Ukrainian crisis

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The Ukrainian Crisis is the collective name for the 2013–14 Euromaidan protests associated with emergent social movement of integration of Ukraine into the European Union, the subsequent February 2014 Ukrainian revolution and the ensuing pro-Russian unrest.[1]

The crisis began on 21 November 2013, when then-president Viktor Yanukovych suspended preparations for the implementation of an association agreement with the European Union. The decision sparked mass protests from proponents of the agreement. The protests, in turn, precipitated a revolution that led to Yanukovych's ousting in February 2014. The ousting sparked unrest in the largely Russophone eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, from where Yanukovych had drawn most of his support. Subsequently, an ensuing political crisis developed after Russia invaded said regions and annexed the then-autonomous Ukrainian region of Crimea in March 2014. As Russia's invasion emboldened the Russophone Ukrainians already in upheaval, the unrest in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts evolved into a war against the post-revolutionary Ukrainian government. As that conflict progressed, the Russophone Ukrainian opposition turned into a pro-Russian insurgency, often supported and assisted by the Russian military and its special forces.[2][3]

Euromaidan and revolution[edit]

Despite being an independent country since 1991, Ukraine has been perceived by Russia as being part of its social and economic sphere of interest. Iulian Chifu and his co-authors claim that in regard to Ukraine, Russia pursues a modernized version of the Brezhnev Doctrine on "limited sovereignty", which dictates that the sovereignty of Ukraine cannot be larger than that of the Warsaw Pact prior to the demise of the Soviet sphere of influence.[4] This claim is based on statements of Russian leaders that possible integration of Ukraine into NATO would jeopardize Russia's national security.[4]

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, both nations retained very close ties. At the same time, there were several sticking points, most importantly Ukraine's significant nuclear arsenal, which Ukraine agreed to abandon in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on the condition that Russia (and the other signatories) would issue an assurance against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. In 1999, Russia was one of signatories of Charter for European Security, where it "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve";[5] both would prove worthless in 2014.[6]

Ukraine became gripped by unrest when the Ukrainian government suspended preparations for signing the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement with the European Union on 21 November 2013, to maintain its economic relations with Russia.[7] An organised political movement known as 'Euromaidan' demanded closer ties with the European Union, and the ousting of Yanukovych.[8] This movement was ultimately successful, culminating in the February 2014 revolution, which removed Yanukovych and his government.[9]

On 24 November 2013, clashes between protesters and police began. After a few days of demonstrations an increasing number of university students joined the protests.[10] The Euromaidan has been characterised as an event of major political symbolism for the European Union itself, particularly as "the largest ever pro-European rally in history."[11]

During 24 January 2014, western Ukrainian cities such as Ivano-Frankivsk, and Chernivtsi had protesters seize regional government buildings in protest of president Viktor Yanukovych. In Ivano-Frankivsk, nearly 1,500 protesters occupied the regional government building and barricaded themselves inside the building The city of Chernivtsi saw crowds of protesters storm the governors office while police officers protected the building. Uzhgorod also had regional offices blockaded, and in the western city of Lviv barricades were being erected just after previously seizing the governor's office.[12]

The protests continued alongside heavy police presence,[13] regularly sub-freezing temperatures, and snow. Escalating violence from government forces in the early morning of 30 November caused the level of protests to rise, with 400,000–800,000 protesters, according to Russia's opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, demonstrating in Kyiv on the weekends of 1 December and 8 December.[14] In the preceding weeks, protest attendance had fluctuated from 50,000 to 200,000 during organised rallies.[15][16] Violent riots took place 1 December and 19 January through 25 January in response to police brutality and government repression.[17] Starting 23 January, several Western Ukrainian Oblast (province) Governor buildings and regional councils were occupied in a revolt by Euromaidan activists.[18] In the Russophone cities of Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk, protesters also tried to take over their local government building, and were met with considerable force from both police and government supporters.[18]

2014 pro-Russian unrest[edit]

President Yanukovych was forced to flee on 23 February 2014, and protests by pro-Russian and anti-revolution activists began in the largely Russophone region of Crimea.[19] These were followed by demonstrations in cities across eastern and southern Ukraine, including Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Odessa.

Elections in Ukraine after Euromaidan[edit]

Results of the 2014 Ukrainian presidential election by electoral district:
 Petro Poroshenko
 Mykhailo Dobkin
 Election was not held due to the War in Donbass
 Election was not held due to the Annexation of Crimea

Since 2014, multiple elections were held across Ukraine. The first election held since the ousting of President Yanukovych was the 25 May presidential election, which resulted in the election of Petro Poroshenko as president of Ukraine. In the Donbass region, only 20% of polling stations were open due to threats of violence by pro-Russian separatist insurgents.[20] Of the 2,430 planned polling stations in the region, only 426 remained open for polling.[20]

As the war in Donbass continued, the first post-revolutionary parliamentary elections in Ukraine were held on 26 October 2014.[21] Once again, separatists stymied voting in the areas that they controlled. They held their own elections, internationally unrecognised and in violation of the Minsk Protocol peace process, on 2 November 2014.[22]

On 25 October 2015, local elections took place in Ukraine.[23] In the Donbass region the elections were held only throughout parts of the region, separatists stymied voting in the areas that they controlled. A second round of voting for the election of mayors in cities with more than 90,000 residents where no candidate gained more than 50% of the votes were held on 15 November 2015.[24][25]

Donbass general elections were held on 11 November 2018, by the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.[26]

Results of the second round of the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election by electoral district:
 Volodymyr Zelensky
 Petro Poroshenko
 Election was not held due to the Russo-Ukrainian War

The 2019 Ukrainian presidential election was held on 31 March and 21 April in a two-round system. There were a total of 39 candidates for the election on the ballot. The 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia and the occupation of parts of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast prevented around 12% of eligible voters from participating in the election. As no candidate received an absolute majority of the vote, a second round was held between the top two candidates, Volodymyr Zelensky, who played the role of Ukraine's president in a popular television comedy and the incumbent president, Petro Poroshenko, on 21 April 2019. According to the Central Election Commission, Zelensky won the second round with 73.22% of the votes.[27][28]

Snap elections to the Ukrainian parliament were held on 21 July 2019. Originally scheduled to be held at the end of October, these elections were brought forward after newly inaugurated President Volodymyr Zelensky dissolved parliament on 21 May 2019, during his inauguration. The election result was the one-party majority, a novelty in Ukraine, for President Zelensky's Servant of the People party with 254 seats. Out of 225 constituencies, 26 were suspended due to the March 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia and the ongoing occupation of parts of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast.

The 2020 Ukrainian local elections will take place on Sunday 25 October 2020. In the election deputies of oblast, raion and municipality councils will be elected and elections for city and town mayors will be held. No elections will be held in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.[29]

Effects of the crisis[edit]

The crisis has had many effects, both domestic[citation needed] and international.[30] According to an October 2014 estimate by the World Bank, the economy of Ukraine contracted by 8% during the year 2014 as a result of the crisis.[31] Economic sanctions imposed on Russia by western nations contributed to the collapse in value of the Russian rouble, and the resulting Russian financial crisis.[32]

The war in Donbass caused a coal shortage in Ukraine, as the Donbass region had been the chief source of coal for power stations across the country. Furthermore, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station was forced to close down one of its reactors after an accident. The combination of these two problems led to rolling blackouts across Ukraine during December 2014.[33]

Additionally, due to the Ukrainian crisis, a construction of a new pipeline in Turkey with an annual capacity around 63 billion cubic metres (bcm) was proposed, so as to carry natural gas to Europe while completely bypassing Ukraine as a traditional transit hub for Russian gas.[34]

Progress on implementing reforms in post-revolutionary Ukraine has been said to be slow. According to a BBC report in February 2016, Ukraine remained gripped by corruption, and little progress had been made in improving the economy. Low-level fighting continued in the Donbass. The report also said that there was talk of a "Third Maidan" to force the government to take action to remedy the crisis.[35]

An IMF four-year loan program worth about $17.5 billion was agreed in eight tranches over 2015 and 2016, subject to conditions regarding economic reforms.[36] Analysts disputed that the $17.5 billion represented a 'new' bailout, noting that the IMF's announcement amounted to making good on "old promises, rather than offering any new cash."[30] However, due to lack of progress on reforms, only two tranches worth $6.7 billion were paid in 2015. A third tranche of $1.7 billion may be paid in June 2016 subject to the bringing into law of 19 further reform measures.[37][38] In May 2016, the IMF mission chief for Ukraine stated that the reduction of corruption was a key test for continued international support.[38]

Since about 2015, there has been a growing number of Ukrainians working in the European Union, particularly Poland. Eurostat reported that 662,000 Ukrainians received EU residence permits in 2017, with 585,439 being to Poland. The head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine has estimated that up to 9 million Ukrainians work abroad for some part of the year, and 3.2 million have regular full-time work abroad with most not planning to return. World Bank statistics show that money remittances back to Ukraine have roughly doubled from 2015 to 2018, worth about 4% of GDP.[39][40]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ German, Tracey; Karagiannis, Emmanuel (2018). "Introduction". The Ukrainian Crisis: The Role of, and Implications for, Sub-State and Non-State Actors. Routledge. ISBN 9781351737920.
  2. ^ Higgins, Andrew; Kramer, Andrew E. (18 April 2014). "Pro-Russian Insurgents Balk at Terms of Pact in Ukraine". The New York Times. Retrieved 7 April 2018. Doubts about the Kremlin's readiness to push pro-Russian militants to surrender their guns have been strengthened by its insistence that it has no hand in or control over the separatist unrest, which Washington and Kiev believe is the result of a covert Russian operation involving, in some places, the direct action of special forces.
  3. ^ Tsvetkova, Maria (10 May 2015). "Special Report: Russian soldiers quit over Ukraine". Reuters. Retrieved 7 April 2018. Evidence for Russians fighting in Ukraine – Russian army equipment found in the country, testimony from soldiers' families and from Ukrainians who say they were captured by Russian paratroopers – is abundant.
  4. ^ a b Iulian Chifu; Oazu Nantoi; Oleksandr Sushko (2009). "Russia–Georgia War of August 2008: Ukrainian Approach" (PDF). The Russian Georgian War: A trilateral cognitive institutional approach of the crisis decision-making process. Bucharest: Editura Curtea Veche. p. 181. ISBN 978-973-1983-19-6. Retrieved 21 February 2016.
  5. ^ "Istanbul Document 1999". Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. 19 November 1999. Retrieved 21 July 2015.
  6. ^ nbc 18 March 2014 [1], ukrainesolidaritycampaign the oligarchic rebellion in the donbas
  7. ^ "A Ukraine City Spins Beyond the Government's Reach". The New York Times. 15 February 2014.
  8. ^ Balmforth, Richard (12 December 2013). "Kiev protesters gather, EU dangles aid promise". Reuters. Archived from the original on 20 April 2014. Retrieved 10 April 2014.
  9. ^ "Ukraine Opposition Vows To Continue Struggle After Yanukovych Offer". Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 25 January 2014. Retrieved 10 April 2014.
  10. ^ Students in Ukraine threaten indefinite national strike, Euronews (26 November 2013)
  11. ^ "Ukraine Offers Europe Economic Growth and More". The New York Times. 12 December 2013. Retrieved 21 January 2014.
  12. ^ "BBC News - Ukraine unrest: Protesters storm regional offices".
  13. ^ Protests continue in Kiev ahead of Vilnius EU summit, Euronews (27 November 2013)
  14. ^ "Ukraine's capital Kiev gripped by huge pro-EU demonstration". BBC News. 8 December 2013. Retrieved 8 December 2013.
  15. ^ Olzhas Auyezov and Jack Stubbs (22 December 2013). "Ukraine opposition urges more protests, forms political bloc". Reuters. Retrieved 24 January 2014.
  16. ^ Ukraine pro-Europe protesters hold first big rally of 2014, Reuters (12 January 2014)
  17. ^ "No Looting or Anarchy in this Euromaidan Revolution". Kyiv Post. Retrieved 24 January 2014.
  18. ^ a b Ukraine protests 'spread' into Russia-influenced east, BBC News (26 January 2014)
  19. ^ "Ukraine crisis fuels secession calls in pro-Russian south". The Guardian. 24 February 2014. Archived from the original on 1 December 2008.
  20. ^ a b "Poroshenko Declares Victory in Ukraine Presidential Election", The Wall Street Journal (25 May 2014)
  21. ^ Ukraine President Poroshenko Calls Snap General Election, Bloomberg News (25 August 2014)
  22. ^ "Russia calls for talks with Kiev after separatist elections". The Guardian. 3 November 2014. Archived from the original on 8 December 2014. Retrieved 3 November 2014.
  23. ^ "Local elections on October 25 to be held in 73 unified communities – CEC". Interfax-Ukraine. 28 August 2015. Retrieved 5 July 2018.
  24. ^ (in Ukrainian) In the CEC released official estimates of turnout, Ukrayinska Pravda (16 November 2015)
  25. ^ Interfax-Ukraine (2 October 2015). "Local election runoff in Ukraine's major cities should be held no later than Nov. 15". Kyiv Post. Retrieved 5 July 2018.
  26. ^ "Separatists win vote in Ukraine rebel regions by big margins". The Washington Post. 12 November 2018. Retrieved 17 November 2018.
  27. ^ "Comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy has won 73% of the vote in Ukraine's election, an exit poll suggests". The Independent. 21 April 2019. Retrieved 22 April 2019.
  28. ^ Karmanau, Yuras. "Comedian who plays president on TV headed for landslide victory in Ukraine's presidential election". chicagotribune.com. Retrieved 22 April 2019.
  29. ^ Rada appoints next elections to local self-govt bodies for Oct 25, Interfax-Ukraine (15 July 2020)
  30. ^ a b Mamlyuk, Boris N. (6 July 2015). "The Ukraine Crisis, Cold War II, and International Law". 16 (3). The German Law Journal. Retrieved 12 September 2016. Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  31. ^ "Ukraine economy to contract by 8% in 2014: World Bank". Yahoo News. Agence France-Presse. 2 October 2014. Retrieved 13 January 2015.
  32. ^ "'We are hardly surviving': As oil and the ruble drop, ordinary Russians face growing list of problems". Financial Post. Reuters. 1 January 2015. Archived from the original on 2 January 2015. Retrieved 13 January 2015.
  33. ^ Ukraine turns off reactor at its most powerful nuclear plant after 'accident', The Independent (28 December 2014)
    https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/25/world/europe/ukraine-briefly-cuts-power-to-crimea-amid-dispute-with-russia-over-nato.html?_r=0 Ukraine Briefly Cuts Power to Crimea Amid Feud With Russia Over NATO], New York Times (24 December 2014)
    Coal import to help avoid rolling blackouts in Ukraine — energy minister Archived 8 January 2015 at the Wayback Machine, ITAR-TASS (31 December 2014)
    Rolling blackouts in Ukraine after nuclear plant accident, Mashable (3 December 2014)
    Ukraine to Import Coal From ‘Far Away’ as War Curtails Mines, Bloomberg News (31 December 2014)
  34. ^ "Russia to Shift Ukraine Gas Transit to Turkey as EU Cries Foul". Bloomberg. 14 January 2015. Archived from the original on 15 January 2015. Retrieved 15 January 2015.
  35. ^ David Stern (5 February 2016). "Ukraine teeters a few steps from chaos". BBC News. Retrieved 6 February 2016.
  36. ^ "Ukraine may get USD 1.7 bln from IMF by mid-year - Moody's". Ukraine Today. 13 May 2016. Retrieved 20 May 2016.
  37. ^ "What Ukraine must do to get another $1.7 billion IMF loan". Kyiv Post. 14 May 2016. Retrieved 20 May 2016.
  38. ^ a b Alessandra Prentice (18 May 2016). "Ukraine, IMF agree terms to resume financial support - IMF". Reuters. Retrieved 20 May 2016.
  39. ^ Bershidsky, Leonid (20 February 2019). "Eastern Europe Feeds on a Shrinking Ukraine". Bloomberg. Retrieved 24 June 2019.
  40. ^ Kiryukhin, Denys (14 May 2019). "Losing Brains and Brawn: Outmigration from Ukraine". Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Retrieved 24 June 2019.