2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee
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| Elections in Tennessee |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[3] Tennessee voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]
Trump won Tennessee with 60.66% of the vote, almost tied with his 60.72% vote share in 2016. Despite this, Biden got 37.45% of the vote, three points better than Hillary Clinton. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. Tennessee has not supported a Democrat for president since 1996.
Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Tennessee a safe or likely red state; the state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, including by double-digit margins since 2004.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Democratic primary was on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[5][6] Former vice president Joe Biden easily decided the primary, winning almost 42% of the vote and 36 delegates and benefitting from overwhelming African-American support, as well as rural support among predominantly white working-class voters. Senator Bernie Sanders took 25% of the vote gaining 22 delegates, while former mayor Michael Bloomberg reached the threshold with slightly more than 15% but was not allocated any statewide delegates due to his withdrawal the next day. Otherwise Biden would have had 33 delegates, Sanders 20 delegates and Bloomberg 10 delegates. Senator Elizabeth Warren received a single district delegate.
- 30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%
- 30–40%
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[8] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 215,390 | 41.72 | 36[a] |
| Bernie Sanders | 129,168 | 25.02 | 22[b] |
| Michael Bloomberg | 79,789 | 15.46 | 5[c] |
| Elizabeth Warren | 53,732 | 10.41 | 1 |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[d] | 17,102 | 3.31 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[d] | 10,671 | 2.07 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2,278 | 0.44 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[d] | 1,932 | 0.37 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 1,650 | 0.32 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 1,097 | 0.21 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 953 | 0.18 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 498 | 0.10 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 378 | 0.07 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 239 | 0.05 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 182 | 0.04 | |
| Uncommitted | 1,191 | 0.23 | |
| Total | 516,250 | 100% | 64 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Republican primary was on March 3, 2020. Incumbent President Donald Trump won the state in a landslide getting 96.5% of the vote and all 58 delegates
Former Tennessee senator Bob Corker was considered a potential primary opponent for Trump.[9]
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 384,266 | 96.47 | 58 |
| Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 4,178 | 1.05 | 0 |
| Bill Weld | 3,922 | 0.98 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 5,948 | 1.49 | 0 |
