COVID-19 recession: Difference between revisions

Coronavirus recession
	Image of the ongoing effects of the recession, showing the retraction in global economies
Date	April 2020 - ongoing
Type	Global recession
Cause	COVID-19 pandemic-induced market instability; Failure to renew an OPEC+ deal; Corporate debt bubble; Market liquidity crisis; Economic slowdown;
Outcome	Sharp rise in unemployment; Collapse of the tourism industry; Collapse of the hospitality industry; Collapse of the price of oil; Destabilization and collapse of the energy industry; Increase in government debt; Major downturn in consumerism;

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Revision as of 11:47, 16 April 2020

Coronavirus recession, more commonly known as The Great Lockdown,^[1] is an ongoing severe global economic recession which began affecting the world economy in early to mid 2020.^[2]^[3]^[4] The recession is considered to be the steepest economic downturn since the Great Depression.^[5] On the 14th of April 2020, the IMF reported that all of the G7 nations had already entered or were entering into what was called a 'deep recession', alongside most of the western world with significant slowdown of growth across developing and emerging economies.^[6] The IMF has stated that the economic decline is 'far worse' than that of the Great Recession in 2009.^[7]^[8]

The recession began during the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic.^[9]^[10]^[11] The pandemic caused the largest global lockdown ever in human history, with more than a third of the global population at the time being placed on lockdown.^[12] This caused severe economic repercussions as economies across the world had to enter into a 'lockdown' to stop the spread of COVID-19.^[13] The lockdown occurred on top of an 'economic slowdown' during 2019, which saw the stagnation of stock markets and consumerism worldwide.^[14]^[15]

As of April 2020, the recession has seen staggering unemployment and the collapse of multiple state-funded beneficiaries for unemployed adults.^[16]^[17] The UN predicts that global unemployment will result in nearly 7% of the worker population being unemployed, and considers two billion jobs to be 'at risk'.^[18] In western nations, unemployment is expected to be at around 10%, with more severely affected nations from the coronavirus pandemic having higher unemployment rates.^[19]^[20]^[21]^[22]

The recession saw the collapse of the price of oil triggered by the 2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war, the collapse of the tourism industry, hospitality industry, energy industry and a significant downturn in consumerism in comparison to the previous decade.^[23]^[24]^[25] Global stock markets crashed around 20 to 30% respectively during late February and March in 2020. During the crash, global stock markets made unprecedented and volatile swings, mainly due to extreme uncertainty in the markets.^[26]^[27]^[28]

Though it's still too early to determine the exact causes, economists have looked at several factors which have either made the recession worse or was a reason for the recession to occur at all. Coming out of 2019, the global economy was weakened by a general global slowdown, which saw consumerism and manufacturing deteriorate throughout the world. The rise of protectionist leaders has also led to a slowdown of globalization.

Background

Corporate debt bubble

Since the Financial crisis of 2007–08, there has been a large increase in corporate indebtedness, rising from 84% of gross world product in 2009 to 92% in 2019, or about $72 trillion.^[29]^[30]

2019 global economic slowdown

During 2019, the IMF reported that the world economy was going through a 'synchronized slowdown', which entered into it's slowest pace since the Great Financial Crisis.^[31] 'Cracks' were showing in the consumer market as global markets began to suffer through a 'sharp deterioration' of Manufacturing activity.^[32] Global growth was believed to have peaked in 2017, when the world's total industrial output began to start a sustained decline in early 2018.^[33] The IMF blamed 'heightened trade and geopolitical tensions' as the main reason for the slowdown, citing Brexit and the China – United States trade war as primary reasons for slowdown in 2019, while other economists blamed liquidity issues.^[34]^[35]

In April 2019, the U.S yield curve inverted, which sparked fears of a 2020 recession across the world.^[36] The inverted yield curve and trade war fears prompted a sell-off in global stock markets during March 2019, which prompted more fears that a recession was imminent.^[37] Rising debt levels in the European Union and the United States had always being a concern for economists, however in 2019 that concern was hightened during the economic slowdown, and economists began warning of a 'debt bomb' occurring during the next economic crisis. Debt in 2019 was 50% higher then that during the height of the Great Financial Crisis.^[38] Economists have argued that this increased debt is what led to debt default's in economies and businesses across the world during the recession.^[39]^[40]

