Potential enlargement of the European Union

This article is limited to future enlargement. For the enlargement aspect of the EU as a whole, and historical enlargements, see Enlargement of the European Union.

The future enlargement of the European Union is open to any European country which is democratic, operates a free market or mixed economy, and is willing to accept all previous EU law. Past enlargement has brought membership from six to twenty-seven members since the foundation of the European Union (as the European Coal and Steel Community by the Inner Six in 1952). These criteria are included in the Copenhagen criteria, agreed in 1993, and the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49). Whether a country is European or not is a subject to political assessment by the EU institutions, but countries in the Council of Europe that fall onto the border between Europe and Asia all have a significant claim for EU membership, as shown with the accession of geographically Asian, but culturally European, Cyprus.

At present, a country must first sign a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU before applying for membership, which, if successful, will result in the state being awarded the status of an official candidate. Negotiations then take place where it adopts EU norms which, once fully taken on board, will result in accession. The Western Balkan states are currently adopting SAA agreements with Croatia and Macedonia joining Turkey in achieving candidate status. Although Croatia has long been considered the next member of the EU, the 2008 financial crisis has greatly increased momentum for Iceland to join, which could be achieved within a very limited time due to its European Economic Area membership, and with EU officials seeing reunification of Cyprus being achieved by 2010 (hence enlarging to Northern Cyprus).

The European Union has tended to enlarge along regional lines, adding groups of nearby nations. Currently, the EU is very interested in the integration of the Balkan states. There is no opposition to any of the remaining Western European states, though most have no intention of joining at the present time. Of Eastern Europe, Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform has said, "Belarus is too authoritarian, Moldova too poor, Ukraine too large, and Russia too scary for the EU to contemplate offering membership any time soon." Due to the 2004 "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, and the 2003 "Rose Revolution" in Georgia, both countries have started and already implemented extensive reform programs, and the prospects for both countries have become more positive. Armenia has also shown interest in joining the EU.

Recognised candidate countries

  current members

  candidate countries

  potential candidate countries

  application frozen as negotiations rejected in a referendum

  application rejected by the EC

  accession rejected in two referenda (1972 and 1994)

There are at present three "candidate countries", who have applied to the EU and been accepted in principle. These states have, or will shortly, begin the accession process by adopting EU law to bring the states in line with the rest of the Union. Croatia and the FYR Macedonia have applied recently and are both states of the former Yugoslavia (all other successor states are planning to join the EU) but Turkey is a long standing candidate, having applied in 1987 and gaining candidate status in 1999. This is due to both the complex nature of bringing Turkey into line with EU standards and also the political issues surrounding the accession of the country.

However, neither of these states are yet able to join. Under the current Treaty of Nice, the EU cannot have more than 27 members, a limit which was reached when Bulgaria and Romania joined the union on 1 January 2007. This limit would be removed by the Treaty of Lisbon, designed to reform the Union to cope with new members, but it is not known when, or if, it is likely to come into force. Once the limit is removed, it is expected that Croatia will accede shortly after.

Croatia

Main article: Accession of Croatia to the European Union

Croatia applied for EU membership in 2003, and the European Commission recommended making it an official candidate in early 2004. Candidate country status was granted to Croatia by the European Council (the EU's heads of government) in mid-2004 and a date for the beginning of entry negotiations, while originally set for early 2005, was postponed to October of the same year. Following the opening of accession negotiations on 3 October 2005, the process of screening 33 acquis chapters with Croatia was completed on 18 October 2006.

After Slovenia, Croatia has recovered best from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia and so hopes to become the second former Yugoslav state to become a member. It has a stable market economy, and has had better statistical indicators than Bulgaria and Romania which joined in 2007.

In late 2005, the EU officials projected that the accession of Croatia would likely happen between 2010 and 2012. In October 2006, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn stated: "If Croatia will be able to reform its judiciary and economy with rigour and resolution, then it is likely to be ready around the end of this decade."

The finalisation of all chapters of the acquis communautaire is expected in September 2009, while signing the accession treaty would happen in the year after. Before starting negotiations with Croatia, the acquis was divided into 35 chapters, 4 more than the usual 31; the new chapters, previously part of the agricultural policy, are areas expected to be troublesome, as they were with the other applicants. Croatia was expected to be a full EU member by 2010, though this presupposed ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon.

Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Main article: Accession of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to the European Union

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia applied to become an official candidate on 22 March 2004. On 9 November 2005 the European Commission recommended that it become a candidate state. EU leaders agreed to this recommendation on 17 December, formally naming the country as an official candidate, but no date for starting negotiations has been announced yet.

Peace is maintained with underlying ethnic tensions over Albanians in the west that achieved greater autonomy through the implementation of the Ohrid Accords. Unlike Serbia, it has maintained sovereignty over all its territory. Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski has suggested that the country could join in 2012 or 2013. However, the EU has not come out with any official recognition of this suggested time period.

On 17 December 2005 the European Council welcomed and congratulated the country's achievements in implementing multiple reforms and agreements (Copenhagen criteria, Stabilisation and Association process, Ohrid Agreement).

The country has a dispute with its southern neighbour and current EU member, Greece, over the name Macedonia (see: Macedonia naming dispute). Because of this, the EU recognises the country as "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" (FYROM) and this is the only denotation by which the country may hold negotiations with the EU. The resolution of this issue has become a precondition for accession.

In 2008, the Greek government said it will block FYROM's NATO and European Union accession until the two agree on a name for Greece's northern neighbour, which broke away from Yugoslavia in 1991. Greece rejects the name "Macedonia" because it says it implies territorial ambitions towards Greece's own northern province of Macedonia, birthplace of Alexander the Great. Dora Bakoyannis, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Greece, accused FYROM of "an intransigent stance and its action of an irredentist and nationalistic logic". "I underlined that the intransigence that has persisted to date ... has left us with no other choice," she said. "We are not happy about that. Nobody likes vetoes." The country's difficulties in reaching European standards on the rule of law and the economy and the violence and irregularities in the 2008 parliamentary elections have cast doubts on the country's candidacy.

