poland as part of NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence

YesCymru's "Independence in your Pocket" book has also suggested a ‘Welsh Defence Forces’ along the Irish model as a potential option. It is likely to have a single command structure and include an army, navy and airborne services focused on land-based forces. These services could be supported by reservists, and a ‘Welsh Defence Forces’ is likely to include 5,000-7,000 staff.

Dr. Bleddyn Bowen, Lecturer in Defence Studies at King's College London has suggested the formation of Welsh National Security organisations in an independent Wales as well as their codified objectives. His proposed organisations are as follows: a Wales National Security Council led by the Welsh head of government/state; Wales Intelligence Service responsible for counter-terrorism, counter-intelligence, counter-subversion, counter-organised crime, allied intelligence liaison; a Wales Defence Force for air/maritime policing, air defence, disaster response, civil protection, special forces; a Wales Expeditionary combat and peacekeeping force involved in NATO, EU, United Nations missions; the promotion of training, exercises and testing for allies in Wales. Dr Bowen suggests that these organisations should have the following objectives: maintain global political economy to benefit the Welsh economy and Welsh quality of life, protect Welsh citizens and advance Welsh interests abroad, prevent and respond to hostile foreign activity in Wales, maintain relationships with European states and organisations and the US and contribute to the collective defence and security of allies.

Supporters of independence

Political parties with parliamentary representation in Wales

• Plaid Cymru

Other parties

• Wales Green Party (in the event a referendum is held on Welsh independence. The party does not actively campaign for independence but has stated it would do so if a referendum was called on the matter)
• Propel
• Gwlad

Individuals

• Eddie Butler (1957–2022) - Welsh rugby international and rugby commentator.
• Michael Sheen - Welsh actor who supports a discussion and referendum on Welsh independence.
• Charlotte Church - Welsh singer songwriter and political campaigner.
• Dafydd Iwan - Welsh folk singer, political campaigner and former politician.
• Bryn Fôn - Welsh singer, actor and producer.
• Neville Southall - Welsh football international and social justice activist.
• Iolo Williams - Welsh nature observer, author and television presenter.
• Julian Lewis Jones - Welsh actor best known for House of the Dragon.
• R. S. Thomas (1913–2000) - Welsh poet.
• Saunders Lewis (1893–1985) - Welsh political activist, poet, dramatist, historian and literary critic.
• Angharad Mair - Welsh television presenter and executive director of Tinopolis.
• Polly James (broadcaster) - Welsh broadcaster that supports independence if it helps to reduce child poverty.
• Kizzy Crawford - Welsh singer-songwriter.
• Myrddin ap Dafydd - Welsh writer, poet and publisher.
• Callum Scott Howells, Welsh actor
• The Barry Horns - Welsh football brass band.
• Ashton Hewitt - Professional Welsh rugby player.
• The Proclaimers - Scottish music duo.
• Mike Jenkins - Welsh poet.
• Sion Jobbins - Welsh author, academic and activist.
• Patrick Jones - Welsh poet.
• Glyndwr Jones - Welsh CEO, author and education professional argues for a confederation.
• Adwaith - Welsh band.
• Three band members of Goldie Lookin Chain
• Tudur Owen - Welsh presenter and comedian.
• David Buttress - Welsh founder and former CEO of the UK branch of Just Eat.
• Ffion Dafis - Welsh actress and novelist.
• Gwern Gwynfil - Head of YesCymru.
• Tadhg Hickey - Irish comedian.
• Eädyth Crawford - Welsh singer songwriter.
• Harriet Protheroe Soltani - Political activist with AUOBCymru and Labour for an Independent Wales.
• Evrah Rose - Welsh poet and activist.
• Adam Johannes - Of Real Democracy Now group.

Politicians

• Adam Price - Leader of Plaid Cymru
• Leanne Wood - Former leader of Plaid Cymru
• Gwynfor Evans (1912–2005) - Former leader of Plaid Cymru
• Rhun ap Iorwerth - Deputy leader of Plaid Cymru and former journalist
• Dafydd Wigley - Lord and former leader of Plaid Cymru
• Ieuan Wyn Jones - Former leader of Plaid Cymru
• Lewis Valentine (1893–1986) - First leader of Plaid Cymru
• Dafydd Elis-Thomas - First Llywydd, former leader of Plaid Cymru and independent MS
• Gwynoro Jones - Former Labour MP
• Elystan Morgan (1932–2021) - Former Labour MP and Lord that supported "dominion" status
• Carrie Harper - Plaid Cymru councillor

Key questions

The independent constitution commission identified "key questions" on the "viable" option of independence in its interim report. It aims to test potential solutions in the next phase, set to be published by the end of 2023. The key questions included addressing the following;

• Sustaining at least the level of public services on the basis of its own fiscal capacity.
• Financing matters currently controlled by UK government including pensions and benefits, and forming the capacity immigration, trade and overseas representation.
• Establish fiscal stability and credibility, selection of currency.
• Maintain confidence of the financial markets immediately after independence and in the long term.
• Operating the Wales/England border operate and any implications for businesses and citizens crossing.
• Implications of a national trade border with the rest of the UK, Europe and the world.
• Would an independent Wales join the EU and how long would this take.