Sino-American trade war

The China – United States trade war occurred during 2018 to early 2020, and caused significant damage across global economies.^[41] President Donald Trump in 2018 began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the goal of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. says are "unfair trade practices".^[42] Among those trade practices and their effects are the growing trade deficit, the theft of intellectual property, and the forced transfer of American technology to China.^[43]

In the United States, the trade war brought struggles for farmers and manufacturers and higher prices for consumers, which resulted in the U.S manufacturing industry entering into a 'mild recession' during 2019.^[44] In other countries it has also caused economic damage, though some countries have benefited from increased manufacturing to fill the gaps. It has also led to stock market instability. The governments of several countries, including China and the United States, have taken steps to address some of the damage caused by a deterioration in China–United States relations and tit-for-tat tariffs.^[45]^[46]^[47]^[48]

During the recession, the downturn of consumerism and manufacturing from the trade war is believed to have inflated the economic crisis.^[49]^[50]

Brexit

In Europe, economies were hampered by the economic effects of Brexit. British and EU growth stagnated during 2019 which was partially due to Brexit, mainly due to uncertainty around the crisis.^[51] The United Kingdom experienced a 'near recession' in 2019, which weakened the strength of the British economy when entering into 2020. Many businesses left the United Kingdom to move into the EU, which resulted in trade loss and economic downturn for both EU members and Britain.^[52]^[53]^[54]^[55]

Causes

The recession started during the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic, the single most impactful pandemic since the Spanish flu in 1918.^[56] It was caused by social distancing measures taken in response to pandemic, which caused a "Great Lockdown" of the world economy.^[1]

Coronavirus Pandemic

The 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic is an ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) The outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, declared to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020, and recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on 11 March 2020.^[57]^[58] The pandemic has led to severe global socioeconomic disruption,^[59] the postponement or cancellation of sporting, religious, political and cultural events,^[60] and widespread shortages of supplies exacerbated by panic buying.^[61]^[62] Schools, universities and colleges have closed either on a nationwide or local basis in 63 countries, affecting approximately 47 percent of the world's student population. Many governments have restricted or advised against all non-essential travel to and from countries and areas affected by the outbreak.^[63] However, the virus is already spreading within communities in large parts of the world, with many not knowing where or how they were infected.^[64]

Scanning electron microscope image of SARS-CoV-2 (centre, yellow)

The 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic has had far-reaching consequences beyond the spread of the disease and efforts to quarantine it. As the pandemic has spread around the globe, concerns have shifted from supply-side manufacturing issues to decreased business in the services sector.^[65] The pandemic is considered unanimously as a major factor in causing the recession. The Pandemic has affected nearly every major industry negatively, was one of the main causes of the stock market crash and has resulted in major curbing's of social liberties and movement.^[66]^[67]^[68]^[69]^[70]

Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war

The reduction in the demand for travel and the lack of factory activity due to the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic significantly impacted demand for oil, causing its price to fall.^[71] The Russian-Saudi Arabia oil price war become a cause in worsening the recession due to it crashing the price of oil. In mid-February, the International Energy Agency forecasted that oil demand growth in 2020 would be the smallest since 2011.^[72] Chinese demand slump resulted in a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to discuss a potential cut in production to balance the loss in demand.^[73] The cartel initially made a tentative agreement to cut oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day following a meeting in Vienna on 5 March 2020, which would bring the production levels to the lowest it has been since the Iraq War.^[74]

After OPEC and Russia failed to agree on oil production cuts on 6 March and Saudi Arabia and Russia both announced increases in oil production on 7 March, oil prices fell by 25 percent.^[75]^[76] On 8 March, Saudi Arabia unexpectedly announced that it would increase production of crude oil and sell it at a discount (of $6–8 a barrel) to customers in Asia, the US, and Europe, following the breakdown of negotiations as Russia resisted calls to cut production. The biggest discounts targeted Russian oil customers in northwestern Europe.^[77]

Prior to the announcement, the price of oil had gone down by more than 30% since the start of the year, and upon Saudi Arabia's announcement it dropped a further 30 percent, though later recovered somewhat.^[78]^[79] Brent Crude, used to price two-thirds of the world's crude oil supplies, experienced the largest drop since the 1991 Gulf War on the night of 8 March. Also, the price of West Texas Intermediate fell to its lowest level since February 2016.^[80] Energy expert Bob McNally noted, "This is the first time since 1930 and '31 that a massive negative demand shock has coincided with a supply shock;"^[81] in that case it was the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act precipitating a collapse in international trade during the Great Depression, coinciding with discovery of the East Texas Oil Field during the Texas oil boom. Fears of the Russian–Saudi Arabian oil price war caused a plunge in U.S. stocks, and have had a particular impact on American producers of shale oil.^[82]

Financial crisis

The global stock market crash began on 20 February 2020.^[83]^[84]^[85] Due to the Coronavirus Pandemic, global markets, banks and bussinesses were all facing crisis not seen since the Great Depression in 1929.

