2020 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions

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I gave two sources speculating she would run. Please stop removing her. She is a serious speculative candidate. It's actually unprofessional and wrong to remove her when she is a serious speculative candidate
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* [[Bill de Blasio]], [[Mayor of New York City]] since 2014<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/25/1604148/-NYC-Mayor-Teaches-Democrats-How-To-Fight-Trump|title=NYC Mayor Teaches Democrats How To Fight Trump.|date=November 25, 2016|work=[[Daily Kos]]|accessdate=March 5, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/bill-de-blasio-trump-new-york-214513|title=Did Trump Save Bill de Blasio’s Career?|date=December 11, 2016|first=David|last=Freedlander|work=[[Politico]]|accessdate=March 5, 2017}}</ref>
* [[Bill de Blasio]], [[Mayor of New York City]] since 2014<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/25/1604148/-NYC-Mayor-Teaches-Democrats-How-To-Fight-Trump|title=NYC Mayor Teaches Democrats How To Fight Trump.|date=November 25, 2016|work=[[Daily Kos]]|accessdate=March 5, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/bill-de-blasio-trump-new-york-214513|title=Did Trump Save Bill de Blasio’s Career?|date=December 11, 2016|first=David|last=Freedlander|work=[[Politico]]|accessdate=March 5, 2017}}</ref>
* [[John Bel Edwards]], [[Governor of Louisiana]] since 2016; Minority Leader of the [[Louisiana House of Representatives]] 2012–2015<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://louisianaradionetwork.com/blogs/republican_politicians_rumored_considered_trumps_cabinet#.WMJL8IgrLnC|title=Republican politicians rumored to be considered for President-elect Trump's cabinet|date=November 22, 2016|work=[[Louisiana Radio Network]]|accessdate=March 10, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://973thedawg.com/louisiana-governor-to-run-for-president/|title=Louisiana Governor To Run For President?|date=November 22, 2016|first=Bruce|last=Mikells|work=[[KMDL]]|accessdate=November 27, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/president-john-bel-edwards-d-la_us_58aa267ee4b0b0e1e0e20cd1|title=President John Bel Edwards (D-LA)|date=February 19, 2017|first=Michael|last=Jones|work=[[The Huffington Post]]|accessdate=February 21, 2017}}</ref>
* [[John Bel Edwards]], [[Governor of Louisiana]] since 2016; Minority Leader of the [[Louisiana House of Representatives]] 2012–2015<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://louisianaradionetwork.com/blogs/republican_politicians_rumored_considered_trumps_cabinet#.WMJL8IgrLnC|title=Republican politicians rumored to be considered for President-elect Trump's cabinet|date=November 22, 2016|work=[[Louisiana Radio Network]]|accessdate=March 10, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://973thedawg.com/louisiana-governor-to-run-for-president/|title=Louisiana Governor To Run For President?|date=November 22, 2016|first=Bruce|last=Mikells|work=[[KMDL]]|accessdate=November 27, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/president-john-bel-edwards-d-la_us_58aa267ee4b0b0e1e0e20cd1|title=President John Bel Edwards (D-LA)|date=February 19, 2017|first=Michael|last=Jones|work=[[The Huffington Post]]|accessdate=February 21, 2017}}</ref>
* [[Tulsi Gabbard]], [[United States House of Representative|U.S. Representative]] since 2013<ref>https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/09/11-democratic-women-who-could-run-for-president-in-2020-ranked/?utm_term=.442e5db5b058</ref><ref>https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/11/16/candidates-who-could-run-democrats-and-republicans/hxdFmFwXHg64rEEaIgKa9I/story.html</ref>
* [[Bob Iger]], businessman from [[California]]<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/rambling-reporter/will-disneys-bob-iger-run-president-2020-hollywood-friends-are-nudging-981626|title=Will Disney's Bob Iger Run for President in 2020? Hollywood Friends Are Nudging|date=March 1, 2017|last=Siegel|first=Tatiana|work=[[The Hollywood Reporter]]|accessdate=March 2, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.businessinsider.com/disney-ceo-bob-iger-presidential-run-in-2020-2017-3|title=Disney CEO Bob Iger is reportedly considering a presidential run in 2020|date=March 1, 2017|last=Nededog|first=Jethro|work=[[Business Insider]]|accessdate=March 2, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.indiewire.com/2017/03/bob-iger-president-2020-1201788883/|title=Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, May Run for President in 2020|date=March 1, 2017|first=Michael|last=Nordine|work=[[IndieWire]]|accessdate=March 10, 2017}}</ref>