Turkey

Main article: Accession of Turkey to the European Union

The status of Turkey with regard to the EU has become a matter of major significance and considerable controversy in recent years. Turkey is one of the founding members of the Council of Europe since 1949 and has been an associate member of the European Union and its predecessors since 1964 following the signing of the EEC-Turkey Association Agreement (Ankara Agreement) in 1963. The country formally applied for full membership on 14 April 1987, but 12 years passed before it was recognised as a candidate country at the Helsinki Summit in 1999. After a summit in Brussels on 17 December 2004 (after the large 2004 enlargement), the European Council announced that membership negotiations with Turkey were officially opened on 3 October 2005. The screening process which began on 20 October 2005 was completed on 18 October 2006.

Turkey, classified as a developed country by the CIA, with the seventh largest economy in the Council of Europe and the fifteenth largest economy in the world, is part of the common EU customs territory since the entering into force of the EU-Turkey Customs Union in 1996. Turkey is a founding member of the OECD since 1961, a founding member of the OSCE since 1973 and an associate member of the Western European Union since 1992. Turkey is also a founding member of the G20 industrial nations (1999) which has close ties with the European Union.

Proponents of Turkey's membership argue that it is a key regional power with a large economy and the second largest military force of NATO that will enhance the EU's position as a global geostrategic player; given Turkey's geographic location and economic, political, cultural and historic ties in regions with large natural resources that are at the immediate vicinity of the EU's geopolitical sphere of influence; such as the East Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, the Middle East, the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia.

According to Carl Bildt, Swedish foreign minister, "[The accession of Turkey] would give the EU a decisive role for stability in the eastern part of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, which is clearly in the strategic interest of Europe." One of Turkey's key supporters for its bid to join the EU is the United Kingdom. In May 2008, Queen Elizabeth II said during a visit to Turkey, that "Turkey is uniquely positioned as a bridge between the East and West at a crucial time for the European Union and the world in general."

Proponents also argue that Turkey abides by most conditions for accession. Some maintain that the EU can no longer refuse Turkey, as it has had an open candidacy for over 40 years, and has made major improvements in human rights in order to try to satisfy the entry conditions.

However some, such as French President Nicholas Sarkozy, maintain an opposition to Turkey's membership. Opponents argue that Turkey does not respect the key principles that are expected in a liberal democracy, such as the freedom of expression, with potentially repressive laws like Article 301 (which was reformed on April 30, 2008); and because of the significant role of the army on the Turkish administrative foreground through the National Security Council; whose military-dominated structure was reformed on July 23, 2003, in line with the requests from the EU. Turkey's large population would also alter the balance of power in the representative European institutions. Upon joining the EU, Turkey's 70 million inhabitants would bestow it the second largest number of MEPs in the European Parliament. Demographic projections indicate that Turkey would surpass Germany in the number of seats by 2020. Some oppose the accession of a large Muslim country. Turkey's membership would also affect future enlargement plans, especially the number of nations seeking EU membership, grounds by which Valéry Giscard d'Estaing has opposed Turkey's admission. d'Estaing has suggested that it would lead to demands for accession by Morocco. Morocco's application is already rejected on geographic grounds, and Turkey, unlike Morocco, has territory in Europe. French President Nicholas Sarkozy (then a candidate) has stated in January 2007 that "enlarging Europe with no limit risks destroying European political union, and that I do not accept...I want to say that Europe must give itself borders, that not all countries have a vocation to become members of Europe, beginning with Turkey which has no place inside the European Union." Only a small fraction of Turkish territory lies in the common geographical definition of Europe, but this is where the country's largest city and its economic and cultural capital, Istanbul, is located. EU member Cyprus is actually located to the south of Anatolia and is a part of Anatolia's continental shelf, thus geographically a part of Asia.

Another concern is that Turkey continues to occupy the northern third of the island of Cyprus, which became an EU member in 2004, with 40,000 Turkish troops stationed there since 1974. Turkey's original intention, which was declared by the Prime Minister of that period, Bülent Ecevit, was to avoid the island's annexation to Greece and to bring an end to the Cypriot intercommunal violence which took place between 1963 and 1974. Since 1974, Turkey refuses to recognise the Republic of Cyprus as the sole authority on the island, until a solution for the Cyprus dispute is found under the auspices of the United Nations. Historically though, the UN Security Council, in its Resolution 541 of 18 November 1983, has declared the occupation of northern Cyprus legally invalid and called for the withdrawal of Turkish forces. The UN-backed Annan Plan for the re-unification of Cyprus was actively supported by the EU and Turkey. However, the Annan Plan was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots at north, but was rejected by the Greek Cypriots at south, in separate referenda which took place in April 2004.

EU member states must unanimously agree to Turkish membership for Turkish accession to be successful. A number of nations could oppose it, notably Austria, which historically served as a bulwark for Christian Europe against the Ottoman Empire; and France, which is fearful of the prospect of another wave of Muslim immigrants, especially given the poor integration of its existing Muslim minority.

Western Balkans (SAA states)

The EU's relations with the Western Balkans states (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia) were moved from the "External Relations" to the "Enlargement" policy segment. These states currently are not recognised as candidate countries, but only as "potential candidate countries". This is a consequence of the advancement of the Stabilisation and Association process.

The successor states of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia), as well as Kosovo, have all adopted EU integration as an aim of foreign policy. Slovenia joined the EU on 1 May 2004. Croatia is currently negotiating its entry. The Republic of Macedonia is recognised as an EU candidate country.

Albania in the Western Balkans was for a long period under one of the harshest communist governments in the world, which imposed on the people of Albania an international isolation similar to that of North Korea. The post communist Albanian governments have adopted EU integration as the strategic orientation of the country.