From 24 to 28 February, stock markets worldwide reported their largest one-week declines since the 2008 financial crisis,^[86]^[87]^[88] thus entering a correction.^[89]^[90]^[91] Global markets into early March became extremely volatile, with large swings occurring in global markets.^[92]^[93] On 9 March, most global markets reported severe contractions, mainly in response to the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic and an oil price war between Russia and the OPEC countries led by Saudi Arabia.^[94]^[95] This became colloquially known as Black Monday I, and at the time was the worst drop since the Great Recession in 2008.^[96]^[97]

Three days after Black Monday I there was another drop, Black Thursday, where stocks across Europe and North America fell more than 9%. Wall Street experienced its largest single-day percentage drop since Black Monday in 1987, and the FTSE MIB of the Borsa Italiana fell nearly 17%, becoming the worst-hit market during Black Thursday.^[98]^[99]^[100] Despite a temporary rally on 13 March (with markets posting their best day since 2008), all three Wall Street indexes fell more than 12% when markets re-opened on 16 March.^[101]^[102] During this time, one benchmark stock market index in all G7 countries and 14 of the G20 countries had been declared to be in bear markets.

Black Monday I (9 March)

Crash

Prior to opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures market experienced a 1,300 point drop based on the coronavirus and fall in the oil price described above, triggering a trading curb, or circuit breaker, that caused the futures market to suspend trading for 15 minutes.^[103] This predicted 1,300 point drop would establish 9 March as being among the most points the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped in a single day.^[104]^[105] When the market opened on 9 March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 1800 points on opening, 500 points lower than the prediction.^[106]

The United States' Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 2000 points,^[107] described by The News International as "the biggest ever fall in intraday trading."^[108] The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a number of trading "circuit breakers" to curb panicked selling.^[103] Oil firms Chevron and ExxonMobil fell about 15%.^[109] The NASDAQ Composite, also in the United States, lost over 620 points.^{[clarification needed]} The S&P 500 fell by 7.6%.^[110] Oil prices fell 22%,^[111] and the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell below 0.40% and 1.02% respectively.^[112] Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the day off by more than 10%.^[113] Brazil's IBOVESPA gave up 12%, erasing over 15 months of gains for the index.^[114] Australia's ASX 200 lost 7.3% – its biggest daily drop since 2008,^[115]^[116] though it rebounded later in the day. London's FTSE 100 lost 7.7%, suffering its worst drop since the 2008 financial crisis.^[117]^[118] BP and Shell Oil experienced intraday price drops of nearly 20%^[119] The FTSE MIB, CAC 40, and DAX tanked as well, with Italy affected the most as the coronavirus pandemic in the country continues. They fell 11.2%, 8.4%, and 7.9% respectively.^[120]^[121]^[122] The STOXX Europe 600 fell to more than 20% below its peak earlier in the year.^[123]

In a number of Asian markets—Japan, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia—shares declined over 20% from their most recent peaks, entering bear market territory.^[124] In Japan, the Nikkei 225 plummeted 5.1%.^[125] In Singapore, the Straits Times Index fell 6.03%.^[126] In China, the CSI 300 Index lost 3%.^[127] In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index sank 4.2%.^[128] In Pakistan, the PSX saw the largest ever intra-day plunge in the country's history, losing 2,302 points or 6.0%. The market closed with the KSE 100 index down 3.1%.^[129] In India, the BSE SENSEX closed 1,942 points lower at 35,635 while the NSE Nifty 50 was down by 538 points to 10,451.^[130]

