2010 United States House of Representatives elections: Difference between revisions

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==Retiring incumbents==
==Retiring incumbents==
At this point in time, 18 U.S. Representatives are voluntarily retiring from the House at the end of their current term.
At this point in time, 19 U.S. Representatives are voluntarily retiring from the House at the end of their current term.


===Democratic incumbents===
===Democratic incumbents===
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|publisher=Union Leader|date=2009-02-03|accessdate=2009-02-03|author=John Distaso}}</ref>
|publisher=Union Leader|date=2009-02-03|accessdate=2009-02-03|author=John Distaso}}</ref>
*{{ushr|Pennsylvania|7|}}: [[Joe Sestak]]: To [[United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2010|run]] for the U.S. Senate.<ref name=sestak>{{cite web|url=http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/sestak-to-challenge-specter-2009-07-01.html|title=Rep. Sestak to take on Sen. Specter|publisher=The Hill}}</ref>
*{{ushr|Pennsylvania|7|}}: [[Joe Sestak]]: To [[United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2010|run]] for the U.S. Senate.<ref name=sestak>{{cite web|url=http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/sestak-to-challenge-specter-2009-07-01.html|title=Rep. Sestak to take on Sen. Specter|publisher=The Hill}}</ref>
*{{ushr|Kansas|3|}}: [[Dennis Moore]]: To retire.<ref name=sestak>{{cite web|url=http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/1587369.html|title=Dennis Moore won't seek reelection|publisher=Kansas City Star}}</ref>


===Republican incumbents===
===Republican incumbents===

Revision as of 15:20, 23 November 2009

United States House of Representatives elections, 2010

← 2008 November 2, 2010

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 5 (of the 6) non-voting members
 
Leader Nancy Pelosi John Boehner
Party Democratic Republican
Leader's seat California-8th Ohio-8th
Last election 257 seats, 59.1% 178 seats, 40.9%
Current seats 258 seats, 59.3% 177 seats, 40.7%

The current congressional districts for the 111th Congress

Incumbent Speaker

Nancy Pelosi
Democratic



For complete list of the races in all districts, but without commentary, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2010 - complete list.

The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 2, 2010, halfway through President Barack Obama's first term in office. Elections will be held for all 435 seats, representing the 50 U.S. states. Elections also will be held for the delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five U.S. territories. The only seat in the United States House of Representatives not up for election is that of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term and will next face election in 2012.

The number of House seats may change pending the passage of the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act of 2009 (H.R. 157 and S. 160) in the House. On February 26, 2009, the United States Senate passed S. 160 by a vote of 61-37, although an attached amendment removing most of the District's gun laws has kept the bill from proceeding further.[1]

The winners of this election cycle will serve in the 112th Congress.

Background

Following the 2006 elections, Democrats took control of the House as well as the Senate. In the 2008 elections, which coincided with Democrat Barack Obama's victory over Republican John McCain for the presidency, Democrats increased their majorities in both chambers. Of the 435 Congressional districts, 242 were carried by Obama, while 193 voted for McCain. Of the districts Obama won, 34 elected a Republican to the House, while 49 of the districts McCain won elected a Democrat.[2]

Republicans are hoping to win back many of the swing districts they lost in the two previous elections.[3] Both parties have been preparing to defend seats that they risk losing. Democrats, who occupy more of the swing districts, are operating more on the defense than are Republicans. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has highlighted 40 Democratic incumbents at risk, part of their "Frontline Program."[4] The National Republican Congressional Committee has in turn highlighted 10 Republican incumbents at risk, part of their "Patriot Program."[5] They later added 15 additional names to the list, bringing the total to 25.[6]

Recently, both parties have been tied or had small leads in polls of voters on generic congressional ballots.[7]

This will be the last congressional election using congressional districts that were drawn based on the 2000 census.

Retiring incumbents

At this point in time, 19 U.S. Representatives are voluntarily retiring from the House at the end of their current term.

Democratic incumbents

Republican incumbents

Predictions

Most non-partisan pundits predict that the Republicans will gain seats in the 2010 elections, but expressed doubt that the Republicans could retake control of the House in 2010. In April 2009, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog, the Rothenberg Political Report, that "... the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not 'close to zero.' Not 'slight' or 'small.' Zero." In the same column, Rothenberg wrote "It’s not yet clear which party will gain seats in next year’s midterms or how large the swing will be. The GOP could well gain back some ground, given how far its House numbers have fallen."[26] However, by late September 2009, Rothenberg change his predictions, writing that the "national political landscape has changed noticeably over the past few months, with Republicans the beneficiaries" and that "Democratic control of the House is not now at risk."[27] In a May 2009 column for his Crystal Ball newsletter, Larry Sabato wrote "History instead suggests that the overall odds favor Republican gains in the House in 2010, but relatively modest gains. After all, Democrats now hold 257 House seats, 39 seats more than the minimum needed to control the House. Only Truman in 1946 and Clinton in 1994 yielded more than 39 seats to the opposition party in their first midterm election."[28] In an August 2009 column, Charlie Cook wrote that things had "slipped completely out of control" for the Democrats in 2010. He wrote that it was increasingly likely that the GOP could make big gains in 2010, but avoided any mention of the possibility that Republicans could regain control of the chamber.[29] In an August prediction, Nate Silver wrote that the Democrats would suffer a loss of between 20 to 50 seats in the 2010 House elections.[30] In another August prediction, Silver wrote "While the Democrats are not extraordinary likely to lose the House, such an outcome is certainly well within the realm of possibility (I'd put the chance at somewhere between 1-in-4 and 1-in-3)." [31] In September 2009, an article titled "Generic House Polling Suggests the Republicans Could Regain the House in 2010" was published on Silver's blog, FiveThirtyEight.com.[32]

Race ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included are currently considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)

District Incumbent Cook[33] Rothenberg[34] CQ Politics[35] Crystal Ball[36]
AL-2 Bright (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
AL-3 Rogers (R) Solid R Limited Risk Likely R Likely R
AL-5 Griffith (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
AK-AL Young (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Likely R
AZ-1 Kirkpatrick (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
AZ-5 Mitchell (D) Likely D D Favored Leans D Likely D
AZ-8 Giffords (D) Safe D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
AR-1 Berry (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
AR-2 Snyder (D) Lean D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
CA-3 Lungren (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Leans R
CA-4 McClintock (R) Safe R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
CA-10 Garamendi (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
CA-11 McNerney (D) Lean D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
CA-18 Cardoza (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Safe D
CA-44 Calvert (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Leans R
CA-45 Bono Mack (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Likely R
CA-47 Sanchez (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
CA-48 Campbell (R) Solid R Limited Risk Safe R Likely R
CA-50 Bilbray (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
CO-3 Salazar (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Safe D
CO-4 Markey (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Tossup Leans D
CT-2 Courtney (D) Safe D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
CT-4 Himes (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Likely D
CT-5 Murphy (D) Safe D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
DE-AL (Castle) (R) Leans D D Favored Leans D Leans R
FL-2 Boyd (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
FL-8 Grayson (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Likely D
FL-10 Young (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Likely R
FL-12 (Putnam) (R) Likely R Limited Risk Likely R Leans R
FL-13 Buchanan (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
FL-16 Rooney (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
FL-19 (Wexler) (D) Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
FL-22 Klein (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
FL-24 Kosmas (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
FL-25 Diaz-Balart (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
GA-8 Marshall (D) Likely D D Favored Leans D Likely D
GA-12 Barrow (D) Likely D Limited Risk Likely D Likely D
HI-1 (Abercrombie) (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D
ID-1 Minnick (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
IL-6 Roskam (R) Solid R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
IL-8 Bean (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
IL-10 (Kirk) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans D Tossup
IL-11 Halvorson (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
IL-13 Biggert (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
IL-14 Foster (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D D Favored Leans D
IN-2 Donnelly (D) Likely D Limited Risk Likely D Likely D
IN-3 Souder(R) Safe R Limited Risk Safe R Likely R
IN-8 Ellsworth(D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
IN-9 Hill (D) Leans D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
IA-2 Loebsack (D) Safe D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
IA-3 Boswell (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
IA-4 Latham (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
KS-2 Jenkins (R) Safe R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
KS-3 Moore (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
KS-4 (Tiahrt)(R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Likely R
LA-2 Cao (R) Tossup D Favored D Favored Leans D
LA-3 (Melancon) (D) Leans R Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Leans R
MD-1 Kratovil (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
MI-7 Schauer (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
MI-9 Peters (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Likely D
MI-11 McCotter (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Leans R
MN-1 Walz (D) Safe D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
MN-2 Kline (R) Safe R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
MN-3 Paulsen (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Likely R
MN-6 Bachmann (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Leans R
MS-1 Childers (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans D Tossup
MO-4 Skelton (D) Likely D D Favored D Favored Likely D
MO-9 Luetkemeyer (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
NE-2 Terry (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Leans R
NV-2 Heller (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
NV-3 Titus (D) Leans D Limited Risk Leans D Leans D
NH-1 Shea-Porter (D) Leans D Pure Tossup Leans D Tossup
NH-2 Hodes) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup D Favored Leans D
NJ-3 Adler (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Likely D
NJ-7 Lance (R) Solid R Limited Risk Leans R Likely R
NM-1 Heinrich (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NM-2 Teague (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
NY-1 Bishop (D) Leans D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NY-3 King (R) Safe R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
NY-13 McMahon (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NY-19 Hall (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Leans D
NY-20 Murphy (D) Likely D D Favored Leans D Likely D
NY-23 Owens (D) Leans D Tossup Leans D Leans R
NY-24 Arcuri (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Likely D
NY-25 Maffei (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
NY-26 Lee (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
NY-29 Massa (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Tossup
NC-8 Kissell (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Likely D
NC-11 Shuler (D) Likely D Limited Risk Likely D Likely D
OH-1 Driehaus (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans D Tossup
OH-2 Schmidt (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Likely R
OH-12 Tiberi (R) Leans R R Favored Likely R Likely R
OH-15 Kilroy (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans D Tossup
OH-16 Boccieri (D) Leans D Limited Risk D Favored Leans D
OH-18 Space (D) Leans D D Favored D Favored Likely D
OR-4 DeFazio (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
OR-5 Schrader (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
PA-3 Dahlkemper (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
PA-4 Altmire (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
PA-6 (Gerlach) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans D Tossup
PA-7 (Sestak) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup D Favored Tossup
PA-10 Carney (D) Likely D D Favored D Favored Likely D
PA-11 Kanjorski (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
PA-12 Murtha (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
PA-15 Dent (R) Leans R R Favored R Favored Leans R
SC-1 Brown (R) Likely R Limited Risk Likely R Likely R
SC-2 Wilson (R) Likely R Limited Risk Likely R Safe R
SC-5 Spratt (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Safe D
SD-AL Herseth Sandlin (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
TN-3 (Wamp) (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Likely R
TN-6 Gordon (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
TX-10 McCaul (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Likely R
TX-17 Edwards (D) Leans D D Favored D Favored Leans D
TX-23 Rodriguez (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
VA-2 Nye (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Leans D
VA-5 Perriello (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
VA-9 Boucher (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Safe D
VA-10 Wolf (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
VA-11 Connolly (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Likely D
WA-3 Baird (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
WA-8 Reichert (R) Leans R Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Leans R
WI-3 Kind (D) Likely D Limited Risk Safe D Likely D
WI-8 Kagen (D) Leans D Limited Risk Leans D Likely D

Races by state

Template:Congress TOC states 1

See also: Swing District

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

  • California's 39th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Linda T. Sanchez won by recent redistricting in a district traditionally known for solid republican support. Sanchez currently finds herself the focus of an ethics probe by the House Rules Committee for alleged violations involving the misappropriation of staff resources to aid equally embattled sister Loretta [D-CA, 47th] out of her budget [80] also view [81]. Though there has been no real opposition so far, businessman and conservative blogger/writer Chrystopher Smith who some say may be favored to oppose Sanchez for the republican nod in the primaries. Smith would be the first Afro-American conservative to hold a seat in that mixed demographic district and may factor in heavily with moderate voters. The district lies just outside the metropolitan Los Angeles area Los Angeles County the district includes Artesia, Bellflower, Cerritos, and parts of Long Beach Long Beach, as well as Hawaiian Gardens, La Mirada, Lynwood, South Gate, and parts of Whittier as the main body of the district.[42]

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

District of Columbia

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

  • Indiana's 9th congressional district: Incumbent Democrat Baron Hill has won in this district since 1998, except for in 2004, when he lost to Republican Mike Sodrel by 1,425 votes. Hill narrowly regained his seat from Sordel in 2006 and won another race with Sodrel in 2008 by a wide margin. However, Sodrel hasn't ruled out another rematch; other potential Republican candidates include Floyd County Prosecutor Keith Henderson, Bloomington attorney Todd Young, and Republican National Committeewoman DeeDee Benkie.[193] This southeastern Indiana district includes Bloomington and New Albany.[194] McCain won 50% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[42]

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

  • New York's 23rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Bill Owens won a special election in 2009 by 48.7% to 46.5% (3024 votes)[302] over a third party candidate, Conservative Doug Hoffman, after Republican Dierdre Scozzafava suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens less than three days before the election. While Obama won a majority of the district's 2008 presidential votes, Democratic candidate Owens failed to secure a majority in the 2009 election. The district has rarely embraced Democratic Congressional candidates; Republicans had been elected continuously since the mid-1800s, and in three of the previous six Congressional elections the district's Conservative Party candidate received more votes than a Democratic Party candidate. With less than a year before the 2010 election, a November 6, 2009 newspaper in Owen's district carried the headline "Owens Breaks 4 Campaign Promises in first hour in Congress",[303] referring primarily to Owen's announced support and eventual vote for House Resolution 3962. Owens will likely rematch in 2010 against Hoffman, who is expected to move his residence into the district and seek the Republican nomination along with that of the Conservative Party.[304][305]

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

American Samoa

District of Columbia

Guam

Northern Mariana Islands

Puerto Rico

U.S. Virgin Islands

See also

United States Senate elections, 2010
United States House of Representatives

References

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