Opinion polling for the 2014 Indian general election
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In the run up to the Indian general election, 2014, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2013 to April 2014. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.
Background
Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]
Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]
Post-poll surveys, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.[3] According to a study, post-poll surveys in the past have consistently overestimated BJP seats.[4]
Opinion polls
Seats
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | NDA | TF | Other | ||||
| Jan–Mar 2013 | [5] | Times Now-CVoter | No sample size provided | 128 | 184 | - | - |
| Apr–May 2013 | [6] | Headlines Today-CVoter | 120,000 | 209 (without Modi) 155(with Modi) |
179(without Modi) 220 (with Modi) |
- | - |
| May 2013 | [7] | ABP News-Nielsen | 33,408 | 136 | 206 | - | - |
| Jul 2013 | [8] | The Week - Hansa Research | No sample size provided | 184 | 197 | - | 162 |
| Jul 2013 | [9] | CNN-IBN and The Hindu by CSDS | 19,062[10] | 149-157 | 172-180 | - | 208-224 |
| Jul 2013 | [11] | Times Now-India Today-CVoter | 36,914 | 134 (INC 119) | 156 (BJP 131) | - | - |
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 117 (INC 102) | 186 (BJP 162) | - | 240 |
| Dec 2013–Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 103 (INC 91) | 212 (BJP 188) | - | 228 |
| Dec 2013–Jan 2014 | [14] | ABP News-Nielsen | 64,006[15] | 101 (INC 81) | 226 (BJP 210) | - | 216 |
| Jan 2014 | [16] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 18,591[17] | 107 - 127 (INC 92 - 108) |
211 - 231 (BJP 192 - 210) |
- | 205 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000[19] | 101 (INC 89) | 227 (BJP 202) | - | 215 |
| Feb 2014 | [15] | ABP News-Nielsen | 29,000 | 92 | 236 | 29 | 186 |
| Feb 2014 | [20] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 29,000 | 119 - 139 (INC 94 - 110) |
212 - 232 (BJP 193 - 213) |
105 - 193 | |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 128 | 230 | 55 | 130 |
| March 2014 | [22] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 20,957 | 111-123 | 234-246 | 174-198 | |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000[24] | 111 (INC 92) | 275 (BJP 226) | 157 | |
Votes
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | NDA | Left | Other | ||||
| December 2013–January 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 23% | 34% | - | 43% |
| December 2013–January 2014 | [14] | ABP News-Nielsen | 64,006[15] | 23% | 31% | 5% | 41% |
| January 2014 | [16] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 18,591[17] | 36% (INC 27%) | 28% (BJP 34%) | 4% | 32% |
| February 2014 | [15] | ABP News-Nielsen | 20 | 46 | 5% | 40% | |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 25.6% | 34.5% | 39.9% | |
Graphs
100
200
300
400
500
600
ABP News-Jan
CNN-IBN-Jan
Times Now-Feb
ABP News-Feb
CNN-IBN-Feb
NDTV-March
CNN-IBN-March
NDTV-April
- NDA
- UPA
- Others
50
100
150
200
250
300
ABP News-Jan
CNN-IBN-Jan
Times Now-Feb
ABP News-Feb
CNN-IBN-Feb
NDTV-March
CNN-IBN-March
NDTV-April
- NDA
- UPA
- Others
State Wise Opinion Polling
Andhra Pradesh (42)
NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Andhra Pradesh.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | TDP | YSR Congress | TRS | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 7 | - | 8 | 13 | 13 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 7 | - | 8 | 13 | 13 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research[25] | 46,571 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 11 | |
| March–April 2014 | [26] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1308 | 4 − 8 | 13 - 19 | 9 - 15 | 4 - 8 | |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research[27] | 24,000 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 8 | |
| April 4 - April 12, 2014 | [28] | India Today-Cicero | 1358 | 4 - 6 | 17 - 21 | 7 - 11 | 6 - 10 | |
Arunachal Pradesh (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 1 |
Assam (14)
NDTV- Hansa Research March 2014 opinion poll for Assam
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AGP | AUDF | BPF | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research[29] | 46,571 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Bihar (40)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC-RJD-NCP | BJP-LJP | JD(U) | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 1 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 13 | 22 | 4 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 13 | 22 | 5 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 11 | 23 | 5 | 1 |
| March–April 2014 | [30] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1557 | 7 - 13 | 21 - 29 | 2 - 5 | 0 - 3 |
| March 30 - April 2, 2014 | [31] | India Today-Cicero | 1498 | 15 - 19 | 20 - 24 | 0 - 2 | 0 - 1 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 12 | 24 | 4 | 0 |
Chhattisgarh (11)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Chattisgarh
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 3 | 8 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 3 | 8 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 2 | 9 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 3 | 8 |
Goa (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 1 |
Gujarat (26)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Gujarat.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [32] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 917 | 0 - 4 | 20 - 26 | 0 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
Haryana (10)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP-HJC | INLD | AAP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Himachal Pradesh (4)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 3 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 3 |
Jammu and Kashmir (6)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | PDP | NC | Others (IND. & People's Conference) | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Jharkhand (14)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Jharkhand.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | JMM | JVM | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Karnataka (28)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Karnataka.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | JD(S) | AAP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [33] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 825 | 12 - 18 | 7 - 13 | 1 - 4 (Including Others) |
0 | 1 - 4 (Including JD(S)) |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kerala (20)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Kerala.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | LDF | INC | KC(M) | IUML | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter[34] | 21,792 | - | 11 | 6 | - | - |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 0 | 13 | 7 (As UDF) | ||
| March–April 2014 | [35] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 607 | 0 | 4 - 8 | 11 - 17 (As UDF) | ||
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 0 | 12 | 8 (As UDF) | ||
Madhya Pradesh (29)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Madhya Pradesh.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | BSP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [36] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1121 | 1 - 5 | 24 - 28 | 0 | 0 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Maharashtra (48)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | NCP | BJP[37] | SS | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 2 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 6 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 3 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 12 | 33 | 3 | ||
