2020 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions
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Revision as of 01:02, 1 May 2017
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The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census. The 2020 election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; the subsequent two elections will use information from the as yet-to-be-collected 2020 United States Census. | |||
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The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or re-elect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.
President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, will be eligible to seek re-election. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]
Demographic trends
The age group of what will then be persons in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.[2]
Simultaneous elections
The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[3] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[4]
Advantage of incumbency
An incumbent President seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.
General election polling
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Trump vs. Biden
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Republican Party
Donald Trump is eligible to run for re-election and has implied that he intends to do so.[10] His reelection campaign is ongoing. On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[11]
Presumptive incumbents
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump |
June 14, 1946 (age 78) New York City, New York |
President of the United States since 2017 Candidate for President in 2000 |
New York |
Mike Pence |
June 7, 1959 (age 65) Columbus, Indiana |
Vice President of the United States since 2017 Governor of Indiana 2013–2017 U.S. Representative 2001–2013 |
Indiana |
Below are other Republican candidates that may or will run in 2020:
Declared candidates
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jack Fellure |
October 3, 1931 (age 93) Midkiff, West Virginia |
Prohibition nominee for President in 2012 Candidate for President 1988–2008 and 2016 |
West Virginia |
November 9, 2016 | [12] |
Candidates who have publicly expressed interest
Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
- Dwayne Johnson, actor, producer, singer, and professional wrestler from Florida[13]
- Austin Petersen, candidate for President in 2016[14]
Speculative candidates
- John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative 1983–2001; candidate for President in 2000 and 2016[15][16][17]
Declined to be candidates
- Nikki Haley, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations since 2017; Governor of South Carolina 2011–2017[18][19]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011; candidate for President in 2016[20][21][22]
Potential convention sites
Democratic Party
Declared candidates
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rocky De La Fuente |
October 10, 1954 (age 70) San Diego, California |
American Delta and Reform nominee for President in 2016 |
Florida |
January 9, 2017 | [25] |
Geoffrey Fieger |
December 23, 1950 (age 73) Detroit, Michigan |
Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan in 1998 |
Michigan |
January 13, 2017 | [26] |
Candidates who have publicly expressed interest
Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
- Lincoln Chafee, Governor of Rhode Island 2011–2015; U.S. Senator 1999–2007; Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2006; candidate for President in 2016[27][28][29]
- Terry McAuliffe, Governor of Virginia since 2014[30][31][32]
- Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland 2007–2015; Mayor of Baltimore 1999–2007; candidate for President in 2016[33][34]
Speculative candidates
- Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana since 2013[35][36]
- Julian Castro, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 2014–2017; Mayor of San Antonio 2009–2014[37][38]
- John Bel Edwards, Governor of Louisiana since 2016[39][40]
- Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri 2013–2017; Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[41][42][43]
- Caroline Kennedy, U.S. Ambassador to Japan 2013–2017[44][45][46]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; candidate for President in 2016[47][48][49]
- Tom Steyer, hedge fund manager, philanthropist, and environmentalist from California[50][51]
Declined to be candidates
- Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States 2009–2017; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; candidate for President in 1988 and in 2008[52][53][54]
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey since 2013; Mayor of Newark 2006–2013; candidate for Mayor in 2002[55][56][57]
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio since 2007; U.S. Representative 1993–2007[58][59]
- Chelsea Clinton, First Daughter of the United States 1993–2001[60][61]
- Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State 2009–2013; U.S. Senator from New York 2001–2009; candidate for President in 2008 and Democratic nominee in 2016[62][63][64]
- George Clooney, actor, filmmaker, activist, and philanthropist from California[65][66]
- Mark Cuban, businessman, investor, author, television personality, and philanthropist from Texas[67][68][69]
- Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York since 2011; U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 1997–2001[70][71][72]
- Al Franken, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2009[73][74][75]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York since 2009; U.S. Representative 2007–2009[76][77][78]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California since 2017[79][80][81]
- John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado since 2011; Mayor of Denver 2003–2011[82][83][84]
- Bob Iger, businessman from California[85][86][87]
- Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington since 2013; U.S. Representative 1993–1995 and 1999–2012[88][89]
- Tim Kaine, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2013; Governor 2006–2010; Mayor of Richmond 1998–2001; Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2016[30][90]
- Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator from Connecticut since 2013; U.S. Representative 2007–2013[91][92]
- Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States 2009–2017[93][94]
- Sheryl Sandberg, technology executive, activist, and author from California[95][96]
- Howard Schultz, businessman from Washington[97][98][99]
- Mark Warner, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2009; Governor 2002–2006; Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996[32][100]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts since 2013[101][102][103]
- Oprah Winfrey, media proprietor, talk show host, actress, producer, and philanthropist from California[104][105][106]
Potential convention sites
- Birmingham, Alabama[107]
- Columbus, Ohio[108]
- Indianapolis, Indiana[108]
- New York City, New York[109]
- St. Louis, Missouri[110]
National polling
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of Error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Hillary Clinton | Andrew Cuomo | Al Franken | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harvard-Harris[111] | 2,092 | March 14–16, 2017 | N/A | – | 3% | – | 4% | – | 18% | 10% | Mark Cuban 4% Michelle Obama 14% Oprah Winfrey 4% 44% |
– | 3% | 8% | 3% | – | 14% | 9% | Mark Cuban 4% Michelle Obama 11% Oprah Winfrey 3% Others 45% | ||||
Rasmussen[112] | 1,000 | February 8–9, 2017 | ± 3% | 15% | 8% | 17% | – | 6% | 20% | 16% | Others 0% Undecided 20% |
Public Policy Polling[113] | 400 | December 6–7, 2016 | ± 4.9% | 31% | 4% | – | 2% | 3% | 24% | 16% | Sherrod Brown 2% Julian Castro 0% Kirsten Gillibrand 3% Undecided 14% |
Politico/Morning Consult[114] | 1,989 | October 5–6, 2016 | ± 2% | – | 5% | – | 6% | – | – | 16% | Tim Kaine 10% Others 8% Undecided 54% |
Statewide polling
Iowa
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of Error | Cory Booker | Julian Castro | Andrew Cuomo | Kirsten Gillibrand | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Martin O'Malley | Sheryl Sandberg | Howard Schultz | Others | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[115]
(for a Martin O'Malley-aligned PAC) |
1,062 | March 3–6, 2017 | N/A | 17% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 18% | 4% | 1% | – | 32% |
Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates
Libertarian Party
Declared candidates
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adam Kokesh |
February 1, 1982 (age 42) San Francisco, California |
Political activist | Arizona |
July 22, 2013 | [116] |
Candidates who have publicly expressed interest
Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
Declined to be candidates
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011; candidate for President in 2016[20][21][22]
- Austin Petersen, candidate for President in 2016[117]
Green Party
Candidates who have publicly expressed interest
Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
- Jill Stein, Green nominee for President in 2012 and 2016; Green-Rainbow nominee for Governor of Massachusetts in 2002 and 2010[118][119]
Independent or unaffiliated
Declared candidates
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeremy Gable |
May 10, 1982 (age 42) Lakenheath, England |
Playwright | Pennsylvania |
[120] | ||
Dan Rattiner |
1939 (age Error: Need valid year, month, day) New York City, New York |
Journalist Newspaper publisher |
New York |
[121] | ||
Kanye West |
June 8, 1977 (age 47) Atlanta, Georgia |
Rapper Songwriter Record producer Fashion designer Entrepreneur |
California |
August 30, 2015 | [122] |
Declined to be candidates
- Mark Cuban, businessman, investor, author, television personality, and philanthropist from Texas[67][68][69]
- Mark Zuckerberg, computer programmer and Internet entrepreneur from California[123][124][125]
See also
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2018
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2020
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- United States Senate elections, 2020
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