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2024 United Kingdom general election

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Next United Kingdom general election
United Kingdom
← 2019 No later than 28 January 2025[1]
All 650 seats in the House of Commons
326 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Conservative Rishi Sunak 352
Labour Keir Starmer 199
SNP Humza Yousaf 43
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 15
DUP Jeffrey Donaldson 8
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald 7
Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth 3
SDLP Colum Eastwood 2
Alba Alex Salmond 2
Green Carla Denyer
Adrian Ramsay 		1
Alliance Naomi Long 1
Reclaim Laurence Fox 1
Independent – 15
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Rishi Sunak
Conservative

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025.[1] It will determine the composition of the House of Commons and the next Government of the United Kingdom. It is expected to be the first UK general election held under the reign of Charles III. Significant constituency boundary changes will be in effect, the first such changes since before the 2010 general election.

Background

The next election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025,[1] with Parliament being dissolved no later than 17 December 2024, after the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Although a general election campaign encompassing the Christmas period is seen as unlikely by analysts, it is widely expected that the incumbent Conservative Party will delay the election as long as possible while it remains behind in opinion polling.[2][3][4]

The results of the 2019 general election are given below, alongside the current numbers in the House of Commons. Numbers have changed through by-elections, defections and suspensions of Members from their party that have taken place throughout the present Parliament.

This table relates to the composition of the House of Commons after the 2024 UK general election and summarises the changes in party affiliation that took place during the 2024–present Parliament.

Affiliation Members
Elected
in 2024[5] 		Current[6] Differ­ence
Labour[a] 411[b] 402 Decrease 9
Conservative 121 121 Steady
Liberal Democrats 72 72 Steady
SNP 9 9 Steady
Independent 6 15[c] Increase 9
Sinn Féin 7 7 Steady
DUP 5 5 Steady
Reform UK 5 5 Steady
Green (E&W) 4 4 Steady
Plaid Cymru 4 4 Steady
SDLP 2 2 Steady
Alliance 1 1 Steady
TUV 1 1 Steady
UUP 1 1 Steady
Speaker 1 1 Steady
Vacant 0 0 Steady
Total 650 650 Steady
Total voting[d] 639 639 Steady
Majority of voting 181 165[10] Steady
This table:

For full details of changes during the 2024–present Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.

Before this general election, in March 2022 the Labour Party had abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would become an unlawful practice again under the Equality Act 2010.[11]

Following the Supreme Court's decision in November 2022 that a proposed second Scottish independence referendum is beyond the authority of the Scottish Parliament, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) announced her intention to treat the next general election as a de facto independence referendum.[12] Unionist parties have rejected this characterisation.[12] Sturgeon announced her resignation as SNP leader and first minister on 15 February 2023, and was succeeded on 27 March by Humza Yousaf.[13]

Electoral system

See also: Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 and Politics of the United Kingdom

General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the 15-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.[14] Provisions for these changes have been enacted in the Elections Act 2022.

Boundary reviews

The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, was commenced in 2011, but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016.[15][16][17] The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018[18][19] and made their reports public a week later.[20][21][22][18] However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[23]

A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the 2018 boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.[24][25]

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[26][27] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[28] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[29][30][31][32] They were required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023.[23] Once the reports have been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament.

The boundary changes are expected to take effect from the end of October 2023, meaning that the general election will be contested on these new boundaries.[33]

Notional 2019 results

The notional results of the 2019 election, if they had taken place under boundaries recommended by the Sixth Periodic Review.

The election will be fought under new constituency boundaries therefore creating a notional result from 2019, as if it had been fought on the boundaries established in 2023. These notional results will be important when calculating seat gains and losses.[34]

In England, seats in Northern England will be given to Southern England due to the large population growth. North West England and North East England will lose two seats each whereas South East England will gain 8 seats and South West England will gain 3 seats.[35] Due to historic voting patterns this is expected to help the Conservatives.[36] According to the notional results on the map, the Conservatives would have won Wirral West and Leeds North West instead of the Labour Party, but Labour would have won Pudsey and Filton and Bradley Stoke instead of the Conservatives. Liberal Democrat Tim Farron's Westmorland and Lonsdale constituency is now notionally a Conservative seat. The abolishment of Walsall North and Walsall South makes the all the seats in the Borough of Walsall notionally Conservative. The new seat of Spen Valley would be notionally Conservative despite being primarily created out a Labour constituency, Batley and Spen and the new seat of Blyth and Ashington would be notionally Labour despite the town of Blyth being moved out of a Conservative constituency, Blyth Valley.