The EU signed an agreement with Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and the Republic of Macedonia on 13 April 2007, and Serbia on 15 May 2007, which included visa facilitations for the citizens of these countries. The signing EU Commissioner Franco Frattini was quoted saying that this is the first step toward a full abolishment of the visa requirements and the free movement of the Western Balkans citizens in EU. Negotiations for a visa-free travel regime with the aforementioned countries are expected to start in January 2008.

The 2003 European Council summit in Thessaloniki set integration of the Western Balkans as a priority of EU expansion. A further meeting in Mamaia, Romania, concluded that "Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro are considered likely to join the EU between 2010 and 2015" depending on their fulfillment of the adhesion criteria. This summit was attended by two EU members, seven countries now in the EU, and the eight EU hopefuls (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, and Ukraine). However, this summit was not linked to any EU institution, whatsoever, and the target dates and agreements presented there mainly aimed at encouraging the candidate and potential candidate countries on their way to eventual full membership into the EU.

On 9 November 2005, the European Commission suggested in a new strategy paper that the current enlargement agenda (Croatia, Turkey and the Western Balkans) could potentially block the possibility of a future accession of Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Olli Rehn has said on occasion that the EU should "avoid overstretching our capacity, and instead consolidate our enlargement agenda," adding, "this is already a challenging agenda for our accession process."

Albania

Main article: Accession of Albania to the European Union

Albania was the first of the officially recognized Potential Candidate countries to start the negotiations of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement in 2003. This was successfully agreed and signed on 12 June 2006, completing the first major step toward Albania's full membership in the EU.

However, Albania's admission to the EU depends on the country's economic and political stability. Following the steps of the recently admitted Eastern European countries, Albania has been extensively engaged with EU institutions and NATO, and has maintained its position as a stability factor and a strong ally of Western Europe in the troubled and divided region of the Balkans. Albania's Prime Minister has said Albania could apply to join the EU in 2009.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Main article: Accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the European Union

Bosnia and Herzegovina still has many economic as well as political problems. Recently it has been making slow but steady progress, including co-operation with the war crimes tribunal at The Hague, so the outlook is positive.

Negotiations on Stabilisation and Association Agreement started during the year 2005 and concluded December of 2007. This is the first step before making an application for candidate status and membership negotiations. The negotiations were expected to be finalised in late 2007, but due to the failure of the government to decide in time on police reform in line with EU principles they could be finalised in late 2008 at the nearest. Due to this setback and the hard-line positions of most Bosnian politicians High Representative Miroslav Lajčák has stated that he will shift more of his focus for the time being from EU accession to reforms which would improve the standard of living in the country.

The Union may show some leniency regarding its economy due to the political issues at stake. Former President of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, has stated that Bosnia has a chance of joining the EU soon after Croatia, but it is entirely dependent on the country's progress.

The SAA was initialled on Tuesday, 4th December 2007 by Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn and caretaker Prime Minister Nikola Špirić. The initialling came in the wake of successful negotiations by Miroslav Lajčák in regards to passing his new quorum rules laws and also the commitment of Bosnian and Herzegovinian politicians to implementing police reform. The SAA was signed on 16 June 2008 and Bosnia and Herzegovina might become an EU candidate in the spring of 2009

Kosovo

Main article: Accession of Kosovo to the European Union

As confirmed by the Thessaloniki Summit in June 2003, Kosovo is firmly anchored in the framework of the Stabilisation and Association Process, the EU policy which applies to the Western Balkans.

On 20 April 2005 the European Commission adopted the Communication on Kosovo to the Council "A European Future for Kosovo" which reinforces the Commission’s commitment to Kosovo. Furthermore, on 20 January 2006, the Council adopted a European Partnership for Serbia and Montenegro including Kosovo as defined by UNSCR1244. The European Partnership is a means to materialise the European perspective of the Western Balkan countries within the framework of the stabilisation and association process.

The Provisional Institutions of Self Government (PISG) adopted in August 2006 an Action Plan for the Implementation of the European Partnership and this document forms the current working basis between the EU and the PISG. The PISG regularly report on the implementation of this action plan. Twelve meetings of the so-called "SAP Tracking Mechanism" (STM), specially devised to promote policy dialogue between the EU and the Kosovan authorities on EU approximation matters have taken place so far. In addition, a new structure of sectoral meetings under the umbrella of the STM was established in the areas of good governance, economy, internal market, innovation and infrastructure in March 2007.

Montenegro

Main article: Accession of Montenegro to the European Union

In the independence referendum of 21 May 2006, the Montenegrin people voted for Montenegro to leave the state union of Serbia and Montenegro and become an independent state. It is not yet clear how this will affect Europe's second newest independent state but it is believed that negotiations with the EU will allow quick implementation of an SAA agreement and speedier entry to the club of European nations than had it stayed tied to Serbia's EU bid. Montenegro is experiencing ecological, judicial and crime-related problems that may hinder its bid. Montenegro has unilaterally adopted the euro as its currency since its launch in 2002, and before that had used the German mark. SAA negotiations started in September 2006. The Agreement was initialled on 15 March 2007 and officially signed on 15 October 2007. Recent press reports indicate that Montenegro seeks EU-candidate status in the first half of 2008 [3], although it is more likely this will happen later in the year.

Serbia

Main article: Accession of Serbia to the European Union

Serbia has to deal with the staunch disagreement concerning the unilateral independence of Kosovo. Serbia began the reform process in 2000, back then as part of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

The government of Serbia wants to prepare the country for EU accession between 2012 and 2015. However, it seems much more likely that it would happen around 2015 due to many domestic problems and extensive reforms that should be implemented, and the current institutional crisis in the EU. Negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement started in November 2005.