* [[Bob Iger]], businessman from [[California]]<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/rambling-reporter/will-disneys-bob-iger-run-president-2020-hollywood-friends-are-nudging-981626|title=Will Disney's Bob Iger Run for President in 2020? Hollywood Friends Are Nudging|date=March 1, 2017|last=Siegel|first=Tatiana|work=[[The Hollywood Reporter]]|accessdate=March 2, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.businessinsider.com/disney-ceo-bob-iger-presidential-run-in-2020-2017-3|title=Disney CEO Bob Iger is reportedly considering a presidential run in 2020|date=March 1, 2017|last=Nededog|first=Jethro|work=[[Business Insider]]|accessdate=March 2, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.indiewire.com/2017/03/bob-iger-president-2020-1201788883/|title=Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, May Run for President in 2020|date=March 1, 2017|first=Michael|last=Nordine|work=[[IndieWire]]|accessdate=March 10, 2017}}</ref>
* [[Jason Kander]], [[Secretary of State of Missouri]] 2013–2017; Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in [[United States Senate election in Missouri, 2016|2016]]<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article118072778.html|title=Look where Jason Kander is going|date=November 30, 2016|first=Steve|last=Kraske|work=[[The Kansas City Star]]|accessdate=December 12, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://fox2now.com/2016/11/30/missouri-secretary-of-states-travel-itinerary-raises-eyebrows/|title=Missouri Secretary of State’s travel itinerary raises eyebrows|date=November 30, 2016|first=Gregg|last=Palermo|work=[[KTVI]]|accessdate=March 10, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://forward.com/news/national/355832/jason-kander-iowa-bound-does-the-jewish-pol-have-presidential-ambitions/|title=Is Jason Kander Dreaming of Being Your First Jewish President?|date=December 1, 2016|first=Nathan|last=Guttman|work=[[The Forward]]|accessdate=December 2, 2016}}</ref>
* [[Jason Kander]], [[Secretary of State of Missouri]] 2013–2017; Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in [[United States Senate election in Missouri, 2016|2016]]<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article118072778.html|title=Look where Jason Kander is going|date=November 30, 2016|first=Steve|last=Kraske|work=[[The Kansas City Star]]|accessdate=December 12, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://fox2now.com/2016/11/30/missouri-secretary-of-states-travel-itinerary-raises-eyebrows/|title=Missouri Secretary of State’s travel itinerary raises eyebrows|date=November 30, 2016|first=Gregg|last=Palermo|work=[[KTVI]]|accessdate=March 10, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://forward.com/news/national/355832/jason-kander-iowa-bound-does-the-jewish-pol-have-presidential-ambitions/|title=Is Jason Kander Dreaming of Being Your First Jewish President?|date=December 1, 2016|first=Nathan|last=Guttman|work=[[The Forward]]|accessdate=December 2, 2016}}</ref>
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File:Bill de Blasio 11-2-2013.jpg|{{center|[[Mayor of New York City|Mayor]]<br>'''[[Bill de Blasio]]'''<br>from [[New York (state)|New York]]}}
File:Bill de Blasio 11-2-2013.jpg|{{center|[[Mayor of New York City|Mayor]]<br>'''[[Bill de Blasio]]'''<br>from [[New York (state)|New York]]}}
File:John Bel Edwards.jpg|{{center|[[Governor of Louisiana|Governor]]<br>'''[[John Bel Edwards]]'''<br>of [[Louisiana]]}}
File:John Bel Edwards.jpg|{{center|[[Governor of Louisiana|Governor]]<br>'''[[John Bel Edwards]]'''<br>of [[Louisiana]]}}
File:Tulsi Gabbard, official portrait, 113th Congress.jpg|{{center|[[United States House of Represenatives|U.S. Representative]]<br>'''[[Tulsi Gabbard]]'''<br>of [[Hawaii]]}}
File:BobIgerHWOFJune2013.jpg|{{center|'''[[Bob Iger]]'''<br>from [[California]]}}
File:BobIgerHWOFJune2013.jpg|{{center|'''[[Bob Iger]]'''<br>from [[California]]}}
File:Jason Kander.jpg|{{center|Former [[Secretary of State of Missouri|State Secretary of State]]<br>'''[[Jason Kander]]'''<br>of [[Missouri]]}}
File:Jason Kander.jpg|{{center|Former [[Secretary of State of Missouri|State Secretary of State]]<br>'''[[Jason Kander]]'''<br>of [[Missouri]]}}

Revision as of 01:25, 15 March 2017

United States presidential election, 2020
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The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census. The 2020 election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; the subsequent two elections will use information from the as yet-to-be-collected 2020 United States Census.
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or re-elect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

Barring any major change in circumstances, Republican Donald Trump, who was elected in 2016, will be eligible to seek re-election. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Background

President Donald Trump will be able to seek re-election.

Procedure

Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]

Demographic trends

The age group of what will then be persons in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket, including the entirety of the millennial generation for the first time, is expected to represent 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.[2]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[3] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[4]

Advantage of incumbency

An incumbent President seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

General election polling

Trump vs. Cuban
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Mark Cuban Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5] 941 February 21–22, 2017 ± 3.2% 41% 40% 19%
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Elizabeth Warren Undecided
Politico/Morning Consult[6] 1,791 February 9–10, 2017 ± 2% 42% 36% 22%
Trump vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Democratic Candidate Undecided
Politico/Morning Consult[6] 1,791 February 9–10, 2017 ± 2% 35% 43% 22%

Republican Party

Further information: Republican Party (United States)

Donald Trump is eligible to run for re-election and has implied that he intends to do so.[7] On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter[8] as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[9]

Below are other Republican candidates that may or will run in 2020:

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Jack Fellure 		October 3, 1931
(age 92)
Midkiff, West Virginia 		Prohibition nominee for President in 2012
Candidate for President 1988–2008 and 2016
West Virginia 		November 9, 2016 [10]

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Speculative candidates

Potential convention sites

Democratic Party

Further information: Democratic Party (United States)

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Rocky De La Fuente 		October 10, 1954
(age 69)
San Diego, California 		American Delta and Reform
nominee for President in 2016
Florida 		January 9, 2017 [22]

Geoffrey Fieger 		December 23, 1950
(age 73)
Detroit, Michigan 		Attorney
Michigan 		January 13, 2017 [23]

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

Potential convention sites

National polling

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Joe Biden Cory Booker Sherrod Brown Julian Castro Hillary Clinton Andrew Cuomo Al Franken Kirsten Gillibrand Tim Kaine Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Others Undecided
Rasmussen[114] 1,000 February 8–9, 2017 ± 3% 15% 8% – – 17% – 6% – – 20% 16% 0% 20%
Public Policy Polling[115] 400 December 6–7, 2016 ± 4.9% 31% 4% 2% 0% – 2% 3% 3% – 24% 16% – 14%
Politico/Morning Consult[116] 1,989 October 5–6, 2016 ± 2% – 5% – – – 6% – – 10% – 16% 8% 54%

Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates

Libertarian Party

Further information: Libertarian Party (United States)

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Adam Kokesh 		February 1, 1982
(age 42)
San Francisco, California 		Political activist
Arizona 		July 22, 2013 [117][118][119]

Speculative candidates

Green Party

Further information: Green Party of the United States

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

Independent or unaffiliated

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref Notes

Jeremy Gable		 May 10, 1982
(age 42)
Lakenheath, England		 Playwright
Pennsylvania
May 11, 2015
 [122] Not a natural born citizen

Dan Rattiner		 1939
(age Error: Need valid year, month, day)
New York City, New York		 Journalist
Newspaper publisher
New York
April 24, 2015
 [123]

Jeffrey Sharp		 Birth date unknown Producer
Publishing entrepreneur
California
December 8, 2016
 [124]

Kanye West 		June 8, 1977
(age 46)
Atlanta, Georgia 		Rapper
Songwriter
Record producer
Fashion designer
Entrepreneur
California 		August 30, 2015 [125]

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

See also

References

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  2. ^ Weeks, Linton (January 25, 2013). "Forget 2016. The Pivotal Year In Politics May Be 2020". National Public Radio. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  3. ^ Campbell, James E. (March 1986). "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections". The American Political Science Review. 80 (1): 45. JSTOR 1957083.
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  5. ^ "Trump Badly Losing His Fights With Media" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
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  7. ^ Westwood, Sarah (January 22, 2017). "Trump hints at re-election bid, vowing 'eight years' of 'great things'". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved February 21, 2017.
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  48. ^ Freedlander, David (December 11, 2016). "Did Trump Save Bill de Blasio's Career?". Politico. Retrieved March 5, 2017.
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  51. ^ Jones, Michael (February 19, 2017). "President John Bel Edwards (D-LA)". The Huffington Post. Retrieved February 21, 2017.
  52. ^ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/09/11-democratic-women-who-could-run-for-president-in-2020-ranked/?utm_term=.442e5db5b058
  53. ^ https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/11/16/candidates-who-could-run-democrats-and-republicans/hxdFmFwXHg64rEEaIgKa9I/story.html
  54. ^ Siegel, Tatiana (March 1, 2017). "Will Disney's Bob Iger Run for President in 2020? Hollywood Friends Are Nudging". The Hollywood Reporter. Retrieved March 2, 2017.
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