In Scotland, the notional general election results would have had the following changes due to Scotland losing two seats.[37] The Scottish National Party is the most benefitting party from the boundary changes as they would have won 49 seats instead of 48. The Scottish Conservatives would have only won five seats instead of six. Scottish Labour would have retained Edinburgh South. Scottish Liberal Democrats would have only won two seats instead of four (Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland) under the new boundaries if they had been contested in the 2019 general election.

Under the new boundaries, Wales will lose 8 seats, and will only elect 32 MPs instead of 40 they elected in 2019. The dominant force in Wales, Welsh Labour, will reportedly benefit more from the boundary changes than the Conservatives.[38] Labour will win 18 instead of the 22 MPs they elected in 2019, but the Welsh Conservatives would be dramatically reduced from 14 down to 11. Due to the abolishment and merging of rural seats in West Wales, Plaid Cymru would have only won two instead of three.

In Northern Ireland, the notional results have an identical result to the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland.

Campaign

Liberal Democrats

The Scottish Liberal Democrats aim to use the ferry fiasco to regain their former seats in the Scottish Highlands.[39]

Scottish National Party

On 24 June 2023, at an event at the Caird Hall in Dundee, Humza Yousaf announced his support for using the general election as a referendum to demand Scottish independence.[40]

Date of the election

At the 2019 general election, in which the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the manifesto of the party contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act due to "paralysis at a time when the country has needed decisive action".[41] The pledge was confirmed in the first Queen's Speech following the election.[42]

In December 2020, the government published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.[43]

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 received royal assent on 24 March 2022 and entered into force the same day. The prime minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met."

The Electoral Commission has confirmed that the 2019 Parliament must be dissolved, at the latest, by 17 December 2024, and that the next general election must take place no later than 28 January 2025.[44][45]

Possible dates

In September 2021, Oliver Dowden, the newly appointed chairman of the Conservative Party, told party staff to prepare for a general election. In March 2022, Dowden announced that the Conservatives would start a two-year election campaign in May, implying an election date of May 2024.[46] It was reported in April 2023 by The Telegraph that autumn 2024 was the preferred date of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for the election to be held.[47] In September 2023, the announcement of Rishi Sunak's planned shift on green policies led many politicians and political pundits to believe it was essentially the beginning of an election campaign for May 2024.[48][49]

Candidates

Main article: Candidates in the next United Kingdom general election

MPs not standing for re-election

As of 17 October 2023, a total of 75 current members of Parliament have announced their intention not to stand for re-election (Conservative: 48, Labour: 14, Scottish National Party (SNP): 8, Independent: 3, Plaid Cymru: 1, Green: 1). Three MPs - Nadine Dorries (Conservative), Nigel Adams (Conservative), and Chris Pincher (Independent) - announced their intention not to stand again but later resigned from Parliament before the election.[50][51][52][53][54]

