2008 United States House of Representatives elections: Difference between revisions

Content deleted Content added

Inline

Revision as of 04:49, 6 October 2007

Template:Future election in the United States Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 4, 2008, with all of the 435 seats in the House being contested. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011.

The 2008 Presidential election, 2008 Senate elections, 2008 state gubernatorial elections will occur on the same date, as well as many other state and local elections.

Composition going into the elections

The current composition of the House stands at 232 Democrats, 201 Republicans, and two vacancies.

The first vacancy is in Massachusetts's 5th congressional district, having been vacated by Democrat Marty Meehan when he resigned to become Chancellor of the University of Massachusetts, Lowell, on July 1, 2007. A special election will be held on October 16, 2007, to decide his replacement. Democrat Niki Tsongas, widow of former Congressman and Senator Paul Tsongas, will face Republican Jim Ogonowski, brother of 9/11 American Airlines Pilot John Ogonowski. Two independents and a Constitution party candidate will also compete. Tsongas is favored to win as Massachusetts has not elected a Republican to either house of Congress since the defeat of Peter G. Torkildsen and Peter I. Blute in the 1996 elections. Furthermore, this particular seat has been held by Democrats since Paul Tsongas captured it in the 1974 elections.

The second is in Ohio's 5th congressional district, and was caused by the death of Republican Paul Gillmor on September 5, 2007. A special primary election will be held on November 6, followed by the special election itself on December 11. The winner of the Republican primary will be heavily favored to win in this fairly conservative district.

Themes

On the Republican side, there are two different types of candidates challenging incumbents in Congressional primaries. First, several anti-war members of the GOP delegation, including Ron Paul (R-TX-14), Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD-1) and Walter Jones (R-NC-3), are facing Congressional challenges from pro-war local officials. This is indicative of the Republican Party's commitment to continuing the War in Iraq and its interest in booting outspoken Republicans opposing the War.

The second theme on the Republican side is the higher number of libertarian-leaning Republicans running for office in 2008. The large cluster of limited government candidates includes both challengers to GOP incumbents, such as Vern McKinley (VA-10) and Tom Brinkman (OH-2), as well as challengers to Democratic incumbents like Steve Kagen (WI-8) and Al Wynn (MD-4). The surge of candidates is indicative of the frustration from within the libertarian branch of the Republican Party on issues ranging from the War in Iraq and torture policies to government spending and the United States public debt.

Predictions

Shortly after the November 2006 election, Scott Elliott of ElectionProjection.com said that the Democratic majority would be tough to beat - at most the GOP could take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.^[1] InTrade.com, the only betting site currently offering odds on control of the House, puts the odds of the Democrats retaining control at about 80% as of mid-July 2007.^[2]

Conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote in May 2007 that he believes there are at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008."^[3] He also argues that "a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party;" However, he qualifies this by noting that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election."^[4]

Associated Press wrote an article titled, "House GOP fear fallout from ethics cases".^[5] After the 9/11 attacks the Republican Party branded itself as the party of President George W. Bush. Various ethics issues now taint Bush and the GOP. With House Republicans actively protecting the Bush administration in Congressional hearings and numerous Republicans under investigation the voters may decide to punish Republican candidates at the ballot box.

Potential races

The Democrats control the 110th Congress and the House of Representatives.

Factors that could make the races seen below competitive include:

Factor	Reason	Example
Age	The incumbent will be at least 70 years of age on Election Day 2008, and may opt to retire rather than run for another term, leaving their seat open.	Several representatives are at least 70 years of age, with the oldest being Ralph Hall (R-TX), age 84.
Cabinet appointments	Some districts could become open should the incumbent be appointed to a position within the Bush Administration.	Two members of the 109th Congress, Rob Portman (R-OH), now the United States Trade Representative and Chris Cox (R-CA), now chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, were the most recent representatives to leave Congress and go into the executive branch of government.
District Demographics	The incumbent represents a district leans or strongly favors the opposing party. For example, an incumbent Republican representing a district that went to John Kerry or barely went to George W. Bush in 2004 could be vulnerable, especially if the incumbent received no more than 55% of the vote. There are, as of the 2006 elections, about 70 Democratic seats won by Bush in 2004, compared to 4 Republican seats won by Kerry. This is a change from (as of 2004) 44 Democrats in seats Bush won in both 2000 and 2004, as opposed to 11 Republicans in districts won by Gore and Kerry.	Christopher Shays (R-CT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) represent districts that favor the opposing party. Additionally, Tom Davis (R-VA) represents a swing (but Democratic-trending) district while Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) represents a district that is politically balanced and known for competitive races.
Governor Controversies	Some House races could also be affected by an unpopular governor if the incumbent's party is the same as that of the governor. For example, some Indiana and Missouri races involving incumbent Republicans could be affected by the unpopularity of their Republican governors.	Mark Souder (R-IN), Ron Lewis and Geoff Davis (both R-KY), Charlie Melancon (D-LA), and Michael McCaul and Pete Sessions (R-TX), all of whom represent states with unpopular or controversial governors from their parties.
Health Issues	The incumbent has constant health issues and could either be forced into early retirement, forgo plans for a re-election bid, or die during their term in Congress.	A special election has been held for the seat of Charlie Norwood (R-GA), who died February 13, 2007, of lung cancer. Repubican Paul Broun, Jr. won the seat. Additionally, Elton Gallegly (R-CA) and Bill Young (R-FL) pondered retirement for health reasons before running for re-election 2006.
Higher office aspirations	The incumbent might consider running for higher political office, whether it is for a U.S. Senate seat, the Governor's Mansion, or for mayor of a major city.	Mark Udall (D-CO) will run for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senator Wayne Allard (R-CO). Additionally, Bobby Jindal is running for governor in Louisiana. Democratic New York congressman Anthony Weiner is also rumored to be considering a run for mayor of New York City in 2009.
Redistricting	Some incumbents could become vulnerable if redistricting affects their districts to the point that it favors the opposing party. For example, a Democrat could become vulnerable if his Democratic-leaning district becomes more Republican.	Two recent redistrictings, in Texas in 2003 and in Georgia in 2005, have made some Democratic districts more vulnerable. In 2006, Georgia Democrats John Barrow and Jim Marshall faced tough re-election bids.
Scandals	The incumbent is involved in a highly publicized political scandal or whose district was previously represented by a scandal-plagued representative from the opposing party.	The Jack Abramoff indian casino lobbying scandal affected several members of Congress, many of whom were defeated in 2006. Some key Abramoff donor recipients, such as John Doolittle (R-CA) are still in office. Additionally, Democrats Nick Lampson (D-TX) and Tim Mahoney (D-FL) took the respective districts of Tom DeLay (R-TX) and Mark Foley (R-FL), both of which heavily favor Republicans, in the previous election.
2008 Presidential campaign	Some incumbents could become vulnerable if a presidential candidate unpopular in their district runs as their party's nominee in the 2008 presidential election. Hillary Clinton could be a drag on Democrat fortunes in rural districts in the South and West, but she might help Democrats in New York State,the Northeast, Upper Midwest,the West Coast, and women candidates in general. A vocal social conservative Republican nominee might harm GOP prospects in the Blue States, but could help in the Red States. Conversely, John McCain would presumably aid Republican chances in Arizona, but harm anti-war districts. An ethnic factor might be present as Barack Obama could aid Democrats running in heavily black districts, but could be an enormous drag on heavily white districts, while a Democrat holding a heavily Italian-American district like Chris Murphy in Connecticut could be wary of the impact of a Rudy Giuliani candidacy.

Alabama

Alabama's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Terry Everett (R), who will be 71 in 2008, is retiring. This district covers southeastern Alabama, including Dothan and Montgomery. The Republicans will be favored to hold this district: George W. Bush won 67% in 2004 here. Likely Republican candidates are state Senator Jay Love and state Representative Greg Wren, while Democrats are trying to get Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright to run [1].

Alaska

Alaska's at-large congressional district— Incumbent Don Young (R), who is often referred to as "Alaska's third Senator" since the district he represents covers the entire state, will most likely stand for reelection. Young will be 75 in 2008. 2006 Democratic Party nominee and 2004 Green Party Gubernatorial Candidate Diane Benson has declared her candidacy, as has former State Democratic Party Chair Jake Metcalfe. George W. Bush won with 61% here in 2004.

According to some sources, Don Young has been fighting corruption probes using campaign funds. Young's stance on federal pork, his age, his corruption, and the Democratic edge of the current political remifications make Young a likely target by both the Democrats and the Republicans.

A strong primary challenge would be State Sen. Lesil McGuire. McGuire has been working in the state senate for nearly a decade and has a politically active husband. She is also a part of the coalition leadership which proves that she has the bipartisan credentials to woo alienated voters in the election. If she enters and proves to be an ethical candidate with no ties to the big pork projects and corruption charges, she could overcome the long time incumbant in the primary. However, she will need to prove that she is a good campaigner and get the approval of big name state Republican leaders such as Governor Sarah Palin in order to win both the primary and general elections.

Arizona

Arizona's 1st congressional district— In August 2007, incumbent Rick Renzi (R) announced he would not seek re-election, ^[6] four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation. Renzi received only 52% of the vote compared to 44% for his Democratic opponent – Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004. So far, Winslow Mayor Allan Affeldt, attorney Howard Shanker and state Representative Ann Kirkpatrick are declared candidates. (Simon had announced her intention to run again, but then dropped out in May 2007, citing personal reasons.) The DCCC has talked with attorney Jim Ledbetter. Other potential Democratic candidates include Arizona Department of Environmental Quality director Steve Owens; 2006 U.S. Senate candidate and wealthy real estate developer Jim Pederson, former Casa Grande mayor Bob Mitchell, who is the brother of Democratic Congressman Harry Mitchell; Pinal County attorney Carter Olson; and former Phoenix TV newscaster Mary Kim Titla. ^[7] On the Republican side of the aisle, public affairs consultant Sydney Ann Hay, who ran unsuccessfully in 2002, has announced her candidacy [2]. Other potential Republican candidates include state Senator Tom O'Halloran, state Representative Bill Konopnicki, and and former Navajo County Supervisor Lewis Tenney.

Arizona's 3rd congressional district— Outspoken conservative Republican John Shadegg has consistently been re-elected in this Republican-leaning district (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6) in the northern Phoenix suburbs which gave George W. Bush 57.9 percent of the vote in 2004. However, Democratic tax attorney Bob Lord has outraised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and even has more cash on hand compared to Shadegg, which could result in an unusually competitive race. However, Shadegg's campaign team has noted that Shadegg's funds are smaller than expected due to Shadegg donating most of the money in 2006 to fellow Republicans in a last-ditch, albeit lackluster attempt to retain control of Congress. [3] A campaign spokesperson has also noted that Shadegg will be well-funded. Shadegg's 2006 opponent, consultant Herb Paine, has announced his support for Independent candidate Annie Loyd. Shadegg's district was previously held by Arizona's junior United States Senator, Republican Jon Kyl.

Arizona's 5th congressional district— Freshman U.S. Representative Harry Mitchell (D) unseated conservative Republican J.D. Hayworth by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district (Cook PVI: R+4) in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The largely Republican nature of this district make a tough 2008 race certain, though Mitchell, who has a government complex in Tempe named after him, has won a lot of tough elections in the past. He will be seriously opposed in 2008. Former state Representative Laura Knaperek has announced her candidacy [4]. Other possible nominees are Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman, state Representative Michele Reagan, state Representative Mark Anderson, and former Congressional aide Sean Noble. Hallman has opted to seek re-election as Mayor, making a House bid unlikely as well.

Arizona's 6th congressional district— Republican incumbent Jeff Flake has won publicity for his opposition to pork barrel projects and advocacy for earmark reform. However, he may face serious primary opposition. State Representative Russell Pearce, a border security advocate and former police officer, has criticized Flake on the issue of illegal immigration and has admitted that he may run [5]. George W. Bush won 64% here in 2004.

Arizona's 8th congressional district— Democrat Gabrielle Giffords defeated conservative Republican Randy Graf by a 54% to 42% margin in 2006. If Republicans recruit a moderate candidate similar to the district's previous U.S. Representative, Jim Kolbe, Giffords could have a difficult re-election bid. Republicans are hoping that state Senator Tim Bee runs in 2008. They have been heartened by Bee's announcement that he is forming an exploratory committee for a possible campaign [6]. Bush narrowly won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry in 2004.

California

California's 4th congressional district— John Doolittle (R) has been associated with the corruption scandals of Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes, which could make re-election difficult in 2008 for Doolittle, who received only 49% of the vote in 2006 compared to 46% for his Democratic opponent, Charlie Brown. Brown announced in February 2007 that he would run again in 2008, and outraised Doolittle in the first and second quarters of 2007; as of June 30th, he had a net cash balance of $251,000; Doolittle had a negative balance of $32,000.^[8] The FBI raided Doolitte's home in April 2007 in search of incriminating evidence ^[9], and speculation abounds that Doolittle will be indicted. Many Republicans hope that Doolittle does not seek reelection in 2008, since the district leans Republican - George W. Bush won 61% here in 2004 - and normally could be expected to be a safe seat for the GOP. Doolittle may be unseated in the Republican primary. Popular state Assemblyman Ted Gaines has formed an exploratory committee for a possible campaign [7]. Other Republicans who might run, if Doolittle does not, include former state Senator Rico Oller, Placer County Supervisor Bruce Kranz and talk radio host Tom Sullivan.

California's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Lynn Woolsey (D) may retire. Woolsey, whose deeply liberal, wealthy district north of the Golden Gate Bridge is based in Marin County and southern Sonoma County, will be 71 in 2008. More than half of registered voters in this district are Democrats.

California's 8th congressional district- Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's seat is safe, but Iraq War activist, Cindy Sheehan announced that she will considering running against Pelosi if Pelosi does not put in a article of impeachment against Pres. George W. Bush and VP Dick Cheney.^[10] Sheehan announced she will run as an Independent ticket. Pelosi is very popular, and pundits believe Sheehan will be defeated in a landslide. Pelosi won re-election with 80% of the vote in 2006.

California's 11th congressional district— Republicans will look to oppose Jerry McNerney (D), who defeated scandal-plagued incumbent Richard Pombo in 2006 with 53% in what has often been a solidly-Republican district (even though this outer East Bay district has become more Democratic recently with the arrival of transplants from the San Francisco Bay Area). Pombo has ruled out a rematch. Former Assemblyman Dean Andal has announced his candidacy [8]. State Assemblyman Guy Houston, who was thought to be a potential candidate, announced in August that he would instead run for a seat on the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors. Bush won here with 54% to 46% in 2004.

California's 12th congressional district— Hungarian-born incumbent, House International Relations Committee chairman and Holocaust survivor Tom Lantos, will be 80 in 2008 and may retire. This overwhelmingly Democratic district is comprised mainly of northern San Mateo County and the Sunset area of San Francisco. To the surprise of some, there is speculation that former state Senator Jackie Speier (D) is thinking of running even if Lantos is a candidate. Barry Hermanson of the Green Party is also a candidate [9].

California's 13th congressional district— Often regarded as the most liberal member of Congress (and its only known atheist), incumbent Pete Stark (D) will be 77 in 2008 and may retire. His overwhelmingly Democratic district is centered in the East Bay and includes Hayward.

California's 23rd congressional district— Incumbent Lois Capps (D), who will be 70 in 2008, may retire. Capps' district covers the southern tail of California's Central Coast and includes the Santa Barbara area. John Kerry won 57% here.

