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===Michigan===
===Michigan===
{{main|United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan, 2010}}
{{main|United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan, 2010}}
*'''{{ushr|Michigan|1|}}''': Ten-term Democratic incumbent [[Bart Stupak]] announced on April 9, 2010, that he would retire from the House and start a new career. This comes weeks after he was an integral part of getting the health care bill passed. He had previously held out, along with about twelve other Democrats, due to his pro-life position and his concern that the bill would fund abortions, but he announced that his group and President Obama had reached a compromise that would allow them to vote for the bill. This did not sit well with many opponents of the bill, and many Tea Party members, among others, started campaigning against him. He announced his retirement just as many Tea Party members were going to descend on the Upper Peninsula in protest of Stupak's support. Barack Obama narrowly carried the district with 50% of the vote in 2008.
*'''{{ushr|Michigan|1|}}''': Ten-term Democratic incumbent [[Bart Stupak]] announced on April 9, 2010, that he would retire from the House and start a new career. This comes weeks after he was an integral part of getting the health care bill passed. He had previously held out, along with about twelve other Democrats, due to his pro-life position and his concern that the bill would fund abortions, but he announced that his group and President Obama had reached a compromise that would allow them to vote for the bill. This did not sit well with many opponents of the bill, and many Tea Party members, among others, started campaigning against him. He announced his retirement just as many Tea Party members were going to descend on the Upper Peninsula in protest of Stupak's support. Barack Obama narrowly carried the district with 50% of the vote in 2008. ([[Cook Partisan Voting Index]] R+3)


*'''{{ushr|Michigan|2|}}''': Republican [[Peter Hoekstra]] announced he will retire in order to [[Michigan gubernatorial election, 2010|run]] for [[Governor of Michigan]].<ref name="cqpolitics1"/> [[Michigan House of Representatives|State Representative]] [[Bill Huizenga]], former pro-football player [[Jay Riemersma]], businessman Bill Cooper, and [[Michigan Senate|State Senator]] Wayne Kuipers will face off for the Republican nomination.<ref>http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/10/fourth-republican-joins-michig.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=eye-on-2010</ref> Author, teacher, and activist [[Bob Wood (author)|Bob Wood]] has announced his candidacy as a Democrat.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.politics1.com/mi.htm|title=Online Guide to Michigan Politics|publisher=Politics1|date=|accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> This western Michigan district includes the cities of [[Muskegon, Michigan|Muskegon]], [[Holland, Michigan|Holland]], and [[Ludington, Michigan|Ludington]]. John McCain narrowly carried the district with 51% of the vote in 2008.<ref>{{cite web|author=Member Profile|url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000000241|title=Profile for Rep. Peter Hoekstra, Michigan Republican, West - Muskegon, Holland|publisher=CQ Politics|date=|accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> ([[Cook Partisan Voting Index]] R+7).<ref name=cpvi/>
*'''{{ushr|Michigan|2|}}''': Republican [[Peter Hoekstra]] announced he will retire in order to [[Michigan gubernatorial election, 2010|run]] for [[Governor of Michigan]].<ref name="cqpolitics1"/> [[Michigan House of Representatives|State Representative]] [[Bill Huizenga]], former pro-football player [[Jay Riemersma]], businessman Bill Cooper, and [[Michigan Senate|State Senator]] Wayne Kuipers will face off for the Republican nomination.<ref>http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/10/fourth-republican-joins-michig.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=eye-on-2010</ref> Author, teacher, and activist [[Bob Wood (author)|Bob Wood]] has announced his candidacy as a Democrat.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.politics1.com/mi.htm|title=Online Guide to Michigan Politics|publisher=Politics1|date=|accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> This western Michigan district includes the cities of [[Muskegon, Michigan|Muskegon]], [[Holland, Michigan|Holland]], and [[Ludington, Michigan|Ludington]]. John McCain narrowly carried the district with 51% of the vote in 2008.<ref>{{cite web|author=Member Profile|url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000000241|title=Profile for Rep. Peter Hoekstra, Michigan Republican, West - Muskegon, Holland|publisher=CQ Politics|date=|accessdate=2009-07-28}}</ref> ([[Cook Partisan Voting Index]] R+7).<ref name=cpvi/>

Revision as of 21:16, 9 April 2010

United States House of Representatives elections, 2010
← 2008 November 2, 2010
All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 5 (of the 6) non-voting members
 
Leader Nancy Pelosi John Boehner
Party Democratic Republican
Leader's seat California-8th Ohio-8th
Last election 257 seats, 59.1% 178 seats, 40.9%
Current seats 257 seats, 59.1% 178 seats, 40.9%
The current congressional districts for the 111th Congress
Incumbent Speaker of the House

Nancy Pelosi
Democratic



For complete list of the races in all districts, but without commentary, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2010 - complete list.

The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 2, 2010, halfway through President Barack Obama's first term in office. Elections will be held for all 435 seats, representing the 50 U.S. states. Elections also will be held for the delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five major U.S. territories. The only seat in the United States House of Representatives not up for election is that of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term and will next face election in 2012.

The winners of this election cycle will serve in the 112th Congress.

Background

Following the 2006 elections, Democrats took control of the House as well as the Senate. In the 2008 elections, which coincided with Democrat Barack Obama's victory over Republican John McCain for the presidency, Democrats increased their majorities in both chambers. Of the 435 congressional districts, 242 were carried by Obama, while 193 voted for McCain. Of the districts Obama won, 34 elected a Republican to the House, while 49 of the districts McCain won elected a Democrat.[1]

Republicans are hoping to win back many of the swing districts they lost in the two previous elections.[2] Both parties have been preparing to defend seats that they risk losing. Democrats, who occupy more of the swing districts, are operating more on the defensive than the Republicans. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has highlighted 40 Democratic incumbents at risk, part of their "Frontline Program."[3] The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has in turn highlighted 10 Republican incumbents at risk, part of their "Patriot Program."[4] They later added 15 additional names to the list, bringing the total to 25.[5]

Recently the Republicans have taken a lead in aggregate polling for the generic congressional ballot.[6] The non-partisan Cook Political Report has stated that Republicans may pick up a net 20-30 seats in the 2010 elections.[7] And Michael Barone has predicted that, in light of historic Republican advantages in the latest generic ballot polls, Republican pick-ups could potentially exceed the 54 seats Republicans won in the 1994 midterm elections.[8]

This will be the last congressional election using congressional districts that were drawn based on the 2000 census.

Retiring incumbents

35 U.S. Representatives will retire at the end of their current term and 5 vacancies will be filled by special elections before November.

Retiring Democrats (16 incumbents)

Retiring Republicans (19 incumbents)

Vacancies (To be filled before November)

The winners of these special elections will be up for election to a full term in November.

Democratic Seats (4 seats)

Republican Seats (1 seat)

Predictions

Overall

Most non-partisan pundits predict that the Republicans will gain seats in the 2010 elections, and it is possible that the Republicans could retake control of the House in 2010.

In April 2009, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "... the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not 'close to zero.' Not 'slight' or 'small.' Zero." In the same column, Rothenberg wrote "It’s not yet clear which party will gain seats in next year’s midterms or how large the swing will be. The GOP could well gain back some ground, given how far its House numbers have fallen."[44]

However, by late September 2009, Rothenberg changed his predictions, writing that the "national political landscape has changed noticeably over the past few months, with Republicans the beneficiaries" and that "Democratic control of the House is not now at risk."[45]

In a May 2009 column for his newsletter, Larry Sabato wrote "History instead suggests that the overall odds favor Republican gains in the House in 2010, but relatively modest gains. After all, Democrats now hold 257 House seats, 39 seats more than the minimum needed to control the House. Only Truman in 1946 and Clinton in 1994 yielded more than 39 seats to the opposition party in their first midterm election."[46]

In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."[47]

In an August 2009 prediction, he wrote that the Democrats would suffer a loss of between 20 to 50 seats in the 2010 House elections.[48] In another August prediction, Silver wrote "While the Democrats are not extraordinary likely to lose the House, such an outcome is certainly well within the realm of possibility (I'd put the chance at somewhere between 1-in-4 and 1-in-3)." [49] In September 2009, an article titled "Generic House Polling Suggests the Republicans Could Regain the House in 2010" was published on Silver's blog, FiveThirtyEight.com.[50]

Race ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included are currently considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)

District Incumbent Cook[51] Rothenberg[52] CQ Politics[53] Crystal Ball[54]
AL-2 Bright (D) Lean D Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup
AL-5 Griffith (R) Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R
AK-AL Young (R) Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R
AZ-1 Kirkpatrick (D) Lean D Safe D Likely D Tossup
AZ-3 (Shadegg) (R) Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R
AZ-5 Mitchell (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D
AZ-8 Giffords (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Leans D
AR-1 (Berry) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans D Leans D
AR-2 (Snyder) (D) Lean R Pure Tossup Leans R Leans R
AR-4 Ross (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
CA-3 Lungren (R) Lean R Leans R Leans R Leans R
CA-11 McNerney (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D
CA-18 Cardoza (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
CA-20 Costa (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
CA-44 Calvert (R) Likely R R Favored Likely R Likely R
CA-45 Bono Mack (R) Likely R R Favored Likely R Likely R
CA-47 Sanchez (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D
CA-50 Bilbray (R) Solid R Safe R Safe R Likely R
CO-3 Salazar (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Leans D
CO-4 Markey (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
CO-7 Perlmutter (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
CT-4 Himes (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
CT-5 C. Murphy (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D
DE-AL (Castle) (R) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D
FL-2 Boyd (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
FL-8 Grayson (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans D
FL-12 (Putnam) (R) Likely R Safe R Likely R Leans R
FL-13 Buchanan (R) Solid R Safe R Safe R Likely R
FL-16 Rooney (R) Solid R Safe R Safe R Likely R
FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) (R) Solid R Safe R Safe R Likely R
FL-22 Klein (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Leans D
FL-24 Kosmas (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Tossup Tossup
FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart (R) Solid R Safe R Safe R Leans R
GA-8 Marshall (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D
GA-12 Barrow (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
HI-1 (Open) (D) Tossup Leans D Leans D Leans D
ID-1 Minnick (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup
IL-8 Bean (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D
IL-10 (Kirk) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
IL-11 Halvorson (D) Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D
IL-14 Foster (D) Lean D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D
IN-2 Donnelly (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Leans D
IN-8 (Ellsworth) (D) Lean R Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
IN-9 Hill (D) Tossup Leans D Leans D Tossup
IA-1 Braley (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
IA-2 Loebsack (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Likely D
IA-3 Boswell (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D
KS-3 (Moore) (D) Lean R Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R
KS-4 (Tiahrt) (R) Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R
KY-3 Yarmuth (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
KY-6 Chandler (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
LA-2 Cao (R) Tossup D Favored Likely D Leans D
LA-3 (Melancon) (D) Likely R Leans R Leans R Leans R
MD-1 Kratovil (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R
MA-10 (Delahunt) (D) Tossup D Favored Leans D Leans D
MI-1 (Stupak) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Safe D
MI-7 Schauer (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
MI-9 Peters (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Leans D
MN-1 Walz (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
MN-3 Paulsen (R) Solid R R Favored Likely R Safe R
MN-6 Bachmann (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Likely R
MS-1 Childers (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R
MO-3 Carnahan (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
MO-4 Skelton (D) Lean D Leans D Likely D Likely D
NE-2 Terry (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Likely R
NV-3 Titus (D) Tossup Leans D Tossup Tossup
NH-1 Shea-Porter (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans D Leans R
NH-2 (Hodes) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Leans R
NJ-3 Adler (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D
NM-1 Heinrich (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
NM-2 Teague (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R
NY-1 Bishop (D) Lean D Leans D Likely D Likely D
NY-13 McMahon (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Likely D
NY-19 Hall (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Likely D
NY-20 S. Murphy (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D
NY-23 Owens (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Tossup
NY-24 Arcuri (D) Tossup Leans D Leans D Leans D
NY-25 Maffei (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
NY-29 (Open) Lean R Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
NC-8 Kissell (D) Likely D D Favored Leans D Leans D
NC-11 Shuler (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
ND-AL Pomeroy (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Tossup
OH-1 Driehaus (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R
OH-2 Schmidt (R) Likely R R Favored Likely R Leans R
OH-6 C. Wilson (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
OH-12 Tiberi (R) Likely R R Favored Likely R Likely R
OH-13 Sutton (D) Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D
OH-15 Kilroy (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R
OH-16 Boccieri (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Leans D
OH-18 Space (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D
OR-1 Wu (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
OR-5 Schrader (D) Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D
PA-3 Dahlkemper (D) Lean D Safe D Leans D Leans D
PA-4 Altmire (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D
PA-6 Gerlach (R) Lean R Leans R Leans R Likely R
PA-7 (Sestak) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
PA-8 P. Murphy (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Tossup
PA-10 Carney (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D
PA-11 Kanjorski (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Tossup
PA-12 (Open) Tossup D Favored Tossup Tossup
PA-15 Dent (R) Lean R R Favored Leans R Leans R
PA-17 Holden (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D
RI-1 (Kennedy) (D) Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D
SC-1 (Brown) (R) Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R
SC-2 J. Wilson (R) Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R
SC-5 Spratt (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Leans D
SD-AL Herseth Sandlin (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Tossup
TN-4 Davis (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D
TN-6 (Gordon) (D) Likely R Leans R Safe R Leans R
TN-8 (Tanner) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Leans R
TX-17 Edwards (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Leans D
TX-23 Rodriguez (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
VA-2 Nye (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Tossup
VA-5 Perriello (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup
VA-9 Boucher (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Likely D
VA-11 Connolly (D) Lean D Safe D Likely D Leans D
WA-2 Larsen (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
WA-3 (Baird) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup
WA-8 Reichert (R) Likely R Leans R Leans R Leans R
WV-1 Mollohan (D) Tossup Leans D Likely D Likely D
WV-3 Rahall (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
WI-3 Kind (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D
WI-7 Obey (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D
WI-8 Kagen (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Likely D

Races by state

Template:Congress TOC states 1

See also: Swing District

Alabama

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama, 2010

Alaska

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2010

Arizona

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2010

Arkansas

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2010

California

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2010
  • California's 44th congressional district: Republican incumbent Ken Calvert defeated Democratic challenger Bill Hedrick by a slim 51% to 49% margin in 2008, despite Hedrick's being heavily outspent. Hedrick has announced he will seek a rematch. Calvert has announced he will seek reelection[96] and will face a primary challenge from Chris Riggs, a real estate broker.[97] A poll commissioned by the Hedrick campaign showed Calvert leading Hedrick 49% to 35% despite the fact that the same poll showed that 41% of voters perfered someone else compared with 38% who would re-elect the incumbent.[91] This district, which includes Riverside, Norco, and Corona, was close in 2008: Barack Obama won 49.5% of the vote to John McCain's 48.6%.[98] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[61]

Colorado

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado, 2010

Connecticut

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Connecticut, 2010

Delaware

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Delaware, 2010

Florida

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2010
  • Florida's 8th congressional district: Freshman Democratic incumbent Alan Grayson unseated Republican incumbent Ric Keller in 2008 52% to 48%. Known for his tough questioning of people involved in the current financial crisis, Grayson was reportedly the victim of a Ponzi scheme, in which he reportedly lost millions of dollars.[132] He has also been at odds with his hometown newspaper, the Orlando Sentinel.[133] Notorious for his comment about the Republican health care plans, Grayson has suggested they are about making sick people "die quickly", and called the inability to fix the American health care system "the holocaust in America".[134] Grayson has threatened a local critic with jail time, and referred to conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh as a "has-been hypocrite loser" who "was more lucid when he was a drug addict."[135] While on MSNBC, Grayson referred to former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney as a "vampire" with "blood that drips from his teeth". He called a Federal Reserve senior advisor "K Street Whore" and suggested citizens wanted "A congressman with guts". Republicans running so far include state Representative Kurt Kelly; Dan Fanelli, a former pilot; Patricia Sullivan, GOP activist; Ken Miller, a doctor; 2008 GOP candidate Todd Long; and Armando Gutierrez, an entrepreneur.[136] National Republicans are trying to recruit businessman Bruce O'Donoghue into this race.[137] On February 8, 2010, O'Donoghue announced that he is running against Grayson.[138] The candidates remaining are not the candidates the Republican Party has initially suggested they would like to see run.[139] This central Florida district includes most of Orlando as well as its suburbs of Conway and Ocoee. Barack Obama won 52% of vote here in 2008.[140] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[61]
  • Florida's 25th congressional district: Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart had a difficult reelection in 2008, winning 53% to 47% percent against Joe Garcia, the former chair of the Metro-Dade Democratic Party. On February 11, Diaz-Balart turned this into an open seat when he announced that he would be a candidate in a neighboring district currently represented by his brother, Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart [18]. Possible Republican candidates to succeed Diaz-Balart in this district include state Representative David Rivera, a close ally of the Diaz-Balart brothers, state Representative Anitere Flores, state Senate Majority Leader Alex Diaz de la Portilla, state Senator Alex Villalobos, and Carlos Curbelo, an aide to interim U.S. Senator George LeMieux [19]. Among Democrats, Garcia may seek a rematch in 2010.[163] This southwestern Florida district consists of Collier County, Monroe County, and western Miami Dade County and includes the communities of Cutler Ridge, Leisure City, and Homestead, as well as the Florida Everglades. John McCain narrowly carried the district with less than 50% of the vote in 2008.[164] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[61]

Georgia

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Georgia, 2010

Hawaii

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Hawaii, 2010

Idaho

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho, 2010

Illinois

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Illinois, 2010
  • Illinois's 11th congressional district: Democrat Debbie Halvorson is a Freshman congresswoman who represents the most conservative district held by a Democrat in Illinois. She won the open seat in 2008 with 59% of the vote. In 2004, Bush carried her district with 53%, while Obama carried the district in 2008 with the same amount. Her Republican opponent in 2010 is military veteran and county board member Adam Kinzinger. Two recent polls show Halvorson trailing Kinzinger. A February We Ask America poll had Kinzinger leading Halvorson 42% to 30%.[186] A March Public Opinion Strategies poll had Kinzinger leading Halvorson 44% to 38%.[187] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[61]
  • Illinois's 17th congressional district: Democrat Phil Hare is the incumbent second-term congressman running for re-election. Hare was elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote and was unopposed in 2008. Republican Bobby Schilling is the challenger. Democrats carried the district in each of the last three presidential elections. A February 2010 poll showed Hare leading Schilling 39% to 32%, with 26% undecided.[188] A blog post by conservative news magazine National Review called the race competitive, saying, "This is not a seat that has been on most analysts' lists of likely competitive races."[189] Schilling outraised Hare in individual contributions in the fourth quarter of 2009, raising $53,567 to Hare's $49,420.[190] Out of 64,141 total votes cast in each party for the February 2nd Illinois primary, Hare took 32,496 votes (50.66%) to Schilling's 31,645 (49.34%).[191][192]

Indiana

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2010
  • Indiana's 5th congressional district: Republican incumbent Dan Burton defeated former Marion County Coroner John McGoff in the Republican primary 52-45 percent in 2008, leading some to consider him vulnerable to a primary challenge. As result, Burton is increasing his fundraising and announced he will run for reelection.[197] Former Republican candidate Brose McVey, Indiana Republican Party Executive Director Luke Messer, State Representative Mike Murphy, and 2008 primary challenger John McGoff have all formally announced their intention to run.[198] A Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Burton leading in the Republican primary with 43% of the vote against Messer in second with 9%, McVey and McGoff each with 8%, Murphy with 4%, and teacher Andy Lyons in last with 2%. Twenty-six percent of likely voters were still undecided according to the poll.[199] The east-central Indiana district, which includes suburban Hamilton County and Hancock County, and parts of Indianapolis itself, gave John McCain 59% of the vote in 2008.[200] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17).[61]
  • Indiana's 8th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Brad Ellsworth is expected to run for the open senate seat of Evan Bayh. This opens up a competitive race in this district, which supported the Presidential bids of Republicans George W. Bush and John McCain. The Republican nominee will be decided from a crowded primary field. The Democratic party leadership will need to name a successor nominee for Ellsworth. McCain won 51% in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+8). Cook's prediction of an 8-percent Republican advantage (54-46%) would represent an 18.7% swing towards Republicans in this district from the 2008 result.[61]
  • Indiana's 9th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Baron Hill has won in this district since 1998, except for in 2004, when he lost to Republican Mike Sodrel by 1,425 votes. Hill narrowly regained his seat from Sodrel in 2006 and won another race with Sodrel in 2008 by a wider margin. However, Sodrel will seek another rematch, and he will be challenged in the primary by attorney Todd Young.[201] This southeastern Indiana district includes Bloomington and New Albany.[202] John McCain narrowly carried the district with less than 50% of the vote in 2008. In the most recent polling, Hill leads Sodrel 43% to 42% according to a Sodrel poll.[203](Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[61]

Iowa

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa, 2010

Kansas

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas, 2010

Kentucky

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Kentucky, 2010

Louisiana

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Louisiana, 2010

Maine

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Maine, 2010

Maryland

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Maryland, 2010

Massachusetts

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Massachusetts, 2010

Michigan

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan, 2010
  • Michigan's 1st congressional district: Ten-term Democratic incumbent Bart Stupak announced on April 9, 2010, that he would retire from the House and start a new career. This comes weeks after he was an integral part of getting the health care bill passed. He had previously held out, along with about twelve other Democrats, due to his pro-life position and his concern that the bill would fund abortions, but he announced that his group and President Obama had reached a compromise that would allow them to vote for the bill. This did not sit well with many opponents of the bill, and many Tea Party members, among others, started campaigning against him. He announced his retirement just as many Tea Party members were going to descend on the Upper Peninsula in protest of Stupak's support. Barack Obama narrowly carried the district with 50% of the vote in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3)

Minnesota

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, 2010

Mississippi

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Mississippi, 2010

Missouri

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri, 2010

Montana

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Montana, 2010

Nebraska

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska, 2010

Nevada

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada, 2010

New Hampshire

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire, 2010

New Jersey

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in New Jersey, 2010

New Mexico

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico, 2010

New York

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in New York, 2010
  • New York's 1st congressional district: In 2008, Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop was reelected with 58% against an unknown opponent. This year, he will face a challenge from wealthy businessman Randy Altschuler and former attorney George Demos.[308] Bishop received some adverse press when a June 23 town hall meeting in Setauket drew some 200 protesters who were angry at Bishop's vote for the cap and trade bill and federal bailouts and the meeting grew so vocal that Bishop had to be escorted to his car by five county policemen.[309] This district, on eastern Suffolk County includes The Hamptons, Smithtown, and Brookhaven, narrowly backed Barack Obama with 51% of the vote in 2008.[310] In the most recent polling, Bishop holds a statistically insignificant 47% to 45% lead over Altschuler[311] (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[61]
  • New York's 23rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Bill Owens won a special election in 2009 by 48.7% to 46.5% (3,024 votes)[322] over a third party candidate, Conservative Doug Hoffman, after Republican Dierdre Scozzafava suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens less than three days before the election. While Obama won a majority of the district's 2008 presidential votes, Democratic candidate Owens failed to secure a majority in the 2009 election. The district has rarely embraced Democratic congressional candidates; Republicans had been elected continuously since the mid-1800s, and in three of the previous six congressional elections the district's Conservative Party candidate received more votes than the Democratic Party candidate. With less than a year before the 2010 election, a November 6, 2009 newspaper in Owen's district carried the headline "Owens Breaks 4 Campaign Promises in first hour in Congress,"[323] referring primarily to Owens's announced support and eventual vote for House Resolution 3962, the health care reform bill. Owens will face a challenge from whoever is nominated by the Republicans: Hoffman who is running again, or Assemblyman Will Barclay. Franklin County Legislator Paul Maroun and businessman Matt Doheny are other potential Republican candidates.[324] This northern New York district includes Watertown, Plattsburgh, and Oswego. Barack Obama carried the district with 52% in 2008.[325] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[61]

North Carolina

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina, 2010

North Dakota

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota, 2010
  • North Dakota's at-large congressional district: Since first being elected in 1992, incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy has won reelection, sometimes with difficulty, but usually by comfortable margins. Republicans say this year will be different. Republicans running against him include state Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer, state Representative Rick Berg, and former University of Mary football coach Paul Schaffner. A February 12 poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports shows shows all three running competitively, with Pomeroy polling under 50% of the vote [22]. McCain won in North Dakota with 53% of the vote in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+10).[61]

Ohio

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio, 2010

Oklahoma

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma, 2010

Oregon

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Oregon, 2010

Pennsylvania

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2010


Rhode Island

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Rhode Island, 2010

South Carolina

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in South Carolina, 2010

South Dakota

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota, 2010

Tennessee

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee, 2010

Texas

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Texas, 2010

Utah

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Utah, 2010

Vermont

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Vermont, 2010

Virginia

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Virginia, 2010
  • Virginia's 5th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Tom Perriello unseated Republican Virgil Goode by 727 votes in 2008. Six Republicans have announced their candidacies so far: Educator and Republican activist Feda Kidd Morton, private real estate investor Laurence Verga, Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, state Senator Robert Hurt, businessman Ron Ferrin, and Michael McPadden.[438] Assembly line worker Bradley Rees, who had originally filed to run as a Republican, said he will instead run on the Conservative Party ticket.[439] The district includes much of south-central Virginia including the cities of Danville and Charlottesville. A poll conducted in February by Public Policy Polling showed that in a hypothetical general election contest, Perriello and Hurt were tied with 44% each, this is even despite the fact that Perriello had a disapproval rating slightly higher than his approval and supported the Democratic House Healthcare bill which 52% of his constituents opposed.[440] McCain won 51% here in 2008.[441] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[61]

Washington

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Washington, 2010

West Virginia

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia, 2010

Wisconsin

Main article: United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin, 2010

Wyoming

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming, 2010

American Samoa

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in American Samoa, 2010

District of Columbia

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in the District of Columbia, 2010

Guam

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in Guam, 2010

Northern Mariana Islands

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in the Northern Mariana Islands, 2010

U.S. Virgin Islands

Main article: United States House of Representatives election in the U.S. Virgin Islands, 2010

See also

United States Senate elections, 2010
United States House of Representatives

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