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Douglas Ross Moray 2017 Conservative 14 October 2021[55]
Alex Cunningham Stockton North 2010 Labour 25 November 2021[56]
Margaret Hodge Barking 1994 Labour 2 December 2021[57]
Barry Sheerman Huddersfield 1979 Labour 4 December 2021[58]
Harriet Harman Camberwell and Peckham 1982[e] Labour 7 December 2021[59]
Alan Whitehead Southampton Test 1997 Labour 14 January 2022[60]
Charles Walker Broxbourne 2005 Conservative 1 February 2022[61]
Ben Bradshaw Exeter 1997 Labour 3 February 2022[62]
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[63]
Paul Blomfield Sheffield Central 2010 Labour 21 February 2022[64]
Rosie Winterton Doncaster Central 1997 Labour 27 February 2022[65]
Margaret Beckett Derby South 1974[f] Labour 25 March 2022[66]
Crispin Blunt Reigate 1997 Conservative 1 May 2022[67]
Mike Penning Hemel Hempstead 2005 Conservative 17 May 2022[68]
Adam Afriyie Windsor 2005 Conservative 22 July 2022[69]
Jon Cruddas Dagenham and Rainham 2001 Labour 28 July 2022[70]
Colleen Fletcher Coventry North East 2015 Labour 5 September 2022[71]
Andrew Percy Brigg and Goole 2010 Conservative 8 November 2022[72]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022[73]
Chloe Smith Norwich North 2009 Conservative 22 November 2022[74][75]
William Wragg Hazel Grove 2015 Conservative
Gary Streeter South West Devon 1992[g] Conservative 25 November 2022[76][77]
Dehenna Davison Bishop Auckland 2019 Conservative
Chris Skidmore Kingswood 2010 Conservative 26 November 2022[78]
Sajid Javid Bromsgrove 2010 Conservative 2 December 2022[79]
Mark Pawsey Rugby 2010 Conservative 5 December 2022[80]
Matt Hancock West Suffolk 2010 Independent[h] 7 December 2022[81]
George Eustice Camborne and Redruth 2010 Conservative 18 January 2023[82]
Edward Timpson Eddisbury 2008[i] Conservative 1 February 2023[83]
Jo Gideon Stoke-on-Trent Central 2019 Conservative 9 February 2023[84]
Paul Beresford Mole Valley 1992[j] Conservative 13 February 2023[85][86]
Stephen McPartland Stevenage 2010 Conservative
Robin Walker Worcester 2010 Conservative 3 March 2023[87]
Graham Brady Altrincham and Sale West 1997 Conservative 7 March 2023[88]
Pauline Latham Mid Derbyshire 2010 Conservative 9 March 2023[89]
Gordon Henderson Sittingbourne and Sheppey 2010 Conservative 17 March 2023[90]
Craig Whittaker Calder Valley 2010 Conservative 21 March 2023[91]
Nicola Richards West Bromwich East 2019 Conservative 28 March 2023[92]
Henry Smith Crawley 2010 Conservative 31 March 2023[93]
John Howell Henley 2008 Conservative 11 April 2023[94]
Robert Goodwill Scarborough and Whitby 2005 Conservative 13 April 2023[95]
Julian Knight Solihull 2015 Independent[h] 21 April 2023[96][97]
Jonathan Djanogly Huntingdon 2001 Conservative
Matthew Offord Hendon 2010 Conservative 2 May 2023[98]
Conor McGinn St Helens North 2015 Independent[k] 5 May 2023[99]
Alister Jack Dumfries and Galloway 2017 Conservative 17 May 2023[100]
Richard Bacon South Norfolk 2001 Conservative 19 May 2023[101]
Dominic Raab Esher and Walton 2010 Conservative 22 May 2023[102][103]
Philip Dunne Ludlow 2005 Conservative
Margaret Greenwood Wirral West 2015 Labour 23 May 2023[104]
Andy Carter Warrington South 2019 Conservative 30 May 2023[105]
George Howarth Knowsley 1986[l] Labour 5 June 2023[106]
Ian Blackford Ross, Skye and Lochaber 2015 SNP 6 June 2023[107]
Caroline Lucas Brighton Pavilion 2010 Green Party 8 June 2023[108]
Will Quince Colchester 2015 Conservative 9 June 2023[109][110]
Royston Smith Southampton Itchen 2015 Conservative
Bill Cash Stone 1984[m] Conservative 10 June 2023[111]
Lucy Allan Telford 2015 Conservative 15 June 2023[112]
Peter Grant Glenrothes 2015 SNP 21 June 2023[113]
Angela Crawley Lanark and Hamilton East 2015 SNP 23 June 2023[114][115]
Steve Brine Winchester 2010 Conservative
Douglas Chapman Dunfermline and West Fife 2015 SNP 26 June 2023[116]
Chris Clarkson Heywood and Middleton 2019 Conservative 27 June 2023[117][118]
Greg Knight East Yorkshire 1983[n] Conservative
Stewart Hosie Dundee East 2005 SNP 28 June 2023[119]
Mhairi Black Paisley and Renfrewshire South 2015 SNP 4 July 2023[120]
John McNally Falkirk 2015 SNP 10 July 2023[121]
Ben Wallace Wyre and Preston North 2005[o] Conservative 15 July 2023[122]
Philippa Whitford Central Ayrshire 2015 SNP 18 July 2023[123]
Trudy Harrison Copeland 2017 Conservative 24 July 2023[124]
Stephen Hammond Wimbledon 2005 Conservative 14 September 2023[125]
David Jones Clwyd West 2005 Conservative 20 September 2023[126]
Alok Sharma Reading West 2010 Conservative 26 September 2023[127]
Chris Grayling Epsom and Ewell 2001 Conservative 6 October 2023[128]
Lisa Cameron East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 2015 Conservative [p] 17 October 2023[129]

