2016 United States presidential election
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2016 U.S. presidential election | |
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The United States presidential election of 2016 is expected to be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. It will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters in the election will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new President and Vice President of the United States. The incumbent president, Barack Obama, is ineligible to be elected to a third term due to term limits in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution.
Background
Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf.
Democrat Barack Obama, a former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is due to complete his second and final term in office on January 20, 2017. In the United States presidential election, 2008, Obama defeated Republican Senator John McCain from Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote.[1][2] He was reelected in the 2012 election, defeating former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 62% of the electoral vote.[3] Obama is not eligible to seek reelection due to restrictions set by the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. During his second term, President Obama's approval ratings have been listed by Gallup as between 40 and 50 percent, with Obama seeing a steady increase in approval and decrease in disapproval since September 2014.[4] The increase is uncommon among Presidents in their second terms. His approval reading is widely seen as an indicator for how well the Democratic Party will do in the 2016 election.[5][6]
In the United States elections for the Senate and House in 2012, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate, leading to a more divided Congress.[2] Subsequently, in the 2014 midterm elections, the Republicans won a majority of seats in both Houses of Congress, increasing their majority in the House and gaining a majority in the Senate.[7]
Declared and potential candidates
Democratic Party
Declared
Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination the Democratic Party; filed as a Democratic presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.
Candidates featured in major polls
The candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls.
- Hillary Rodham Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State 2009–2013; U.S. Senator from New York 2001–2009; presidential candidate in 2008; First Lady of the United States 1993–2001[8][9][10]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; Mayor of Burlington 1981–1989[11][12]
Other candidates
- Jeff Boss, 9/11 Truther and perennial candidate from New Jersey[13][14]
- Robby Wells, Reform Party and Constitution Party presidential candidate in 2012 from North Carolina[15][16][17]
Announcement impending
The individuals listed below have scheduled events during which they are each expected to make an announcement regarding a potential presidential bid.
- Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland 2007–2015; Mayor of Baltimore 1999–2007; announcement expected May 30[18][19]
Formally exploring a candidacy
The individuals listed below have been identified by reliable media sources as potential candidates for president in 2016. Those listed under "Formally exploring a candidacy" have taken formal action(s) – such as the formation of an exploratory committee, political action committee (PAC), or a 527 organization – to build the groundwork for a possible presidential campaign. As of May 2015[update], all others have been the focus of media speculation in reliable secondary sources within the past three months. They are listed alphabetically by surname.
- Lincoln Chafee, Independent-turned-Democratic Governor of Rhode Island 2011–2015; Republican U.S. Senator from Rhode Island, 1999–2007; formed an exploratory committee[20][21][22]
- Jim Webb, U.S. Senator from Virginia 2007–2013; U.S. Secretary of the Navy 1987–1988; formed an exploratory committee[23][24][25]
Publicly expressed interest
- Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States since 2009; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; presidential candidate in 1988 and 2008[26][27][28]
Other potential candidates
- Al Gore, Vice President of the United States 1993–2001; U.S. Senator from Tennessee 1985–1993; presidential candidate in 1988 and nominee in 2000[29][30]
- Dannel Malloy, Governor of Connecticut since 2011; Mayor of Stamford 1995–2011[31][32]
- Jack Markell, Governor of Delaware since 2009; Treasurer of Delaware 1999–2009[33][34]
- Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator from Connecticut since 2013; U.S. Representative from Connecticut 2007–2013[34][35]
Republican Party
Declared
Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party; filed as a Republican presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.
Candidates featured in major polls
Candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls.
- Ben Carson, former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery for Johns Hopkins Hospital[36][37][38]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; Solicitor General of Texas 2003–2008[39][40][41]
- Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO 1999–2005, California Senate nominee in 2010[42][43]
- Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas 1996–2007[44][45]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011[46][47][48]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; Speaker of the Florida House 2007–2009[49][50][51]
Other candidates
- Mark Everson, former Commissioner of Internal Revenue, former President of the American Red Cross from Mississippi[52][53]
- Jack Fellure, retired engineer from West Virginia; 2012 Prohibition Party presidential nominee[54]
Announcements impending
The individuals listed below have scheduled events during which they are each expected to make an announcement regarding a potential presidential bid.
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina since 2003; U.S. Representative from South Carolina 1995–2003; announcement expected on June 1[55]
- George Pataki, Governor of New York 1995-2006; announcement expected on May 28[56]
- Rick Perry, Governor of Texas 2000–2015 Lieutenant Governor of Texas 1999–2000; presidential candidate in 2012; announcement expected on June 4[57]
- Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania 1995–2007; U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania 1991–1995; presidential candidate in 2012; announcement expected on May 27[58]
Formally exploring a candidacy
- Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida 1999–2007; formed a PAC[59][60][61]
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey since 2010; formed a PAC[62][63][64]
- Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana since 2008; U.S. Representative from Louisiana 2005–2008; formed an exploratory committee[65]
- John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative from Ohio 1983–2001; formed a 527 organization[66][67][68][69]
- Donald Trump, business magnate and television personality from New York; formed an exploratory committee[70][71][72]
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin since 2011; formed a 527 organization[59][73][74]
Publicly expressed interest
- Bob Ehrlich, Governor of Maryland 2003–2007; U.S. Representative from Maryland 1995–2003[75][76][77]
- Jim Gilmore, Governor of Virginia 1998–2002; Chairman of the Republican National Committee 2001–2002; presidential candidate in 2008[78][79]
- Peter King, U.S. Representative from New York since 1993[76]
Independent and third party candidates
Declared
Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a minor party, or as an independent candidate; filed as a minor party or non-affiliated candidate with FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.
- Roseanne Barr, entertainer from Hawaii, Peace and Freedom Party[80]
- Zoltan Istvan, futurist, writer, transhumanist philosopher from California; founder of the Transhumanist Party[81][82]
- Terry Jones, pastor for Dove World Outreach Center from Florida; presidential candidate in 2012, independent candidate[83]
- Vermin Supreme, performance artist and perennial candidate from Massachusetts[84]
- Juaquin James Malphurs (Waka Flocka Flame), rap artist from Georgia[85] (Constitutionally ineligible – under age 35)
Constitution Party
Ballot Access: Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Wisconsin, Wyoming – (115 Electoral Votes)[86]
- Steve Stockman, U.S. Representative from Texas 1995–1997, 2013–2015; candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[87][88]
Green Party
Ballot Access: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin – (296 Electoral Votes)[86][89]
Formally exploring a candidacy
- Darryl Cherney, musician and environmental activist from California; formed an exploratory committee[90]
- Jill Stein, 2012 presidential nominee from Massachusetts; formed an exploratory committee[91]
Publicly expressed interest
- Rosa Clemente, activist, journalist, and 2008 Green Party vice presidential nominee from New York.[92][93]
Libertarian Party
Ballot Access: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming – (366 Electoral Votes)[86]
Publicly expressed interest
- Gary Johnson, Governor of New Mexico 1995–2003; presidential nominee in 2012[94][95][96]
- Jesse Ventura, Governor of Minnesota 1999–2003[96][97]
Potential battleground states
In every state except Maine and Nebraska, the winner of the popular vote in the state wins all of the electoral votes of the state (although state legislatures can, by law, change how votes are allocated).[98] Recent presidential campaigns have generally focused their resources on a relatively small number of competitive states.[99][100] Potential battleground states include Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.[101] Democrats have discussed targeting Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as potentially competitive states.[101] Meanwhile, Republicans may also target Minnesota and New Jersey.[102] Other states may also become competitive if the close races of 2016 differ from the close races of the 2012 election, or if 2016 becomes a landslide election. Both major parties might decide to target the home states of their nominees or that of their running mates if they are from a swing state or have high favorability in the state or region.
Party conventions
- Libertarian Party
- Republican Party
- Democratic Party
- July 25–28, 2016: Democratic National Convention to be held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.[107]
Debates
On April 1, 2015, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that each of the following 16 locations are under consideration to host one of the three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate:[108]
- Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee
- Birmingham, Alabama
- Dominican University of California in San Rafael, California
- Eastern Kentucky University in Richmond, Kentucky
- Georgia College & State University in Milledgeville, Georgia
- Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York
- Jacksonville University in Jacksonville, Florida
- Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia
- State University of New York Rockland Community College in Suffern, New York
- University of Nevada, Las Vegas
- Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri
- West Virginia University and West Virginia State University in Charleston, West Virginia
- Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio
- Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas
- Houston Community College in Houston, Texas
- McAllen, Texas
The three locations which will host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, are to be announced by the CPD in the fall of 2015.[108][109]
Polling
- General election polling
- Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016
- Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016
- Democratic primary polling
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Democratic Party 2016 presidential primaries
- Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
- Republican primary polling
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries
- Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2016
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2016
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2016
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