The fact that accused war criminal Ratko Mladić still has not been captured is an obstruction in these negotiations. On 3 May 2006, the European Union suspended SAA talks with Serbia over its failure to arrest Ratko Mladić. This is likely to severely hinder the pace of EU entry and the reform process in Serbia. In July 2006, an action plan for the arrest of Ratko Mladić was issued by the government, aimed to locate and bring the former general to justice, which is expected to improve relations with EU. Subject to resolving this issue, SAA negotiations are expected to conclude in 2007. Likewise, on 13 June 2007 the association talks between Serbia and the EU have resumed.

On 7 November 2007 Serbia initialed an SAA with the European Union, i.e. agreed on the final version of the text to which no or little changes are to be made, which is the step immediately preceding the official signing that is expected to take place in 2008. This is a milestone in Serbia's accession negotiations, and was executed following the advice of chief war crimes prosecutor Carla Del Ponte which advised the EU that the country was complying adequately with the tribunal, though that Ratko Mladić must be in The Hague prior to any official signing being able to take place.

On 29 April 2008 Serbian officials signed the association treaty with the EU, and the Serbian President seeks official candidate status by the end of 2008. Serbia is expected to be a EU candidate country on the 15 December 2008

Progress

It was previously the norm for enlargements to see multiple entrants join the Union at once. The only previous enlargement of a single state was the 1981 admission of Greece.

However, EU members have warned that, following the significant impact of the fifth enlargement in 2004, a more individual approach will be adopted in the future, although the entry of pairs or small groups of countries may yet coincide. Croatia may be expected to join first, possibly around 2010, Macedonia possibly around 2012, and Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey following, either together or in smaller groups.

The timing of smaller-wave enlargements is subject to many variables and the dates given in the table below are the earliest possible ones - procedures do not allow speedier admission in most cases (for example, it takes at least two years to move from a membership application to the start of negotiations).

European Free Trade Association states

See also: European Free Trade Association and European Economic Area

The European Union (blue) and EFTA countries (Green)

Switzerland

Main article: Switzerland and the European Union

Switzerland took part in negotiating the EEA agreement with the EU and signed the agreement on 2 May 1992 and submitted an application for accession to the EU on 20 May 1992. A Swiss referendum held on 6 December 1992 rejected EEA membership. As a consequence, the Swiss Government decided to suspend negotiations for EU accession until further notice, but its application remains open. The popular initiative entitled "Yes to Europe!", calling for the opening of immediate negotiations for EU membership, was rejected in a 4 March 2001 referendum. The Swiss Federal Council (which is in favour of EU membership) had advised the population to vote against this referendum since the preconditions for the opening of negotiations had not been met. It is thought that the fear of a loss of neutrality and independence is the key issue against membership among eurosceptics. EU membership however continues to be the objective of the government and is a "long-term aim" of the Federal Council. Furthermore, the Swiss population agreed to their country's participation in the Schengen Agreement. As a result of that, Switzerland plans to join the area in November 2008.

The Swiss federal government policy has recently undergone substantial U-turns in policy, however, concerning specific agreements with the EU on freedom of movement for people, workers and areas concerning tax evasion have been addressed within the Swiss banking system. This was a result of the first Switzerland-EU summit in May 2004 where nine bilateral agreements were signed. Romano Prodi, former President of the European Commission, said the agreements "moved Switzerland closer to Europe." Joseph Deiss of the Swiss Federal Council said, "We might not be at the very centre of Europe but we're definitely at the heart of Europe". He continued, "We're beginning a new era of relations between our two entities." [4]

Norway

Main article: Norway and the European Union

Norway is not an EU member state, but is, in effect, required to adopt EU legislation in many policy areas due to its participation in the European Economic Area (EEA), through the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Additionally, Norway has chosen to opt into many of the Union's programmes, institutions and activities. Whether or not the country should apply for conventional membership has been a dominant and divisive issue. Division within the current Red-Green Coalition has blocked the issue since the 2005 parliamentary elections. Norway has applied four times for EEC and EU membership. In 1962 and 1967 France vetoed Norway's entry, while the later 1972 referendum and the 1994 referendum were both lost by the government.

A large issue for Norway is its fishing resources, which are a significant part of the national economy and which would come under the Common Fisheries Policy if Norway were to acceede to the EU. Norway has high GNP per capita, not so much agriculture, and few underdeveloped areas. Norway annually loses out on €180 million by not being an EU member, according to reports by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. However, this fact is as well seen by the majority of the Norwegians as a disadvantage, since they will also have to allow other EU countries to fish in the rich Norwegian waters.

Norway is a member of the European Economic Area (the EU common market), the Schengen treaty and an associate member of the Western European Union as well as other areas normally considered as under the EU umbrella of treaties and agreements. Norway has been a member of NATO since 1949.

Iceland

Main article: Iceland and the European Union

Iceland has never applied for EU membership but is already associated with the union through the EEA where it has access to the Single market. Iceland is also a member of the Schengen treaty and has expressed interest in joining the euro whilst still remaining outside the EU. The public opinion in Iceland shows a stable support towards joining the European Union, the only EFTA country with such support.

Like in Norway, fear of losing control over the fishery resources in its territorial waters is the single largest issue keeping Iceland reluctant to join the EU. Since these two countries have so much in common it is generally expected that they would join together, as it would not be easy for Iceland to be the only Nordic country to remain outside the EU. The government has established a committee to look into ways to protect fishing privileges in case of an EU accession.

Application for EU membership is not on the current centre-right government's agenda, and none of the political parties have explicitly expressed that Iceland should join the union although the Alliance remains in favour of negotiations. The Left-Green Movement has been firmly opposed to membership and the same goes for the conservative Independence Party, a member of the ruling coalition, although its former chairman Davíð Oddsson indicated in a speech in January 2005 that a policy change was not ruled out depending on how the EU will evolve in coming years.

Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said on 19 May 2006 that he expected Iceland to join the European Union before Croatia would, he went back on his statement when he stated on 1 December 2006 that Croatia would likely become the European Union's 28^th member state; he repeated this statement on 11 October 2007, with the comment that "[t]he only surprise could be Iceland, if they soon apply for membership".

Former Prime Minister Halldór Ásgrímsson of the Progressive Party has predicted that Iceland will join the EU by 2015, and said that the decisive factor for Iceland would be the future and the size of the Eurozone. He admitted however that the right political situation doesn't exist at the moment to take a decision on the issue.

Liechtenstein

Liechtenstein is, like Norway and Iceland, a member of the European Economic Area. It might consider joining the EU if Switzerland joins. If it attained membership it would be by far the smallest member state.

One concern is that unlike the constitutional monarchies within the EU (such as the United Kingdom, Belgium, or Spain), the Prince of Liechtenstein has considerable executive powers, and is not merely a figurehead. These powers would have to be rescinded in order for Lichtenstein to be fully democratic, which is a precondition for admission to the EU.

Eastern Partnership states

Main article: Eastern Partnership

Proposed members of the Eastern Partnership; light blue is the EU; darker blue are proposed members; cyan are partly participating countries

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the former Soviet republics of Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus have been looked upon as potential candidates for EU enlargement. All are or have been closely linked to Russia and would need to concentrate more on other European partners to attain candidate membership. Russia itself has also been brought up for consideration as well as Kazakhstan (which has a portion of its western territory in Eastern Europe). However, these states will probably remain outside the Union, at least for a significant amount of time. They are not currently on any enlargement agenda as the Union is currently focused on the Balkan states and Turkey.

A summit in Mamaia, Eastern Romania, in May 2004 showed enlargement to Eastern Europe to be a definite possibility, though only Ukraine and Moldova were present, as Belarus is currently not concerned with membership.

The South Caucasus states of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan have been the site of much instability in the 1990s. Currently, there seems to be a feeling of hope in the region's future. Their EU membership would be conditional on the political assessment by the European Council about whether or not they are considered European. Nevertheless all three states are admitted as full members into the Council of Europe (like Cyprus) after similar assessment process. Before the first official visit of external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner to the three Caucasus states, it was stated that if she were asked about enlargement, she would not rule it out.[5] It is unclear as to when they may move towards membership but they are part of the European Neighbourhood Policy and are often referred to as part of "a wider Europe". Since their only land contact with European states is through Russia and Turkey, it is possible that they would only join after Turkey did so first. However, on 12 January 2002, the European Parliament noted that Armenia and Georgia may enter the EU in the future regardless.

In May 2008, Sweden and Poland put forward a joint proposal for an Eastern Partnership with Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, with Russia and Belarus participating in some aspects. The Polish minister said ""We all know the EU has enlargement fatigue. We have to use this time to prepare as much as possible so that when the fatigue passes, membership becomes something natural"

Ukraine

Main article: Ukraine and the European Union

Many political factions of Ukraine advocate joining the EU and developing ties with Europe. Some in the EU are more doubtful concerning Ukraine's prospects. In 2002, EU Expansion Commissioner Günter Verheugen said that "a European perspective" for Ukraine does not necessarily mean membership in 10 or 20 years, however, that does not mean it is not a possibility. A Ukraine-EU Troika meeting in April 2004, on the eve of the newest wave of expansion, dealt a blow to Ukraine's European aspiration when the EU ministers failed to grant market economy status to Ukraine; however, this was before the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.

For the time being, Ukraine will most likely develop intermediate relations with the EU as it is strongly backed by all major political forces in Poland, an EU member with strong historical ties with Ukraine (through the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth).

The Orange Revolution of late 2004 improved Ukraine's European prospects: Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko hinted that he would press the EU for deeper ties, and described a four-point plan: the acknowledgment of Ukraine as a market economy, entry in the World Trade Organization, associate membership with the European Union, and lastly full membership. In a similar way, the Ukrainian government asked Brussels to give Ukraine a clearer prospect for membership, saying that "The approved Action Plan reflects only the level of Ukraine-EU relations that we could have reached before the presidential elections in 2004."

On 13 January 2005 the European Parliament almost unanimously (467 votes to 19 in favour) passed a motion stating the wish of the European Parliament to establish closer ties with Ukraine with the possibility of EU membership. Though there is still a long way to go before negotiations about EU membership can start, the European Commission has stated that future EU membership will not be ruled out. Yushchenko has responded to the apathetic mood of the Commission by stating that he intends to send an application for EU membership "in the near future" and that he intends to scrutinise Ukraine's relationship with the CIS in order to assure EU integration is possible and if not to make it possible. Several EU leaders have already stated strong support for closer economic ties with Ukraine but have stopped short of direct support for such a bid. On 21 March 2005, Polish Foreign Minister Adam Daniel Rotfeld noted that Poland will in every way promote Ukraine's desire to be integrated with the EU, get the status of a market-economy country and join the WTO. He also said "At the present moment, we should take concrete steps in cooperation instead of engaging in empty talk about European integration". Three days later, a poll of the six largest EU nations conducted by a French research company showed that the European public would be more likely to accept Ukraine as a future EU member than any other country that is not currently an official candidate. Portugal also publicly stated it supports Ukraine's EU accession.

In October 2005, Commission president José Manuel Barroso said that the future of Ukraine is in the EU. On 9 November 2005, however, the European Commission has in a new strategy paper suggested that the current enlargement agenda (Croatia followed by the other ex-Yugoslav countries and Albania) could block the possibility of a future accession of Ukraine, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova. Commissioner Olli Rehn said that the EU should avoid overstretch, adding that the current enlargement agenda is already very heavy.

Moldova

Main article: Moldova and the European Union

The government has stated that Moldova has European aspirations but there has been little progress. In 2005 the ruling Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova reoriented their foreign policy towards Europe.

On 6 October 2005 the EU opened its permanent mission in Chişinău, the capital city of Moldova.

Belarus

Main article: Belarus and the European Union

The EU's relations with Belarus are strained as the EU has condemned the government of Belarus several times for authoritarian and anti-democratic practices, and even imposed sanctions on the country. Under its current president, Belarus has instead sought a close confederation with Russia, short of political reunion.

Georgia

Main article: Georgia and the European Union

Georgia's current President Mikheil Saakashvili, has expressed a desire for Georgia to join the EU. This view has been explicitly expressed on several occasions as links to the United States, EU and NATO have been strengthened in an attempt to move away from the Russian sphere of influence. Disputes continue over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In Ajaria, a significant hurdle in protecting the territorial integrity of the country was overcome when the authoritarian leader Aslan Abashidze was forced to resign in May 2004. However, the issue has again risen to the forefront as a result of the 2008 South Ossetia War.

Georgia is considered the most favoured Caucasus country to join the EU , especially after the Rose Revolution, but territorial disputes and corruption are still an issue. It has not, as yet, applied for EU membership.

Armenia

Main article: Armenia and the European Union

Armenia is geographically located entirely within Western Asia. However, like Cyprus and Georgia, it has traditionally been regarded as culturally associated with Europe because of its deep historical connections with European society, including an old and large diaspora.

Several Armenian officials have expressed the desire for their country to eventually become an EU member state, some predicting that it will make an official bid for membership in a few years. Public opinion in Armenia suggests the move for membership would be welcomed, with 64% out of a sample of 2,000 being in favour and only 11.8% being against.

Armenia is still in conflict over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh with neighbouring Azerbaijan. Since 1994, a ceasefire has been in place, but tensions remain very high between the two countries. Although the country's economy had one of the world's fastest growth rates in the past few years, this comes following a low base and many years of near-continuous recession. Still, Armenia, being ranked 28th, is ahead of a number of EU member nations such as Austria, France, Portugal and Italy in the 2008 Index of Economic Freedom.

The Metsamor nuclear power plant, which is situated some 40km west of Yerevan, is built on top of an active seismic zone and is a matter of negotiation between Armenia and the EU. Towards the end of 2007, Armenia approved a plan to shut down the Metsamor plant in compliance with the New European Neighborhood Policy Action Plan. This is likely to take place by 2016 when the operating term of the Metsamor facility expires.

Azerbaijan

Main article: Azerbaijan and the European Union

Azerbaijan, a majority-Shia Muslim but secular country with a Turkic population, would need to overcome several obstacles in order to be considered a potential EU candidate. The oil-rich country has made improvements to its infrastructure but much of the money from its very high GDP growth still does not seem to find its way into the lower echelons of society, despite being larger and more technologically modernised than its neighbors. Its economy is also suffering from the "Dutch disease," as oil is becoming its primary export, rendering the manufacturing sector less competitive. Corruption is another serious issue and recent presidential elections in Azerbaijan were disputed by the opposition and have been criticised for not being free, fair or democratic by international observers. The country also needs to resolve the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh with neighbouring Armenia. Azerbaijan's vast military spending and the warlike rhetoric of the country's leadership are becoming somewhat of an alarm to the EU, which wishes to ease tensions in the area.

These are the main obstacles ahead of a possible EU application from Azerbaijan. The country itself has not expressed a desire to join the EU but it is not unreasonable to assume that integration could be delayed, with Azerbaijan likely facing difficulties similar to Turkey's.

Russia

Main article: European Union-Russia Common Spaces

Among the most vocal supporters of closer ties between Russia and the EU has been Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. In an article published to Italian media on 26 May 2002 he said that the next step in Russia's growing integration with the West should be EU membership. More recently, on 17 November 2005, he commented in regards to the prospect of such a membership that he is "convinced that even if it is a dream ... it is not too distant a dream and I think it will happen one day." Berlusconi has made similar comments on other occasions as well.

At present, however, the prospect of Russia joining the EU any time in the near future is slim. Analysts have commented that Russia is "decades away" from qualifying for EU membership. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has also said that though Russia must "find its place both in NATO, and, in the longer term, in the European Union, and if conditions are created for this to happen" that such a thing is not economically feasible in the near future.

Former Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia joining the EU would not be in the interests of either Russia or the EU, although he advocated close integration in various dimensions including establishment of four common spaces between Russia and the EU, including united economic, educational and scientific spaces as it was declared in the agreement in 2003.

The Kaliningrad exclave is still a problem between the EU and Russia as well as the fact that Russia and Estonia have not yet ratified a border treaty.

In October 2008, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said "I consider Russia to be a Western country and my plan is for the Russian Federation to be able to become a member of the European Union in the coming years" and stated that he had this vision for years. Russian permanent representative to the EU Vladimir Chizhov commented on this by saying that Russia has no plans of joining the EU.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, which has a portion of its territory in Europe, is considered a European nation by the Council of Europe, as expressed in an official CoE statement in 1999 and therefore qualifies for full membership in the CoE. Despite this, the subject of joining the EU has not yet been even remotely discussed.

The Kazakh Foreign Ministry has also expressed interest in the European Neighbourhood Policy. Some MEPs have also discussed Kazakhstan's inclusion in the ENP. Kazakhstan's President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, has also proposed a Central Asian Union as an alternative to EU membership.

Microstates

Main article: Microstates and the European Union

The five European microstates bordered by the European Union

There are three very small European microstates that are bordered only by the European Union — San Marino, Vatican City and Monaco — and use and mint their own euro coins. Andorra, also surrounded by the EU, uses the euro but does not mint coins. Their economies have always been tightly related with their neighbours. However, their existence as sovereign nations is tightly bound up with their special economic laws which are not compatible with EU standards.

San Marino

The left-wing opposition Popular Alliance has been reported to be in favour of joining the EU, which the ruling San Marinese Christian Democratic Party opposes.

Andorra

The government has said that "for the time being" there is no need to join the EU; however, the opposition Social Democratic Party are in favour.

Monaco

Monaco currently applies certain policies of the European Union through its special relationship with France, a member state. Monaco is a full part of the EU's customs territory, and applies most EU measures relating to VAT and excise duties. Monaco is a full member of the Schengen area and the eurozone and has implemented the EU Directive on the taxation of savings interest. Monaco joined the Council of Europe in 2004, a move that required it to renegotiate its relations with France, which previously had the right to nominate various ministers. This was seen as part of a general move toward Europe.

One concern is that, unlike the constitutional monarchies within the EU (United Kingdom, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Spain), the Prince of Monaco has considerable executive powers and is not merely a figurehead. These powers would have to be rescinded in order for Monaco to be fully democratic, which is a precondition for admission to the EU.

Dependencies of EU member states

There are multiple Special member state territories, some of them are not fully covered by the EU treaties and apply EU law only partially, if at all. See also the territories not covered by the Schengen treaty. It is possible for a dependency to change its status regarding the EU and/or some particular treaty or law provision. The territory may change its status from participation to leaving or from being outside to joining.

Greenland

Main article: Greenland and the European Union

Denmark's Greenland is a well-known example for a member state special territory that changed its status in regard to coverage of EU treaties and laws. After the establishment of Greenland's home rule in 1979 (effective from 1980), a second referendum on membership was held, where the people decided to leave the community. On 1 February 1985, Greenland left the EEC and EURATOM. Danish nationals residing in Greenland (i.e. all native population) are nonetheless fully European citizens; they are not, however, entitled to vote in European elections.

There has been some speculation as to whether Greenland may consider rejoining the European Union. On 4 January 2007 the Danish daily Jyllands-Posten quoted the former Danish minister for Greenland, Tom Høyem, as saying "I would not be surprised if Greenland again becomes a member of the EU... The EU needs the Arctic window and Greenland cannot alone manage the gigantic Arctic possibilities".

Faroe Islands

The Faroe Islands, an autonomous region of the Kingdom of Denmark, are not part of the EU, as explicitly asserted by both Rome treaties. The relations with the EU are governed by a Fisheries Agreement (1977) and a Free Trade Agreement (1991, revised 1998). The main reason for remaining outside the EU is disagreements about the Common Fisheries Policy.

Nevertheless, there are politicians, mainly in the right-wing Unionist Party (Sambandsflokkurin), led by their chairman Kaj Leo Johannesen, who would like to see the Faroes as a member of the EU. However, the chairman of the Republican Party (Tjóðveldisflokkurin), Høgni Hoydal, has expressed concerns that if the Faroes were to join the EU as is, they might vanish inside the EU and wants the local government to solve the political situation between the Faroes and Denmark first.

On 26 September 2008, Kaj Leo Johannesen became Prime Minister of the Faroe Islands, and according to him his new government is actively going to seek a progressive Europe-policy, even stating that membership of the EU in a strong possibility.

UK Sovereign Base Areas

The UK Sovereign Base Areas, Akrotiri and Dhekelia on Cyprus did not join the European Union when the United Kingdom joined. Cyprus' Accession Treaty specifically stated that this would not change with the accession of Cyprus to the European Union. However, currently, some provisions of the EU Law are applicable there - mainly border management, food safety and free movement of people and goods.

UK Crown Dependencies

Special terms were negotiated for the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man on the UK’s accession to the European Economic Community. These are contained in Protocol 3 to the Treaty of Accession 1973. The effect of the protocol is that the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man are within the Common Customs Area and the Common External Tariff (i.e. they enjoy access to European Union countries of physical exports without tariff barriers). Other Community rules do not apply to the Islands.

Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guyana, and Réunion

The territories of Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guiana, and Réunion are overseas departments of France and at the same time mono-departmental overseas regions. In other words, they are integral parts of France in the same way Hawaii is of the United States. According to the EC treaty (article 299 2), overseas departments are outermost regions (OMR) - hence provisions of the EC treaty apply there while derogations are allowed.

New Caledonia

New Caledonia has a unique status inside France and is not even a collectivité territoriale, unlike all other French subdivisions. Currently, in regard to the EU, it is one of the Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT) and thus the EU Law does not apply there.

As a result of the 1998 Nouméa Accord, New Caledonians will vote on an independence referendum scheduled between 2014 and 2019 . This referendum will determine whether the territory remains a part of the French Republic as a "sui generis collectivity", or whether it will become an independent nation. The accords also specify a gradual devolution of powers to the local New Caledonian assembly.

Netherlands Antilles and Aruba

Main article: Accession of the Netherlands Antilles to the European Union

On 15 December 2008, The Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius will become part of the Netherlands as special municipalities. The government of the Netherlands is currently investigating the consequences of a change of status within the European Union for these islands. The Netherlands Antilles are currently part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (as are the two countries Aruba and the Netherlands per se) and they are an Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT) entity, listed under Annex II of the EC treaty. OCTs are not considered part of the EU and EU law does not apply there. The islands are opting to become an outermost region of the EU, the same status the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands and the French overseas departments have.

European commissioner Danuta Hübner has said before the European Parliament that she doesn't expect many problems to occur with such a status change, as the islands' population only consists of some 30,000 people. As the islands are currently listed in an Annex of the Treaty of Rome, the treaty needs to be changed before the new status can take effect. Under the proposed Treaty of Lisbon, Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten could change their status to outermost region by means of a unanimous decision of the European Council:

Article 311 shall be repealed. A new Article 311a shall be inserted, with the wording of Article 299(2), first subparagraph, and Article 299(3) to (6); the text shall be amended as follows:
[...]
(e) the following new paragraph shall be added at the end of the Article:
"6. The European Council may, on the initiative of the Member State concerned, adopt a decision amending the status, with regard to the Union, of a Danish, French or Netherlands country or territory referred to in paragraphs 1 and 2. The European Council shall act unanimously after consulting the Commission."

