2020 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions

United States presidential election, 2020
538 members of the Electoral College; 270 electoral votes needed to win
	The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census. The 2020 election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; the subsequent two elections will use information from the as yet-to-be-collected 2020 United States Census.
Incumbent President; Donald Trump; Republican	; ;

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The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or reelect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, is seeking reelection to a second term. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The nominee then personally chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's presidential ticket (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.^[1]

The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution states that an individual can not be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. However, former presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush (both nonagenarians), having each served a single term as president, are not constitutionally prohibited from being elected to another term in the 2020 election.

Demographic trends

The age group of what will then be people in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.^[2]

A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians/others, and "whites with a college degree" are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. This shift is potentially an advantage for the Democratic nominee, however due to geographical differences, this could still lead to President Trump (or a different Republican nominee) winning the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.^[3]

Additionally, Washington, D.C. may lower its voting age from 18 to 16. Legislation was introduced by City Councilman Charles Allen in April 2018, with a public hearing expected for June, and a vote by the end of the year. Unlike other cities with a voting age of 16 such as Berkeley, California, this would allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote for President of the United States for the first time in 2020. Allen said that he was inspired by the high school students that participated in the March for Our Lives, which occurred at the capital in March.^[4]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.^[5] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.^[6]

Advantage of incumbency

An incumbent president seeking reelection usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against President Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against President George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

Nominations

Republican Party

Donald Trump is eligible to run for reelection and intends to do so.^[7] His reelection campaign has been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign."^[8] On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.^[9]

Beginning in August 2017, reports arose that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against Trump, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party.^[10] A poor showing for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections may lead to an influx of ambitious politicians vying to reclaim the nomination from Trump, as Arizona Senator John McCain has said that "[Republicans] see weakness in this president." Maine Senator Susan Collins, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have all expressed doubts that Trump will be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say."^[11]^[12] Meanwhile, Senator Jeff Flake has claimed that Trump is "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he is governing.^[13] Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicts that Trump may not seek a second term if he succeeds in keeping all of his campaign promises and "[makes] America great again," à la James K. Polk.^[14]

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.

Name	Born	Current or previous positions	State	Announced	Ref
Donald Trump	June 14, 1946 (age 78) New York City, New York	President of the United States since 2017 Candidate for President in 2000	New York	August 19, 2016 (Campaign • Website) FEC Filing	^[15]

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.

Nashville, Tennessee^[20] (withdrawn from consideration)

Democratic Party

After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless^[21] and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election.^[22]^[23]

This establishment/progressive divide was reflected in several elections leading up to the 2020 primaries. Most notably in 2017 with the election for DNC Chair between Tom Perez and Sanders-backed progressive Keith Ellison.^[24] Perez was elected Chairman, but Ellison was appointed as the Deputy Chair, a largely ceremonial role. In 2018, several U.S. House districts that Democrats are hoping to gain from the Republican majority had contentious primary elections. These clashes were described by Politico's Elena Schneider as a "Democratic civil war."^[25] Meanwhile there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate, likely to build up credentials for the upcoming primary election.^[26]^[27]

Perez has commented that the 2020 primary field will likely go into double-digits, rivaling the size of the 2016 GOP primary, which consisted of 17 major candidates.^[28] In the wake of the Me Too movement, several female candidates are expected to enter the race, increasing the likelihood of the Democrats nominating a woman for the second time in a row.^[29] Speculation also mounted that Democrats' best bet to defeat President Trump would be to nominate their own celebrity or businessperson with no government experience, most notably Oprah Winfrey after her memorable speech at the 75th Golden Globe Awards.^[30]

The topic of age has been brought up among the most likely front-runners: former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, and senator Sanders; who will be 78, 71, and 79 respectively on inauguration day. Former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid described the trio as "an old folks' home", expressing a need for fresh faces to step up and lead the party.^[31]

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.

Name	Born	Current or previous positions	State	Announced	Ref
John Delaney	April 16, 1963 (age 61) Wood-Ridge, New Jersey	U.S. Representative from Maryland since 2013	Maryland	July 28, 2017 (Campaign • Website) FEC Filing	^[32]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Michael Avenatti, attorney, entrepreneur from New York
Alec Baldwin, actor, writer, producer, and comedian from New York^[33]
Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States 2009–2017; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; candidate for President in 1988 and in 2008^[34]^[35]^[36]
Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey since 2013; Mayor of Newark 2006–2013^[37]
Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana since 2012^[38]
Julian Castro, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 2014–2017; Mayor of San Antonio, Texas 2009–2014^[39]^[40]^[41]
Eric Garcetti, Mayor of Los Angeles, California since 2013^[42]^[43]^[44]
Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California since 2017^[45]
John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado since 2011; Mayor of Denver 2003–2011^[46]^[47]^[48]
Eric Holder, U.S. Attorney General 2009–2015; Acting U.S. Attorney General in 2001^[49]^[50]^[51]
John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State 2013–2017; U.S. Senator from Massachusetts 1985–2013; Democratic nominee for President in 2004^[52]
Terry McAuliffe, Governor of Virginia 2014–2018^[53]^[54]^[55]
Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon since 2009^[56]
Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts 2007–2015^[57]
Bernie Sanders^{[note 1]}, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; candidate for President in 2016^[58]^[59]
Howard Schultz, businessman from New York^[60]^[61]

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced in May 2018. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.

Primary election polling

National polling

Poll source	Sample size	Date(s)	Margin of error	Joe Biden	Michael Bloomberg	Cory Booker	Sherrod Brown	Julian Castro	Hillary Clinton	Andrew Cuomo	Al Franken	Kirsten Gillibrand	Kamala Harris	Eric Holder	Jason Kander	Joe Kennedy III	Amy Klobuchar	Terry McAuliffe	Michelle Obama	Deval Patrick	Tim Ryan	Bernie Sanders	Elizabeth Warren	Oprah Winfrey	Mark Zuckerberg	Other	Undecided
Harvard-Harris^[66]	537	June 24–25, 2018	–	32%	3%	6%	–	–	18%	1%	–	1%	2%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	16%	10%	–	–	12%	–
Zogby Analytics^[67]	533	May 10–12, 2018	± 4.2%	26%	–	3%	1%	–	–	2%	–	1%	4%	1%	–	–	–	0%	–	1%	–	18%	8%	14%	–	–	22%
Rasmussen Reports^[68]	1,000	February 27–28, 2018	± 3.0%	25%	–	4%	–	–	9%	–	–	–	4%	–	–	–	–	2%	–	–	–	12%	4%	–	–	25%	17%
Civis Analytics^[69]	–	January 19, 2018	–	29%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	27%	–	17%	–	27%	–
Harvard-Harris^[70]	441	January 13–16, 2018	–	27%	–	4%	–	–	13%	2%	–	1%	4%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	16%	10%	13%	–	–	10%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times^[71]	1,699	December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018	± 2.0%	28%	–	3%	–	–	19%	–	–	2%	5%	–	–	4%	1%	–	–	–	1%	22%	11%	–	–	4%	–
RABA Research^[72]	345	January 10–11, 2018	± 5.0%	26%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	21%	18%	20%	–	–	15%
Emerson College^[73]	216	January 8–11, 2018	–	27%	–	3%	–	–	–	–	–	3%	2%	–	4%	–	2%	–	–	–	–	23%	9%	–	–	9%	19%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps^[74]	440	January 6–11, 2018	–	26%	–	6%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	29%	14%	8%	–	12%	6%
Zogby Analytics^[75]	682	October 30, 2017	–	19%	–	–	–	–	–	2%	–	1%	3%	–	–	–	1%	2%	22%	–	–	18%	8%	–	4%	–	20%
Zogby Analytics^[76]	356	September 12, 2017	–	17%	–	–	–	–	–	3%	–	3%	6%	–	–	–	1%	1%	–	–	–	28%	12%	–	7%	–	23%
Rasmussen Reports^[77]	1,000	February 8–9, 2017	± 3.0%	15%	–	8%	–	–	17%	–	6%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	20%	16%	–	–	20%	–
Public Policy Polling^[78]	400	December 6–7, 2016	± 4.9%	31%	–	4%	2%	0%	–	2%	3%	3%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	24%	16%	–	–	–	14%

Statewide polling

Iowa

Poll source	Sample size	Date(s)	Margin of error	Cory Booker	Julian Castro	Andrew Cuomo	Kirsten Gillibrand	Kamala Harris	Amy Klobuchar	Martin O'Malley	Sheryl Sandberg	Howard Schultz	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[79] (for an O'Malley-aligned PAC)	1,062	March 3–6, 2017	–	17%	4%	8%	3%	3%	11%	18%	4%	1%	32%

New Hampshire

Poll source	Sample size	Date(s)	Margin of error	Joe Biden	Cory Booker	John Delaney	Kirsten Gillibrand	Kamala Harris	John Hickenlooper	Joe Kennedy III	Amy Klobuchar	Terry McAuliffe	Martin O'Malley	Deval Patrick	Tim Ryan	Bernie Sanders	Elizabeth Warren	Mark Zuckerberg	Other	Undecided
Suffolk University^[80]	295	April 26–30, 2018	–	30%	10%	–	3%	6%	–	–	–	2%	–	8%	–	25%	–	–	1%	15%
Suffolk University^[80]	295	April 26–30, 2018	–	20%	8%	–	2%	4%	–	–	–	2%	–	4%	–	13%	26%	–	–	21%
University of New Hampshire^[81]	188	April 13–22, 2018	± 7.1%	26%	5%	–	1%	6%	1%	3%	1%	–	2%	–	0%	28%	11%	–	2%	13%
American Research Group^[82]	400	March 21–27, 2018	± 5.0%	58%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	33%	–	–	8%
American Research Group^[82]	400	March 21–27, 2018	± 5.0%	47%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	45%	–	–	–	7%
University of New Hampshire^[83]	219	January 28 – February 10, 2018	± 6.6%	35%	3%	0%	2%	1%	–	–	0%	–	1%	–	–	24%	15%	–	4%	15%
University of New Hampshire^[84]	212	October 3–15, 2017	± 6.7%	24%	6%	0%	1%	1%	2%	–	1%	–	3%	–	1%	31%	13%	2%	5%	11%

Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates

Libertarian Party

On December 10, 2017, the Libertarian National Committee chose Austin, Texas as the site of their 2020 national convention. The convention will be held between May 22–25, 2020.^[85]

Declared candidates

Name	Born	Current or previous positions	State	Announced	Ref
Zoltan Istvan	March 30, 1973 (age 51) Los Angeles, California	Transhumanist, journalist, entrepreneur, and Libertarian futurist Transhumanist nominee for President in 2016 Candidate for Governor of California in 2018	California	November 25, 2017	^[86]
Adam Kokesh	February 1, 1982 (age 42) San Francisco, California	Libertarian and anti-war political activist Candidate for U.S. Representative from New Mexico in 2010	Arizona	July 18, 2013 (Campaign • Website) FEC Filing	^[87]
Vermin Supreme	June 1961 (age 56–57) Rockport, Massachusetts	Performance artist and activist Candidate for President in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 Candidate for Mayor of Detroit, Michigan in 1989 Candidate for Mayor of Baltimore, Maryland in 1987	Maryland	May 28, 2018	^[88]

Green Party

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Jesse Ventura, Governor of Minnesota 1999–2003^[89]

Notes

^ This individual is not registered to the political party of this section, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party.

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^ Cite error: The named reference GQR/DCJan2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^ "The Zogby Poll℠: Michelle Obama tops all 2020 democratic hopefuls! Sanders still winning younger voters". Zogby Analytics. October 30, 2017. Retrieved November 1, 2017.
^ "The Zogby Poll: Feel the Bern! Sanders early favorite among 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls". Zogby Analytics. September 12, 2017. Retrieved September 15, 2017.
^ "Sanders Still Democrats' Choice for 2020, But It's Close". Rasmussen Reports. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 21, 2017.
^ Jensen, Tom (December 13, 2016). "Democrats Have Mixed Feelings on 2020 Field" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved December 13, 2016.
^ Debenedetti, Gabriel (March 15, 2017). "O'Malley tests 2020 waters with Iowa poll". Politico. Retrieved March 15, 2017.
^ Cite error: The named reference SUApr2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^ Cite error: The named reference UNHApr2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^ Cite error: The named reference ARGMar2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^ Cite error: The named reference UNHFeb2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^ Cite error: The named reference UNHOct2017 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^ Winger, Richard (December 11, 2017). "Libertarian Party Sets Location and Date of 2020 Presidential Convention". Ballot Access News. Retrieved December 23, 2017.
^ Kellogg, Spencer (November 25, 2017). "Interview With Libertarian Party Transhumanist, Running for California Governor, Zoltan Istvan". 71 Republic. Retrieved January 6, 2018.
^ "Adam Kokesh, jailed gun rights activist, to run for president". RT. July 19, 2013. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
^ "Adam Kokesh vs Vermin Supreme 2020". Adam Kokesh. May 28, 2018. Retrieved June 1, 2018.
^ "Jesse Ventura Talks Running For President In 2020 - w/Jess Ventura pt. 3". The Jimmy Dore Show. May 10, 2018. Retrieved May 11, 2018.

[a-58] This individual is not registered to the political party of this section, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party.

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[41] Poppe, Ryan (February 12, 2018). "Castro Eyeing 2020 Presidential Run, But Isn't Ready To Committ — Just Yet". KUHT. Retrieved April 21, 2018.

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[ECJan2018-74] Cite error: The named reference ECJan2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

[GQR/DCJan2018-75] Cite error: The named reference GQR/DCJan2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

[76] "The Zogby Poll℠: Michelle Obama tops all 2020 democratic hopefuls! Sanders still winning younger voters". Zogby Analytics. October 30, 2017. Retrieved November 1, 2017.

[77] "The Zogby Poll: Feel the Bern! Sanders early favorite among 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls". Zogby Analytics. September 12, 2017. Retrieved September 15, 2017.

[78] "Sanders Still Democrats' Choice for 2020, But It's Close". Rasmussen Reports. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 21, 2017.

[79] Jensen, Tom (December 13, 2016). "Democrats Have Mixed Feelings on 2020 Field" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved December 13, 2016.

[80] Debenedetti, Gabriel (March 15, 2017). "O'Malley tests 2020 waters with Iowa poll". Politico. Retrieved March 15, 2017.

[SUApr2018-81] Cite error: The named reference SUApr2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

[UNHApr2018-82] Cite error: The named reference UNHApr2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

[ARGMar2018-83] Cite error: The named reference ARGMar2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

[UNHFeb2018-84] Cite error: The named reference UNHFeb2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

[UNHOct2017-85] Cite error: The named reference UNHOct2017 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

[86] Winger, Richard (December 11, 2017). "Libertarian Party Sets Location and Date of 2020 Presidential Convention". Ballot Access News. Retrieved December 23, 2017.

[87] Kellogg, Spencer (November 25, 2017). "Interview With Libertarian Party Transhumanist, Running for California Governor, Zoltan Istvan". 71 Republic. Retrieved January 6, 2018.

[88] "Adam Kokesh, jailed gun rights activist, to run for president". RT. July 19, 2013. Retrieved November 5, 2017.

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v t e (2019 ←) 2020 United States elections (→ 2021)
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v t e United States presidential elections
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House elections Senate elections Gubernatorial elections

Revision as of 05:59, 5 July 2018

Background

Procedure

Demographic trends

Simultaneous elections

Advantage of incumbency

Nominations

Republican Party

Declared major candidates

Potential convention sites

Democratic Party

Declared major candidates

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Potential convention sites

Primary election polling

Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared candidates

Green Party

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

See also

Notes

References