2010 United States House of Representatives elections: Difference between revisions
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===Colorado=== |
===Colorado=== |
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{{main|United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado, 2010}} |
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* '''{{ushr|Colorado|2|}}''': Democratic incumbent [[Jared Polis]] is being challenged by the Unity Party's Bill Hammons.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2009/jun/22/bill-hammons-unity-party-congress-jared-polis/ | title = Unity Party's Hammons to challenge Polis for 2nd CD seat in 2010 | date = 2009-6-22}}</ref> |
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* '''{{ushr|Colorado|3|}}''': Democratic incumbent [[John Salazar]] is facing a challenge from Republican District Attorney Martin Beeson, whose judicial district includes [[Rio Blanco County, Colorado|Rio Blanco]], [[Garfield County, CO|Garfield]] and [[Pitkin County, CO|Pitkin]] counties.<ref>{{cite web|last=Giroux |first=Greg |url=http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/04/colorado-prosecutor-beeson-pre.html |title=CQ Politics | Eye on 2010 - Colorado Prosecutor Beeson Preps GOP Bid Against Rep. Salazar |publisher=Blogs.cqpolitics.com |date=2009-04-24 |accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> The district includes the [[Colorado Western Slope]] as well as [[Pueblo, CO|Pueblo]]. McCain won 50% here in 2008.<ref>{{cite web|author=Member Profile |url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000020446 |title=Profile for Rep. John Salazar, Colorado Democrat, Western Slope; Pueblo |publisher=CQ Politics |date=1953-07-21 |accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> ([[Cook Partisan Voting Index]] R+5).<ref name=cpvi/> |
* '''{{ushr|Colorado|3|}}''': Democratic incumbent [[John Salazar]] is facing a challenge from Republican District Attorney Martin Beeson, whose judicial district includes [[Rio Blanco County, Colorado|Rio Blanco]], [[Garfield County, CO|Garfield]] and [[Pitkin County, CO|Pitkin]] counties.<ref>{{cite web|last=Giroux |first=Greg |url=http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/04/colorado-prosecutor-beeson-pre.html |title=CQ Politics | Eye on 2010 - Colorado Prosecutor Beeson Preps GOP Bid Against Rep. Salazar |publisher=Blogs.cqpolitics.com |date=2009-04-24 |accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> The district includes the [[Colorado Western Slope]] as well as [[Pueblo, CO|Pueblo]]. McCain won 50% here in 2008.<ref>{{cite web|author=Member Profile |url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000020446 |title=Profile for Rep. John Salazar, Colorado Democrat, Western Slope; Pueblo |publisher=CQ Politics |date=1953-07-21 |accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> ([[Cook Partisan Voting Index]] R+5).<ref name=cpvi/> |
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Revision as of 00:37, 13 August 2009
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All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 5 (of the 6) non-voting members | ||||||||||||||||
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The current congressional districts for the 112th Congress | ||||||||||||||||
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For complete list of the races in all districts, but without commentary, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2010 - complete list.
The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 2, 2010, halfway through President Barack Obama's first term in office. Elections will be held for all 435 seats, representing the 50 U.S. states. Elections also will be held for the delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five U.S. territories. The only seat in the United States House of Representatives not up for election is that of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term and will next face election in 2012.
The number of House seats may change pending the passage of the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act of 2009 (H.R. 157 and S. 160) in the House. On February 26, 2009, the United States Senate passed S. 160 by a vote of 61-37, although an attached amendment removing most of the District's gun laws has kept the bill from proceeding further.[1]
The winners of this election cycle will serve in the 112th Congress.
Background
Following the 2006 elections, Democrats took control of the House as well as the Senate. In the 2008 elections, which coincided with Democrat Barack Obama's victory over Republican John McCain for the presidency, Democrats increased their majorities in both chambers. Of the 435 Congressional districts, 242 were carried by Obama, while 193 voted for McCain. Of the districts Obama won, 34 elected a Republican to the House, while 49 of the districts McCain won elected a Democrat.[2]
Republicans are hoping to win back many of the swing districts they lost in the two previous elections.[3] Both parties have been preparing to defend seats that they risk losing. Democrats, who occupy more of the swing districts, are operating more on the defense than are Republicans. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has highlighted 40 Democratic incumbents at risk, part of their "Frontline Program."[4] The National Republican Congressional Committee has in turn highlighted 10 Republican incumbents at risk, part of their "Patriot Program."[5] They later added 15 additional names to the list, bringing the total to 25.[6]
Recently, both parties have been tied or had small leads in polls of voters on generic congressional ballots.[7]
This will be the last congressional election using congressional districts that were drawn based on the 2000 census.
Retiring Incumbents
At this point in time, 17 U.S. Representatives are voluntarily retiring from the House at the end of their current term.
Democratic Incumbents
- Alabama's 7th congressional district: Artur Davis: To run for governor of Alabama.[8]
- Florida's 17th congressional district: Kendrick Meek: To run for the U.S. Senate.[9]
- Hawaii's 1st congressional district: Neil Abercrombie: To run for governor of Hawaii.[10]
- Illinois's 7th congressional district: Danny K. Davis: To run for Cook County Board President.[11]
- New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district: Paul Hodes: To run for the U.S. Senate.[12]
- Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district: Joe Sestak: To run for the U.S. Senate.[13]
Republican Incumbents
- Florida's 12th congressional district: Adam Putnam: To run for Florida commissioner of agriculture.[14]
- Georgia's 9th congressional district: Nathan Deal: To run for run for governor of Georgia.[15]
- Illinois's 10th congressional district: Mark Kirk: To run for US Senate.[16]
- Kansas's 1st congressional district: Jerry Moran: To run for the U.S. Senate.[17]
- Kansas's 4th congressional district: Todd Tiahrt: To run for the U.S. Senate.[18]
- Michigan's 2nd congressional district: Pete Hoekstra: To run for governor of Michigan.[19]
- Missouri's 7th congressional district: Roy Blunt: To run for the U.S. Senate.[20]
- Oklahoma's 5th congressional district: Mary Fallin: To run for governor of Oklahoma.[21]
- Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district: Jim Gerlach: To run for governor of Pennsylvania.[22]
- South Carolina's 3rd congressional district: Gresham Barrett: To run for governor of South Carolina.[23]
- Tennessee's 3rd congressional district: Zach Wamp: To run for governor of Tennessee.[24]
Predictions
Most non-partisan pundits predict that the Republicans will gain seats in the 2010 elections, but expressed doubt that the Republicans could retake control of the House in 2010. In April 2009, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog, the Rothenberg Political Report, that "... the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not 'close to zero.' Not 'slight' or 'small.' Zero." In the same column, Rothenberg wrote "It’s not yet clear which party will gain seats in next year’s midterms or how large the swing will be. The GOP could well gain back some ground, given how far its House numbers have fallen."[25] In a May 2009 column for his Crystal Ball newsletter, Larry Sabato wrote "History instead suggests that the overall odds favor Republican gains in the House in 2010, but relatively modest gains. After all, Democrats now hold 257 House seats, 39 seats more than the minimum needed to control the House. Only Truman in 1946 and Clinton in 1994 yielded more than 39 seats to the opposition party in their first midterm election."[26] In an April 2009 column, Charlie Cook wrote "Democrats' success in the midterm elections hinges on the economy's bottoming out and starting to improve. Economic conditions could instead get significantly worse if a major financial institution went belly-up. "[27] In a May 2009 column, Cook wrote "The number of truly competitive House races is likely to be very small next year," saying that this was good for the Democrats. [28]
Race ratings
The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included are currently considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)
District | Incumbent | Cook[29] | Rothenberg[30] | CQ Politics[31] |
---|---|---|---|---|
AL-2 | Bright (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D |
AL-3 | Rogers (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Leans R |
AL-5 | Griffith (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
AK-AL | Young (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R |
AZ-1 | Kirkpatrick (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
AZ-3 | Shadegg (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
AZ-5 | Mitchell (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
AZ-8 | Giffords (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
AR-1 | Berry (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
CA-3 | Lungren (R) | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R |
CA-4 | McClintock (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
CA-11 | McNerney (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
CA-26 | Dreier (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
CA-44 | Calvert (R) | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R |
CA-45 | Bono Mack (R) | Likely R | R Favored | R Favored |
CA-46 | Rohrabacher (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
CA-48 | Campbell (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
CA-50 | Bilbray (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
CO-3 | Salazar (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
CO-4 | Markey (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
CT-4 | Himes (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
DE-AL | Castle (R) | Likely R | R Favored | R Favored |
FL-8 | Grayson (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
FL-10 | Young (R) | Likely R | R Favored | R Favored |
FL-12 | (Putnam) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Leans R |
FL-13 | Buchanan (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
FL-16 | Rooney (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
FL-22 | Klein (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
FL-24 | Kosmas (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
FL-25 | Diaz-Balart (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
GA-8 | Marshall (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D |
GA-12 | Barrow (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
HI-1 | (Abercrombie) (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Safe D |
ID-1 | Minnick (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Tossup |
IL-6 | Roskam (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
IL-10 | (Kirk) (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D |
IL-11 | Halvorson (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
IL-13 | Biggert (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
IL-14 | Foster (D) | Leans D | D Favored | D Favored |
IN-2 | Donnelly (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
IN-3 | Souder (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
IN-9 | Hill (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
IA-2 | Loebsack (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
IA-3 | Boswell (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
IA-4 | Latham (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
LA-2 | Cao (R) | Tossup | D Favored | D Favored |
LA-3 | Melancon (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
LA-4 | Fleming (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
LA-6 | Cassidy (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
MD-1 | Kratovil (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Tossup |
MI-7 | Schauer (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D |
MI-9 | Peters (D) | Leans D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
MI-11 | McCotter (R) | Leans R | R Favored | Leans R |
MN-3 | Paulsen (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R |
MN-6 | Bachmann (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R |
MS-1 | Childers (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D |
MO-9 | Luetkemeyer (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
NE-2 | Terry (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Leans R |
NV-2 | Heller (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
NV-3 | Titus (D) | Leans D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
NH-1 | Shea-Porter (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D |
NH-2 | (Hodes) (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | D Favored |
NJ-3 | Adler (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
NJ-7 | Lance (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Leans R |
NM-1 | Heinrich (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
NM-2 | Teague (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D |
NY-13 | McMahon (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
NY-19 | Hall (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Leans D |
NY-20 | Murphy (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D |
NY-23 | (Open) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup |
NY-24 | Arcuri (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D |
NY-25 | Maffei (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
NY-26 | Lee (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
NY-29 | Massa (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D |
NC-8 | Kissell (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
OH-1 | Driehaus (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D |
OH-2 | Schmidt (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Leans R |
OH-12 | Tiberi (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
OH-15 | Kilroy (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D |
OH-16 | Boccieri (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
OH-18 | Space (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
OR-4 | DeFazio (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
OR-5 | Schrader (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
PA-3 | Dahlkemper (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
PA-4 | Altmire (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Safe D |
PA-6 | (Gerlach) (R) | Tossup | R Favored | Leans D |
PA-7 | (Sestak) (D) | Safe D | Likely D | D Favored |
PA-10 | Carney (D) | Likely D | Leans D | D Favored |
PA-11 | Kanjorski (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
PA-12 | Murtha (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
PA-15 | Dent (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
PA-18 | Murphy (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
SC-1 | Brown (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Leans R |
TN-3 | (Wamp) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
TX-10 | McCaul (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored |
TX-17 | Edwards (D) | Leans D | D Favored | D Favored |
TX-23 | Rodriguez (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
VA-2 | Nye (D) | Leans D | D Favored | D Favored |
VA-5 | Perriello (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
VA-10 | Wolf (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R |
VA-11 | Connolly (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored |
WA-8 | Reichert (R) | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R |
WI-8 | Kagen (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D |
Races by state
Template:Congress TOC states 1
See also: Swing District
Alabama
- Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Freshman Democrat Bobby Bright, the former Mayor of Montgomery, defeated Republican state Representative Jay Love by fewer than 1,800 votes in 2008, helped by a bitter Republican primary.[32] Bright is running for reelection.[33] Republican Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby has announced she will challenge him.[34] Other potential Republican candidates include maxillofacial surgeon Craig Schmidtke, who Love defeated in the Republican primary, businesswoman Patricia Barnes, state Representatives Greg Wren, Steve Clouse and David Grimes, and former State Treasurer George Wallace Jr., who ran for but narrowly lost the seat in 1992 as a Democrat.[35] This southeastern Alabama district includes most of the city of Montgomery, as well as Troy and Dothan. John McCain won 63.42% of the vote here in 2008.[36] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+16).[37]
- Alabama's 3rd congressional district: Republican incumbent Mike D. Rogers defeated Democratic lawyer Josh Segall 53.4% to 46.6% in 2008, Rogers' closest victory since he was first elected.[38] Segall has announced that he will run again.[39] Calhoun County Commissioner Robert Downing is another possible Democratic candidate.[40] This eastern Alabama district includes part of Montgomery, as well as Phenix City, Auburn, Sylacauga, Talladega, Anniston, and Piedmont. McCain won 56% here in 2008.[38] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+9).[37]
- Alabama's 5th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Parker Griffith, who is being targeted for defeat by state and national Republicans, is facing a challenge from Navy veteran Lester Phillip, and Madison County Commissioner Morris Brooks.[41] This northern Alabama district includes Huntsville, Scottsoro, Decatur, and Florence.[42] McCain won 61% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+12).[37]
- Alabama's 7th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Artur Davis is running for Governor of Alabama.[8] Six Democrats have announced their candidacies: attorney Terri Sewell, state Representatives Earl Hilliard, Jr., the son of the district's former congressman, Earl Hilliard, Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot, former Selma Mayor James Perkins, attorney Martha Bozeman, and Tuscaloosa small business owner Eddison Walters.[43] Other Democrats considering a run include state Senators Bobby Singleton and Linda Coleman,[44] and Hank Sanders,[45] and state Representative Merika Coleman.[46] The district, which includes the west central part of the state and includes Selma and Demopolis, as well as parts of the cities of Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, gave Barack Obama 71% of the vote in 2008.[47] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+18).[37]
Alaska
- Alaska's at-large congressional district: Republican incumbent Don Young defeated Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell by 304 votes in the 2008 Republican primary and former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz by seven points in the general election. Young is running for reelection,[48] but any opposing candidates may be aided by the fact that because of an ongoing federal investigation, Young has lost his status as ranking member on the House Natural Resources Committee.[49] The district includes the entire state of Alaska: McCain won 59% here in 2008.[50] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[37]
Arizona
- Arizona's 1st congressional district: Freshman Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick may face a challenge from state Representative Bill Konopnicki.[51] The district includes northern and eastern Arizona including Flagstaff, Prescott, Payson, and some of the Navajo reservation.[52] McCain won 54% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
- Arizona's 5th congressional district: In 2008, Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell defeated his Republican opponent, former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, 53% to 44%. Schweikert has filed paperwork in order to run again, and will face businessman Jim Ward in the primary.[53] Other potential Republican candidates include former state Representative Susan Bitter Smith who was defeated in the 2008 primary by Schweikert, as well as Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman.[54] The district, which includes Scottsdale, Tempe, Fountain Hills, Tortilla Flat, and small parts of Phoenix and Mesa, gave McCain 52% of the vote in 2008.[55] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[37]
- Arizona's 8th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Gabrielle Giffords is facing a challenge from Republicans Jesse Kelly, a construction company executive and former Marine, and veteran Andy Goss.[56] This southeastern Arizona district includes Cochise County and part of Tucson and its northern suburbs including Oro Valley, Cortaro, and Marana.[57] McCain won 52% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+4).[37]
Arkansas
- Arkansas's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Vic Snyder has been the subject of retirement speculation [58] after he became a father to triplets, although Snyder has stated he will run again.[59] However, retirement speculation could be further fueled by the fact Snyder raised no money in the first or second quarter of 2009.[60] While Republican health insurance executive David Meeks has announced his candidacy,[60] strategists are trying to recruit former economic policy advisor to George W. Bush, French Hill, to enter the race.[60] This district, which consists of the center of state, including Little Rock, Jacksonville, Conway, and Morrilton, gave McCain 54% here in 2008.[61] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5). [37]
California
- California's 3rd congressional district: Republican incumbent Dan Lungren defeated his Democratic challenger 49% to 44%. Democrats running for this seat are physician Amerish Bera, former Elk Grove Mayor Gary Davis, and Sacramento Municipal Utility District Director Bill Slaton [62] Other potential Democratic candidates include Calaveras County Supervisor Steve Wilensky, Rancho Cordova City Councilman Ken Cooley, state Assemblywomen Allyson Huber, and former state Treasurer and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides.[63] The district includes the Sacramento County suburbs of Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Fair Oaks, and Elk Grove. In 2008, Obama narrowly won this district with 49.4% compared to 48.8% for McCain.[64] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
- California's 4th congressional district: Freshman Republican Tom McClintock defeated Democratic retired military officer Charlie Brown 50.2% to 49.8%.[65] Brown, who was also defeated in 2006 46% to 49% against then-Republican incumbent John Doolittle,[66] is considering running again.[67] The district consists of northeastern California, including the cities of Roseville, Rocklin, and Auburn. McCain won 54% here in 2008.[65] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+10).[37]
- California's 11th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney will face a challenge from winegrape grower Brad Goehring.[68] He may face a challenge from former state Assemblyman Guy Houston.[69] The district includes the inland East Bay suburbs of Danville, San Ramon, and Pleasanton, and the northern San Joaquin Valley. Obama won 54% here in 2008.[70] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[37]
- California's 26th congressional district: Republican incumbent David Dreier defeated Democratic businessman Russ Warner with 52% of the vote in 2008 and at the presidential level gave Obama 51%,[37] a turnaround of eight percentage points from the 2004 election. Warner is running again.[71] This district includes Arcadia, Monrovia, Covina, Glendora, Pomona, and Montclair, . (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[37]
- California's 36th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Jane Harman has become embroiled in a controversy where she allegedly agreed to help two former American Israel Public Affairs Committee officials accused of espionage. Harman is facing a primary challenge from teacher and party activist Marcy Winograd, who challenged her in 2006 and won 38% of the vote.[72] Blogger John Amato is also considering running in the Democratic primary.[73] This coastal Los Angeles County district includes Manhattan Beach, Torrance, Redondo Beach, and parts of the city of Los Angeles, including San Pedro and Venice.[74] Obama won 64% here in 2008.[70] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+12).[37]
- California's 44th congressional district: Republican incumbent Ken Calvert defeated Democratic challenger Bill Hedrick by a slim 51% to 49% margin in 2008, despite Hedrick's being heavily outspent. Hedrick has announced he will seek a rematch; Calvert has not yet announced his reelection intentions,[75] but will face a primary challenge from real estate broker Chris Riggs.[63] This district, which includes Riverside, Norco, and Corona, was close in 2008: Obama won 49.5% of the vote to McCain's 48.6%.[76] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
- California's 45th congressional district: Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack is facing a challenge from Democratic Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet.[77] Former state Assemblywoman and 2008 Democratic nominee Julie Bornstein may run again:[78] Bono Mack defeated Bornstein 58.3% to 41.7%. Considered vulnerable by national Republicans, Bono Mack has been enlisted in a program to receive financial support.[79] The district includes the cities of Moreno Valley, Hemet, Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Rancho Mirage, and Indio. Obama won 52% here in 2008.[80] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[37]
- California's 47th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez will run for reelection.[81] Republican Assemblyman Van Tran and former marine pilot Quang Pham will run for the right to compete against Sanchez.[82] The district includes the cities of Santa Ana, Garden Grove, and most of Anaheim. Obama won 60% here in 2008.[83] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+4).[37]
- California's 48th congressional district: Republican incumbent John B. T. Campbell III is facing a challenge from former Irvine Mayor and current city council member Beth Krom, who has announced she will run as a Democrat.[84] The district is located in southern Orange County and includes the cities of Tustin, Irvine, Laguna Niguel, and Newport Beach. Obama defeated McCain 49.3% to 48.6% here in 2008.[85] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
- California's 50th congressional district: Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray is facing a challenge from two Democrats: attorney Tracy Emblem and former Cardiff School Board Trustee Francine Busby;[86] Bilbray defeated Busby 53% to 43.5% in 2006.[87] Bilbray is expected to be targeted for defeat by national Democrats.[88] Former prosecutor and 2008 Democratic nominee Nick Leibham may run again;[89] Bilbray defeated Leibham 50.2% to 45.2%. The district includes northern San Diego, Solana Beach, Encinitas, Escondido, San Marcos, and Carlsbad. Obama won 51% here in 2008.[87] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[37]
Colorado
- Colorado's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Jared Polis is being challenged by the Unity Party's Bill Hammons.[90]
- Colorado's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent John Salazar is facing a challenge from Republican District Attorney Martin Beeson, whose judicial district includes Rio Blanco, Garfield and Pitkin counties.[91] The district includes the Colorado Western Slope as well as Pueblo. McCain won 50% here in 2008.[92] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[37]
- Colorado's 4th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Betsy Markey is likely to face a spirited Republican challenge in 2010.[93] On the Republican side, University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero and State Representative Cory Gardner are running.[94] Fort Collins City Councilman Diggs Brown,[95] state Senator Greg Brophy, former state Senate Majority Leader Mark Hillman,[96] Weld County Commissioner Bill Jerke,[97] and former state Senator and current Larimer County Commissioner Steve Johnson [98] are potential Republican candidates. The district includes the cities of Fort Collins, Loveland, Greeley, Fort Morgan, and Lamar. McCain won 50% of the vote here in 2008.[99] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
- Colorado's 6th congressional district: First term Republican incumbent Mike Coffman will face a challenge from Attorney David Canter who started his bid for the seat the day after the 2008 elections.[100] This district includes the cities of Littleton, Centennial, Castle Rock, and parts of Aurora in central Colorado. McCain won 52% here in 2008.[101] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+8).[37]
Connecticut
- Connecticut's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Joe Courtney is facing a challenge from Republican Matthew Daly, a former board of finance member from Hebron, as well as corporate consultant Daria Novak.[102] Other potential Republican candidates are former state Representative Andrew Norton and 2008 nominee Sean Sullivan (who Courtney defeated 66%-32%).[103] This eastern Connecticut district includes Norwich, New London, and Storrs. Obama won 58% here in 2008.[104] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+6).[37]
- Connecticut's 4th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Jim Himes will face a challenge from either Republican activist Will Gregory, state Senator Dan Debicella,[105] or financial industry veteran Rob Merkle.[106] This southwestern Connecticut seat includes Bridgeport, Westport, Norwalk, and Stamford. Obama won 60% here in 2008.[107] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+5).[37]
- Connecticut's 5th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Chris Murphy is facing a challenge from Republican Justin Bernier, the former executive director of the state’s Office of Military Affairs.[108] The district consists of northwestern Connecticut and includes the cities of New Britain, Danbury, and most of Waterbury. Obama won 56% here in 2008.[109] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+2).[37]
Delaware
- Delaware's at-large congressional district: Republican incumbent Mike Castle is considering running for the United States Senate, running for reelection to his current House seat, or retiring.[110] Democrat and former Lieutenant Governor John C. Carney, Jr. has announced his candidacy for this seat.[111] Carney will be challenged in the Democratic primary by Scott Spencer, a transportation consultant.[112] The district, which consists of the entire state of Delaware, gave Obama 62% of the vote in 2008.[113] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+7).[37]
District of Columbia
Florida
- Florida's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Allen Boyd will face a primary challenge from state Senate Democratic Leader Al Lawson and also from Florida Whig Party candidate Paul C. McKain.[114] The district, which includes most of Tallahassee as well as Panama City, gave McCain 54% of the vote in 2008.[115] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
- Florida's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Corrine Brown has formed an exploratory committee for a potential campaign for the United States Senate.[116] This geographically diverse northern Florida district includes Pine Hill, Palatka, Sanford, and Orange Park, as well as parts of Jacksonville, Orlando, and Gainesville.[117] Obama won 73% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+18).[37]
- Florida's 8th congressional district: Democrat Alan Grayson unseated incumbent Ric Keller in 2008 52% to 48%. Known for his tough questioning of people involved in the current financial crisis, Grayson has embarrassed himself in a ponzi scheme, where he reportedly lost millions of dollars.[118] Republican radio talk-show host Todd Long, who received 47% of the vote against Keller in the 2008 primary, is running again.[119] Florida State House speaker and Republican Larry Cretul is leaning toward running.[120] Other Republicans considering a run are former state Senator Dan Webster, state Representative Steve Precourt, state Senate Majority Whip Andy Gardiner, and Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, though Crotty is facing a legal challenge.[121] This central Florida district includes most of Orlando as well as the suburbs of Conway and Ocoee. Obama won 52% of vote here in 2008.[122] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[37]
- Florida's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Bill Young is facing a challenge from Democratic state Senator Charlie Justice.[123] Since Young raised a meager $1,355 in the first quarter of 2009 [124] there is some speculation that he will retire.[125] While Young has not decided whether to run again, he has stated he is not planning to retire.[126] This district includes most of most of Pinellas County, including St. Petersburg, Pinellas Park, Seminole, and Largo. Obama won 52% here in 2008.[127] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[37]
- Florida's 12th congressional district: Republican incumbent Adam Putnam is vacating this seat in order to run for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture.[14] Republican former state Representative Dennis Ross is running for this seat,[128] and will be joined in the primary by Polk County Commissioner Randy Wilkinson [129] and banker Thomas Snyder.[130] Other potential Republican candidates include Polk County State's Attorney Jerry Hill.[131] On the Democratic side, Doug Tudor, a retired United States Navy chief,[132] and Polk County Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards are running.[133], and perhaps former state Senator Rick Dantzler, as well.[132] This district includes most of Polk County and southeastern Hillsborough County. John McCain won 50% of the vote here in 2008.[134] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
- Florida's 13th congressional district: Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan has announced his reelection to his house seat. Democrats have heavily targeted this seat in 2006 and 2008, and may do so again.[135] Democratic Reverend James Golden has announced his candidacy.[136] This district includes Sarasota County and most of Manatee County: McCain won 52% of the vote here in 2008.[137] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
- Florida's 16th congressional district: Freshman Tom Rooney will face a challenge from St. Lucie County Commissioner Christopher Craft.[138] This south central Florida district includes Jupiter, Port St. Lucie, and Fort Pierce, as well as parts of Port Charlotte and Wellington.[139] McCain won 52% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[37]
- Florida's 17th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Kendrick Meek is running for the United States Senate.[9] The announced Democratic candidates are Miami-Dade Public School Teacher Leroy Adam,[140] state Representative Phillip Brutus, state Senator Frederica Wilson, Miami Gardens city Councilman Andre Williams, Miami Gardens Mayor Shirley Gibson state Representative Yolly Roberson, community activist Marleine Bastien,[141] and attorney Roderick Vereen.[142] Potential Democratic candidates include state Representitive James Bush and Opa-Locka Mayor Joseph Kelley.[141] This district, which includes the north side of Miami as well as Opa-Locka, North Miami, Carol City, Miramar and the western portion of Hollywood, gave Barack Obama 87% of the vote in 2008.[143] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+34).[37]
- Florida's 18th congressional district: In 2008, Republican incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was reelected by a 58% to 42% margin against banker Annette Taddeo, less than in past elections. Taddeo hasn't ruled out running again, and state Representative Luis Garcia is also thinking of running.[144] This southeastern Floridian district includes most of Miami, along with South Beach, Coral Gables, and the Florida Keys. Obama won 51% in 2008.[145] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[37]
- Florida's 22nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Ron Klein is running for reelection.[146] Republican former military officer Allen West, who Klein defeated 55% to 45% in 2008,[147] will run again.[148] This coastal district, which includes most of Ft. Lauderdale along with Boca Raton, Coconut Creek, and Deerfield Park, gave Obama 52% of the vote in 2008.[147] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+1)[37]
- Florida's 24th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Suzanne Kosmas is facing a challenge from four Republicans so far: Anethesiologist Ken Miller, state Representative Dorothy L. Hukill, Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel, and state Representative Sandy Adams.[149] This east central Florida district includes Orlando suburbs of Winter Springs and Winter Park, as well as part of the Space Coast, including Port Orange, Edgewater, and Titisville . McCain won 51% here in 2008.[150] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+4).[37]
- Florida's 25th congressional district: Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart had a difficult reelection in 2008, winning by 53% to 47% against Joe Garcia, a former chair of the Metro-Dade Democratic Party. Garcia may seek a rematch in 2010.[144] This southwestern Florida district consists of Collier County, Monroe County, and western Miami Dade County, includes the communities of Cutler Ridge, Leisure City, and Homestead, as well as the Florida Everglades. McCain won 50% here in 2008.[151] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[37]
Georgia
- Georgia's 9th congressional district: Republican incumbent Nathan Deal is retiring to run for governor.[15] On the Republican side, former state transportation board chairman Mike Evans, former state Senator Bill Stephens, state Senator Lee Hawkins, conservative activist Jeremy Jones, county district Commissioner Mike Cowan, and state Representative Tom Graves are running.[152] Other potential Republican candidates include talk radio host Martha Zoller, state Representatives Tom Graves and James Mills, state Senators Chip Pearson, David Ralston,[153] and Lee Hawkins, and former 12th district Congressman and teacher Max Burns.[154] This Northern Georgian district includes Gainesville, La Fayette, and Dalton.[155] This is the fourth most Republican district in the country: McCain won 75% in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+28). [37]
- Georgia's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Paul Broun may run for the United States Senate.[156] This northeastern Georgia district includes Athens, Toccoa and part of Augusta. McCain won 62% here in 2008.[157] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+15).[37]
- Georgia's 12th congressional district: While Democrat John Barrow was reelected by a margin of 66% to 34% in 2008,[158] he faced a close race in 2006, being reelected a margin of less than 1%.[159] Republican orthopedic surgeon and retired United States Army Lieutenant Golonel Wayne Mosley and former Thunderbolt Councilman and current town fire chief Carl Smith have announced that they will challenge Barrow.[160] Other potential Republican candidates include state Representatives Jon Burns and Bob Lane.[161] The district, which includes Statesboro, Vidalia, and Milledgeville, as well as most of the cities of Augusta and Savannah, gave Obama 54% of the vote in 2008.[162] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+1).[37]
Hawaii
- Hawaii's 1st congressional district: Democratic incumbent Neil Abercrombie is vacating this seat in order to run for governor.[163] Former second district Democratic Congressman Ed Case has announced his intention to run to replace Abercrombie.[164] Possible Democratic candidates are former state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa.[10] Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has announced his candidacy and has secured the backing of much of the state's Republican establishment, including governor Linda Lingle.[165] This district is based on the island of Oahu and includes Honolulu, Waipahu, and Pearl City. Obama won 70% of the district's vote in 2008, though in 2004 Republican George W. Bush was able to win 47% of the vote,[166] giving Republicans hope that they can win the district in 2010.[167] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+11).[37]
Idaho
- Idaho's 1st congressional district: Democrat Walt Minnick unseated Republican Bill Sali by a margin of 51% to 49% in 2008. Iraq War veteran Vaughn Ward is running for the seat and has the endorsement of Arizona senator John McCain.[168] State Representative Ken Roberts and physicist Allan Salzberg will challenge Ward in the Republican primary.[169] Sali is considering running again;[170] other Republicans considering the race are state Senator John McGee, former state Controller Keith Johnson, state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden,[171] and state Representative Raul Labrador.[172] The district, which includes the Panhandle, Moscow, Nampa, Caldwell, and part of Boise, gave McCain 62% of the vote in 2008.[173] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+18).[37]
Illinois
- Illinois's 6th congressional district: Republican incumbent Peter Roskam is considering running for the United States Senate.[174] This district includes Chicago's northwestern and western suburbs, including Wheaton, Glen Ellyn, Carol Stream, Elmhurst, and Elk Grove Village. This historically conservative holdout gave Obama 56% of the vote in 2008.[175] (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[37]
- Illinois's 7th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Danny K. Davis is retiring to running for Cook County Board President.[176] Democrat and chief deputy recorder of deeds for Cook County Darlena Williams-Burnett has announced her candidacy.[177] Potential Democratic candidates to replace Davis include former Davis chief of staff Richard Boykin, State Representatives LaShawn Ford, Karen Yarbrough, and State Senator Rickey Hendon.[178] The district includes Chicago's downtown and West Side, as well as some of the city's western suburbs, including Oak Park and Maywood. Obama won 88% here in 2008.[179] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+35).[37]
- Illinois's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Mark Kirk is retiring to run for the United States Senate.[16] On the Democratic side, 2006 and 2008 nominee Dan Seals, State Representative Julie Hamos, and Elliot Richardson have announced their intentions to run.[180] Mount Prospect mayoral hopeful Patricia Bird is running as a Republican.[181] On the Republican side, candidates considering a run to replace Kirk include businessmans Dick Green and Bill Strong, State Representatives Beth Coulson and Ed Sullivan, Lake County board member Ann Maine, Wilmette President Chris Canning,[181] and state Senator Dan Duffy.[182] The affluent district, which includes Chicago's northern and northwestern suburbs of Arlington Heights, Northbrook, Highland Park, North Chicago, and Waukegan, gave Obama 61% of the vote in 2008.[183] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+6) [37]
- Illinois's 11th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Debbie Halvorson has drawn two Republican challengers so far: real estate investor Henry W. Meers Jr., and Iraq War veteran Adam Kinzinger.[184] The district includes some of the exurbs south of Chicago including Joliet, Kankakee, and Ottawa, as well as part of Bloomington-Normal. Obama won 53% here in 2008.[185] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[37]
- Illinois's 13th congressional district: Republican incumbent Judy Biggert defeated Democratic businessman Scott Harper 54% to 44% in 2008, Biggert's smallest victory of her career. At the time of the 2010 election, Biggert will be 71 and intends to run and face Harper again.[186] The district includes the southwest Chicago suburbs, including Naperville, Downers Grove, Westmont, Woodridge, and Bolingbrook.[187] Obama won 54% here in 2008.[188] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[37]
- Illinois's 14th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Bill Foster won a 2008 special election to succeed Republican Dennis Hastert, the former Speaker of the House. Foster, who held the seat as an incumbent in 2008, is facing a challenge from attorney Ethan Hastert, Dennis Hastert's son.[189] State Senator Chris Lauzen is another potential Republican candidate.[190] This north central Illinois district includes Aurora, Elgin, DeKalb, and Dixon. Obama won 55% here in 2008.[188] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[37]
Indiana
- Indiana's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly may face a challenge from Mishawaka Mayor Jeff Rea, whom Republicans are hoping to recruit to run.[191] This north central Indiana district includes South Bend, Mishawaka, LaPorte, Michigan City, Elkhart, and part of Kokomo. Obama won 54% here in 2008.[192] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[37]
- Indiana's 5th congressional district: Republican incumbent Dan Burton defeated former Marion County Coronor John McGoff in the Republican primary by 52% to 45% in 2008, leading some to consider him vulnerable to a primary challenge. As result, Burton is increasing his fundraising and announced he will run for reelection.[193] Former Republican congressional candidate Brose McVey, state Republican Party executive director Luke Messer, State Representative Mike Murphy, and 2006 primary challenger against Burton John McGoff have all formally announced their intention to run.[194] Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi will run if Burton changes his mind and retires.[193] Other potential The east-central Indiana district, which includes suburban Hamilton County and Hancock County, and part of Indianapolis itself, gave McCain 59% of the vote in 2008.[195] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17).[37]
Iowa
- Iowa's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Leonard L. Boswell will face a challenge from aviation consultant Dave Funk.[196] Another possible Republican who may run is former state Republican Party chairman Michael Mahaffey. Boswell defeated Mahaffey for this seat in 1996, winning 49.3% to 47.6%.[197] The district includes the central and east central portion of Iowa, including Des Moines.[198] Obama won 54% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+1).[37]
- Iowa's 5th congressional district: Republican incumbent Steve King is considering a run for the governorship.[199] This western Iowa district, which includes Sioux City and Council Bluffs, gave McCain 55% of the vote in 2008.[200] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+9).[37]
Kansas
- Kansas's 1st congressional district: Republican incumbent Jerry Moran has announced that he will run for Sam Brownback's open United States Senate seat, thus vacating his House seat.[17] Six Republicans have entered the race: state Senator Tim Huelskamp, state Senator and the 2006 Republican nominee for governor Jim Barnett, former Brownback chief-of-staff Rob Wasinger, college instructor Sue Boldra, real-estate agent Tracey Mann,[201] and former Salina Mayor Monte Shadwick.[202] The district, which encompasses western Kansas and includes Salina, Hutchinson, and Dodge City, gave McCain 69% of the vote in 2008.[203] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+23).[37]
- Kansas's 4th congressional district: Republican incumbent Todd Tiahrt has announced that he will run for Kansas's open United States Senate seat.[18] Republican state Senator Dick Kelsey, Republican National Committeeman Mike Pompeo, and businessman Jim Anderson have announced they will run for the seat.[204] State Senator Jean Schodorf has formed an exploratory committee.[205] Retired court service officer Robert Tillman and state Representative Raj Goyle will run in the Democratic primary.[206] The district, which encompasses south centrel Kansas including Wichita, Newton, and Arkansas City, gave John McCain 58% of the vote in 2008.[207] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+14) [37]
Kentucky
Louisiana
- Louisiana's 2nd congressional district: Freshman Republican Anh “Joseph” Cao defeated indicted Democratic incumbent William Jefferson in 2008 in an upset.[208] Democratic state Representative Cedric Richmond, who unsuccessfully ran against Jefferson in the Democratic primary in 2008,[209] and State Representative Juan LaFonta have announced they will run.[210] Democratic state Senator Cheryl Gray may also run.[211] This urban New Orleans based district gave Obama 75% in 2008.[212] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+25).[37]
- Louisiana's 3rd congressional district: The only Democratic Congressman left in Louisiana, Charlie Melancon may run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.[213] state Representative Nickie Monica is running regardless of what race Melancon runs for.[214] Other potential Republican candidates include Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungresser,[215] the son of former state party chairman Bill Nungresser, St. John the Baptist Parish President Bill Hubbard, and Lafourche Parish President Charlotte Randolph.[216] Potential Democratic candidates who might run include Attorney Ravi Sangisetty, and state representative Gary Smith.[217] This south-central Louisiana district includes New Iberia, Houma, Thibodaux, and Laplace.[218] McCain won 61% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+12).[37]
Maine
- Maine's 2nd congressional district: Four term Blue Dog Democratic incumbent Mike Michaud is considering running for governor.[219] Businessman Jason Levesque will seek the Republican nomination.[220] This district is the largest in the Northeast and encompasses the northern and western parts of the state including the cities of Lewiston, Bangor, and Presque Isle. Obama won 55% of the vote here in 2008.[221] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+3).[37]
Maryland
- Maryland's 1st congressional district: Freshman Democrat Frank Kratovil defeated Republican state Senator Andy Harris by a margin of 49% to 48% in 2008.[222] Harris, businessman Grady Romblad, and Jefferson Ghrist will face off in the Republican primary.[223] Other potential Republican candidates include state Senator EJ Pipkin, who Harris defeated in the 2008 Republican primary,[224] former state House Majority Leader Alfred Redmer, state Senator Richard F. Colburn,[225] Anne Arundel County Executive John R. Leopold, and state Delegate Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio.[226][227] The district, which consists of Maryland's Eastern Shore as well as part of Anne Arundel County, gave McCain 58% of the vote in 2008.[228] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[37]
- Maryland's 4th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Donna Edwards may face a primary challenge from state Delegate Herman L. Taylor, Jr..[229] The district includes the inner part of Prince George's County and part of Montgomery County.[230] Obama won 85% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+31).[37]
Massachusetts
Michigan
- Michigan's 2nd congressional district: Republican Peter Hoekstra announced he will retire in order to run for governor.[19] Republican state Representative Bill Huizenga has announced his bid.[231] Pormer pro-football player Jay Riemersma has formed an exploratory committee,[232] and Republican state Senator Wayne Kuipers and businessman Bill Cooper are considering bids.[233] Author, teacher, and activist Bob Wood has announced his candidacy as a Democrat.[234] This western Michigan district includes the cities of Muskegon, Holland, and Ludington. McCain won 51% of the vote here in 2008.[235] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+7).[37]
- Michigan's 7th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Mark Schauer unseated Republican Tim Walberg 48.6% to 46.5% in 2008. Walberg is seeking a rematch.[236] Other potential Republican candidates include lawyer Brad Smith, the son of former Congressman Nick Smith,[237] Jackson County Prosecutor Hank Zavislak and Adrian College President Jeff Docking.[238] This south central Michigan district includes Battle Creek, Jackson, and Adrian.[239] Obama won 52% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[37]
- Michigan's 9th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Gary Peters unseated eight-term Republican Joe Knollenberg by a 52% to 43% margin in 2008. Peters is facing a challenge from Paul Welday, a former Knollenberg Chief of Staff and a former leader of the Oakland County Republican Party, and former State Representative Andrew Raczkowski.[240] This suburban Detroit district includes eastern Oakland County, including Rochester Hills, Troy, Royal Oak, Pontiac, Waterford, and Farmington Hills. Obama won 56% here in 2008.[241] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+2).[37]
- Michigan's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Candice Miller is a potential candidate for governor.[242] This southeastern Michigan district includes northern Macomb County, Port Huron, and most of the Michigan "Thumb". McCain won 50% here in 2008.[243] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[37]
- Michigan's 11th congressional district: In 2008, incumbent Republican Thad McCotter was reelected by only 51% to 45% against an underfunded challenger. National Democrats are seeking to target McCotter.[244] Fundraising consultant Natalie Mosher has announced her candidacy;[245] other potential Democratic candidates include state Representatives Richard LeBlanc and Marc Corriveau.[246] This suburban Detroit district includes Livonia, Westland, Milford, and Novi. Obama won 54% here in 2008.[247] (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[37]
- Michigan's 12th congressional district: Fourteen-term Democratic incumbent Sander Levin is facing a primary challenge from state Senator Mickey Switalski.[248] This district is based in the inner Detroit suburbs, including Warren, Clinton, Eastpointe, and Southfield. Obama won 65% of the vote here in 2008.[249] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+12).[37]
- Michigan's 13th congressional district: Democratic congresswomen Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, mother of convicted felon and former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, defeated former state Representitive Mary Waters and state Senator Martha Scott in the 2008 Democratic primary 39% to 35% to 25%, respectively.[250] Several Democrats are considering challenging Kilpatrick in 2010 including Waters, City Councilwoman Sheila Cockrel, and state Senators Buzz Thomas and Hanson Clarke.[251] The district includes much of Detroit , as well as the suburbs of Lincoln Park and Wyandotte. Obama won 85% here in 2008.[252] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+31).[37]
Minnesota
- Minnesota's 6th congressional district: Republican incumbent Michele Bachmann defeated her Democratic opponent, former state Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg, 46.4% to 43.4% in 2008.[253] In her Congressional career Bachmann has made a number of controversial comments, including calling "on Minnesotans to become 'armed and dangerous' in resisting President Obama’s energy policies," leading Democrats to target her for defeat.[254] Maureen Reed a former chair of the University of Minnesota’s Board of Regents and 2006 Independence Party candidate for Lieutenant Governor[255] and state Senator Tarryl Clark are running as Democrats.[256] Bachmann is also facing a primary challenge from attorney Chris Johnston.[257] The district includes the northern and eastern suburbs of the Twin Cities, including Stillwater, Hugo, Andover, and Elk River, as well as St. Cloud. McCain won 53% here in 2008.[253] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+7) [37]
Mississippi
- Mississippi's 1st congressional district: Democrat Travis Childers will seek reelection.[258] After being narrowly elected to a vacant seat in a 2008 special election, Childers won a full term in 2008 with a 54% to 46% margin. Republican state Senator Alan Nunnelee is running.[259] This Northern Mississippi district includes the cities of Tupelo, Southaven, and Columbus. McCain won 62% of the vote here in 2008.[260] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+14).[37]
Missouri
- Missouri's 1st congressional district: Democratic incumbent Lacy Clay is considering vacating this seat in order to run for the state's open United States Senate seat.[261] The district includes the northern part of the city of St. Louis as well as the northeastern part of St. Louis County, including University City, Maryland Heights, and Ferguson. Obama won 80% here in 2008.[262] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+27).[37]
- Missouri's 4th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Ike Skelton who will be 78 in 2010, has long been a popular figure in this west-central Missouri district, winning reelection by overwhelming margins. In 2009, Skelton was criticized for his votes in support of the economic stimulous plan and the cap and trade climate change bill. Republican former state Representative Vicky Hartzler, who has close ties to religious conservatives, has filed papers to run. [263] This district includes the Kansas City suburbs and Jefferson City in the west central part of the state. McCain won 61% here in 2008.[264] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+14).[37]
- Missouri's 7th congressional district: Republican incumbent Roy Blunt is running for the United States Senate.[20] Current Republican candidates include Greene County Prosecutor Darrell Moore, state Senators Jack Goodman and Gary Nodler, autioneer Billy Long, and college instructor Jeff Wisdom.[265] Other potential Republican candidates include former state Representitive B.J. Marsh, Jasper County Republican Party chairman John Putnam, Nixa Alderman Kevin Elmer, state Representitive Bryan Stevenson,[266] and Greene County Circuit Clerk Steve Helms.[267] This southwestern Missouri district includes Springfield and Joplin. McCain won 63% here in 2008.[268] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17).[37]
Montana
Nebraska
- Nebraska's 2nd congressional district: Republican incumbent Lee Terry has had difficult reelections in 2006 and 2008. He may face a challenge from Democratic state Senator Tom White.[269] This eastern Nebraska district includes Omaha and its suburbs.[270] Obama won 50% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
Nevada
- Nevada's 2nd congressional district: Republican incumbent Dean Heller has announced he is running for reelection, although he has not ruled out running for Governor.[271] This district includes Reno, Sparks, Carson City, and the "Cow Counties". McCain won 49% here in 2008.[272] (Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5) [37]
- Nevada's 3rd congressional district: Freshman Democrat Dina Titus may face a challenge from former banking executive John Guedry, who has stated his interest and promises to announce his decision by the end of July 2009.[273] Other potential candidates include former Clark County Republican Party Chairman Brian Scroggins, former Nevada state Controller Steve Martin and James Dean Leavitt, a lawyer and regent for the Nevada System of Higher Education.[274] The district is based in the Las Vegas suburbs, including East Las Vegas, Spring Valley, Henderson, Boulder City, and Laughlin.[275] Obama won 55% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+2) [37]
New Hampshire
- New Hampshire's 1st congressional district: Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter will seek reelection.[276] She is expected to be targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee and the district has been noted as one of the best chances for a Republican pick up in New England in 2010.[277] It also has been marked by Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post's House Line column as one of the top five districts to most likely switch parties in 2010.[278] Cited as one of the top tier recruits of the National Republican Congressional Committee for 2010, Republican Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta is running for this seat.[279] Other possible Republican candidates include Robert Bestani, a Newmarket businessman,Republican National Committeeman Sean Mahoney, and 2008 candidate John Stephen, the state's former Health Commissioner. The district consists of the eastern half of New Hampshire including the cities of Manchester, Rochester, Portsmouth, Laconia, Derry, and Dover. Obama won 53% of the vote in this district in 2008.[280] (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[37]
- New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Paul Hodes is vacating this seat to run for the United States Senate.[12] On the Democratic side, lawyer and party activist Ann McLane Kuster and state Representative John DeJoie, are running with party activist and 2002 nominee Katrina Swett likely to run as well. Former State Representative Bob Giuda is likely running on the Republican side.[281] Other potential Republican candidates include radio talk show host and 2008 nominee Jennifer Horn, former state Senator and 2008 candidate Bob Clegg, and former Congressman Charlie Bass.[282] The district consists of the western half of New Hampshire including the cities of Nashua, Concord, Keene, Claremont, and Lebanon. Obama won 56% of the vote here in 2008.[283] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+3).[37]
New Jersey
- New Jersey's 3rd congressional district: Freshman Democrat John Adler defeated Lockheed Martin executive Chris Myers 51.7% to 48.3% in 2008.[284] Republicans are targeting this seat.[285] Adler has drawn one Republican challenger so far, former Tabernacle committeeman Justin M. Murphy [286] who finished third in the 2008 Republican primary for this seat behind Myers and Ocean County Freeholder John P. Kelly. Other potential Republican candidates include Myers, Kelly, state Senator Diane Allen, Ocean County State Committeewoman Virginia “Ginny” Haines, Freeholder Bill Haines,[287] and state Assemblywoman Dawn Marie Addiego. This south central New Jersey district includes Marlton, Mount Holly, Cherry Hill, and Toms River.[288] Obama won 52% of the vote here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[37]
- New Jersey's 12th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Rush Holt may face a challenge from Republican Fair Haven Mayor Mike Halfacre. Halfacre has filled paperwork for a possible campaign.[289] This central New Jersey district includes part of Trenton as well as East Brunswick and Princeton. Obama won 58% here in 2008.[290] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+5).[37]
New Mexico
- New Mexico's 1st congressional district: Freshman Democrat Martin Heinrich will face a challenge from former statewide Republican party vice chairman Jon Barela.[291] Republican Kevin Daniels, an owner of a chain of funeral homes who can self finance his own campaigns may enter the race as well.[291] This district consists of the central area of New Mexico including Albuquerque. Obama won 60% in 2008.[292] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+5).[37]
- New Mexico's 2nd congressional district: Freshman Democrat Harry Teague will be challenged by Republican Steve Pearce, who held this seat until 2008, when he ran for the United States Senate.[293] The district consists of southern New Mexico including Silver City, Las Cruces, Roswell, and the Little Texas region. McCain won 50% of the vote here in 2008.[294] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
New York
- New York's 1st congressional district: In 2008, Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop was reelected with 58% against an unknown opponent. This year, he will face a challenge from wealthy businessman Randy Altschuler.[295] Bishop got some adverse press when a June 23 Town Hall meeting in Setauket drew some 200 protesters who were angry at Bishop's vote for the Cap and Trade bill and federal bailouts, and the meeting grew so vocal that Bishop had to be escorted to his car by five county policemen.[296] This district, which includes eastern Suffolk County, gave Obama 51% in 2008.[297] (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[37]
- New York's 3rd congressional district: Republican incumbent Peter T. King is considering vacating his seat in order to run for the United States Senate.[298] Potential Democratic candidates for this seat include Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice, Council on Foreign Relations member Isobel Coleman, minor league baseball team owner Frank Boulton, and Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi.[299] This Long Island district includes Levittown, Hicksville, and Long Beach. McCain won 52% here in 2008.[300] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+4).[37]
- New York's 19th congressional district: Democratic incumbent John Hall is facing a challenge from Republican state Assemblyman Greg Ball.[301] This Hudson Valley district includes Peekskill and West Point. Obama won 51% here in 2008.[302] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[37]
- New York's 20th congressional district: Democratic venture capitalist Scott Murphy won a March 2009 special election for this seat, defeating then- state Assembly Republican leader Jim Tedisco by 726 votes.[303] Some New York Republican leaders are encouraging Tedisco to run again in 2010;[304] other potential Republican candidates include 2006 Gubernatorial nominee John Faso and former New York Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell,[305] who was defeated here by then Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand 38% to 62% in 2008.[306] This Upstate New York district includes Hudson, Saratoga Springs, and Glens Falls.[307] Obama won 51% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[37]
- New York's 24th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Mike Arcuri won by a closer than expected margin over Republican challenger Richard Hanna in 2008, winning 52% to 48%.[308] Republicans are trying to recruit Hanna for a rematch.[309] This Upstate New York district includes Utica, Auburn, and Rome. Obama won 50% here in 2008.[310] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[37]
- New York's 29th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Eric Massa has indicated that he will run for maintaining his campaign fund for reelection.[311] Massa is only the second Democrat (Stan Lundine being the other) to have represented the geographic area since 1913. Republican Corning Mayor Tom Reed is running to unseat Massa.[312] Other pssible Republican candidates include state Assemblyman Tom O’Mara, Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, state Senators Catharine Young and George Winner,[313] Chemung County Executive Tom Santulli, and attorney Bill Nojay.[314] This Southern Tier based district includes Elmira, Corning, Olean, and suburban Rochester; the district gave McCain 50% of the vote in 2008.[315] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[37]
North Carolina
- North Carolina's 8th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Larry Kissell unseated Republican incumbent Robin Hayes by a 55% to 45% margin in 2008, after having lost to Hayes by 329 votes in 2006. Hayes, Union County District Attorney John Snyder,[316] former Republican state Representative Mia Morris White,[317] and nuclear security coordinator Linwood Faulk are considering runs.[318] The district includes much of south-central North Carolina, including the cities of Laurinburg, Albemarle, Concord, Kannapolis, and parts of Charlotte and Fayetteville. Obama won 52% here in 2008.[319] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[37]
- North Carolina's 11th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Heath Shuler could face a potential Republican challenge from Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman, 2008 candidate Carl Mumpower, or Henderson County District Attorney Jeff Hunt.[320] This Western North Carolina district includes Ashville, Hendersonville, Brevard, and Waynesville. [321] McCain won 52% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
North Dakota
Ohio
- Ohio's 1st congressional district: Democrat Steve Driehaus unseated Republican Steve Chabot in 2008, winning by a margin of 52.5% to 47.5%. Chabot announced he will seek a rematch.[322] The district includes western Cincinnati as well as some of the city's suburbs. Obama won 55% of the vote here in 2008.[323] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+1).[37]
- Ohio's 2nd congressional district: In 2008, Republican incumbent Jean Schmidt defeated Democrat Victoria Wells Wulsin 45% to 37%, with independent candidate David Krikorian receiving 18% of the vote.[324] Both Krikorian and health care administrator Jim Parker will compete in the Democratic primary.[325] In addition, Democratic state Representative Todd Book has announced his candidacy.[326] This district includes eastern Cincinnati and some of the city's suburbs as well as Portsmouth. McCain won 59% of the vote here in 2008.[324] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[37]
- Ohio's 15th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy defeated Republican then- state Senator Steve Stivers by 2,312 votes in 2008. Stivers is seeking a rematch.[327] The district includes western Columbus and some of the city's suburbs, including Worthington, Hilliard, and Grove City.[328] Obama won 54% of the vote here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+1).[37]
- Ohio's 16th congressional district: In 2008, Democratic state Senator John Boccieri won this historically Republican district by a 55% to 45% margin, helped by avoidable gaffes by his Republican opponent. Some Republicans wish that Ashland County Commissioner Matthew Miller had been the nominee that year, but he was defeated in the primary. Miller has been approached about running again, and he hasn't ruled another campaign.[329]
- Ohio's 18th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Zack Space faces potential Republican challenges from state Senators Jimmy Stewart and John Carey and state Representative Jay Hottinger.[330] This eastern Ohio district includes Zanesville and Chillicothe. McCain won 53% here in 2008.[331] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+7).[37]
Oklahoma
- Oklahoma's 5th congressional district: Republican Mary Fallin is vacating this seat to run for governor.[21] State Representative Mike Thompson announced his candidacy at the state's Republican convention in April.[332] Former state Representative Kevin Calvey, who Fallin defeated in the 2006 Republican primary for this seat, is running again and is being supported by the conservative organization the Club for Growth. Physician Johnny Roy, who also ran in 2006, is another announced Republican candidate.[333] Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett, who also lost to Fallin in the 2006 Republican primary, is considering running.[334] Other potential Republican candidates are Corporation Commissioners Jeff Cloud and Bob Anthony, state Senators Todd Lamb and Glenn Coffee [335] This district includes most of Oklahoma City as well as Pottawatomie and Seminole counties. McCain won 59% of the vote here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[37]
Oregon
- Oregon's 2nd congressional district: Republican incumbent Greg Walden is considering a run for governor.[336] This eastern Oregon district includes Bend and Medford. McCain won 54% here in 2008.[337] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+10).[37]
- Oregon's 4th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Peter DeFazio may run for governor.[338] Republican Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken has announced his candidacy for this seat.[339] The district consists of southwestern Oregon, including Eugene, Springfield, Roseburg, Coos Bay, Albany, and part of Corvallis: Obama won 54% here in 2008.[340] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+2).[37]
Pennsylvania
- Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper unseated eight-term Republican Phil English in 2008 in something of a surprise. Republicans would like to win this district back into their column. Elaine Surma, a senior agent with the state Attorney General's office, is seriously thinking of running [341] This Northwestern Pennsylvania district includes the city of Erie. Obama won 49% here in 2008.[342] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3). [37]
- Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire may face a challenge from state House Republican Whip Mike Turzai.[343] This Western Pennsylvania district includes Lawrence County and Beaver County and some of Pittsburgh's suburbs and exurbs, including Plum and Murryville. McCain won 55% here in 2008.[344] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[37]
- Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district: Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach is retiring to run for governor.[22] Journalist Doug Pike is running for this seat as a Democrat.[345] Other potential Democratic candidates include state Senator Andy Dinniman and attorney Dan Wofford,[346] who Gerlach defeated 51.4% to 48.6% in 2002.[347] Republican state Representative Curt Schroder prepared a campaign by raising money[348] and officially announced his candidacy shortly after Gerlach's announcement.[349] Schroder will have to face Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello in the Republican primary.[350] This southeastern Pennsylvania district, which includes some of Philadelphia's suburbs, including Ardmore, Norristown, Phoenixville, and Coatesville, as well as part of Reading, gave Obama 58% of the vote in 2008.[351] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+4).[37]
- Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Joe Sestak is retiring to challenge Republican turned Democratic United States Senator Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary.[13] State Representative Bryan Lentz has said he will run for the seat, but has yet to file papers.[352] Steven Welch, the founder of the biopharmaceutical manufacturing company Mitos Technologies has announced his intentions to run.[353] Republicans though are trying to persuade former U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan to enter. Other Republicans eyeing the race include former Assistant U.S. Attorney Craig Williams, who ran in 2008.[352] This suburban Philadelphia district includes most of Delaware County. Obama won 56% here in 2008.[354] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+3).[37]
- Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Chris Carney will face a challenge from Iraq War veteran Christopher Bain.[355] Bain maybe challenged in the Republican primary by Lackawanna Trail School Director Dan Naylor, chiropractor David J. Madeira, and Dan Meuser, who ran in the 2008 Republican primary.[356] This northeastern Pennsylvania district includes the central Susquehanna Valley.[357] McCain won 53% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+8).[37]
- Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district: In 2008, Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski was reelected by a 52% to 48% margin over Republican Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta. Barletta, who was also the 2002 nominee against Kanjorski, is considering running again.[358] Kanjorski may also face a primary challenge from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien [359] or Scranton mayor Chris Doherty.[360] This northeast Pennsylvania district includes Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Hazelton. Obama won 57% here in 2008.[361] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+4).[37]
- Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Jack Murtha beat Republican Bill Russell in 2008 58% to 42% [362] after some controversial comments from Murtha calling his constituents "racists" and "rednecks" gave Russell a chance to pull closer in the race.[363] Murtha will receive a primary challenge from former naval officer Ryan Bucchianeri.[364] Russell is taking another shot at defeating Murtha,[365] with a Republican primary challenge from businessman Tim Burns.[366] Murtha has been linked to an investigation of the lobbying group PMA Group.[367] This southwestern Pennsylvania district includes Johnstown. McCain won 49% of the vote in this district in 2008.[362] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[37]
- Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district: Republican incumbent Charlie Dent will face a strong challenge from Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan.[368] The district comprises all of Northampton County, most of Lehigh County and the Lehigh Valley, Indian Valley, Upper Perkiomen Valley and small parts of Berks and Montgomery counties. Obama won 56% of the vote in this district in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+2).[37]
Rhode Island
South Carolina
- South Carolina's 1st congressional district: Republican incumbent Henry E. Brown, Jr. won a narrow 52% to 48% reelection against Democrat Linda Ketner in 2008, emboldening potential Republican challengers.[369] Former Brown staffer Katherine Jenerette, who won 19% against Brown in the 2008 Republican primary, is running.[370] Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell III, the son of former Governor Carroll A. Campbell, Jr., is considering challenging Brown in the Republican primary.[371] Democrat restauranteur Robert Dobbs has announced his candidacy.[372] Possible Democratic candidates include former state Representitive Robert Barber, current state Representitive Leon Stavrinakis, and attorney Ashley Cooper.[373] This eastern South Carolina district includes part of Charleston and Myrtle Beach. McCain won 56% here in 2008.[374] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+10).[37]
- South Carolina's 2nd congressional district: Republican incumbent Joe Wilson defeated his Democratic challenger, Iraq War veteran Rob Miller, 54% to 46% in 2008. Miller is running again.[375] The district includes Hilton Head Island as well as part of Columbia and its suburbs. McCain won 54% here in 2008.[376] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+9). [37]
- South Carolina's 3rd congressional district: Republican incumbent J. Gresham Barrett will retire to run for governor. Announced Republican candidates for this seat include attorney Neal Collins,[377] State Senator Shane Massey,[378] former Assistant United States Attorney James Galyean,[379] physician Mike Vasovski,[380] State Representative Jeff Duncan,[381] businessman Richard Cash,[382] and state Representative Rex Rice.[383] The district, which consists of the western part of South Carolina including Anderson, Easley, Greenwood, Edgefield, and Aiken, gave McCain 64% of the vote in 2008.[384] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17).[37]
- South Carolina's 4th congressional district: Republican Bob Inglis is facing primary election challenges from political science teacher Christina Jeffrey, information systems consultant Jim Lee, construction company owner Rick Mahler, Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy, and state Senator David Thomas.[385] Other potential Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer, business man Tim Carnes,[386] and former Greenville County Republican chairman Steven Brown.[387] The district, which includes the cities of Greenville and Spartanburg, gave McCain 60% of the vote in 2008.[388] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+15).[37]
South Dakota
- South Dakota's at-large congressional district: Democratic incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is running for reelection.[389] Communications consultant Thad Wasson intends to challenge Herseth Sandlin.[390] Republican State Secretary of State Chris Nelson may run.[391] The district consists of the entire state of South Dakota. McCain won 53% here in 2008.[392] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+9).[37]
Tennessee
- Tennessee's 1st congressional district: Freshman Republican Phil Roe may face a rematch from former Congressman David Davis in the Republican primary. Roe unseated Davis in the 2008 primary by 500 votes.[393] This East Tennessee district includes the Tri-Cities and Morristown. McCain won 70% of the vote in this district in 2008.[394] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+21).[37]
- Tennessee's 3rd congressional district: Republican Representative Zach Wamp has announced that he will be running for governor in 2010.[24] Republicans Tim Gobble, the Bradley County Sheriff, former radio host Chuck Fleischmann, businessman Mark DeVol,[395] electrical engineer Tom Crangle,[396] and state Republican Party Chair Robin Smith [397] have declared their intentions to run. On the Democratic side, former state Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers and computer systems analysts Brent Benedict, who Wamp defeated in 2006, will run for this seat.[395] This East Tennessee district, which includes Chattanooga and Oak Ridge, gave John McCain 62% of the vote in 2008.[398] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[37]
- Tennessee's 9th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen is facing a primary challenge from Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton. Cohen is the only white member of Congress to represent a majority African-American district.[399] The district consists of most of the city of Memphis. Obama won 77% of the vote here in 2008.[400] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+23).[37]
Texas
- Texas's 10th congressional district: Republican Representative Michael McCaul will run for reelection.[401] Democratic Austin high-tech executive Jack McDonald has formed an exploritory committee for a possible campaign for this seat.[401] McDonald received attention from national Democrats in April 2009 after he announced he had raised $309,000 in five weeks.[402] The district includes northeastern Austin, Giddings, Brenham, and some of Houston's western suburbs, including Cypress, Katy, and Tomball. McCain won 55% of the vote here in 2008.[403] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+10).[37]
- Texas's 17th congressional district: Democratic Representative Chet Edwards was reelected by a 53% to 45% against Republican small business owner Rob Curnock, who was overwhelmingly outspent. Curnock is running again; businessman Darren Yancy is also running, while businessman Chuck Wilson has formed an exploratory committee. Other potential Republican candidates include David McIntyre, director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M, retired Air Force Colonel Jeff Beene, and state Senator Steve Ogden.[404] This east central Texas district district includes Waco, College Station, and Bryan.[405] McCain won 67% in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+20).[37]
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
- Virginia's 2nd congressional district: Freshman Democrat Glenn Nye is expected to be targeted by state Republicans.[406] Chuck Smith, an attorney and the former chairman of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, is running, as are three businessman: Ed Maulbeck, Ben Loyola, and Scott Rigell.[407] Other potential Republican candidates include former Amerigroup CEO Jeff McWaters, and Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms.[408] The district includes Virginia Beach, parts of Norfolk, and parts of Hampton. Obama won 50% here in 2008.[409] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[37]
- Virginia's 5th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Tom Perriello unseated Republican Virgil Goode by 727 votes in 2008. Assembly line worker Bradley Rees will run in the Republican primary.[410] Other potential Republican candidates include state Senator Robert Hurt, former state Senator Brandon Bell, and state Delegate Rob Bell.[411] The district includes much of south-central Virginia including the cities of Danville and Charlottesville. McCain won 51% here in 2008.[412] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[37]
- Virginia's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Frank Wolf is running for reelection. Potential Democratic candidates include state Senator Mark Herring and state Delegate David Poisson.[413] This Northern Virginia district includes Clarke County, Loudoun County, and parts of Fairfax County, including McLean and Chantilly.[414] Obama won 53% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[37]
- Virginia's 11th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Gerald Connolly defeated Republican businessman Keith Fimian 55% to 43% in 2008. Fimian is planning to run again; other potential Republican candidates include CEO Rocky Johnson, Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, and state Senator Tim Hugo.[415] This Northern Virginia district includes most of Fairfax County including the cities of Fairfax, Annandale, Burke, and Mount Vernon, as well as part of Prince William County. Obama won 57% here in 2008.[416] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+2).[37]
Washington
- Washington's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Brian Baird who could be seeking his seventh term if he decides to run for reelection will face a challenge from financial advisor David Castillo.[417] In every election after 2000, Baird beat his challenger with more than 60% of the vote. This district includes the southernmost portion of western Washington from Olympia to the Columbia River, including Centralia, Longview, and Vancouver. Obama won 53% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[37]
- Washington's 8th congressional district: Republican Dave Reichert is facing a challenge from Democrat Suzan DelBene, a former Microsoft vice president.[418] Reichert may decide to run for the United States Senate against incumbent Democrat Patty Murray.[419] This district includes some of suburban Seattle, Bellevue, Sammamish, and eastern Pierce County. Obama won 56% here in 2008.[420] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+3).[37]
- Washington's 9th congressional district: Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith is facing a challenge from Republicans state Representative Tom Campbell, Pierce County Councilman Dick Muri, and 2008 congressional nominee James Postma.[421] This district includes the south Seattle suburbs of Renton, Kent, Federal Way, Auburn, and Puyallup, as well as a small part of Tacoma.[422] Obama won 58% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+5).[37]
West Virginia
Wisconsin
- Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Ron Kind will face a challenge from Republican state Senator Dan Kapanke.[423] This western Wisconsin district includes Eau Claire and La Crosse.[424] Obama won 58% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+4).[37]
- Wisconsin's 8th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Steve Kagen is facing a challenge from Republican Door County Supervisor Marc Savard, Brown County Supervisor Andy Williams, and businessman Reid Ribble.[425] This northeastern Wisconsin district includes the cities of Green Bay and Appleton. Obama won 53% here in 2008.[426] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[37]
Wyoming
See also
United States Senate elections, 2010
United States House of Representatives
References
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