MPs deselected

See also: Preselection and Deselection of Labour MPs

Some sitting MPs have not been selected by their party to recontest their seat (or a successor seat). Options available to these MPs include standing down, challenging their non-selection, seeking selection for another seat, and contesting the election under a different banner.

Members of Parliament deselected
MP Current Seat First elected Party (as elected) Reason
Richard Bacon South Norfolk 2001 Conservative Deselected by the Conservative Association and subsequently announced his retirement[130][131]
Andrew Bridgen North West Leicestershire 2010 Conservative Expelled from the Conservative Party and sits as a Reclaim Party MP; he plans to contest the next election[132][133]
Jeremy Corbyn Islington North 1983 Labour Excluded from selection by the National Executive Committee of the Labour Party; Corbyn sits as an independent but remains a party member[134]
Jonathan Djanogly Huntingdon 2001 Conservative Deselected by the Conservative Association and subsequently announced his retirement
Patrick Grady Glasgow North 2015 SNP Deselected[135]
Neil Hudson Penrith and The Border 2019 Conservative Sought selection for the new seat of Penrith and Solway, losing to fellow MP Mark Jenkinson; he subsequently applied for the West Suffolk seat, losing to former political adviser Nick Timothy[136][137]
Angus MacNeil Na h-Eileanan an Iar 2005 SNP Expelled from the SNP and sits as an independent; he plans to contest the next election[138]
Christina Rees Neath 2015 Labour Co-op Excluded from selection by the National Executive Committee of the Labour Party; Rees sits as an independent but remains a party member[139]
Sam Tarry Ilford South 2019 Labour Deselected by the Constituency Labour Party in favour of Jas Athwal[140]
Claudia Webbe Leicester East 2019 Labour Expelled from the Labour Party due to a criminal conviction and sits as an independent[141]
Mick Whitley Birkenhead 2019 Labour Sought selection for the redrawn seat of Birkenhead, losing to fellow MP Alison McGovern[142]
Beth Winter Cynon Valley 2019 Labour Sought selection for the new seat of Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, losing to fellow MP Gerald Jones[143]

MPs changing constituencies

Due to boundary changes, most MPs standing for re-election will seek to represent a seat at least slightly different from their present seat. However, in some cases sitting MPs have secured selection to stand in a substantially or completely different seat from their present seat. They may happen because their seat is very marginal and is likely to be lost by their party, boundary changes abolish their present seat or their present seat is redrawn in an unfavourable way in boundary changes.

