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Revision as of 01:43, 12 December 2016

2016 U.S. presidential election
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In late 2016, the United States Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence representing seventeen U.S. intelligence agencies stated Russia interfered in the 2016 United States presidential election.[1] The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) stated Russia influenced the election to help elect Donald Trump as President of the United States. This assessment was underpinned by intelligence agencies' statement that actors "one step removed" from the Russian government were involved in the hacking and release of information detrimental to Hillary Clinton's campaign for the presidency and the belief that the Republican National Committee was hacked but the information not released.[2][3]

According to a senior U.S. official who received a brief on an intelligence presentation provided to the U.S. Senate, the conclusions were the "consensus view" of multiple intelligence agencies.[3] In contrast to the CIA's assessment, a senior Federal Bureau of Investigation counterintelligence official said that Russia's motives were more "fuzzy" and "ambiguous."[4] Senior U.S. officials and the U.S. intelligence agencies have stated they have "high confidence",[5] that the Russian government was involved in providing WikiLeaks with thousands of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta with the goal of influencing the outcome of the election.[5][2][6][7][8][9] The Russian government and WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange have said Russia was not involved.[10][11][12][13]

On October 7, 2016, the United States Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence representing 17 intelligence agencies stated that the U.S. intelligence community was confident that the Russian government directed the breaches and the release of the obtained material.[1] The intelligence agencies said this was in an attempt to "... interfere with the U.S. election process."[14][15][16] On December 9, U.S. intelligence concluded that the Russian government was involved in hacking servers of the Republican National Committee (RNC) – but said they did not release the content of the hack.[17]

On December 9, President Barack Obama ordered a comprehensive "lessons learned" report on possible Russian interventions in elections going back to 2008.[17][18][19] Several U.S. senators – including Republicans John McCain, Richard Burr, and Lindsey Graham – demanded a congressional investigation.[20] Other Republicans, such as Rand Paul of Kentucky and James Lankford of Oklahoma also indicated their support for a full investigation, while Republican House Intelligence Committee chair Devin Nunes stated that there was "lots of circumstantial evidence" but "no clear evidence" on Russia's motivations.[4][21] President-elect Donald Trump attacked the U.S. intelligence services and ridiculed the assertions of Russian intervention in a statement released by his transition team. Trump stated: "these are the same people that said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction."[22][23] At the same time, Trump was considering Rex Tillerson, the chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobile Corporation, who has close connections to the Kremlin and has been awarded Russia's Order of Friendship by Vladimir Putin, for the position of Secretary of State. According to the Wall Street Journal "few US citizens are closer to Mr Putin than Mr Tillerson", while The Guardian wrote that a Tillerson appointment would "confirm Vladimir Putin as one of the strategic victors of the US presidential election."[24]

Background

Internet Research Agency

See also: Trolls from Olgino and Web brigades
An aerial view of the Smolny Convent in Saint Petersburg
A Russian propaganda "troll farm" was traced back to Saint Petersburg.

Beginning in fall 2014, The New Yorker writer Adrian Chen performed a six-month investigation into Russian propaganda online by a group called the Internet Research Agency.[25] The New Yorker reported it was widely documented in Russian media that Evgeny Prigozhin, a close associate of Vladimir Putin, was behind the operation which hired hundreds of individuals to work in Saint Petersburg.[25]

The group was regarded as a "troll farm", a term used to refer to propaganda efforts controlling many accounts online with the aim of artificially providing a semblance of a grassroots organization.[25] Chen reported that Internet trolling was used by the Russian government as a tactic largely after observing the social media organization of the 2011 protests against Putin.[25] Chen interviewed Russian reporters and activists who said the end goal of propaganda by the Russian government was to sow discord and chaos online.[25]

Counter-Disinformation Team scrapped pre-election

The International Business Times reported the United States Department of State planned to use a unit formed with the intention of combating disinformation from the Russian government, and that it was disbanded in September 2015 after department heads missed the scope of propaganda before the 2016 U.S. election.[26] The U.S. State Department put 8 months into developing the unit before scrapping it.[26]

Titled Counter-Disinformation Team, it would have been a reboot of the Active Measures Working Group set up by the Reagan Administration.[27][28] The Counter-Disinformation Team was set up under the Bureau of International Information Programs.[27][28] Work began on the Counter-Disinformation Team in 2014, with the intention to combat propaganda from Russian sources such as Russia Today.[27][28] A beta website was ready and staff were hired by the U.S. State Department for the unit prior to its cancellation.[27][28] U.S. Intelligence officials explained to former National Security Agency analyst and counterintelligence officer John R. Schindler that the Obama Administration decided to cancel the unit as they were afraid of antagonizing Russia.[27][28] A State Department representative told the International Business Times after being contacted regarding the closure of the unit, that the U.S. was disturbed by propaganda from Russia, and the strongest defense was sincere communication.[26]

U.S. Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Richard Stengel was point person for the unit before it was canceled.[27][28] Stengel previously wrote about disinformation by Russia Today.[29] After U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called Russia Today: a "propaganda bullhorn" for Vladimir Putin,[30] Russia Today insisted the State Department give an "official response".[29][31] Stengel wrote Russia Today engaged in a "disinformation campaign".[29][31]

Russian trolls support for Trump

In December 2015 Adrian Chen noticed pro-Russia accounts suddenly became supportive of Trump.

Adrian Chen observed a pattern in December 2015 where pro-Russian accounts became supportive of 2016 U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump.[32] Andrew Weisburd and Foreign Policy Research Institute fellow and senior fellow at the Center for Cyber and Homeland Security at George Washington University, Clint Watts,[33] wrote for The Daily Beast in August 2016 that Russian propaganda fabricated articles were popularized by social media.[32] Weisburd and Watts documented how disinformation spread from Russia Today and Sputnik News, "the two biggest Russian state-controlled media organizations publishing in English", to pro-Russian accounts on Twitter.[32]

Citing research by Adrian Chen, Weisburd and Watts compared Russian tactics during the 2016 U.S. election to Soviet Union Cold War strategies.[32] They referenced the 1992 United States Information Agency report to the United States Congress, which warned about Russian propaganda called active measures.[32] Weisburd and Watts concluded social media made active measures easier.[32] Institute of International Relations Prague senior fellow and scholar on Russian intelligence, Mark Galeotti, agreed the Kremlin operations were a form of active measures.[34] The Guardian reported in November 2016 the most strident Internet promoters of Trump were not U.S. citizens but paid Russian propagandists.[35] The paper estimated there were several thousand trolls involved.[35]

Weisburd and Watts collaborated with colleague J. M. Berger and published a follow-up to their Daily Beast article in online magazine War on the Rocks, titled: "Trolling for Trump: How Russia is Trying to Destroy Our Democracy".[33][36][37] They researched 7,000 pro-Trump social media accounts over a two-and-a-half year period.[36] Their research detailed Internet trolling techniques to denigrate critics of Russian activities in Syria, and to proliferate falsehoods about Clinton's health.[36] Watts said the propaganda targeted the alt-right movement, the right wing, and fascist groups.[33] BuzzFeed News reported Kremlin-financed trolls were open about spreading Russian disinformation.[38]

On November 24, 2016, The Washington Post reported the Foreign Policy Research Institute stated Russian propaganda exacerbated criticism of Clinton and support for Trump.[39][40][41] The strategy involved social media, paid Internet trolls, botnets, and websites in order to denigrate Clinton.[39][40][41] Watts stated Russia's goal was to damage trust in the U.S. government.[39] Conclusions by Watts and colleagues Andrew Weisburd and J.M. Berger were confirmed by research from the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and by the RAND Corporation.[39]

U.S. intelligence conclusions

Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper said the Russian propaganda operation was a response to the 2011–13 Russian protests.

Computer security company FireEye concluded Russia used social media as a weapon to influence the U.S. election.[42] FireEye Chairman David DeWalt said the 2016 operation was a new development in cyberwarfare by Russia.[42] FireEye CEO Kevin Mandia stated Russian cyberwarfare changed after fall 2014, from covert to overt tactics with decreased operational security.[42]

The U.S. Intelligence Community tasked resources debating why Putin chose summer 2016 to escalate active measures influencing U.S. politics.[43] Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper said after the 2011–13 Russian protests, Putin's confidence in his viability as a politician was damaged, and Putin responded with the propaganda operation.[43] Former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officer Patrick Skinner explained the goal was to spread uncertainty.[44] U.S. Congressman Adam Schiff, Ranking Member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, commented on Putin's aims, and said U.S. intelligence agencies were concerned with Russian propaganda.[43] Speaking about disinformation that appeared in Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, Schiff said there was an increase of the same behavior in the U.S.[43] Schiff concluded Russian propaganda operations would continue against the U.S. after the election.[43]

In a joint statement on October 7, 2016, the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a statement on Russian influence on the 2016 U.S. presidential election.[1] The statement read: "The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from U.S. persons and institutions, including from U.S. political organizations. These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the U.S. election process."[1] The statement represented the conclusions of 17 intelligence organizations within the United States government and the United States Secretary of Homeland Security.[1]

On October 31, 2016, The New York Times stated that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) had been examining possible connections between Trump and Russia "for much of the summer," and was unable to find "any conclusive or direct link." Moreover, "even the hacking into Democratic emails, FBI and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump."[45]

By December 2, "multiple sources with knowledge of the investigation into Russia's hacking" told CNN that the U.S. Intelligence Community was "increasingly confident that Russian meddling in the US election was intended to steer the election toward Trump, rather than simply to undermine or in other ways disrupt the political process."[46]

On December 9, the CIA told U.S. legislators the U.S. Intelligence Community concluded Russia conducted operations during the 2016 U.S. election to assist Donald Trump in winning the presidency.[47][48][49] Multiple U.S intelligence agencies concluded people with direct ties to the Kremlin gave WikiLeaks hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and additional sources such as John Podesta, campaign chairman for Hillary Clinton.[47] These intelligence organizations additionally concluded Russia hacked the Republican National Committee (RNC) as well as the DNC—and chose not to leak information obtained from the RNC.[17] A senior administration official told The New York Times: "We now have high confidence that they hacked the D.N.C. and the R.N.C., and conspicuously released no documents [from the R.N.C.]".[17] An unnamed official disputed this statement and stated that "attempts to penetrate the Republican committee's systems ... were not successful," citing "an FBI investigation into the matter."[17] The CIA said the foreign intelligence agents were Russian operatives previously known to the U.S.[47] Writing in The New York Times on December 9, David E. Sanger and Scott Shane described the ambiguity surrounding the information then publicly available: "It is also far from clear that Russia's original intent was to support Mr. Trump, and many intelligence officials—and former officials in Mrs. Clinton's campaign—believe that the primary motive of the Russians was to simply disrupt the campaign and undercut public confidence in the integrity of the vote."[17] The CIA, however, told U.S. Senators it was "quite clear" that Russia's intentions were to help Trump.[48]

Russia and Wikileaks denial

Putin representative Dmitry Peskov denied Russian interference in the election.[12]

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange said Russia was not involved, and said that there was no proof they were behind the attack.[10][11] The Russian government said it had no involvement.[12] In a statement given to Reuters in Moscow, Dmitry Peskov representative for Putin said: "I completely rule out a possibility that the (Russian) government or the government bodies have been involved in this."[12]

Trump response

Trump's transition team dismissed the CIA conclusions, remarking: "These are the same people that said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction."[17]

The RNC has denied any intrusion into its servers, while acknowledging that the email accounts of individual Republicans (including Colin Powell) were breached. Over 200 emails from Colin Power were posted on the website DC Leaks.[17][50] The FBI did notify the Illinois Republican Party in June that some of its email accounts may have been hacked.[51]

On December 11, 2016, The Guardian reported that members of the intelligence community feared reprisals from Donald Trump once he takes office, in response to the reports that have been issued. Serving officers pointed to Trump's attempts to identify civil servants in the Department of Energy "who have attended climate change conferences" as a parallel example. Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer said "There is not just smoke here. There is a blazing 10-alarm fire, the sirens are wailing, the Russians provided the lighter fluid, and Trump is standing half-burnt and holding a match". Other serving officers stated that retaliation by Trump was a near certainty.[52]

Chief of staff-designate for Trump, Reince Priebus, appeared on Meet the Press on December 11, 2016, and discounted the CIA conclusions.[1] Additionally, Priebus disregarded the October 7, 2016 joint statement from the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence that they were confident the Russian government was behind hacks of the Democratic National Committee, and John Podesta.[1] Fact-checking website Politifact.com cited the joint statement from October 7, 2016 representing 17 intelligence agencies, and the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, and concluded of Priebus's statements: "flies in the face of plain words from two of the highest ranking intelligence and security officials. We rate it False."[1]

U.S. legislative response

U.S. Senate

U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Republican Senator John McCain planned to work with U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Republican Senator Richard Burr on investigating Russian involvement in the election.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said he would conduct a sweeping investigation into the Russian propaganda operation.

Members of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee traveled to Ukraine and Poland in 2016 and learned about Russian operations to influence their affairs.[53] U.S. Senator Angus King told the Portland Press Herald that tactics used by Russia during the 2016 U.S. election were analogous to those used against other countries.[53]

On November 30, 2016, King joined a letter in which seven members of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee asked President Obama to publicize more information from the intelligence community on Russia's role in the U.S. election.[53][54] In the letter to President Obama, the senators called upon the president to allow the declassification and release of "additional information concerning the Russian Government and the U.S. election."[46] In an interview with CNN, Senator King warned against ignoring the problem, saying: "I don't consider this a partisan issue. We can't just let it go and say that's history because they will keep doing it."[55]

Representatives in the U.S. Congress took action to monitor the National security of the United States by advancing legislation to monitor propaganda.[56][57] On November 30, 2016, legislators approved a measure within the National Defense Authorization Act to ask the U.S. State Department act against propaganda with an inter-agency panel.[56][57] The legislation authorized funding of $160 million over a two-year-period.[56] The initiative was developed through a bipartisan bill, the Countering Foreign Propaganda and Disinformation Act, written by U.S. Senators Republican Rob Portman and Democrat Chris Murphy.[56] Portman urged more U.S. government action to counter propaganda.[56] Murphy said after the election it was apparent the U.S. needed additional tactics to fight Russian propaganda.[56] U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee member Ron Wyden said frustration over covert Russian propaganda was bipartisan.[56]

Republican U.S. Senators stated they planned to hold hearings and investigate Russian influence on the 2016 U.S. elections.[58] By doing so they went against the preference of incoming Republican President-elect Donald Trump, who downplayed any potential Russian meddling in the election.[58] U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain and U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr discussed plans for collaboration on investigations of Russian cyberwarfare during the election.[58] U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker planned a 2017 investigation.[58] Senator Lindsey Graham indicated he would conduct a sweeping investigation in the 115th Congress.[58]

Republican Senator James Lankford agreed with John McCain and Lindsey Graham that there should be a bipartisan investigation into the Russian influence on the election.[59]

On December 11, 2016, top-ranking bipartisan members of the U.S. Senate issued a joint statement together on December 11, 2016 responding to the intelligence assessments Russia influenced the election.[60][61][62] The two Republican signers were Senators Graham and McCain, both members of the Armed Services Committee; the two Democratic signers were incoming Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Senator Jack Reed, the ranking member of the Armed Services Committee.[60][61][62][63] The statement by the four said that Russian interference in the election "should alarm every American" and that:

Democrats and Republicans must work together, and across the jurisdictional lines of the Congress, to examine these recent incidents thoroughly and devise comprehensive solutions to deter and defend against further cyberattacks. This cannot become a partisan issue. The stakes are too high for our country. We are committed to working in this bipartisan manner, and we will seek to unify our colleagues around the goal of investigating and stopping the grave threats that cyberattacks conducted by foreign governments pose to our national security.[63]

In a response to Trump's disregard for the U.S. intelligence assessments on Russia, Republican Senator John McCain said: "The facts are there."[64] Senator McCain called for a special select committee of the U.S. Senate to investigate Russian meddling in the election.[65] Republican Senator and Senate Intelligence Committee member James Lankford agreed looking into Russian influence on the elections should be cooperative between parties, and tweeted: "Cybersecurity investigation of Russian interference can't be partisan."[59]

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, the outgoing leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus, said that the FBI had covered up information about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election in a bid to swing the election in Trump's favor. Reid stated that FBI Director James Comey "has let the country down for partisan purposes," called Comey the "new J. Edgar Hoover," and called for Comey's resignation.[66]

U.S. House of Representatives

Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, said through a spokeswoman that "foreign intervention in our elections is unacceptable" but stopped short of calling for a congressional investigation into the Russian role in the election.[67]

The U.S. House Intelligence Committee chairman Congressman Devin Nunes stated that "There is no clear evidence — even now" that Russia acted to help Trump. Nunes stated "There’s a lot of innuendo, lots of circumstantial evidence, that’s it."[13]

President Obama order

Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul said Russian interference in the election was "disturbing".[68]

On December 9, 2016, President Obama ordered the United States Intelligence Community to conduct an investigation into Russia's attempts to influence the 2016 U.S. election – and provide a report before he leaves office on January 20, 2017.[69][70][71] Lisa Monaco, U.S. Homeland Security Advisor and chief counterterrorism advisor to the president, announced the study, and said the intrusion of a foreign nation into a U.S. national election was an unprecedented event that would necessitate further investigation by subsequent administrations in the executive branch.[69] The intelligence analysis will take into account data from the last three presidential elections in the U.S.[70] Evidence showed malicious cyberwarfare during the 2008 and 2016 U.S. elections.[70]

Media commentary

Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, writing in the Washington Post, called the known facts about Russian interference in the election was "disturbing" and called for a full investigation to determine the facts that are still uncertain.[68] McFaul said that the investigation announced by President Obama was "a good start ... but it is not enough," writing: "First, a serious investigation will take longer than one month; second, the authors of such a report must be bipartisan; third, the scope of such an inquiry must include other forms of interference beyond hacking; and fourth, the actions (and maybe non-actions) of the executive branch during the 2016 campaign must be part of the study."[68] McFaula called for a "bipartisan investigation, staffed in part by academics and experts, so that we know better what happened and therefore can make important policy changes before the 2020 elections."[68]

Glenn Greenwald, writing for The Intercept, criticized the The Washington Post and The New York Times reports on Russian involvement in the presidential election. Greenwald noted that these reports relied on anonymous sources within the CIA and did not provide any evidence or proof. In addition, Greenwald speculated that "an important part of this story, quite clearly, is inter-agency feuding between ... the CIA and the FBI," contrasting the support Clinton received from high-ranking CIA officers with the "key factions in the FBI [who] were furious that Hillary Clinton was not criminally charged for her handling of classified information."[72]

Historian Robert S. McElvaine wrote that there should be "supreme outrage" over the CIA's conclusion of Russian interference and that "the stealing of an election through actions by a hostile foreign power is both the greatest scandal in American history and precisely the sort of evil that the Framers of the United States Constitution sought to block through the Electoral College."[73] McElvaine referred to Federalist No. 68 in calling upon the Electoral College to adopt a "compromise Government of National Unity."[73]

See also

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Further reading

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