| Total | 398,314 | 100% | 58 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[11] | Safe R | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[12] | Safe R | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe R | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[14] | Safe R | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[15] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[16] | Safe R | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[17] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[18] | Safe R | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[19] | Likely R | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[20] | Safe R | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[21] | Safe R | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[22] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[23] | Safe R | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[24] | Safe R | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[25] | Jan 28, 2020 – May 22, 2020 | September 15, 2020 | 39.0% | 53.0% | 8.0% | Trump +14.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight[26] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 41.4% | 55.1% | 3.5% | Trump +13.7 |
| Average | 40.2% | 54.1% | 5.7% | Trump +13.9 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,342 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 54%[g] | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| Swayable[28] | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 485 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 58% | 41% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,099 (LV) | – | 56% | 42% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,329 (LV) | – | 58% | 41% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,796 (LV) | – | 59% | 40% | – | – | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,481 (LV) | – | 61% | 38% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 1,092 (LV) | – | 61% | 37% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University[29] | May 5–22, 2020 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 42% | – | – | 5%[h] | 2% |
| East Tennessee State University[30] | Apr 22 – May 1, 2020 | 536 (LV) | – | 53% | 36% | – | – | 6% | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon[31] | Jan 28–30, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 39% | – | – | – | 6% |
Former candidates
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Electoral slates
[edit]These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidates win the state:[32]
| Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party |
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party |
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
Kanye West and Michelle Tidball Independent |
Don Blankenship and William Mohr Constitution Party |
Howie Hawkins and Angela Nicole Walker Green Party |
Alyson Kennedy and Malcom Jarrett Socialist Workers Party |
Gloria La Riva and Sunil Freeman Party for Socialism and Liberation |
Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson Alliance Party |
Brian T. Carroll and Amar Patel American Solidarity Party |
Jade Simmons and Claudeliah Roze Independent |
Tom Hoefling and Andy Prior Independent |
R19 Boddie and Eric Stoneham Independent |
Kasey Wells and Rachel Wells Independent |
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Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,852,475 | 60.66% | −0.06% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,143,711 | 37.45% | +2.73% | |
| Independent[i] | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
29,877 | 0.98% | −1.83% | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
10,279 | 0.34% | N/A | |
| Independent[j] | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