Former George W. Bush administration energy policy advisor Bob McNally noted, "This is the first time since 1930 and ’31 that a massive negative demand shock has coincided with a supply shock;"^[131] in that case it was the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act precipitating a collapse in international trade during the Great Depression, coinciding with discovery of the East Texas Oil Field during the Texas oil boom. The Washington Post posited that coronavirus-related turmoil could spark a collapse of the corporate debt bubble, sparking and worsening a recession.^[132] The Central Bank of Russia announced that it would suspend foreign exchange market purchases in domestic markets for 30 days,^[133] while the Central Bank of Brazil auctioned an additional $3.465 billion the foreign exchange market in two separate transactions and the Bank of Mexico increased its foreign exchange auctions program from $20 billion to $30 billion.^[134]^[135] After announcing a $120 billion fiscal stimulus programs on 2 December,^[136] Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced additional government spending,^[137] while Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced additional stimulus as well.^[138]

Black Thursday (12 March)

Black Thursday^[139] was a global stock market crash on 12 March 2020, as part of the greater 2020 stock market crash. US stock markets suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall since the 1987 stock market crash.^[140] Following Black Monday three days earlier, Black Thursday was attributed to the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic and a lack of investor confidence in US President Donald Trump after he declared a 30-day travel ban against the Schengen Area.^[141] Additionally, the European Central Bank, under the lead of Christine Lagarde, decided to not cut interest rates despite market expectations,^[142] leading to a drop in S&P 500 futures of more than 200 points in less than an hour.^[143]

Bank Indonesia announced open market purchases of Rp4 trillion (or $276.53 million) in government bonds,^[144] while Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo stated that Bank Indonesia's open market purchases of government bonds had climbed to Rp130 trillion on the year and Rp110 trillion since the end of January.^[145] Despite declining to cut its deposit rate, the European Central Bank increased its asset purchases by €120 billion (or $135 billion),^[146] while the Federal Reserve announced $1.5 trillion in open market purchases.^[147] Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a A$17.6 billion fiscal stimulus package.^[148] The Reserve Bank of India announced that it would conduct a six-month $2 billion currency swap for U.S. dollars,^[149] while the Reserve Bank of Australia announced A$8.8 billion in repurchases of government bonds.^[150] The Central Bank of Brazil auctioned $1.78 billion foreign exchange spots.^[151]

Asia-Pacific stock markets closed down (with the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the IDX Composite of the Indonesia Stock Exchange falling to more than 20% below their 52-week highs),^[152]^[153]^[154] European stock markets closed down 11% (with the FTSE 100 Index on the London Stock Exchange, the DAX on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the CAC 40 on the Euronext Paris, and the FTSE MIB on the Borsa Italiana all closing more than 20% below their most recent peaks),^[155]^[156] while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down an additional 10% (eclipsing the one-day record set on 9 March), the NASDAQ Composite was down 9.4%, and the S&P 500 was down 9.5% (with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also falling to more than 20% below their peaks), and the declines activated the trading curb at the New York Stock Exchange for the second time that week.^[157]^[158] Oil prices dropped by 8%,^[159] while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities increased to 0.86% and 1.45% (and their yield curve finished normal).^[160]

Crash

The US's Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall since the 1987 stock market crash, as did the UK's FTSE 100, which fell 10.87%.^[161] The Canadian S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 12%, its largest one-day drop since 1940.^[162] The FTSE MIB Italian index closed with a −16.92% loss, the worst in its history.^[163] Germany's DAX fell 12.24% and France's CAC 12.28%.^[164] In Brazil, the Ibovespa plummeted 14.78%, after trading in the B3 was halted twice within the intraday; it also moved below the 70,000 mark before closing above it.^[165]^[166] The NIFTY 50 on the National Stock Exchange of India fell 7.89% to more than 20% below its most recent peak, while the BSE SENSEX on the Bombay Stock Exchange fell 2,919 (or 8.18%) to 32,778.^[167] The benchmark stock market index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange fell by 9.3%.^[168] The MERVAL on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange fell 9.5% to 19.5% on the week.^[169] 12 March was the second time, following 9 March drop, that the 7%-drop circuit breaker was triggered since being implemented in 2013.^[141]

In Colombia, the peso set an all-time low against the U.S. dollar, when it traded above 4000 pesos for the first time on record.^[170]^[171] The Mexican peso also set an all-time record low against the U.S. dollar, trading at 22.99 pesos.^[172] The cryptocurrency Bitcoin dropped 40%, its worst day in 7 years.^[173] Other cryptocurrencies fell sharply as well.^[174]

Black Monday II (16 March)