Opponents of independence

Further information: Unionism in Wales and Unionism in the United Kingdom

Parties with parliamentary representation in Wales

• Welsh Labour
• Welsh Conservatives
• Welsh Liberal Democrats
• Co-operative Party

Other parties

• Liberal Party
• UK Independence Party
• Reform UK
• British National Party
• Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party
• Social Democratic Party
• Socialist Party Wales
• Christian Party

Arguments against independence

Reasons for continuing the union can be summarised as follows:

• Currency – In the event of independence for either Scotland or Wales, the issue over currency is brought up. A currency union between an independent Scotland and the remaining UK was ruled out in the lead-up to the 2014 referendum. Scotland can continue to use the pound sterling without a currency union, however will lack control over its monetary policy, such as interest rates as those would be the responsibility of the Bank of England, the UK's central bank, who may prioritise the UK's economy over Scotland, in the absence of a currency sharing agreement.
• Business – Some sources suggest some business uncertainty and potential restructuring of businesses so that headquarters are relocated in the country where the greatest amount of business occurs.
• "A stronger voice" and money from other parts of the UK – former First Minister of Wales and Leader of Welsh Labour from 2009 to 2018, Carwyn Jones, argued in 2012 that Wales being part of the UK "gives us a much stronger voice on the world stage". He also argued that "money is transferred from richer parts of the UK into Wales".

Alternatives

• Further devolution of powers – More powers devolved from the Parliament of the United Kingdom to Wales and its devolved government. Devolution of powers to either local councils or a regional collection of them, such as North Wales has also been advocated.
• Decentralising power and wealth across the UK, including to and within Wales – This argument not only supports greater decentralisation to Wales, but also more power decentralised within Wales and the rest of the UK to local authorities and regions. For example, it has been argued that too much power is centralised in Cardiff, which could be handed out to the regions of Wales.
• Devolution system reform – An April 2022 article in The Economist argued that "a better combination of devolution and centralisation would compel governments to work together". The author argues that the existing devolution settlement "is making the United Kingdom chronically miserable", as politics in Scotland and Northern Ireland are "dominated by unresolved arguments about the constitution", neglecting local issues, such as healthcare and schooling. The editor suggests that powers were "crudely handed out" to devolved bodies and the resulting politics "favour blaming the centre [Westminster] rather than working with it". Leading to clashes over issues such as new nuclear power stations or gas drilling as energy policy is reserved to Westminster but planning is devolved. An "exchange" of powers to allow for better co-ordination, such as increasing devolved say over immigration and EU relations in return for increased UK-devolved cooperation in major transport links and energy security, as well as direct Westminster involvement in devolution failings over health and education, was advocated.
• Federal system – Federalism in the United Kingdom has been touted as an alternative political system to prevent a possible breakup.

Opinion polling

Summary

A graphical summary of yes/no independence polls, excluding non-standard questions.

