2024 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions
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On July 21, 2024, Biden announced that he would pull out of the presidential race, allowing the Democratic Party to choose a new candidate.<ref name="BidenPull"/> He endorsed incumbent Vice President [[Kamala Harris]] for the presidential nomination.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Johnson |first1=Ted |title=Joe Biden Endorses Kamala Harris As Democratic Presidential Nominee |url=https://deadline.com/2024/07/biden-endorses-kamala-harris-2024-election-1236016931/ |access-date=21 July 2024 |work=Deadline |date=21 July 2024}}</ref> |
On July 21, 2024, Biden announced that he would pull out of the presidential race, allowing the Democratic Party to choose a new candidate.<ref name="BidenPull"/> He endorsed incumbent Vice President [[Kamala Harris]] for the presidential nomination.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Johnson |first1=Ted |title=Joe Biden Endorses Kamala Harris As Democratic Presidential Nominee |url=https://deadline.com/2024/07/biden-endorses-kamala-harris-2024-election-1236016931/ |access-date=21 July 2024 |work=Deadline |date=21 July 2024}}</ref> |
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===Democratic nominee === |
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Revision as of 19:51, 21 July 2024
 | This article may be affected by the following current event: Withdrawal of Joe Biden from the 2024 United States presidential election. Information in this article may change rapidly as the event progresses. Initial news reports may be unreliable. The last updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. (July 2024) |
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 2024 U.S. presidential election | |
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The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, initially ran for re-election in the Democratic primaries and won.[2] However, following a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate, many Democrats called on Biden to suspend his campaign. Despite some initial pushback, Biden withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.[3] His predecessor, Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to Biden in the 2020 presidential election.[4]
The presidential election will take place at the same time as elections for the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislatures. Trump was nominated during the 2024 Republican National Convention on July 15.[5] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerged as the highest-polling third-party presidential candidate since Ross Perot[6] in the 1992 election, running as an independent.[7][8][9] Leading campaign issues are expected to be border security,[10] immigration,[11] the economy,[12] abortion,[13][14][15] healthcare,[16] education,[17] LGBT rights,[18] climate change,[19][20] democracy,[21][22] and foreign policy.[23] The election has been marked by threats and violence, including doxxing, bomb threats, and swatting. On July 13, Trump was shot in an assassination attempt at one of his rallies.
The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[24]
Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. Both Biden and Trump are presumptive nominees for president in 2024, suggesting a rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[25] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[26]
Trump is the first president in American history to be impeached twice, and the first to run again after impeachment. Trump was first impeached by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives in December 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress due to his attempts to coerce Ukraine to provide damaging information on Joe Biden and misinformation regarding Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections by withholding military aid.[27] Trump's second impeachment by the House occurred on January 13, 2021, for "incitement of insurrection" owing to his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. As Trump was acquitted by the Senate in both cases, Trump is not barred from seeking reelection to the presidency in 2024.[28]
The Colorado Supreme Court,[29] a state Circuit Court in Illinois,[30] and the Secretary of State of Maine[31] ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution for his role in the January 6 Capitol attack, and as such, attempted to disqualify him from appearing on the ballot.[32][31] These attempts were unsuccessful, as on March 4, 2024, the United States Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states cannot determine eligibility for a national election under Section 3.[33]
Election interference
Current and former U.S. officials have stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election is likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[34] Donald Trump has made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of June 2024[update].[35][36] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[37] In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants in an attempt to delegitimize the election if Trump loses.[38][39][40] The claims have been made as part of a larger election denial movement in the United States.[41]
Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump
Trump's four criminal indictments totaling 91 felony counts and lawsuits against Trump are expected to be an issue during the 2024 presidential campaign.[42] On May 30, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump over falsifying business records for hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, to ensure her silence about a sexual encounter between them, to influence the 2016 presidential election. This makes Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[43] Trump faces an additional 57 felony counts; four counts in a United States of America v. Donald J. Trump for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election and involvement in the January 6 United States Capitol attack; 10 counts in The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al. for his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election in Georgia; 40 counts in United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira relating to his hoarding of classified documents and alleged obstruction of efforts to retrieve them.[44] In addition to his indictments, on May 9, 2023, Trump was found liable by an anonymous jury[45] for sexual abuse[46] in E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump and ordered to pay a total of $88.3 million combined for damages and defamation.[47][48][49] In September 2023, Trump was found guilty of financial fraud and ordered to pay a $457 million judgement currently on appeal.[50]
On July 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court delivered its 6–3 decision in Trump v. United States, ruling that Trump has presumptive immunity for official acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility, and no immunity for unofficial acts.[51][52][53] Thus, Trump's sentencing date for his convictions in New York was delayed from July to September 2024,[54] and likely the trial dates in Trump's other cases will be delayed as well, to review the applicability of the Supreme Court's decision.[55][56]
Political violence
Several scholars, lawmakers, intelligence agencies, and the public have expressed concerns about political violence surrounding the 2024 election.[57][58] The fears come amidst increasing threats and acts of physical violence targeting public officials and election workers at all levels of government.[59][60]
On July 13, 2024, Donald Trump, a former president of the United States and the Republican Party's presumptive nominee in the 2024 presidential election, survived an assassination attempt while addressing a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania.[61] Trump was shot and wounded on his right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old man from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania,[62][63] who fired eight rounds with an AR-15–style rifle from the roof of a building located approximately 400 feet (120 meters) from the stage. Crooks killed audience member Corey Comperatore and critically injured two other audience members.[62] He was subsequently shot and killed by the U.S. Secret Service's counter-sniper team.[64]
Electoral map
Effects of the 2020 census
This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[65][66] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[67]
Historical background
In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that the various swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[68] Strategists in both parties have stated the election will likely be decided by six percent of voters in these six states.[69]
North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[70] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, former swing states like Colorado, New Mexico and Oregon have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[71][72][73]
The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs best among Jewish and Black voters;[74][75] Whites who have attended college[76] or live in urban areas.[77] Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party moved significantly to the left on cultural issues.[78] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[79] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement.[80] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[81]
Some polling for this election has indicated that Democratic strength among Hispanic, Asian, Arab, and youth voters appears to have somewhat eroded, while Republicans' durability with Whites and voters over the age of 65 also appears to be slipping.[82][83][84][85][86] However, some political analysts[87] have argued that these apparent trends in polling are not representative of the actual electorate, and are a polling mirage resulting from poor sampling months before the election, large numbers of voters who do not think the election will be between Biden and Trump,[88] and heavy non-response bias.[89][90][91][92]
Abortion,[93][14][94] immigration, healthcare,[16] education,[17] the economy,[12] foreign policy,[23] border security,[10] LGBT rights,[18] climate change,[19][20] and democracy[21][95][22] are expected to be leading campaign issues.
Campaign issues
Abortion
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Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign.[11] This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[96] The three justices appointed by former president Donald Trump—Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.[97] The second court case is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[98] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[96][98]
Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right[99] while Republican politicians generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.[100] By April 2023, most Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it largely illegal throughout much of the United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early-stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[96]
Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[101][102] Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.[103]
Border security, immigration, and white demographic decline
Polling has shown that a majority of Americans want to reduce immigration into the country[104] and that a substantial minority are concerned about white demographic decline.[105] Border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election.[106][107] In 2023 and early 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred.[108] By June 2024, illegal crossings reached a three-year low following four consecutive monthly drops, which senior U.S. officials attributed to increased enforcement between the United States and Mexico, the weather, and Biden's executive order increasing asylum restrictions.[109]
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Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids,[110] deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[111] The New York Times reported that Trump is considering "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," such as "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled."[110] Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military.[103] Trump has made false claims of a "migrant crime wave" that are not supported by national data.[112]
Kennedy has stated that he supports securing the border, including efforts like Operation Lone Star by states in the absence of federal action.[113]
Climate change
Climate change is expected to be an issue in the 2024 presidential election.[19][20] Trump has ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change[114][115][116] and repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill",[117] has promised to increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[118] Trump has promised to roll back electric vehicle initiatives, proposed leaving the Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[118][119]
Democracy
Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[120][121][122] Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[123] Some Republicans are concerned that Trump's former impeachment and four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office.[124] However, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials are "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.[125][126] Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[127]
Economic issues
Voters consistently cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[128][129][130] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[131][132] Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[133] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents.[134]
Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[135] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation.[136] Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[137] of 10% on all imports,[138] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[118] Trump has called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[138] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[118] The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.[139] Trump's trade policies have been described as protectionist,[140] neomercantilist or autarkist.[137][141]
Education
Republican candidates see education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[142][143][17] Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[118] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[144]
Foreign policy
The ongoing Israel–Hamas war and Russian invasion of Ukraine are expected to be significant issues of the election.[145] Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its "America First" foreign policy agenda,[146][147] and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission, shifting the nation's defense burdens from Europe towards Asia.[118] Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO.[148] Trump has said he would cut off aid to Ukraine quickly if reelected.[149] Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[150] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[146]
Kennedy condemned Hamas' attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.[151]
Healthcare issues
The issue of healthcare and drug policy, including whether the United States should shift to a universal healthcare system,[152] and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.[153]
Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act a key issue of the 2024 election.[16] During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[154][155]
Kennedy has been a prominent anti-vaccine advocate, but according to Deseret News, he has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines.[156] West is running on a platform of Medicare-for-all.[157]
LGBT rights
In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that Democrats say restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[158][159] Trump has promised a rollback on Democratic-supported policies surrounding transgender individuals.[160] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[161] Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left."[162] Trump has pledged "severe consequences" for teachers who "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously withdrew Title IX provisions that allowed transgender youth to have access to the bathrooms of their choice, and he attempted to roll-back several transgender-related policies in the Affordable Care Act.[160]
Democratic Party
No popular vote held
On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[163][164] Republicans intensified their criticism of Harris after Biden declared his intention to run for office.[165] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[166] and Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham (all Democrats), publicly urged Biden not to run.[167][168][169]
In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many were concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would have been 86 at the end of his second term.[170] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans — including 51 percent of Democrats — believed Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating was 41 percent, while 55 percent disapproved.[171] There was also speculation that Biden might face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[172][173] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[174]
Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[175] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[176] On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[177] Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[178] Venture capitalist Jason Palmer announced his campaign on October 22.[179]
Williamson announced her initial withdrawal on February 7, 2024,[180] though she resumed her campaign a few weeks later.[181] On March 6, 2024, Philips suspended his campaign after failing to win any primaries the previous night on Super Tuesday,[182] followed by Williamson on June 11.[183] Despite being perceived as a minor candidate, Palmer won the American Samoa caucuses, making him the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since Ted Kennedy in 1980.[184] He won no other contests and suspended his candidacy on May 15, 2024.[185] On March 12, 2024, Biden obtained a majority of delegates, officially becoming the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.[186] Williamson re-entered the presidential race on July 2 and called for an open convention.[187]
On July 21, 2024, Biden announced that he would pull out of the presidential race, allowing the Democratic Party to choose a new candidate.[3] He endorsed incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris for the presidential nomination.[188]
Democratic nominee
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Personal U.S. Senator from California 49th Vice President of the United States Incumbent Vice presidential campaigns   |
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| TBD | TBD |
| for President | for Vice President |
Biden announced he would not accept the Democratic party's nomination on July 21, 2024 and endorsed Kamala Harris. Harris has yet to publicly comment on her candidacy leading into the 2024 Democratic Convention.
Republican Party
Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[189] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[190][191] Trump was considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[192] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[193]
In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[194] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[195][196]
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[197][198][199] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[200] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[201] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[202]
Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[203][204] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[205] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign. Trump became the only remaining major candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.[206]
On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[207]
On July 15, 2024, the first day of the Republican National Convention, Trump officially announced that Senator J. D. Vance would be his running mate. Trump had survived an assassination attempt days earlier with a gunshot wound to the ear.[208]
Republican nominee
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Business and personal 45th President of the United States Tenure
Impeachments Civil and criminal prosecutions Interactions involving Russia   |
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| Donald Trump | J. D. Vance |
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| 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) |
U.S. senator from Ohio (2023–present) |
Third-party and independent candidates
Third-party and independent candidates have also announced presidential runs. They include Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Cornel West. Centrist political organization No Labels intended to field a third-party "unity ticket", before abandoning their efforts in April 2024.[209] Some established third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party and the Party for Socialism and Liberation have announced presidential nominees, while the Green Party has begun their primaries. While independent/third-party candidates often do better in opinion polls than actual election performance,[8] third-party candidates, as of April 2024, have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot's high poll numbers in the 1990s.[210]
Notable party nominations
The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.
With majority ballot access
Libertarian Party
Chase Oliver was chosen by the Libertarian Party as its presidential nominee on May 26, 2024, at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Oliver was the party's candidate in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia.[211] As of May 2024[update], the party has ballot access in at least 37 states with a total of 380 electoral votes.[212]
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| Chase Oliver | Mike ter Maat |
| for President | for Vice President |
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| Sales account executive from Georgia |
Economist from Virginia |
Green Party
Jill Stein announced on May 26, 2024, that her campaign had accrued enough delegates to secure the Green Party nomination and thus became the presumptive nominee.[213][214][215] Stein was the party's candidate back in 2012 and 2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the Lexington Town Meeting. No running mate has yet been announced, with the 2024 Green National Convention to take place from August 15 to 18, 2024.[216] As of June 2024[update], Stein has ballot access both on Green Party and Independent ballot lines in at least 22 states with a total of 273 electoral votes.[217][better source needed]
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| Jill Stein | TBA |
| for President | for Vice President |
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| Physician from Massachusetts |
TBA |
With partial ballot access
These parties have ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.
- American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski, Connecticut school board member[218]
- Approval Voting Party: Blake Huber, nominee for president in 2020[219]
- Constitution Party: Randall Terry, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate[220]
- Green Party of Alaska: Jasmine Sherman, nonprofit executive and activist[221]
- Independent American Party: Joel Skousen, survivalist and consultant[222]
- Prohibition Party: Michael Wood, businessman[223]
- Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia De la Cruz, political activist[224][225]
Without ballot access
- Legal Marijuana Now Party: Dennis Schuller, chairman of the Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now! Party[226]
- Pirate Party: Vermin Supreme, performance artist and perennial candidate[227][228]
- Socialist Party USA: Bill Stodden, nonprofit executive[229][230]
- Socialist Equality Party: Joseph Kishore, writer and SEP nominee in 2020[231]
- Socialist Workers Party: Rachele Fruit, hotel worker and trade unionist[232]
- Transhumanist Party: Tom Ross, technology and political activist[233]
- Unity Party of America: Paul Noel Fiorino, perennial candidate[234]
Notable declared candidates
The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.
Independents
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after initially running in the Democratic primary, became an independent candidate in October 2023.[235][236] A member of the Kennedy family, he is an environmental lawyer who promotes conspiracy theories.[237][238] He has drawn support among independent and anti-establishment voters disillusioned with mainstream American political parties.[239][240] His polling, as of November 2023, was at the highest levels for a candidate outside the two major parties since 1992.[7][8] A member of the Kennedy family, Kennedy is a son of U.S. Attorney General and Senator Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Senator Ted Kennedy. On March 26, 2024, Kennedy announced Nicole Shanahan, an attorney from California, as his running mate.[241]
 (with the "We The People" party in some states) | |
|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Nicole Shanahan |
| for President | for Vice President |
_(cropped).jpg) |
|
| Environmental lawyer from California |
Attorney and technologist from California |
Cornel West
Cornel West is a socialist activist and intellectual who announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a People's Party and later a Green Party candidate.[157] His running mate is Melina Abdullah, an academic and civic leader from California.
(with the "Justice for All" party in some states) | |
|---|---|
| Cornel West | Melina Abdullah |
| for President | for Vice President |
 |
_(cropped).jpg) |
| Academic and activist from California |
Academic and civic leader from California |
Other independent candidates
- Shiva Ayyadurai, engineer, entrepreneur, and anti-vaccine activist; candidate for U.S. Senate from Massachusetts in 2018 and 2020[242][243][a]
- Johnny Buss, part-owner and vice president of strategic development of the Los Angeles Lakers[244][245]
- Joseph "Afroman" Foreman, rapper[246][247][248][249]
- Taylor Marshall, podcaster and author[250][251][247][252]
Withdrawn candidates
The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:
Opinion polling and forecasts
Opinion polling aggregation
Biden and Trump
The following nationwide polls feature Joe Biden, who was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic party before he withdrew from the race and endorsed Kamala Harris.
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
_polling.svg)
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | June 28 – July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 44.8% | 47.9% | 7.3% | Trump +3.1% |
| Race to the WH | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 44.1% | 46.2% | 9.7% | Trump +2.1% |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 43.3% | 46.6% | 10.1% | Trump +3.3% |
| Average | 44.1% | 46.9% | 9.0% | Trump +2.8% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
_polling.svg)
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Others/ Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 38.6% | 42.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | Trump +4.0% |
| 538 | through July 21, 2024 | July 21, 2024 | 40.2% | 43.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | Trump +3.3% |
| Average | 39.4% | 43.05% | 8.7% | 8.85% | Trump +3.65% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.2% | 43.4% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.2% | Trump +4.2% |
| Race to the WH | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.7% | 42.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 5.9% | Trump +2.9% |
| Average | 39.45% | 43.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 5.6% | Trump +3.55% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2024)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| Reuters/Ipsos[254] | July 15–16, 2024 | 992 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 43% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[255] | July 15, 2024 | 2,045 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Forbes/HarrisX[256] | July 13–15, 2024 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 51% | – |
| Activote[257] | July 7–15, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49.5% | 50.5% | – |
| Survey USA[258] | July 12–15, 2024 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| The Center Square/Noble Predictive Insights[259] | July 8–11, 2024 | 2,300 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 43% | 46% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[260] | July 7–11, 2024 | 1,847 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| NPR/PBS News/Marist College[261] | July 9–10, 2024 | 1,174 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Fox News[262] | July 7–10, 2024 | 1,210 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| NBC News[263] | July 7–9, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos[264] | July 5–9, 2024 | 2,041 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College[265] | July 7–8, 2024 | 1,370 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Morning Consult[266] | July 5–7, 2024 | 11,323 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Pew Research Center[267] | July 1–7, 2024 | 7,729 (RV) | – | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Lord Ashcroft[268] | June 28 – July 7, 2024 | 4,347 (LV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Bendixen & Amandi International (D)[269] | July 2–6, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 43% | 15%[d] |
| Daily Mail/J.L. Partners[270] | July 1–3, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| Cygnal (R)[271] | July 1–2, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[272] | July 1–2, 2024 | 1,070 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Wall Street Journal[273] | June 29 – July 2, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| CBS News/YouGov[274] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 2,815 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College[275] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 1,532 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 43% | 49% | 7% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[276] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 1,176 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[277] | June 29–30, 2024 | 869 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | 11% |
| Harvard/Harris[278] | June 28–30, 2024 | 2,090 (RV) | – | 48% | 52% | – |
| Forbes/HarrisX[279] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 52% | – |
| CNN/SSRS[280] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[281] | June 28, 2024 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Data for Progress (D)[282] | June 28, 2024 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[283] | June 28, 2024 | 2,315 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 45% | 13% |
| Leger/New York Post[284] | June 27–28, 2024 | 841 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[285] | June 26–28, 2024 | 1,244 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| The presidential debate between Biden and Trump is hosted by CNN in Atlanta. | ||||||
| New York Times/Siena College[286] | June 20–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Leger/New York Post[287] | June 22–24, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.01% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[288] | June 20–24, 2024 | 1,405 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[289] | June 18–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Morning Consult[266] | June 21–23, 2024 | 10,159 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| CBS News/YouGov[290] | June 17–21, 2024 | 1,878 (LV) | – | 49% | 50% | – |
| ActiVote[291] | June 5–21, 2024 | 2,029 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 52% | – |
| Rasmussen Reports[292] | June 20, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| Fox News[293] | June 14–17, 2024 | 1,095 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Morning Consult[266] | June 14–16, 2024 | 10,132 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[294] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| NPR/PBS[295] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,184 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 49% | – |
| Reuters/Ipsos[296] | June 10–11, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[297] | June 8–11, 2024 | 1,140 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Morning Consult[266] | June 7–9, 2024 | 10,260 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| CBS News/YouGov[298] | June 5–7, 2024 | 1,359 (LV) | – | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Cygnal (R)[299] | June 4–6, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 44.5% | 46.5% | 9% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[300] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,239 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Emerson College[301] | June 4–5, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | – |
| ActiVote[302] | May 23 – June 4, 2024 | 1,671 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 52% | – |
| Navigator Research[303] | May 23 – June 3, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[304] | May 31, 2024 | 2,200 (RV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Survey Monkey/The 19th[305] | May 30–31, 2024 | 5,893 (A) | ± 1.5% | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[306] | May 30–31, 2024 | 2,135 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[307] | May 29–31, 2024 | 1,675 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[308] | May 24–26, 2024 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| NPR/PBS[309] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,122 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[310][A] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College[311] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 50% | – |
| ActiVote[312] | May 6–21, 2024 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | – |
| Quinnipiac University[313] | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,374 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Harvard-Harris[314] | May 15–16, 2024 | 1,660 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 53% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[315] | May 14–16, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[316] | May 13–16, 2024 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 49% | 6% |
| Marquette Law University[317] | May 6–15, 2024 | 911 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| Reuters/Ipsos[296] | May 7–14, 2024 | 3,208 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[318] | May 10–13, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Fox News[319] | May 10–13, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 2% |
| Ipsos[320] | May 7–13, 2024 | 1,730 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| RMG Research[321] | May 6–9, 2024 | 2,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[266] | May 3–5, 2024 | 9,918 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[322] | May 1–3, 2024 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Data for Progress (D)/Zeteo[323] | May 1–2, 2024 | 1,240 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
| KFF[324] | April 23 – May 1, 2024 | 1,243 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[296] | April 29–30, 2024 | 856 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| ABC News[325] | April 25–30, 2024 | 2,260 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| ActiVote[326] | April 13–30, 2024 | 953 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 53% | – |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[327] | April 26–28, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[328] | April 26–28, 2024 | 887 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 42% | 43% | 16% |
| Morning Consult[266] | April 26–28, 2024 | 10,109 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| HarrisX/Harris[329] | April 24–25, 2024 | 1,961 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 52% | – |
| NPR/PBS[330] | April 22–25, 2024 | 1,109 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS[331] | April 18–23, 2024 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[332] | April 18–22, 2024 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[266] | April 19–21, 2024 | 9,791 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| John Zogby Strategies[333][B] | April 14–21, 2024 | 23,683 (LV) | ± 0.6% | 45.7% | 46.1% | 8.2% |
| University of North Florida[334] | April 8–20, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 47% | 9% |
| Marist College[335] | April 16–18, 2024 | 1,047 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Emerson College[336] | April 16–17, 2024 | 1,308 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Morning Consult[266] | April 15–17, 2024 | 7,990 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[337] | April 13–16, 2024 | 1,161 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| NBC News[338] | April 12–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[339] | April 11–15, 2024 | 1,171 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[340] | April 12–14, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[341] | April 7–11, 2024 | 1,059 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| ActiVote[342] | March 24 – April 10, 2024 | 995 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | – |
| Reuters/Ipsos[296] | April 3–8, 2024 | 833 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Morning Consult[266] | April 5–7, 2024 | 6,236 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[343] | April 3–5, 2024 | 1,265 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| RMG Research[344] | April 1–4, 2024 | 1,679 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College[345] | April 2–3, 2024 | 1,438 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 46% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[346] | March 31 – April 2, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Morning Consult[266] | March 29–31, 2024 | 6,018 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Data for Progress (D)[347] | March 27–29, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| NPR/PBS[348] | March 25–28, 2024 | 1,199 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Marquette Law School[349] | March 18–28, 2024 | 674 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | – |
| Forbes/HarrisX[350] | March 25, 2024 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Fox News[351] | March 22–25, 2024 | 1,094 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[352] | March 21–25, 2024 | 1,407 (RV) | – | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[266] | March 22–24, 2024 | 5,833 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| ActiVote[353] | March 8–22, 2024 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | – |
| HarrisX/Harris[354] | March 20–21, 2024 | 2,111 (RV) | – | 49% | 51% | – |
| The Economist/YouGov[355] | March 16–19, 2024 | 1,509 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[356] | March 15–17, 2024 | 941 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[266] | March 15–17, 2024 | 5,777 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Grinnell College[357] | March 11–17, 2024 | 715 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square[358] | March 11–15, 2024 | 2,510 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[359] | March 9–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 34% | 38% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[360][C] | March 12–13, 2024 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[296] | March 7–13, 2024 | 3,356 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| The Economist/YouGov[361] | March 10–12, 2024 | 1,367 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[362] | March 9–12, 2024 | 1,324 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[363] | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,482 (A) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Forbes/HarrisX[364] | March 8–10, 2024 | 2,017 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 52% | – |
| Morning Consult[266] | March 8–10, 2024 | 6,300 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Emerson College[365] | March 5–6, 2024 | 1,350 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Morning Consult[266] | March 1–3, 2024 | 6,334 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[366] | February 28 – March 1, 2024 | 1,246 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| The Economist/YouGov[367] | February 25–27, 2024 | 1,498 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| The Economist/YouGov[368] | February 18–20, 2024 | 1,360 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[369] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,421 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Marquette University[370] | February 5–15, 2024 | 787 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 51% | – |
| Emerson College[371] | February 13–14, 2024 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| The Economist/YouGov[372] | February 11–13, 2024 | 1,470 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[373] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,237 (A) | ± 2.9% | 34% | 37% | 29% |
| YouGov[374] | February 6–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 10% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[375] | February 2–3, 2024 | 917 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 15%[e] |
| NPR/PBS[376] | January 31 – February 2, 2024 | 1,441 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[377] | January 31 – February 2, 2024 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| The Economist/YouGov[378] | January 28–30, 2024 | 1,486 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[379] | January 27–30, 2024 | 1,217 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College[380] | January 26–29, 2024 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[381] | January 25–29, 2024 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Harvard-Harris[382] | January 17–18, 2024 | 3,492 (RV) | – | 47% | 53% | – |
| The Messenger/HarrisX[383] | January 16–17, 2024 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 52% | – |
| The Economist/YouGov[384] | January 14–16, 2024 | 1,472 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| CBS News[385] | January 10–12, 2024 | 1,906 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[386] | January 7–9, 2024 | 968 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[387] | January 3–9, 2024 | 4,677 (A) | ± 1.5% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Morning Consult[266] | January 5–8, 2024 | 6,376 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Ipsos/With Honor PAC[388] | January 3–7, 2024 | 2,027 (V) | ± 2.45% | 32% | 34% | 34% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[389] | January 3–5, 2024 | 1,247 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[390] | January 2–4, 2024 | 2,573 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| The Economist/YouGov[391] | December 29, 2023 – January 2, 2024 | 1,343 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2023)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[392] | December 13–19, 2023 | 841 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 54% | – |
| McLaughlin & Associates[393] | December 13–19, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 47%[f] | 10% |
| The Economist/YouGov[394] | December 16–18, 2023 | 1,336 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[395] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,027 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[396] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,647 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
| Echelon Insights[397] | December 12–16, 2023 | 1,012 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[398] | December 10–14, 2023 | 1,016 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College[399] | December 10–14, 2023 | 1,016 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 46% | 9% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[400] | December 10–13, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 4%[g] |
| The Economist/YouGov Poll[401] | December 9–12, 2023 | 1,332 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/CNBC[402] | December 8–12, 2023 | 1,002 (A) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs[403] | December 7–10, 2023 | 1,052 (RV) | ± 1.81% | 45% | 45% | 10%[h] |
| Rasmussen Reports[404] | December 6–10, 2023 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 48% | 14%[i] |
| Cygnal (R)[405] | December 5–7, 2023 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.16% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour[406] | December 4–7, 2023 | 1,129 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Emerson College[407] | December 4–6, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3% | 43.2% | 47.4% | 9.4% |
| SSRS/CNN[408] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | 10%[j] |
| The Economist/YouGov Poll[409] | December 2–5, 2023 | 1,291 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| HarrisX[410] | November 22–28, 2023 | 4,003 (RV) | ± 1.6% | 42% | 46% | 13% |
| YouGov[411] | November 20–27, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| Leger[412] | November 24–26, 2023 | 869 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[266] | November 24–26, 2023 | 6,527 (RV) | ± 1% | 43% | 42% | 16% |
| Emerson College[413] | November 17–20, 2023 | 1,475 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Harris X/The Messenger[414] | November 15–19, 2023 | 3,017 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[415] | November 14–17, 2023 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 47% | 8% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[387] | November 13–14, 2023 | 1,006 (A) | ± 3.8% | 33% | 35% | 32% |
| YouGov/The Economist[416] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,272 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| NBC News[417] | November 10–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[418] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| YouGov/Yahoo! News[419] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,058 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University[420] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,574 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[421] | November 10–12, 2023 | 6,130 (RV) | ± 1% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[422] | November 8–12, 2023 | 987 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[423] | November 1–3, 2023 | 1,242 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| CBS News/YouGov[424] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 2,636 (A) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| SSRS/CNN[425] | October 27 – November 2, 2023 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[426] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,021 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| YouGov/The Economist[427] | October 28–31, 2023 | 1,500 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[428] | October 27–30, 2023 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 43.5% | 14.5% |
| Quinnipiac[429] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[430] | October 20–22, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1% | 43% | 43% | 15% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[431] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Harvard Harris[432] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,116 (RV) | ± 2% | 41% | 46% | 14% |
| Emerson College[433] | October 16–17, 2023 | 1,578 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Yahoo/YouGov[434] | October 12–16, 2023 | 1,120 (RV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinions Strategies/CNBC[435] | October 11–15, 2023 | 1,001 (A) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Grinnell College[436] | October 10–15, 2023 | 784 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| NPR/PBS/Marist College[437] | October 11, 2023 | 1,218 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Fox News[438] | October 6–9, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 2% |
| SurveyUSA[439] | September 30 – October 3, 2023 | 2,330 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[440] | September 25–28, 2023 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| YouGov/The Economist[441] | September 23–26, 2023 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Marquette University[442] | September 18–25, 2023 | 781 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 51% | – |
| Morning Consult[443] | September 22–24, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 14% |
| NBC News[444] | September 15–19, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | 6% |
| Harvard/Harris[445][D] | September 13–14, 2023 | 2,103 (RV) | – | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| The Economist/YouGov[446] | September 10–12, 2023 | 1,500 (A) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 43% | 12% |
| Fox News[447] | September 9–12, 2023 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[443] | September 2–4, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| CNN/SSRS[448] | August 25–31, 2023 | 1,259 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[449] | August 17–21, 2023 | 1,113 | ± 2.7% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[443] | August 18–20, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Marist College[450] | August 11–14, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square[451] | July 31 – August 3, 2023 | 2,500 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Big Village[452] | July 24–26, 2023 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[453] | July 13–17, 2023 | 1,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[454] | July 13–17, 2023 | 1,098 | ± 2.7% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Marquette University[455] | July 7–12, 2023 | 788 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Morning Consult[456] | July 7–9, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[457] | July 5–6, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[456] | June 23–25, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[458] | June 19–23, 2023 | 2,875 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Emerson College[459] | June 19–20, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| NBC News[460] | June 16–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[461] | June 8–12, 2023 | 1,735 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[462] | June 9–11, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| YouGov[463] | May 25–30, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[464] | May 22–25, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac University[465] | May 18–22, 2023 | 1,616 (RV) | – | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Harvard/Harris[466] | May 17–18, 2023 | 2,004 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Marquette University[467] | May 8–18, 2023 | 791 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 52% | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[468] | May 17, 2023 | 1,117 (LV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| YouGov/The Economist[469] | May 13–16, 2023 | 1,302 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Premise[470] | May 12–15, 2023 | 1,591 (RV) | – | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Morning Consult[471] | May 12–14, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence[472] | May 10–13, 2023 | 1,571 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[473] | May 5–8, 2023 | 1,060 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[471] | May 5–7, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post[474] | April 28 – May 5, 2023 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| YouGov/The Economist[475] | April 29 – May 2, 2023 | 1,357 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College[476] | April 24–25, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Morning Consult[471] | April 21–23, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Cygnal (R)[477] | April 18–20, 2023 | 2,500 (LV) | ± 1.94% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris[478] | April 18–19, 2023 | 1,845 (RV) | – | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| YouGov/The Economist[479] | April 15–18, 2023 | 1,316 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Premise[480] | April 14–17, 2023 | 1,485 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[481] | April 14–17, 2023 | 1,027 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[471] | April 14–16, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| YouGov/The Economist[482] | April 8–11, 2023 | 1,322 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Morning Consult[471] | April 7–9, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[483] | April 4, 2023 | 1,180 (LV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| YouGov[484] | April 1–4, 2023 | 1,319 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Premise[485] | March 31 – April 3, 2023 | 1,562 (RV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[486] | March 30 – April 3, 2023 | 971 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Morning Consult[471] | March 31 – April 2, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[487][E] | March 31 – April 1, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[488] | March 30–31, 2023 | 729 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[489] | March 27–29, 2023 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[490] | March 26–27, 2023 | 2,550 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[491] | March 23–27, 2023 | 1,600 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[471] | March 24–26, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris[492] | March 22–23, 2023 | 2,905 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Marquette University[493] | March 12–22, 2023 | 863 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
| Premise[494] | March 16–21, 2023 | 1,509 (RV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[495] | March 20, 2023 | 1,250 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[496] | March 16–20, 2023 | 1,059 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[497] | March 16–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Morning Consult[471] | March 17–19, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[498] | March 9–13, 2023 | 1,635 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[471] | March 10–12, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Wick Insights[499] | March 6–9, 2023 | 1,125 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[500] | March 7–8, 2023 | 1,201 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Premise[501] | March 4–7, 2023 | 1,621 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Morning Consult[471] | March 3–5, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Cygnal (R)[502] | February 24–27, 2023 | 2,424 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[503] | February 23–27, 2023 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Susquehanna[504] | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | – | 52% | 39% | – |
| Emerson College[505] | February 24–25, 2023 | 1,060 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[471] | February 23–25, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[506] | February 21–23, 2023 | 1,023 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[507] | February 17–23, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[508] | February 19, 2023 | 1,102 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Morning Consult[471] | February 17–19, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Premise[509] | February 16–19, 2023 | 1,717 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[510] | February 16–19, 2023 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 1.5% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Harvard/Harris[511] | February 15–16, 2023 | 1,838 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Quinnipac University[512] | February 9–14, 2023 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[513] | February 6–13, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Morning Consult[471] | February 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[514] | February 8–12, 2023 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[515] | February 10–11, 2023 | 1,056 (RV) | – | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[516] | February 2–6, 2023 | 1,063 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[471] | February 3–5, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post[517] | January 27 – February 1, 2023 | 895 (RV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[518] | January 28–29, 2023 | 1,139 (LV) | – | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Morning Consult[471] | January 27–29, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Echelon Insights[519] | January 23–25, 2023 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[520] | January 19–24, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Morning Consult[471] | January 20–22, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Emerson College[521] | January 19–21, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Cygnal (R)[522] | January 19–20, 2023 | 2,529 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Marquette University[523] | January 9–20, 2023 | 790 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris[524] | January 18–19, 2023 | 2,050 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| YouGov/The Economist[525] | January 14–17, 2023 | 1,314 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[526] | January 16, 2023 | 1,458 (LV) | – | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| YouGov/YahooNews[527] | January 12–16, 2023 | 1,028 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[471] | January 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Morning Consult[471] | January 6–8, 2023 | 7,500 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence[528] | January 2–8, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2022)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult[471] | December 31, 2022 – January 2, 2023 | 8,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| Data for Progress[529] | December 22–29, 2022 | 1,189 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[530] | December 15–19, 2022 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[471] | December 16–18, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[531] | December 14–15, 2022 | 1,851 (RV) | – | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Echelon Insights[532] | December 12–14, 2022 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[533] | December 9–14, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[471] | December 9–11, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Suffolk University[534] | December 7–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research[535] | December 3–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[536] | December 5, 2022 | 1,162 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[537] | December 1–5, 2022 | 1,204 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Marquette University[538] | November 15–22, 2022 | 840 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 34% | 22% |
| Emerson College[521] | November 18–19, 2022 | 1,380 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[539] | November 17–19, 2022 | 1,036 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[540] | November 17, 2022 | 1,203 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris[541] | November 16–17, 2022 | 2,212 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Léger[542] | November 11–13, 2022 | 1,007 (A) | – | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Rasmussen Reports[543] | November 8–9, 2022 | 1,767 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Democracy Corps/GQR[544] | November 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | – | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[545] | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[546] | November 2, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | – | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[547] | October 27–31, 2022 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Benenson Strategy Group[548] | October 27–30, 2022 | 1,000 (V) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[549] | October 24–26, 2022 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research[550] | October 22–26, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Suffolk University[551] | October 19–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Emerson College[552] | October 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[553] | October 13–17, 2022 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[554] | October 12–17, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[555] | October 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[556] | October 12–13, 2022 | 2,010 (RV) | – | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[557] | October 12, 2022 | 1,110 (LV) | – | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Siena College/The New York Times[558] | October 9–12, 2022 | 792 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| John Zogby Strategies[559] | October 5, 2022 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[560] | October 2–3, 2022 | 1,128 (LV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[561] | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[562] | September 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[563] | September 20–21, 2022 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post[564] | September 18–21, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Premise[565] | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,703 (A) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Echelon Insights[566] | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,056 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Refield & Wilton Strategies[567] | September 14–15, 2022 | 1,163 (LV) | – | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Marquette University[568] | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Siena College/The New York Times[569] | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,399 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Harvard/Harris[570] | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | – | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[571] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[572] | September 2–6, 2022 | 1,247 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Premise[573] | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[574] | August 28, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research[575] | August 17–25, 2022 | 1,313 (RV) | – | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Emerson College[576] | August 23–24, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[577] | August 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Echelon Insights[578] | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[579] | August 18–22, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[580] | August 17, 2022 | 1,156 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[581] | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[582] | July 29, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | – | 35% | 42% | 23% |
| Harvard/Harris[583] | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports[584] | July 26–27, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Suffolk University[585] | July 22–25, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Emerson College[586] | July 19–20, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[587] | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[588] | July 11–14, 2022 | 1,085 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 48% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[589] | July 8–11, 2022 | 1,261 (RV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[590] | July 9, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[591] | July 5–7, 2022 | 849 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 41% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris[592] | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Emerson College[593] | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[594] | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[595] | June 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights[596] | June 17–20, 2022 | 1,030 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[597] | June 15, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | – | 38% | 41% | 21% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[598] | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,243 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[599] | May 30, 2022 | 1,173 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Emerson College[600] | May 24–25, 2022 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[601] | May 20–23, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[602] | May 19–22, 2022 | 1,360 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris[603] | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | – | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[604] | May 17, 2022 | 1,120 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[605] | April 28 – May 2, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 50% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[606] | May 1, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College[607] | April 25–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[608] | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[609] | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[610] | April 21–23, 2022 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[611] | April 19–22, 2022 | 1,187 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[612] | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | – | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[613] | April 18–20, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[614] | April 18, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[615] | March 31 – April 4, 2022 | 1,233 (RV) | – | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[616] | April 3, 2022 | 1,205 (LV) | – | 38% | 43% | 19% |
| Marquette Law School[617] | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris[618] | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[619] | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Echelon Insights[620] | March 18–21, 2022 | 1,050 (RV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell[621] | March 15–21, 2022 | 873 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[622] | March 20, 2022 | 1,193 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Emerson College[623] | March 18–20, 2022 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[624] | March 10–14, 2022 | 1,225 (RV) | – | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[625] | March 8, 2022 | 1,194 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Wall Street Journal[626] | March 2–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| Schoen Cooperman Research[627] | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[628] | February 24–27, 2022 | 1,532 (A) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| NewsNation[629] | February 23–24, 2022 | 1,046 (RV) | – | 37% | 41% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris[630] | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | – | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[631] | February 19–23, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[632] | February 23, 2022 | 1,367 (LV) | – | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[633] | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Emerson College[634] | February 19–20, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[635] | February 6, 2022 | 1,406 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[636] | January 20–24, 2022 | 1,568 (A) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Morning Consult[637] | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[638] | January 21–23, 2022 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Marquette Law School[639][k] | January 10–21, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | – | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| Harvard/Harris[640] | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[641] | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[642] | January 8–9, 2022 | 1,430 (LV) | – | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| PMC[disambiguation needed]/John Bolton Super Pac[643] | January 6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[644] | January 5, 2022 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2021)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[645] | December 17–19, 2021 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[646] | December 18, 2021 | 1,411 (LV) | – | 34% | 39% | 27% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[647] | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,558 (A) | – | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[648] | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[649] | December 5, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris[650] | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[651] | November 22–23, 2021 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 45% | 23% |
| Wall Street Journal[652] | November 16–22, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 46% | 45% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[653] | November 12–18, 2021 | 1,013 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[654] | November 11–16, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[655] | November 15, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 35% | 41% | 24% |
| Marquette Law School[656][l] | November 1–10, 2021 | 1,004 (A) | – | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[657] | November 4–8, 2021 | 1,673 (A) | – | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Suffolk University[658] | November 3–5, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College[659] | November 3–4, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[660] | October 31, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[661] | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[662] | October 19–21, 2021 | 1,704 (A) | – | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Echelon Insights[663] | October 15–19, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[664] | October 17, 2021 | 1,366 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Selzer and Company/Grinnell College[665] | October 13–17, 2021 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 40% | 19% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[666] | October 4–6, 2021 | 1,345 (LV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[667] | September 17–23, 2021 | 1,005 (RV) | – | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[668] | September 21–22, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[669] | September 19–20, 2021 | 1,330 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[670] | September 9–14, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[671] | September 4–5, 2021 | 1,357 (LV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College[672] | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[673] | August 16–17, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[674] | July 30 – August 2, 2021 | 1,552 (A) | – | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| PMC[disambiguation needed]/John Bolton Super Pac[675] | July 8, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[676] | June 22–24, 2021 | 1,592 (A) | – | 47% | 35% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[677] | May 24–26, 2021 | 1,588 (A) | – | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[678] | May 11–13, 2021 | 1,561 (A) | – | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[679] | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,106 (A) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| PMC[disambiguation needed]/John Bolton Super Pac[680] | April 3–7, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Chase Oliver vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||||||
| NPR/PBS News/Marist College[261] | July 9–10, 2024 | 1,174 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| NBC News[263] | July 7–9, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
| Daily Mail/J.L. Partners[270] | July 1–3, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| Wall Street Journal[681] | June 29 – July 2, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College[275] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 1,532 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 37% | 42% | 8% | <0.5% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| CNN/SSRS[280] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 41% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[682] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College[286] | June 20–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 40% | 7% | <0.5% | 1% | 2% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[683] | June 20–24, 2024 | 1,405 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 43% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[289] | June 18–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 37% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| Marist College[684] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,184 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Data for Progress (D)/Zeteo[323] | May 1–2, 2024 | 1,240 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 41% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Data for Progress (D)[347] | March 27–29, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||||
| The Center Square/Noble Predictive Insights[259] | July 8–11, 2024 | 2,300 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[260] | July 7–11, 2024 | 1,847 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| NPR/PBS News/Marist College[261] | July 9–10, 2024 | 1,174 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Fox News[262] | July 7–10, 2024 | 1,210 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| The Economist/YouGov[685] | July 7–9, 2024 | 1,443 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos[264] | July 5–9, 2024 | 2,041 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 42% | 43% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Emerson College[265] | July 7–8, 2024 | 1,370 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Lord Ashcroft[268] | June 28 – July 7, 2024 | 4,347 (LV) | – | 41% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[271] | July 1–2, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 38% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| The Economist/YouGov[686] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,392 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov[274] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 2,808 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 11% | 2% | 3% | – |
| Harvard/Harris[278] | June 28–30, 2024 | 2,090 (RV) | – | 38% | 46% | 13% | 2% | 2% | – |
| Forbes/HarrisX[279] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 37% | 42% | 16% | 2% | 3% | – |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[285] | June 26–28, 2024 | 1,244 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 40% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| AtlasIntel/CNN Brazil[687] | June 26–28, 2024 | 1,634 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 46% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| The Economist/YouGov[688] | June 23–25, 2024 | 1,406 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 10% |
| Leger/New York Post[287] | June 22–24, 2024 | 878 (LV) | ± 3.01% | 38% | 38% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 13% |
| The Economist/YouGov[689] | June 16–18, 2024 | 1,396 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Fox News[293] | June 14–17, 2024 | 1,095 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| New York Post/YouGov[690] | June 11–14, 2024 | 1,011 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 39% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[691] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| The Economist/YouGov[692] | June 9–11, 2024 | 1,399 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[299] | June 4–6, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College[301] | June 4–5, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38.4% | 44.4% | 5.9% | 1% | 1.2% | 9.1% |
| The Economist/YouGov[693] | June 2–4, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[307] | May 29–31, 2024 | 1,675 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[308] | May 24–26, 2024 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 37% | 39% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| The Economist/YouGov[694] | May 25–28, 2024 | 1,547 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[310][A] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 7%[m] |
| Emerson College[311] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 38.7% | 43.8% | 5.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 9.6% |
| The Economist/YouGov[695] | May 19–21, 2024 | 1,560 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[313] | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,374 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Cygnal (R)[315] | May 14–16, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 38% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[316] | May 13–16, 2024 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 43% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| The Economist/YouGov[696] | May 12–14, 2024 | 1,586 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Fox News[697] | May 10–13, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[322] | May 1–3, 2024 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 38% | 12% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| USA Today[698] | April 30 – May 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 37% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 15% |
| The Economist/YouGov[699] | April 28–30, 2024 | 1,479 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[328] | April 26–28, 2024 | 887 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| ABC News/Ipsos[700] | April 25–30, 2024 | 2,260 (A) | ± 2.0% | 42% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| HarrisX/Harris[329] | April 24–25, 2024 | 1,961 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 1% | – |
| The Economist/YouGov[701] | April 21–23, 2024 | 1,470 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| CNN/SSRS[331] | April 18–23, 2024 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 42% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[702] | April 18–22, 2024 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 37% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Marist College[335] | April 17–18, 2024 | 1,047 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News[703] | April 12–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Emerson College[336] | April 16–17, 2024 | 1,308 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 7% |
| The Economist/YouGov[704] | April 14–16, 2024 | 1,358 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[340] | April 12–14, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 40% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| NY Times/Siena[705] | April 7–11, 2024 | 1,059 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | 2% | <0.5% | <0.5% | 12% |
| The Economist/YouGov[706] | April 6–9, 2024 | 1,583 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 12% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[707] | April 3–5, 2024 | 1,265 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 38% | 38% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Emerson College[345] | April 2–3, 2024 | 1,438 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| The Economist/YouGov[708] | March 30 – April 2, 2024 | 1,604 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[709] | March 29–31, 2024 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 43% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| NPR/PBS[348] | March 25–28, 2024 | 1,199 (LV) | – | 43% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Quinnipiac University[710] | March 21–25, 2024 | 1,407 (RV) | – | 38% | 39% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| The Economist/YouGov[355] | March 16–19, 2024 | 1,510 (RV) | – | 44% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 10% |
| Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square[358] | March 11–15, 2024 | 2,510 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[365] | March 5–6, 2024 | 1,350 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[369] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,421 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 38% | 37% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Emerson College[380] | January 26–29, 2024 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac University[369] | January 25–29, 2024 | 1,650 (RV) | – | 39% | 37% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[396] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,647 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 36% | 38% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 5%[n] |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[418] | December 10–13, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 41% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 4%[o] |
| Emerson College[407] | December 4–6, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3% | 37% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Emerson College[413] | November 17–20, 2023 | 1,475 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[418] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 41% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[420] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,574 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 35% | 38% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[711] | July 15, 2024 | 2,621 (RV) | – | 42% | 43% | 6% | 9% |
| Pew Research Center[267] | July 1–7, 2024 | 7,729 (RV) | – | 40% | 44% | 15% | 2% |
| Daily Mail/J.L. Partners[270] | July 1–3, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 43% | 7% | 13% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[277] | June 29–30, 2024 | 869 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 10% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris[278] | June 28–30, 2024 | 2,090 (RV) | – | 39% | 46% | 15% | |
| Forbes/HarrisX[279] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | 43% | 19% | – |
| Patriot Polling[712] | June 27–29, 2024 | 1,029 (RV) | – | 41% | 44% | 11% | 4% |
| ActiVote[291] | June 5–21, 2024 | 2,192 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 42% | 44% | 14% | – |
| Reuters/Ipsos[713] | June 12, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 38% | 10% | 16% |
| ActiVote[302] | May 23 – June 4, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 42% | 45% | 13% | – |
| Reuters/Ipsos[714] | May 30–31, 2024 | 2,135 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 39% | 37% | 10% | 13% |
| ActiVote[312] | May 6–21, 2024 | 1,153 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 45% | 13% | – |
| Harvard-Harris[314] | May 15–16, 2024 | 1,660 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 45% | 14% | – |
| Reuters/Ipsos[296] | May 7–14, 2024 | 3,208 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 40% | 13% | 7% |
| Ipsos[320] | May 7–13, 2024 | 1,730 (RV) | – | 37% | 35% | 5% | 23% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[715] | April 29–30, 2024 | 856 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 38% | 8% | 15% |
| ActiVote[326] | April 13–30, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 41.2% | 44.4% | 14.4% | – |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[327] | April 26–28, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43.7% | 39.5% | 11% | 5.9% |
| HarrisX/Harris[329] | April 24–25, 2024 | 1,961 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% | – |
| Change Research (D)[716] | April 17–22, 2024 | 2,745 (RV) | – | 38% | 39% | 8% | 14% |
| ActiVote[342] | March 24 – April 10, 2024 | 995 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 44% | 15% | – |
| Reuters/Ipsos[717] | March 7–13, 2024 | 3,356 (RV) | – | 43% | 38% | 12% | 7% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[718] | January 3–9, 2024 | 4,677 (RV) | ± 1.5% | 29% | 30% | 18% | 23% |
| Quinnipiac University[396] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,647 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 38% | 36% | 22% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[404] | December 6–7 & 10, 2023 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 40% | 16% | 12%[p] |
| Cygnal (R)[405] | December 5–7, 2023 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.16% | 42% | 43% | 9% | 6% |
| Harvard/Harris[719] | November 15–16, 2023 | 2,851 (RV) | – | 36% | 44% | 21% | 0% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[387] | November 13–14, 2023 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 30% | 32% | 20% | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University[720] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,574 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 37% | 38% | 21% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[721] | November 8–12, 2023 | 987 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 39% | 12% | 11% |
| Sienna College[722] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 3,662 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 33% | 35% | 24% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)[723] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 40% | 39% | 12% | 8% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[428] | October 27–30, 2023 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 39% | 11% | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[724] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 39% | 36% | 22% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton[725] | October 29, 2023 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 38% | 40% | 10% | 12% |
| Susquehanna[726] | October 17–27, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 40% | 6% | 7% |
| McLaughlin and Associates[727] | October 23–26, 2023 | 449 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 39% | 14% | 11% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[728] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 14% | 11% |
| Harvard Harris[432] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,103 (RV) | ± 2% | 36% | 42% | 22% | - |
| Yahoo News/YouGov[729] | October 10–16, 2023 | 1,123 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 40% | 39% | 9% | 12% |
| NPR/PBS/Marist[730] | October 11, 2023 | 1,218 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 37% | 16% | 3% |
| Kennedy announces he will run as an independent candidate | |||||||
| Fox News[438] | October 6–9, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 41% | 16% | 2% |
| Cygnal (R)[731] | October 3–5, 2023 | 2,000 (A) | ± 2.16% | 39% | 40% | 12% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[732] | October 3–4, 2023 | 1,005 (A) | ± 4.0% | 31% | 33% | 14% | 22% |
| Echelon Insights[440] | September 25–28, 2023 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 40% | 14% | 10% |
| American Values[733] | September 24, 2023 | 1,008 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 38% | 19% | 5% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||
| The Wall Street Journal[734] | August 24–30, 2023 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 2% | 19% |
| Emerson College[735] | August 25–26, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 44% | 4% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[736] | August 15–23, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 41% | 42% | 6% | 11% |
| Emerson College[737] | August 16–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 5% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[738] | July 19–24, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 5% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[739] | June 26–29, 2023 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 43% | 4% | 11% |
| Emerson College[459] | June 19–20, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 41% | 6% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||||
| Big Village[740] | June 7–9, 2024 | 1,423 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
| Big Village[741] | May 3–8, 2024 | 3,032 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 41.9% | 40.6% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 7.5% |
| Big Village[742] | March 29–31, 2024 | 1,425 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 40% | 8% | 2% | 8% |
| SSRS/CNN[408] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 39% | 20% | 6% | 4%[q] |
| HarrisX[410] | November 22–28, 2023 | 4,003 (RV) | – | 33% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 11% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[743] | November 15–19, 2023 | 3,017 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 33% | 40% | 14% | 2% | 11% |
| Big Village[744] | October 30 – November 5, 2023 | 1,497 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 37.1% | 40.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 8.7% |
| CNN/SSRS[745] | October 27 – November 2, 2023 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 4% | 3% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[426] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,021 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 36% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac University[724] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 36% | 35% | 19% | 6% | 4% |
| McLaughlin and Associates (R)[746] | October 23–26, 2023 | 449 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 38% | 12% | 2% | 13% |
| Harris X/The Messenger[747] | October 16–23, 2023 | 3,029 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 35% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 12% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[431] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 37% | 13% | 4% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris X[748] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,116 (RV) | ± 2% | 31% | 39% | 18% | 3% | 9% |
| Zogby Analytics[749] | October 13–15, 2023 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 41.2% | 42.6% | 12.5% | 3.7% | – |
| Kennedy announces he will run as an independent candidate | ||||||||
| West announces he will run as an independent candidate | ||||||||
Biden, Trump, and Kennedy
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Others/ Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 38.6% | 42.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | Trump +4.0% |
| 538 | through July 21, 2024 | July 21, 2024 | 40.2% | 43.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | Trump +3.3% |
| Average | 39.4% | 43.05% | 8.7% | 8.85% | Trump +3.65% | ||
Biden, Trump, Kennedy, West, and Stein
| Poll source | Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.2% | 43.4% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.2% | Trump +4.2% |
| Race to the WH | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.7% | 42.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 5.9% | Trump +2.9% |
| Average | 39.45% | 43.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 5.6% | Trump +3.55% | ||
Electoral College forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecasters The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, Decision Desk HQ, and CNN are omitted for brevity.[r]
| State | EVs | PVI[752] | 2020 result |
2020 margin[753] |
IE May 8, 2024[754] |
Cook July 9, 2024[755] |
CNalysis July 19, 2024[756] |
Sabato July 3, 2024[757] |
CNN January 31, 2024[758] |
DDHQ July 9, 2024[759] |
538 July 19, 2024[750] |
Economist July 18, 2024[751] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 3 | R+8 | 52.8% R | 10.06% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Arizona | 11 | R+2 | 49.4% D | 0.31% | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
| Colorado | 10 | D+4 | 55.4% D | 13.50% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D |
| Florida | 30 | R+3 | 51.2% R | 3.36% | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Georgia | 16 | R+3 | 49.5% D | 0.24% | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) |
| Iowa | 6 | R+6 | 53.1% R | 8.20% | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Maine[s] | 2 | D+2 | 53.1% D | 9.07% | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Tossup |
| ME–02[s] | 1 | R+6 | 52.3% R | 7.44% | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Michigan | 15 | R+1 | 50.6% D | 2.78% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) |
| Minnesota | 10 | D+1 | 52.4% D | 7.11% | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup |
| NE–02[s] | 1 | EVEN | 52.0% D[t] | 6.50% | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup |
| Nevada | 6 | R+1 | 50.1% D | 2.39% | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) |
| New Hampshire | 4 | D+1 | 52.7% D | 7.35% | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup |
| New Jersey | 14 | D+6 | 57.3% D | 15.94% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D |
| New Mexico | 5 | D+3 | 54.3% D | 10.79% | Solid D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D |
| North Carolina | 16 | R+3 | 49.9% R | 1.35% | Tilt R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Ohio | 17 | R+6 | 53.3% R | 8.03% | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8 | D+6 | 56.4% D | 16.08% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | R+2 | 50.0% D | 1.16% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) |
| Texas | 40 | R+5 | 52.1% R | 5.58% | Likely R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Virginia | 13 | D+3 | 54.1% D | 10.11% | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup |
| Wisconsin | 10 | R+2 | 49.5% D | 0.63% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) |
| Overall | D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups |
D – 226 R – 268 44 tossups |
D – 226 R – 268 44 tossups |
D – 226 R – 251 61 tossups |
D – 225 R – 272 41 tossups |
D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups |
D – 226 R – 246 66 tossups |
D – 196 R – 312 30 tossups | ||||
Debates
In April 2022, the Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).[760] In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed hosting two debates outside of the CPD timetable and refusing to participate in CPD-hosted debates. Biden and Trump agreed to debates on CNN on June 27 and ABC News on September 10.[761]
June 27
CNN hosted the first major debate of the election on June 27, with 51 million viewers watching.[762] Media outlets characterized Biden's debate performance as a "disaster". Some pundits noted that he frequently lost his train of thought and gave meandering, confused answers.[763][764][765]
G. Elliott Morris and Kaleigh Rogers of ABC News' 538 argued that Biden had failed to reassure voters that he was capable of serving as president for another four years.[766] After the debate, elected officials, party strategists, and fundraisers conversed about replacing Biden as the party's candidate, including whether prominent Democrats should make a public statement asking him to step aside.[767] Biden stated that he would not be dropping out.[768] Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton reiterated their support for Biden following the debate.[769][770]
September 10
The second presidential debate is scheduled to be held on September 10 and will be hosted by ABC News.[771]
See also
Notes
- ^ Ayyadurai is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural-born citizen, but he claims he can run for office.
- ^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Third party" with 5%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 11%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" & "Don't know" with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 6%; "Not sure" with 4%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 10%; "Not sure" with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 8%; "Do not plan to vote" and "No opinion" with 1%
- ^ Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
- ^ "Undecided" with 3%; "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Don't know" with 2%; "Other" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" & "Not sure" with 6%
- ^ "No opinion" with 2%; "Other" & "Do not plan to vote" with 1%
- ^ The FiveThirtyEight forecast[750] and Economist[751] each rate only a handful of states as "safe." States rated safe by all other forecasts but FiveThirtyEight and Economist are omitted
- ^ a b c Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
- ^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed due to redistricting.
References
- ^ "Election Planning Calendar" (PDF). Essex-Virginia.org. Essex County, Virginia. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 7, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ a b "Biden steps aside as Democratic presidential nominee". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
- ^ Singman, Brooke (November 7, 2022). "Donald Trump announces 2024 re-election run for president". Fox News. Archived from the original on November 16, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
- ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ Nuzzi, Olivia (November 22, 2023). "The Mind-Bending Politics of RFK Jr". Intelligencer. Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
The general election is now projected to be a three-way race between Biden, Trump, and their mutual, Kennedy, with a cluster of less popular third-party candidates filling out the constellation.
- ^ a b Benson, Samuel (November 2, 2023). "RFK Jr.'s big gamble". Deseret News. Archived from the original on November 21, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s
- ^ a b c Enten, Harry (November 11, 2023). "How RFK Jr. could change the outcome of the 2024 election". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ Collins, Eliza (March 26, 2024). "RFK Jr. to Name Nicole Shanahan as Running Mate for Presidential Bid". The Wall Street Journal. Archived from the original on March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 26, 2024.
- ^ a b Arnsdorf, Isaac. "Trump brags about efforts to stymie border talks: 'Please blame it on me'". The New York Times. Archived from the original on January 28, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
- ^ a b Sahil, Kapur (April 17, 2024). "7 big issues at stake in the 2024 election". NBC. Archived from the original on July 3, 2024. Retrieved April 17, 2024.
- ^ a b Cook, Charlie (March 2, 2023). "Will 2024 Be About the Economy, or the Candidates?". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on March 25, 2023. Retrieved March 25, 2023.
- ^ For sources on this, see:
- Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023). "How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
- Weisman, Jonathan (April 11, 2023). "Pressured by Their Base on Abortion, Republicans Strain to Find a Way Forward". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 11, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
- Godfrey, Elaine (May 4, 2022). "The GOP's Strange Turn Against Rape Exceptions". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on May 4, 2022. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023). "How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
- ^ a b McCammon, Sarah (November 8, 2023). "Abortion rights win big in 2023 elections, again". NPR. Archived from the original on December 15, 2023. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
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- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Forbes/HarrisX
- ^ Activote
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ a b The Center Square/Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference
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auto68was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Pew Research Center
- ^ a b Lord Ashcroft
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto6was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto173was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Wall Street Journal
- ^ a b CBS News/YouGov
- ^ a b New York Times/Siena College
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ a b Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ a b c Harvard/Harris
- ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference
auto185was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Cite error: The named reference
auto27was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Leger/New York Post
- ^ a b I&I/TIPP
- ^ a b New York Times/Siena College
- ^ a b Leger/New York Post
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ a b Cite error: The named reference
auto121was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Fox News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ a b c d e f Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ Navigator Research
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Survey Monkey/The 19th
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ a b I&I/TIPP
- ^ a b Leger/The Canadian Press
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ a b McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ a b Quinnipiac University
- ^ a b Harvard-Harris
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ a b Echelon Insights
- ^ Marquette Law University
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ Fox News
- ^ a b Ipsos
- ^ RMG Research
- ^ a b I&I/TIPP
- ^ a b Data for Progress (D)/Zeteo
- ^ KFF
- ^ ABC News
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ a b Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ a b Leger/The Canadian Press
- ^ a b c HarrisX/Harris
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ a b CNN/SSRS
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ John Zogby Strategies
- ^ University of North Florida
- ^ a b Marist College
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ NBC News
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ a b Echelon Insights
- ^ New York Times/Siena College
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ RMG Research
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Data for Progress (D)
- ^ a b NPR/PBS
- ^ Marquette Law School
- ^ Forbes/HarrisX
- ^ Fox News
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ HarrisX/Harris
- ^ a b The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ Grinnell College
- ^ a b Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ Forbes/HarrisX
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ a b c Quinnipiac University
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Harvard-Harris
- ^ The Messenger/HarrisX
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ CBS News
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b c Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Ipsos/With Honor PAC
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ ActiVote
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auto233was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ a b c Quinnipiac University
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ New York Times/Siena College
- ^ New York Times/Siena College
- ^ Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News
- ^ The Economist/YouGov Poll
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/CNBC
- ^ Clarity Campaign Labs
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ a b SSRS/CNN
- ^ The Economist/YouGov Poll
- ^ a b HarrisX
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Leger
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Harris X/The Messenger
- ^ Echelon Insights
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- ^ NBC News
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auto37was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo! News
- ^ a b Quinnipiac University
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Rasmussen Reports (R)
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ SSRS/CNN
- ^ a b HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ a b American Pulse Research & Polling
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ a b USA Today/Suffolk University
- ^ a b Harvard Harris
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Yahoo/YouGov
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinions Strategies/CNBC
- ^ Grinnell College
- ^ NPR/PBS/Marist College
- ^ a b Fox News
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ a b Echelon Insights
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ a b c Morning Consult
- ^ NBC News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto7was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Fox News
- ^ CNN/SSRS
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ a b Morning Consult
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ NBC News
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- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Quinnipiac University
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auto139was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette University
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auto235was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Premise
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Morning Consult
- ^ WPA Intelligence
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- ^ ABC News/The Washington Post
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
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auto23was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Premise
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
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auto28was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov
- ^ Premise
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cygnal (R)
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auto189was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette University
- ^ Premise
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auto31was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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auto138was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Wick Insights
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Premise
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auto243was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Susquehanna
- ^ Emerson College
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auto40was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto21was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Premise
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auto9was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Quinnipac University
- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
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auto183was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto112was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ ABC News/The Washington Post
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auto224was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
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auto66was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
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auto70was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/The Economist
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auto205was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/YahooNews
- ^ WPA Intelligence
- ^ Data for Progress
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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auto84was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto13was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
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auto26was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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- ^ Echelon Insights
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auto125was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto24was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Léger
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Democracy Corps/GQR
- ^ Morning Consult
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auto238was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Benenson Strategy Group
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
- ^ Suffolk University
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auto47was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto62was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Siena College/The New York Times
- ^ John Zogby Strategies
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auto181was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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auto216was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ ABC News/The Washington Post
- ^ Premise
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto214was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette University
- ^ Siena College/The New York Times
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auto132was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Premise
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto158was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto187was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto211was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto114was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto116was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto184was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto69was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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auto176was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The New York Times/Siena College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto11was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto4was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto227was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto126was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto105was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto82was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto30was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto155was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
autowas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Morning Consult
- ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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auto240was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto2was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto75was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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auto144was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette Law School
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto152was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto97was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ University of Massachusetts Lowell
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auto219was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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auto230was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Wall Street Journal
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auto94was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ NewsNation
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auto102was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
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auto124was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto174was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
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auto35was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Marquette Law School Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
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auto100was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto159was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ "PMC/John Bolton Super Pac". Archived from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved March 4, 2023.
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
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- ^ Echelon Insights
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auto93was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Harvard/Harris
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Wall Street Journal
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auto134was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto49was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette Law School Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Harvard/Harris
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Selzer and Company/Grinnell College
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Echelon Insights
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auto122was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto169was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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- ^ Wall Street Journal
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- ^ Marist College
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auto168was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ AtlasIntel/CNN Brazil
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ New York Post/YouGov
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Fox News
- ^ USA Today
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ ABC News/Ipsos
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ NY Times/Siena
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ I&I\TIPP
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Patriot Polling
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Change Research (D)
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Harvard/Harris
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Sienna College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ a b Quinnipiac University
- ^ Redfield & Wilton
- ^ Susquehanna
- ^ McLaughlin and Associates
- ^ USA Today/Suffolk University
- ^ Yahoo News/YouGov
- ^ NPR/PBS/Marist
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ American Values
- ^ The Wall Street Journal
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Big Village
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ Big Village
- ^ CNN/SSRS
- ^ McLaughlin and Associates (R)
- ^ Harris X/The Messenger
- ^ Harvard/Harris X
- ^ Zogby Analytics
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Ultimately, Biden won the debate on policy but lost it on presentation, and failed to reassure voters he is up for another four years.
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