Members of Parliament changing constituencies
MP Current Seat First elected Party (as elected) New seat Note
Stuart Andrew Pudsey 2010 Conservative TBC Andrew has said he will not stand in either of the two new Pudsey constituencies being created, but has not ruled out standing in a different seat.[144]
Stuart Anderson Wolverhampton South West 2019 Conservative South Shropshire While there are no significant changes to his current seat, it is a marginal Conservative seat, whereas South Shropshire is likely a safe Conservative seat. Anderson had initially announced he would not stand for re-election but subsequently reversed his decision.[92]
Simon Baynes Clwyd South 2019 Conservative North Shropshire Selected for North Shropshire after his current seat is being abolished in boundary changes. North Shropshire, which the Liberal Democrats gained in a 2021 by-election, contains none of Baynes' present seat.[145]
Flick Drummond Meon Valley 2019 Conservative Winchester Selected for Winchester in July 2023 as her present seat is being abolished. The Winchester seat contains about 25% of the Meon Valley seat. Drummond sought selection for the proposed Fareham and Waterlooville seat, which contains a larger proportion of her current seat and is forecast to be much safer for the Conservatives than Winchester (a key Liberal Democrat target), but was defeated by Suella Braverman, the current MP for Fareham and Home Secretary.
Eddie Hughes Walsall North 2019 Conservative Tamworth Selected for Tamworth as his current constituency is being abolished, and the main successor seat of Walsall and Bloxwich is considered significantly more vulnerable to the Labour Party than Tamworth, where the incumbent MP Chris Pincher announced he would be standing down following a scandal.[146] However, Pincher resigned in September 2023 and a by-election was called for the seat. Hughes stated he would only maintain his candidacy if the Conservatives lost the seat. As the Conservatives lost the seat to Labour, Hughes will maintain his candidacy.
Paul Holmes Eastleigh 2019 Conservative Hamble Valley Selected to the new Hamble Valley seat. The new seat contains 48% of his current seat.[147]
Alison McGovern Wirral South 2010 Labour Birkenhead Selected for Birkenhead due the abolition of her present constituency, defeating incumbent MP for Birkenhead Mick Whitley in the selection process.[148] The reconfigured Birkenhead contains a small part of her present seat.[149]
Alec Shelbrooke Elmet and Rothwell 2010 Conservative Wetherby and Easingwold Selected for Wetherby and Easingwold due to his current seat being abolished and broken up between four other seats. Wetherby and Easingwold will take in the Harewood and Wetherby wards of Leeds, but is otherwise based in North Yorkshire rather than West Yorkshire.[150]
Iain Stewart Milton Keynes South 2010 Conservative Buckingham and Bletchley Selected for the new Buckingham and Bletchley seat, as his present seat is being abolished.[151]
Alison Thewliss Glasgow Central 2015 SNP Glasgow North Selected for Glasgow North due to her current seat being abolished.[152] This was after unsuccessfully challenging David Linden for the nomination in Glasgow East.[153]
Jamie Wallis Bridgend 2019 Conservative TBC Announced on 22 October 2023 that he would not be contesting a seat in Wales following the boundary changes which reduced the number of Welsh seats from 40 to 32 and significantly altered Bridgend. Most of his current constituency of Bridgend is merged with part of the Labour-held seat of Ogmore, with a smaller part becoming part of a new Aberafan Maesteg constituency.[154]

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling for UK general elections
2010 election
Opinion polls
2015 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2017 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2019 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
Next election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election § Graphical summary.[edit]

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Includes 43 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[7]
  2. ^ Some media sources, such as BBC News, listed Labour's total as 412, by including the Speaker (who, to demonstrate his neutrality, had resigned his Labour Party membership on taking office).
  3. ^ Nine were elected as Labour MPs but seven of these have been suspended from the parliamentary party until December 2024. A further MP, Mike Amesbury, was suspended on 27 October 2024. Rosie Duffield resigned from the Labour Party on 28 September 2024. Five Independent MPs form the Independent Alliance technical group.
  4. ^ In the current (2024–present) Parliament, the seven members of Sinn Féin follow a policy of abstentionism. They do not swear into the house, and do not take part in its formal processes (doing so would also compel a by-election).[8] The Speaker and deputy speakers (two Conservative and one Labour) by convention exercise only a casting vote.[9]
  5. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Peckham in the 1982 by-election.
  6. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Lincoln in the October 1974 election
  7. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Plymouth Sutton.
  8. ^ a b Elected as Conservative.
  9. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Crewe and Nantwich in the 2008 by-election.
  10. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central.
  11. ^ Elected as Labour.
  12. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Knowsley North in the 1986 by-election.
  13. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Stafford in a by-election in 1984.
  14. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Derby North.
  15. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Lancaster and Wyre.
  16. ^ Originally elected as an SNP MP.

References

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  2. ^ Next UK General Election. Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2023.
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  4. ^ When is the next UK general election as Rishi Sunak ‘plans next date’?. Metro. 12 April 2023. Retrieved 5 May 2023.
  5. ^ "UK General election 2024 Results". BBC News. Retrieved 26 October 2024.
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