— Treaty of Lisbon Article 2, point 293

Northern Cyprus

Officially, the island nation Cyprus is part of the European Union, under the de jure sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus. Turkish Cypriots are citizens of the Republic of Cyprus and thus of the European Union, and were entitled to vote in the 2004 European Parliament election (though only a few hundred registered). The EU's acquis communautaire is suspended indefinitely in the northern third of the island, which has remained outside the control of the Republic of Cyprus since the Turkish invasion of 1974. The Greek Cypriot community rejected the Annan Plan for the settlement of the Cyprus dispute in a referendum on 24 April 2004. Had the referendum been in favour of the settlement proposal, the island (excluding the British Sovereign Base Areas) would have joined the European Union as the United Cyprus Republic.

The European Union's relations with the Turkish Cypriot Community are handled by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Enlargement.

Non-European states

EU neighbouring countries:

  European Union

  Official candidates

  European Neighbourhood Policy

In the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49), it is stated that any European country (as defined by the EU political assessment) that respects the principles of the European Union may apply to join. No mention is made of enlarging the EU to include non-European countries, but the precedents of turning down Morocco's application and speaking about Israel's closest integration, "just short of full membership" suggests that currently it is impossible for non-European states to get full EU membership.

Despite such precedents, Cape Verde has expressed its desire to join the EU and some Canadians have desired membership, though in a more tongue-in-cheek manner than Cape Verde.

However, some non-European states have different degrees of integration with the EU stipulated by agreements, always short of membership. Alternatively such countries could be integrated into a larger regional block or an overlapping block such as Nicolas Sarkozy's proposal to create a Mediterranean Union, or a lesser organisation such as the Euro-Mediterranean free trade area. The current frameworks for development of such agreements are the Barcelona process and the European Neighbourhood Policy.

Morocco

Main article: Morocco and the European Union

Morocco submitted an application to join the EU (then EEC) in July 1987, but it was rejected by the European Council later in the year on the grounds that it "did not consider Morocco a European country". Although there are factors such as the developing economy or unresolved border issues with several of its neighbours and the occupation of Western Sahara, a European Union Association Agreement similar to that applied to Tunisia and Algeria is implemented between Morocco and the EU. The Moroccan government argues that a substantial amount of its territory is already part of the European Union, specifically Spanish enclaves in Northern Africa that Morocco says is occupied territory.

Israel

Main article: Israel and the European Union

The principle of Israel joining the European Union has been supported by some politicians in both Israel and Europe, including the former Israeli Foreign Minister. Silvan Shalom, former Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Avigdor Lieberman and the Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi Two Italian MEPs are currently campaigning in favour of Israeli membership. An opinion poll in 2004 showed that 85% of Israelis would support an application for membership.

The Israeli government has hinted several times that an EU membership bid is a possibility, but the EU itself proposes instead the closest possible integration "just short of full membership." Faster advancement of such plans is somewhat hampered by the current instability in the Middle East and conflicts in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Lebanon. European public opinion of some of Israel's policies - especially those related to the aforementioned areas of conflict is, in general, poor.

The European Council has not been asked to take a stance regarding whether or not Israel is a European state, but similar circumstances to Morocco (being geographically outside Europe and without exceptional features such as CoE membership) will most likely preclude its inclusion as a full member into the EU as well. However, it can obtain a large degree of integration through the current and future EU Neighbourhood Policies — the Spanish foreign minister Miguel Ángel Moratinos spoke out for a "privileged partnership, offering all the benefits of EU membership, without participation in the institutions". On 11 January 2005, industry commissioner and vice president of the commission Günter Verheugen even suggested the possibility of a monetary union and common market with Israel.

An argument [6] for the inclusion of Israel into the EU as a full member is that it has a mostly "European" (or perhaps Europeanised) culture and thus forms an exclave in a largely Arab region. Israel also has a GDP per capita similar to many European countries. Allowing Israel into the EU would create a precedent for other geographically non-European countries to apply for membership.

Cape Verde

Main article: Cape Verde and the European Union

Cape Verde is an island nation of the Atlantic Ocean and formerly a Portuguese colony. In March 2005 former Portuguese president Mário Soares launched a petition urging the European Union to start membership talks with it, saying that Cape Verde could act as a bridge between Africa, Latin America and the EU.

Cape Verde's per capita GDP is lower than any of the current member states, accession countries, or candidate countries. However, it is higher than that of some of the EU-designated "potential candidate countries" of the Western Balkans. Most of the imports and exports of Cape Verde are from and to the European Union, and it has a service-based economy. Its currency, the escudo, is pegged to the euro.

Although the Cape Verde archipelago is geographically in Africa, there have been similar situations before. Cyprus is an island nation which, despite being geographically in Asia, has already joined both the Council of Europe and the EU. Furthermore, the Cape Verde islands are part of the same island group as the Canary Islands (part of Spain) and Madeira Islands (part of Portugal), known as Macaronesia. There is currently no political recognition by the EU of Cape Verde as a European state, but unlike in the case of Morocco, there is no formal rejection either.

Recently Cape Verde has been distancing itself from its regional African partners and forging closer ties with the EU. In a move signaling its preparation to loosen ties with the West African regional bloc, the government of Cape Verde in September 2006 declared its intentions on suspending the ECOWAS free movement of goods and trade. Prime Minister José Maria Neves announced that his country will start imposing restrictions on the entrance of citizens from all ECOWAS member states. This is also an effort to limit the recent rise of illegal immigration of other West African nationals using Cape Verde and its proximity to the Canary Islands as a springboard towards Europe.

See also

• Member State of the European Union
• Enlargement of the European Union
• Countries bordering the European Union

External links

• Enlargement – Europa
• European Union Member States and applicant countries – European NAvigator