Over the preceding weekend, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority announced a $13 billion credit-line package to small and medium-sized companies,^[175] while South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a fiscal stimulus package.^[176] The Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds rate target to 0%–0.25%, lower reserve requirements to zero, and begin a $700 billion quantitative easing program.^[177]^[178]^[179]

Dow futures tumbled more than 1,000 points and Standard & Poor's 500 futures dropped 5%, triggering a circuit breaker.^[180] On Monday 16 March, Asia-Pacific and European stock markets closed down (with the S&P/ASX 200 setting a one-day record fall of 9.7%, collapsing 30% from the peak that was reached on 20 February).^[181]^[182]^[183] The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, and the S&P 500 all fell by 12–13%, with the Dow eclipsing the one-day drop record set on 12 March and the trading curb being activated at the beginning of trading for the third time (after 9 and 12 March).^[184] Oil prices fell by 10%,^[185] while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to 0.76% and 1.38% respectively (while their yield curve remained normal for the third straight trading session).^[186]

The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 82.69 on 16 March, the highest ever closing for the index (though there were higher intraday peaks in 2008).^[187]^[188] Around noon on 16 March, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that it would conduct a $500 billion repurchase through the afternoon of that day.^[189] Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced an additional Rp22 trillion in tax-related fiscal stimulus.^[190] The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey lowered its reserve requirement from 8% to 6%.^[191] The Bank of Japan announced that it would not cut its bank rate lower from –0.1% but that it would conduct more open market purchases of exchange-traded funds.^[192] After cutting its bank rate by 25 basis points on 7 February,^[193] the Central Bank of Russia announced that it would keep its bank rate at 6%,^[194] while the Bank of Korea announced that it would cut its overnight rate by 50 basis points to 0.75%.^[195] The Central Bank of Chile cut its benchmark rate,^[196] while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate by 75 basis points to 0.25%.^[197] The Czech National Bank announced that it would cut its bank rate by 50 basis points to 1.75%.^[198]

National and regional impact

Majority of the world nations have already begun stimulus measures, relief programs for their citizen's and relief programs for the central banks in their nations to curb the severity of the recession.^[199] The recession proceeded after an unusually aggressive wave of social upheaval in 2019, which affects of anti-state trust and agitation still linger into 2020. Some economies across the globe were at the time before the recession still recovering from major protests, coup d'états and significant government change. Developing countries were also forecast to face severe economic constraints and hardships in the pandemic's wake.^[200]^[201] The increased authoritarian measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 has sparked social upheaval globally, but it is uncertain whether or not this will cause a wave of protests, revolutions or extreme ideologies similar to that of the Great Depression.^[202]^[203]

Australia

File:Lines in Australia at Centrelink during the Great Lockdown.webp

Unemployment lines in Australia at Centrelink during the recession

Australia before the recession was suffering from an unusually severe and expensive bushfire season which damaged the economy and domestic trade routes.^[204] Not only that, but Australia had experienced significant slowdown in their economic growth, with economists in late 2019 saying that Australia was 'teetering on the edge of a recession'.^[205] As a result of this and the effects of the recession, Australia is expecting a deep recession with at least 10% of the able working population becoming unemployed according to the Australian treasury and a GDP retraction of at least -6.7% according to the IMF.^[206]^[207] Due to panic buying and Australia's import's of food such as rice and grain being hampered, there are grave fears in the nation that the country could run out of neccessary food, with the Deputy Premier of New South Wales warning that Australians could 'go hungry'.^[208]

Following the collapse of manufacturing and shutdown of millions of jobs across Australia, long unemployment lines formed at the government's welfare service called Centrelink. Near the end of March, the system was overloaded with newly unemployed people and collapsed due to the sudden inflow of people seeking benefits for lost work. In April, Australia announced a 'jobseeker payment', however has come under severe criticism due ineffectiveness to apply for the payment. As a result, fights have broken out at unemployment lines and there is growing concern of the increasing unrest among the newly unemployed population.^[209]^[210]

As of April 2020, up to a million people have been laid off due to effects of the recession.^[211] Over 280,000 individuals applied for unemployment support at the peak day.^[212]

Canada

In Canada, the respective unemployment figure was 1 million for the month of March.^[213]