California's 24th congressional district— Although he had claimed that his 2006 campaign would be his last, Elton Gallegly (R) has announced that he intends to seek another term in 2008. Republican State Senator Tom McClintock, who has name statewide recognition from his several statewide campaigns, would be considered the likely frontrunner were there an open seat. However, McClintock has been an intra-party rival to Gallegly, who had hoped to have a political ally nominated to succeed him. Bush won 55% here in 2004. The Democrats may field a strong candidate in former Ventura Mayor Richard Francis. 2006 nominee Jill Martinez may run again.

California's 25th congressional district— Incumbent Buck McKeon (R), past chair of the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, may retire. McKeon will be 70 in 2008. The district he represents, consisting of much of northern Los Angeles County, is solidly Republican. George W. Bush won 58% here in 2004.

California's 33rd congressional district— Incumbent Diane Watson (D), who will be 75 in 2008, may retire. Her overwhelmingly Democratic district consists of Culver City and some of central Los Angeles.

California's 35th congressional district— Incumbent Maxine Waters (D), who will be 70 in 2008, may retire. Her district includes most of South Central Los Angeles is one of the most heavily Democratic districts in the state.

California's 37th congressional district— On April 22, 2007, incumbent Democrat Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) died of cancer in her home. She had recently took a leave of absence to be treated [10]. Her staunchly Democratic district includes Compton, some of south-central Los Angeles and much of Long Beach. In a mild surprise, state Assemblywoman Laura Richardson defeated liberal state Senator Jenny Oropeza in the Democratic primary, and later won the general election on August 21.

California's 38th congressional district— Incumbent Grace Napolitano (D), who will be 72 in 2008, may retire. Napolitano's heavily Democratic east Los Angeles-based district is a largely Hispanic one that includes Montebello, Pico Rivera, LaPuente, and part of Norwallk. It is surrounded by several white and Asian communities that sometimes vote Republican.

California's 41st congressional district— Incumbent Jerry Lewis (R) served as the chair of the House Appropriations Committee when Republicans controlled the House. Lewis, who will be 74 in 2008, has come under investigation for connections to the Copeland Lowery lobbying firm. In spite of speculation that he would retire, Lewis announced he would seek reelection on August 31 [11]. Bush won 62% here in 2004.

California's 42nd congressional district- Incumbent Gary Miller (R) has recently suffered bad press, with four ex-aides accusing him of conflict-of-interest and using his position to profit from the sale of personal land holdings.^[11] This Inland Empire-based district is solidly Republican, but if the charges are proven, Miller could have a difficult reelection in 2008 or be forced to retire.

California's 44th congressional district- Incumbent Ken Calvert (R) of Riverside was recently appointed to the powerful House Appropriations Committee, but in the process, he got bad publicity. It has been reported that he has been investigated on charges of raising the value of his property by having government-funded projects built near it [12], and also some conservatives have attacked his record on the issues. It is possible that he could face a conservative primary opponent, and if he is indicted, he could perhaps be unseated in the general election. George W. Bush won 59% of the vote here in 2004.

California's 47th congressional district— Loretta Sanchez (D) won 62% of the vote in a district that barely went to George W. Bush with around 50% to 49% in 2004, which could result in a potential opening for Republicans, who have not recruited a strong candidate in years. However, her district is located in one of the more Democratic areas of Orange County, including Anaheim and Santa Ana. Also, Al Gore won this district in 2000 by a comfortable margin.

California's 50th congressional district— Brian Bilbray (R) won 53% of the vote in a Republican-leaning district north of San Diego that was previously represented by the scandal-plagued Duke Cunningham (R). George W. Bush won 54% here in 2004.

California's 52nd congressional district— Duncan Hunter (R) has announced he will be retiring from Congress in 2008 due to his presidential bid. His son, Duncan Duane Hunter, is a candidate for the seat, although currently only his wife is actively campaigning (Duncan D. Hunter is stationed with the Marines in Iraq). Other candidates include Santee City Councilman Brian Jones, Ken King and local radio talk show host Mark Larson. George W. Bush won 60% in this heavily Republican district in suburban San Diego in 2004.

Colorado

Colorado's 2nd congressional district— With the retirement of Senator Wayne Allard, popular incumbent Mark Udall (D) will run for Senate, which will leave an open seat in this district. However, Democrats hold a strong edge in this district (John Kerry won 59% here), as it is centered around heavily Democratic Boulder. Announced candidates include Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Colorado Conservation Trust Director Will Shafroth, and businessman Jared Polis. Among Republicans, former Eagle County Commissioner Tom Stone is a possible candidate. The race could get interesting if Boulder Mayor Mark Ruzzin chooses to run as the Green Party candidate.

Colorado's 4th congressional district— Conservative Marilyn Musgrave (R), known for her staunch opposition to gay marriage, won only after winning a plurality (46%) of the vote against Angie Paccione (D) and a strong Reform Party challenge from Eric Eidsness, who managed to bevy up 11% of the vote. That, along with her 51% showing in 2004 despite George W. Bush winning 58% of the vote in this eastern Colorado district that includes the Fort Collins area, could make her vulnerable in 2008. Democrats suffered a setback when state Senator Brandon Schaffer suddenly dropped out, citing his party's failure to clear the field. Still, Democrats may have at least two candidates competing to take on Musgrave, including Betsy Markey, businesswoman and regional director for Senator Ken Salazar [13]. Also, Eidsness recently switched again (life-long Republican to Reform Party last year) and became a Democrat, which could have fueled a potential rematch with Musgrave in 2008 but he announced he would not run. 2006 nominee Angie Paccione briefly launched a campaign as well, but left the race in September 2007.

Colorado's 5th congressional district— Freshman Doug Lamborn (R) could face a primary challenge from a more moderate Republican with similarities to the district's previous representative, Joel Hefley. Lamborn narrowly won a nasty multi-candidate primary in 2006 and despite worries of vulnerability (Hefley did not endorse Lamborn citing his "sleazy" campaign), still won by a 59%-41% margin, becoming the highest vote getter for a GOP Congressional candidate in the state in the 2006 cycle. His district is based in heavily Republican Colorado Springs. Jeff Crank, who (in 2006) very narrowly lost the GOP primary to Lamborn despite Hefley's endorsement, might challenge Lamborn in the 2008 primary for this seat. Recently, Lamborn got bad press when two constituents accused him of making a threatening phone call in response to a critical letter they wrote [14]. In early October of 2007, retired Major General Bentley Rayburn, who finished third place in the 2006 Republican primary, announced that he would also run again in 2008 [15].

Colorado's 6th congressional district— This seat could become open in 2008 if Tom Tancredo (R) runs for president. If he decides to run for re-election for his House seat in the southern Denver suburbs instead, he could face a challenge given his controversial views on immigration reform. However, Tancredo's seat is considered to be the most Republican-dominated district of the Denver-area seats (and also one of the wealthiest in the nation). Tancredo was the second highest vote getter for a Republican congressional candidate statewide (59%-40%) in 2006, just behind Doug Lamborn in the 5th district. The district includes Columbine High School, which was devastated in a tragic 1999 school massacre, although Democratic attempts to target him on his outspoken views on gun rights in the 2000 election came up short (he prevailed 53% to 44%).

Colorado's 7th congressional district— Freshmen Ed Perlmutter (D) won 55% of the vote in this suburban Denver district that narrowly went to John Kerry with 52% in 2004. The district's voter registration is split, with independents constituting a slim plurality of 35% compared to Democrats (34%) and Republicans (31%).

Connecticut

Connecticut's 2nd congressional district— In one of the closest U.S. House races of 2006, Joe Courtney (D) unseated two-term incumbent Rob Simmons by 82 votes. Courtney's chance at reelection increased when Simmons decided against a rematch. Republicans mentioned as possible challengers include former state Senator Cathy Cook, who ran for state Controller in 2006, and Bozrah First Selectman Keith Robbins. Former Groton sub base commander Sean Sullivan has announced his candidacy [16] However, John Kerry won 55% here in 2004, so Courtney may be hard to unseat, especially in a presidential year.

Connecticut's 4th congressional district— Chris Shays (R) won 51% of the vote in 2006 and 52% in 2004 in a district that went to John Kerry with 53% in 2004. In September, 2007, Shays indicated that if he was not given the top Republican seat on the Governmental Oversight Committee, he would retire. The only Republican House member in New England, he will likely be a top target of Democrats if he runs in 2008. 2006 U.S. Senate candidate Ned Lamont may run, although he lost in this district to incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, whom Shays had endorsed. Former Goldman Sachs executive and community activist Jim Himes announced his candidacy in April 2007. Other possible Democratic candidates include state Senators Bob Duff and Andrew MacDonald. Former professional hockey player Mike Richter, once considered a possible candidate, has announced that he is not interested in running in 2008.

Connecticut's 5th congressional district— Arguably the most conservative district in Connecticut - although it went to John Kerry with 50% to 48% in 2004. Freshman Chris Murphy (D) could be vulnerable, despite having unseated 24-year incumbent Nancy Johnson with 56% of the vote in 2006. State Senator David Cappiello (R) has announced that he will run [17], and state Senator Sam Caligiuri may run as well. GOP state chairman Chris Healy dismissed claims that Murphy's large campaign warchest of $420,000 in the first quarter of 2007 may scare off potential challengers, as Cappiello filed as a candidate in April 2007.[18] National Republicans have begun running radio ads in the summer of 2007 claiming Murphy has adopted special interest fundraising politics he had claimed to oppose. In addition, Cappiello has accused Murphy of missing important votes [19].

Delaware

Delaware's at-large congressional district— Moderate Republican Michael Castle may retire or run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Joe Biden should Biden run for president and not run for his Senate seat at the same time. Castle was re-elected in 2006, even though he suffered a minor stroke earlier that year, garnering 57.2% of the vote over Democrat Dennis Spivack. Castle will be 69 in 2008. The state of Delaware – coterminous with this House district – went to Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. Possible Democratic candidates include state Treasurer Jack Markell, whom the DCCC has asked to run even if Castle seeks reelection^[12], and state Attorney General Beau Biden, son of current U.S. Senator Joe Biden, who might also run for the U.S. Senate if his father retires. Other Democrats eyeing candidacies are New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, Wilmington City Council President Ted Blunt, state Insurance Commissioner Matt Denn, and state Representative Peter Schwartzkopf.

On the Republican side, state Auditor Tom Wagner is a possible candidate should Castle not seek reelection.

Florida

Florida's 2nd congressional district— If Allen Boyd (D) retires or runs for another office, this district in the Florida Panhandle would be highly competitive. Bush won the district 54-46% in 2004 but split it 48-48% with Al Gore (4% went to third parties) in 2000. Boyd won unopposed in 2006 and will be 63 in 2008.

Florida's 5th congressional district— In 2004 and 2006, Ginny Brown-Waite (R) faced political newcomers Robert Whittel and John Russell respectively and won reelection by somewhat diminishing margins of 32% and 20% respectively. She won her seat in 2002 by slightly more than 4,000 votes over incumbent Karen Thurman, currently the head of the state Democratic Party. If Thurman were to run again for her old seat, the race in this Nature Coast district could become highly competitive. George W. Bush won 58% here in 2004.

Florida's 8th congressional district— In 2006, incumbent Ric Keller (R), author of the "Cheeseburger Bill", was reelected by less than expected. Orlando businessman Charlie Stuart, who polled 46%, is running again in 2008. Environmental activist Corbett Kroehler is also running.After the November 2006 election, Keller announced that he would break his 2000 pledge to serve only four terms. Because of this, conservative radio host Todd Long has filed with the FEC to challenge Keller in the Republican primary. Democrat and former state prosecutor Mike Smith is also challenging Keller^[13]. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 with 55% of the vote.

Florida's 9th congressional district— Freshman Incumbent Gus Bilirakis (R) son of Mike Bilirakis was elected in a closer than expected race in 2006. It is a Republican-leaning district located on Florida's Gulf Coast north of Tampa; George W. Bush won the district with 57% of the vote in 2004. In 2006, Bilirakis won with 55% of the vote against Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky. He could face a tough race in 2008. Attorney Bill Mitchell has already declared his intention to run on the Democrat side, and Busansky may seek a rematch.

Florida's 10th congressional district— Incumbent Bill Young (R) may retire. There had been speculation in 2006 that he would retire unless either his wife ran or another candidate would file for the GOP nomination. Young ran again based on the latter scenario. Young will be 78 in 2008 and if he does retire, his seat will likely be competitive as George W. Bush only won this district, centered around St. Petersburg and Pinellas County, with 50% to 49% for John Kerry. Also, Al Gore won this district by a comfortable margin in 2000. 2006 Democratic nominee Samm Simpson is running again, and another possible candidate is State Senator Charlie Justice. A possible GOP candidate if Young retires is Pinellas County Commissioner Karen Seel.

Florida's 13th congressional district— Freshman Vern Buchanan (R) was certified as having won his first term by a 369-vote margin over banker Christine Jennings, but Jennings challenged the election in court. Although Buchanan was seated by the House, the House has made no final decision on the matter, and it is possible that the House will replace Buchanan with Jennings sometime this term. Regardless of what the House does, this is expected to be a competitive race in 2008. In mid-July, Jennings announced she would run again in 2008.^[14] George W. Bush won 56% of the district's vote in 2004.

Florida's 16th congressional district— This is normally a solidly Republican district, so consensus is that Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 can be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal. The Republican nominee Joe Negron's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Thus Mahoney may have a competitive race in 2008. George W. Bush won this district by a 10-point margin in 2004. Negron has announced that he will not run again. Conservative state Representative Gayle Harrell (R) has announced her candidacy but faces primary opposition from Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche, and wealthy attorney Tom Rooney. Mahoney has raised some $400,000 for his re-election in the first quarter of 2007.

Florida's 22nd congressional district— First-term incumbent Ron Klein (D) might face a challenge in this Fort Lauderdale area district that barely went to John Kerry in 2004. Republicans suffered a setback when Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams announced he would not run. Now, some local political observers are saying that the GOP will not make a serious effort to target Klein. Klein's large campaign treasury may scare off any remaining potential challengers. Former Army officer and Iraq War veteran Allen West and former Navy pilot Mark Flagg both have announced they are running. Neurosurgeon Robert Brodner is also a potential candidate.

Florida's 23rd congressional district— Incumbent Alcee Hastings (D) may retire. He was disappointed when he was denied the chairmanship of the House Intelligence Committee. This district is centered around Broward and Palm Beach counties. Hastings will be 72 in 2008. The Democratic nominee would presumably be the winner in this district that only gave George W. Bush 24% of the vote in 2004.

Florida's 24th congressional district— Tom Feeney (R) could have a challenging race in 2008. Feeney's district includes the Orlando suburbs as well as the Space Coast of Florida. Feeney was reelected by 58% to 42%, less than expected. The Democratic bench in this district is very weak however, and a serious challenger to Feeney will be hard to find. 2006 challenger Clint Curtis has announced he will run again. George W. Bush won 55% here in 2004.

Georgia

Georgia's 8th congressional district— Jim Marshall (D) survived a challenge from former Rep. Mac Collins (R) in 2006 by 1,752 votes and will face a tough re-election bid and perhaps a rematch in 2008, which might prompt him to challenge U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss for his U.S. Senate seat instead. Retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard has announced that he would run [20], and his background may have great appeal in a district with a large number of veterans, though Marshall's own military background and well-established credibility on military issues may cancel this out somewhat. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given George W. Bush 61% of the vote in 2004. Also a potential Republican challenger is state Senator Ross Tolleson, and Collins may seek a rematch.

Georgia's 12th congressional district— John Barrow (D) may face a tough challenge from Republicans in 2008 after an 864-vote win over former Rep. Max Burns (R) in their 2006 rematch. Barrow had defeated then-incumbent Burns in 2004 with 52% of the vote. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given John Kerry 51% in 2004. In 2008, Barrow might challenge U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss for his U.S. Senate seat instead. Barrow got a break when Burns accepted a job with North Georgia College and State University, making a rematch unlikely. But that doesn't put Barrow in the clear. Republican former Augusta Mayor Bob Young may run.

Hawaii

Hawaii's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Neil Abercrombie (D) may retire. Located in a heavily Democratic state, this district is dominated by Honolulu. Abercrombie will be 70 in 2008 and if he retires, this race could become competitive; John Kerry won only 52% of the vote here in 2004.

Idaho

Idaho's 1st congressional district — Conservative Republican Bill Sali won this open seat race with 49.9 percent of the vote in 2006, a mediocre showing at best in this heavily Republican district that gave Bush 68 percent in 2004. Also, as a member of the Idaho Legislature Sali caused considerable controversy by repeatedly citing a link between breast cancer and abortion without being able to provide evidence. Although Sali was elected the GOP freshman leader in the House, his term in Washington thus far has been relatively quiet. Sali remains controversial and has drawn a primary challenger in Iraq War veteran Matt Salisbury.^[15].Meanwhile, Larry Grant, Sali's 2006 Democratic opponent, will run for the seat again in 2008.^[16] Grant is believed to be a strong Demcoratic candidate for this seat. Another Democrat running is retired military officer and counterterrorism consultant Rand Lewis. Walt Minnick, a Boise businessman and the Democratic Idaho U.S. Senate nominee in 1996, has also announced that he was seriously thinking of running. All this, combined with a more competitive political landscape in the rapidly growing Boise area (where Democrats picked up five seats in the Idaho Legislature in 2006), may make this race worth watching in 2008.

Illinois

Illinois's 3rd congressional district— Dan Lipinski (D) appears likely to experience some form of challenge in the Democratic Primary. Mark Pera, 52, of Western Springs has filed FEC paperwork [21] and launched a web site [22]. Pera is a Cook County assistant state's attorney specializing in environmental and public utility law. Pera has been the president of the board of education, Lyons Township High School, for the last seven years. Previously, Pera ran for state representative. Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos wrote favorably about Pera's candidacy.

Illinois's 6th congressional district— Freshman Peter Roskam (R) squeaked into his first term in Congress by 51% to 49% and represents a suburban district that narrowly went to George W. Bush with 53% to 47% in 2004.

Illinois's 8th congressional district— Melissa Bean (D) may again be a target of Republicans, who unsuccessfully tried to unseat her in 2006, when Bean won 51% of the vote after defeating veteran incumbent Phil Crane with 52% in 2004 in a district that George W. Bush won with 55% to 45% for John Kerry. Bean is being challenged in the Democratic primary by anti-war candidate Randi Scheurer. ^[17] Businessman Steve Greenberg is considered the strongest Republican in the race. ^[18] Iain Abernathy is running in the Moderate Party primary and is currently unopposed. ^[19]

Illinois's 10th congressional district— Mark Kirk (R) survived a surprisingly close race in 2006, winning by 53% to 47% in an upscale suburban Chicago district that voted for John Kerry with 54% in 2004. In December 2006, Kirk disclaimed any interest in the 2008 U.S. Senate race against the Democratic incumbent, Dick Durbin. Kirk's 2006 opponent Dan Seals will run again, and another potential challenger is attorney and former Clinton presidential adviser Jay Footlik. David Kalbfleisch The founder of the Arlington Heights chapter of the Green Party has announced that he will run for the seat.^[20] Kalbfleisch is a Navy veteran and member of Iraq Veterans Against the War. [23]

Illinois's 11th congressional district— Jerry Weller will be retiring at the end of his seventh term. ^[21] Weller (R) won 55% of the vote in a district that narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004 with 53% to 47% for John Kerry. Weller has received controversial donations from a number of sources, including ARMPAC. The controversy over his marriage to Guatemalan Congresswoman Zury Ríos Montt, daughter of former strongman Efraín Ríos Montt.^[22], has also affected him. Green Party member Jason Wallace, a veteran of the Iraq War and chair of the IBHE-SAC[24], has announced he will run for the seat [25]. President of Kankakee Community College Jerry Weber is running as a Democrat. State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson is also running as a Democrat. Among Republicans, Joliet Mayor Art Schultz, state Representative Renee Kosel, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, and state Appellate Judge William Holdridge are possible candidates [26] [27] [28].

Illinois's 13th congressional district— Judy Biggert (R) may retire. Biggert is known to have moderate positions. Her district includes southern Dupage, northern Will, and a part of Cook counties; an area which has changed much demographically in recent years. DuPage County Green Party Co-Chairperson Steve Alesch is also a declared candidate [29] [30]. Biggert will be 71 in 2008. Bush won 55% here to 45% for John Kerry.

Illinois's 14th congressional district— Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) will not run for re-election in 2008. ^[23] The Mark Foley congressional page scandal has caused some damage to his reputation even though Hastert won 60% of the vote in 2006 and 69% in 2004, when George W. Bush won with 55% in this district to 45% for John Kerry. Conservative state Senator Chris Lauzen officially began his campaign for congress on September 19, 2007. Other GOP candidates include; businessman Jim Oberweis and Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns. ^[24] A few Democrats have declared intent to run. John Laesch ran against Hastert in 2006 and has expressed intent to run in 2008.^[25] Jotham Stein, a Geneva attorney and Bill Foster, a businessman and Fermilab physicist, are also running.^[26] Geneva businessman Joe Serra has also expressed interest in the race.^[27]

Illinois's 15th congressional district— Timothy V. Johnson (R) has already been targeted by a Democratic Party aligned interest group for his vote against the Iraq supplemental funding bill that called for withdrawing U.S. troops in 2008. Bush won 58% here to 42% for John Kerry in 2004.

Illinois's 16th congressional district— Donald Manzullo (R) has avoided serious challenges in the past. Robert G. “Bob” Abboud (D) is the village president of the exceedingly wealthy Chicago suburb, Barrington Hills. Abboud is the president of RGA Labs Inc. and reportedly quite wealthy.^[28] Bush won here with 55% to 45% in 2004.

Illinois's 17th congressional district— Phil Hare (D) was elected in 2006. Normally, first term incumbents experience well-funded challenges. John Kerry won 52% here in 2004.

Illinois's 18th congressional district— Ray LaHood (R) has announced that he won't seek reelection in 2008 ^[29] The race to succeed him will be highly competitive, with the district leaning Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. State Rep. Aaron Schock (R) has announced his candidacy ^[30], and holds a commanding lead in a recent poll. ^[31]

Illinois's 19th congressional district— John Shimkus (R) had his reputation tarnished for his role in the page scandal. Shimkus was the chair of the page board. He was reelected with 61% against Danny Stover. Shimkus spent $826,242 to Stover's $114,732[31]. Stover had previously been a member of the Centralia City Council. [32]. Bush won 60% here in 2004.

Indiana

Indiana's 2nd congressional district— In 2006, Joe Donnelly (D) won by 54% to 46% in this Republican-leaning district that went to Bush with 55% of the vote in 2004, largely as a result of displeasure with the GOP both nationally and at the state level. Even though the unpopularity of Governor Mitch Daniels may make it difficult for Republicans to take back the seat in 2008, they will look to challenge Donnelly. Possible GOP candidates include state Senator Thomas Weatherwax and Kokomo City Controller Phil Williams.

Indiana's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Mark Souder (R) won reelection by a less-than-expected margin of 54% to 46% against Fort Wayne City Councilman Tom Hayhurst. The district contains Fort Wayne and Huntington, as well as the northeastern portion of the state. Souder could also be saddled by the unpopularity of Republican governor Mitch Daniels. However, Bush won 68% here in 2004.

Indiana's 5th congressional district— 12-term incumbent Dan Burton (R) may retire. Burton's district stretches from Wabash in northeast Indiana to the Indianapolis suburbs. Burton will be 70 in 2008. Regardless of Burton's decision, former Marion County Coroner John McGoff has announced his candidacy.^[32] McGoff has criticized Burton for missing 19 votes in January while playing at a celebrity golf tournament in California. Bush won 71% here in 2004.

Indiana's 7th congressional district— Julia Carson (D) may retire. The district is centered around urban Indianapolis and leans Democratic. Carson will be 70 in 2008 and won reelection in 2006 by less than expected. Democrats who might be interested in succeeding her include state Reps Gregory Porter and Carolene Mays, and Center Township Trustee Carl L. Drummer. On the GOP side, wealthy automobile dealer Eric Dickerson, who ran against Carson in 2006 and made a credible showing, may run again. Kerry won 52% here.

Indiana's 8th congressional district— In 2006, freshman Brad Ellsworth (D) unseated John Hostettler (R) by 61% to 39%, surprising even his fellow Democrats by the margin. He will be a formidable candidate for reelection, but no incumbent can rest easy in this district, known as "The Bloody 8th" for its history of rejecting incumbents and hotly contested races. Republicans suffered a setback when Gibson County Prosecutor Rob Krieg announced that he wouldn't run. Greg Goode, a government affairs official at Indiana State, is a declared candidate [33]. Bush won 61% here to 39% in 2004.

Indiana's 9th congressional district— Baron Hill (D) narrowly won his old job back by 50% to 47% in 2006. The district went to George W. Bush with 59% of the vote in 2004. Hill and Mike Sodrel (R) have faced off in three consecutive elections, Hill winning the first and third and Sodrel the second on a recount, so the outcome in 2008 is anything but certain should Sodrel seek another rematch. Even absent another Sodrel campaign, Republicans will seriously contest this district.

Iowa

Iowa's 1st congressional district— In 2006, Democrat Bruce Braley won his first term by 54% to 43% to succeed Republican Jim Nussle, who ran unsuccessfully for Governor that year. The district, which covers the northeastern part of Iowa, leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so. It's possilbe that Braley will be challenged by Jeff Bullock, President of the University of Dubuque, in 2008. Kerry won 53% here in 2004.

Iowa's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Dave Loebsack won 51% of the vote in an upset victory over 30-year incumbent Republican Jim Leach. John Kerry won this district with 55% in 2004. There are some rumors that former professional baseball player Cal Eldred may run.

Iowa's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) may retire because of age and medical issues. This district includes the capital city of Des Moines. Boswell will be 74 in 2008 and had a relatively close reelection in 2006. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti ran a strong campaign that year and may run again. Another potential challenger is state Senator David Zaun. Bush won this district with 49.7% compared to 49.6% for John Kerry in 2004, a razor-thin victory. Boswell reported raising $242,000 in the second quarter of 2007 and began July with $525,000 in the bank.^[33]

Iowa's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Republican Tom Latham may face a tough race in this swing district that George W. Bush barely won with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004. Some Democrats think that Latham has managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1995) because he had never faced a strong opponent.

Iowa's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Republican Steve King, a strong conservative and border security advocate, is a sure bet in this strongly Republican district in the western part of the state. However, with he and Senator Tom Harkin criticizing each other's stance on illegal immigration, there is some speculation that King will challenge Harkin in 2008. If so, King will likely be succeeded by another Republican.

Kansas

Kansas's 2nd congressional district— Nancy Boyda (D) narrowly upset Jim Ryun (R) in 2006. Her district gave Bush 58% to 40% in 2004, and she could be vulnerable, as her victory was aided by infighting between the moderate and conservative factions of the state GOP, which hurt turnout for Ryun. On January 29, 2007, Ryun announced that he would challenge Boyda for his old seat in 2008. However, in 2006, Ryun was damaged over a Washington, D.C. real estate purchase and Boyda may very well revive the issue. More recently, state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R) announced that she would also run, but conservatives dislike her. Another possible candidate is state Rep Lee Tafanelli (R), an Iraq War veteran. The campaign for the GOP nomination has already turned nasty, with Jenkins accusing Ryun of having ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Kansas's 3rd congressional district— Dennis Moore (D) represents a district that voted for Bush with 55% to 45% in 2004. It is centered around the western suburbs of Kansas City, including Overland Park, and heavily Democratic Lawrence, home of the University of Kansas. Moore won easily in 2006, but had difficulty in winning his previous four terms. He faces another tough race in 2008. State Senator Nick Jordan (R), who is supported by both conservatives and moderates, announced on August 21 that he will run [34].

Kentucky

Kentucky's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Ron Lewis may face a tough race in this district since, in 2006, Lewis only won 54% here despite the fact that George W. Bush handily won this district in both 2000 and 2004.

Kentucky's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth narrowly unseated Republican Anne Northup in 2006 with 51%. Republicans will try to regain a district they held for 10 years, although it usually votes Democratic. Former Federal prosecutor Erwin Roberts has announced that he is running [35], and state Senator Dan Seum is seriously considering a candidacy. John Kerry won this district with 52% in 2004.

Kentucky's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Hal Rogers (R) may retire. He will be 71 in 2008. George W. Bush won 61% in this district in 2004.

Kentucky's 6th congressional district— Republicans could target Democrat Ben Chandler in 2008. In 2004, George W. Bush won 58% of this district to 42% for John Kerry, which includes Lexington and the state capital of Frankfort. In 2006, Chandler won with no Republican opponent. Despite the district's Republican lean, Chandler is very popular there and would be very difficult to unseat. He has been mentioned as a candidate for the U.S. Senate against Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Louisiana

Louisiana's 1st congressional district— Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) is running for governor in 2007. If he wins that election, then there will be a special election to succeed him as U.S. Representative. The district includes Tangipahoa, St. Tammany, Washington, and parts of Jefferson, Orleans and St. Charles parishes. Although the district has a higher number of registered Democrats, it has voted Republican in the past. If Jindal is elected governor, possible GOP candidates for the seat would be Jefferson Parish Councilman at-large Tom Capella, St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis, Slidell Mayor Ben Morris, state Rep. Steve Scalise, Jefferson Parish Councilman John Young, State Senator Julie Quinn, and perhaps U.S. Attorney Jim Letten. Gilda Reed, Ph.D. is running as the Democratic candidate for the seat.

Louisiana's 2nd congressional district— Bill Jefferson (D) surprised many when he went on to win re-election in his New Orleans-based seat, defeating state Rep. Karen Carter (D), with 57% in a December 2006 run-off. In spite of that surprising margin, he could face a primary opponent in 2008, or the district could even become open should Jefferson, who has come under fire for allegedly taking thousands of dollars in bribes (including money law enforcement found in his freezer), either resign or be indicted and convicted and thus expelled from Congress. Karen Carter may run again in 2008 as well as Mayor of New Orleans Ray Nagin.

Louisiana's 3rd congressional district— Republicans will likely look to oppose Charlie Melancon (D) in 2008. The district voted for George W. Bush with 58% in 2004.

Louisiana's 6th congressional district— Richard Baker (R) is popular in this marginal district dominated by Baton Rouge, but he has been approached about running for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu. Should Baker accept, it would give Democrats a shot at winning this seat. This would be made easier by the large numbers of black voters who have settled in Baton Rouge and the surrounding area after Hurricane Katrina. At this time however, Baker seems unlikely to run for Senate.

Maine

Maine's 1st congressional district— Representative Tom Allen is running for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Susan Collins in 2008. Democrats would be favored to hold this seat but would not be assured of victory; John Kerry won 55% here in 2004. Democrats who have already announced include: State Senator Ethan Strimling, and former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, who ran against Collins in 2002, and Iraq War veteran Adam Cote [36]. Possible Democratic candidates include: former State Senator Michael Brennen, York County and District Attorney Mark Lawrence. On the Republican side, small businessman Dean Scontras and Northeast Small Business Administration director Charlie Summers have both formed exploratory committees. Other possible Republican entrants include: former State Representative Darlene Curley, who ran in 2006, and State Senator Jonathan Courtney. Possible Maine Green to enter the race is former state house rep. John Eder.

Maryland

Maryland's 1st congressional district- Wayne Gilchrest (R) may face a tough primary as a result of his vote for the bill to set a timetable on the Iraq War. Only 2 Republicans voted for the bill, which passed 218-to-212. The race may become competitive if Gilchrest is defeated in the primary. Gilchrest is a moderate Republican who may run for the U.S. Senate in 2010, and also voted on April 25, 2007 for another Democratic Iraq War bill which passed 218-208. State Senator Andrew P. Harris is challenging him in the GOP primary and has been endorsed by the Club for Growth ^[34] and is backed by former Governor Bob Ehrlich though he has not formally endorsed him ^[35]. Among Democrats, Queen Anne's County State Attorney Frank Kratovil has announced he will run, he has been endorsed by Governor Martin O'Malley, and Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot. George W. Bush won with 62% here in 2004.

Maryland's 4th congressional district— Coming off a close primary against political upstart Donna Edwards in 2006, Al Wynn (D) may again face a competitive primary in 2008, although there will be little competition in the general election as the district is overwhelmingly Democratic. Edwards recently announced her intention to run again in 2008.

Maryland's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Roscoe Bartlett (R) may retire. His district is one of the more Republican seats in heavily Democratic Maryland, and includes several western cities such as Frederick and Hagerstown. Bartlett will be 82 in 2008, and received 58% in 2006, nine points smaller than his 2004 showing, against little-known opponent Andrew Duck. Duck may run again in 2008. In a surprise, former Cumberland Mayor Frank K. Nethken announced that he would be a candidate for the GOP nomination even if Bartlett sought reelection.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts's 1st congressional district— John Olver (D) may retire. Olver's district comprises western Massachusetts. He will be 72 in 2008. Kerry won 63% here.

Massachusetts's 5th congressional district— Martin T. Meehan (D) resigned on July 1, 2007, leaving vacant the seat that he had held since January 1993. A special election will be held on October 16, 2007, to decide his replacement. Niki Tsongas (D), widow of former Congressman and Senator Paul Tsongas, will face Republican Jim Ogonowski, brother of 9/11 Pilot John Ogonowski. There are also 2 Independents running for the seat as well as a Constitution Party candidate. Tsongas is heavily favored to win as Massachusetts has not elected a Republican to either house of Congress since the defeat of Peter G. Torkildsen and Peter I. Blute in the 1996 elections. Furthermore, no Republican has held this particular seat since Paul W. Cronin left office in 1975 after Paul Tsongas defeated him.^[36]

Michigan

Michigan's 1st congressional district— Bart Stupak (D) has a record that is popular in this Upper Peninsula district at the northern end of the state. He is pro-labor on economics but socially conservative. However, it is possible that he will face a serious opponent in 2008. State Rep Tom Caperston (R) is mulling a candidacy ^{[citation needed]} and has a reputation as a good campaigner.^{[citation needed]} In fact, when he was elected to the state legislature in 2002, he defeated Menominee Mayor Laurie Stupak, who is none other than Bart Stupak's wife. Caperston is term-limited ^{[citation needed]} and Republicans are trying to persuade him to run for Congress.^{[citation needed]} Bush won 53% to 46% in 2004.

Michigan's 3rd congressional district— Vernon Ehlers (R) may retire in 2008, when he will be 74.^{[citation needed]} His district includes the Grand Rapids area and was once represented by Gerald Ford. This district is solidly Republican, giving Bush 60%in 2004.

Michigan's 5th congressional district— Dale E. Kildee (D) may retire. ^{[citation needed]} His district is centered around the Flint area. Kildee will be 79 in 2008. Kerry won 59% here.

Michigan's 6th congressional district— Fred Upton (R) may face a tough race in this swing district that Bush narrowly won with 53% to 47% in 2004. Some Democrats think that Upton has managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1993) because he had never faced a strong opponent.

Michigan's 7th congressional district— Tim Walberg (R) won this Republican-leaning district (which went to Bush with 54% to 45% in 2004) with 51% of the vote in 2006 after defeating freshman incumbent Joe Schwarz with financial backing from the conservative Club for Growth. He could face a tough race in 2008, especially if Schwarz challenges him as a Democrat. 2006 nominee Sharon Reiner has announced she will run again. Former State Senator Jim Berryman will also run against Walberg. State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer will also run.

Michigan's 9th congressional district— In January 2006, Joe Knollenberg (R) announced his intent to seek re-election in 2008. Knollenberg spent $2.7 million to keep his seat in the House.^[37] Although his past Democratic opponents have not received support from the national party, the seat has now been identified as a "target" for the Democrats in 2008,^[38] as the DCCC is targeting districts where Republicans garnered less than 55% of the vote.^[39] Knollenberg, who will be 75 in 2008, won only 52% of the vote in 2006 in this eastern Oakland County district that gave George W. Bush only 50% of the vote in 2004 and is far from the Republican stronghold it once was. The district was once the most Republican in Metro Detroit, having sent Knollenberg's predecessor, Republican Bill Broomfield, to Congress for 36 years. The only Democrat to officially announce a candidacy is state Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters, the 2002 Democratic nominee for state Attorney General and former State Senator.^[40] Attorney Rhonda Ross is also running as a Democrat. Other possible candidates include State Senator Gilda Jacobs, and radio talk show hostess Nancy Skinner, who was Knollenberg's 2006 opponent.

Michigan's 11th congressional district— Thad McCotter (R) won 54% of the vote in 2006. His district, which covers suburban areas of Wayne and Oakland counties in Metro Detroit, went to Bush with only 52% in 2004. One possible Democratic opponent is state Senator Gilda Jacobs.

Michigan's 12th congressional district— Sander Levin (D), brother of senator Carl Levin, may retire.^{[citation needed]} He will be 77 in 2008. If Levin does retire, one possible candidate for his seat would be his son, Andy Levin,^{[citation needed]} who very narrowly lost an election to the State Senate in 2006. Another potential Democratic candidate for this seat if Levin retires would be State Senator Gilda Jacobs. Democrats would be favored to hold this district,^{[citation needed]} which Kerry won with 61%.

Michigan's 14th congressional district— John Conyers (D), the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, may retire.^{[citation needed]} Conyers' district centered around heavily Democratic Detroit and includes Dearborn. Conyers will be 79 in 2008.

Michigan's 15th congressional district— John Dingell (D) is the Dean of the House, having served 26 terms successively and winning 88% of the vote in 2006. The Chairman of the House Energy & Commerce Committee, Dingell, who will be 82 in 2008, may retire.^{[citation needed]} His son, former state Senator and current Wayne County Circuit Court Judge Christopher Dingell, would be a potential candidate to succeed him.^{[citation needed]} John Kerry won with 62% here.

Minnesota

Minnesota's 1st congressional district— Bush barely won this southern Minnesota district with 51% to 48% for John Kerry in 2004, which DFLer Tim Walz won in 2006. Walz could face a tough race, as he unseated 12-year incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht by 53% to 47%. Another potential Republican candidate is Lieutenant Governor Carol Molnau. Former state Senate Minority Leader Dick Day formed an exploratory committee in February 2007 and state Representative Randy Demmer has also announced.

Minnesota's 2nd congressional district— John Kline (R) may face a tough race in this swing district that George W. Bush narrowly won with 53% to 45% for John Kerry in 2004. Some Democrats think that Kline had never faced a strong opponent ever since he defeated incumbent Democrat Bill Luther to win this seat in 2002 (after the redistricting that followed the 2000 Census occurred). Former State Senator Sharon Marko may run as well as 2006 nominee Coleen Rowley.

Minnesota's 3rd congressional district— Jim Ramstad (R) is retiring and will not seek a tenth term;^[41] this is likely to be a very tough race as George W. Bush barely won with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004. Some Democrats think that Ramstad had managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1991) because he had never faced a strong opponent and because of his very moderate social positions.^[41] State Senator Terri Bonoff has announced her candidacy [37]. Another possible Democratic candidate is State Rep. Melissa Hortmann. Among Republicans, state Rep. Erik Paulsen is seriously considering running, and state Senators Geoff Michel and Warren Limmer are possible candidates, as well.

Minnesota's 5th congressional district— Keith Ellison (DFL) may face a primary challenge perhaps because the district's previous representative, Martin Sabo, refused to endorse him, emblematic of contention among local DFLers over Ellison's nomination. Also, he won only 55% in his first race despite John Kerry winning 71% of the vote in the district, although Ellison did defeat both his closest rivals, Alan Fine (R) and Tammy Lee (I), by a commanding 34 points. His district is based in Minneapolis.

Minnesota's 6th congressional district- Michelle Bachman (R) was one of the GOP's success stories in 2006, defeating Patty Wetterling (DFL) by a larger-than-expected margin. But she recently got bad press when she claimed that Iran had a secret plan to partition Iraq, but was unable to produce evidence. This has won her the attention of the Democrats, who have now targeted her for defeat. The DCCC has approached state Senator Tarryl Clark and Stearns County Attorney Janelle Kendall into running. Former U.S. Senator Dean Barkley has expressed interest as running on the Independence Party of Minnesota ticket. Bush won here with 56% to 44% in 2004.

Minnesota's 7th congressional district— Collin Peterson (D) may face a tough race in this district that Bush won by a 14-point margin in 2004 (57% for Bush to 43% for Kerry). Although he is a moderate Democrat, who has defeated the Republican candidates by wide margins.

Minnesota's 8th congressional district— Jim Oberstar (DFL) may retire. His district is based in Duluth. Oberstar will be 74 in 2008. If he retires, former U.S. Sen. Rod Grams, who was defeated by Oberstar in 2006, may run again for the seat. Kerry won 53% here in 2004.

Mississippi

Mississippi's 3rd congressional district - Incumbent Chip Pickering is retiring. The district includes the cities of Meridian, Starkville,Pearl, and Natchez, as well as a portion of Jackson. Bush won the district with 65% of the vote in 2004. On the Republican side, Mississippi state Director for USDA Rural Development John Rounsaville, a former Pickering aide, has announced his resignation and plans to run [38]. Other possible Republican candidates include Deputy Director of the Mississippi Development Authority Whit Hughes, former Press Secretary to the office of Governor Heath Hall, state Senator Charlie Ross, state Senator Dean Kirby, and former Public Service Commissioner Mike Callahan. For the Democrats, former Gene Taylor (D) aide Shawn Bullard is mentioned. He is a former TV journalist in Biloxi who is now president of the Duetto Group in Arlington. Former U.S. Representative Ronnie Shows and Natchez Mayor Phillip West are also possible Democratic candidates.

Missouri

Missouri's 4th congressional district— Democratic incumbent Ike Skelton, will be 77 in 2008. If he were to retire, Republicans would have a shot at winning this rural, conservative district in west-central Missouri in which Bush won 63% in 2004, but Skelton is unlikely to retire since he has become chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.

Missouri's 6th congressional district— Democrats hope to wage a competitive campaign against Republican U.S. Representative Sam Graves. They have recruited former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes, who refused to run in 2006 but is rumored to regret that decision. Barnes announced her candidacy on May 13, 2007 [39]. Bush won 57% here in 2004.

Missouri's 9th congressional district— Republican incumbent Kenny Hulshof is seeking to become President of the University of Missouri [40]. Hulshof is also a possible choice for President of Bradley University. If he succeeds, there will be a special election to replace him. The district, covering roughly the northeastern portion of Missouri, is conservative and votes for Republicans more often than not, but it's not politically secure for Republicans. Names mentioned include state Senator Chuck Graham, state Senator Wes Shoemyer, and state Representative Judy Baker. Possible Republican candidates include Boone County Judge Kevin Crane, state Representative Steve Hobbs, and prominent businessman Greg Steinhoff, who is currently Director of the state Department of Economic Development. Bush won 58% here in 2004.

Montana

Montana's at-large congressional district- Four-term Republican incumbent Denny Rehberg is generally popular in Montana and would be a solid favorite for reelection if he wants it, though not a sure winner. There is speculation that he may run for the U.S. Senate against Max Baucus, whom he nearly unseated in 1996 in spite of being outspent by a 3-to-1 margin. However, on July 6,2007, Rehberg announced he will run for re-election. Yellowstone County Commissioner Bill Kennedy plans to run regardless of Rehberg's decision. Other Democrats thinking of running include Jim Foley, Executive Assistant Vice President for the University of Montana, State Democratic Party Chair Dennis McDonald, state Senator Jesse Laslovich, and state Representative Dan Villa. Bush won 59% here in 2004.

Opinion polling

Source	Date	Rehberg (R)	Kennedy (D)	Undecided
http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2007/07/02/news/local/news03.txt	June 25-27, 2007	62%	30%	8%

Nebraska

Nebraska's 1st congressional district- Two-term Republican incumbent Jeff Fortenberry was reelected in 2006 with some difficulty against Maxine Moul, but still improved on his showing from 2004. Moul may run again in 2008. A strong conservative, Fortenberry was mentioned as a potential U.S Senate candidate if Senator Chuck Hagel retired. Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) announced he will seek the seat, even if Hagel runs for another term. But when Hagel now retiring and former Governor Mike Johanns a likely candidate, it is expected that Fortenberry will run for reelection.

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district- When Republican incumbent Lee Terry won his first term in 1998, he had promised to limit himself to three terms. Almost immediately after winning, he announced he was going back on his word. He was thought to have overcome that issue after winning comfortably in 2004 against a credible opponent. But in 2006, he won by 55% to 45%, by far the weakest showing of his career, against Jim Esch, a political unknown who ran an under-the-radar grassroots campaign. Esch said shortly after losing the race that he would likely run again in 2008. Bush won 60% here in 2004.

Nebraska's 3rd congressional district- Republican incumbent Adrian M. Smith won his first term with only 54% in a district that gave George W. Bush 75% in 2004. Democrats might look to run against Smith in 2008, but Smith is going to be pretty hard to unseat in a presidential year because of the district's heavy conservative lean. Also, Smith might be opposed in the primary by another Republican on the basis of Smith's weak electability and weak electoral strength. One possible Democratic candidate is Scott Kleeb, the Democratic nominee for the seat in 2006 who made a pretty impressive showing in the district by winning 46% despite the district's heavy conservative lean.

Nevada

Nevada's 2nd congressional district— Republican Dean Heller was elected to this seat with 50% of the vote in 2006. He could face a serious challenge in 2008, especially if newly elected state Treasurer Kate Marshall decides to challenge him, as some speculate. He may also face University of Nevada Regent Jill Derby, his 2006 opponent, who has since become Chair of the Nevada Democratic Party. Assemblywoman Debbie Smith is also considered a possible candidate. Bush won 57% here in 2004.

Nevada's 3rd congressional district— Republican Jon Porter won by only 48% to 46% in 2006 against a former aide to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and 54% in 2004. Porter could face another tough race in this suburban Las Vegas district. George W. Bush barely won this district with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004. An announced candidates are CPA and Fraud Examiner Andrew Martin, and Clark County prosecutor Robert J. Daskas. Other possible Democratic opponents are Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, son of U.S. Senator and Majority Leader of the Senate Harry Reid and State Senator Maggie Carlton.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire's 1st congressional district— Democrat Carol Shea-Porter squeaked into Congress with 51% of the vote to 49% for incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley – who in January 2007 announced that he would seek a rematch with Shea-Porter in 2008 – in one of the greatest upsets of the 2006 election cycle. George W. Bush narrowly won her district with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004. Shea-Porter has continued her very vocal anti-war stance in office and may be fueling Republican interest in regaining the seat.

New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Paul Hodes upended Republican incumbent Charlie Bass in 2006, taking a 53% to 45% victory in a district John Kerry narrowly won with 52% in 2004. Given that New Hampshire has traditionally leaned Republican – though it has been trending more Democratic recently – the GOP might look to oppose Hodes. Possible candidates include former state Senator Bruce Keough, state Senator Bob Clegg, venture capitalist Stephen Gray, and former state Senator Chuck Morse.

New Jersey

New Jersey's 1st congressional district— Democrat Rob Andrews could run for the Senate seat held by Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg should Lautenberg retire, even though Lautenberg has stated his intention to run for reelection. The district, based in Camden, is strongly Democratic. Kerry won 61% here in 2004. If Andrews seeks re-election he should win it easily.

New Jersey's 2nd congressional district— Republican Frank LoBiondo has never had trouble winning reelection in this South Jersey district, based in Atlantic City and Cape May County, but Democrats are trying to recruit state Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew, a consistently strong vote-getter in a Republican-leaning legislative district. Bush narrowly won here with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004. However, in 2000, Al Gore won this district by a wide margin (54% for Gore to 43% for Bush).

New Jersey's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Jim Saxton may face a tough race in this swing district that George W. Bush barely won with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004. Also, Al Gore won his district by a wide margin in 2000. Some Democrats think that Saxton has managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1984) because he had never faced a strong opponent. State Senator John Adler has announced he will challenge Saxton as a Democrat and could be a formitable challenger [41].

New Jersey's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Republican Chris Smith may face a tough race in this swing district that George W. Bush won with 55% to 45% for John Kerry in 2004. Also, Al Gore won his district by a wide margin in 2000. Some Democrats think that Smith has managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1981) because he had never faced a strong opponent. Child Advocate Attorney Amy Vasquez is running as a Democrat. Possible Democratic candidates include Assistant State Assembly Majority Leader Reed Gusciora, Hamilton Township Mayor Glen Gilmore

New Jersey's 5th congressional district- Republican Scott Garrett won by less than expected (55%-44%) in this Republican-leaning district in Northwestern New Jersey that gave George W. Bush 57% of the vote in 2004. The Democrats are expected to contest this seat in 2008. Two announced candidates are civil rights attorney Camile Abate and psychologist and Rabbi Dennis Shulman. 2006 candidate Paul Arohnson is not running, and the DCCC is looking to recruit Paramus Mayor James Tedesco to run. Another possible Democratic candidate is Mayor of Ogdensburg Jim Sekelsky.

New Jersey's 7th congressional district— Republican Mike Ferguson barely won his re-election bid in 2006, edging state Assemblywoman Linda Stender by 50% to 48%. George W. Bush narrowly won this district with 53% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004. Stender is likely to run, and has been raising money.

New Jersey's 8th congressional district— Democrat Bill Pascrell Jr. may retire. Pascrell will be 71 in 2008. Kerry won 59% here in 2004.

New Jersey's 10th congressional district— Democrat Don Payne, who is often described as the most consistently liberal member of New Jersey's congressional delegation, may retire. Payne's district is the most Democratic in the state, centered around Newark. It gave John Kerry 82% of the vote in 2004. Payne will be 74 in 2008.

New Mexico

New Mexico's 1st congressional district— The 2006 race between incumbent Republican Heather Wilson and Democratic state Attorney General Patricia Madrid was a cliffhanger, with Wilson being reelected by 861 votes. John Kerry narrowly won this Albuquerque-based district with 52% in 2004. With the retirement of longtime U.S. Senator Pete Domenici, Wilson is now a candidate for the U.S. Senate [42]. On the Democratic side, Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich is already an announced candidate, though he may now have primary competition. Madrid would be considered a potential candidate, as is Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, but they might instead run for the U.S. Senate. Other Democrats thinking of running include Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg, state Auditor Hector Balderas, state Representative Al Park, New Mexico Health Secretary Michelle Grisham, and former Congressional aide Terry Brunner. Possible Republican candidates include Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and state Senator Justine Fox. This will be one of the most expensive and hotly contested Congressional races in the nation.

New Mexico's 2nd congressional district- Republican incumbent Steve Pearce had a somewhat difficult reelection in this conservative, southeastern New Mexico district last year, but won with 60%. The area is usually Republican-voting, but Democrats sometimes win elections here. Pearce is being opposed by Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, who runs the New Mexico Rural Development Response Council, which works on economic development projects in small, economically struggling communities. Other Democrats thinking of running include retired Presbyterian minister Al Kissling, the Democratic nominee against Pearce in 2006, and state Representative Joseph Cervantes. Bush won here with 58% to 42% for John Kerry in 2004. With U.S. Senator Pete Domenici retiring in 2008, Pearce has been mentioned as a possible candidate.

New York

New York's 1st congressional district- Timothy Bishop (D) was first elected in 2002. A former academic, Bishop has compiled a solid liberal voting record. This East End district retains a strong independent streak, and Bishop, who enjoys strong backing from Newsday, may be vulnerable to a moderate Republican. Bush won this district with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004.

New York's 3rd congressional district— Peter King (R) won 56% of the vote in 2006 against a credible opponent. King is the only congressional Republican on Long Island, which has been historically Republican. George W. Bush won here in 2004 with 52%, but Governor Eliot Spitzer carried the district handily in 2006. The has been some talk that Fran Drescher, star of the TV show The Nanny, may oppose King in 2008.[43]

New York's 4th congressional district- Incumbent Carolyn McCarthy (D) may retire. Her district is based in west-central Nassau County. McCarthy will be 64 in 2008. The district leans Democratic in national elections (Kerry won this district with 55% in 2004), but often supports Republican candidates in local elections.

New York's 10th congressional district— Incumbent Ed Towns (D) may retire. His district is based in Brooklyn and is overwhelmingly Democratic. Towns will be 74 in 2008. A potential Democratic successor is State Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries. Jeffries recently ramped up his fundraising efforts, in a sign that there might be a race to succeed Towns in the near future.

New York's 13th congressional district— Staten Island Republican Vito Fossella won 57% of the vote here in 2006 in what is arguably the most Republican area of heavily Democratic New York City. There should be no surprise if Democrats try to make an attempt to sweep NYC, including Staten Island, in 2008. 2006 Candidate Steve Harrison is running again. New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia, who represents a tiny part of the Brooklyn portion of the district in the Council, but doesn't live in Fossella's district is also considering a candidacy ^[42] George W. Bush won this district with 55% to 45% for John Kerry in 2004.

New York's 18th congressional district— Incumbent Nita Lowey (D) may retire. Lowey's district is centered around the northern suburbs of New York City mainly in Westchester County. Lowey will be 71 in 2008. It is a non majority district with a makeup of approximately 40% Democrat, 35% Independent, and 25% Republican. While it would be difficult, a moderate Republican with substantial backing could conceivably carry this district. This would be very difficult in the current political climate for the GOP, and could be practically impossible should Hillary Clinton become the Democratic nominee for President. Conversely, were Rudy Giuliani the Republican presidential nominee their chances to win an open seat here would be greatly improved

New York's 19th congressional district— Populist folk singer John Hall (D) won a major upset by 6,000 votes in 2006, defeating long incumbent Republican Sue Kelly in this historically Republican district; Kelly was head of the House Page Board in 1998 and was damaged by the Mark Foley scandal. George W. Bush won this district in the Hudson Valley that is home to West Point with 53% of the vote to 45% of the vote for John Kerry in 2004. Current opponents include Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board Chairman Andrew Saul, and Iraq War veteran Kieran Michael Lalor. Saul's campaign recently drew attention when he outraised the freshman incumbent Hall in the second quarter of 2007. Saul is also very wealthy and could pose a formidable challenge. The National Republican Congressional Committee, which has targeted Hall, described Saul as a "top recruit".

New York's 20th congressional district— Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand defeated Republican incumbent John Sweeney in 2006 by 53% to 47%, the same margin with which George W. Bush won this district, which includes the north Hudson Valley and Saratoga Springs, in 2004. Republicans have identified Gillibrand as a top target for 2008, as they believe that Sweeney's personal issues caused his defeat, not a change in voter behavior in this traditional GOP stronghold. Also, Gillibrand's victory was the 15th Democratic pickup that resulted in the Democrats' takeover of the House, as her party needed 15 seats to take over. Gillibrand is drawing a primary challenge from Democrat Morris Guller. Her vulnerability has drawn numerous potential candidates to challenge her in the general election. Former New York Secretary of State Alexander Treadwell who also served as Chairman of the state GOP, former Mayoral aide Richard Wagner, who has also raised a considerable war chest early in the race, and Army speical forces member Michael R. Rocque have announced their candidacies. In addition, ex-Congressman Sweeney; former State Assemblyman and 2006 gubernatorial candidate John Faso, who was also nearly elected state Controller in 2002, Saratoga County District Attorney Jim Murphy III; state Senator Elizabeth Little; state Assemblyman Roy McDonald; and real estate broker John Wallace, who is an ex-New York State Trooper, have been mentioned as possible candidates. . Gillibrand has raised over half a million dollars so far for her re-election, a total matched by Treadwell, who will have a difficult campaign ahead of him to stand out amongst a crowded field.

New York's 22nd congressional district— Incumbent Maurice Hinchey, a liberal Democrat, may retire. Hinchey's district is comprised mainly of the Binghamton and Ithaca areas. Hinchey will be 70 in 2008. John Kerry won 54% here in 2004.

New York's 23rd congressional district— Incumbent John McHugh is thinking of retiring [44]. He has expressed dissatisfaction with Congress lately, and that was before Democrats won control of the U.S. House of Representatives. His district is in the northernmost part of New York on the border of Canada, including the city of Waterstown . The district is solidly Republican in most elections, but is also economically ailing.

New York's 24th congressional district— Democrat Mike Arcuri won his first term with 54% of the vote in a marginal but Democratic-trending district which includes Utica. The district gave George W. Bush 50% of the vote in 2000 and 52% of the vote in 2004. Former state Senator Ray Meier, Arcuri's 2006 opponent, is thinking of running again [45].

New York's 25th congressional district— Incumbent Jim Walsh (R) won by 51% to 49% in 2006 in a Democratic-leaning district that includes Syracuse. Syracuse Mayor Matthew Driscoll announced that he would serve out his term as Mayor until December of 2009, effectively ending speculation that he would seek Walsh's Congressional seat [46]. In 2004, Walsh was the only unopposed Republican to represent a district that voted for John Kerry. Walsh's 2006 Democratic opponent, Dan Maffei, has announced that he would seek a rematch.^[43] John Kerry won 53% here in 2004.

New York's 26th congressional district— Republican Tom Reynolds, the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee and a key player in the Mark Foley scandal, won by 52% to 48% in 2006. His challenger, frequent candidate Jack Davis, was not considered an especially strong opponent. This historically Republican district, nestled in the wealthy suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, gave George W. Bush 55% of the vote; however Reynolds may still be endangered in 2008 if he faces a more serious candidate, but on the other hand, he will not face issues related to the handling of the Mark Foley page scandal, which nearly cost him his seat in 2006. A potential Democrat who is held to be stronger than Davis is Iraq War Veteran Jonathan Powers. In June 2007 Powers declared his candidacy.

New York's 28th congressional district— Incumbent Louise McIntosh Slaughter (D) may retire. She will be 79 in 2008. Kerry won 63% here in this district that stretches across the northwest coastline of upstate New York between the Rochester and Buffalo areas, including Niagara Falls.

New York's 29th congressional district— Republican Randy Kuhl had a close race in 2006, surviving a challenge from Democrat Eric Massa by a 51% to 49% margin. His Elmira and suburban Rochester district gave Bush 56% in 2004. Massa has said he will run again in 2008. Despite his district being the most Republican in New York, Kuhl is considered a weak incumbent who has had multiple difficult reelections in the past.

North Carolina

North Carolina's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge might face a tough race in this Republican-leaning district that Bush carried by a 10-point margin in 2004 (55% for Bush to 45% for John Kerry). Etheridge hasn't had a close race since his first, in 1996.^[44]

North Carolina's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Walter Jones, Jr., a conservative former Democrat, represents a solidly Republican-voting coastal district. However, his increasingly outspoken opposition to the Bush Administration's policy regarding the Iraq War has angered some pro-war conservatives. As a result, he faces a credible primary challenge. Onslow County Commissioner Joseph R. McLaughlin, a former infantry officer, is running ^[45]. McLaughlin has denounced the incumbent's anti-war stance, believing it isn't helpful to the war effort. The victor of the primary would seem to be a shoo-in for the general election (George W. Bush won here by a wide margin in both 2000 and 2004), but Democrat and U.S. Marine Corps veteran Marshall Adame is also running.^[46]

North Carolina's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Howard Coble (R) may retire. The district is comprised mostly of rural areas surrounded by the Greensboro, Raleigh and Charlotte metropolitan areas. Coble will be 77 in 2008. If Coble does retire, a possible Republican choice would be state Representative Laura I. Wiley. Coble's district is solidly Republican (George W. Bush won here by a wide margin in both 2000 and 2004).

North Carolina's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre could face a tough race in this Republican-leaning district that Bush carried by a 14-point margin in 2004 (57% for Bush to 43% for John Kerry). McIntyre has been re-elected overwhelmingly in each election since 1998.^[47]

North Carolina's 8th congressional district— Republican Robin Hayes barely hung on in his 2006 re-election bid against Democrat Larry Kissell by a 329-vote margin. This seat likely will be competitive again in 2008 because of Hayes' vote for CAFTA, which he first opposed but voted for because of pressure from House Republican leaders. Kissell has already declared his candidacy for the 2008 race, and his most well-known potential opponent, state Rep. Rick Glazier, opted not to run.^[48] Bush carried this district by a 10-point margin in 2004 (55% for Bush to 45% for John Kerry).

North Carolina's 10th congressional district — Incumbent Republican Patrick McHenry is the favorite to win the general election in this heavily Republican district, provided he does not face opposition in the primary. One Democrat, Daniel Johnson, is publicly exploring a run.^[49] A wild card is an attempted independent run by Constitution Party-supported Bryan Greene of Lenoir, NC. ^[50] It is unclear what effect, if any, the indictment of a former McHenry campaign aide for election fraud will have. ^[51] In 2006, McHenry defeated Democrat Richard Carsner by a smaller margin than the margin in his 2004 win. ^[52]

North Carolina's 11th congressional district— Democrat Heath Shuler won 54% to 46% against scandal-plagued incumbent Charles Taylor in 2006, in a district that gave 57% of its vote to George W. Bush and 43% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. The district includes the western areas of North Carolina, including Asheville. This race could be competitive, but Shuler's social conservatism and economic populism should help his chances at reelection, even in a GOP-leaning district. Taylor is considering a rematch.^[53] Other possible Republican candidates include Buncombe County Commissioner Nathan Ramsey and attorney John Armor.^[54] Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower and Henderson County Republican Party chairman Spence Campbell are the only declared Republican candidates.^[55] ^[56]

North Dakota

North Dakota's at-large congressional district— Earl Pomeroy (D-NPL) represents a heavily Republican state, although it often supports Democrats in Federal elections. In 2006, he won his largest victory yet, but could be a target of the GOP in 2008. Current Republican Governor John Hoeven, who is extremely popular in North Dakota, could run against Pomeroy in 2008. Bush won the state with 61% in 2004.

Ohio

Ohio's 1st congressional district— Republican Steve Chabot won by 52% to 48% in 2006, compared to 60% to 40% in 2004. His district barely went to George W. Bush with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 and includes the western portion of the Cincinnati area. State House Democratic Whip Steve Driehaus is running for the Democratic nomination. Driehaus' FEC report at the end of the second quarter of 2007 showed contributions from political committees linked to a large number of national leaders of the Democratic party.^[33]

Ohio's 2nd congressional district— Republican Jean Schmidt barely held on by a 51% to 49% margin against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Her district is a heavily Republican one, covering the eastern portions of Greater Cincinnati. Bush won 64% here in 2004. Wulsin has declared her intention to run again.

Ohio's 3rd congressional district— Republican Mike Turner, a former Mayor of Dayton, won his last race with 58% of the vote. However, some Democrats think that he has never faced strong competition. Turner's seat was previously held by Democrat Tony P. Hall for 24 years. One potential Democratic candidate would be Rhine McLin, the current Mayor of Dayton. This Dayton-based district narrowly went for Bush with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004.

Ohio's 5th congressional district— Republican incumbent Paul Gillmor passed away on September 5, 2007, creating an unexpected vacancy. His district, comprised of much of northwestern Ohio, is solidly Republican in most elections. Republican candidates include conservative state Senator Stephen Buehrer and State Representative Bob Latta who narrowly lost to Gillmore in the 1988 Republican primary and whose father was Gillmore's predecessor [47].

Ohio's 7th congressional district— Republican David Hobson may retire. Hobson's district stretches from Springfield in the Dayton area eastward to several outer southern areas of Columbus. Hobson will be 72 in 2008. Bush won 57% here. 2006 Democratic challenger William Conner is running again in 2008.

Ohio's 10th congressional district— Democrat Dennis Kucinich may retire to run for President, a race he has already entered. Kucinich will be 62 in 2008. In 2004, John Kerry won 60% of the vote in this district. Kucinich is facing a primary challenge from Parma Mayor Dean DePiero and former minority leader of the Ohio House of Representatives, and teacher and antiwar activist Rosemary Palmer.

Ohio's 12th congressional district— Republican Pat Tiberi faced an expensive race in 2006 against one of this district’s former congressmen, Democrat Bob Shamansky, who briefly served in the early 1980s, but survived with 58% of the vote. George W. Bush barely won this district with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004.

Ohio's 14th congressional district— Republican Steve LaTourette, whose district is centered around suburban Cleveland, won 58% of the vote in 2006 against a weak opponent.^{[citation needed]} He represents a swing district where no party has a clear advantage over the other. Bush won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry. Appeals Court Judge William O'Neill is running for the Democratic nomination. 2006 challenger Lewis Katz may seek a rematch.

Ohio's 15th congressional district— Republican Deborah Pryce survived the toughest race of her career against Democratic Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy by 1,062 votes. Pryce is not running for reelection in 2008. Mary Jo Kilroy has announced that she will run again. George W. Bush barely won here in 2004 with 50.3% to 49.7% for John Kerry.

Ohio's 16th congressional district— Longtine Republican Congressman Ralph Regula may retire. Regula, whose district includes the Canton area, garnered only 58% in the 2006 Republican primary against lesser-known Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller. Miller has announced that he will run again [48]. Regula will be 84 in 2008. If he does retire, his son, former Stark County Commissioner Richard Regula would be a potential Republican candidate to succeed him, as would state Senator Kirk Schuring. Democratic state Senator John Boccieri has announced that he will run regardless of Regula's decision [49]. This district went for Bush with 53% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004.

Ohio's 18th congressional district— Democrat Zack Space may be vulnerable in 2008 as his district, located in southeastern Ohio, went to George W. Bush with 57% to 43% for John Kerry in 2004, although Space won his first term in 2006 with 62% of the vote. Republicans were forced to select a new candidate, state Senator Joy Padgett, after Rep. Bob Ney dropped out of the race following his conviction in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal. It turned out that Padgett had financial controversies of her own. =

Oregon

Oregon's 2nd congressional district— There has been speculation among Oregon Republicans that Greg Walden, the incumbent Republican in this district, may not seek re-election to get a head start on a campaign for Governor in 2010. This district is based in Eastern Oregon and is heavily Republican. A potential Republican successor would be state Senator Jason Atkinson, who ran a credible race for Governor in 2006, losing the Republican primary but polling better than expected. This district would be very difficult for any Democrat to win, but one who could have a chance in an open seat race would be onetime Republican State Senator Ben Westlund, though he may run for U.S. Senate or state Treasurer in 2008 instead. 2006 challenger Carol Voisin may run again. Bush won 60% here in 2004.

Oregon's 5th congressional district— Democrat Darlene Hooley may face a competitive race this marginal Willamette Valley district George W. Bush barely won with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004, while Hooley received 53% of the vote. She was reelected in 2006 with 54% to her closest opponent's 43%. There has been speculation in the past that Hooley would retire, though this seems unlikely now that Democrats in the majority in the House. Her 2006 Republican opponent, businessman Mike Erickson, is seriously thinking of running again [50].

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district— Republican Phil English could have a test in 2008, as he represents an Erie-based district that gave George W. Bush 53% of the vote and 47% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. Also, in 2006, English received 54% of the vote against a political newcomer with no political experience. The DCCC has recruited Erie County Councilman Kyle Foust to run against English. 2006 opponent Dr. Steven Porter may seek a rematch.

Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district— Democrat Jason Altmire defeated Republican incumbent Melissa Hart in a 52% to 48% upset, as Hart had won 63% of the vote in 2004, when George W. Bush carried this suburban Pittsburgh district with 53% to 45% for John Kerry. In 2006, Pennsylvania was perhaps the most disastrous state for incumbent GOP House members, who lost four seats here. Former Allegheny County Commissioner Ron Francis has declared his candidacy. Football Hall of Famer and 2006 GOP gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann was considering a run, but decided against it. Hart has stated that she is planning to run against Altmire again.

Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district— Republican Jim Gerlach survived threats from wealthy attorney Lois Murphy in 2004 and 2006 with 51% each year and could face another for his suburban Philadelphia district in 2008, which went to John Kerry with 51% in 2004. One possible candidate would be Dan Wofford, his near-successful 2002 opponent, who is thought to be a more credible and stronger opponent than Murphy. Wofford has since ruled out a bid. Other potential candidates would be State Senator Andrew Dinniman , State rep. Mike Gerber and actress Melissa Fitzgerald, who portrayed the character of Carol Fitzpatrick on the political drama The West Wing.

Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district— First-term Democrat Joe Sestak will likely face a challenge from the GOP for this Delaware County-based district outside of Philadelphia that went to John Kerry with 53% in 2004 and was previously represented by Republican Curt Weldon, who has become the focus of a recent FBI lobbying investigation. Sestak defeated Weldon 56% to 44%. Possible Republican candidates include wealthy realtor Tim Pulte and State Department Attorney Steve Elliot [51]. Sestak has drawn bad press since taking office. He was criticized for employing a staffer with ties to a Saudi-funded Isalmic group, the Council on American Islamic Relations, which has been accused of having terrorist ties [52]. More recently, he has been noted for the high turnover and low morale of his Congressional staff [53], some of whom have claimed ill treatment by him. Sestak was also forced to admit that he received campaign funds from Norman Hsu [54], who was a fugitive from justice in a fraud conviction [55].

Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district— This Bucks County district voted for John Kerry with 51% in 2004 and was narrowly won by Democrat Pat Murphy in 2006, when Murphy unseated one-term Republican Mike Fitzpatrick by 1,521 votes. Fitzpatrick may look to oppose Murphy again for this suburban Philadelphia district.

Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district— Chris Carney (D) may face a difficult reelection bid in this heavily Republican district he won after widely-publicized allegations of incumbent Republican Don Sherwood’s extramarital affair with and alleged abuse of Cynthia Ore, who later settled for an undisclosed amount. Carney defeated Sherwood 53% to 47%. Possible Republican opponents include US Attorney Tom Marino, state Senator Lisa Baker, state Representative Karen Boback, state Representative Brett Feese, Kingston Mayor Jim Haggerty, and former U.S. Justice Department official Joe Peters, who ran for state Auditor in 2006. Bush won here 60% to 40% for John Kerry.

Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district— Incumbent Paul Kanjorski (D) may retire. Kanjorski's district is centered around the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area. Kanjorski will be 71 in 2008. John Kerry won 53% here. Republican Hazelton Mayor Louis Barletta, a border security advocate who ran in 2002, is rumored to be considering another run.

Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district— Incumbent John Murtha (D) might retire, but such a move is less likely now given that he ran for Majority Leader after Democrats gained control of the House in 2006. His outspoken opposition to the Iraq War could still make him a Republican target if he does not retire, even though he defeated a credible opponent with 61% of the vote in 2006. Murtha will be 76 in 2008. John Kerry won 51% here.

Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district— Republican Charles Dent could face a tough race in 2008. He won 53% of the vote against a political newcomer with no political experience in a district that narrowly went to John Kerry with 50% in 2004. His district covers the Lehigh Valley region and is politically marginal. Allentown Democratic Party chairwoman Sam Bennett has declared her candidacy. Other possible Democratic opponents include Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham, state Senator Lisa Boscola, and state Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney. State Rep. Jennifer Mann is also rumored to be considering a run.

Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district— Republican Tim Murphy was reelected in 2006 with 58% of the vote against a little-known Democrat in this suburban Pittsburgh district that George W. Bush won here with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004, an indication that Murphy could be vulnerable against a stronger opponent. Democrats are trying to entice Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato to run, although he has yet to show any interest. One Democrat who will run is consultant Beth Hafer, whose mother Barbara Hafer is a longtime state official [56].

South Carolina

South Carolina's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Henry Brown (R) may retire. Brown's district is an affluent coastal one centered around Charleston and Myrtle Beach and is solidly Republican. He will be 73 in 2008.

South Carolina's 5th congressional district— Democrat John Spratt represents a district centered around the South Carolina suburbs of Charlotte, North Carolina, that went to George W. Bush with 57% in 2004. Although he defeated State Representative Ralph Norman, who was conidered a strong opponent, with 57.5% in 2006, he may still face a serious challenge in 2008.

South Dakota

South Dakota's at-large congressional district— In 2006, U.S. Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was reelected easily against token opposition. But in 2008, she may face a more formidible opponent. She got a break when state Public Utilities Commissioner Dustin Johnson decided not to run against her, as he has already won elective statewide office, giving him name identification. However, state Representative Joel Dykstra may run, although Dykstra may run for the U.S. Senate if Governor Mike Rounds chooses not to [57]. Another possible Republican candidate is Sioux Falls City Councilman Pat Costello.

Texas

Texas's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Sam Johnson (R) may retire. Johnson's district is heavily Republican and is comprised of Dallas' wealthy northern suburbs, including Plano, McKinney, Garland, and part of Richardson. Johnson will be 78 in 2008. If he retires, state Senator Florence Shapiro and state Rep. Brian McCall are possible candidates.

Texas's 4th congressional district— 13-term incumbent and former Democrat Ralph Hall (R), the oldest current member of the House of Representatives, may retire. Hall's district takes in northeast Texas, including cities such as Sherman and Texarkana as well as Dallas suburbs such as Rockwall and McKinney. Hall will be 85 in 2008. In something of a surprise, former Frisco Mayor Kathy Seei announced that she would run as a Republican. If Hall does retire, there is speculation that his son, Rockwall County District Judge Brett Hall, will run to succeed him. Bush won 70% here in 2004

Texas's 14th congressional district— Incumbent Republican Ron Paul may retire or run for president. Paul will be 73 in 2008. His district covers much of the central portion of the Texas Gulf Coast, including the communities of Galveston, Bay City, and Victoria. As a whole, it votes Republican, although Democrats sometimes win elections there. Already, Eric Dondero, a former Senior Aide to Paul, has announced he would run even if Paul sought reelection, as has Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden. Other Republicans thinking of running include Republican party activist Bobby Eberle.

Texas's 17th congressional district— Republicans will look to unseat Chet Edwards (D) in this heavily Republican district that covers Waco and the Bryan-College Station area. His district gave George W. Bush 70% of the vote in 2004 and includes Crawford, the home of Bush’s ranch. Edwards was the sole survivor among the Texas Democrats targeted by the mid-decade redistricting effective in 2004, reelected that year with just 51%, but easily defeated Iraq War veteran Van Taylor (who was highly touted as a top-flight candidate by the GOP) by 40% to 58% respectively, in 2006. He has been mentioned as a possible candidate against Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn in 2008.

Texas's 22nd congressional district— This seat was vacated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who resigned amid reports over his campaign finance activities. Democrat Nick Lampson won the general election, facing only a Libertarian and write-in opposition from Republicans. Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a dermatologist and former Houston City Councilwoman, won the special election held on the same day and in which Lampson did not run, and she served as a member of congress for almost two months before Lampson was sworn in. Lampson is expected to face a difficult race in 2008. He represents a heavily Republican constituency that voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a 2-1 (66%-33%) margin, and is dominated by the heavily Republican southern suburbs of Houston, including Sugar Land, portions of Pasadena and Pearland, and Houston's Clear Lake master-planned development. This district also includes the NASA Johnson Space Center and Ellington Field. Sekula-Gibbs is running against Lampson in the 2008 election; however she caused a stir with voters after leveling charges of unprofessional behavior against former DeLay aides and called for an ethics investigation. Those aides later claimed Sekula-Gibbs herself was unprofessional. In an added development, Lampson has had serious health problems, including recent quadruple heart bypass surgery, raising questions as to whether he will run again. Despite this, Lampson was one of the most talked-about potential challengers to U.S. Senator John Cornyn in 2008. In the end, Lampson chose to run for re-election.

Texas's 23rd congressional district— Former Democratic Representative Ciro Rodriguez won a 54% to 46% victory in a runoff against Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla on December 12, 2006. Rodriguez was aided by low turnout, especially in the conservative areas of the district. His seat is a natural target for Republicans in 2008. The district, which is a majority Hispanic one to the south and west of downtown San Antonio, stretching across West Texas into Del Rio and other towns along the Mexican border and Big Bend National Park, reaching all the way to just east of El Paso, is politically marginal. Wealthy attorney Francisco "Quico" Canseco has announced that he would run and has begun running television ads in the 23rd district.[58], and it's possible that Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson will run, as well.

Texas's 27th congressional district— Incumbent Solomon Ortiz, a moderate Democrat, may retire. He is the Dean of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Despite a Democratic wave that produced stronger-than-normal conditions for Democrats in 2006, Ortiz was unable to take advantage of this wave, winning 57% of the vote, a six-point decline from 2004. George W. Bush won this district in 2004 by ten points (55% to 45% for John Kerry). The district includes the Corpus Christi area and Brownsville as well as South Padre Island. If he retires, his son Solomon Ortiz, Jr., who was elected to the Texas House of Representatives in 2006, could run to succeed him. Ortiz will be 71 in 2008.

Texas's 30th congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Eddie Bernice Johnson may retire. Johnson's district is centered around inner city areas of Dallas and surrounding southern areas of Dallas County. Johnson will be 73 in 2008. If she retires, state Senator Royce West would be a possible candidate to succeed her. Both Gore and Kerry won here by wide margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

Texas's 32nd congressional district— Republican Pete Sessions is known to have ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, which his eventual Democratic opponent is likely to make an issue in his 2008 race. While Sessions improved his margin from his contentious, extremely costly 2004 campaign against a fellow incumbent, Democrat Martin Frost – who was displaced from his previous district in the controversial 2003 redistricting engineered by Tom DeLay – it was only by two percentage points (from 54% in 2004 to 56% in 2006). By contrast, in 2004, George W. Bush won 59% of the vote in this district to 41% for John Kerry, which includes several affluent areas of north Dallas, including Highland Park, and significant chunks of the suburbs of Irving and Richardson. If Frost were to run again, this race would be competitive, particularly if his ethics problems became more serious.

Utah

Utah's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Jim Matheson is a perennial target of the GOP every election cycle, as his district was won by George W. Bush with 66% of the vote in 2004. Matheson received 59% in 2006 and 55% in 2004. The district is based in eastern Utah and includes Moab and Salt Lake City. If Utah receives a fourth seat in the 110th Congress as part of a DC voting rights compromise, Matheson will likely be placed in a much more Democratic district centered around the relatively liberal Salt Lake City; legislation to this end was passed by the House of Representatives and is currently up for consideration in the Senate where it's prospects are uncertain. President Bush has said he will veto the bill if it passes. Matheson may also run for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Republican Orrin Hatch should Hatch be appointed Attorney General of the United States. Were this seat to become open, the GOP would have a real chance of winning it.

Utah's 3rd congressional district— Republican Chris Cannon won 55% of the vote in the Republican primary in 2006 against businessman John Jacob, who got 45% of the vote in the Republican primary, due to Cannon's stance on illegal immigration. He may very well face another serious primary challenge in 2008. Also, he may face a difficult reelection bid in 2008 if former Congressman Bill Orton, who held this seat for 3 terms prior to being very narrowly defeated by Cannon in 1996, decides to run again for his old seat. Cannon may also run for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Republican Orrin Hatch should Hatch be appointed Attorney General of the United States. Were this seat to become open, the GOP would be heavily favored to keep control of it. Bush won 77% here in 2004.

Virginia

Virginia's 1st congressional district— Republican incumbent Jo Ann Davis has been suffering from breast cancer and is receiving chemothrapy. The resulting illness has caused her to miss several votes [59]. Her staff insists that she intends on seeking reelection, but there is growing speculation that she will be forced to retire. The district she represents is solidly Republican (Bush won 60% here in 2004).

Virginia's 2nd congressional district— Republican Thelma Drake survived a bid from Democrat Phil Kellam by only 51% to 49% in 2006. In 2004, Drake received 55% of the vote in this Virginia Beach-based district, which was won by George W. Bush with 57% to 42% for John Kerry in 2004. Drake may have been hurt by the downfall of Republican U.S. Senator George Allen, who narrowly lost to Democrat Jim Webb, an ex-Republican and former Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan.

Virginia's 9th congressional district— George W. Bush won 58% of this district to 40% for John Kerry in 2004, which is held by Democrat Rick Boucher. If Boucher was to retire, this district will likely experience a competitive race. Boucher will be 62 in 2008.

Virginia's 10th congressional district— George W. Bush won 55% of this district to 45% for John Kerry in 2004, which is held by Republican Frank Wolf, who faced a challenge from Democrat Judy Feder in 2006. Feder will run again in 2008.Another possible Democratic candidate is ret. Air Force Colonel & Desert Storm veteran Michael Turner. Wolf will be facing a primary challenge from Vern McKinley, who is to the right of Wolf on economic issues. Democrats have been making gains in Northern Virginia recently, which could make re-election tough for Wolf in 2008. Wolf's district covers Loudoun and part of Fairfax counties.

Virginia's 11th congressional district— Republican Senator John Warner has decided to retire in 2008, and incumbent Tom Davis (R) has expressed interest in running for Senate. If Davis' seat is open, this increasingly-Democratic district of several Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC could become more competitive. George W. Bush barely won this district with 50% to 49% for John Kerry, which includes part of Fairfax and Prince William counties, in 2004. Iraq War Veteran Doug Denneny, is the only declared Democratic candidate for now. [60] [61]. Former congresswoman Leslie Byrne whom Davis unseated in 1994 has formed an exploratory committee. Also possible Democratic candidates are Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors (which Davis was part of before becoming a Congressman). Among Republican, business magnate and former CPA Keith Fimian [62] has expressed interest in running. Other Republicans mentioned are U.S. Maritime Administrator Sean Connaughton, state Senator Jay O'Brien, Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart, and state Delatate Tim Hugo.

Washington

Washington's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Brian Baird may face a tough race in this swing district that George W. Bush barely won with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004. However, there is no announced challenger and Baird won with 62% of the vote in 2006.

Washington's 8th congressional district— Dave Reichert (R) won a close 51% to 49% re-election bid against Democratic former Microsoft product manager Darcy Burner in 2006. Given the closeness of the race, Darcy Burner has declared her intention to run against Reichert in 2008. Al Gore and John Kerry narrowly won this suburban Seattle district with 52% in 2000 and 2004, respectively. A potentially stronger candidate was state Senator Rodney Tom, who had announced his candidacy but later dropped out of the race and endorsed Darcy Burner. [63]. Local Democrats are determined to win this district.

West Virginia

West Virginia's 1st congressional district— Controversy-plagued incumbent Alan Mollohan (D) represents a conservative-leaning district and received four fewer percentage points in 2006 than in 2004, which is considered unusual among Democrats in the 2006 congressional elections as Democrats chiefly made gains against Republican opponents or ran unopposed that year. This district covers the northern parts of West Virginia. Bush won 57% here in 2004.

West Virginia's 2nd congressional district— In 2006, Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito was reelected with 57%, a solid margin, but not a sign of political security. Democratic state Senator John Unger has officially entered the race. ^[57] The DCCC has called this race " a top target." Bush won 57% here in 2004.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Republican Paul Ryan may face a tough race in this swing district that George W. Bush won with 53% to 47% for John Kerry in 2004. Some Democrats think that Ryan has managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1999) because he had never faced a strong opponent. Financial planner Marge Krupp is currently the only announced challenger.

Wisconsin's 5th congressional district— There has been speculation for the past few election cycles that Congressman Jim Sensenbrenner was nearing retirement after being in office since 1978. As a senior Republican, Sensenbrenner has held key committee chairmanships. While he told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that "this body is not dead yet",^[58] local politicians have again been circulating rumors that Sensenbrenner will retire now that the Republicans are in the minority. Should Sensenbrenner decide not to run in 2008, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, former Lt. Gov. Margaret Farrow, State Sen. Ted Kanavas and State Sen. Glenn Grothman are potential Republican candidates. George W. Bush won 63% here.

Wisconsin's 7th congressional district— The third-longest serving Democrat in the House, incumbent Dave Obey might retire, even though such a move may be unlikely that he now has become chair of the House Appropriations Committee because Democrats took over the House in 2006. Obey will be 70 in 2008. Should Obey retire, a possible candidate is Ashland County District Attorney Sean Duffy, a former participant on MTV's "The Real World" who considered running in 2004. John Kerry won here with 50% (with a victory margin of 5,113 votes) in 2004.

Wisconsin's 8th congressional district— Democrat Steve Kagen won by a 51% to 49% margin his first term in this Republican-leaning district that narrowly went to George W. Bush with 55% to 45% for John Kerry in 2004. Kagen will likely face a serious threat from Republicans, who had held this seat since 1999. He recently garnered bad press when he bragged about speaking rudely to the President and First Lady at a White House function and then retracted this claim. He was the subject of controversy when the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) investigated his clinic for selling allergy vaccines without a valid license, although his clinic stopped the practice. Kagen's predecessor, Mark Green, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006, has been nominated by Bush to be Ambassador to Tanzania, ruling out his running. Possible Republican candidates include former state Assembly Speaker John Gard, his 2006 opponent; state Assemblyman Steve Wieckert; State Representative Frank Lasee of Bellevue; former Green Bay Mayor Paul Jadin, one of two former Wisconsin state Treasurers, Jack Voight of Appleton or Cathy Zeuske of Peshtigo (who is Gard's wife); and Terri McCormick, a former Assemblywoman who was defeated by Gard in the 2006 Republican primary.

Wyoming

Wyoming's at-large congressional district— Six-term Republican Barbara Cubin edged her Democratic opponent, Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner, by a margin of 1,012 votes in 2006. She sought reelection in a district – coterminous with the state of Wyoming – that gave George W. Bush an overwhelming margin of 69% in 2004 but whose governor, Democrat Dave Freudenthal, was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006. Cubin has been known as a lightning rod for controversy over a number of incidents that ranged from receiving money from ARMPAC, to distributing penis-shaped cookies to male colleagues while in the Wyoming legislature, to even an incident after a televised debate in which she remarked that if the Libertarian candidate, Thomas Rankin, who has multiple sclerosis and must use a wheelchair, "weren’t sitting in that chair," she would have slapped him in the face. Cubin could face a strong primary challenge in 2008 as a result of her relative electoral weakness. In the general election, she could also face a strong challenge. Gary Trauner has said that he may run again in 2008. It is also possible that Cubin won't seek reelection. WY State House Majority Leader and son of former U.S. Senator Alan Simpson, Colin Simpson has announced he will run against Cubin who he said will run in 2008. Cheyenne Substitute Teacher, Swede Nelson was the first to announce his candidacy for the seat on Sept. 8th, 2007. Retired Naval Captain and '06 candidate Bill Winney, who garnered 40% of the vote against Cubin in the primary, is also expected to run in 2008.

References

^ Elliott, Scott (November 8, 2006). "The future of the Congress". ElectionProjection.com. Retrieved 2007-02-15.
^ Contract - Democratic or GOP control of the House of Representatives, 2008, InTrade.com, accessed July 17, 2007
^ Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". http://www.humanevents.com/. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)
^ Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". http://www.humanevents.com/. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)
^ Babington, Charles (2007-05-30). "House GOP fear fallout from ethics cases". Yahoo News. Associated Press. Retrieved 2007-05-30.
^ Arizona's Rep. Rick Renzi to retire Associated Press August 23, 2007. Retrieved August 24, 2007
^ Mike Sunnucks, "Replacements waiting in wings as Renzi ponders resignation", Phoenix Business Journal, April 23, 2007
^ David Whitney, "Doolittle slipping as big-money draw: His campaign is in debt and raising less as rival Brown in gaining steam", Sacramento Bee, July 16, 2007
^ http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/04/18/state/n143804D07.DTL "FBI searched home of congressman linked to Jack Abramoff case"], Associated Press, April 18, 2007
^ Cindy Sheehan considering run against Pelosi, from CNN's Political Ticker blog, 2007-07-08
^ Heisel, William (December 12, 2006). "Ex-aides allege abuse of power". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 2007-02-15.
^ Williams, Ron (2007-02-18). "Democrats are targeting Castle's seat". The News Journal. Retrieved 2007-02-19.
^ Garcia, Jason (Jun 19, 2007). "Keller Draws More Competition". Orlando Sentinel Central Florida Political Pulse Blog. Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved Jun 19, 2007.
^ Jeremy Wallace, "Jennings to run for Congress again", Herald-Tribune, July 20, 2007
^ Idaho Press-Tribune staff (2007-07-05). "Nampa veteran runs for Congress". Idaho Press-Tribune. Retrieved 2007-07-23.
^ Gamache, Shawna (2007-04-05). "LaRocco to run for Senate; Craig mum on future". The Idaho Statesman. Retrieved 2007-04-11. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
^ Another Scheurer to run against Bean Lake County News-Sun June 20, 2007. September 19, 2007
^ GOP targets Bean, Democrats learn her recipe for success Chicago Tribune August 21, 2007. Retrieved September 19, 2007
^ Moderate Party member running for Congress
^ "Green Party member will challenge Kirk". Lake County News-Sun. Copley Newspapers. 2007-05-17. Retrieved 2007-05-29. {{cite news}}: Text "NEWS-SUN STAFF REPORT" ignored (help)
^ Weller won't seek eighth term NWI Times September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 21, 2007
^ Frank Smyth, "Illinois Republican Jerry Weller is one of the most powerful men in Congress when it comes to Latin America. His wife is the most powerful woman in Guatemala’s controversial FRG party.", Chicago Reader, August 25, 2006
^ Former US House Speaker Dennis Hastert leaving Congress after this term Associated Press. August 14, 2007. Retrieved August 15, 2007
^ Conservative Enters Race For Hastert's Seat CBS News, September 15, 2007 Retrieved September 17, 2007
^ Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-21). "John Laesch Running In Congressional 14th-Announcing At Fire Dog Lake Saturday". Wurfwhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-05-22.
^ Krol, Eric (2007-05-31). "Physicist in running to replace Hastert". Daily Herald. Sun-Times. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
^ Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-09). "Democrat Joe Serra Planning to Run in 14th Congressional". WurfWhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
^ Sweeny, Chuck (2007-06-03). "Manzullo rival fears the demise of manufacturing". Rockford Register Star. GateHouse Media Inc. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
^ LaHood retiring after 7 terms in Congress Associated Press July 26, 2007.
^ Schock plans to seek congressional seat Peoria Journal Star. August 5, 2005.
^ Poll: Schock Takes GOP Lead In 18th Congressional Race WEEK 25. August 22, 2007. Retrieved August 26, 2007
^ Associated Press (2007-02-20). "Ex-Coroner To Challenge Burton In GOP Primary". The Indy Channel.com (WRTV). Retrieved 2007-02-22.
^ ^a ^b "CQPolitics Campaign Money Watch", July 13, 2007
^ Club for Growth Endorses Andy Harris Andy Harris For Congress Press Release. August 13, 2007. Retrieved August 17, 2007
^ Ehrlich backs challenger in Party Primary By Tom LoBianco. June 26, 2007 Retrieved August, 8, 2007
^ Cooney, Jessica Benton (2007-03-14). "Rep. Meehan's Departure Now Certain, as College Approves New Post". Yahoo! News. CQPolitics.com. Retrieved 2007-04-11.
^ "Knollenberg shifts role after nearly losing seat". Detroit Free Press. December 25, 2006.
^ Rehman, Marc (January 30, 2007). "Michigan GOP Rep. Knollenberg Draws Democrats' Scrutiny for 2008". The New York Times. Retrieved 2007-03-25.
^ Price, Deb (January 31, 2007). "Dems slap bulls-eye on 2 GOP U.S. Reps". The Detroit News. Retrieved 2007-03-25.
^ "POLITICALLY SPEAKING: IT's official: Peters will take on Knollenberg". The Detroit Free Press. August 8, 2007. Retrieved 2007-08-07.
^ ^a ^b Frommer, Fred (2007-09-17). "Ramstad announces his retirement from Congress". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved 2007-09-17.
^ Wrobleski, Tom (2007-04-04). "Councilman weighs run against Fossella". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved 2007-04-11.
^ Pierce, Frederic (2007-04-06). "Maffei again plans run for Walsh's seat". The Post-Standard. Retrieved 2007-04-12.
^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=572
^ http://www.newsargus.com/news/archives/2007/05/11/challenge_coming_for_jones_in_2008/index.shtml
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/profiles/marshall_adame
^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=577
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/glazier_no_congressional_run
^ http://www.hickoryrecord.com/servlet/Satellite?c=MGArticle&cid=1173352734772&pagename=HDR/MGArticle/HDR_BasicArticle
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/mchenry_opponent_seeks_signatures
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/former_mchenry_worker_takes_deal
^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=580
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/gop_taylor_should_decide
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/apodaca_no_run_against_shuler
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/mumpower_announces_campaign
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/campbell_to_run_against_mumpower
^ State Sen. Unger running for U.S. Congress The Register Herald May 21, 2007. Retrieved June 2, 2007
^ Schultze, Steve (April 7, 2006). "Walker responds to congressional buzz" (Reprint). Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. FindArticles. Retrieved 2007-02-15.

[1] Elliott, Scott (November 8, 2006). "The future of the Congress". ElectionProjection.com. Retrieved 2007-02-15.

[2] Contract - Democratic or GOP control of the House of Representatives, 2008, InTrade.com, accessed July 17, 2007

[3] Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". http://www.humanevents.com/. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)

[4] Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". http://www.humanevents.com/. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)

[5] Babington, Charles (2007-05-30). "House GOP fear fallout from ethics cases". Yahoo News. Associated Press. Retrieved 2007-05-30.

[6] Arizona's Rep. Rick Renzi to retire Associated Press August 23, 2007. Retrieved August 24, 2007

[7] Mike Sunnucks, "Replacements waiting in wings as Renzi ponders resignation", Phoenix Business Journal, April 23, 2007

[8] David Whitney, "Doolittle slipping as big-money draw: His campaign is in debt and raising less as rival Brown in gaining steam", Sacramento Bee, July 16, 2007

[9] ttp://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/04/18/state/n143804D07.DTL "FBI searched home of congressman linked to Jack Abramoff case"], Associated Press, April 18, 2007

[10] Cindy Sheehan considering run against Pelosi, from CNN's Political Ticker blog, 2007-07-08

[11] Heisel, William (December 12, 2006). "Ex-aides allege abuse of power". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 2007-02-15.

[12] Williams, Ron (2007-02-18). "Democrats are targeting Castle's seat". The News Journal. Retrieved 2007-02-19.

[13] Garcia, Jason (Jun 19, 2007). "Keller Draws More Competition". Orlando Sentinel Central Florida Political Pulse Blog. Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved Jun 19, 2007.

[14] Jeremy Wallace, "Jennings to run for Congress again", Herald-Tribune, July 20, 2007

[15] Idaho Press-Tribune staff (2007-07-05). "Nampa veteran runs for Congress". Idaho Press-Tribune. Retrieved 2007-07-23.

[16] Gamache, Shawna (2007-04-05). "LaRocco to run for Senate; Craig mum on future". The Idaho Statesman. Retrieved 2007-04-11. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)

[17] Another Scheurer to run against Bean Lake County News-Sun June 20, 2007. September 19, 2007

[18] GOP targets Bean, Democrats learn her recipe for success Chicago Tribune August 21, 2007. Retrieved September 19, 2007

[19] Moderate Party member running for Congress

[20] "Green Party member will challenge Kirk". Lake County News-Sun. Copley Newspapers. 2007-05-17. Retrieved 2007-05-29. {{cite news}}: Text "NEWS-SUN STAFF REPORT" ignored (help)

[21] Weller won't seek eighth term NWI Times September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 21, 2007

[CR-8-25-06-22] Frank Smyth, "Illinois Republican Jerry Weller is one of the most powerful men in Congress when it comes to Latin America. His wife is the most powerful woman in Guatemala’s controversial FRG party.", Chicago Reader, August 25, 2006

[23] Former US House Speaker Dennis Hastert leaving Congress after this term Associated Press. August 14, 2007. Retrieved August 15, 2007

[24] Conservative Enters Race For Hastert's Seat CBS News, September 15, 2007 Retrieved September 17, 2007

[25] Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-21). "John Laesch Running In Congressional 14th-Announcing At Fire Dog Lake Saturday". Wurfwhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-05-22.

[26] Krol, Eric (2007-05-31). "Physicist in running to replace Hastert". Daily Herald. Sun-Times. Retrieved 2007-06-03.

[27] Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-09). "Democrat Joe Serra Planning to Run in 14th Congressional". WurfWhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-06-03.

[28] Sweeny, Chuck (2007-06-03). "Manzullo rival fears the demise of manufacturing". Rockford Register Star. GateHouse Media Inc. Retrieved 2007-06-03.

[29] LaHood retiring after 7 terms in Congress Associated Press July 26, 2007.

[30] Schock plans to seek congressional seat Peoria Journal Star. August 5, 2005.

[31] Poll: Schock Takes GOP Lead In 18th Congressional Race WEEK 25. August 22, 2007. Retrieved August 26, 2007

[32] Associated Press (2007-02-20). "Ex-Coroner To Challenge Burton In GOP Primary". The Indy Channel.com (WRTV). Retrieved 2007-02-22.

[CQP-7-13-07-33] "CQPolitics Campaign Money Watch", July 13, 2007

[34] Club for Growth Endorses Andy Harris Andy Harris For Congress Press Release. August 13, 2007. Retrieved August 17, 2007

[35] Ehrlich backs challenger in Party Primary By Tom LoBianco. June 26, 2007 Retrieved August, 8, 2007

[36] Cooney, Jessica Benton (2007-03-14). "Rep. Meehan's Departure Now Certain, as College Approves New Post". Yahoo! News. CQPolitics.com. Retrieved 2007-04-11.

[37] "Knollenberg shifts role after nearly losing seat". Detroit Free Press. December 25, 2006.

[38] Rehman, Marc (January 30, 2007). "Michigan GOP Rep. Knollenberg Draws Democrats' Scrutiny for 2008". The New York Times. Retrieved 2007-03-25.

[39] Price, Deb (January 31, 2007). "Dems slap bulls-eye on 2 GOP U.S. Reps". The Detroit News. Retrieved 2007-03-25.

[40] "POLITICALLY SPEAKING: IT's official: Peters will take on Knollenberg". The Detroit Free Press. August 8, 2007. Retrieved 2007-08-07.

[Ramstad-41] Frommer, Fred (2007-09-17). "Ramstad announces his retirement from Congress". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved 2007-09-17.

[42] Wrobleski, Tom (2007-04-04). "Councilman weighs run against Fossella". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved 2007-04-11.

[43] Pierce, Frederic (2007-04-06). "Maffei again plans run for Walsh's seat". The Post-Standard. Retrieved 2007-04-12.

[44] ttp://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=572

[45] ttp://www.newsargus.com/news/archives/2007/05/11/challenge_coming_for_jones_in_2008/index.shtml

[46] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/profiles/marshall_adame

[47] ttp://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=577

[48] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/glazier_no_congressional_run

[49] ttp://www.hickoryrecord.com/servlet/Satellite?c=MGArticle&cid=1173352734772&pagename=HDR/MGArticle/HDR_BasicArticle

[50] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/mchenry_opponent_seeks_signatures

[51] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/former_mchenry_worker_takes_deal

[52] ttp://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=580

[53] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/gop_taylor_should_decide

[54] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/apodaca_no_run_against_shuler

[55] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/mumpower_announces_campaign

[56] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/campbell_to_run_against_mumpower

[57] State Sen. Unger running for U.S. Congress The Register Herald May 21, 2007. Retrieved June 2, 2007

[58] Schultze, Steve (April 7, 2006). "Walker responds to congressional buzz" (Reprint). Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. FindArticles. Retrieved 2007-02-15.

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11]

[12]

[13]

[14]

[15]

[16]

[17]

[18]

[19]

[20]

[21]

[22]

[23]

[24]

[25]

[26]

[27]

[28]

[29]

[30]

[31]

[32]

[33]

[34]

[35]

[36]

[37]

[38]

[39]

[40]

[41]

[42]

[43]

[44]

[45]

[46]

[47]

[48]

[49]

[50]

[51]

[52]

[53]

[54]

[55]

[56]

[57]

[58]

@@ Line 201: / Line 201: @@
 * '''{{ushr|Illinois|10|}}'''— [[Mark Kirk]] (R) survived a surprisingly close race in 2006, winning by 53% to 47% in an upscale suburban Chicago district that voted for John Kerry with 54% in 2004. In December 2006, Kirk disclaimed any interest in the 2008 U.S. Senate race against the Democratic incumbent, [[Dick Durbin]]. Kirk's 2006 opponent [[Illinois's 10th congressional district election, 2006|Dan Seals]] will run again, and another potential challenger is attorney and former Clinton presidential adviser [[Jay Footlik]]. David Kalbfleisch The founder of the Arlington Heights chapter of the Green Party has announced that he will run for the seat.<ref>{{cite news |NEWS-SUN STAFF REPORT |title=Green Party member will challenge Kirk |url=http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/newssun/news/389829,5_1_WA17_KIRKCHALLENGE_S1.article |work=[[Lake County News-Sun]] |publisher=[[Copley Newspapers]] |date=2007-05-17 |accessdate=2007-05-29 }}</ref> Kalbfleisch is a Navy veteran and member of [[Iraq Veterans Against the War]]. [http://www.electdave.org/resume.html]
-* '''{{ushr|Illinois|11|}}'''— [[Jerry Weller]] will be retiring at the end of his seventh term. <ref>[http://www.nwitimes.com/articles/2007/09/21//updates/breaking_news/doc46f3f35e49803946131202.txt Weller won't seek eighth term] ''NWI Times'' September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 21, 2007</ref> Weller (R) won 55% of the vote in a district that narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004 with 53% to 47% for John Kerry. Weller has received controversial donations from a number of sources, including [[ARMPAC]]. The controversy over his marriage to [[Guatemala]]n [[Congress of Guatemala|Congresswoman]] [[Zury Ríos Montt]], daughter of former [[Strongman (politics)|strongman]] [[Efraín Ríos Montt]].<ref name="CR-8-25-06">Frank Smyth, [http://www.chicagoreader.com/features/stories/jerryweller/ "Illinois Republican Jerry Weller is one of the most powerful men in Congress when it comes to Latin America. His wife is the most powerful woman in Guatemala’s controversial FRG party."], ''Chicago Reader'', August 25, 2006</ref>, has also affected him. Green Party member Jason Wallace, a veteran of the Iraq War and  chair of the IBHE-SAC[http://www.ibhe.org/], has announced he will run for the seat [http://www.electwallace.us/]. President of [[Kankakee Community College]] Jerry Weber is running as a Democrat. State Senate Majority Leader [[Debbie Halvorson]] is also running as a Democrat.  Among Republicans, [[Joliet, Illinois|Joliet]] Mayor  Art Schultz, state Representative [[Renee Kosel]] and [[New Lenox, Illinois|New Lenox]] Mayor Tim Baldermann are possible candidates [http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/09/weller_to_retire.html?hpid=topnew] [http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/heraldnews/news/576255,4_1_JO27_CANDIDATES_S1.article].
+* '''{{ushr|Illinois|11|}}'''— [[Jerry Weller]] will be retiring at the end of his seventh term. <ref>[http://www.nwitimes.com/articles/2007/09/21//updates/breaking_news/doc46f3f35e49803946131202.txt Weller won't seek eighth term] ''NWI Times'' September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 21, 2007</ref> Weller (R) won 55% of the vote in a district that narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004 with 53% to 47% for John Kerry. Weller has received controversial donations from a number of sources, including [[ARMPAC]]. The controversy over his marriage to [[Guatemala]]n [[Congress of Guatemala|Congresswoman]] [[Zury Ríos Montt]], daughter of former [[Strongman (politics)|strongman]] [[Efraín Ríos Montt]].<ref name="CR-8-25-06">Frank Smyth, [http://www.chicagoreader.com/features/stories/jerryweller/ "Illinois Republican Jerry Weller is one of the most powerful men in Congress when it comes to Latin America. His wife is the most powerful woman in Guatemala’s controversial FRG party."], ''Chicago Reader'', August 25, 2006</ref>, has also affected him. Green Party member Jason Wallace, a veteran of the Iraq War and  chair of the IBHE-SAC[http://www.ibhe.org/], has announced he will run for the seat [http://www.electwallace.us/]. President of [[Kankakee Community College]] Jerry Weber is running as a Democrat. State Senate Majority Leader [[Debbie Halvorson]] is also running as a Democrat.  Among Republicans, [[Joliet, Illinois|Joliet]] Mayor  Art Schultz, state Representative [[Renee Kosel]], [[New Lenox, Illinois|New Lenox]] Mayor Tim Baldermann, and state Appellate Judge William Holdridge are possible candidates [http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/09/weller_to_retire.html?hpid=topnew] [http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/heraldnews/news/576255,4_1_JO27_CANDIDATES_S1.article] [http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/10/gop_state_lawmaker_opts_out_of.html].
 * '''{{ushr|Illinois|13|}}'''— [[Judy Biggert]] (R) may retire. Biggert is known to have moderate positions. Her district includes southern Dupage, northern Will, and a part of Cook counties; an area which has changed much demographically in recent years. DuPage County [[Green Party (United States)|Green Party]]  Co-Chairperson [[Steve Alesch]] is also a declared candidate [http://www.votesteve.org/] [http://www.dupagegreens.org/]. Biggert will be 71 in 2008. Bush won 55% here to 45% for John Kerry.

v t e (2007 ←) 2008 United States elections (→ 2009)
U.S. President	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Guam (straw poll)
U.S. Senate	Alabama Alaska Arkansas Colorado Delaware District of Columbia (shadow) Georgia Idaho Illinois Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Mississippi (special) Montana Nebraska New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico North Carolina Oklahoma Oregon Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Virginia West Virginia Wyoming Wyoming (special)
U.S. House (election ratings)	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California 12th sp Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia delegate shadow Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois 14th sp Indiana 7th sp Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana 1st sp 6th sp Maine Maryland 4th sp Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi 1st sp Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio 11th sp Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas U.S. Virgin Islands Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Governors	American Samoa Delaware Lt. Gov Indiana Missouri Lt. Gov Montana New Hampshire North Carolina Lt. Gov North Dakota Puerto Rico Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia
Attorneys General	North Carolina Pennsylvania Washington Ohio (special)
Other statewide elections	Pennsylvania Auditor General Treasurer Washington Secretary of State Wisconsin Supreme Court
State legislatures	Arizona Senate California Assembly Senate Connecticut Senate Delaware House Senate Iowa House Senate Massachusetts House Senate Michigan House Minnesota House Montana House New Mexico House Senate New York Assembly North Carolina House Senate Pennsylvania House Senate Senate Texas House Senate Washington (state) House Senate West Virginia Senate Wisconsin Assembly Senate
Mayors	Augusta, GA Bakersfield, CA Baton Rouge, LA Fresno, CA Honolulu, HI Irvine, CA Mesa, AZ Milwaukee, WI Orlando, FL Portland, OR Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA San Juan, PR Santa Ana, CA Stockton, CA Virginia Beach, VA
States	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas U.S. Virgin Islands Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming