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===Colorado===
===Colorado===
{{main|United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado, 2010}}
{{main|United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado, 2010}}
* '''{{ushr|Colorado|2|}}''': Democratic incumbent [[Jared Polis]] is being challenged by the Unity Party's Bill Hammons.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2009/jun/22/bill-hammons-unity-party-congress-jared-polis/ | title = Unity Party's Hammons to challenge Polis for 2nd CD seat in 2010 | date = 2009-6-22}}</ref>
* '''{{ushr|Colorado|3|}}''': Democratic incumbent [[John Salazar]] is facing a challenge from Republican District Attorney Martin Beeson, whose judicial district includes [[Rio Blanco County, Colorado|Rio Blanco]], [[Garfield County, CO|Garfield]] and [[Pitkin County, CO|Pitkin]] counties.<ref>{{cite web|last=Giroux |first=Greg |url=http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/04/colorado-prosecutor-beeson-pre.html |title=CQ Politics &#124; Eye on 2010 - Colorado Prosecutor Beeson Preps GOP Bid Against Rep. Salazar |publisher=Blogs.cqpolitics.com |date=2009-04-24 |accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> The district includes the [[Colorado Western Slope]] as well as [[Pueblo, CO|Pueblo]]. McCain won 50% here in 2008.<ref>{{cite web|author=Member Profile |url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000020446 |title=Profile for Rep. John Salazar, Colorado Democrat, Western Slope; Pueblo |publisher=CQ Politics |date=1953-07-21 |accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> ([[Cook Partisan Voting Index]] R+5).<ref name=cpvi/>
* '''{{ushr|Colorado|3|}}''': Democratic incumbent [[John Salazar]] is facing a challenge from Republican District Attorney Martin Beeson, whose judicial district includes [[Rio Blanco County, Colorado|Rio Blanco]], [[Garfield County, CO|Garfield]] and [[Pitkin County, CO|Pitkin]] counties.<ref>{{cite web|last=Giroux |first=Greg |url=http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/04/colorado-prosecutor-beeson-pre.html |title=CQ Politics &#124; Eye on 2010 - Colorado Prosecutor Beeson Preps GOP Bid Against Rep. Salazar |publisher=Blogs.cqpolitics.com |date=2009-04-24 |accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> The district includes the [[Colorado Western Slope]] as well as [[Pueblo, CO|Pueblo]]. McCain won 50% here in 2008.<ref>{{cite web|author=Member Profile |url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000020446 |title=Profile for Rep. John Salazar, Colorado Democrat, Western Slope; Pueblo |publisher=CQ Politics |date=1953-07-21 |accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> ([[Cook Partisan Voting Index]] R+5).<ref name=cpvi/>



Revision as of 00:37, 13 August 2009

United States House of Representatives elections, 2010

← 2008 November 2, 2010

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 5 (of the 6) non-voting members
 
Leader Nancy Pelosi John Boehner
Party Democratic Republican
Leader's seat California-8th Ohio-8th
Last election 257 seats, 59.1% 178 seats, 40.9%

The current congressional districts for the 112th Congress

Incumbent Speaker

Nancy Pelosi
Democratic



For complete list of the races in all districts, but without commentary, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2010 - complete list.

The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 2, 2010, halfway through President Barack Obama's first term in office. Elections will be held for all 435 seats, representing the 50 U.S. states. Elections also will be held for the delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five U.S. territories. The only seat in the United States House of Representatives not up for election is that of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term and will next face election in 2012.

The number of House seats may change pending the passage of the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act of 2009 (H.R. 157 and S. 160) in the House. On February 26, 2009, the United States Senate passed S. 160 by a vote of 61-37, although an attached amendment removing most of the District's gun laws has kept the bill from proceeding further.[1]

The winners of this election cycle will serve in the 112th Congress.

Background

Following the 2006 elections, Democrats took control of the House as well as the Senate. In the 2008 elections, which coincided with Democrat Barack Obama's victory over Republican John McCain for the presidency, Democrats increased their majorities in both chambers. Of the 435 Congressional districts, 242 were carried by Obama, while 193 voted for McCain. Of the districts Obama won, 34 elected a Republican to the House, while 49 of the districts McCain won elected a Democrat.[2]

Republicans are hoping to win back many of the swing districts they lost in the two previous elections.[3] Both parties have been preparing to defend seats that they risk losing. Democrats, who occupy more of the swing districts, are operating more on the defense than are Republicans. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has highlighted 40 Democratic incumbents at risk, part of their "Frontline Program."[4] The National Republican Congressional Committee has in turn highlighted 10 Republican incumbents at risk, part of their "Patriot Program."[5] They later added 15 additional names to the list, bringing the total to 25.[6]

Recently, both parties have been tied or had small leads in polls of voters on generic congressional ballots.[7]

This will be the last congressional election using congressional districts that were drawn based on the 2000 census.

Retiring Incumbents

At this point in time, 17 U.S. Representatives are voluntarily retiring from the House at the end of their current term.

Democratic Incumbents

Republican Incumbents

Predictions

Most non-partisan pundits predict that the Republicans will gain seats in the 2010 elections, but expressed doubt that the Republicans could retake control of the House in 2010. In April 2009, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog, the Rothenberg Political Report, that "... the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not 'close to zero.' Not 'slight' or 'small.' Zero." In the same column, Rothenberg wrote "It’s not yet clear which party will gain seats in next year’s midterms or how large the swing will be. The GOP could well gain back some ground, given how far its House numbers have fallen."[25] In a May 2009 column for his Crystal Ball newsletter, Larry Sabato wrote "History instead suggests that the overall odds favor Republican gains in the House in 2010, but relatively modest gains. After all, Democrats now hold 257 House seats, 39 seats more than the minimum needed to control the House. Only Truman in 1946 and Clinton in 1994 yielded more than 39 seats to the opposition party in their first midterm election."[26] In an April 2009 column, Charlie Cook wrote "Democrats' success in the midterm elections hinges on the economy's bottoming out and starting to improve. Economic conditions could instead get significantly worse if a major financial institution went belly-up. "[27] In a May 2009 column, Cook wrote "The number of truly competitive House races is likely to be very small next year," saying that this was good for the Democrats. [28]

Race ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included are currently considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)

District Incumbent Cook[29] Rothenberg[30] CQ Politics[31]
AL-2 Bright (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D
AL-3 Rogers (R) Likely R Limited Risk Leans R
AL-5 Griffith (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D
AK-AL Young (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R
AZ-1 Kirkpatrick (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
AZ-3 Shadegg (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
AZ-5 Mitchell (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D
AZ-8 Giffords (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
AR-1 Berry (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D
CA-3 Lungren (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R
CA-4 McClintock (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
CA-11 McNerney (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
CA-26 Dreier (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
CA-44 Calvert (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R
CA-45 Bono Mack (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored
CA-46 Rohrabacher (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R
CA-48 Campbell (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
CA-50 Bilbray (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
CO-3 Salazar (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D
CO-4 Markey (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D
CT-4 Himes (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D
DE-AL Castle (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored
FL-8 Grayson (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D
FL-10 Young (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored
FL-12 (Putnam) (R) Likely R Limited Risk Leans R
FL-13 Buchanan (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
FL-16 Rooney (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R
FL-22 Klein (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D
FL-24 Kosmas (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D
FL-25 Diaz-Balart (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
GA-8 Marshall (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D
GA-12 Barrow (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D
HI-1 (Abercrombie) (D) Likely D D Favored Safe D
ID-1 Minnick (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Tossup
IL-6 Roskam (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R
IL-10 (Kirk) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D
IL-11 Halvorson (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
IL-13 Biggert (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
IL-14 Foster (D) Leans D D Favored D Favored
IN-2 Donnelly (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D
IN-3 Souder (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R
IN-9 Hill (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
IA-2 Loebsack (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D
IA-3 Boswell (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
IA-4 Latham (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
LA-2 Cao (R) Tossup D Favored D Favored
LA-3 Melancon (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
LA-4 Fleming (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
LA-6 Cassidy (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
MD-1 Kratovil (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Tossup
MI-7 Schauer (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D
MI-9 Peters (D) Leans D Limited Risk Leans D
MI-11 McCotter (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R
MN-3 Paulsen (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R
MN-6 Bachmann (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R
MS-1 Childers (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D
MO-9 Luetkemeyer (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
NE-2 Terry (R) Likely R Limited Risk Leans R
NV-2 Heller (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
NV-3 Titus (D) Leans D Limited Risk Leans D
NH-1 Shea-Porter (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D
NH-2 (Hodes) (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D D Favored
NJ-3 Adler (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D
NJ-7 Lance (R) Likely R Limited Risk Leans R
NM-1 Heinrich (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
NM-2 Teague (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D
NY-13 McMahon (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
NY-19 Hall (D) Likely D D Favored Leans D
NY-20 Murphy (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D
NY-23 (Open) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup
NY-24 Arcuri (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D
NY-25 Maffei (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
NY-26 Lee (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
NY-29 Massa (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D
NC-8 Kissell (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D
OH-1 Driehaus (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D
OH-2 Schmidt (R) Likely R Limited Risk Leans R
OH-12 Tiberi (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R
OH-15 Kilroy (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D
OH-16 Boccieri (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
OH-18 Space (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
OR-4 DeFazio (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D
OR-5 Schrader (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D
PA-3 Dahlkemper (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D
PA-4 Altmire (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D
PA-6 (Gerlach) (R) Tossup R Favored Leans D
PA-7 (Sestak) (D) Safe D Likely D D Favored
PA-10 Carney (D) Likely D Leans D D Favored
PA-11 Kanjorski (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
PA-12 Murtha (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
PA-15 Dent (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
PA-18 Murphy (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R
SC-1 Brown (R) Likely R Limited Risk Leans R
TN-3 (Wamp) (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R
TX-10 McCaul (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored
TX-17 Edwards (D) Leans D D Favored D Favored
TX-23 Rodriguez (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
VA-2 Nye (D) Leans D D Favored D Favored
VA-5 Perriello (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D
VA-10 Wolf (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R
VA-11 Connolly (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored
WA-8 Reichert (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R
WI-8 Kagen (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D

Races by state

Template:Congress TOC states 1

See also: Swing District

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

District of Columbia

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

  • Missouri's 4th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Ike Skelton who will be 78 in 2010, has long been a popular figure in this west-central Missouri district, winning reelection by overwhelming margins. In 2009, Skelton was criticized for his votes in support of the economic stimulous plan and the cap and trade climate change bill. Republican former state Representative Vicky Hartzler, who has close ties to religious conservatives, has filed papers to run. [263] This district includes the Kansas City suburbs and Jefferson City in the west central part of the state. McCain won 61% here in 2008.[264] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+14).[37]

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

  • Ohio's 16th congressional district: In 2008, Democratic state Senator John Boccieri won this historically Republican district by a 55% to 45% margin, helped by avoidable gaffes by his Republican opponent. Some Republicans wish that Ashland County Commissioner Matthew Miller had been the nominee that year, but he was defeated in the primary. Miller has been approached about running again, and he hasn't ruled another campaign.[329]

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

See also

United States Senate elections, 2010
United States House of Representatives

References

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  219. ^ Will Mike Michaud Run For Governor?
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