France

France's yellow vest movement caused significant economic damage to the French economy in 2019, alongside a global slowdown.^[214]^[215] France has being significantly hit hard by the pandemic, with two months of 'strict lockdown' imposed on the French society.^[216] On 8 April, the Bank of France officially declared that the French economy was in recession, shrinking by 6 percent in the first quarter of 2020.^[217]

Italy

Italy's unemployment rate is expected to rise to 11.2%, with 51% fearing unemployment in March.^[218]^[219]

Germany

Minister of Finance of Hesse Thomas Schäfer was found dead on 28 March 2020. Schäfer left a suicide note, where he mentions the "hopeless" economic situation in the country as one of the reasons.^[220]

United Kingdom

The Office for Budget Responsibility has suggested that unemployment could rise above the two million mark, returning to the highest level of unemployment since 1992 and an economic contraction of -35%. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, announced major stimulus measures to the tune of ₤350 billion on March 17.^[221]^[222]

United States

16 million jobs were lost in the United States alone in the three weeks ending on April 4th.^[223] A new record of unemployment claims was made, with 3.3 million claims made in the week ending on 21 March, with the previous record being 700,000 from 1982.^[224] Restaurant patronage has fallen sharply across the country,^[225] and major airlines are reducing their operations on a large scale.^[226] The Big Three car manufacturers have all halted production.^[227]

The US yield curve inverted in 2019, usually indicative of a forthcoming recession.^[228]^[229] The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index increased sharply from below zero to 5.8 during March 2020.^[230]^[231]

Impact by sector

Various service sectors are expected to be hit especially hard by the coronavirus recession.^[232]

Automotive industry

New vehicle sales in the United States have declined by 40%.^[233] The American Big Three have all shut down their US factories.^[234] The German automotive industry is coming into the crisis after having already suffered from the Dieselgate-scandal, as well as competition from electric cars.^[235]

Retail sector

Shopping centers around the world responded by reducing hours or closing down temporarily in response. As of 18 March 2020, the footfall to shopping centers fell by up-to 30%, with significant impact in every continent.^[236] Simon Property Group became the first major US-based mall operator to close all centers on 18 March, with government mandated closures in UAE, Italy, Germany, Spain, Brazil and Austria as of 23 March.

Transportation sector

The pandemic has had a significant impact on aviation industry due to the resulting travel restrictions as well as slump in demand among travelers. Significant reductions in passenger numbers has resulted in planes flying empty between airports and the cancellation of flights.

The cruise ship industry has also been heavily affected by a downturn, with the share prices of the major cruise lines down 70-80%.^[237]

Restaurant sector

The 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic has impacted the restaurant business. In the beginning of March 2020, some major cities in the US announced that bars and restaurants would be closed to sit-down diners and limited to takeout orders and delivery.^[238] Some employees were fired, and more employees lacked sick leave in the sector compared to similar sectors.^[239]^[240]

National fiscal responses

Several countries have announced stimulus programs to counter the effects of the recession. Below is a summary table based on data from the International Monetary Fund (unless otherwise specified).^[241]


Country	Direct spending (billions US$)	Direct spending (% GDP)	Loan guarantees and asset purchases (billions US$)	Notes
Australia	139	9.7	125
Austria	43	9
Azerbaijan	1.5	3
Bahrain	1.5	4	9.8
Belgium	10	2	60
Canada	145	8.4	170
Chile	11.75	4.7
China	380	2.5	770
Czech Republic	4	2	40
Denmark	9	2.5		Another 2.5% is estimated to come from automatic stabilizers.
Egypt	6.4	2
Estonia	2	7
Europe	600	4	870
France	50	2	300
Germany	175	4.9	825	States have announced additional spending.
Greece	17	7.5
Hong Kong	36.69	10
Iran	55	10+
Ireland	8.1	2
Israel	20	5.7	10
Italy	28	1.4	400
Japan	991	20	15
Kazakhstan	12	6
Macau	6.6	12.1
South Korea	14	0.6	90
Malaysia	7.5	2.1	10
New Zealand	11	5.7
Pakistan	8.8	3.8
Qatar	20.6	13
Singapore	54.5	11
Switzerland	42	6
Thailand	16.7	3
Turkey	20	2
United Arab Emirates	7.22	2
United States	2300	11	4000

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^
For an explanation regarding the title "Black Thursday", see:
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 '''Coronavirus recession''', more commonly known as '''The Great Lockdown,'''<ref name=":0">{{Cite web|url=https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/|title=The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression|last=IMFBlog|website=IMF Blog|access-date=2020-04-16}}</ref> is an ongoing severe global [[economic recession]] which began affecting the [[world economy]] in early to mid 2020.<ref>{{Cite news|last=Islam|first=Faisal|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51984470|title=Coronavirus recession not yet a depression|date=2020-03-20|work=BBC News|access-date=2020-04-16|language=en-GB}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://theconversation.com/how-will-the-coronavirus-recession-compare-with-the-worst-in-australias-history-136379|title=How will the coronavirus recession compare with the worst in Australia's history?|last=Hawkins|first=John|website=The Conversation|language=en|access-date=2020-04-16}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/21/21188541/coronavirus-news-recession-economy-unemployment-stock-market-jobs-gdp|title=The coronavirus recession is already here|last=Stewart|first=Emily|date=2020-03-21|website=Vox|language=en|access-date=2020-04-16}}</ref> The recession is considered to be the steepest [[economic downturn]] since the [[Great Depression]].<ref>{{Cite news|last=editor|first=Larry Elliott Economics|url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/great-lockdown-coronavirus-to-rival-great-depression-with-3-hit-to-global-economy-says-imf|title='Great Lockdown' to rival Great Depression with 3% hit to global economy, says IMF|date=2020-04-14|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-04-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> On the 14th of April 2020, the [[International Monetary Fund|IMF]] reported that all of the [[G7]] nations had already entered or were entering into what was called a 'deep recession', alongside most of the [[western world]] with significant slowdown of growth across [[Emerging economies|developing and emerging economies]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/|title=The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression|last=IMFBlog|website=IMF Blog|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref> The [[International Monetary Fund|IMF]] has stated that the economic decline is 'far worse' than that of the [[Great Recession]] in 2009.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/global-great-lockdown-will-dwarf-the-great-recession|title=The Great Recession Was Bad. The ‘Great Lockdown’ Is Worse.|website=BloombergQuint|language=en|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.nysscpa.org/news/publications/the-trusted-professional/article/imf-says-%27great-lockdown%27-worst-recession-since-depression-far-worse-than-last-crisis-041420|title=IMF Says 'Great Lockdown' Worst Recession Since Depression, Far Worse Than Last Crisis|website=www.nysscpa.org|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref>
-The recession began during the [[2019–20 coronavirus pandemic]].<ref>{{Cite news|last=Islam|first=Faisal|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51984470|title=Coronavirus recession not yet a depression|date=20 March 2020|work=BBC News|access-date=26 March 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6695294/the-coronavirus-recession-has-arrived/|title=The coronavirus recession has arrived|last=Times|first=The Canberra|date=25 March 2020|website=The Canberra Times|access-date=26 March 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|last=editor|first=Larry Elliott Economics|url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/great-lockdown-coronavirus-to-rival-great-depression-with-3-hit-to-global-economy-says-imf|title='Great Lockdown' to rival Great Depression with 3% hit to global economy, says IMF|date=2020-04-14|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-04-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> The [[2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|pandemic]] caused the largest global lockdown ever in [[human history]], with more then a third of the global population at the time being placed on lockdown.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com.au/countries-on-lockdown-coronavirus-italy-2020-3|title=A third of the global population is on coronavirus lockdown — here's our constantly updated list of countries and restrictions|last=McFall-Johnsen|first=Juliana Kaplan, Lauren Frias, Morgan|date=2020-03-14|website=Business Insider Australia|language=en|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref> This caused severe economic repercussions as [[Economy|economies]] across the world had to enter into a 'lockdown' to stop the spread of [[COVID-19]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/World-Economic-Outlook-April-2020-The-Great-Lockdown-49306|title=World Economic Outlook, April 2020 : The Great Lockdown|website=IMF|language=en|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref> The lockdown occurred on top of an 'economic slowdown' during 2019, which saw the stagnation of [[Stock market|stock markets]] and [[consumerism]] worldwide.<ref>{{Cite news|last=editor|first=Larry Elliott Economics|url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/08/nations-must-unite-halt-global-economic-slowdown-new-imf-head-kristalina-georgieva|title=Nations must unite to halt global economic slowdown, says new IMF head|date=2019-10-08|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-04-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/21/goldman-the-worst-of-the-global-economic-slowdown-may-be-in-the-past.html|title=The worst of the global economic slowdown may be in the past, Goldman says|last=Cox|first=Jeff|date=2019-11-21|website=CNBC|language=en|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref>