| March 2014 | [38] | ABP News-Nielsen | Not Available | 8 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 4 |
| March–April 2014 | [39] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1662 | 16 - 22 | 24 - 30 | 1 - 3 | ||
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 9 | 37 | 2 | ||
Manipur (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Meghalaya (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | NPP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 1 |
Mizoram (1)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 0 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 0 |
Nagaland (1)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPF | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 0 |
Odisha (21)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Odisha
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | BJD | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [40] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 796 | 0 - 4 | 3 - 7 | 10 - 16 | 0 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
Punjab (13)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Punjab.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | SAD | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 8 | 5 | |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 6 | 7 | |
Rajasthan (25)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Rajasthan.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| March–April 2014 | [41] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 837 | 0 - 2 | 21 - 25 | 0 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
Sikkim (1)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | SDF | ||||
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Tamil Nadu (39)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Tamil Nadu.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AIADMK | DMK | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 5 | 5 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 0 | - | 29 | 5 | 5 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 5 | 6 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 10 | 2 |
| March–April 2014 | [42] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1460 | 0 | 6 - 10 (In alliance) |
15 - 21 | 10 - 16 (In alliance) |
0 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 0 | 3 (In alliance) |
22 | 14 (In alliance) |
0 |
| April 4 - April 12, 2014 | [28] | India Today-Cicero | 1358 | 0 | 4 - 6 (In alliance) |
20 - 24 | 9 - 13 (In alliance) |
0 - 2 |
Tripura (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | CPI(M) | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Uttar Pradesh (80)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | SP | BSP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 31 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 24 | 2 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [43] | ABP News-Nielsen | 64,006 | 12 | 35 | 14 | 15 | 4 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [44] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 21 | 0 |
| Feb 2014 | [45] | ABP News-Nielsen | 29,000 | 11 | 40 | 13 | 14 | 2 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 12 | 40 | 13 | 15 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [46] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 2633 | 4 - 8 |
42 - 50 |
11 - 17 | 10 - 16 | 0 - 2 |
| March 30 - April 3, 2014 | [31] | India Today-Cicero | 1498 | 6 - 10 |
42 - 50 |
15 - 21 | 9 - 13 | 0 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 5 | 51 | 14 | 10 | 0 |
Uttarakhand (5)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 0 | 5 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 0 | 5 |
West Bengal (42)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for West Bengal
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AITC | Left Front | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [13] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 14 | 1 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 9 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [47] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1440 | 4 - 7 | 0 - 1 | 23 - 29 | 7 - 13 | 0 |
| April 1-April 5, 2014 | [48] | India Today-Cicero | 1706 | 6 - 10 | 0 - 3 | 23 - 27 | 7 - 11 | 0 - 1 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 8 | 0 |
Union Territories
NCT of Delhi (7)
Latest NDTV- Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Delhi.
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AAP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| March 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| March–April 2014 | [49] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 891 | 0 - 1 | 3 - 4 | 2 - 3 |
| 28-29 March 2014 | [50] | India Today- Cicero | 1,188 | 0 - 2 | 5 - 7 | 1 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [23] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
Other Union Territories (6)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AAP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [12] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [18] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Other findings
The eight largest metropolises in India are considered important because they constitute 31 seats, larger than some regions altogether. In the previous election, the INC-led UPA won 24 of these seats, but the UPA is trailing in these areas.[51] A NDTV opinion poll in Uttar Pradesh indicated that the BJP would win its largest share of seats in the region by winning 40 of the 80 seats. BSP would get 15 seats, SP would get 13 seats, INC-RLD will get 12 seats, amongst its losses will Ajit Singh. The poll also asked those in Gujarat if Modi should run from U.P., of which 67% responded negatively, while those in U.P. said by 62% that they would like to see him run from there.[52] A survey of first time voters suggested Modi was the most popular prime ministerial candidate and Mamata Banerjee was the most popular outside the BJP or INC.[53] Latest survey by CNN-IBN-Lokniti predicts the decline (by 5%) in popularity of Narendra Modi as PM candidate.[54]
Exit Polls
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Constituencies polled |
bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | NDA | TF | Other | ||||
| April/May 2014 (post-poll) |
[55] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 287[56] | 92-102 (INC 72-82) |
270-282 (BJP 230-242) |
125-171 | |
| April/May 2014 (exit+post-poll) |
[57] | India Today – Cicero | 543[58] | 110-120 | 261-283 | 150-162 | |
| April/May 2014 (exit+post-poll) |
[57][59] | News 24-Today's Chanakya | 479[60] | 61-79 (INC 48-66) |
326-354 (BJP 277-305) |
122-144 | |
Controversy
Polling agencies have been criticised by some political parties, intellectuals and political scholars.[why?][67] One of the limitations in making predictions is the modeling the relationship between vote share and the number of seats.[68]
A controversy erupted when News Express released footage of a sting operation named Operation Prime Minister which revealed that a number of polling agencies were involved in malpractices such as juggling with the statistics and results. CVoter, the polling agency exposed in this sting operation lost its contract with the India Today group.[69]
References
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External links
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