2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia: Difference between revisions

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All counties have certified the vote. https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/access-to-races
Updated totals as of 7pm EST. All counties now certified. https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/summary
Line 22: Line 22:
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| 1data1 = '''1,617,035<br />32.9%'''
| 1data1 = '''1,617,035<br />32.9%'''
| 2data1 = '''2,288,607<br />51.04%'''
| 2data1 = '''2,288,923<br />51.04%'''
| candidate2 = [[Kelly Loeffler]]
| candidate2 = [[Kelly Loeffler]]
| image2 = [[File:Kelly Loeffler (cropped).jpg|x150px]]
| image2 = [[File:Kelly Loeffler (cropped).jpg|x150px]]
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| 1data2 = '''1,273,214<br />25.9%'''
| 1data2 = '''1,273,214<br />25.9%'''
| 2data2 = 2,194,933<br />48.96%
| 2data2 = 2,195,373<br />48.96%
| candidate4 = [[Doug Collins (politician)|Doug Collins]]
| candidate4 = [[Doug Collins (politician)|Doug Collins]]
| image4 = [[File:Doug Collins, Official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg|x150px]]
| image4 = [[File:Doug Collins, Official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg|x150px]]

Revision as of 01:44, 16 January 2021

Not to be confused with 2020 Georgia State Senate election.
For the other Senate election in Georgia, see 2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia.

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia
← 2016 November 3, 2020 (first round)
January 5, 2021 (runoff)		 2022 →
 
Candidate Raphael Warnock Kelly Loeffler
Party Democratic Republican
First round 1,617,035
32.9% 		1,273,214
25.9%
Runoff 2,288,923
51.04% 		2,195,373
48.96%
 
Candidate Doug Collins Deborah Jackson
Party Republican Democratic
First round 980,454
20.0% 		324,118
6.60%
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated
Map key
Warnock:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Loeffler:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Collins:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Kelly Loeffler
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

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The 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia arose from the resignation of Republican Class III Senator Johnny Isakson, effective December 31, 2019. Governor Brian Kemp appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler to serve as Isakson's interim replacement, effective January 6, 2020, and she has held the seat since. The election was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as with other elections to the Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The winner, Raphael Warnock, will serve out the remainder of Isakson's third term, which ends on January 3, 2023.

In accordance with Georgia law, no primary election took place for the special election; all candidates, regardless of party, were placed on the same ballot (known as a nonpartisan blanket primary), and the election was held on November 3, 2020. Democrat Raphael Warnock received the most votes with 32.9%, and Loeffler came in second with 25.9%. As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates advanced to a runoff election on January 5, 2021.[1]

The runoff was held concurrently with one for the regular Class II election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by Republican David Perdue and challenged by Jon Ossoff, which had also advanced to a runoff. Following the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus held 48, including two independents who caucus with the Democrats. The two runoff elections therefore decided the balance of the United States Senate under the incoming Biden administration. Winning both seats would give the Democrats a majority, thanks to Democratic vice president-elect Kamala Harris's tiebreaking vote. The extraordinarily high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide and globally.

Major media outlets, including Decision Desk HQ, the Associated Press, The New York Times, and NBC News, called the election for Warnock in the early hours of January 6, just minutes after he apparently declared victory. Though Loeffler vowed to challenge the results after she returned from the electoral vote certification in Washington,[2] she conceded on January 7.[3] Ossoff and Warnock became the first Democrats to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia since Zell Miller in the 2000 special election. Warnock is the first African-American senator from Georgia, as well as the first African-American Democrat from the South elected to the Senate.[4] Hours later, Ossoff was called as the winner of the regular Senate election, effectively giving the Democrats control of the Senate.[5][6] The two elections mark the first time since 1994 that both Senate seats in a state have flipped from one party to the other in a single election cycle.

The election results are likely to be certified around January 20, 2021, after which the senators-elect may take office.[7]

Background

On August 28, 2019, Isakson announced that he would resign from the Senate effective December 31 due to his deteriorating health.[8] This triggered a special election to fill the remainder of his term. On September 17, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp launched a website inviting Georgia citizens to submit their résumés in order to be considered for appointment.[9] President Donald Trump advocated the appointment of Representative Doug Collins.[10] Kemp appointed Loeffler to fill the seat until the 2020 special election; she took office on January 6, 2020.[11]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Despite the large number of candidates in the special election, by October 4, 2020, the Democratic Party had largely consolidated around Warnock's candidacy and had pressured other Democratic candidates, such as Matt Lieberman, to drop out to avoid vote-splitting.[12]

Advanced to runoff

Eliminated

Declined

Matt Lieberman
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Raphael Warnock
U.S. Presidents
  • Jimmy Carter, 39th President of the United States (1977-1981), Governor of Georgia (1971-1975)[34]
  • Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009-2017), U.S. Senator from Illinois (2005-2008)[35]
U.S. Vice Presidents
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State Legislators
County officials
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Individuals

Republican Party

Advanced to runoff

Eliminated

Withdrawn

Declined

Kelly Loeffler
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
Federal officials
State officials
Organizations
Individuals
Doug Collins
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Libertarian Party

Declared

Green Party

Declared

  • John "Green" Fortuin[82]

Independents

Declared

Special election

Polling

Jungle primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Collins (R) 		Matt
Lieberman (D) 		Kelly
Loeffler (R) 		Ed
Tarver (D) 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Other Undecided
Landmark Communications November 1, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 24% 5% 27% 1% 38% 1%[b] 3%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,036 (LV) ± 3% 21% 8% 26% 3% 41% 1%[c] –
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 749 (LV) ± 3.5% 27%[d] 8% 24% 2% 38% 2%[e] –
Landmark Communications October 28, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 23% 9% 25% 1% 37% 2%[f] 3%
Public Policy Polling October 27–28, 2020 661 (V) – 19% 2% 27% 0% 46% 2%[g] 4%
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (RV) ± 4.4% 18% 4% 21% 3% 41% 7%[h] 6%
504 (LV)[i] 19% – 22% – 41% – –
504 (LV)[j] 20% – 22% – 42% – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.3% 23% 2% 22% 1% 48% 2%[k] 2%
University of Georgia October 14–23, 2020 1,145 (LV) ± 4% 21% 4% 20% 1% 34% 5%[l] 14%
Landmark Communications October 21, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 27% – 24% – 33% – –
Citizen Data October 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 19% 4% 23% 1% 41% 3% 10%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 27% 12% 20% 2% 27% 2%[m] 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 17% 7% 23% 2% 32% 1%[n] 18%[o]
Opinion Insight (R)[A] October 12–15, 2020 801 (LV) ± 3.46% 18%[p] 3% 19% 1% 31% 14%[q] 18%[r]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 22% 5% 20% 2% 41% 0%[s] 9%
SurveyUSA October 8–12, 2020 677 (LV) ± 5.7% 20% 8% 26% 3% 30% 2%[t] 12%
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 22% 10% 22% – 30% 17%[u] –
Public Policy Polling October 8–9, 2020 528 (V) ± 4.3% 22% 3% 24% 0% 41% 2%[v] 8%
Landmark Communications October 7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 23% 3% 26% 0% 36% 4%[w] 8%
University of Georgia September 27 – October 6, 2020 1,106 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 3% 22% 4% 28% 3%[x] 19%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 25% 5% 21% 2% 38% 1%[y] 7%
Hart Research Associates (D)[B] September 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 21% 8%[z] 28% 3% 28% – –
Quinnipiac University September 23–27, 2020 1,125 (LV) ± 2.9% 22% 9% 23% 4% 31% 0%[aa] 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 23–26, 2020 789 (LV) ± 3.49% 16% 16% 25% – 26% 3%[ab] 14%
Monmouth University September 17–21, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 22% 11% 23% 4% 21% 6%[ac] 13%
402 (LV)[i] 23% 11% 23% 3% 23% 5%[ad] 12%
402 (LV)[j] 24% 9% 23% 2% 25% 4%[ae] 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 16–21, 2020 523 (LV) ± 4.9% 19% 7% 23% 4% 19% 1%[af] 27%[ag]
University of Georgia September 11–20, 2020 1,150 (LV) ± 4.0% 21% 11% 24% 5% 20% 4%[ah] 16%
Data For Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 22% 14% 21% – 26% – 17%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–17, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 19% 15% 26% – 21% 5%[ai] 15%
GBAO Strategies (D)[C] September 14–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 19% 11% 29% 5% 25% – –
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[D] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 20% 10% 24% 7% 19% 1%[aj] 19%
Opinion Insight (R)[A] August 30 – September 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 20%[ak] 4% 17% 1% 17% 13%[al] 27%
HarrisX (D)[E] August 20–30, 2020 1,616 (RV) ± 2.4% 21% 13% 26% 7% 16% 18%[am] –
SurveyUSA August 6–8, 2020 623 (LV) ± 5.3% 17% 13% 26% 3% 17% 2%[an] 21%
HIT Strategies (D)[F] July 23–31, 2020 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 18% 14% 22% 6% 14% 1%[ao] 23%
Monmouth University July 23–27, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 20% 14% 26% 5% 9% 8%[ap] 18%
402 (LV)[i] 21% 14% 26% 5% 10% 6%[aq] 17%
402 (LV)[j] 22% 13% 26% 4% 10% 6%[ar] 19%
Spry Strategies (R)[G] July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 20% 23% 19% 9% – – 20%
GBAO Strategies (D)[C] July 6–9, 2020 600 (LV) – 26% 19% 21% 9% 16% – –
Battleground Connect (R)[H] July 6–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 26% 15% 17% 5% 10% 2%[as] 26%
Gravis Marketing (R)[I] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 26% 11% 24% 9% 18% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[J] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 23% 11% 21% 3% 20% – 22%
MRG (D)[K] June 18–23, 2020 1,259 (LV) – 27% 13% 21% – 23% 5%[at] 12%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 14% 12% 6% 18% 4%[au] 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 19% 17% 18% – 9% 11%[av] 26%
Cygnal (R)[L] April 25–27, 2020 591 (LV) ± 4.0% 29% 12% 11% 4% 11% 2%[aw] 31%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.01% 36% 11% 13% 3% 16% 4%[ax] 17%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 24, 2020 1,025 (LV)[ay] – 34% 18% 14% 5% 13% – 15%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 21, 2020 1,025 (LV)[az] – 32% 19% 15% 5% 12% – 18%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 12, 2020 1,025 (LV)[ba] – 30% 18% 19% 5% 10% – 18%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 7, 2020 1,025 (LV)[bb] – 29% 16% 20% 5% 12% – 18%
University of Georgia February 24 – March 2, 2020 1,117 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 11% 19% 4% 6% 8%[bc] 31%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] February 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) ± 3.0% 28% 5% 20% 3% 13% – 31%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[M] February 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19% 18% 20% –[bd] – 7%[be] 21%
January 30, 2020 Warnock announces his candidacy
January 29, 2020 Collins announces his candidacy
January 10, 2020 Tarver announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[H] December 16–18, 2019 600 (LV) – 32% 42% 11% – — — 16%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[144] Tossup October 13, 2020
Inside Elections[145] Tossup December 14, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[146] Tossup October 8, 2020
Daily Kos[147] Tossup October 30, 2020
Politico[148] Lean R September 9, 2020
RCP[149] Lean R September 27, 2020
Niskanen[150] Likely R September 15, 2020
DDHQ[151] Tossup October 27, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[152] Lean D (flip) October 28, 2020
Economist[153] Tossup October 28, 2020

Results

Since no candidate won a majority of the vote on November 3, the top two finishers—Loeffler and Warnock—advanced to a January 5, 2021 runoff election.[154][155]

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia[156]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raphael Warnock 1,617,035 32.90
Republican Kelly Loeffler (incumbent) 1,273,214 25.91
Republican Doug Collins 980,454 19.95
Democratic Deborah Jackson 324,118 6.60
Democratic Matt Lieberman 136,021 2.77
Democratic Tamara Johnson-Shealey 106,767 2.17
Democratic Jamesia James 94,406 1.92
Republican Derrick Grayson 51,592 1.05
Democratic Joy Felicia Slade 44,945 0.91
Republican Annette Davis Jackson 44,335 0.90
Republican Kandiss Taylor 40,349 0.82
Republican Wayne Johnson (withdrawn) 36,176 0.74
Libertarian Brian Slowinski 35,431 0.72
Democratic Richard Dien Winfield 28,687 0.58
Democratic Ed Tarver 26,333 0.54
Independent Allen Buckley 17,954 0.37
Green John Fortuin 15,293 0.31
Independent Al Bartell 14,640 0.30
Independent Valencia Stovall 13,318 0.27
Independent Michael Todd Greene 13,293 0.27
Total votes 4,914,361 100.0

Runoff

The runoff election for Isakson's former seat was on January 5, 2021. The runoff election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by Republican David Perdue was also decided in a January 5 runoff. Before the Georgia runoffs in the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus held 48.[157] Warnock declared victory on January 6, 2021.[158] If Democrats won the other Georgia runoff held on January 5, their caucus would gain control of the Senate, as the resultant 50–50 tie would be broken by Democratic vice president-elect Kamala Harris. If they lost the second race, Republicans would retain control.[159] The high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide.[160][161][162] They were the third and fourth Senate runoff elections held in Georgia since runoffs were first mandated in 1964, after runoffs in 1992[citation needed] and 2008.[163] It was also the third time that both of Georgia's Senate seats have been up for election at the same time, following double-barrel elections in 1914 and 1932.[citation needed] The Associated Press and other major news outlets called the race for Warnock in the early morning hours of January 6.[164] His win was attributed to heavy black voter turnout.[165]

The deadline for registration for the runoff election was December 7.[166] Absentee ballots for the runoff were sent out beginning on November 18, and in-person voting began on December 14.[167][168]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kelly
Loeffler
Republican 		Raphael
Warnock
Democratic 		Undecided
[bf] 		Margin
270 To Win December 16 – January 3, 2020 January 4, 2021 47.4% 50.2% 2.4% Warnock +2.8
RealClearPolitics December 14, 2020 – January 4, 2021 January 5, 2021 48.8% 49.3% 1.9% Warnock +0.5
538 November 9 – January 4, 2021 January 4, 2021 47.2% 49.4% 2.2% Warnock +2.2
Average 47.8% 49.6% 2.2% Warnock +1.8
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kelly
Loeffler (R) 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group January 2–4, 2021 1,056 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 48% – 2%
AtlasIntel January 2–4, 2021 857 (LV) ± 3% 47% 51% – 2%
Insider Advantage January 3, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 49% – 2%
National Research Inc January 2–3, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 46% – 9%
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 550 (LV) ± 4% 49% 48% – 3%
Targoz Market Research December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 713 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 51% – 0%
1,342 (RV) 48% 49% – 3%
AtlasIntel December 25, 2020 – January 1, 2021 1,680 (LV) ± 2% 47% 51% – 2%
Gravis Marketing December 29–30, 2020 1,011 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 49% – 3%
JMC Analytics and Polling December 28–29, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 54% – 1%
Trafalgar Group December 23–27, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% – 1%
Open Model Project December 21–27, 2020 1,405 (LV) ± 4.7% 50% 46% – 4%
InsiderAdvantage December 21–22, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 49% – 4%
Mellman Group December 18–22, 2020 578 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 50% – 3%
Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research December 14–22, 2020 1,027 (LV) ± 4% 42% 43% – 15%
SurveyUSA December 16–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 5.1% 45% 52% – 3%
Trafalgar Group December 14–16, 2020 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 46% – 2%
Emerson College December 14–16, 2020 605 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 48% – 1%
Wick December 10–14, 2020 1,500 (LV) – 50% 48% – 2%
RMG Research December 8–14, 2020 1,417 (LV) ± 2.6% 48% 49% – 4%
InsiderAdvantage December 4–11, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 48% – 3%
Baris/Peach State Battleground Poll December 4–11, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 48% – 9%
Trafalgar Group December 8–10, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% – 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates November 30 – December 4, 2020 1,250 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 47% – 7%
Trafalgar Group December 1–3, 2020 1,083 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% – 5%
SurveyUSA November 27–30, 2020 583 (LV) ± 5.2% 45% 52% – 2%
RMG Research November 19–24, 2020 1,377 (LV) ± 2.6% 46% 48% – 6%
Data for Progress November 15–20, 2020 1,476 (LV) ± 2.6% 47% 50% – 4%
InsiderAdvantage November 16, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% – 3%
VCreek/AMG (R)[N] November 10, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 50% 46% – 5%
Remington Research Group November 8–9, 2020 1,450 (LV) ± 2.6% 49% 48% – 3%
Following the first round of the special election on November 3, 2020, Warnock and Loeffler advanced to the runoff election as the top two candidates.
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 51% – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.4% 37% 51% 9%[bg] 2%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 47% – 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 45% – 14%[bh]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 52% 0%[bi] 4%
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 44% – 16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 49% 8%[bj] 4%
Gravis Marketing (R)[I] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[J] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 43% – 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 45% 18%[bk] 6%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 41% – 19%
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 38% – 24%
Hypothetical polling
Loeffler vs. Collins
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kelly
Loeffler 		Doug
Collins 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing (R)[I] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 28% 34% 37%
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[bl] — 16% 56% 27%
Loeffler vs. Lieberman
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kelly
Loeffler (R) 		Matt
Lieberman (D) 		Other Undecided
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 41% – 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 39% 17%[bm] 5%
Gravis Marketing (R)[I] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% – 15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 44% 18%[bn] 6%
Loeffler vs. Tarver
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kelly
Loeffler (R) 		Ed
Tarver (D) 		Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 43% 20%[bo] 6%
Collins vs. Lieberman
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Collins (R) 		Matt
Lieberman (D) 		Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 38% 13%[bp] 5%
Gravis Marketing (R)[I] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 37% – 16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 44% 7%[bq] 5%
Collins vs. Tarver
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Collins (R) 		Ed
Tarver (D) 		Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 42% 8%[br] 5%
Collins vs. Warnock
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Collins (R) 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Other Undecided
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 52% – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.3% 42% 51% 5%[bs] 2%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 48% – 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 45% – 14%[bt]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 54% 0%[bu] 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% 4%[bv] 4%
Gravis Marketing (R)[I] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 38% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[J] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 41% – 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45% 6%[bw] 5%
The Progress Campaign (D) May 6–15, 2020 2,893 (LV) ± 2.0% 43% 41% – 16%[bx]
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 36% – 15%
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 39% – 20%
Loeffler vs. Broun
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kelly
Loeffler 		Paul
Broun 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[by] — 27% 14% 59%
Collins vs. Abrams
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[bz] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Collins (R) 		Stacey
Abrams (D) 		Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D)[2] March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 47% 10%
Loeffler vs. generic opponent
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kelly
Loeffler 		Someone else Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[ca] — 26% 30% 44%
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Quinnipiac University September 23–27, 2020 1,125 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 49% 3%

Results

2021 United States Senate special election in Georgia runoff
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Raphael Warnock
Republican Kelly Loeffler (incumbent)
Total votes
Democratic gain from Republican

Election-related lawsuits

Republicans filed two federal and one state lawsuit in December to restrict the January 5 vote. On December 17, Judge Eleanor Louise Ross found that plaintiffs lacked standing based on possible future harm to toss out a consent decree regarding signatures on absentee ballot applications. Judge James Randal Hall threw out another case which tried to block the use of drop boxes for absentee ballots. A third lawsuit, to restrict the use of drop boxes, was heard in state court on December 24.[169][citation needed]

On December 18, a federal judge threw out a Republican lawsuit alleging that out-of-state residents were voting in the runoff election, as Republican attorney Bill Price has recommended.[170] Another lawsuit was filed against the use of voting machines manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems, alleging that election officials are handling mail-in absentee ballots improperly and illegally.[171]

Judge Leslie Abrams Gardner, sister of Democratic politician Stacey Abrams, of the United States District Court for the Middle District of Georgia rejected the attempted purge of 4,000 voters in Muscogee County and Ben Hill County, Georgia on December 29. The ruling means the voters will be able to participate in the January 5 runoff election.[172] The ruling was amended to allow provisional voting to prevent election-day challenges.[173]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  2. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Warnock's campaign.
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Matt Lieberman's campaign
  6. ^ This poll's sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  7. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Internal poll for Collins
  9. ^ a b c d e f Poll is sponsored by OANN, a far-right television news channel.
  10. ^ a b c This poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling.
  11. ^ Steve Phillips, who sponsored this poll, is a senior fellow at the Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress
  12. ^ Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus
  13. ^ Internal poll for Loeffler
  14. ^ Americas PAC exclusively supports Republican candidates
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Slowinski (L) with 1%
  3. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  4. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  6. ^ Slowinski (L) with 2%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  8. ^ "Other candidate" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%; "No one" with 1%
  9. ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  10. ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other Candidate" with 2%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  14. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  15. ^ Includes "Refused"
  16. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  17. ^ Bartell (I), Did not vote, Johnson (R), Johnson-Shealey (D) and "Someone else" with 2%; Dien Winfield (D) with 1%
  18. ^ Includes "Refused"
  19. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  20. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  21. ^ Includes Undecided
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  23. ^ Fortuin (G), Johnson-Shealey (D) and Taylor (R) with 1%; Bartell (I), Slade (D) and Stovall (I) with 0%; Buckley (I), Grayson (R), Greene (I), Jackson (R), James (D), Slowinski (L) and Winfield (D) with no voters
  24. ^ Slowinski (L) with 2%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  25. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  26. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  27. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  28. ^ "Other Democratic Candidate" with 2%; "Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; "Other Republican Candidate" with 0%
  29. ^ "Other candidate" and Slowinski (L) with 3%; "No one" with 0%
  30. ^ Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other" with 2%
  31. ^ Slowinski (L) and "Other" with 2%
  32. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  33. ^ Includes "Refused"
  34. ^ Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  35. ^ "Other Democratic Candidate" with 3%; "Another Third Party/Write-in" and "Other Republican Candidate" with 1%
  36. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  37. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  38. ^ Johnson-Shealey (D) with 5%; Bartell (I), Dien Winfield (D) and Johnson (R) with 2%; "One of the other candidates" and would not vote with 1%
  39. ^ Slowinski (L) with 5%; Johnson (R) and would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate/still undecided" with 3%; Winfield (D) with 2%
  40. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  41. ^ "Third party candidate" with 1%
  42. ^ "Other candidate" with 5%; Slowinski (L) with 3%
  43. ^ "Other" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%
  44. ^ "Other" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%
  45. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  46. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  47. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  48. ^ All other candidates with 5% or less
  49. ^ "Another candidate who qualified to run but isn't listed" with 2%
  50. ^ Bartell (I) with 2%; Slowinski (L) with 1%; "someone else" with 1%
  51. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  52. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  53. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  54. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  55. ^ Johnson (R) with 4%; Winfield (D) with 3%; Bartell (I) with 2%; "refused" with 0%
  56. ^ Democratic candidates have 31% of the vote combined
  57. ^ Bartell with 5%; Johnson (R) with 2%
  58. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  59. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  60. ^ Includes "Refused"
  61. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  62. ^ "Someone else" with 8%
  63. ^ "Someone else" with 18%
  64. ^ Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  65. ^ "Someone else" with 17%
  66. ^ "Someone else" with 18%
  67. ^ "Someone else" with 20%
  68. ^ "Someone else" with 13%
  69. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  70. ^ "Someone else" with 8%
  71. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  72. ^ Includes "Refused"
  73. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  74. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  75. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  76. ^ Listed as "other/undecided"
  77. ^ Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  78. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  79. ^ Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election

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Further reading

External links

Official campaign websites
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