5,365 | 0.18% | +0.12% | |
| Independent[k] | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
4,545 | 0.15% | −0.49% | |
| Independent[l] | Alyson Kennedy Malcolm Jarrett |
2,576 | 0.08% | −0.04% | |
| Independent[m] | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
2,301 | 0.08% | N/A | |
| Independent[n] | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
1,860 | 0.06% | −0.10% | |
| American Solidarity | Brian T. Carroll (write-in) Amar Patel (write-in) |
762 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Independent | Jade Simmons (write-in) Claudeliah Roze (write-in) |
68 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Independent | Tom Hoefling (write-in) Andy Prior (write-in) |
31 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Independent | R19 Boddie (write-in) Eric Stoneham (write-in) |
1 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Independent | Kasey Wells (write-in) Rachel Wells (write-in) |
0 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 3,053,851 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Anderson | 23,184 | 65.18% | 11,741 | 33.01% | 645 | 1.81% | 11,443 | 32.17% | 35,570 |
| Bedford | 14,354 | 75.20% | 4,453 | 23.33% | 281 | 1.47% | 9,901 | 51.87% | 19,088 |
| Benton | 5,668 | 78.07% | 1,529 | 21.06% | 63 | 0.87% | 4,139 | 57.01% | 7,260 |
| Bledsoe | 4,725 | 82.06% | 971 | 16.86% | 62 | 1.08% | 3,754 | 65.20% | 5,758 |
| Blount | 47,369 | 71.12% | 17,932 | 26.92% | 1,308 | 1.96% | 29,437 | 44.20% | 66,609 |
| Bradley | 35,204 | 76.76% | 9,851 | 21.48% | 810 | 1.76% | 25,353 | 55.28% | 45,865 |
| Campbell | 12,331 | 82.58% | 2,441 | 16.35% | 161 | 1.07% | 9,890 | 66.23% | 14,933 |
| Cannon | 5,190 | 79.15% | 1,261 | 19.23% | 106 | 1.62% | 3,929 | 59.92% | 6,557 |
| Carroll | 9,205 | 77.32% | 2,559 | 21.50% | 141 | 1.18% | 6,646 | 55.82% | 11,905 |
| Carter | 19,584 | 79.96% | 4,529 | 18.49% | 379 | 1.55% | 15,055 | 61.47% | 24,492 |
| Cheatham | 14,438 | 71.26% | 5,514 | 27.22% | 308 | 1.52% | 8,924 | 44.04% | 20,260 |
| Chester | 5,952 | 78.48% | 1,412 | 18.62% | 220 | 2.90% | 4,540 | 59.86% | 7,584 |
| Claiborne | 10,604 | 81.92% | 2,202 | 17.01% | 139 | 1.07% | 8,402 | 64.91% | 12,945 |
| Clay | 2,733 | 77.95% | 735 | 20.96% | 38 | 1.09% | 1,998 | 56.99% | 3,506 |
| Cocke | 12,162 | 81.85% | 2,533 | 17.05% | 164 | 1.10% | 9,629 | 64.80% | 14,859 |
| Coffee | 17,883 | 73.65% | 5,705 | 23.49% | 694 | 2.86% | 12,178 | 50.16% | 24,282 |
| Crockett | 4,673 | 76.43% | 1,382 | 22.60% | 59 | 0.97% | 3,291 | 53.83% | 6,114 |
| Cumberland | 25,168 | 77.97% | 6,728 | 20.84% | 383 | 1.19% | 18,440 | 57.13% | 32,279 |
| Davidson | 100,218 | 32.36% | 199,703 | 64.49% | 9,737 | 3.15% | −99,485 | −32.13% | 309,658 |
| Decatur | 4,229 | 80.69% | 904 | 17.25% | 108 | 2.06% | 3,325 | 63.44% | 5,241 |
| DeKalb | 6,672 | 78.37% | 1,750 | 20.56% | 91 | 1.07% | 4,922 | 57.81% | 8,513 |
| Dickson | 17,643 | 72.54% | 6,106 | 25.10% | 574 | 2.36% | 11,537 | 47.44% | 24,323 |
| Dyer | 11,768 | 78.04% | 3,158 | 20.94% | 153 | 1.02% | 8,610 | 57.10% | 15,079 |
| Fayette | 15,690 | 68.26% | 7,027 | 30.57% | 267 | 1.17% | 8,663 | 37.69% | 22,984 |
| Fentress | 7,441 | 85.24% | 1,214 | 13.91% | 74 | 0.85% | 6,227 | 71.33% | 8,729 |
| Franklin | 13,987 | 73.11% | 4,864 | 25.42% | 281 | 1.47% | 9,123 | 47.69% | 19,132 |
| Gibson | 16,259 | 72.80% | 5,771 | 25.84% | 305 | 1.36% | 10,488 | 46.96% | 22,335 |
| Giles | 9,784 | 74.10% | 3,298 | 24.98% | 121 | 0.92% | 6,486 | 49.12% | 13,203 |
| Grainger | 8,565 | 84.52% | 1,467 | 14.48% | 102 | 1.00% | 7,098 | 70.04% | 10,134 |
| Greene | 22,259 | 79.25% | 5,199 | 18.51% | 629 | 2.24% | 17,060 | 60.74% | 28,087 |
| Grundy | 4,802 | 82.02% | 988 | 16.87% | 65 | 1.11% | 3,814 | 65.15% | 5,855 |
| Hamblen | 18,811 | 76.37% | 5,500 | 22.33% | 320 | 1.30% | 13,311 | 54.04% | 24,631 |
| Hamilton | 92,108 | 53.83% | 75,522 | 44.14% | 3,483 | 2.03% | 16,586 | 9.69% | 171,113 |
| Hancock | 2,372 | 86.44% | 362 | 13.19% | 10 | 0.37% | 2,010 | 73.25% | 2,744 |
| Hardeman | 5,760 | 57.24% | 4,180 | 41.54% | 123 | 1.22% | 1,580 | 15.70% | 10,063 |
| Hardin | 9,559 | 82.85% | 1,775 | 15.38% | 204 | 1.77% | 7,784 | 67.47% | 11,538 |
| Hawkins | 20,405 | 82.20% | 4,083 | 16.45% | 336 | 1.35% | 16,322 | 65.75% | 24,824 |
| Haywood | 3,343 | 44.94% | 4,012 | 53.93% | 84 | 1.13% | −669 | −8.99% | 7,439 |
| Henderson | 9,797 | 81.51% | 2,092 | 17.40% | 131 | 1.09% | 7,705 | 64.11% | 12,020 |
| Henry | 11,239 | 74.69% | 3,548 | 23.58% | 260 | 1.73% | 7,691 | 51.11% | 15,047 |
| Hickman | 7,577 | 77.06% | 2,130 | 21.66% | 125 | 1.28% | 5,447 | 55.40% | 9,832 |
| Houston | 2,718 | 73.74% | 871 | 23.63% | 97 | 2.63% | 1,847 | 50.11% | 3,686 |
| Humphreys | 6,120 | 74.31% | 2,017 | 24.49% | 99 | 1.20% | 4,103 | 49.82% | 8,236 |
| Jackson | 4,118 | 77.36% | 1,135 | 21.32% | 70 | 1.32% | 2,983 | 56.04% | 5,323 |
| Jefferson | 18,651 | 78.98% | 4,654 | 19.71% | 311 | 1.31% | 13,997 | 59.27% | 23,616 |
| Johnson | 6,468 | 82.91% | 1,246 | 15.97% | 87 | 1.12% | 5,222 | 66.94% | 7,801 |
| Knox | 124,540 | 56.47% | 91,422 | 41.45% | 4,594 | 2.08% | 33,118 | 15.02% | 220,556 |
| Lake | 1,492 | 73.35% | 526 | 25.86% | 16 | 0.79% | 966 | 47.49% | 2,034 |
| Lauderdale | 5,674 | 63.29% | 3,193 | 35.62% | 98 | 1.09% | 2,481 | 27.67% | 8,965 |
| Lawrence | 15,334 | 81.92% | 3,195 | 17.07% | 189 | 1.01% | 12,139 | 64.85% | 18,718 |
| Lewis | 4,474 | 79.76% | 1,072 | 19.11% | 63 | 1.13% | 3,402 | 60.65% | 5,609 |
| Lincoln | 12,281 | 78.68% | 2,919 | 18.70% | 408 | 2.62% | 9,362 | 59.98% | 15,608 |
| Loudon | 21,713 | 73.99% | 6,948 | 23.68% | 686 | 2.33% | 14,765 | 50.31% | 29,347 |
| Macon | 8,096 | 85.34% | 1,307 | 13.78% | 84 | 0.88% | 6,789 | 71.56% | 9,487 |
| Madison | 23,943 | 55.75% | 18,390 | 42.82% | 617 | 1.43% | 5,553 | 12.93% | 42,950 |
| Marion | 9,911 | 74.77% | 3,177 | 23.97% | 168 | 1.26% | 6,734 | 50.80% | 13,256 |
| Marshall | 11,043 | 74.22% | 3,605 | 24.23% | 230 | 1.55% | 7,438 | 49.99% | 14,878 |
| Maury | 31,464 | 67.44% | 14,418 | 30.90% | 775 | 1.66% | 17,046 | 36.54% | 46,657 |
| McMinn | 18,198 | 79.66% | 4,361 | 19.09% | 285 | 1.25% | 13,837 | 60.57% | 22,844 |
| McNairy | 9,093 | 80.65% | 1,943 | 17.23% | 239 | 2.12% | 7,150 | 63.42% | 11,275 |
| Meigs | 4,467 | 80.75% | 1,008 | 18.22% | 57 | 1.03% | 3,459 | 62.53% | 5,532 |
| Monroe | 16,783 | 80.70% | 3,764 | 18.10% | 250 | 1.20% | 13,019 | 62.60% | 20,797 |
| Montgomery | 42,187 | 54.96% | 32,472 | 42.30% | 2,099 | 2.74% | 9,715 | 12.66% | 76,758 |
| Moore | 2,888 | 81.60% | 573 | 16.19% | 78 | 2.21% | 2,315 | 65.41% | 3,539 |
| Morgan | 6,930 | 84.22% | 1,167 | 14.18% | 131 | 1.60% | 5,763 | 70.04% | 8,228 |
| Obion | 10,790 | 79.80% | 2,589 | 19.15% | 142 | 1.05% | 8,201 | 60.65% | 13,521 |
| Overton | 7,918 | 78.89% | 2,033 | 20.26% | 86 | 0.85% | 5,885 | 58.63% | 10,037 |
| Perry | 2,775 | 80.95% | 615 | 17.94% | 38 | 1.11% | 2,160 | 63.01% | 3,428 |
| Pickett | 2,381 | 81.24% | 525 | 17.91% | 25 | 0.85% | 1,856 | 63.33% | 2,931 |
| Polk | 6,792 | 81.24% | 1,492 | 17.85% | 76 | 0.91% | 5,300 | 63.39% | 8,360 |
| Putnam | 23,759 | 70.73% | 9,185 | 27.34% | 649 | 1.93% | 14,574 | 43.39% | 33,593 |
| Rhea | 11,050 | 81.03% | 2,369 | 17.37% | 218 | 1.60% | 8,681 | 63.66% | 13,637 |
| Roane | 19,230 | 74.20% | 6,043 | 23.32% | 644 | 2.48% | 13,187 | 50.88% | 25,917 |
| Robertson | 24,536 | 72.77% | 8,692 | 25.78% | 489 | 1.45% | 15,844 | 46.99% | 33,717 |
| Rutherford | 81,480 | 56.63% | 59,341 | 41.24% | 3,057 | 2.13% | 22,139 | 15.39% | 143,878 |
| Scott | 8,004 | 88.42% | 986 | 10.89% | 62 | 0.69% | 7,018 | 77.53% | 9,052 |
| Sequatchie | 5,855 | 80.74% | 1,298 | 17.90% | 99 | 1.36% | 4,557 | 62.84% | 7,252 |
| Sevier | 33,783 | 77.60% | 8,721 | 20.03% | 1,031 | 2.37% | 25,062 | 57.57% | 43,535 |
| Shelby | 129,815 | 33.98% | 246,105 | 64.42% | 6,135 | 1.60% | −116,290 | −30.44% | 382,055 |
| Smith | 7,136 | 78.84% | 1,802 | 19.91% | 113 | 1.25% | 5,334 | 58.93% | 9,051 |
| Stewart | 4,950 | 78.62% | 1,232 | 19.57% | 114 | 1.81% | 3,718 | 59.05% | 6,296 |
| Sullivan | 55,860 | 75.12% | 17,272 | 23.23% | 1,225 | 1.65% | 38,588 | 51.89% | 74,357 |
| Sumner | 63,454 | 68.50% | 27,680 | 29.88% | 1,496 | 1.62% | 35,774 | 38.62% | 92,630 |
| Tipton | 20,070 | 73.49% | 6,837 | 25.04% | 401 | 1.47% | 13,233 | 48.45% | 27,308 |
| Trousdale | 2,936 | 73.44% | 1,012 | 25.31% | 50 | 1.25% | 1,924 | 48.13% | 3,998 |
| Unicoi | 6,599 | 79.44% | 1,615 | 19.44% | 93 | 1.12% | 4,984 | 60.00% | 8,307 |
| Union | 6,803 | 83.75% | 1,249 | 15.38% | 71 | 0.87% | 5,554 | 68.37% | 8,123 |
| Van Buren | 2,342 | 80.18% | 544 | 18.62% | 35 | 1.20% | 1,798 | 61.56% | 2,921 |
| Warren | 11,850 | 74.02% | 3,924 | 24.51% | 235 | 1.47% | 7,926 | 49.51% | 16,009 |
| Washington | 40,444 | 67.18% | 18,638 | 30.96% | 1,121 | 1.86% | 21,806 | 36.22% | 60,203 |
| Wayne | 5,795 | 86.89% | 820 | 12.30% | 54 | 0.81% | 4,975 | 74.59% | 6,669 |
| Weakley | 10,396 | 75.69% | 3,020 | 21.99% | 319 | 2.32% | 7,376 | 53.70% | 13,735 |
| White | 9,606 | 80.76% | 2,143 | 18.02% | 146 | 1.22% | 7,463 | 62.74% | 11,895 |
| Williamson | 86,469 | 62.20% | 50,161 | 36.08% | 2,386 | 1.72% | 36,308 | 26.12% | 139,016 |
| Wilson | 50,296 | 67.67% | 22,254 | 29.94% | 1,780 | 2.39% | 28,042 | 37.73% | 74,330 |
| Totals | 1,852,475 | 60.66% | 1,143,711 | 37.45% | 57,665 | 1.89% | 708,764 | 23.21% | 3,053,851 |
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[34]
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 76.18% | 22.12% | Phil Roe |
| Diana Harshbarger | |||
| 2nd | 63.59% | 34.50% | Tim Burchett |
| 3rd | 65.31% | 32.93% | Chuck Fleischmann |
| 4th | 67.54% | 30.65% | Scott DesJarlais |
| 5th | 36.74% | 60.28% | Jim Cooper |
| 6th | 72.69% | 25.60% | John W. Rose |
| 7th | 66.88% | 31.33% | Mark E. Green |
| 8th | 65.51% | 33.09% | David Kustoff |
| 9th | 20.1% | 78.29% | Steve Cohen |
By Grand Division
[edit]
Trump: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
Trump won all three of Tennessee's Grand Divisions—West, Middle, and East Tennessee. Middle and East Tennessee are solidly Republican, while West Tennessee, owing to its high Black population, was formerly loyal to the Democrats. It has become competitive for Republicans in recent elections. In 2016, Trump had won it with 48.93% to Clinton's 47.82%. Democrats had previously won West Tennessee in 2004, 2008, and 2012.[35]
| Grand Division | Trump | Biden |
|---|---|---|
| West | 49.43% | 49.06% |
| Middle | 59.20% | 38.67% |
| East | 68.97% | 29.27% |
Analysis
[edit]A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.
Winning the state by 708,764 votes, Tennessee gave Trump his largest margin of victory by the number of votes nationally. This exceeded the 631,221-vote margin by which he won in Texas, marking the first time since 1988 (when Florida provided the largest margin of victory) where Texas did not provide the Republican presidential nominee with his widest margin of votes for a statewide victory. Additionally, this is the second consecutive election in which a nominee carried over 60% of Tennessee's vote.
Biden won the same counties as Clinton did: urban Shelby and Davidson counties—anchored by Memphis and Nashville, respectively—as well as majority-Black Haywood County. In addition, Trump performed somewhat better than polls anticipated, as they had Trump leading Biden by 55%–41%.[36] Biden also became the first Democrat to win the presidency without Hardeman County.[37]
Despite this, Biden was able to improve his support in the Nashville metropolitan area, gaining 64.5% of the vote in Davidson County, the best Democratic performance in the county since FDR won 72.1% of the vote in 1944. At the same time, Biden also made gains in the Nashville suburban counties of Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Cheatham, performing considerably better than Hillary Clinton in 2016. For example, Biden lost Rutherford County, anchored by Murfreesboro, only by 15.4%, much lower than Clinton's 25.9-point loss in 2016. Additionally, he narrowed Trump's margins in Hamilton County—anchored by Chattanooga, the state's fourth largest city—only losing it by 9.7 points, the best Democratic performance there since Bill Clinton lost the county by 6.5% in 1996, and in Knox County—anchored by Knoxville, the state's third largest city—from a loss of 23.73% in 2016 to 15.02% in 2020. Statewide, Biden won 44.1% of the popular vote, the best Democratic percentage since Carter's 48% in 1976, consequently losing by 2.8 points. This is the first time a Democrat has even garnered 40% of the vote in Rutherford County since 2000, when favorite son Al Gore lost the county by 9.7 points while at the same time losing both his home state and the election.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Tennessee came from a 69% showing among Southern whites, who made up 84% of the electorate. Similarly, Trump carried white born-again/Evangelical Christians by 86%–12%. The state of Tennessee is entirely covered in the Bible Belt. The only strength Biden showed was with 88% of African-American voters. 65% of voters opposed removing Confederate statues from public places in Tennessee, and these voters backed Trump by 83%–15%.[38]
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Tennessee
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Tennessee elections
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ 33 delegates, if Bloomberg's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
- ^ 20 delegates, if Bloomberg's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
- ^ 10 delegates, if Bloomberg's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary, after early voting started.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; "refused" with 1%
- ^ Jorgensen and Cohen were nominated by the Libertarian Party of Tennessee but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
- ^ Blankenship and Mohr were nominated by the Constitution Party of Tennessee but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
- ^ Hawkins and Walker were nominated by the Green Party of Tennessee but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
- ^ Kennedy and Jarrett were nominated by the Socialist Workers Party but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
- ^ La Riva and Freeman were nominated by the Party for Socialism and Liberation but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
- ^ De La Fuente and Richardson were nominated by the Alliance Party but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
References
[edit]- ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2020". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
- ^ "Tennessee Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Herndon, Astead W.; Burns, Alexander (December 31, 2018). "Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "March 3, 2020 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 3, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Tennessee Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
- ^ Mattise, Jonathan (December 20, 2018). "Trump foil, retiring GOP Sen. Corker: 'no idea' what's next". Associated Press. Retrieved December 26, 2018.
- ^ "March 3, 2020 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 3, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Tennessee: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com.
- ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Tennessee : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
- ^ "Swayable". Archived from the original on November 27, 2020.
- ^ "SSRS/Vanderbilt University" (PDF).
- ^ "East Tennessee State University" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 19, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e "Mason-Dixon" (PDF).
- ^ State of Tennessee (December 2, 2020). "Tennessee Certificate of Ascertainment 2020" (PDF). National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved July 17, 2021.
- ^ State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 3, 2020, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2020. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
- ^ "DRA 2020 TN 2020 CD results". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved December 12, 2024.
- ^ "2020 Tennessee presidential election by Grand division". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
- ^ Mehta, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Dhrumil (June 28, 2018). "Tennessee President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Leip, Dave. "Tennessee Election Results". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved February 21, 2023.
- ^ "Tennessee Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Tennessee", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Tennessee: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Tennessee". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Tennessee at Ballotpedia