+The recession began during the [[2019–20 coronavirus pandemic]].<ref>{{Cite news|last=Islam|first=Faisal|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51984470|title=Coronavirus recession not yet a depression|date=20 March 2020|work=BBC News|access-date=26 March 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6695294/the-coronavirus-recession-has-arrived/|title=The coronavirus recession has arrived|last=Times|first=The Canberra|date=25 March 2020|website=The Canberra Times|access-date=26 March 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|last=editor|first=Larry Elliott Economics|url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/great-lockdown-coronavirus-to-rival-great-depression-with-3-hit-to-global-economy-says-imf|title='Great Lockdown' to rival Great Depression with 3% hit to global economy, says IMF|date=2020-04-14|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-04-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> The [[2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|pandemic]] caused the largest global lockdown ever in [[human history]], with more than a third of the global population at the time being placed on lockdown.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com.au/countries-on-lockdown-coronavirus-italy-2020-3|title=A third of the global population is on coronavirus lockdown — here's our constantly updated list of countries and restrictions|last=McFall-Johnsen|first=Juliana Kaplan, Lauren Frias, Morgan|date=2020-03-14|website=Business Insider Australia|language=en|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref> This caused severe economic repercussions as [[Economy|economies]] across the world had to enter into a 'lockdown' to stop the spread of [[COVID-19]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/World-Economic-Outlook-April-2020-The-Great-Lockdown-49306|title=World Economic Outlook, April 2020 : The Great Lockdown|website=IMF|language=en|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref> The lockdown occurred on top of an 'economic slowdown' during 2019, which saw the stagnation of [[Stock market|stock markets]] and [[consumerism]] worldwide.<ref>{{Cite news|last=editor|first=Larry Elliott Economics|url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/08/nations-must-unite-halt-global-economic-slowdown-new-imf-head-kristalina-georgieva|title=Nations must unite to halt global economic slowdown, says new IMF head|date=2019-10-08|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-04-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/21/goldman-the-worst-of-the-global-economic-slowdown-may-be-in-the-past.html|title=The worst of the global economic slowdown may be in the past, Goldman says|last=Cox|first=Jeff|date=2019-11-21|website=CNBC|language=en|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref>
 As of April 2020, the recession has seen staggering [[unemployment]] and the collapse of multiple state-funded [[beneficiaries]] for unemployed adults.<ref>{{Cite news|last=Aratani|first=Lauren|url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/15/florida-unemployment-system-coronavirus-applications|title=‘Designed for us to fail’: Floridians upset as unemployment system melts down|date=2020-04-15|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-04-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/unemployment-claims-state-see-how-covid-19-has-destroyed-job-n1183686|title=The coronavirus has destroyed the job market. See which states have been hit the hardest.|website=NBC News|language=en|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref> The [[United Nations|UN]] predicts that global unemployment will result in nearly 7% of the worker population being [[unemployed]], and considers two billion jobs to be 'at risk'.<ref>{{Cite news|last=Reuters|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/covid-19-expected-to-to-wipe-out-67-of-worlds-working-hours|title=Covid-19 to wipe out equivalent of 195m jobs, says UN agency|date=2020-04-07|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-04-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> In [[western nations]], unemployment is expected to be at around 10%, with more severely affected nations from the [[2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|coronavirus pandemic]] having higher unemployment rates.<ref>{{Cite news|last=Partington|first=Richard|url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/uk-economy-could-shrink-by-35-with-2m-job-losses-warns-obr|title=UK economy could shrink by 35% with 2m job losses, warns OBR|date=2020-04-14|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-04-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-unemployment-covid-19-treasury-figures-jobless-rate/12145542|title=Unemployment forecast to soar to highest rate in almost 30 years|last=Sullivan|first=political reporter Kath|date=2020-04-13|website=ABC News|language=en-AU|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/imf-coronavirus-to-create-more-unemployment-in-spain-than-italy.html|title=Spain's jobless rate is set to surge much more than in countries like Italy|last=Amaro|first=Silvia|date=2020-04-15|website=CNBC|language=en|access-date=2020-04-15}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|last=Butler|first=Katherine|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/after-coronavirus-how-will-europe-rebuild|title=After coronavirus: how will Europe rebuild?|date=2020-04-12|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-04-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref>