2016 United States presidential election in Montana

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2016 United States presidential election in Montana

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout74.44% Increase[citation needed]
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Gary Johnson June 2016.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Gary Johnson
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Home state New York New York New Mexico
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Bill Weld
Electoral vote 3 0 0
Popular vote 279,240 177,709 28,037
Percentage 56.17% 35.75% 5.64%

Montana Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
County results
Trump:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Clinton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Montana was won by Republican Donald Trump and running mate Mike Pence, on November 8, 2016, with 56.2% of the vote, as part of the 2016 general election. Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine received 35.7% of the vote.[1] Montana assigns all of its three Electoral votes to the winner of the state's popular vote.

The Montana primary was on June 7, 2016, selecting nominees for the two major parties, as well as the Libertarian Party. Registered members of each party may only vote in their party's primary, while voters who are unaffiliated may choose any one primary in which to vote.

Trump's margin was 20.5 percentage points, exceeding Mitt Romney's 13.7 point win in 2012, and John McCain's 2.4 point win in 2008. Republicans have won Montana in every presidential election since 1996. Libertarian nominee and third-party candidate Gary Johnson received 5.6% of the vote.

Primary elections[edit]

Democratic primary[edit]

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Montana Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 65,156 51.56% 11 1 12
Hillary Clinton 55,805 44.16% 10 5 15
No preference 5,415 4.28% 0 0 0
Uncommitted N/A 0 0 0
Total 126,376 100% 21 6 27
Source: The Green Papers, Montana Secretary of State - Official Primary Results

Republican primary[edit]

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Montana Republican primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 115,594 73.68% 27 0 27
Ted Cruz (withdrawn) 14,682 9.36% 0 0 0
John Kasich (withdrawn) 10,777 6.87% 0 0 0
No preference 7,369 4.70% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 5,192 3.31% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,274 2.09% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 156,888 100.00% 27 0 27
Source: The Green Papers

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Results by county[edit]

Preliminary general election results for president as of 14 December 2016 by county. Totals exclude 2,621 write-in votes. [7]

County Clinton% Clinton# Trump% Trump# Others% Others# Total
Beaverhead County 23.57% 1143 69.15% 3353 7.28% 353 4849
Big Horn County 49.57% 2094 43.87% 1853 6.56% 277 4224
Blaine County 45.00% 1202 47.47% 1268 7.53% 201 2671
Broadwater County 18.30% 573 74.97% 2348 6.74% 211 3132
Carbon County 30.64% 1828 62.81% 3748 6.55% 391 5967
Carter County 8.99% 70 87.03% 678 3.98% 31 779
Cascade County 35.41% 12175 57.10% 19632 7.49% 2577 34384
Chouteau County 28.27% 732 64.85% 1679 6.88% 178 2589
Custer County 22.68% 1176 70.53% 3657 6.79% 352 5185
Daniels County 17.59% 168 76.44% 730 5.97% 57 955
Dawson County 18.17% 787 76.66% 3320 5.17% 224 4331
Deer Lodge County 49.07% 2058 42.04% 1763 8.89% 373 4194
Fallon County 10.38% 154 86.19% 1279 3.44% 51 1484
Fergus County 20.58% 1202 73.10% 4269 6.32% 369 5840
Flathead County 28.59% 13293 65.04% 30240 6.37% 2961 46494
Gallatin County 45.50% 24246 44.66% 23802 9.84% 5244 53292
Garfield County 4.75% 34 91.20% 653 4.05% 29 716
Glacier County 61.67% 3121 32.01% 1620 6.32% 320 5061
Golden Valley County 15.07% 71 77.49% 365 7.43% 35 471
Granite County 26.59% 472 67.15% 1192 6.25% 111 1775
Hill County 36.90% 2371 54.12% 3478 8.98% 577 6426
Jefferson County 29.96% 1998 62.64% 4177 7.39% 493 6668
Judith Basin County 19.57% 235 72.61% 872 7.83% 94 1201
Lake County 36.43% 4776 57.44% 7530 6.13% 804 13110
Lewis and Clark County 42.28% 14478 49.34% 16895 8.39% 2872 34245
Liberty County 21.55% 206 73.01% 698 5.44% 52 956
Lincoln County 21.98% 2041 72.48% 6729 5.54% 514 9284
Madison County 24.88% 1180 69.51% 3297 5.61% 266 4743
McCone County 14.53% 154 81.32% 862 4.15% 44 1060
Meagher County 19.79% 193 74.77% 729 5.44% 53 975
Mineral County 25.91% 519 66.40% 1330 7.69% 154 2003
Missoula County 53.44% 31543 37.70% 22250 8.87% 5233 59026
Musselshell County 13.74% 332 81.42% 1967 4.84% 117 2416
Park County 38.63% 3595 53.51% 4980 7.86% 731 9306
Petroleum County 9.32% 30 86.34% 278 4.35% 14 322
Phillips County 14.72% 318 79.73% 1723 5.55% 120 2161
Pondera County 27.17% 738 66.24% 1799 6.59% 179 2716
Powder River County 12.08% 127 84.11% 884 3.81% 40 1051
Powell County 19.72% 551 72.62% 2029 7.66% 214 2794
Prairie County 14.51% 100 80.70% 556 4.79% 33 689
Ravalli County 27.85% 6223 66.28% 14810 5.88% 1313 22346
Richland County 13.84% 671 80.63% 3908 5.53% 268 4847
Roosevelt County 42.76% 1560 49.26% 1797 7.98% 291 3648
Rosebud County 28.69% 987 65.49% 2253 5.81% 200 3440
Sanders County 20.61% 1218 72.52% 4286 6.87% 406 5910
Sheridan County 26.04% 477 67.74% 1241 6.22% 114 1832
Silver Bow County 52.43% 8619 38.79% 6376 8.78% 1444 16439
Stillwater County 18.66% 908 75.24% 3661 6.10% 297 4866
Sweet Grass County 19.14% 402 75.95% 1595 4.90% 103 2100
Teton County 25.42% 808 68.26% 2170 6.32% 201 3179
Toole County 19.80% 402 73.74% 1497 6.45% 131 2030
Treasure County 13.32% 59 79.23% 351 7.45% 33 443
Valley County 22.86% 886 69.61% 2698 7.53% 292 3876
Wheatland County 18.96% 179 74.36% 702 6.67% 63 944
Wibaux County 10.24% 55 86.22% 463 3.54% 19 537
Yellowstone County 32.35% 22171 59.70% 40920 7.96% 5453 68544

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican[edit]

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic[edit]

Analysis[edit]

Like every Republican nominee since 1996, Donald Trump carried Montana's three electoral votes. He won by a large margin, and he swept most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, by staggering margins sometimes exceeding 60 points. The eastern part of the state has benefitted from the recent energy boom in neighboring North Dakota, and its populace is suspect of the environmental movement championed by Democrats in recent elections.

Counties in the western part of the state are also traditionally Republican, with a ranching-based economy heavily dependent on the raising and production of cattle and hay, particularly in the counties bordering Idaho such as Beaverhead County and Ravalli County. However, an influx of retirees from the West Coast have made the western region more competitive in recent elections.[8]

The only significant counties won by Clinton were Missoula County, where the city of Missoula is located, Gallatin County, where Bozeman is located, and Big Horn County and Glacier County, which are both majority Native American. While sweeping most of the rural, majority white conservative counties of the state, Trump also won in Lewis and Clark County where the capital city of Helena is located, in neighboring Cascade County where Great Falls is located, and in Yellowstone County where the city of Billings is located.[9]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Montana Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 11, 2016.
  2. ^ Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  3. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  4. ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  5. ^ Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  6. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  7. ^ 2016 Statewide General Election Canvass (PDF) Montana Secretary Of State Linda McCulloch. Accessed December 14, 2016.
  8. ^ Cohen, Micah (2012-06-21). "Presidential Geography: Montana". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2016-11-26.
  9. ^ "Montana Election Results 2016". Retrieved 2016-11-26.

External links[edit]