Yes/No Independence polls

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation & client	Sample size	Should Wales be an independent country?			Lead	Notes
			Yes	No	Undecided
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov / Barn Cymru	1,042	22%	55%	14%	33%
21–25 November 2022	YouGov / YesCymru	1,033	23%	54%	13%	31%
20–22 September 2022	YouGov / Barn Cymru	1,014	24%	52%	14%	28%	Age 16+
16–19 August 2022	YouGov / The Sunday Times	1,025	30%	48%	13%	18%	Non-standard question: If Liz Truss became Prime Minister of the UK
16–19 August 2022	YouGov / The Sunday Times	1,025	25%	53%	12%	28%
12–16 June 2022	YouGov / ITV Wales	1,020	25%	50%	25%	25%
25 Feb – 1 March 2022	YouGov/ Barn Cymru	1,086	21%	53%	26%	32%	Age 16+
5 May 2021	Savanta ComRes	1,002	30%	55%	15%	25%	Taken with 29 April – 4 May 2021 poll, online
2–4 May 2021	YouGov / Welsh Barometer	1,071	21%	55%	14%	34%
29 April – 4 May 2021	Savanta ComRes	1,002	27%	58%	14%	31%	Online
23–28 April 2021	Savanta ComRes	1,002	42%	49%	8%	7%	46% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever level of support.
18–21 April 2021	YouGov	1,142	22%	54%	24%	32%	Age 16+
9–19 April 2021	Opinium / Sky News	2,005	28%	52%	19%	24%
16–19 March 2021	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,174	22%	55%	23%	33%	Age 16+
18–22 February 2021	Savanta ComRes / ITV News	1,003	35%	55%	10%	20%	39% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever support at the time. Age 16+.
19–22 February 2021	WalesOnline / YouGov	1,059	25%	50%	14%	25%	Age 16+
18–21 January 2021	The Sunday Times / YouGov	1,059	23%	52%	25%	29%	Age 16+
11–14 January 2021	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,018	22%	53%	25%	31%	Age 16+
26–29 October 2020	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,013	23%	53%	25%	30%	Age 16+
24–27 August 2020	YesCymru / YouGov	1,044	25%	52%	23%	27%
29 July – 7 August 2020	YesCymru / YouGov	1,044	26%	55%	19%	29%	Age 16+
29 May – 1 June 2020	ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni	1,021	25%	54%	21%	29%
20–26 January 2020	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,037	21%	57%	22%	36%	Age 16+
6–9 December 2019	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,020	17%	60%	23%	43%
22–25 November 2019	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,116	20%	57%	22%	37%
31 October – 4 November 2019	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,032	22%	57%	21%	35%
10–14 October 2019	Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov	1,032	21%	57%	23%	36%
6–10 September 2019	Plaid Cymru / YouGov	1,039	24%	52%	23%	28%
6–10 September 2019	Plaid Cymru / YouGov	1,039	33%	48%	20%	15%	Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European Union
7–14 December 2018	Sky News Data: Wales	1,014	17%	67%	16%	50%
30 May – 6 June 2018	YouGov	2,016	19%	65%	16%	46%
July 2016	ITV Wales / YouGov	1,010	15%	65%	20%	50%
July 2016	ITV Wales / YouGov	1,010	28%	53%	20%	25%	Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European Union
July 2016	ITV Wales / YouGov	1,010	19%	61%	21%	42%	Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK
8–11 September 2014	ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff University	>1,000	17%	70%	13%	53%	The week before the Scottish independence referendum
April 2014	YouGov	1,000	12%	74%	14%	62%
March 2013	ITV Wales / YouGov	Unknown	10%	62%	28%	52%	Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK

"0-10" Independence polls – (Respondents asked to rate 0–10. 0–4 Against, 5 indifferent, 6–10 In Favour. "Don't Know" removed)

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation & client	Sample size	Total favourable	In favour					Indifferent	Against					Total unfavourable
				10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0
10–15 May 2019	YesCymru / YouGov	1,133	36%	14%	4%	5%	6%	7%	17%	5%	6%	6%	2%	28%	47%
9–12 May 2017	YesCymru / YouGov	1,000	29%	10%	2%	6%	6%	5%	18%	4%	6%	7%	5%	31%	53%

Devolution extent polls

Date(s) Conducted	Polling organisation	Support independence (%)	Support more powers for the Senedd (%)	Support status quo (%)	Support fewer powers for the Senedd (%)	Support abolition of the Senedd (%)	Indifferent/Did not reply/Other (%)
28 January – 21 February 2021	BBC / ICM Unlimited	14	35	27	3	15	6
29 May – 1 June 2020	ITV Wales & Cardiff University / YouGov	16	20	24	5	22	14
4–22 February 2020	BBC / ICM	11	43	25	2	14	3
7–23 February 2019	BBC / ICM	7	46	27	3	13	4
December 2018	SkyData	8	40	23	4	18	7
February 2017	BBC / ICM	6	44	29	3	13	4
February 2016	BBC / ICM	6	43	30	3	13	4
February 2015	BBC / ICM	6	40	33	4	13	4
September 2014	BBC / ICM	3	49	26	2	12	6
February 2014	BBC / ICM	5	37	28	3	23	5
2013	BBC / ICM	9	36	28	2	20	4
2012	BBC / ICM	7	36	29	2	22	4
2011	BBC / ICM	11	35	18	17	15	4
2010	BBC / ICM	11	40	13	18	13	4

Side by side polls – Independence vs. No devolved government in Wales

Date(s) conducted	Polling Organisation & client	Sample size	Independence (inc. sub-samples)					No devolved government (inc. sub-samples)					Indifferent / no reply (%)
			Total (%)	Conservative (%)	Labour (%)	Lib Dem (%)	Plaid Cymru (%)	Total (%)	Conservative (%)	Labour (%)	Lib Dem (%)	Plaid Cymru (%)
29 May – 1 June 2020	ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni	1,021	33%	12%	45%	39%	87%	45%	79%	35%	53%	4%	21%

See also

Wales

• Culture of Wales
• History of Wales
• Welsh nationalism
• Parliament for Wales Campaign
• Yes for Wales
• Welsh Wars of Independence
• Glyndŵr Rising
• List of movements in Wales

Related movements

• Scottish independence
• Yes Scotland
• United Ireland
• Ireland's Future
• English independence
• Potential breakup of the United Kingdom
• List of active separatist movements in Europe

Further reading

• Koch, John T. (2006). Celtic Culture: A Historical Encyclopedia. ABC-CLIO.